"The record of populist predictions about the evils of modern society is terrible. The most alarming predictions, which garner the most headlines and have the most impact on public policy, never come to pass. Perennial pessimism is nothing but paranoid neurosis. ... "The prophets of doom wish they would be quietly forgotten, and for the most part they have been. But they shouldn’t be, when the very same fearmongers remain in positions of influence or power."
Speaking of "prophets of doom," below is a short review of Marc Morano's new investigative documentary.
Last night was the movie theater premier of Climate Hustle. A result of a low budget, it is surprisingly well put together, entertaining and informative. The funniest part of of the film for the audience appeared to be the sequence of the UK's Prince Charles repeating his elitist blather of nonsensical doomsday prophecies, year after year.
My only criticism of the film was at the very end when a panel discussion takes place. The panel included Sarah Palin, who came across as rather inarticulate (my wife confirmed that opinion). Not sure what the thought process could have been as far as including Palin in the film - she is not known at all as a knowledgeable spokesperson for the climate-doomsday skepticism viewpoint. Plus, her reputation as a right-wing, partisan flamethrower adds an unwanted political patina that blemishes the documentary's credibility, needlessly.
Best part of the ending panel discussion was the interview with "scientist" Bill Nye that exposes the authoritarian, pro-censorship and anti-science sentiments of liberal, green Democrats. Morano should seriously consider deleting the entire panel discussion from the film with the exception of his revealing interview with Nye.
Regardless of the less than satisfactory ending, the capacity audience appeared to appreciate and enjoy the movie.
Did I say "capacity"? Indeed, on a very nice spring climate weather Monday night that had the huge theater complex with multiple screens being rather sparse of movie attendees, there were very few open seats left for the Climate Hustle experience - I was stunned.
A paying audience's craving for this film's message would suggest that many Americans are not yet brain-dead doomsday zombies. Definitely go see when the opportunity arises again.
Personally, I'm planning on buying tickets for the Marc Morano's 'Climate Hustle' movie release in theaters tomorrow, Monday May 2. Those plans were happening regardless of Bill Nye.
But with his attempt at lefty censorship, it certainly may cause others to be curious enough about Morano's film that it pushes them to the point of attending. Or, it may incite others just to buy tickets to spite Nye and his green crony-welfare Democrat pro-censorship friends.
Of course, due to his own self-promotion at seeking the limelight, it's not a surprise Bill Nye provided the movie with some free PR. The man has certainly placed himself in the headlines quite a lot lately, which has been recorded quite frequently on our 'Headlines Only' page.
(Note: To find the 'Nye' headlines, use your Cntrl-F browser function and do a search for 'Nye' on this page.)
Climate change and global warming scientists seeking grants for continuing research use computer model simulations to fabricate justify why they need more budget monies from the government - it is a constant doomsday whining that inflicts (and impacts) the entire science community.
The latest simulated calamity that is being tossed around as a doomsday scenario has the oceans being depleted of oxygen because of CO2, thus making marine life impossible.
As with all computer climate simulations, this is junk science that policymakers and the public have no need for. It's a disaster-distraction used to pretend that "scientists", with just a little more money (but always turns out being a whole lot more), will be able to quantify doomsday from natural climate reality - not very likely.
“Since oxygen concentrations in the ocean naturally vary depending on variations in winds and temperature at the surface, it’s been challenging to attribute any deoxygenation to climate change."
Objectively, this certainly appears to be just another case of ever money-desperate climate science sucking the oxygen out of all other scientific endeavors.
Simply stated, this predicted dangerous "acidification" is hypothesized to make the waters uninhabitable for most marine life.
And for this to become a reality, it means that a demonstrable and consistent decline in sea/ocean pH levels should be evident since the beginning of the industrial age.
In fact, as this study indicates, researchers are finding it exceedingly difficult to locate ocean/sea waters that exhibit a dangerous decline in pH values. In addition, as this chart shows (click on chart to enlarge), any slight change in pH from human sources is being swamped, multiple times, by natures own unpredictable wide variability.
With Earth's 'greeness' and vegetation health rapidly improving, the most significant development for humanity is the increased capability to feed the world's poor.
And recent research indicates that regions such as Iran's Azarbaijan region will experience large increases in crop production, including wheat, if CO2 fertilization trends continue.
This article has the summary:
--->"The three Iranian researchers report that when the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 were considered, all regions experienced an increase in wheat yield, which "ranged from 5% to 38% across all times, scenarios and regions." And, therefore, they concluded that "we may expect a higher yield of wheat in northwest Iran in the future if technology development continues as well as in past years," which, one could logically conclude, is likely to be the case."
Previous peer-reviewed articles.
The #ExxonKnew propaganda tactics and legalized-actions being utilized by "green" Democrats, liberals, progressives, and other assorted leftists, is built on the belief that intimidation, suppression, coercion are effective, non-violent terroristic tools to be used to frighten individuals and groups, such as Exxon and other fossil fuel corporations.
The dozen recent articles below (click on each image for supporting article) accurately reflect an unprecedented, anti-American censorship and intimidation mindset that has come to possess the soul of the Democratic Party.
Unfortunately, this mindset should not come as a surprise. The book Liberal Fascism provides an understanding of how left of center philosophies almost always end up utilizing intimidation and bullying tactics to enforce a single viewpoint - aka, government-approved 'groupthink'.
And this book, The Wages of Destruction, provides the meticulous details how elected fascism was used during the 1930-40s to coerce corporations (both private and public) to the will of the big, all-knowing, socialistic government that had come to power, bringing with it an ilk of a Nazi-Orwellian politically correct religion.
And, it is well known that Democrats have long been associated with the awful affliction of political correctness. This affliction, as predicted by many, has now progressed to the obvious fascist-like, big, all-knowing government environment that many left-leaning American elites have fully embraced and pursued (as the above articles confirm).
Frankly, it has become an incredibly sad state of affairs for the American public. It's just more evidence that elections really do matter, as the Germans belatedly discovered after voting into power the aggressive National Socialist party.
For those interested, additional articles regarding the Democrats' recent intimidation attempts to shut down public debate and dialogue in order to enforce political correctness: go here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.
The climate change consensus has long been predicting that global warming will bring more flooding to river regions.
"...freshwater flooding is "the most impacting natural disaster in terms of number of people affected and economic damages," adding that "some studies in the literature (e.g. IPCC, 2013; Stern Review, 2007) seem to indicate that flood damages are expected to increase in the near future as a consequence of a global climate change," citing the additional studies of Hall et al. (2005) and de Moel et al. (2011)."
So, several scientists decided to actually analyse the available climate data for the Po River region of Italy to determine if the IPCC and other predictors had any merit.
As always, they found the predictions counter to reality:
"...analyses revealed there was a significant increase in residential growth in and around the Po river, particularly near levees and dykes, which increased the exposure of persons and property to flood risk over the period of study. However, meteorologically speaking, Domeneghetti et al. report flood events have not increased. "Consistent with previous analyses (see e.g. Montanari, 2012; Zanchettini et al., 2008)," they write, "our trend detection analysis, which we carried out on long historical series observed for the Po river, does not detect any evidence of a statistically significant change in the flood hazard along the Po river and supports the stationarity of the hydrological series during the period of interest (i.e., last five decades)."
Note: Po River image source
Radical-green, progressive Democrats are now resorting to intimidation and inquisition tactics to force others into conformity with their anti-science regarding climate change. Due to their failing miserably in winning the actual science debate, they turn to coercion on those whom disagree.
Unfortunately, they conveniently ignore (or are unaware) the empirical evidence that climate change is a constant, which has produced ancient and geological era extremes in weather and temperatures - extremes that science has confirmed with a cornucopia of peer-reviewed research.
These extremes even took place eons 'Before Exxon' (BE), the fossil fuel giant that Democrats routinely blame for modern climate change and global warming.
Above is a paleo-climate reconstruction from this study for northern Greenland. It clearly depicts the swings in 'BE' climate change from the warming of the MCA (medieval climate anomaly) to the cooling of the LIA (little ice age) and the extreme warming during the early 20th century (ETCW) from the 1920s to 1940s.
The study's author's make the following comments regarding the δ18O proxy:
"The δ18O values of the 20th century are comparable to the medieval period but are lower than that about AD 1420. …. The solar activity and internal Arctic climate dynamics are likely the main factors influencing the temperature in northern Greenland."
Each of these extremes shown are a result of natural internal/external forcings prior to the gigantic consumer/industrial influx of human CO2 emissions starting post-1950.
Per the abundance of climate empirical research, blaming Exxon and other fossil fuel entities for global warming is simply anti-scientific. Climate change, including that of the late 20th century, does not require a change in CO2 - a trace atmospheric gas -to happen.
Additional historical-climate charts.
A group of scientists who researched past climate conditions near the coast of Japan made an interesting discovery.
As the article reports, the climate in that area has not experienced any of the hypothetical CO2-caused warming that "experts" claim is global, extreme and accelerating.
The chart associated with the peer-reviewed study makes it pretty clear that dangerous and unprecedented warming is absent from this part of the world.
The study's authors used tree-ring samples from Japan and Russia. Their proxy reconstruction even has a fitted trend (see red curve) that suggests temperatures there seem cyclical and being driven by natural cyclical forces. Those are thought to include ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
When one thinks about what is reported in this study, it is amazing what scientists can unexpectedly discover from research and analysis when using non-thermometer climate measurements, such as tree rings. These proxies usually come from widely scattered locations, with probably a rather sparse number of samples. In addition, tree rings don't provide a daily or monthly climate recording, unlike thermometer instruments. Yet, at the end of the day, scientists can produce a temperature record and trends over extended periods from an exceptionally low minimum of datapoints, and then their results are widely accepted by the climate science community.
Sometimes one wonders about these studies.
That said, these scientists identified another region of the world where dangerous and extreme warming rates are AWOL.
Additional historical charts.
March 26, 2016 at 03:11 PM | Permalink
Recently, multiple outlets chose to report to their readers and viewers that February 2016 temperatures were "astronomical" and "strange." Yet for a few hundred million people living in two of the leading industrial/consumer nations of the world, the February temperatures were definitely not astronomical, nor strange.
US February Temps (click on)
UK February Temps (click on)
From the U.S. and UK climate agencies, the above two charts plot the absolute temperature levels for the respective countries over the most recent 20 years, plus the global CO2 levels for February.
In the U.S., the February temperature was warm, but not exceptional; and not even the warmest February, especially when put into the context of 5% error bars.
In the UK, the populace experienced February temperatures that were rather well below average for the last 20 years.
As others have noted, the media frenzy regarding "astronomical" represent just more absurdities from alarmist advocacy by "journalists."
Obviously, the two above charts reveal the ludicrous terminology "astronomical" is not really global. Most of any "strange" surface warming likely was generated in regions of the world where there exists an exceptional sparsity of thermometers - in other words, probably the warmest surface regions were based on a given climate agency's strange-simulations.
And it would seem that continuously rising CO2 levels have had little influence on February temperatures in these industrialized countries. As the majority of experts agree, any high February 2016 regional surface and atmospheric temperatures were the direct result of a natural weather El Nino phenomenon in the the Pacific.
Finally, for those interested in the linear trends for both charts, the U.S. February temperatures are cooling at a robust -15.2°F per century pace; the UK February temps are no slacker as they are cooling at -7.2°C per century rate. Indeed, in the face of huge CO2 emissions, both the UK and the U.S. over the last 20 years exhibit a significant deceleration of temperature change warming.
Strange, does the all-powerful CO2 just ignore months starting with 'F'?
Note: Source of US and UK absolute February temperatures; source of February CO2 levels. Excel used to plot the line and bar charts and means; built-in Excel chart function for 5% error bars displayed on charts and linear trends calculated. Warning: linear trends should not be interpreted as a prediction(s).
A green extremist politician of the progressive Democrat camp, who has pushed for the Obama administration to investigate those who challenge the climate science orthodoxy dogma, is richly awarded in the game of life.
Of course, his own family's enrichments must be entirely due to the luck of life's game known as 'Bingo' - for sure!
And for sure, his RICO intimidation and threats have nothing to do with with money from green sources regularly flowing into the family coffers, right?
"A major donor is Annenberg Foundation, known for its support of radical leftist and environmentalist projects. In particular, it funded Chicago Annenberg Challenge, guided by Barack Obama and Bill Ayers (a domestic terrorist leader, widely quoted as saying: “Kill all the rich people. Break up their cars and apartments. Bring the revolution home, Kill your parents.”" Source
All amazingly good fate for him, but absolutely !true!, really. The Senator's good 'fortune' must be all about that bingo-luck, and just to repeat: there certainly is noooo correlation regarding the favorable personal green connections with his pushing for the prosecution of 'deniers' as he calls them, right?!
Oh, and by the way, color me stupidly skeptical on that idea too.
But let's cut him some slack - maybe the green Senator just does not realize he lives in the proverbial glass greenhouse and would be more believable if he wasn't smearing the windows of his own habitat.
It is now being embarrassingly reported that the gigantic Ivanpah solar farm, which Google and NRG received huge subsidies for, is not producing the amount of energy contracted for.
The wealthy investors in the project are now requesting an extension of the time needed to prove the farm's output can even meet minimum levels agreed upon.
As this failed boondoggle is proving for U.S. taxpayers, sustainable, efficient and affordable green energy is not easy nor cheap. Deriving energy from the Sun is not "free" as activist proponents of non-fossil fuel sources claim.
And it's not only the U.S. that continues to experience terrible results from subsidized-green projects designed to enrich wealthy investors - here are recent examples of Australia and Spain, plus the ever-growing German Energiewende flop.
As has been well documented from multiple public sources over recent years, the establishment elites of power and wealth continue to easily waste taxpayer billions on questionable politically correct energy sources, instead of focusing those dollars for the basic research needed to make green energy a viable self-standing possibility.
Note: Image source
(click on charts to enlarge)
The extremist green movement is the principal driver behind the story that recent climate change is the result of humans - more specifically, the result of consumer/industrial fossil fuel emissions.
Indeed, the fringe greens claim that modern global warming is solely caused by CO2 from coal, oil and gas combustion. Plus, they claim that natural climate change has had almost zero influence on temperature changes over the past 30 years.
Yet, the empirical evidence from NOAA does not support those claims. In fact, one could surmise that the greens' claims are refuted in many instances.
Using the U.S. temperature dataset from NOAA, which represents evidence from the most comprehensive climate reporting system in the world, a reality-based version of past and present temperature change emerges.
[Ed: The US dataset is considered by experts to be the best instrumental northern hemisphere proxy of climate change available. The longest instrumental northern hemisphere proxy is the CET dataset from the UK, which represents a much narrower band of geography.]
Most recently, we know that the super El Nino produced a 3-month winter period (Dec-Feb) that reached its highest winter average ever by the end of Feb. 2016. And amazingly, using a larger subset of the same dataset, the 5-year temperature trend ending Feb. 2015 is actually negative, cooling at -3.5°F/century rate for 12-month periods.
Now, the 3-month warming event and 5-year trends are absolutely worthless as predictive tools, but for comparison purposes they can be instructive. For example, the 5-year trend ending in February 1935 was an extreme +28.6°F/century versus that recent -3.5°F/century trend.
Those 5-year periods are the first instructive clue that the early 20th century climate change was extremely powerful, without any influence from large CO2 emissions. The significantly higher early climate warming rates versus modern warming are not only unexplained by experts, but also by the computer climate models that have become known for being utter flops.
This has resulted in a lot of embarrassing hand-waving distractions and "don't look behind that curtain" responses.
Expanding on the comparison of natural versus modern warming rates, the chart on the left plots various per-century trends for US temperatures ending February 1935 (red curve) versus those periods ending February 2016 (aqua curve).
Note that in all cases (5yr, 10yr, 15yr, 20yr, 25yr and 30yr) the warming trends of the early 20th century natural climate change ending on Feb. 1935 exceed (sometimes by a lot) the modern warming trends ending Feb. 2016.
How can this be one might ask?
Well, in a nutshell, the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis, which is at the center of modern climate-doomsday scenarios, cannot explain the powerful warming of the past. The AGW hypothesis essentially ignores the relevance, the strength and the significance of all natural climate change resulting from internal and external forces.
Thus, as previously mentioned, "experts" and computer simulated predictions have egregiously failed.
The AGW hypothesis is driven by the assumption that atmospheric CO2 levels produce the rapid accelerating warming trends that are so feared. However, if CO2 was the sole cause of global warming, then the chart on the right would be the supporting evidence, except it isn't.
The chart on the right plots changes in CO2 atmospheric levels for the the two comparison periods. Visually, the periods ending on Feb. 1935 and Feb. 2016, reveal the huge disconnect between the AGW hypothesis of CO2 climate warming and the actual evidence.
Over the last 30 years, the modern change in CO2 ppm levels is over 5 times greater than that experienced spanning the 30 years ending in Feb. 1935. Yet, as noted before, major period warming rates for the early 20th century easily exceed those of the modern CO2 "doomsday" era.
This past U.S. climate experience of extreme warming provides unequivocal evidence that natural climate change is variable and strong enough to easily explain the milder modern warming trends over the last 30 years.
In addition, this NOAA dataset also makes it perfectly clear that global climate change is not some simple linear function of human greenhouse gases, as proposed by low-information elites and media. On top of that, it is apparent that the greens' global warming is not really "global" for huge chunks of geography and populace at given times. (related: recent NOAA global dataset analysis)
As an aside, the press is constantly spreading the meme of the 'warmest', be it warmest day, month, quarter, year, decade and etc. Many times what they report is true in one sense but they forget to mention that it has been warming since the Little Ice Age. And today's reporters conveniently fail to mention that reporters of the 1930s' were saying the same for their period of extreme climate change.
Finally, NOAA reports that there exists a minor U.S. cooling trend of -0.7°F per century since 1999 - based on the past eighteen 12-month periods (18 non-calendar years) ending February.
Note: Source of U.S. NOAA temperature dataset (12-month periods ending February: choose 12-month time scale); modern CO2 dataset and pre-1958 CO2 dataset. Excel used to plot charts and to calculate temp trends and CO2 changes.
The continuing scientific climate research confirms what 97% of studies have previously determined: the northern latitudes, including the Arctic and Greenland, were considerably warmer in the past when CO2 levels were substantially below those of the 21st century.
The science facts are indisputable, natural forces and cycles frequently pushed the global climate into extremes of cooling and warming.
As this study found:
".....determined that (1) "maximum concentrations of chironomids, maximum occurrence of ephippia of the water flea Daphnia pulex, highest organic matter contents and lowest minerogenic input from c. 7700 to 4400 cal. a BP probably reflect the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM)," that (2) "the highest temperatures during the HTM are indicated around 7000 cal. a BP, when Salix arctica, which is considered a warmth-loving plant, had a maximum," that (3) "comparisons with Holocene records from East and North Greenland show similar immigration histories and similar trends, with the Little Ice Age as the coldest period during the Holocene, culminating about 150 years ago," and that (4) "subsequent warming does not indicate environmental conditions comparable to the HTM yet at this stage."
Additional climate-history research articles.
Recently, RSS satellite scientists decided they needed to proactively adjust atmospheric temperatures in order to rid the world of the widely reported global warming hiatus. It's a pause of insignificant warming that has existed since the major El Niño of 1998 that the 2015 El Niño recently stopped.
Thus, they produced a new study refuting their previous reported satellite temperature measurements for the mid-troposphere going back to 1979.
For the period from 1979 to 1997 (see left chart), these scientists saw little need for major adjustments to their earlier RSS dataset. Yet for the global warming pause period stretching from 1998 to 2014, significant adjustments (see right chart) apparently had to be made, stat.
The charts comparing the RSS old and new datasets of monthly observations includes the plot of simple 5-year averages (60 months). The obvious RSS cherry-picked adjustments of the post-1998 period versus the earlier period is clarified by the presentation of the 'old' and 'new' 5-year averages.
So, Carl Mears of RSS chose a specific start point and a specific endpoint to apply significant man-made adjustments to, which is clearly a blatant cherry-picked fabrication to produce a desired politically correct "empirical" objective, no?
It would seem this is politically correct anti-science at its worst on bold exhibit by RSS.
(And if you don't believe RSS is a politically correct, anti-science outfit, then you might not be aware that they refer to their science critics as 'denialists', a premeditated slander.)
The end result?
The study now identifies a higher global warming trend that they were previously unable to find with the best satellite technology available as a resource. Of course, for their new research, they are still using the same technology - go fabricate figure.
And there is more to come of this style of RSS "science" with the upcoming release of their new lower troposphere dataset.
Additional past examples of clear temperature fabrications supporting the dogmatic religion of the climate alarmism anti-science cult.
A new batch of recent videos related to the global warming and climate change debate can now be found here at Collection #8.
Below is a short clip of one of the videos.
March 03, 2016 at 04:34 PM | Permalink
A threat of green-made extinction is in the air.
Now it appears that the significant offshore wind farm noise and other acoustic artifacts combine to produce a deadly impact on whales. And additional marine species may be adversely impacted too.
This image of the beached sperm whales on Europe's shores is not a typical occurrence. As this article explains, the gigantic offshore wind farms these two whales traversed may be the underlying cause. Sadly, an additional 27 whales suffered the same fates at the same time.
Since wind farm power generation has no discernible influence on global warming, and are unable to survive without a massive transfer of average taxpayer monies to wealthy investors, via government mandate, maybe its time for this subsidization of mass animal killings to end.
As the vast majority of climate peer-reviewed studies confirm, there were multiple periods in the geological and ancient past that exhibited, not only extreme climate change, but also hotter temperatures prior to the modern era's huge industrial/consumer greenhouse gases.
This new study regarding the Arabian Sea temperatures during winter seasons adds to the mountain of evidence that current climate change is of a less extreme variety, despite the gigantic CO2 emissions.
And as this other study indicates, that extra CO2 has provided substantial benefits to the biosphere.
Climate doomsday is just around the corner, or so they claim, and the left/liberal/progressive forces in academia just want U.S. science teachers to stop teaching otherwise...or else!
As discussed in this article (source of image also), there seems to be a large percentage of classroom teachers who actually discuss and teach both the anti-science of the politically correct doomsday-cult, as well as the objective empirical-based climate science (that would be sans the Ouija board of simulated catastrophes).
Essentially, they teach two sides of the debate, despite all the empirical evidence completely countering the catastrophic claims of ivory tower, green alarmists.
Most lukewarmers and CAGW skeptics should be rightfully upset that so many science teachers are unable to determine factual evidence from the unsupported claims of very speculative, non-validated guesstimates. And yet, at the same time, be happy that so many American teachers can think for themselves and challenge the young minds with open debate - Bravo!
With that said, the article points out some obvious truths and advice that those PC doomsday-embracing teachers might try to wrap their brains around in order to minimize the fear and alarm they may be causing students in the classroom.
"The way climate change should be communicated is this:
100% of scientists agree that climate changes. Almost all (99%) agree that our planet has warmed 1C since 1880, for example.
Almost all (97% or even more) agree that humans can affect the climate and that our effects have contributed to the warming we have seen since 1945.
Two-thirds (66%) believe our contribution has been significant – half or more of the current warming.
There is no consensus on some of the most important issues involved in assessing human-caused climate change, including atmospheric sensitivity, the most important factor.
There is little agreement on what the impacts of the warming will be, how much warming we will experience due to our actions or what actions we should take to change the course of the climate trajectory."
And, we will add this: There is zero understanding as to how to stop the natural occurring climate cycles, shifts and changes, which influence the global temperatures, produce the severe weather, and harm agriculture output even more than any human impacts (besides ElNino/LaNina and reoccurring monsoons, think the Little Ice Age, Medieval Warming and other major climatic swings that have and will happen again).
Names of academia authors who seem to be proposing that science censorship (or specific favored propaganda?) be forced on grade, middle and high school teachers: Eric Plutzer, Mark McCaffrey, A. Lee Hannah, Joshua Rosenau, Minda Berbeco, Ann H. Reid.
Maybe these ivory tower, incredible lame-brains might try explaining to the science teachers, or even the prestigious "science" journals, how it is possible to stop the continuous natural climate change or those pesky major cyclical climate patterns.
Global warming alarmists, green activists, celebrities, and especially the mainstream press, collaborated in a loud chorus denouncing CO2 human emissions due to its supposed destructive nature on honeybee colonies.
With the onset of the widely publicized American 'colony collapse disorder', they were predicting that climate change from greenhouse gases would destroy the honeybees (and other bee species) and crop agriculture - meaning a massive starvation for mankind.
Something had to be done about global warming and this potential extinction. Climate change had to be dealt with swiftly. Do it for the children honeybees!!!
So, Obama proposed the typical tardy government response of more bureaucrats, taxpayer monies for scientists, and evidence-free untested policies, which will likely accomplish zilch.
In the meantime, the bee problem has been solved, like usual, via free markets, capitalism and individualism, not by govt diktat. Read the whole story here.
And not to be forgotten, like polar bears, another species predicted to go extinct a long time ago, bee colonies just reached a record high in the last 20 years at a time of the world's "hottest" temperatures evah and highest atmospheric CO2 levels.
Prior failed predictions.
Nope, they can't predict squat. It is with '97%' certainty that any climate model prediction will be wrong within 3 to 5 years.
Tip: Always bet against a climate model/simulation - the odds be with you.
Why do they always fail? As they say, read the whole thing in Real Clear Science.
And which groups of people really like to embrace the doomsday alarmist predictions from climate models?
Hmmm...the list is large: green crony capitalists; politicians on the green cronies donor payroll; scientists paid by government funded green research grants; journalists addicted to doomsday headlines; green environmental organizations feeding on the wallets of the gullible; and, of course, guilt-ridden celebrities who are massive CO2 polluters (take your pick, they come in all stripes and flavors).
The short version: NOAA's latest empirical evidence reveals that last 25 year period of global warming is not exceptional, nor unprecedented. Unexpectedly, NOAA's own evidence debunks their own global warming propaganda that they claim is fact.
Yes, the warming isn't exceptional but the irony certainly is.
NOAA is well known to aggressively push the misleading myth of a dangerous modern warming rate from CO2, and that this rapid warming can only be man-made, not a result of natural forces.
Yet its own temperature dataset proves past natural global warming rates of earlier periods are similar and as powerful.
And of course, NOAA always conveniently forgets about the substantial warming and climate change periods of the historical and geological past, which far exceed what NOAA has reported over the last 25 years.
Moving on to the long version of this analysis.....
(click on any chart to enlarge)
The long version: Unprecedented modern warming? A simple factcheck of NOAA's temp information proves otherwise.
With a multitude of politicos, greens, activists, pundits, journalists, and wildly uninformed celebrities jointly wringing their hands over 2015 being the hottest ever, it's beyond empirical doubt that the rate of the last 25 years of warming is not unique.
Yes, in a nutshell, it's warmer today than 25 years ago, but that's to be expected due to the 150+ year natural rebound in temperatures since the extreme cold of the Little Ice Age.
Putting aside the overused "hottest" adjective, does NOAA's empirical measurement prove that modern warming is significantly different than past natural warming? Have the last 25 years warmed a quantifiably greater amount than prior periods?
To the charts of NOAA empirical evidence to compare two 25-year climate periods of global warming.
Chart #1: For ease of comparison, the earlier 20th century monthly anomaly sub-dataset was offset so as to start at exactly the same anomaly point as the modern sub-dataset. When that is done, it is easier to visually match the similarities/differences of the two warming periods.
Despite their obvious differences in anomaly variation, these two distinct periods reflect similar outcomes over their respective 25 years. Even though the earlier 20th century period (1919 to 1943) experienced little in the way of consumer/industrial CO2 emissions, its monthly warming anomaly increase is almost a perfect match to the last 25 years, ending 2015.
The chart's fitted trends (2nd order polynomial) reveal the earlier period with a closing warming rate that is accelerating away from the modern fitted trend.
Chart #2 plots the calculated linear trends for both 25-year periods. The difference in 'per century' trends is rather minuscule, especially when considering the massive greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere since 1950. Objectively, the small trend increase of +0.40 degrees per century over the last 25 years is well within known natural variation.
Clearly, any warming impact of CO2 emissions has barely surpassed the per century trend produced by natural climatic forces from 1919-1943. Based on this empirical evidence, a robust conclusion would be that the CO2-centric AGW hypothesis is exceptionally insignificant.
Chart #3 compares the 5-year average warming for each period, using the same starting anomaly point. From the start, the ‘Modern’ 5-yr average rises much faster; but in an exceptional (dare we say "unprecedented") spurt, the ‘Earlier’ period 5-yr average closes the gap to a mere +0.03 degree warming difference at the end of 25 years.
Based on that tiny difference, one can fairly surmise that the huge CO2 emissions production over the last 25 years has not distinguished itself as climatically significant versus natural variation.
And it is interesting (and somewhat unexpected) that both the ‘Earlier’ and ‘Modern' periods had extended pauses, which are noted on the chart #3.
Chart #4 depicts the cumulative temperature change for the full 25 years (300 months) ending in 1943 and 2015; plus, their respective changes in CO2 levels. Per NOAA’s own empirical dataset, the earlier 20th century warming cumulative amount was actually greater than the modern era period ending in December 2015 — and remember, the December 2015 temperatures anomaly just had an incredible surge due to the current El Niño peak.
In conclusion, as stated in the first paragraph, modern warming over the last 25 years is not exceptional, nor unprecedented in spite of the gigantic accumulation of atmospheric CO2 emissions during the fossil fuel era. Based on real world climate and the actual evidence, simulated predictions of future dangerous warming remain without any scientific substance.
Notes: The period of 1919-1943 was chosen for analysis and comparison due to its visual pattern similarities to the last 25 years ending December 2015. Source of NOAA global temperature dataset; modern and historical CO2 datasets. Excel was used to plot and calculate trends/averages for all charts. Chart#1 had 1919-1943 anomaly plot adjusted to start at same anomaly point as 1991-2015 period; chart#2 linear trends are based off plots of chart#1; chart#3 uses 5-year averages calculated from each period's anomaly dataset and then the 1919-1943 5yr average was adjusted (i.e. offset) to start at same anomaly point as 1991-2015 5yr average; chart#4 cumulative differences calculation: the December 31, 1943 anomaly minus the December 31, 1918 anomaly and the December 31, 2015 anomaly minus the December 31, 1990 anomaly (both calculations covering a full 300 months).
As these two recent stories indicate, the U.S. EPA agency has seemingly morphed into an enemy of the people.
After doing much good for the nation's water and air qualities during the 1970's and 80's, the EPA has gone bureaucratically rogue by simply issuing new policies, fines/fees, onerous regulations and decrees without any representation - kinda like that old meme of 'no taxation without representation'.
The Supreme Court has finally stepped in, via an unprecedented action, to delay the EPA from imposing even more potential harm on Americans from the EPA's 'Clean Power Plan'.
Based on the recent evidence of the EPA's malfeasance and poor judgment, maybe the Supremes finally recognized that the rogue EPA had to be reined in.
Update: How much did the EPA pollute that Colorado river with?
(click on either image for for picture and article source)
It's been only several weeks of the ink drying on the Paris climate treaty agreement and serious t-r-o-u-b-l-e for its worldwide adoption has quickly emerged.
As this article indicates, the New York Times and others are wondering if the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision put the kabosh on the hopes of the fringe, extremist left/green radicals and their companions, the Democrat "progressive" conspiracy-addicts.
One can only hope, but unfortunately the climate change alarmists and doomsday cult will continue their wanton path of destruction regarding freedom of speech, open scientific debate and civil discourse about important policy issues.
The abhorrent fact that greens keep pushing for the criminalization of disagreement with their views suggests that legal barriers to their totalitarian impulses will not stop them.
Empirical evidence is always a good disinfectant for doomsday fears and conspiracy theories. And it's no different for the exuberant, catastrophic hyperbole, irrational and anti-science prognostications being pronounced on a daily basis regarding global warming.
The below charts of empirical evidence are another 'bolus' of disinfectant for the climate change hyperbole - hyperbole that is pushing both climate science research and debate to the ludicrous, for example.
|Chart #1 (click on any chart to enlarge)||Chart #2|
|Chart #3||Chart #4|
|Chart #5||Chart #6|
Chart #1 is one that will never be shown by the establishment climate science community, nor by the climate-doomsday alarmists.
The chart plots the absolute global averages for both surfaces and atmospheric temperatures since the major 1998 El Niño peak. It is a peak-to-peak chart through December 2015 that reveals absolute global temperatures to be on a fairly stable path over the last 18 years.
Global temperatures move up and down in a narrow band, which is why the rolling 5-year averages are essentially flat. This stability has occurred in spite of the large increase in CO2 levels (see black dots on chart) during the same time frame.
Chart #2 is a plot of the same time period but using the familiar temperature anomalies instead of absolute temperatures.
Climate scientists and alarmists strongly favor anomalies for their lack of context. With anomalies, the public sees frightening large temperature spikes without realizing that real-world temperatures, while extremely variable, rarely remain outside a very narrow climate range - anomalies don't reveal the narrow range context that the absolutes show in Chart #1.
It's important to remember that in everyday life the public depends on the reporting of absolute temperatures. For example, the TV weather announcer would provide the following style of summation: "tomorrow will range from a cool of 45 degrees in the morning to a high of 73 degrees by late afternoon" - they don't state that tomorrow's temperatures will have an anomaly of +0.03 degree over the average baseline by late afternoon.
Simply stated, they use absolutes when reporting to the public, not meaningless anomalies. The absolute temperature degrees provide valuable context that allows the public, be they urban commuters, regional bureaucrats or rural farmers, to make informed and rational decisions.
With that said, it is certainly true that anomalies are invaluable for research, but for scientists to employ them for communications with the general public is in a reality a form of lying by context-omission.
By avoiding the use of absolute temperatures, the establishment can thus produce the desired agenda narrative, in a context vacuum, that our world is "rapidly warming" in order to persuade the public of favored energy/taxation policies.
But as this series of charts reveal, the context provided by the absolute temperatures is critically important to determining if the "rapidly warming" doomsday fears are rational and contextually evidence-based.
Charts #3 (absolutes) and #4 (anomalies) are plots of the same surface and atmospheric temperature datasets but for a different period: 1880 through 2015.
Charts #5 and #6 are more of the same, except the plots start at January 1979, the first full year of satellite temperature measurements and empirical 24/7 global measurement evidence - 37 years, as of the end of 2015.
With that long introduction out of the way, what do these 6 charts tell the policymakers, the taxpayers and the general public?
First, atmospheric CO2 levels have been climbing, relentlessly.
Second, the NOAA surface temperature dataset indicates that the globe has been steadily warming since 1880, but in a sporadic fashion.
The long-term warming trend since the Little Ice Age amounts to +0.7C degrees/century, per NOAA. The shorter term surface warming since 1998 has been at a rate of +1.4C/century; and the atmosphere has actually cooled at a -0.1C/century rate since 1998.
Third, climate change and its variation, as represented by global temperatures in Chart #4, is evident since the first decade of observations. Climate change 'has', and 'is', and 'will' happen - it is a natural phenomenon that happens.
Fourth, although the satellite evidence clearly indicates that the atmosphere has warmed since 1979, that warming has stalled since the 1998 peak - Chart #2's 5-year average for the RSS dataset vividly shows the 'Pause/Hiatus/Stall', equal to a cooling rate of -0.1/century.
Both the surface and atmospheric actual temperature changes are significantly below the estimates predicted due to the large CO2 increases.
And this fourth observation is especially critical.
The anthropogenic global warming (AGW) hypothesis states the greenhouse emissions will warm the lower atmosphere, which will then result in a subsequent warming of Earth's surface. Yet, since 1998 the surface has warmed (more on that surface "warming" here and here) while the atmosphere had not warmed at all through 2015 - this is a major AGW hypothesis disconnect.
In addition, the AGW hypothesis assumes that increasing greenhouse gases will cause the triggering of major positive feedbacks that in turn will cause dangerous, accelerated warming in the atmosphere and then the surface. In reality, the "dangerous, accelerated warming" has not taken place, anywhere.
Ergo, CO2 emissions are not resulting in the "consensus" predicted positive feedbacks.
Since there is no evidence of the doomsday positive feedback, which the climate experts and their computer models assume, the predictions of doomsday climate catastrophes actually remain without a sliver of requisite empirical evidence or scientific proof.
Notes: Datasets used: NOAA; RSS; CO2-modern; CO2-proxy. Excel was used to plot charts from the government's own climate data.
Even with the strong surge in global temperatures from the current El Niño and from the surge of 2015 global warming exaggeration and fabrication (here, here and here), there remains the strange case of establishment climate science models failing to meet expected outcomes.
Case in point. This chart replicates the famous climate model output presented to Congress and the world in 1988 by James Hansen, the then chief climatologist of the NASA/GISS climate research unit. (Here is an image of the original chart.)
The climate model predicted annual temperature changes would follow the bright green curve if greenhouse gases (GHGs) were not curtailed. GHGs include: CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride - the latter 3 are known as fluorinated greenhouse gases.
The orange curve represents the predicted annual temperature changes if the GHG growth rate were reduced over time.
The chart's cyan (aqua) curve datapoints are the predicted annual temperature changes if GHGs were curtailed by governmental polices and regulations so that year 2000 and beyond had a net growth rate equal to zero.
From the Hansen 1998 testimony, there is this statement:
"We have considered cases ranging from business as usual [BAU], which is scenario A, to draconian emission cuts, scenario C, which would totally eliminate net trace gas growth by year 2000."
From the 1988 Hansen peer-reviewed article that supports his testimony, there is this statement:
"We define three trace gas scenarios to provide an indication of how the predicted climate trend depends upon trace gas growth rates. Scenario 'A' [chart's green curve] assumes that growth rates of trace gas emissions typical of the 1970s and 1980s will continue indefinitely; the assumed annual growth averages about 1.5% of current emissions, so the net greenhouse forcing increases exponentially. Scenario 'B' [chart's orange curve] has decreasing trace gas growth rates, such that the annual increase of the greenhouse climate forcing remains approximately constant at the present level. Scenario 'C' [chart's cyan curve] drastically reduces trace gas growth between 1990 and 2000 such that the greenhouse climate forcing ceases to increase after 2000."
So.....since NASA's top climate expert's testimony, what has happened with the GHG growth and growth rates?
From a recent U.S. EPA report on non-CO2 greenhouse gases, there is the following:
"Global non-CO2 emissions are projected to increase significantly between 2005 and 2030 unless further actions are taken to reduce emissions...total emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases have nonetheless increased."
From the latest IPCC AR5 climate report, we know the following about GHGs (a synopsis here):
"Total anthropogenic GHG emissions have continued to increase over 1970 to 2010 with larger absolute decadal increases toward the end of this period. Despite a growing number of climate change mitigation policies, annual GHG emissions grew on average by 1.0 gigatonne carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2eq) (2.2 %) per year from 2000 to 2010 compared to 0.4 GtCO2eq (1.3 %) per year from 1970 to 2000. Total anthropogenic GHG emissions were the highest in human history from 2000 to 2010 and reached 49 (±4.5) GtCO2eq/yr in 2010.".....
In addition, the combination of CO2 fossil fuels emissions and CO2 emissions from deforestation, forest fires and peat burning have grown from 72% of all GHG emissions in 1970 to 76% of all GHG emissions.
Regarding fossil fuel CO2 emissions, specifically (CO2 data here): NASA and Hansen's 'BAU' Scenario A was proposed at a time when CO2 emissions were growing: since 1972, the 15 years ending 1987 the world emitted 285 billion tonnes of CO2. This represents a CO2 average growth rate of 2.2% per year for those 15 years prior to Hansen's 1988 testimony.
In contrast, for the 15 years ending 2014, the world has emitted a total of 467 billion tonnes - that is growth some 1.6 times greater than Hansen's 'BAU'. This represents a CO2 average growth rate of 2.9% per year for the period since 1999.
Without any doubt, both empirically and objectively, NASA's Hansen's projected GHG emissions for 'Scenario A' has easily been exceeded since his testimony in 1988. To state otherwise is a falsehood, categorically.
Now, back to the above chart.
For the year 2015, NASA's model predictions had temperature change for all 3 scenarios declining. Of course, we now know the exact opposite took place with the sharp increase in 2015 global temps.
It is important to note that since the 1988 testimony, the NASA climate predictions have very rarely been correct regarding annual temperature changes. (NASA is not an exception, though - all climate computer models and experts suffer the same level of failure.)
For what it's worth, the chart also shows the 2016 predictions: there is continuing decline for Scenarios B & C, but a sharp spike up for Scenario A to a record calendar year anomaly level.
While global warming alarmists are celebrating 2015 as the "warmest" year ever, the climate model failures clearly point to the absurdity of focusing on peak or trough moments as indicators of informed expertise. Peaks happen and troughs happen, in weather and climate, but pointing to either as scientific proof of computer simulations is not science.
Taking that to heart, the accompanying chart has 3-year average plots of highly adjusted observed temperatures from the NASA and UK climate agencies - the 3-year averages remove the focus from peaks/troughs.
As can be seen, 3-year averages of the GISS and HC4 datasets depict the last 3-year average increase due to the El Niño conditions, and those questionable man-made factors.
Be that as it may, the GISS and HC4 averages still remain closer to the realm of NASA's Scenario C range. As a reminder, the Scenario C predictions are a result of net zero GHG emissions simulated to have started in year 2000, which is yet another galaxy away from reality.
In conclusion, some relevant takeaways on climate models:
1. At this point, now close to 3 decades after NASA's testimony, one can safely surmise that expert climate models can't predict squat. The climate is a chaotic complex that defies even the most sophisticated and powerful forecasting tools.
2. GHG emissions have far surpassed the 1988 "world-will-soon-end" BAU construct - a construct that many alarmists still believe. Yet the predicted positive feedback from BAU has not occurred and thus runaway global warming is, without question, AWOL.
3. The climate models are still absolutely unable to discern either the amount or rate of global warming/cooling that is due to natural forces. The models were designed to purposefully rely on greenhouse gas forcings as their major causal factor, while diminishing natural climate impacts. It's no wonder that climate models remain on a fail path.
4. Based on the model outputs from 1960 to the present, policymakers and the public would be better served by rejecting the alarmist scenarios A and B; instead, moving forward, base all adaption and mitigation policies on Scenario 'C', which would likely produce better outcomes with superior allocation of scarce resources.
The climate models definitely have their important place in the climate researcher's toolbox. They are best suited to advance science's better understanding of our world, but their climate predictions, forecasts and prognostications should never be relied on - they are unreliable and inaccurate.
Update h/t: Video of climate scientist making the same point about climate model failure before a congressional committee on Feb 2, 2016:
Additional climate model charts.
(click on any chart to enlarge)
A recent letter from 300 scientists is requesting that Congress assure that the Data Quality Act is complied with, which NOAA has not done regarding both the U.S. and global empirical temperature observations.
When 300 scientists put their name and reputations on the line criticizing NOAA, it can be assumed that the issue is one of significance and importance to science.
And this issue is now coming to a head after 7+ years of both NOAA and NASA blatantly adjusting historical temperature measurement records on a continual basis.
In essence, these two climate research agencies have purposefully cooled the past; and then warmed the modern temperatures in an effort to make global warming seem more severe than actually has taken place since the Little Ice Age. (See here a recent example of NOAA's adjustment handiwork.)
Their combined adjustment "methodology" has certainly mislead the public and policymakers, which has added to the growing mistrust that the public has for politicians, scientists and bureaucrats.
The group of charts above reveals the gross manipulation of temperatures that strongly indicates an anti-science motivation to meet the current administration's political needs.
Charts #1 & #2 show two examples of the constant adjustments by both NOAA and NASA. These examples show the number of adjusting steps taken since 2008 to cool past historical temperatures and the number of steps to raise a modern month's temperature.
Charts #3 & #4 show the total amount of adjustments by month since 1880 for NOAA and NASA. The fabricated warming of modern temps and cooling of pre-modern temps is more than obvious - it is unequivocally blatant and an unprecedented level of science tampering.
All of these charts were compiled by Ole Humlum, a well-known university scientist/professor from Norway who publishes peer-reviewed climate change research. Go to his 'Climate4You' site to access a large volume of valuable climate information.
One wonders if the massive temperature dataset adjustment performed by NOAA during 2015 was a direct result of 'pause embarrassment.'
The extended 'pause' appears to have finally rattled the scientists at NOAA. They seemingly chose to robustly adjust thousands of past monthly temperature observations to make sure the embarrassing pause would be no longer.
The adjacent chart depicts the global annual temperature anomalies computed from the monthly NOAA dataset reported in 2014 (orange columns); and the red columns represent the new annual anomalies after NOAA's massive 2015 revisions.
By slightly adjusting down the past reported temperatures for years 2000-2003, and then by adjusting up years 2005-2014, NOAA was able to almost double the warming trend (i.e. slope of linear trend-line) for the 15 years ending in 2014.
To put the NOAA adjustments in scientific perspective, the chart also includes the satellite reported annual temperature anomalies for the same periods. Note for the satellite columns that only 3 of the 15 years (2012, 2013 and 2014) had minor adjustments of 0.01 each. As a result, the satellite temperature trend-lines remain flat for both 2014 and 2015.
One can assume that the RSS scientists avoided the temptation to massively adjust the satellite temperature dataset just to achieve desired political/activist objectives; thus, the 'pause' in the lower atmosphere continues and empirical science was not tarnished.
Unfortunately, NOAA has succumbed, allowing the bureaucracy to put the political cart before the scientific horse - the AGW hypothesis clearly predicts that the lower atmosphere has to warm first and at a faster pace than surface temperatures. The empirical evidence of the pause has not supported the prediction of a severely warming atmosphere for almost two decades now.
At this point in time, the satellite empirical evidence is significantly more trustworthy as it does not suffer from the constant monthly historical revisions that both NOAA and NASA perform on their respective temperature datasets.
The lower troposphere represents that layer of the atmosphere which is predicted to first experience the positive feedback of accelerated warming due to human greenhouse gases.
Recently, NOAA and NASA held a global warming presentation, which included various charts, and an unexpected admission that the atmosphere was not as warm as previous El Niño years.
An essential general review of the presentation can be found here.
The troposphere's lack of achieving the "warmest" year label was confirmed by the NOAA/NASA analysis of the relevant balloon and satellite datasets. And the adjacent chart is a combination from the NOAA/NASA presentation, with one chart being superimposed atop the other.
Other than a normal atmospheric response to the latest large El Niño temperature surge, the chart documents the continued lack of dangerous positive feedback warming.
Lol.....sure to become a 'politically correct' classic, and a favorite of the White House, the IPCC bureaucrats, those green 'Hotel Earth' doomsday comrades, and, of course, all dogma-loving students....
As the preponderance of scientific studies and reports have proven, our current modern warming is not unprecedented. Significant warming has taken place quite often in the past, as well as climatic cooling.
"The 600-year reconstructed record -- dating back to AD 1392. As indicated, the record shows pronounced periods of subdecadal to multidecadal variability. Specifically, Elbert et al. note the presence of cold phases "during parts of the Little Ice Age (16th and 18th centuries) and in the beginning of the 20th century." In contrast, they state that warm phases persisted "in the 15th century, around AD 1600 and in the 19th century," the latter of which they characterized as the "most prominent" of the entire record."
Additional peer-reviewed postings.
It's not even close.
In a prior posting, the empirical evidence from a group of high quality tidal gauge locations revealed the long-term acceleration and deceleration of sea levels.
Overall, the last 30 years exhibited a trend of only 9-10 inches per century - certainly not a biggie even worthy of a climate-doomsday claim. This trend has been exceeded in the past, prior to the accumulation of high levels of CO2 gases in the atmosphere.
Despite this known evidence, over the last decade and a half much has been made of the claim that CO2 emissions were causing the seas to rise ever faster and would soon result in a literal swamping of Pacific islands.
But what does the actual non-tidal gauge empirical evidence say about the sea rise in the Pacific?
(click on any image to enlarge)
Using the satellite observations, compiled by the leading sea level research group's site, one can download sea surface height anomalies from the beginning of the 21st century. This empirical evidence should clarify if civilization's massive CO2 emissions over the last 15+ years have caused a dangerous sea rise surge of ever higher waves.
And it does clarify.
The empirical evidence is rather convincing when it comes to a lack of rapidly rising sea heights around Pacific islands and atolls.
With that said, there indeed may be certain Pacific regions and specific island situations that are experiencing a greater acceleration of rising sea levels. But one would be hard-pressed to claim a unique location (or several) represents the result of CO2-induced global climate change when scientific measurement-reality obviously indicates accelerating, doomsday sea level rise is not a global phenomenon.
Notes: Download Excel spreadsheet with sea height anomaly datasets (and comments) for these 8 island regions: Hawaii, Tuvalu, Midway, Nauru, Wake, Tahiti, Norwalk and Marshall. Plots and trends produced from a January 2000 start date in order to identify the 21st century sea level rise conditions versus the claims.
Across the globe there exist only a handful of tide gauge station records available that exceed 100 years in length, and that also report at least 90% of the monthly records over the last 100 years.
Using the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) database, one can identify 15 gauge sites that are exemplary in record keeping. In addition, all 15 have records through 2013, with the majority (12) having records through 2014.
The 15 sites with a long history of gauge readings are listed on the adjacent chart. The chart also includes an average of all 15 and a plot of atmospheric CO2 levels.
The chart plots the per century trends, by month, based on moving 30-year (360-month) periods.
The smooth trend curves plotted are fitted, providing a visual as to where sea level acceleration and deceleration have been, and indicate where they might be going. [Ed: Using trends for predictive purposes is not recommended.]
The purplish (mauve) smooth curve is the average of all moving per century trends for the 15 sites; the monthly datapoints for the average of all is depicted also (see the variable mauve plot).
What do the mauve trend curve and mauve monthly datapoint plot reveal?
Putting it into the human-caused 'climate change' context, this global mean of long-term sea level trend has clearly not been a function of the rapidly rising CO2 levels (see chart's plot of moving 360-month average of atmospheric CO2 levels).
In summary, the overall sea level rise trend has been rather unimpressive, and slightly meandering back and forth since the early 1940s, while CO2 levels have exhibited a seemingly exponential growth. At the end of 2014, the 30-year trend amounted to a 2.3 to 2.5 mm (9 to 10 inches) increase per year.
The chart also reveals the two outliers of the group: Stockholm and Galveston, Texas. They both show a distinct cycle of ups and downs with no obvious relation to CO2 levels. (Stockholm's gauge has recorded a declining sea level trend.....at -14.3 inches per century, as of the end of 2014.)
For the other 13 gauge sites, the chart only depicts the smoothed fitted trends of sea level rise using the 30-year periods. Each site's trend exhibits a slightly different cyclical pattern cycle from others but most stay within a fairly narrow range over the decades. (See monthly per century trends plotted without the smooth fitted curves.)
Finally, the chart's two dashed fitted curves, red and blue, represent opposite trend directions at the end of 2013 - they are San Francisco and Freemantle, Australia. These two sites would suggest that a unified, in-sync global sea level change is not a reality.
The above chart from the 15 sites indicates a current per century trend of 2.2-2.5 mm/year increase in mean sea levels, with the 1950's having a peak trend of approximately 2.7 mm/year (0.11 inches/yr). The raw sea level records when averaged, from beginning to end for the 101 years of records, calculates to an average site increase of 2.05 mm/year (0.08 inches/yr).
The current rate of sea level rise is not unusual versus the late 1940's and early 50's, which is an era prior to the huge increase in consumer/industrial CO2 emissions. And certainly this chart shows ancient sea level increases that were multiple times larger and faster than those observed with our modern climate.
This adjacent sea level infographic from a 2015 study published in the Science journal confirms that sea levels were significantly higher in the pre-history than our current levels.
When comparing the ancient past with the modern 15-site gauge per century trend of the last 30 years, it would take some 2,500 years to reach the 6-meter higher sea levels recorded approximately 125,000 years ago at a much lower CO2 level.
And to reach a more modest 1-meter sea level increase would take approximately 400+ years, per today's sea level trends.
**(Infographic's explanation: Peak global mean temperature, atmospheric CO2, maximum global mean sea level (GMSL), and source(s) of meltwater. Light blue shading indicates uncertainty of GMSL maximum. Red pie charts over Greenland and Antarctica denote fraction (not location) of ice retreat.)
The modern climate alarmism fears of the soon-to-be flooding of coastal regions, which would unleash a horde of climate refugees, is entirely without scientific merit, per the modern dataset records and the expert research done on the pre-history sea levels and trends.
Additional sea level charts.
Notes: Excel was used to calculate and plot the moving sea level per century curves and fitted trends (Excel slope function produced trends based on moving 360-month periods for each month in the dataset; then converted to per century trends (inches) for each month). Excel also used to calculate averages and to sort dataset records to identify highest per century trends for each site. The smooth fitted trends are to the 6th order. The Key West, Florida dataset's first record was January 1913, thus all 15 site sea level calculations started at the same date; the first 30-year trend calculated occurred at the December 1942 dataset record - hence, the plotted trends in the top chart start with December 1942. PSMSL datasets were the source of all records used for the chart. Download raw sea level datasets in Excel spreadsheet for all 15 sites, from 1913 to 2014. The datasets chosen included those that had data at least through December 2013; had at least a 100 year record of monthly reporting; and, had at least a 90% reporting of all 1,012 months covering the 101 years. The 'youngest' dataset meeting the criteria, Key West, determined the 101-year span used.
It's not just the UN/IPCC "consensus" in climate science that promotes fiction and harmful Western elitist policies that have no basis in reality. The perpetually ignoring of the actual facts by elites promotes nothing more than ego gratification, superficial pontificating and incredibly poor policy-making.
|Politically correct journalists, pundits, and "experts" continue to be proven wrong by recent events.||This video makes specific points that simply reduces claims of "religion of peace" to being nothing more than an empty slogan, like "climate change."|
December 15, 2015: The just finished Paris COP21 climate "Treaty" supposedly will stop global warming and climate change, so say those political soothsayers whom claim omnipotence over Mother Earth - claims that have an eerie similarity to those a century before when the elite politicos absurdly proclaimed to have stopped future wars.
Below are a dozen recent articles regarding the non-binding, non-enforcement, non-penalty "Treaty" to save the world. Click on any of the dozen to go to article's source.
Additional article links here.
As the state-of-the-art satellite technology shows (see chart), significant global warming since the early 2000’s has been nonexistent.
This has become a real problem for many proponents of dangerous global warming, which has recently pushed them into a stance of actually denying the 'pause'.
Empirically, since November 2000 the lower atmosphere temperature trend has actually been negative at a minus 0.12ºC per century trend. (The chart’s green curve is a 36-month average, which makes the pause even clearer to the casual observer.)
The chart also includes r-squared calculations, besides linear trends, that indicate a fairly weak 30-year relationship between CO2 and temperatures, which appears to have become a zero relationship over the last 15 years.
In review, the AGW theory is based on a CO2-induced warming of the lower atmosphere, at a rapid and accelerating warming rate - this being a result of the theory's speculative positive feedback loop.
As can be seen, the satellite empirical evidence after 30+ years does not readily support the climate-alarmist AGW theory, nor the doomsday predictions of global warming hell.
Although the satellites are considered the gold-standard for measuring and observing sea levels, hurricanes/typhoons, ozone holes, sea ice, atmospheric CO2 distribution, polar ice sheet masses and etc., the same 24/7 technology used to measure temperatures across the entire habitable world is now being ignored (i.e., denied) due to the above inconvenient evidence.
Denying the global-warming pause has recently become a self-inflicted, nightmarish scenario for agenda-driven scientists - in a sense, they have morphed into science deniers. And all these political shenanigans, plus the ongoing NASA/NOAA data fabrication/tampering, are proving to be a significant drag on the reputation and integrity of the science community.
The adjacent chart pretty much makes a turkey mockery of accelerating global warming fears. It's simply not flying happening.
While the climate science establishment continues its costly and misallocated efforts against "catastrophic" global warming, the empirical evidence indicates the worlds' elites are pursuing a laughably ludicrous Don Quixote quest against an imaginary climate-evil.
Like so many Thanksgivings of the past, those on the 'quest' have piously announced civilization's reaching its 'last chance' point of saving itself from climate doomsday. But all of these Turkeynado Sharknado-like prophecies that the end-is-near have proven to be pure anti-science fiction.
At some point, we can hope some sanity returns to the climate science anti-CO2 Quixote brotherhood of warriors. But in the meantime, what does the actual climate science say?
Well, this chart is just brutally frank: the fast growth of atmospheric CO2 levels (the black dots) have not exactly been the robust evil foe the elite establishment has fixated on.
As the chart depicts, the CO2 impact on either short (red curve) or long-term (pink curve) rapid global temperature acceleration appears to be non-existent versus the "consensus" predictions. And the blue-dash curve reveals the rather turkey-like impact on the 36-month average of absolute global temperatures.
Indeed, global temperatures have increased since 1950. But the scientific reality is that the chart confirms a steady global warming that has been taking place since the end of the Little Ice Age (late 1700s) - well before the influx of the giant CO2 emissions from the industrial/consumer era. The chart clearly shows a long history of frequent periods of rapidly increasing temperatures, then to be always followed by a significant deceleration.
Examine the chart's most recent period, from December 1996 through October 2015. The periods of both rapid temperature increases and decreases are evident, just as they existed since instrumental recording of temperatures first began.
Terrified by global warming doomsday? Not so much anymore, it would seem.
Suffice it to say, Americans are no longer impressed by the claims of government and celebrity elites. Fully 97% now reject the unreal turkey-esque predictions of climate change disasters.
And the American public is not alone. The global masses join Americans in their low assessment of the elites' unscientific climate calamities.
As the public has learned, the empirical evidence supports neither the man-made climate change disaster narrative nor the CO2-reducing solutions proposed, which have been seriously debunked.
One last 'chance' - look at the chart, are you still terrified this Thanksgiving? How about that wacky college-aged, censorship-loving, millennial niece gnawing on that turkey wing next to you?
Note: Excel used to calculate the 3-year absolute temperature and CO2 level averages; also used to calculate the moving 36-month and 360-month per century acceleration/deceleration trends (Excel slope function) as depicted on chart; the absolute temps calculated using the HadCRUT4 month anomalies and NOAA's monthly global mean temperature estimates; and, the 3-year average beginning value for CO2 was offset to a zero starting place. Temperature sources used: here and here. CO2 sources used: here (March 1958-October 2015) and here (used annual historical levels for each month of the given year, from January 1850 to February 1958).
This week is the 40th anniversary of the sinking of the SS Edmund Fitzgerald during a Lake Superior gale. It was a huge Great Lakes iron-ore freighter known as the Titanic of the Great Lakes with a workhorse record; and only 17-years of service at the time of her plunge to the bottom of the lake.
She went down in the deep waters of Lake Superior in the early evening hours of November 10, 1975 with 29 lives. Her fast sinking was so exceptional for a huge ship that it was subsequently celebrated by a very popular song.
That unexpected and violent storm is now forever known for sinking the largest ship ever, on the Great Lakes.
One could certainly surmise that the low CO2 levels (less than 350ppm) during that time may have contributed to this tragedy. She was battered by both 35-foot waves and near hurricane level winds - an extreme, rare weather event that suggests low-CO2 climate change at work.
No other gigantic ship has sunk on the Great Lakes since those low CO2 levels, doncha know.
The decade of the 70's were exceptional for its extreme and severe weather events that plagued the globe during the regime of low atmospheric CO2. Climate scientists and other experts at the time debated as to the causes, but the science remained unsettled as to why the weather extremes had become so violent and frequent during that specific decade.
Climate change extreme weather events due to low CO2 (1970-79):
Extreme climate/weather record charts.
Government-funded scientists, the Green's anti-CO2 activists and the mainstream media-alarmists have all claimed that the current drought being suffered by the US west coast is the extreme climate change Americans have never experienced before.
They claim it is due to human CO2 emissions of the modern industrial and consumer civilization.
Yet severe droughts have been part and parcel of the world's climate since humans started recording severe weather events. Across the globe, and the US, there is no shortage of historical drought reports and other extreme climate conditions.
More specifically, as the images below attest, drought extremes in the US have been extensively documented by NOAA since the 1900s, with most taking place well before the global 350ppm CO2 atmospheric level was commonplace.
For a perspective, the October 2015 drought conditions (top-left image) have often been exceeded by some kick-ass October drought conditions in the past. (click on any image to enlarge)
Simply put, the climate has always been changing, impacting large geographical regions at any given time. As the scientific empirical evidence makes clear, a changing climate is not unusual, and most definitely is not solely due to human CO2 emissions.
For someone to claim otherwise is literally anti-scientific.
The climate change fear-mongering generated by government-related persons and agencies has recently reached peak levels, with claims that are a mixture of absurd and just plain silly when compared to the empirical scientific evidence.
Such claims include the meme that rising global CO2 has caused accelerating, rapid US warming; that droughts are destroying all of our food crops; that more frequent and stronger weather disasters from warmer temperatures are wreaking untold harm; that global warming will shorten/threaten US life spans; that ever expanding wildfires are consuming our forests; and etc., etc., etc.
(One indeed wonders why so many Americans can't wait to retire to the tropical and warmer climates that Hawaii, Florida, Arizona and S. California offer if warm temperatures are so harmful and deadly.)
With all that said, the U.S. has the best weather and climate measurement capabilities in the world, with observations from a wide geographical dispersion and a extensive range of micro-climates, be it tropical islands or Arctic tundra. The most extensive and complete empirical evidence comes from the continental U.S., which the vast majority of the American population resides.
Instead of believing the promoters of doomsday screams about every single impending weather event being the next civilization-busting disaster, or the journo/pundits' propensity to shout about the hottest hour, the hottest day, week, month, summer and/or hottest year stats (take your pick) ad nauseum, it might be best to reflect on what the American public has realized about long-term climate change doomsday from the empirical evidence - it's a very thin nothing-burger.
To the empirical evidence.
The adjacent chart depicts several long-term climate record trends of 10-year averages (US hurricane landfalls, forest fire acres, drought, precipitation, maximum and average temperatures). The chart also includes the following 10-year average trends: atmospheric CO2 levels; the U.S. corn yield; and, the U.S. life expectancy trend from decadal census information.
As can be seen, the CO2 growth trend has been truly remarkable, only exceeded by the exceptional trend for corn yields (by the way, other agricultural crops also possess exceptional yield trends). And the increasing life expectancy trend for Americans is none too shabby either.
In contrast, the charts reveal the truly unexceptional, unremarkable long-term trends for any climate/weather attribute previously predicted to worsen from the modern era's CO2-induced climate change.
These fitted curve trends have yawn-inducing characteristics, indicating CO2 from fossil fuel combustion is spectacularly not the powerful greenhouse gas emission that experts conjectured about.
Conclusion: Although short-term variation extremes in weather attributes and incidents can be large and at times awe-inspiring, they are not climate change. Long-term climate change since the Little Ice Age has been dominated by a very slow warming, which the chart's 'average' and 'maximum' temperature trends reveal. The long-term climate change across the continental U.S. as represented by the precipitation, hurricane landfall events and drought are much more difficult to discern from their respective fitted trends (objectively, they are rather climatically insignificant overall). Forest fire acres burned has had an uptick in recent years (for bureaucratic reasons) but is vastly below levels reached in the early 20th century. All in all, human CO2 combustion emissions are directly linked to the great agricultural prosperity and vastly improved well being of the American citizen over the past century, much to the chagrin of doomsday cultists - whether yesteryear's or today's.
In other words, the politicos and bureaucrats predictions of gloom, doom and disasters were wrong, significantly.
Notes: Excel used to produce chart's fitted 2nd order trends. Sources of datasets used for chart can be found by downloading this Excel spreadsheet from MS OneDrive. For the temperature, precipitation and drought (PHDI) curves, 9-month YTD through September measurements from NOAA were used. CO2 levels used for its trend curve represents the September ppm value for each year. Corn yields represent the 'commodity and market' year reported. Both corn and CO2 had beginning values set to '10' in order that they would fit on a '0' to '150' y-axis (did not affect linear trends of either). Hurricane US landfalls observations used represent a per year average from the given decade's count of events. Life expectancy data are U.S. decadal averages for female/male and all races.
Western European elites have earned a reputation as not being the brightest bulbs on planet Earth. For most Americans, that was confirmed when in 2009 the Nobel committee awarded newly-elected President Obama the Nobel Peace Prize - prior to even a single accomplishment.
As always seems to happen, the elites of Europe have finally come to their rational senses, again recognizing that emotional childish infatuations neither make-the-man nor deliver good policies.
Case in point: After years of the failed Obama policies, the Germans, who have this unfortunate tendency to become infatuated with leaders of questionable qualities, now list Obama as the 5th worst Nobel Peace Prize recipient.
That's right, one of the worst ever.
Good news for Obama, though. Germans now believe those climate-doomsday cult proponents, Al Gore and Rajendra Pachauri, rank as the 3rd worst recipients.
Gore, former V.P. of the U.S., and Pachauri, former chief of the UN's IPCC committee, once cult darlings, are being dismissed as irrelevant. And these two have been instrumental in making sure that the general public no longer is enamored with the doomsday anti-CO2 rhetoric. In fact, Germans are now burning even more dirty coal to meet their energy needs.
So, here's one to ponder: In order to get back in the EU elites' good graces, will Obama order a drone strike on the Gore/Pachauri clown-duo at the Paris COP21 climate conference?
Note: Source of Obama and drone image.
Junkscience.com has recently contacted those universities allowing staff members to claim they had won the Nobel Peace Prize. So far, in all cases, it has exclusively involved climate alarmists making the false award claims.
Universities, to their credit, have removed or modified the claims once informed.
Hmmm...maybe universities should improve their due diligence methodology or at least do adequate background checks on awards and degrees. Posting bogus information regarding their staff is likely some form of false advertising, no?
And as is often the case, not a single mainstream media outlet discovered the institutional misrepresentation.
As the site 'Not A Lot of People Know That' reports, extreme and severe rainfall (i.e. precipitation) trend has not increased in Holland, when viewed from a decadal perspective.
The adjacent chart depicts the distribution of the top 50 DeBilt, Holland rainfall events while atmospheric CO2 levels increased over the decades. (Go here to view maximum hourly precipitation incidents versus global cumulative CO2 emission tonnes since 1950.)
For the record, on any given hour during any given day, someplace in the world is likely to be experiencing an extreme weather event. But as this Holland dataset confirms, the actual empirical global and regional trends of a climatic shift of ever more severe weather events do not support the alarmists' predictions; the irrational fears of more frequent/larger weather disasters as a result of CO2 or global/regional "warming" is unjustified, per the scientific evidence.
And it is indisputable that hundreds of media outlets have extensively documented over the past century that weather catastrophes have always been a normal climate occurrence, regardless of greenhouse gas emissions.
Note: 'C3' used monthly CO2 levels from NOAA and superimposed the CO2 curve on the above chart.
Trusting the authorities and experts in the modern medical health and research fields has recently proven to be very dangerous to one's health, and costly to society.
Readers familiar with the ins-and-outs of climate science are well aware that incidents like Climategate proved that government scientists and bureaucrats, especially those with an agenda, could not be trusted to inform the public honestly.
Unfortunately for health patients, they too have blindly trusted for decades. They have trusted the advice of doctors and pharmaceutical experts claiming a "consensus" and the "settled" science that powerful statin medications must be taken to heal cardiovascular disease and prevent heart attacks.
Yet after decades of trust, the public is now learning that stains have a high potential of producing faster aging and undesirable brain effects. From the latest research:
"Statins make regular users become older faster, leaving them open to long-term mental and physical decline, according to disturbing new research...Scientists have found the heart disease drug badly affects our stem cells, the internal medical system which repairs damage to our bodies and protects us from muscle and joint pain as well as memory loss."
And it's not like the doctors and health experts had not been told that statins were proving to be dangerous. The patient anecdotal reports and medical research literature are littered with past reports of a wide variety of negative side effects that this class of pharmaceuticals has been associated with.
Despite all the damning statin evidence coming forth, the expert medical elites, with their anti-science agenda (which essentially amounted to accepting the non-evidence based claims from both pharma experts and many conflicted pharma-funded health organizations that these drugs were safe), kept pushing for the public's statin consumption to increase.
As we have stated before, it's not only the climate science advocates and their research that can't be trusted.
Simply stated: "Trust No One" and especially elites and experts with an agenda.
Of course, when the alarmists uttered these claims, they were based on the hurricane computer models that forecast Joaquin's path would strike the East Coast of the U.S. Fortunately for the coastal residents, the climate change doomsters were wrong, spectacularly.
And speaking of spectacularly wrong, the expert climate-change computer models predicted rapidly warming waters that the hurricane's path would traverse.
Instead, as the adjacent chart clearly documents, those ocean waters have cooled since 1940, not warmed as predicted. Another case of 'those stubborn facts'.
In summary, the empirical evidence again confirms that climate simulations and computer models are very suspect regarding their capabilities at both short and long-term predictions/forecasts. Governing elites, bureaucrats and the public should absolutely not base any expensive policy-making decisions on these research tools.
Government-funded climate science is not the only research field where "experts" make bogus claims, conduct fraudulent science and report only cherry-picked data.
It's recently been uncovered that young people are potentially 10 times more likely to be violent and/or suicidal if consuming prescribed antidepressant drugs.
Turns out the scientists who developed this class of drugs failed to mention that these medications would produce unwanted outcomes, and the peer-reviewed journals subsequently failed to warn the public regarding the bogus science.
"The new study, published in the journal BMJ, proves the long-suspected dangers of the drug also known as Paxil, Aropax, Extine and Paxtine. Study leader Jon Jureidini said it raised wider implications about the need for medical researchers to publish their underlying data — standard practice in genomics and astronomy, but rare in medicine."
Michael Mann's infamous 'hockey stick' graph, used by the IPCC "experts" as propaganda to convince gullible elites that modern warming was unprecedented, has had its science and respectability torn asunder by a multitude of experts over the years.
The graph's lack of both science creditability and statistical robustness eventually caused the UN's IPCC to throw in the towel and exclude it from future climate reports.
Climate research in recent years has confirmed that the hockey stick deserved the ash heap of bad paleo-science it now resides in.
This has again been proven in the latest study, which shows the non-existence of the 'hockey stick' and the rather similar (yet less) modern warming versus that of the Medieval Period. The study's summer temperature reconstruction is adjacent.
Other peer-reviewed articles.
Per NOAA, the U.S. warming pause (aka the 'Hiatus') has now achieved a 19-year stall (see adjacent chart). In fact, a slight cooling has been the trend over this period.
Remember the predicted global warming by experts? The same "experts" who predicted that hurricanes would become stronger and more frequent as a result of the global warming - which also did not happen.
As the empirical climate datasets reveal, the predicted global warming has amounted to about nil for close to two decades. And because of this, the global warming scientists recently resorted to exceptional fabrications of temperature datasets to produce "warming" that disappears the 'Pause'.
Ginning up climate change fears in anticipation of the Paris 2015 COP21 climate travesty show seems to be the driving force behind the most recent wholesale fake-warming production.
Back to the included chart. As depicted, the 19-year pause includes not only the continental U.S. (at -0.4°F per century cooling) but also the states of Virginia and Maryland, both at -0.5°F per century cooling.
Why depict those two state's temperature trends?
Because those states surround the metropolitan District of Columbia where federal bureaucrats, U.S. elected representatives and administration officials pontificate about the rapid and dangerous "global warming". These elites live and work in the D.C. micro-climate warming bubble that is a direct result of federal taxpayer asphalt, steel, concrete and airports with very hot jet exhausts, which in combination have produced a rapidly warming urban heat island (UHI).
The NOAA scientific empirical evidence is rather clear and undeniable. For most Americans, global warming is not an issue and is definitely not impacting their daily lives.
But for a minority of governing elites, who obviously created a hostile warming micro-climate for their work environment, it has made them incapable of distinguishing the climate forest from the micro-climate trees, so-to-speak. Or, put another way, they can't discern the difference between climate reality and climate fantasy.
Hmmm....maybe the best solution for saving the elites from their own, self-created hostile and climate change triggering environment is to disperse the federal government offices and personnel across rural locations throughout the U.S.
Note: The per century temperature trends for the continental U.S, Maryland, Virginia and D.C. were produced using NOAA's 12-month temperature periods ending in the month of August, through August 2015. Source of NOAA data used. NOAA images (a Zip file) of chart's calculated per century trends used.
The much embarrassing 'Pause' continues to ignore the predictions of the wrong-way IPCC and government-funded climate "scientists" - you know, the "experts" who have been long predicting end-of-the-world global warming since the late 80's.
The adjacent chart reflects poorly on the "consensus" science that unequivocally states the human CO2 emissions must first increase the lower troposphere temperatures in order to warm the Earth. This violation of the sacrosanct climate-agenda physics has become a real hiatus head-scratcher for scientists and journalists making a living off the govt-approved orthodoxy.
Despite 'those stubborn facts', the elites - i.e. bureaucrats and politicians - of the U.N. and national governments continue plans to party-in-Paris come late November, without any regard to actual climate reality. The political 'Agenda' and climate COP21 show must go on regardless of inconvenient evidence-based science.
Obama's own NOAA climate division reports that the empirical evidence documents clear and sustained cooling trends for both Alaska and the continental U.S. for the past 16 years.
Yet, when not too busy taking selfies near Alaskan glaciers, Obama spent time to prophesize about dangerous "global warming," thus exhibiting either a deep ignorance of real climate science and facts or an amazing dishonesty that journalists allowed him to get away with.
It's a sad state of affairs when a president is this badly out of touch with the evidence-based science that his own administration's science agencies are reporting.
NOAA's Alaska/US evidence also supports the global warming 'pause' that has proven to be a major embarrassment for those proponents of climate-doomsday angst.
Note: NOAA charts above based on 12-month periods ending July.