A new focused effort by a team of researchers analyzed 26 decades of hurricane activity, covering the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) through 2012 for the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico water regions.
As most scientists agree, be they orthodox or skeptic, the world has been modestly warming since the end of the LIA.
Yet the proponents of global warming alarmism "science" have claimed that severe weather, such as hurricanes, has increased dramatically due to this rather modest warming.
These expert claims were primarily based on simulations from climate models (and less so on the actual empirical evidence) which has become a sure fire methodology of producing bass-ackwards fake science.
This new empirical study presents the evidence from the last 260 years of hurricane activity and the result is irrefutable as the adjacent chart reveals. Not only has hurricane activity not increased across the wide areas examined, the activity has actually been on a slow declining trend.
"In their intriguing analysis published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, the four-member research team of Rojo-Garibaldi et al. developed a new database of historical hurricane occurrences in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, spanning twenty-six decades over the period 1749 to 2012. Statistical analysis of the record revealed "the hurricane number is actually decreasing in time," which finding is quite stunning...as the Mexican research team indicates, "when analyzing the entire time series built for this study, i.e., from 1749 to 2012, the linear trend in the number of hurricanes is decreasing"."
What truly makes this a head-exploding study for celebrity "scientists" is not only the fact the findings are the opposite of what they predicted, but that this Mexican scientific team tied the decline to natural solar events, not human CO2 emissions. (See more information on the study.)
But after a natural warming ENSO 'spike,' such as the one covering the 2015-2016 period, Earth's frequent natural reaction is to enter a cooling phase, which this time apparently commenced after the peak in February 2016.
The adjacent chart reveals the exact same lower troposphere (LT) warming and cooling spikes as the prior chart, but using a different plotting style.
This different style does not depict as much detail regarding the actual monthly temperatures as the earlier chart did. This style chart leaves a stronger impression that monthly global warming has been on a continuous upswing, instead of the actual frequent ups/downs of monthly climate temperature change.
For this chart, we changed from a simple 12-month average for both CO2 and temperatures to a 36-month average for both. In addition, a linear temperature trend curve (see dashed maroon line) has been added.
#1. As in the prior article, this chart indicates a long-term global warming trend of 1.07°C by 2100AD - this includes the most recent warming phase of ENSO. [Linear trends are not predictions - they have no predictive power since over the short-term they can change dramatically.]
#2. The chart's 36-month simple moving average (red curve) of LT temperatures indicates an extended pause - i.e. the 'Hiatus' - in overall global warming, from approximately mid-1999 to mid-2015.
#3. The chart's CO2 36-month moving average of ppm levels reveals a continuous linear growth status, whereas the 36-month satellite temp average is anything but.
The datasets used for this chart and the prior article's chart are exactly the same. However, the plot styles are different providing a different context of the cooling/warming of global temperatures. The different context is valuable and there will be future 'C3' charts depicting different plot styles (providing additional context for the reader) using the same dataset and sub-datasets.
Note: Excel used to calculate averages, trends, and to chart the dataset plots. Lower troposphere (LT) temperature satellite datasets - RSS and UAH - an equal weighting monthly average dataset used in chart's plot; NOAA's atmospheric CO2 dataset.
The gold-standard for climate science temperature measurements is produced by the advanced, 24/7 monitoring accomplished by orbiting satellites.
Unlike the deployed small number of geographically-sparse surface thermometers, satellites essentially cover the entire world on a continuous basis.
And unlike earthly thermometers, which more often than not reside within known hot-spots, such as metro airports and urban heat sinks of concrete, asphalt and steel, satellite measurements are not affected by human structures, not by transit activities, not by industrial production, and not by power generation.
Satellites are the only available technology scientists have that truly measure temperatures in a global fashion, without all the inherent biases influencing surface-based thermometers.
This unrivaled, sophisticated technology has been performing its empirical measurement duties over the last 38 full years, which the adjacent chart is a plot of. Each month's temperature average is shown by an orange circle (each circle is the average of the two major lower troposphere (LT) temperature satellite datasets - RSS and UAH). The red curve is a moving 12-month simple average of the monthly datapoints.
In addition, the chart includes a plot of NOAA's monthly atmospheric CO2 level (see black dots) and its moving 12-month simple average (grey curve with arrowhead).
#1. As measured, the monthly CO2 levels continue to steadily increase at a linear rate, which if maintained, will almost reach an atmospheric level of 555ppm by 2100AD.
#2. As measured, the temperature trend for the last 38 years (starting with January 1979) indicates an increase of 1.07°C by 2100AD, if that trend is maintained.
#3. As measured, the global average temperatures sporadically gyrate up/down, which the red curve clearly depicts.
#4. As measured, there are very obvious significant warming/cooling spikes that took place in the recent past.
#5. As measured, global LT temperatures spiked warmer during the 2015-2016 period, achieving the highest recorded temperature during February 2016, exceeding the previous high from April 1998 by some +0.12°C. March 2016 was the only other month exceeding the April 1998 measurement (approximately by+0.005°C).
#6. As measured, global temperatures typically spike down after a strong spike up.
#7. As measured, LT global temperatures have declined considerably from the February 2016 high to the year's low of December 2016 - an average global temperature that is below both the December 1987 and December 1998 global temperatures (see magenta-tinted circles), respectively 29 and 18 years ago.
#8. As measured, this gold-standard empirical evidence reveals that only 12% of global LT temperature datapoints since December 1987 were higher.
#9. As measured, the combined RSS and UAH dataset averages show an extended pause in the overall warming - i.e. the hiatus - that stretched across a span from about 1999 to the beginning of 2015.
The below points should be viewed as opinions, or if one wants to be fancy about it, conclusions and assessments. While they are opinions, the actual empirical evidence from the satellites - the climate science gold-standard - is quite supportive.
Regarding that last point, consensus climate science has proposed a hypothesis on the claim that climate physics dictates that rising atmospheric CO2 levels will warm the atmosphere substantially, thus causing a positive feedback loop, which will then continuously accelerate warming until a tipping point of runaway temperatures take place, turning Earth into the next Venus. This one simple sentence is a nutshell summation of the supposed complex climate physics of "dangerous" global warming that has actually been tested.
The result of that 38-year long real test is that the gold-standard satellite empirical evidence clearly invalidates this hypothesis of positive feedback(s) leading to runaway, catastrophic warming.
Fortunately for the world and its populace, the climate science dogmatic consensus is robustly without any scientific empirical merit. It may indeed get warmer but the catastrophic predictions are not connected to science reality.
Note: Excel used to calculate averages, trends, and to chart the dataset plots.
It's been widely documented that just like today's mainstream news media, science has gone down the rabbit hole of fakery, lies, deceptions, omissions, trickery, and just plain pure fraud in order to pursue favored political agendas.
Fortunately, the invaluable Retractionwatch.com site is dedicated to the dissemination of information regarding the growth of scientific misdeeds.
Related, over the last 8 years, deceptive-science by the climate "expert" elites has also grown to unmatched levels.
With the start of the Trump administration only a few weeks away, bringing in a new era of leadership unlikely to condone further fraud (and in fact may pursue investigations of), it has the establishment climate science truly running scared.
Over the last few years, there have been more than a few interesting articles about the anti-science behavior of scientists and the media - topics that the below article links touch on in a variety of ways.
It is unequivocally true that climate change, both mild and extreme, is always happening - paleoclimatology research evidence establishes that.
There is no debate that climate change existed prior to humans' impact on Earth, and will continue regardless of whether human CO2 emissions persist or cease.
Scientists continue to investigate past climate change events to better understand modern climate change, including extreme drought.
Case in point: scientists recently published peer-reviewed research that identified extreme drought periods on Canada's Vancouver Island, specifically the British Columbia Tsable River region.
Their research confirmed that since 1520AD, and prior to the instrumental record, extreme droughts took place that were of equal severity to those of modern droughts.
"Severe summer streamflow droughts are impacting many watersheds on Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Small coastal basins that are the primary water source for most communities and essential to Pacific salmon populations have been particularly affected...Explaining 63% of the instrumental streamflow variability...Our findings suggest that since 1520, 21 droughts occurred that were more extreme than recent “severe” events like those in 2003 and 2009. Recent droughts are therefore not anomalous relative to the ~400 year pre-instrumental record.....The influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on instrumental and modeled Tsable River summer streamflow is likely linked to the enhanced role of snowmelt in determining summer discharge during cool phases."
Past extreme drought events are clear examples of continuous natural climate change that the modern era cannot escape. Humans do not cause climate change, it just happens.
But "experts" and climate models provide a never-ending loop of sinking and re-floating of a wide assortment of climate change predictions, forecasts and scenarios.
The weather/climate researchers seem unable to embrace the humility and reality that their computer simulation predictions rarely stay afloat for any length of time before being sent down to deep and cold watery graves.
A recent noteworthy example of a failed prediction is the Hurricane Matthew event.
More specifically, climate model output has been predicting that CO2-induced global warming and climate change would produce more frequent, and more intense, cyclones/hurricanes that would continuously terrorize many coastal populations.
Yet those frightening predictions keep doing a 'Titanic' on the expert model forecasts.
And actually, there is a logical reason for that happening: climate models can't predict squat.
Per the latest peer-reviewed scientific research:
"...Camargo and Wing write that (5) "efforts on modeling improvements, from convective parameterizations to new numerical methods and dynamical cores, also need to continue to occur." And "most of all," as they continue, they say that (6) "what is needed is a better theoretical understanding of what sets the frequency of TCs," noting that (7) "we could make much more confident climate change projections if we had a firmer theoretical expectation of what should happen."
"In conclusion, therefore, they state that (8) "despite the recent advances, there is still need for a substantial community effort to improve simulation of TCs in climate models on all time scales."
Essentially, even after burning through multi-billions of taxpayer monies, the models still can't predict squat due to the inescapable fact that experts require a "firmer theoretical expectation of what should happen."
Message to Trump from climate scientists: "We don't know what we're doing but please send more money anyways, ASAP!"
Based on this film, it would appear the anti-Trumpers have a serious case against the new administration's view of catastrophic climate change on snowmen genocide.
Luckily, we can now share this new video with all of skeptical comrades in hopes they can step up and stop Trump's onslaught regarding Obama's green regulations.
This is one snowflake we can't allow to go into meltdown mode. Help the snowman sanctuary campus - be kind and share!
UK's Daily Mail published article that discusses global warming collapse, based on latest empirical evidence being reported by the Met Office Hadley Centre.....the global temperatures have dropped hugely since the 2015-2016 El Nino peak...
The global temperature chart image on the left is from the Daily Mail.
The recent substantial drop in world temperatures is evident. Clearly, the temperature spike caused by the recent El Nino is in the process of being reversed, and quickly with some gusto.
The image on the right represents a plot multiple global per century temperature trends based on the same UK global anomaly dataset used by the Daily Mail to plot absolute temps. The blue 1-year (12-month) trends show the dramatic global warming trend reversal over the most recent months - from a peak in March 2016 to what now amounts to being a significant cooling trend by October 2016.
The other plotted trends for longer periods will eventually follow the direction of the 1-year trend as the slide of future global temperatures from the peak continues.
A note of interest is the fact that none of the different period warming trends plotted exceeded those reached in the past during periods of lower atmospheric CO2. Despite this incredibly powerful El Nino taking place during modern history's period of the highest CO2 levels recorded, the 2015/16 warming trends generated never surpassed those experienced in the past.
Prior global temperature charts.
The 2016 Trump election landslide and Republican down ticket success indicate a strong possibility of a return to common sense and honesty in climate science, as well as a massive voter rejection of Democrats’ climate fear-mongering ... catastrophic global warming skeptics should rejoice......
The popular mandate that Obama and Democrats assumed they had from the American public has been shattered, with a top-to-bottom landslide of the GOP 2016 election victories.
This election, and the cumulative effect of prior ones, has decimated the once major party across the country. They have been reduced to finger-pointing recriminations and internal threats to Democrat cohesion.
They no longer have a supposed mandate, let alone majority voter support, for any of their U.S. national policies, including the recent unilateral climate change regulations and associated anti-growth policies issued/authorized by Democrat politicians.
The 2016 election numbers speak for themselves regarding the decimated state of Democrats and the resurgent GOP:
Based on all the above datapoints, combined with the election map's visual representation, Trump and the GOP totally destroyed any mandate and power base that Democrats once possessed, besides laying waste to Hillary Clinton's presidential aspirations.
The 2016 election outcome significantly reduced the impact of Democrat office holders across the entire country, but with a single exception - the Democrat one-party rule in U.S. major urban centers.
Election results from 2016 do show that Hillary Clinton and the Democrats continue their decades-long dominance (and mismanagement) of the modern urban-plantation areas. These metro geographic area characteristics include: high levels of poverty, huge young person unemployment, significant welfare dependence, massive violent crime outcomes, substantial illegal immigrant populations, and just plain, awful, lousy education performance.
Clinton won 90%4 of this metro constituency (note: these voters really don't care about climate change or honest science - understandably, they just want to simply survive their concrete hellholes on a day-to-day basis).
In contrast to Clinton's urban strongholds, Trump won the entire country with 306 electoral votes9, which clearly indicates his geographical diversity and dominance.
Looked at another way, on Nov. 8, 2016, there were 51 popular elections held (the 50 states, plus the District of Columbia); and Trump won 319 of those popular elections.
Going even more granular, each county in the country held a popular-vote presidential election and Trump won 2,633* of those county elections, while Clinton only won 487* counties.
Unequivocally, there exists an overwhelming and diversified geographic domination by Trump and the GOP - it represents a solid, country-wide mandate.
And all of the above represents a clear refutation of the post-election urban millennial temper tantrums that have produced dangerous, destructive riots plaguing the remaining one-party strongholds of Democrats. In addition, the country-wide success of the GOP and Trump on election day is also clear refutation of Hollywood's and Silicon Valley's wealthy safe-space temper tantrums.
Finally, the left/liberals who thought Hillary Clinton would win in a "landslide" were demanding that Republicans and Trump voters support country unity with the inevitable Hillary win. Yet with roles now reversed, the Democrats choose to promote country disunity by their attempts to reverse the substantial Trump electoral and geographic election wins.
While the Democrat progressive post-election meltdown continues over their massive election loss, GOP leadership needs to immediately focus their own re-energized strength on quickly reversing the economic/business damage that the UN, Obama and the EPA imposed in the name of global warming and climate change.
And with the backing of a strong voter mandate, Republican leaders should absolutely ignore any and all pleas of their Democrat counterparts for climate/energy policy compromise - ahem.....let's hope the stupid party does not fall for that scam again.
Paraphrasing the great words of the legacy-less Obama - "we won," now shut up and enjoy our fossil fuel independence, security and economic growth.
*USA Today and Wikipedia were used in combination to ascertain how many total U.S. counties (including parishes, and counting Alaska as a single county since it is not divided into the familiar county structure). For example, here are the respective links (USA Today and Wikipedia) used for Alabama counties - each state has its own link within these two web publications that list their counties info.
Note: Long-term modest global warming has taken place since the Little Ice Age ending; climate change has been a constant since the beginning of Earth's climate(s) and will continue to take place regardless of human activities.
"Can't predict squat" has become a climate science known ... thus, we have the common climate expert lament: so many predictions, yet so many failures ... but climate science "experts" are not the only ones who litter the public terrain with DOA prediction carcasses.....
The 2016 election Trump again reminded everyone that the vast majority of experts, pundits and journalists are not only terrible at short-term and long-term predictions, but also their failed prognostications usually, and directly, lead to public reactions that would not have occurred otherwise, such as the post-election anti-Trump riots.
As the New York Post cover page shown on the left confirms, the public was completely mislead by the mainstream media regarding Hillary Clinton's supposedly massive soon-to-be landslide election over the hapless Trump.
To compound the consensus expert election idiocy of 2016, many of the same "experts" then predicted that economic disaster would immediately follow this "unexpected" election of Trump. Here are the infamous Chuck Todd of NBC and Paul Krugman of the New York Times providing post-Trump election predictions that were completely without merit - literally, pure mainstream B.S. speculation posing as truth.
Now please note the 5-year Dow Jones Industrial chart depicted above on the right, as of Friday, November 12. Because investors were pleased that Hillary Clinton lost, the market set new records over the 3 days immediately after the election. The Trump unexpected coattails obviously extended beyond just the large GOP gains across the nation from the November 8 election.
Finally, because the experts and the media significantly misinformed the public constantly with Hillary-biased polls, combined with just plain ludicrous Trump fear-mongering, society's most gullible and misinformed Facebook generation went on a rampage with destructive and violent riots.
Simply put, these millennial, anti-democratic terrorist riots, resulting in economic property damage and severely injured innocent bystanders, were directly initiated by false mainstream prophets and a compliant, Hillary-biased media.
The moral of this story? The consensus experts, in almost every field, have an extremely high probability of being wrong, especially the ones pushing biased, agenda-driven doomsday scenarios and outcomes; and, the conclusion is indisputable: they should not be trusted at all by the public.
For the community of catastrophic global warming skeptics, it is a very welcome and enjoyable 'climate change' schadenfreude with Trump's election....
Climate change warriors, social justice warriors, and those pushing the violent and hate-filled Black Lives Matter movement have been politically castrated, so-to-speak.
Truth be told, it is a sweeping climate change of American politics that these intolerant, bullying, and censorship-loving groups in reality brought down upon themselves. The result is a Trumpian 'climate change' that a huge number of Americans welcome.
If it were not for the left/liberal anti-democratic and anti-American policies that these movements represented and pushed on all of us, the final election results may well have been opposite - yes, I believe Trump would have probably lost.
These groups, in combination with the mainstream media, crony-billionaires, wealthy celebrities, and lobbing special interests, have proven to be the voices of extremism that caused Americans to finally say: ENOUGH!
Indeed, Americans have snatched sanity from jaws of political correctness and intolerance.
With that said, a special best-of-luck to this American in his attempts to bring the necessary sanity and empirical reality to the global warming debate and its underlying science and policies.
This is a compilation of recent science/policy headlines regarding climate, energy, environment, medical, health and other topics of science interest. Each headline is clickable, linking to the original source article. Currently, there are an approximate 1,500 science headlines.
Use 'Ctrl F' in your browser and then search for specific words across all the headlines. At the moment, for example, if the word 'arctic' is used as the search term, 45 occurrences are highlighted in headlines by the browser.
This single page compilation is currently updated every 7 to 10 days.
A more frequent updating of headlines can be found at this page; but it only includes 50 headlines at once (thus 'Ctrl F' searches are limited to just those 50 on a displayed page).
This list is updated every 1-3 days. The newest headlines are eventually copied over to the large, single page compilation of headlines.
Both of the above described compilation/list page links are smart phone and tablet browser-friendly.
Extreme weather incidents - i.e. disastrous flooding from extreme precipitation - has always existed ... and well before the introduction of human industrial/consumer CO2 emissions ... the name Noah rings a bell, yes?
Much research has been done on determining the connection between solar activity and weather/climate conditions.
Studies investigating the relationship between the sun and flooding continue to be pursued. The newest research examined solar forcing and the floods of central Europe using river discharge data and varved sediments.
The peer-reviewed findings:
The three researchers discovered that flood frequency in both records is significantly correlated to changes in two types of solar activity," namely, (1) "the solar Schwabe cycle" and (2) "multi-centennial oscillations." And they thus further conclude that (3) "the unexpected direct response of variations in River Ammer flood frequency to changes in solar activity might suggest that the solar top-down mechanism is of particular relevance for hydroclimate extremes.
This study determined that flooding frequency over 5,500 years was tied to solar activity across inter-annual and multi-centennial timescales.
Clearly, CO2 emissions and other human influences are not a prerequisite for extreme precipitation and the resulting flood disasters.
The consensus alarmist-scientist community has again been discomforted with new empirical evidence that confirms the findings of past research done by scientists skeptical of human-caused catastrophic global warming.
The new study, officially published in a publication from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, shows:
"....that water conserved by plants under high CO2 conditions compensates for much of the effect of warmer temperatures, retaining more water on land than predicted in commonly used drought assessments....the implications of plants needing less water with more CO2 in the environment changes assumptions of climate change impacts on agriculture, water resources, wildfire risk, and plant growth..."New satellite observations and improvements in our understanding hydrological cycle have led to significant advances in our ability to model changes in soil moisture," said Randerson. "Unfortunately, using proxy estimates of drought stress can give us misleading results because they ignore well-established principles from plant physiology."."
"Recent studies have estimated that more than 70 percent of our planet will experience more drought as carbon dioxide levels quadruple from pre-industrial levels over about the next 100 years. But when researchers account for changes in plants' water needs, this falls to 37 percent, with bigger differences concentrated in certain regions."
You read that right. The "consensus" scientists were forced to cut almost in half climate models' simulated drought impact on the world's plant life when the actual empirical evidence was properly analyzed.
Of course, despite the contrary findings of this study, the article reminds readers that hypothetical fearmongering from computer simulations is still acceptable, such as:
"Is this good news for climate change? Although the drying may be less extreme than in some current estimates, droughts will certainly increase, researchers said, and other aspects of climate change could have severe effects on vegetation."
It would seem, despite the extreme denial of most anti-CO2 activists and UN bureaucrats, that the climate has always changed, frequently making dramatic shifts.
Even producing big shifts prior to the major morphing to a greenhouse gas emitting industrial/consumer society.
Despite the immense treasure of climate change empirical and anecdotal evidence of time past compiled by dedicated researchers, scientists are still conducting new research to delineate the scope and breadth of past changes.
This latest research, done by a group of European scientists, focused on the Northern Hemisphere's hydroclimatology responses to temperature change over 12 centuries. Their findings included:
"...report that (1,2) "proxy evidence does not support the tendency in simulations for wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier in a warmer climate," that (3) their "hydroclimate reconstruction does not support a general unprecedented intensification of the hydrological cycle in the twentieth century, associated with both more extreme wet and dry conditions, as simulated by an ensemble of models," and that (4) "this finding is in line with recent analyses of instrumental data reporting limited evidence for an intensification of wet and dry anomalies under current global warming,"." Nature 532: 10.1038/nature17418.
In summary, their extensive analysis of the hydrological evidence does not comport with the simulated findings of the most advanced CO2-centric climate models available (surprise, surprise).
Clearly, the accompanying graph depicts the never ending condition of natural climate change, providing further proof that human fossil fuel emissions - and Exxon - are not to blame.
Prior articles on historical climate change.
MIT informs us that the "experts" are even clueless as to how much oil is being globally stored.
Yet, supposedly, the experts know how much fossil fuel is burned each year by each country, as well as supposedly knowing how many metric tonnes of CO2 emissions are being emitted to atmosphere.
Color it highly doubtful.
One thinks that the "settled" science of fossil fuel global warming - i.e. climate change - is based on a "huge amount of guesswork" and is actually very unsettled.
The prediction failures regarding the Arctic polar region being ice-free, and the continuing good health and resilient, growing population of polar bears, just really grates on some science "journalists."
"Up in the Arctic, things are getting slushy. But some polar bears are refusing to change their ways. Instead of compromising on where they spend their time, they’re clinging to the icy habitats they’ve always loved. As those habitats keep shrinking, though, the bears will eventually find things too crowded and uncomfortable to ignore."
Buuuuut....it would seem those stubborn bears just keep ignoring their human scientific betters whom keep predicting the demise of polar bear species.
“Polar bears are sticking to using the same type of habitat conditions even while sea ice disappears,” says lead author Ryan Wilson of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. They still love regions with shallow water, a high but variable concentration of sea ice, and not much land-bound ice. He thinks that’s because—for now—they can still eat....So these polar bears seem to be doing fine without changing their habits."
Buuuuut....just wait until next season warns the Discover Magazine's species helicopter-parent nanny.
"As the iciest spots continue to shrink, more animals will have to either crowd into them or move onto solid land during the summer. They can’t stay stuck in their ways forever. These carefree polar bears will soon experience the same negative effects that their neighbors have, Wilson says: “It’s likely only a matter of time.”
Prior species-extinction articles.
For years they predicted (i.e. carelessly speculated) that a warming climate would increase the incidence of the nasty dengue fever disease.
But now researchers are reporting that the incidence of the disease could actually be reduced with warming climate change.
“While climate change generally poses a major threat to humanity, it also may reduce the incidence of dengue in some areas,” said Dr Harley, an epidemiology researcher at the ANU Research School of Population Health. ... The findings are also relevant to other mosquito-borne viruses including Zika because the mosquitoes that carry dengue also transmit the Zika virus. ... “There is significant concern in countries on the margin of the tropical areas where dengue is mainly found, that with global warming dengue and other mosquito-borne viruses such as Zika will encroach and become common,” Dr Harley said. ... “Previous projections have suggested that climate change will increase transmission of mosquito-borne diseases globally. ... “Our work, using a mathematical model based on Queensland conditions, suggests that dengue transmission might decrease with greater warming.”
Naturally, this is good news that all global warming alarmists should embrace, with the exception of a single caveat regarding the study that should give pause. This latest flip-flop was based on a computer model, which is quite simply, nothing but simulated research using limited empirical evidence.
Partisan media can influence viewers to reject facts (this from a media outlet pushing catastrophic global warming propaganda)
Is it junk science?; biased?; flim-flam?; fraudulent?; simply bad?; lazy?; fishy science?; or just normal "whatever" science.
The daily scientific crapola appears to exist way beyond the narrow domain of orthodoxy climate science, unfortunately.
"We all know bad papers are out there. When you read them, you’re left scratching your head and wondering, “How on earth did these pass peer-review?” Worse still, there are “ugly” science articles, where the scientific method goes by the wayside and data are cherry-picked, misinterpreted or manipulated to justify a political or ideological agenda or to undermine science that interferes with that agenda.
Robeck et al. (2015) is a recent example of ugly science. The authors (three of whom work for SeaWorld, one for the Minnesota Zoo) compared survivorship and longevity of orcas in captivity versus the wild. They stated that “the estimated ages assigned to [free-ranging killer whales]…were inaccurate” and “Our analysis supports a proposed longevity of between 60 and 70 years for females and 50 and 60 years for males…substantially less than the longevity of 80-90 years for females and 60-70 years for males…previously suggested” (p. 1066, emphasis added). This paper also dismissed decades of life history table analyses that have long been accepted within the scientific community, stating that they were of “limited value” (p. 1059).
With these conclusions, Robeck et al. effectively tossed 43 years of research by a number of respected orca biologists under the bus."
As has often been the case, official climate science is now agreeing with what skeptics identified several years ago: Antarctica is not warming.
The prestigious science consensus journal Nature has published a new peer-reviewed study that counters what that journal has been reporting about Antarctica for at least the last decade.
This should not come as a surprise to the observant.
The global warming doomsday scientists have relied on a compliant mainstream media to claim that their opinions represent the supposed 97% of settled science - an indisputable "consensus" that should not be debated. But, as in almost every scientific endeavor, the science is never, ever settled.
Yet the climate science orthodoxy continues to push the catastrophic scenario that Earth's major coastal and island regions will be submerged due to the melting of the polar ice sheets found in Antarctica. Unfortunately for the consensus alarmism, this new study indicates Antarctica's canary in the global warming fearmongering-fable has actually been cooling over the last 20 years, not warming (see chart).
Per an article on the study:
"Natural variability was responsible both for the decades-long warming since the 1950s and more recent cooling, according to research published today in Nature. The research, led by John Turner from the British Antarctic Survey, said while the start of Antarctic Peninsula cooling in 1998 had coincided with the so-called “global warming hiatus”, the two were not connected."
And what do they say next, after being severely humiliated with the empirical evidence that skeptics rely on? Well.....the consensus doomsday scientists bounce right back with their orthodoxy beliefs, based on the always wrong climate model computer simulations.
"Scientists were quick to declare the results of the Turner et al paper, which covered 1 per cent of the Antarctic continent, did not negate a long-term warming because of man-made climate change...“Climate model projections forced with medium emission scenarios indicate the emergence of a large anthropogenic regional warming signal, comparable in magnitude to the late-20th-century peninsula warming, during the latter part of the current century,” the Turner research concluded."
Previous polar and sea ice articles.
It is indisputable that significant climate change is a never ending condition: Earth's climate, due to internal and external forces, is inconstant and variable across regions.
Chinese researchers determined that non-CO2 forcings are the principal causes of majors swings in a climate's temperature, be it cooling and warming. They also determined that the modern 20th century warming, which doomsday alarmists attribute solely to the trace gas CO2, is well below the confirmed warming that took place in earlier, pre-industrial periods.
Their research is based on the empirical evidence of a reconstructed temperature dataset using tree rings from China's northwestern Sichuan Plateau. This new dataset confirms what the multitude of previous studies have determined - significant climate changes are absolutely natural.
This study's conclusions:
"Seven major cold periods and three major warm periods were identified from this reconstruction, which might be linked with volcanic and solar activities. The Little Ice Age (LIA) climate can also be well represented and clearly end with climatic amelioration at the end of the 19th century. The 18th and 20th centuries were warm with less extreme cold years, while the 17th and 19th century were cold with more extreme cold years. Moreover, the 20th century rapid warming was not obvious in our RLST reconstruction, which implies that mean maximum temperature, as a unique temperature indicator, might play an important and different role in global change. Overall, the RLST variability in the NWSP might be associated with global land–sea atmospheric circulation (e.g., ENSO, PDO, or AMO) as well as solar and volcanic forcing"
Prior climate history articles.
Per a previous analysis of rising seas surrounding Pacific islands, the satellite measurements indicate that seas are rising but at a very meager rate. The current sea rise rate is significantly below what consensus climate science alarmists have predicted.
So, how do the doomsday claims that tropical islands are being lost to "rapidly" rising seas compare to reality?
Scientific peer-reviewed research can answer that question: The claims are bogus.
A new study examined the Jaluit Atoll of the Marshall Islands.
"...the pair of New Zealand researchers set out to examine historical changes in 87 islands found within the Jaluit Atoll...over the period 1945-2010. During this time, the islands were subjected to ongoing sea level rise and the passage of a notable typhoon...which caused severe damage with its >100 knot winds and abnormal wave heights...caused a decrease in total island land area of approximately five percent, yet Ford and Kench write that “despite [this] significant typhoon-driven erosion and a relaxation period coincident with local sea-level rise, [the] islands have persisted and grown.” Between 1976 and 2006, for example, 73 out of the 87 islands increased in size, and by 2010, the total landmass of the islands had exceeded the pre-typhoon area by nearly 4 percent."
Simply stated, this study again confirms that doomsday prognostications based on climate model simulations have no relation to the actual Pacific island/atoll reality during periods of sea rise.
Science research (and implementation) nowadays produces all sorts of headlines that are of significant interest to the public and policymakers.
But, as seems to be the case, the natural processes of climate change, global warming and global cooling appear to bring the quack scientists with truly quack theories out of the ivy towers in search of more research funding.
Case in point: the Ohio State researchers who claim that a warmer climate produces more violence - this "new" theory that hotter temperatures cause more aggression has been easily debunked before (and debunking this theory is kinda like shooting politically correct fish in a barrel).
For an abundance of similar headlines that reflect violence across a wide range of climates, go here.
These most recent headlines firmly establish that aggressive violence is likely more a result of demographics (i.e. societal, cultural and religious backgrounds) than climate. In other words, you can take someone out a violent area with a very warm climate and nothing basically changes - well.....other than civilization just gets more violence in the cooler climate, obviously.
As we all know, Obama's Paris climate change treaty will stop global warming and climate change in their tracks - rising sea levels too!
With all that checked off his 'bucket' list....
Stephen Hawking has gained a less than stellar reputation for predicting doomsday catastrophes multiple times. Seems his non-scientific predictions are classic clickbait catnip for mainstream media publications and net tabloids.
And then there is his latest doomsday scenario of human CO2 emission causing global warming so hot that humanity on Earth is wiped out by a Venus-like climate of 250 degrees. Unfortunately for Hawking, the empirical evidence clearly indicates that Earth becoming Venus is such an absurdity that even the fear-mongers at the IPCC won't support this vaporfear.
Why is Hawking's Venus prediction so way out there in the twilight zone of black holes? Just look at the adjacent chart.
Plotted are the absolute temperatures for the tropical oceans and the atmosphere above the tropical oceans, as of April 2016 (purple columns). If the oceans are going to be boiled-off by Venus atmospheric temperature levels, then we are a very long way from that happening.
But what about Earth's temperatures a 100 years from now, due to that "runaway" warming Hawking insinuates that we suffer from?
Well, based on the linear trend of temperatures since the satellite measurement age began in 1979, the expected tropical temperatures for April 2116 (yellow columns on chart) will barely budge up - ahem, 250 degrees is not in the cards. Earth's actual experience with Hawking's modern "runaway" warming clearly indicates that we can't get there (250 degrees) from here (25.3°, -4.2°, -24.2°).
And by the time the next 100 years passes, humanity will no longer be using fossil fuels as the primary source of energy. Technology will advance far enough during that time to make the issue of runaway warming or climate change tipping points from human greenhouse gas emissions moot historical footnotes.
Note: Calculated rolling absolute temps using 12-month averages of anomalies and then adding an average absolute temp to the anomalies. Absolute average temp used for HadSST, 24.4C; absolute average temp for UAH lower troposphere -5.0C; absolute average temp for mid-troposphere, -25.0C. Excel used to calculate averages and plot column chart. Venus surface, lower and mid-troposphere temperatures are vastly hotter than 250 degrees that Hawking alluded to.
As skeptics of catastrophic global warming have long advised, climate change is primarily a result of natural forces that are not dependent on anthropogenic influences.
An example of this earthly natural climate change is the Little Ice Age (LIA), which had serious repercussions for many, including the Mongol invaders who terrorized Europe.
Researchers now believe that the underlying cause of the mysterious retreat by the Mongol invading forces of Hungary, during 1462 AD, was the bad weather - likely induced by the natural climate change associated with the LIA onset. Turns out the bad weather of climate change significantly reduced food and nutrition for the Horde's steeds and made for a very muddy terrain to battle on.
And then there is the new research from another planet in the solar system that proves natural climate change is not only a terrestrial phenomenon.
Research derived from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter has established that the Mars ice age is in the process of ending due to a natural global warming for that planet.
In combination, these two research efforts add to the massive amount of scientific evidence that climate change is always occurring; and, most definitely does not require human consumer/industrial greenhouse gases to produce significant impacts on planetary environments and those associated civilizations.
Plant life across the world has improved and increased profoundly, everywhere, due to the higher levels of atmospheric CO2, in combination with the modest global warming since the Little Ice Age.
The most recent study confirming this benefit to the biosphere pinpoints exceptional growth and health for older forests in the Southern Hemisphere - specifically, the Cordilleras region of southern Chile.
Per the study:
"Urrutia-Jalabert et al. performed a series of analyses on tree ring cores they obtained from long-lived Fitzroya cupressoides stands, which they say “may be the slowest-growing and longest-lived high biomass forest stands in the world.” ... the authors write “the sustained positive trend in tree growth is striking in this old stand, suggesting that the giant trees in this forest have been accumulating biomass at a faster rate since the beginning of the [20th] century.” And coupling that finding with the 32 percent increase in water use efficiency over the same time period, Urrutia-Jalabert et al. conclude the trees “are actually responding to environmental change.” ... the researchers state “we believe that this increasing growth trend…has likely been driven by some combination of CO2 and/or surface radiation increases,” adding that “pronounced changes in CO2 have occurred in parallel with changes in climate, making it difficult to distinguish between both effects.”"
As is often the case, scientific research again confirms that the dogmatic consensus climate science, such as the "expert" prediction that the globe's biosphere would suffer great harm from anthropogenic CO2, has proven to be spectacularly wrong.
Additional peer-reviewed articles.
As multiple recent articles have documented, wind energy, in the form of wind farms, has been plagued with multiple serious issues. When compiling the list of issues, it demonstrates that wind power's future as a sustainable renewable energy resource is not so bright.
Adding to the negative issue impacts of wind energy is a new study out of Scotland that established an 80% reduction of the EU protected golden plover bird species in the vicinity of a wind farm.
Per the inconvenient study:
"Lead researcher Dr Alex Sansom said: 'Golden plovers breed in open landscapes and it is likely that the presence of wind turbines in these areas leads to birds avoiding areas around the turbines. This study shows that such displacement may cause large declines in bird numbers within wind farms ...'It will be important to examine whether these effects are maintained over the longer term at this site, and we should also use these detailed studies to examine the effects of wind farms on other bird species.'"
The vast majority of paleo-climate studies have been unequivocal - there are multiple past periods of warmer than current temperatures when low atmospheric CO2 levels existed. Empirical evidence, such as the Greenland ice cores, point to three specific Holocene periods of ancient historical warming: the Minoan, the Roman, and the Medieval eras.
A new research study focusing on the U.S. Western area provides unimpeachable scientific data confirming warmer the temperatures that the previous studies have found.
"In a recent treeline study from central Colorado, Carrara and McGeehin (2015) employed a combination of 23 radiocarbon ages and annual ring counts from 18 Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine (Pinus aristata) remnants found above the local present-day limits of such trees near the Continental Divide in central Colorado, which work revealed that the majority of the tree remnants "were established above the present-day limit of bristlecone pine from prior to 2700 cal. years BP to no later than about 1200 cal. years BP." ... "...has also been found and described in a number of other studies cited by Carrara and McGeehin, namely, those of LaMarche and Mooney (1967), LaMarche and Mooney (1972), LaMarche (1973), Petersen and Mehringer (1976), Scuderi (1987), Carrara et al. (1992), Fall (1997), Lloyd and Graumlich (1997), Doerner (2007), Benedict et al. (2008), Carrara (2011), Madole (2012), Lee and Benedict (2012), Lee et al. (2014) and Morgan et al. (2014)." ..."Clearly, therefore, there exists a wealth of real-world data from the western United States that testifies of the fact that there is nothing unusual, unnatural or unprecedented about that region's current mean yearly maximum and minimum temperatures...".
This should come as no surprise since both empirical and anecdotal evidence establish that natural climate change, with wide variation and extremes, has been a constant for humanity since the beginning.
Take home global warming (and cooling) message: the climate is not stable and never will be - natural climate change rules.
Additional climate-history articles.
As this article discusses, Elon Musk is proving that having a 'green' business model is literally not sustainable without massive subsidies from the government.
"Tesla is a newfangled take on the welfare queen. Or more accurately, the EBT card – which is designed to look like a credit card. To have the appearance of a legitimate transaction … as opposed to a welfare payment...Underneath the glitz and showmanship, that’s what all of Musk’s “businesses” are about. They all depend entirely on government – that is, on taxpayer “help” – in order to survive...Without that “help,” none of Musk’s Tesla’s could survive."
As Musk and his ilk continue to line their pockets with "green" from average taxpayers, it is important to remember that it is the Democrat and Republican establishment types who have encouraged and allowed this to happen.
And, also remember it's the the mainstream media and the climate alarmist science community that created these green-crony hucksters sucksters - they too should be held accountable for what has happened. Simply, it is their constant hype of catastrophic alarmism that elected officials were able to hide behind as billions of taxpayer dollars were being sucked into non-viable commercial solutions instead of the basic research that is needed to pursue superior green technologies.
This article discusses the severe forest fire that is currently happening in the Fort McMurray area of Canada, which the article's author takes issue with those claiming the fire is due to climate change from human activities - i.e. human CO2 emissions, etc.
Claims that specific fires (and forest and wildfires overall) are due to human greenhouse gases have routinely been made since the 1988 testimony of NASA's top climate scientist, James Hansen, predicted that rapid and accelerating warming from GHG emissions would cause more severe and frequent weather events.
As a result of this Congressional testimony, the "consensus" climate experts then predicted that the "dangerous" human-caused warming would produce a significant trend increase of wildfires, especially in the northern hemisphere's boreal forests.
Although the globe has warmed since 1988 (not rapid, nor accelerating, see here and here), the trend for Canadian boreal forest fires has been the opposite of that predicted over the 27 years after the Hansen 1988 testimony.
The adjacent charts plots the number of Canadian forest fires and hectares burned. Clearly, the trends are declining, which suggests an inverse relationship with the level of atmospheric CO2 (ppm CO2 is the chart's right axis).
Despite those climate "experts" failed prognostications, the recent irrefutable empirical evidence indicates that the increased levels of atmospheric CO2 emissions are producing a greener and healthier biosphere, which actually may be more resistant to wildfires.
Additional forest fire articles of the past [tip: then use browser Cntrl-F function to do search on word 'forest' to find forest fire news articles on that page].
Note: Canadian forest fire statistics source; Excel used to plot annual fire statistics and linear trends.
The unsubstantiated claim has been that human CO2-induced climate change was (and is) producing dramatic changes in precipitation levels across the world.
But is it true?
A research effort was undertaken to determine if indeed the evidence backed up the alarmist non-empirical claims/predictions.
The study's findings:
"...report that "most trends exhibited no clear precipitation change," noting that "global changes in precipitation over the Earth's land mass excluding Antarctica relative to 1961-90 were estimated to be: -1.2±1.7, 2.6±2.5 and -5.4±8.1 percent per century for the periods 1850-2000, 1900-2000 and 1950-2000, respectively." ... "stations experiencing low, moderate and heavy annual precipitation did not show very different precipitation trends," ... "deserts/jungles are neither expanding nor shrinking due to changes in precipitation patterns." ... "reasonable to conclude that some caution is warranted about claiming that large changes to global precipitation have occurred during the last 150 years."
Simply put, the exaggerated climate change claims of major disruption to rainfall/snow patterns are just that, exaggerations sans any empirical evidence. The evidence-based science is clear: Over the last 150 years, precipitation trends remain within normal variability.
Earlier this year, a comparison was done using the GISS global temperature observations dataset versus an earlier version of the NASA/GISS computer climate model output, as of 2015 year-end. That comparison can be viewed here.
It is now 4 months later with the current powerful El Niño producing some very high global temperature averages.
So, how does the GISS dataset, as of March 31, 2016, compare against a newer climate model, specifically, the IPCC's modern CMIP5 model using the supposed business-as-usual greenhouse gas scenario (RCP8.5)?
The adjacent chart tells the story, but we add some more content below:
Speaking of the current El Niño (and prior El Niños and La Niñas): "What goes up up must.....?"
Whether its the old NASA computer model simulations or the newer variety of IPCC climate models, Hansen's 1988 prediction of rapidly accelerating and dangerous global warming from human CO2, and other greenhouse gases, has done poorly in comparison to actual observed temps.
Although the recent spike in global temperatures from the current El Niño may provide some AGW alarmist bragging rights ("see, that clock is accurate"), it is highly probable the recent 6-month surge is a very temporary spike, entirely due to the natural ENSO phenomenon that climate models are incapable of predicting.
In fact, when viewing the future projections from the CMIP5 model, one sees the exact same pattern as above - a monotonous upward saw-tooth pattern of small ups and downs, completely unlike the chaotic conditions of real-world climate that is produced by all the conflicting natural feedback forces.
And the reversal from the current temp spike could well lead to another 'Pause' in any significant warming. If that happens, it will build on the growing consensus that climate models can't accurately predict squat, and should not be relied upon by policymakers for any reason - good for research but really terrible for reality-based policy.
Note: James Hansen's 1988 testimony took place in June 1998; this comparison used January 1988 as the starting point. The RCP8.5 scenario is considered by the majority of scientists seeking global warming research grants as the business-as-usual scenario. The climate model anomaly output for the CMIP5 RCP8.5 was adjusted to match the January 1988 anomaly for the NASA/GISS global dataset. Both the RCP8.5 and GISS dataset anomalies used in above chart were calculated by KNMI using the 1981-2010 span as the baseline. Both the model and observed datasets were downloaded after the baseline was chosen. Excel was used to plot chart and calculate all figures, including the linear trends and 3-year moving averages.
"The record of populist predictions about the evils of modern society is terrible. The most alarming predictions, which garner the most headlines and have the most impact on public policy, never come to pass. Perennial pessimism is nothing but paranoid neurosis. ... "The prophets of doom wish they would be quietly forgotten, and for the most part they have been. But they shouldn’t be, when the very same fearmongers remain in positions of influence or power."
Speaking of "prophets of doom," below is a short review of Marc Morano's new investigative documentary.
Last night was the movie theater premier of Climate Hustle. A result of a low budget, it is surprisingly well put together, entertaining and informative. The funniest part of of the film for the audience appeared to be the sequence of the UK's Prince Charles repeating his elitist blather of nonsensical doomsday prophecies, year after year.
My only criticism of the film was at the very end when a panel discussion takes place. The panel included Sarah Palin, who came across as rather inarticulate (my wife confirmed that opinion). Not sure what the thought process could have been as far as including Palin in the film - she is not known at all as a knowledgeable spokesperson for the climate-doomsday skepticism viewpoint. Plus, her reputation as a right-wing, partisan flamethrower adds an unwanted political patina that blemishes the documentary's credibility, needlessly.
Best part of the ending panel discussion was the interview with "scientist" Bill Nye that exposes the authoritarian, pro-censorship and anti-science sentiments of liberal, green Democrats. Morano should seriously consider deleting the entire panel discussion from the film with the exception of his revealing interview with Nye.
Regardless of the less than satisfactory ending, the capacity audience appeared to appreciate and enjoy the movie.
Did I say "capacity"? Indeed, on a very nice spring climate weather Monday night that had the huge theater complex with multiple screens being rather sparse of movie attendees, there were very few open seats left for the Climate Hustle experience - I was stunned.
A paying audience's craving for this film's message would suggest that many Americans are not yet brain-dead doomsday zombies. Definitely go see when the opportunity arises again.
Personally, I'm planning on buying tickets for the Marc Morano's 'Climate Hustle' movie release in theaters tomorrow, Monday May 2. Those plans were happening regardless of Bill Nye.
But with his attempt at lefty censorship, it certainly may cause others to be curious enough about Morano's film that it pushes them to the point of attending. Or, it may incite others just to buy tickets to spite Nye and his green crony-welfare Democrat pro-censorship friends.
Of course, due to his own self-promotion at seeking the limelight, it's not a surprise Bill Nye provided the movie with some free PR. The man has certainly placed himself in the headlines quite a lot lately, which has been recorded quite frequently on our 'Headlines Only' page.
(Note: To find the 'Nye' headlines, use your Cntrl-F browser function and do a search for 'Nye' on this page.)
Climate change and global warming scientists seeking grants for continuing research use computer model simulations to fabricate justify why they need more budget monies from the government - it is a constant doomsday whining that inflicts (and impacts) the entire science community.
The latest simulated calamity that is being tossed around as a doomsday scenario has the oceans being depleted of oxygen because of CO2, thus making marine life impossible.
As with all computer climate simulations, this is junk science that policymakers and the public have no need for. It's a disaster-distraction used to pretend that "scientists", with just a little more money (but always turns out being a whole lot more), will be able to quantify doomsday from natural climate reality - not very likely.
“Since oxygen concentrations in the ocean naturally vary depending on variations in winds and temperature at the surface, it’s been challenging to attribute any deoxygenation to climate change."
Objectively, this certainly appears to be just another case of ever money-desperate climate science sucking the oxygen out of all other scientific endeavors.
Simply stated, this predicted dangerous "acidification" is hypothesized to make the waters uninhabitable for most marine life.
And for this to become a reality, it means that a demonstrable and consistent decline in sea/ocean pH levels should be evident since the beginning of the industrial age.
In fact, as this study indicates, researchers are finding it exceedingly difficult to locate ocean/sea waters that exhibit a dangerous decline in pH values. In addition, as this chart shows (click on chart to enlarge), any slight change in pH from human sources is being swamped, multiple times, by natures own unpredictable wide variability.
With Earth's 'greeness' and vegetation health rapidly improving, the most significant development for humanity is the increased capability to feed the world's poor.
And recent research indicates that regions such as Iran's Azarbaijan region will experience large increases in crop production, including wheat, if CO2 fertilization trends continue.
This article has the summary:
--->"The three Iranian researchers report that when the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 were considered, all regions experienced an increase in wheat yield, which "ranged from 5% to 38% across all times, scenarios and regions." And, therefore, they concluded that "we may expect a higher yield of wheat in northwest Iran in the future if technology development continues as well as in past years," which, one could logically conclude, is likely to be the case."
Previous peer-reviewed articles.
The #ExxonKnew propaganda tactics and legalized-actions being utilized by "green" Democrats, liberals, progressives, and other assorted leftists, is built on the belief that intimidation, suppression, coercion are effective, non-violent terroristic tools to be used to frighten individuals and groups, such as Exxon and other fossil fuel corporations.
The dozen recent articles below (click on each image for supporting article) accurately reflect an unprecedented, anti-American censorship and intimidation mindset that has come to possess the soul of the Democratic Party.
Unfortunately, this mindset should not come as a surprise. The book Liberal Fascism provides an understanding of how left of center philosophies almost always end up utilizing intimidation and bullying tactics to enforce a single viewpoint - aka, government-approved 'groupthink'.
And this book, The Wages of Destruction, provides the meticulous details how elected fascism was used during the 1930-40s to coerce corporations (both private and public) to the will of the big, all-knowing, socialistic government that had come to power, bringing with it an ilk of a Nazi-Orwellian politically correct religion.
And, it is well known that Democrats have long been associated with the awful affliction of political correctness. This affliction, as predicted by many, has now progressed to the obvious fascist-like, big, all-knowing government environment that many left-leaning American elites have fully embraced and pursued (as the above articles confirm).
Frankly, it has become an incredibly sad state of affairs for the American public. It's just more evidence that elections really do matter, as the Germans belatedly discovered after voting into power the aggressive National Socialist party.
For those interested, additional articles regarding the Democrats' recent intimidation attempts to shut down public debate and dialogue in order to enforce political correctness: go here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.
The climate change consensus has long been predicting that global warming will bring more flooding to river regions.
"...freshwater flooding is "the most impacting natural disaster in terms of number of people affected and economic damages," adding that "some studies in the literature (e.g. IPCC, 2013; Stern Review, 2007) seem to indicate that flood damages are expected to increase in the near future as a consequence of a global climate change," citing the additional studies of Hall et al. (2005) and de Moel et al. (2011)."
So, several scientists decided to actually analyse the available climate data for the Po River region of Italy to determine if the IPCC and other predictors had any merit.
As always, they found the predictions counter to reality:
"...analyses revealed there was a significant increase in residential growth in and around the Po river, particularly near levees and dykes, which increased the exposure of persons and property to flood risk over the period of study. However, meteorologically speaking, Domeneghetti et al. report flood events have not increased. "Consistent with previous analyses (see e.g. Montanari, 2012; Zanchettini et al., 2008)," they write, "our trend detection analysis, which we carried out on long historical series observed for the Po river, does not detect any evidence of a statistically significant change in the flood hazard along the Po river and supports the stationarity of the hydrological series during the period of interest (i.e., last five decades)."
Note: Po River image source
Radical-green, progressive Democrats are now resorting to intimidation and inquisition tactics to force others into conformity with their anti-science regarding climate change. Due to their failing miserably in winning the actual science debate, they turn to coercion on those whom disagree.
Unfortunately, they conveniently ignore (or are unaware) the empirical evidence that climate change is a constant, which has produced ancient and geological era extremes in weather and temperatures - extremes that science has confirmed with a cornucopia of peer-reviewed research.
These extremes even took place eons 'Before Exxon' (BE), the fossil fuel giant that Democrats routinely blame for modern climate change and global warming.
Above is a paleo-climate reconstruction from this study for northern Greenland. It clearly depicts the swings in 'BE' climate change from the warming of the MCA (medieval climate anomaly) to the cooling of the LIA (little ice age) and the extreme warming during the early 20th century (ETCW) from the 1920s to 1940s.
The study's author's make the following comments regarding the δ18O proxy:
"The δ18O values of the 20th century are comparable to the medieval period but are lower than that about AD 1420. …. The solar activity and internal Arctic climate dynamics are likely the main factors influencing the temperature in northern Greenland."
Each of these extremes shown are a result of natural internal/external forcings prior to the gigantic consumer/industrial influx of human CO2 emissions starting post-1950.
Per the abundance of climate empirical research, blaming Exxon and other fossil fuel entities for global warming is simply anti-scientific. Climate change, including that of the late 20th century, does not require a change in CO2 - a trace atmospheric gas -to happen.
Additional historical-climate charts.
A group of scientists who researched past climate conditions near the coast of Japan made an interesting discovery.
As the article reports, the climate in that area has not experienced any of the hypothetical CO2-caused warming that "experts" claim is global, extreme and accelerating.
The chart associated with the peer-reviewed study makes it pretty clear that dangerous and unprecedented warming is absent from this part of the world.
The study's authors used tree-ring samples from Japan and Russia. Their proxy reconstruction even has a fitted trend (see red curve) that suggests temperatures there seem cyclical and being driven by natural cyclical forces. Those are thought to include ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
When one thinks about what is reported in this study, it is amazing what scientists can unexpectedly discover from research and analysis when using non-thermometer climate measurements, such as tree rings. These proxies usually come from widely scattered locations, with probably a rather sparse number of samples. In addition, tree rings don't provide a daily or monthly climate recording, unlike thermometer instruments. Yet, at the end of the day, scientists can produce a temperature record and trends over extended periods from an exceptionally low minimum of datapoints, and then their results are widely accepted by the climate science community.
Sometimes one wonders about these studies.
That said, these scientists identified another region of the world where dangerous and extreme warming rates are AWOL.
Additional historical charts.
March 26, 2016 at 03:11 PM | Permalink
Recently, multiple outlets chose to report to their readers and viewers that February 2016 temperatures were "astronomical" and "strange." Yet for a few hundred million people living in two of the leading industrial/consumer nations of the world, the February temperatures were definitely not astronomical, nor strange.
US February Temps (click on)
UK February Temps (click on)
From the U.S. and UK climate agencies, the above two charts plot the absolute temperature levels for the respective countries over the most recent 20 years, plus the global CO2 levels for February.
In the U.S., the February temperature was warm, but not exceptional; and not even the warmest February, especially when put into the context of 5% error bars.
In the UK, the populace experienced February temperatures that were rather well below average for the last 20 years.
As others have noted, the media frenzy regarding "astronomical" represent just more absurdities from alarmist advocacy by "journalists."
Obviously, the two above charts reveal the ludicrous terminology "astronomical" is not really global. Most of any "strange" surface warming likely was generated in regions of the world where there exists an exceptional sparsity of thermometers - in other words, probably the warmest surface regions were based on a given climate agency's strange-simulations.
And it would seem that continuously rising CO2 levels have had little influence on February temperatures in these industrialized countries. As the majority of experts agree, any high February 2016 regional surface and atmospheric temperatures were the direct result of a natural weather El Nino phenomenon in the the Pacific.
Finally, for those interested in the linear trends for both charts, the U.S. February temperatures are cooling at a robust -15.2°F per century pace; the UK February temps are no slacker as they are cooling at -7.2°C per century rate. Indeed, in the face of huge CO2 emissions, both the UK and the U.S. over the last 20 years exhibit a significant deceleration of temperature change warming.
Strange, does the all-powerful CO2 just ignore months starting with 'F'?
Note: Source of US and UK absolute February temperatures; source of February CO2 levels. Excel used to plot the line and bar charts and means; built-in Excel chart function for 5% error bars displayed on charts and linear trends calculated. Warning: linear trends should not be interpreted as a prediction(s).
A green extremist politician of the progressive Democrat camp, who has pushed for the Obama administration to investigate those who challenge the climate science orthodoxy dogma, is richly awarded in the game of life.
Of course, his own family's enrichments must be entirely due to the luck of life's game known as 'Bingo' - for sure!
And for sure, his RICO intimidation and threats have nothing to do with with money from green sources regularly flowing into the family coffers, right?
"A major donor is Annenberg Foundation, known for its support of radical leftist and environmentalist projects. In particular, it funded Chicago Annenberg Challenge, guided by Barack Obama and Bill Ayers (a domestic terrorist leader, widely quoted as saying: “Kill all the rich people. Break up their cars and apartments. Bring the revolution home, Kill your parents.”" Source
All amazingly good fate for him, but absolutely !true!, really. The Senator's good 'fortune' must be all about that bingo-luck, and just to repeat: there certainly is noooo correlation regarding the favorable personal green connections with his pushing for the prosecution of 'deniers' as he calls them, right?!
Oh, and by the way, color me stupidly skeptical on that idea too.
But let's cut him some slack - maybe the green Senator just does not realize he lives in the proverbial glass greenhouse and would be more believable if he wasn't smearing the windows of his own habitat.
It is now being embarrassingly reported that the gigantic Ivanpah solar farm, which Google and NRG received huge subsidies for, is not producing the amount of energy contracted for.
The wealthy investors in the project are now requesting an extension of the time needed to prove the farm's output can even meet minimum levels agreed upon.
As this failed boondoggle is proving for U.S. taxpayers, sustainable, efficient and affordable green energy is not easy nor cheap. Deriving energy from the Sun is not "free" as activist proponents of non-fossil fuel sources claim.
And it's not only the U.S. that continues to experience terrible results from subsidized-green projects designed to enrich wealthy investors - here are recent examples of Australia and Spain, plus the ever-growing German Energiewende flop.
As has been well documented from multiple public sources over recent years, the establishment elites of power and wealth continue to easily waste taxpayer billions on questionable politically correct energy sources, instead of focusing those dollars for the basic research needed to make green energy a viable self-standing possibility.
Note: Image source
(click on charts to enlarge)
The extremist green movement is the principal driver behind the story that recent climate change is the result of humans - more specifically, the result of consumer/industrial fossil fuel emissions.
Indeed, the fringe greens claim that modern global warming is solely caused by CO2 from coal, oil and gas combustion. Plus, they claim that natural climate change has had almost zero influence on temperature changes over the past 30 years.
Yet, the empirical evidence from NOAA does not support those claims. In fact, one could surmise that the greens' claims are refuted in many instances.
Using the U.S. temperature dataset from NOAA, which represents evidence from the most comprehensive climate reporting system in the world, a reality-based version of past and present temperature change emerges.
[Ed: The US dataset is considered by experts to be the best instrumental northern hemisphere proxy of climate change available. The longest instrumental northern hemisphere proxy is the CET dataset from the UK, which represents a much narrower band of geography.]
Most recently, we know that the super El Nino produced a 3-month winter period (Dec-Feb) that reached its highest winter average ever by the end of Feb. 2016. And amazingly, using a larger subset of the same dataset, the 5-year temperature trend ending Feb. 2015 is actually negative, cooling at -3.5°F/century rate for 12-month periods.
Now, the 3-month warming event and 5-year trends are absolutely worthless as predictive tools, but for comparison purposes they can be instructive. For example, the 5-year trend ending in February 1935 was an extreme +28.6°F/century versus that recent -3.5°F/century trend.
Those 5-year periods are the first instructive clue that the early 20th century climate change was extremely powerful, without any influence from large CO2 emissions. The significantly higher early climate warming rates versus modern warming are not only unexplained by experts, but also by the computer climate models that have become known for being utter flops.
This has resulted in a lot of embarrassing hand-waving distractions and "don't look behind that curtain" responses.
Expanding on the comparison of natural versus modern warming rates, the chart on the left plots various per-century trends for US temperatures ending February 1935 (red curve) versus those periods ending February 2016 (aqua curve).
Note that in all cases (5yr, 10yr, 15yr, 20yr, 25yr and 30yr) the warming trends of the early 20th century natural climate change ending on Feb. 1935 exceed (sometimes by a lot) the modern warming trends ending Feb. 2016.
How can this be one might ask?
Well, in a nutshell, the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis, which is at the center of modern climate-doomsday scenarios, cannot explain the powerful warming of the past. The AGW hypothesis essentially ignores the relevance, the strength and the significance of all natural climate change resulting from internal and external forces.
Thus, as previously mentioned, "experts" and computer simulated predictions have egregiously failed.
The AGW hypothesis is driven by the assumption that atmospheric CO2 levels produce the rapid accelerating warming trends that are so feared. However, if CO2 was the sole cause of global warming, then the chart on the right would be the supporting evidence, except it isn't.
The chart on the right plots changes in CO2 atmospheric levels for the the two comparison periods. Visually, the periods ending on Feb. 1935 and Feb. 2016, reveal the huge disconnect between the AGW hypothesis of CO2 climate warming and the actual evidence.
Over the last 30 years, the modern change in CO2 ppm levels is over 5 times greater than that experienced spanning the 30 years ending in Feb. 1935. Yet, as noted before, major period warming rates for the early 20th century easily exceed those of the modern CO2 "doomsday" era.
This past U.S. climate experience of extreme warming provides unequivocal evidence that natural climate change is variable and strong enough to easily explain the milder modern warming trends over the last 30 years.
In addition, this NOAA dataset also makes it perfectly clear that global climate change is not some simple linear function of human greenhouse gases, as proposed by low-information elites and media. On top of that, it is apparent that the greens' global warming is not really "global" for huge chunks of geography and populace at given times. (related: recent NOAA global dataset analysis)
As an aside, the press is constantly spreading the meme of the 'warmest', be it warmest day, month, quarter, year, decade and etc. Many times what they report is true in one sense but they forget to mention that it has been warming since the Little Ice Age. And today's reporters conveniently fail to mention that reporters of the 1930s' were saying the same for their period of extreme climate change.
Finally, NOAA reports that there exists a minor U.S. cooling trend of -0.7°F per century since 1999 - based on the past eighteen 12-month periods (18 non-calendar years) ending February.
Note: Source of U.S. NOAA temperature dataset (12-month periods ending February: choose 12-month time scale); modern CO2 dataset and pre-1958 CO2 dataset. Excel used to plot charts and to calculate temp trends and CO2 changes.
The continuing scientific climate research confirms what 97% of studies have previously determined: the northern latitudes, including the Arctic and Greenland, were considerably warmer in the past when CO2 levels were substantially below those of the 21st century.
The science facts are indisputable, natural forces and cycles frequently pushed the global climate into extremes of cooling and warming.
As this study found:
".....determined that (1) "maximum concentrations of chironomids, maximum occurrence of ephippia of the water flea Daphnia pulex, highest organic matter contents and lowest minerogenic input from c. 7700 to 4400 cal. a BP probably reflect the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM)," that (2) "the highest temperatures during the HTM are indicated around 7000 cal. a BP, when Salix arctica, which is considered a warmth-loving plant, had a maximum," that (3) "comparisons with Holocene records from East and North Greenland show similar immigration histories and similar trends, with the Little Ice Age as the coldest period during the Holocene, culminating about 150 years ago," and that (4) "subsequent warming does not indicate environmental conditions comparable to the HTM yet at this stage."
Additional climate-history research articles.