Climate scientists who are not of the payroll of 'Big Green' NGOs, nor dependent on government research grants, find it much easier to speak out against the utter nonsense and myths of anti-CO2 activists and the slimy crony-greens.
An example: As climate scientist Judith Curry indicates, there is no basis for a magical 'knob' that would allow today's politicians and bureaucrats to dial-in a desired climate outcome for next month, or the next year, or the next decade, or the next century.
The facts, simply stated: There is no science, no computer model, nor any available mechanism(s) that would allow today's humans to tweak CO2 emissions a certain way in order to produce a future climate of specific attributes by, say, 2050.
It's what is referred to as, "no frakking way."
The inner circle of establishment climate science knows this, yet due to political agenda reasons, they are forced to deliver lip service to the ludicrous 'knob' analogies.
The massive failure of billion$ climate models and the ongoing 17+ year pause in global warming provide the necessary and vivid testimonials to the fallacy of a climate thermostat knob, whether controlling natural and/or human CO2 emissions.
In addition, there is the latest empirical evidence that completely invalidates the 'knob' assertion.
This adjacent plot of 5-year temperature change versus 5-year atmospheric CO2 level change is based on the most recent empirical evidence published by the government's GISS/NASA scientists (and they happen to be some of the largest proponents of chicken little global warming calamities).
This empirical science published by NASA is undeniable, and most alarmist scientists accept, although grudgingly - the relationship between changes in atmospheric CO2 levels and changes in temperature are, at best, significantly lame weak.
Indeed, the two dataset plots reveal zero relationship with a correlation that produces a r2 barely above zero. A non-existent relationship from 1880 to the end of August 2014,
Look at the green and red fitted trends. Obviously, the green CO2 trend exhibits rapid, accelerating and even exponential growth after 1950. And the global temps? The red temperature trend depicts very little growth in temperature change, and currently exhibits a deceleration that climate models and "experts" never predicted.
In fact, one could surmise that the temperature changes reflect a natural cycle of ups/downs (ie. a pattern), which the accelerating CO2 growth has absolutely zero influence on.
Ergo, the 'control knob' proposition has the same likelihood of reality as those space alien abductions one reads about, Big Foot enrolling at Univ. of Washington, Congress balancing the budget, or Earth developing a climate of "boiling" oceans.
Which is why at least 97% of actual climate scientists categorically reject this particular brand of Hollywood anti-science fantasy.
And yes, one can be a member of the 97% who believe humans have a warming influence on climate, and yet, still completely reject the existence of this particular mythical CO2 unicorn.
Additional temperature and climate charts.
Note: Temperature dataset; CO2 datasets. Excel was used to calculate 5-yr changes (ie. differences); and to produce plots and 6th order polynomials. To calculate a 5-yr. temp. change example: subtract the August 2009 temp. anomaly from the August 2104 anomaly. The same subtraction method used to calculate 5-yr. CO2 level (ppm) changes. Starting with January 1885, the 5-yr chg. calculations can be made for each subsequent month (GISS/NASA monthly dataset commences at January 1880).
Delusional fantasies? Pretty strong stuff one might say.
Oh well, let's review just six actual climate science facts to make the case.
===>First, we know that these same scientists don't even know where over 50% of CO2 emissions disappear to...
===>Second, we know (and these same scientists know) that the global temperature change response to CO2 has declined significantly - opposite of the IPCC's "consensus expert" predictions...
===>Third, we know that these same scientists have been predicting rapid, continuous, accelerating dangerous global warming for decades but it hasn't happened...
===>Fourth, since it is agreed by 97% of all climate scientists that global warming has essentially stopped for 17+ years (only the fringe quacks disavow this), these same bureaucrat/academia scientists have come up with an overflowing cornucopia of reasons why, which reveal absolutely zero consensus...
===>Fifth, we know that the $billion$ super computer climate models used by these same scientists are fatally flawed, thus absolutely worthless regarding future global and regional climate predictions...
===>Finally, as this accompanying chart of the empirical evidence indicates, while the per cent change in cumulative CO2 emissions dropped in a quasi-continuous pattern since 1979, the RSS annual global temperatures anomalies instead follow an opposite increasing trend.
Simply put, all the above scientific evidence falsifies the entire concept of a CO2 "control knob" for the world's climate.
Yet these on-the-dole scientists keep promoting this delusional, all-powerful climate "knob" fantasy at the major expense of not only the taxpayer pockets, but also the gargantuan expense of sound climate policy-making being derailed from the track of common sense and rationality.
Ahh...those stubborn facts just always seem to muck up the climate delusional dreams and nightmares of so many knob-fanatics and control-freaks.
Note: From this multiple dataset, an estimate of total human CO2 emissions from 1751 to 2013 can be calculated. Since the RSS satellite monthly dataset only goes back to 1979, the chart plots the annual per cent change in cumulative CO2 emissions since 1979 (starting with the calculated cumulative emissions from 1751-1979). The RSS plot represents the 12-month (year-end) average anomalies. Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
This list of "consensus" science continues to grow faster than a CO2 ppm bullet.
Currently, the list is up to #52 but we kept it to 50 for this infographic (okay, okay... poster). When 8 more are added, we'll do the #60 poster.
The known climate science of global warming is not a mystery. It is well documented climate physics that just about every scientist agrees with. And for the layperson, it's not terribly difficult to confirm.
To do so, one needs the following:
1. A global temperature dataset
3. A spreadsheet to make the necessary calculations and then plot the outcome.
These items were used to produce the adjacent chart. Five different time periods were chosen, then the warming (degree C) per CO2 tonne was calculated for each time period.
The resulting datapoints were then plotted and connected with a fitted trend (6th order).
Clearly, this actual climate science empirical evidence substantiates the known climate physics.
With this confirmation, one could assume that all warming since 1850 was due to human CO2 emissions, but then the logical conclusion is cast in concrete science - CO2's impact is shrinking towards zero, as observed, and likely will have even a smaller global warming impact in the future.
Note: The chart's fitted trend provides a sense of direction in the past but it has unreliable predictive qualities (if any). Why 1950-2013? Because the IPCC claims human CO2 is principal cause of warming since 1950. Why 1988-2013? Because in 1988, NASA's James Hansen testified that CO2 warming was accelerating and dangerous (it's been neither). Why 1997-2013? Because, it's been approximately 17 years with the 'paused' global warming. The 1850-2014 period assumes 17.5 gigatonnes of CO2 for first 7 months of 2014. Used 12-month HadCRUT averages to calculate deg/tonne.
Adjacent are the top 5 reasons the global warming hysteria has failed.
They are called empirical evidence - datasets of temperature observations confirming there has been no statistically significant warming for over 15+ years.
The "consensus" "experts" and billion dollar computer climate models predicted that human CO2 emissions would generate accelerating, catastrophic global warming.
But it hasn't happened - ooops!
Note: Atmosphere datasets (RSS & UAH); Global datasets (HadCRUT4 & NASA/GISS); Ocean dataset (HadSST3)
All politicians, bureaucrats and scientists are prone to ludicrous exaggerations, lame mistruths and outright lies as techniques to frighten and push the general public towards accepting an agenda...and leftists, socialists, marxists, progressives and liberals are really exceptional talents in this art of public deception...some very recent climate-liar examples:
"Climate change is the most consequential, urgent, sweeping collection of challenges we face" (Hillary Clinton)..."confronting climate change” is “a duty or responsibility laid down in scriptures" (John Kerry)...“Climate change is so much more consequential than ISIS ever was" (Leading Democrat consultant)...“we are not very far” from the point where climate change should be declared an international public health emergency" (UN's Christiana Figueres).....
Any political success that is achieved by deceit, hyperbole and hysteria always requires a sacrifice of the empirical evidence and unbiased science.
Yet it is scientific facts and methodologies that ultimately win...it follows that the public can only be mislead for so long.
Despite the extremist hyperbole and doomsday-cult scenario hysteria, the science of climate change is rather mundane, from a long-term view: it gets cold and, OMG!, then it gets hot, with some periods of in-between. Climate change is constantly in play; and humans can no more stop its chaotic version of ebbs and flows, let alone ever controlling a single cloud, thunderstorm, hurricane or tornado.
This chart, from the science journal New Scientist, is a prime exhibit of real-world scientific evidence that reveals how inconsequential today's climate change is compared to all previous climate change.
From the chart, it is clear that extreme climate change is a constant; there have been much higher and lower temperatures in the past; modern climate temperatures are not excessive in the least; and, the purported human-induced, "dangerous" modern temperature warming is only a fraction of past natural increases.
We say purported, because our existence is taking place during a global cooling phase (look at chart closely and note the pale blue areas) which is rather long-in-the-tooth, and at some point would normally rebound to warmer temperatures, just naturally. Indeed, the entire warming since the Little Ice Age is likely to be predominantly a natural response to the prior millenniums of extended cooling.
As the chart's inset clarifies, the modern warming since the end of 1949 has been very modest, being completely within the bounds of previous ancient and geological warmings that have been identified by empirical science.
And the "tipping point" warming has become even more modest during the 21st century:
Note: Added the red and blue lines to above New Science chart. The added lines represent the HadCRUT4 global 60-month average temperatures at December 1855, December 1949 and July 2014.
The CAGW global warming hypothesis is rather straightforward: increasing atmospheric CO2 would warm the world in an accelerating, out-of-control manner.
For the adjacent chart, that indeed would be the case, if we pretended the green curve represented global temperature and the red curve atmospheric CO2.
But it's just the opposite in reality.
As the chart depicts over 12 different time periods (all ending July 2014), reality is that while CO2 levels keep increasing over time, the long-term temperature warming trend (the red curve) is not rapidly accelerating towards a tipping point of climate catastrophe.
What about shorter-term? (Okay, okay we won't mention this inconvenient fact.)
Well, note the 3-year period mark. Over the last 3 years, the CO2 level has increased by 7ppm and the warming acceleration "spiked" at 3.8°C per century. To put that "acceleration" in historical context, during July 1915 the global warming trend had a real spike...a 15.4°C per century spike without any meaningful increase of CO2 over the prior 3 years.
Note: Monthly GISS temperature dataset source. All chart time periods end as of July 2014. Used Excel to calculate trends utilizing the built-in slope function; plots created by Excel. Monthly CO2 levels estimated from a combination of source-1 and source-2. Interpreting the chart: for example, over the 60-year period ending July 2014, CO2 ppm increased by 86 and the GISS per century warming trend for the last 60 years was 1.3°C.
Science is based on research and empirical evidence, not on speculative guesses or those "likely" predictions from computer simulations.
Over the last few decades, the IPCC and its computer climate models have speculated that Antarctica was melting due to all the human CO2 emissions released into the atmosphere.
CO2 emissions that were producing accelerating and dangerous global warming that was being "amplified" across the South Pole.
Democrats, the mainstream media and green progressives have continuously repeated these flimsy, fear-mongering predictions as science "truth," representing the mythical "consensus." Yet, they conveniently ignore the actual hard empirical evidence and real scientific research that the American public has paid for.
Case in point: The South Pole
A brand new peer-reviewed research study conducted by MIT scientists confirm what NASA's satellites have documented (see adjacent chart) - Antarctica is cooling. Ahem...those inconvenient stubborn facts just hurt, no?
"By contrast, the eastern Antarctic and Antarctic plateau have cooled, primarily in summer, with warming over the Antarctic Peninsula [C3 Ed: approximately 4% of Antarctica land mass]...Moreover, sea-ice extent around Antarctica has modestly increased.....In other words, the authors find that most of the Antarctic continent has cooled, rather than just the Southern Ocean..."
Mental disorders are a such a wasteful tragedy - coming in waves to affect portions of the feeble-minded, never seemingly to be entirely eliminated from the genetic pool.
Some metal disorders, such as the 'compulsive climate change obsession' (or 'C3O' as some wags might put it), probably dates back to the start of humanity. As hunter-gathers worried whether a given day's strange weather was the harbinger of imminent death and destruction for all by angry goods or a vengeful nature.
You say you don't believe that this disorder exists, or that natural climate change never invoked such silly, useless and obsessive behavior in the past?
While watching the 'Global Warming War' movie, I came across a pleasant surprise - a unique 'C3' temperature chart made it into the movie. When I saw the chart, I made sure to download it so I can keep it for posterity and retain for screen-capture proof, if the need ever arises. (And am I going to buy their movie DVD? Nope...gee, I wonder why?)
Other than the movie using the 'same old, same old' talking heads, it is an excellent presentation of the key facts defining the debate. It certainly makes a very strong case that global warming skeptics rely on the empirical evidence and science, while alarmist arguments are more about emotions, not the facts.
The movie also does a great job of using animations to explain the various scientific topics.
Overall, a good investment of time providing a decent education of the debate for the layperson.
If you feel so inclined, buy a DVD copy (or several) and provide it to you your local public schools to be used when they do the inevitable annual showing of Gore's alarmist propaganda movie.
And Democrat Governor Jay Inslee is no different. He wants the crony-capitalist, corporate welfare "Billionaires Club" to buy the voters in an upcoming election. His tactic is to use anti-science rhetoric based on fear-mongering - namely, human CO2 emissions are "acidifying" the sea waters of the local oyster environment, thus supposedly harming the valuable shellfish harvest.
Big problem, though. The main culprit for the oyster mortality is due to a combination of natural processes, agricultural chemical runoff, low oxygen and a nasty shellfish-maurading bacteria more than the changing pH of sea water.
In fact, the daily natural pH levels change dramatically in local waters without any consequences to oysters, yet Democrat politicians and billionaires plan to totally mislead the state's voting public with false political advertising.
The science of "ocean acidification" from human CO2 is strictly hysterical conjecture - so much so that even the Obama EPA admits there is no basis from the empirical evidence.
"The EPA’s response is that there is insufficient evidence to support an endangerment finding...“There were no in situ field studies documenting adverse effects on the health of aquatic life populations in either state,” the EPA’s motion says. “Nor was there any other information documenting effects on indigenous populations of aquatic life in state waters indicating stressors attributable to ocean acidification"..."
So, since there is absolutely no real science to support the CO2-kills-oysters claims of the Democrat governor, he thus turns to an out-of-state billionaire buddy in hopes of just buying the election.
""Mr. Steyer’s strategy is to spend heavily this fall to help defeat sitting lawmakers who oppose Mr. Inslee’s agenda and pave the way for the governor to move his policies through next year — an example, his critics say, of the insidious influence of big money from outsiders that makes local elections less local...“Mr. Steyer has not said what he will spend in the districts, but his previous pattern indicates it will be hundreds of thousands of dollars for each candidate — a huge amount for a Washington State race.""
And why do out-of-state billionaires want to do this? Well, for sure, their current living styles, nor their past endeavors to create billion-dollar portfolios, indicates they give a flying f*^k about the climate.
Instead...ahem...maybe it's about more money. A lot more money, flowing from the political favors of tax-payer subsidized renewable energy into the pockets of billionaires, plus getting politicians to impose new environmental rules on fossil fuels and nuclear to make them wildly more expensive and billionaire renewable interests more competitive.
For their renewable investments to make a lot of money, the billionaires have to think big and especially rely on election-buying crony capitalism to achieve their goals it would appear - goals that immensely hurt the wallets of the other 99%.
"Climate-policy advocates and solar investors, including hedge fund billionaire Tom Steyer and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, called for renewable energy financing to double by 2020 in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent. They also said the world should obtain at least 30 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2020, and that renewable energy investment should double again, to $1 trillion, by 2030."
Update: Fact-checkers reveal Steyer's climate claims not the real deal.
Previous ocean-acidification articles
Okay...yes, we are exaggerating just a wee-bit here by claiming '40' with our additions of Sharknados and Bush...but heck, by next weekend it's going to exceed that measly '40' count.
And btw, thank-you "97% consensus" scientists! Ain't climate change alarmism just grand?
As the "experts" climate models prediction failures widen while we get deeper into the 21st century, it behooves policymakers and the public to acknowledge that CO2-centric climate models are neither reliable, nor very helpful for policy making.
These gigantic black holes of research dollars essentially suck huge research monies from other scientific fields, while at the same time never being held accountable for their well documented failures.
In contrast, scientists pursuing other avenues of climate research have developed low-cost climate models - not based on the mind-numbing orthodoxy of CO2-alarmism - that are proving to be gigantic improvements over the consensus, high-cost models.
Adjacent is one such model. Clearly, this non-CO2 driven model has performed spectacularly, in a relative fashion, during the period that NASA, NOAA and IPCC models have been abysmal.
At its most essential, Dr. N. Scafetta's model is driven by the oscillations and cycles of influence that exist between Earth, the Moon, the Sun and other solar system planets. The tug, push and pull amongst these various annual, decadal and millennial oscillations/cycles ultimately has an impact on global climate.
By identifying the attributes and periodicity of these oscillations, a 'harmonic' model can be constructed to better predict long-term where the global climate is headed. As can be seen, this harmonic model appears to have a lot more explanatory power regarding the climate versus the traditional (wildly expensive) alarmist computer simulations.
More on Duke University's Scafetta (a man with some 70+ scientific papers to his name) and his harmonic model can be found here.
Previous climate-model articles.
Note: Scafetta's model chart has been updated with an estimated June 2014 HadCRUT3 global temperature anomaly. HC3 estimate was based on recent HC4 June 2014 anomaly.
Hoping that millions of people face death and destruction from a hurricane to promote an agenda of Democrat party politics is pretty freaking sick, unequivocally.
Like many whack-job global warming alarmists before him, he becomes an honorary member of The Very 'Sick-Fưck' Club.
Seriously, at a minimum, his family should intervene and not let him use Twitter any longer, unless of course he's already killed them all to reduce the family CO2 footprint.
The vicious combination of climate "experts" driven by a political-alarmist agenda and the indisputably incompetent climate models has long misled the taxpaying public and policymakers.
As the NOAA chart of the Great Lakes on the left clearly indicates, water levels are above the long-term averages. The predicted "tipping point" water level reduction from global warming and climate change is AWOL.
The frequent and spectacular prediction failures of the computer simulations and experts has been widely noted in the past.
Millennial-scale climate variability over the last 12,000 years has been well recorded by a wide range of proxies. The adjacent chart plots 29 of those proxies, presenting a striking case for the past global variation during the Holocene climate.
A recent peer-reviewed study analyzed the frequent Holocene climate change and came to the following conclusion:
"...although we cannot totally discount the volcanic and solar forcing hypotheses, we are left to consider that the most plausible source for Holocene millennial-scale variability lies within the climate system itself." In particular, as they continue, "Upper Circumpolar Deep Water (UCDW) variability coincided with deep North Atlantic changes, indicating a role for the deep ocean in Holocene millennial-scale variability."
The fact remains that all previous, and frequent, Holocene climate change was entirely due to natural forces, be they ocean-based (or other earthly/cosmic) forces. Human CO2 did not cause any of the past numerous climate change phases, which is highly suggestive that our modern climate change is likely more a result of the same ocean impacts - feel Occam's razor.
One other comment regarding the 12,000-year Holocene proxy chart. The average of the 29 proxies reveals an interesting tidbit that has actually been recognized by the majority of scientists: the average is at its highest some 5 to 7,000 years ago.
Essentially, we exist today in a climate phase of a long-term cooling.
And you thought America's breadbasket was turning into a scorched, summer-month desert based, of course, on the "expert consensus" climate science, no?
As this NOAA chart depicts, an 85-year cooling trend during the June/July months, affecting the huge corn and soybean and agricultural regions, is without any doubt.
NOAA empirical climate records document the 1°F/century cooling that will severely diminish corn and soybean yields if it continues.
The "expert" predictions that this breadbasket area would be scorched by global warming, due to human CO2 emissions, has proven to be incredibly wrong.
Consensus, dogmatic science about "global" warming, which NOAA confirms to be incorrect, continues to mislead American farmers about the cooling trend.
Note: Chart source. (Display options: average temp; 2-month; July; 1929; 2014; Primary Corn and Soybean Belt; Display Trend; 1929; 2014; Show Smoothed Time Series; click blue Plot button)
As the empirical evidence continues to build, the IPCC, its computer climate models and its associated alarmist climate scientists have just an unbelievable, undeniably miserable record at prediction.
The latest edition to the failed prediction list is well documented:
"Specifically, US hurricanes have not become more frequent or intense, so there is simply no basis to expect an increase in normalized losses. Of course, this analysis has been replicated several times as well, using different methods and loss data."
The supposed extreme climate change caused by human CO2 emissions is not producing the predicted increase of intensity and frequency of regional flooding.
A new study conducted by experts comes to an unsettling truth: the consensus climate science of the IPCC, CAGW alarmists and computer models has been spectacularly wrong.
"In a massive review of the subject conducted by a team of seventeen researchers hailing from eleven different countries, i.e., Kundzewicz et al. (2013), we learn the following:
(1) "no gauge-based evidence has been found for a climate-driven, globally widespread change in the magnitude/frequency of floods during the last decades,"
(2) "there is low confidence in projections of changes in fluvial floods, due to limited evidence and because the causes of regional changes are complex,"
(3) "considerable uncertainty remains in the projections of changes in flood magnitude and frequency,"
(4) increases in global flood disaster losses reported over the last few decades "may be attributed to improvements in reporting, population increase and urbanization in flood-prone areas, increase of property value and degraded awareness about natural risks (due to less natural lifestyle),"
(5) "the linkages between enhanced greenhouse forcing and flood phenomena are highly complex and, up to the present, it has not been possible to describe the connections well, either by empirical analysis or by the use of models," and
(6) "the problem of flood losses is mostly about what we do on or to the landscape," which they say "will be the case for decades to come.""
WUWT had a recent article regarding the continuous diminishing impact of CO2 on global temperatures.
The indisputable physics of climate science states that for every molecule of CO2 added to the atmosphere, that molecule will have a smaller impact than the one before it.
This diminishing return of CO2 is a well known logarithmic function, as described here.
This most recent article elaborates even further on the ever-sooner trivial CO2 influence, which the author summarizes in this manner:
===>"The committed Nations by their actions alone, whatever the costs they incurred to themselves, might only ever effect virtually undetectable reductions of World temperature. So it is clear that all the minor but extremely expensive attempts by the few convinced Western nations at the limitation of their own CO2 emissions will be inconsequential and futile."
A visualization of the diminishing CO2 impact is revealed by the adjacent top graph. Its plot is a simple ratio of total temperature change divided by atmospheric CO2 (ppm) change since January 1850.
As the graph clearly depicts, the ratio declines in the direction of zero as the growing total of added CO2 produces less and less global warming. Ergo, the climate's sensitivity to CO2 emission is shrinking, constantly.
The bottom graph is the same ratio but only for the shorter period, dating from January 1950 to June 2014. Obviously, the huge increase of atmospheric CO2 from the modern period's industrial/consumer engine has indeed produced a diminishing impact on global temperatures.
This is the empirical evidence that the IPCC and CAGW alarmists never want to talk about as it provides the proof that human CO2 emissions will not be causing massive climate calamities. Yes...those same scary catastrophes always being portrayed by the 97% "consensus" Hollywood science and the robustly gullible mainstream press.
Note: Using January 1850 as the base temperature anomaly and CO2 level month, the total change for both parameters was calculated for each subsequent month. Then for each subsequent month, the total temperature change from the base month was divided by the total CO2 ppm change - a ratio, maybe best described as the amount of temperature change produced by a molecule of CO2. The HadCRUT4 monthly global dataset was used for numerator calculations; denominator calculated from the combined CO2 datasets found here and here.
As this NPR article documents (click on image), modern U.S. western region wildfire occurrence (and severity), despite the huge increase atmospheric CO2, is below what took place during historical and ancient times.
The latest research, including the three new studies cited by NPR, is unequivocal about this.
Yet the Obama White House and its science "advisor" tout recent wildfire anecdotal stories without a single reference to the actual empirical evidence of the past - and even no mention of the modern wildfire evidence.
Ahem...that for most people is known as 'lying,' plain and simple. Surprised?
Previous severe/exteme weather articles.
The experts now estimate that the number of undernourished has decreased some 17%, from 1990 to 2103 - approximately 165 million less. Yet for the IPCC's 2014 AR5 report, they report an increase of 75 million.
There is no scientific reason, nor objective rationale for the IPCC misleading policymakers and the public so egregiously.
As Climate Audit concludes about this absurd discrepancy:
"Rather than using up-to-date FAO data showing a steady decline in undernourishment during a period of increasing temperatures (which they either were aware of or ought to have been aware of), the IPCC chose to feature an increase in an obsolete data set that had been previously highlighted in an “policy-relevant monograph” cited by IPCC. IPCC coyly described this earlier dataset as “provisional”...Why didn’t IPCC clearly report the long-term decline in undernourishment during a period of temperature increase. This is information that is relevant to policy-makers. And, in particular, why did IPCC highlight a supposed increase in “provisional” data (more precisely now long obsolete data) when the increase changed to a decrease in the up-to-date version of the data?...It’s hard to think of a good reason."
To the numbers:
===> The EPA is proposing a 30% reduction of power plant CO2 emissions from 2005 levels
===> The reductions are expected to reduce U.S. economic growth by some $2 trillion
===> Consumers of electricity can expect their rates to increase by 10% per year
===> The CO2 regulations will likely reduce employment by 600,000, plus make U.S. manufacturing (huge consumers of electricity) even less competitive
===> Finally, per an expert computer analysis of the CO2 reductions, based on the known physics of climate science, the expected global temperature increase by 2100AD will be smaller, by an immeasurable, undetectable, trivial 0.02 degree, and that's rounded up.
The chart tells the factual story.
The IPCC is predicting global temperatures to be about 16°C by 2100. And with the EPA reductions? They still expect global temperatures to be about 16 degrees (15.98°).
And if global temperatures exceed the IPCC prediction and climb to 18 or 20 degrees by 2100, what then will be the EPA reduction impact? Still squat, since the global temperature averted will not change from 0.02°C.
What could make this 'squat' result even more embarrassingly bad for Americans? The evil CO2 twins, China and India.
While the U.S. has reduced its emissions by 7% over the last 5 years, China and India have increased theirs a combined 32%. The EPA enforced CO2 reduction will not only make Americans poorer, any global warming reduction will be completely wiped out and vastly exceeded by other nation's (America's global competitors) huge CO2 increases.
Talk about freaking and amazingly stupid bureaucrats gone wild.
Even the progressive liberal New Republic recognizes the non-existent temperature impact of the Democrats' CO2 regulations on global warming:
"The goal of these regulations is not to stop global warming, but to prove to the international community that the U.S. is ready to pay additional costs to combat climate change."
Hey, not that anyone is keeping close track of when Obama will depart from the White House, and gee whiz, not that anyone keeps track of the global warming and climate exaggerations emanating from his administration...this stuff just seems to happen, ya' know...why should anyone care when the empirical and scientific evidence is totally ignored by elected Democrat officials?...go figure!, racist, denier, fellow citizen, comrade....
The current occupant of the Oval Office has now been there 66 full months. The adjacent temperature trends depict the first full 65 months of his administration, through June 2014 (July 2014 anomalies not yet available).
Simply stated, since Obama's tenure began, both U.S. and global temperatures have experienced a cooling trend - not the dangerous, rapid global warming from CO2 that he and other Democrats brazenly predicted, and still speak of like the crazy old uncle in the attic.
Okay, it's 2,024 days checked off and only 899 days to go. Wouldn't it be great if President Obama just decided to go out in style with the truth that Americans now abundantly know (and desire from their leaders) versus pushing indefensible lies that aren't supported by any empirical evidence? Oh well...we can wish for utopia, no?
Update: Go To Top 40 Reason List
In attempts to solve this science mystery, climate scientists have developed multiple hypotheses to explain this phenomenon.
Yep, their explanations are now up to 30...okay, maybe it's 29, plus one the climate alarmistas are currently testing on mainstream journalists.
Well, so much for 97% consensus of climate science, eh?
To the left, the current 'hiatus' hypothesis list is summarized.
Original top ten list here.
Note: #28 and #29 on list mention names of WUWT contributors (lame inside joke for WUWT regular readers).
A combination of fanatical green activists and wealthy crony-capitalists has produced a strong influence over the Obama administration and its climate policies/regulations ...Democrats in Congress have also been bought off...unfortunately for the American public, these corrupting motivations lead the government and bureaucrats down policy paths that ignore climate history and its science.....
"What's the weather tomorrow?" 'Been, there, done that'
"What will the climate be 10 years from now?" 'Been there, done that.'
Regardless of human activities and human CO2 emissions, the climate and weather have a strong, built-in natural rhythm that takes place, relentlessly.
The scientific evidence is unequivocal about this: the global climate repeats itself.
The adjacent chart plots the scientific empirical evidence - the globe naturally cycles through periods of extreme cooling and warming. And as the evidence reveals, the Obama/Kerry climate-porn duo exist during a period of cooling, not the extreme accelerating global warming that they claim.
For context, the chart extends back to the 1850s, with major peaks in the global warming trend identified with the president occupying the Oval Office at the time.
Note that the highest peaks (ie. dangerous and rapid global warming) took place prior to 1950 and the modern era's industrial/consumer CO2 emissions. Note also that after peaks were reached, the climate naturally repeated its cooling phase - every single freaking time.
And because presidents and Democrats during those times did not deny the natural cyclical peaks and valleys of the global climate, they did not end up making fools of themselves by claiming that CO2 'vapors' had given the world a fever from a runaway, tipping point warming.
By understanding the nature of the 'been there, done that' climate, past politicians did not hysterically succumb to the likes of today's anti-science charlatans advocating the deindustrialization of America, and the hypocritical snake-oil cronies wanting to steal from the American taxpayers' wallet.
Put another way, past politicians accepted those stubborn facts of empirical science, no matter how inconvenient.
Note: June 2014 HadCRUT4 global monthly dataset used in Excel to produce chart. The chart plots moving 5-year (60-month) slopes converted to per century trends.
Leftists, progressives, Democrats, liberals, socialists, crony-capitalists, communists, politicians, UN bureaucrats, crony-scientists, mainstream journalists and Hollywood celebrities are acknowledged as the world's climate-porn stars, as well as being in dire need of a basic manual titled 'Climate for Dummies'...their statements regarding global warming and climate change continue to be living proof that stuck-on-stupid and cluelessness are in a constant battle to dominate the leftward thinking brain.....
===> "The planet is running a fever and there are no emergency rooms" - Democrat Senator Markey from Massachusetts
===> "We no longer need storms or hurricanes to produce flooding - it is becoming an everyday occurrence" - Anne Burchard, the Sierra Club
===> "It's kind of like telling a little girl who's trying to run across a busy street to catch a school bus to go for it, knowing there's a substantial chance that she'll be killed." - MIT professor Kerry Emanuel regarding critics of his opinion that catastrophic global warming disasters are today's climate
===> "It’s time for climate-change deniers to face reality’ – ‘They’re fiddling while the planet burns" - NY Daily News editorial page
===> "MSNBC segment claims that climate change could make a real ‘Sharknado’ happen" - a Comcast-owned Obama propaganda outlet
===> "And this, to me, is the most important film [Sharknado 2] ever made about climate change. There is no film, TV thing, special anything, more important than this film." - Actor, Judah Friedlander
===> "A new report says redheads might one day be extinct...when climate change brings an end to cool mist, the climate for red hair will also disappear." - Diane Sawyer, a TV "journalist", U.S. ABC News
===> "NYU Professor: Solve climate change by making people smaller" - S. Matthew Liao, instructor of bioethics at New York University
===> "Weather is not climate, you willfully ignorant fucksticks.” - obviously, the very "professional" CNN reporter, Bill Weir
Now, climate change comments like these have been part and parcel nonsense from the left-wing nutcases for over 100 years. As can be readily seen here, climate calamities are the 'forever' essential fear-mongering tactics used by elites and disaster-whσres to convince the public. (Additional crazed quotes from the "elites".)
So, are the catastrophe rantings and hate emanating from liberal, progressive Democrats a result of some combination of incredible ignorance and stupendous stupidity regarding climate science?
If so, then maybe a book titled 'Climate for Dummies' would be a welcome science reading assignment for left-wing malnourished brains. Needless to say, said book should include a chapter on the science of temperature trends, made as simple as possible for those addicted to global warming calamity-porn.
Our contribution to the book will be the adjacent "Warming" Speedometer, which is a very simple visual aid to help liberal/progressive/Democrats put those really, really hard concepts of per century temperature trends into a proper context. (click on speedometer to enlarge)
For example, this simple decile infographic displays the entire range of 10-year global warming/cooling trends in per century terms since 1860. What could a climate-porn elite learn from this simple visual aid? (And help them from sounding like an uninformed idiot...)
Conclusions that a progressive/leftist elite might be able to reach from the simple "warming" speedometer of actual empirical evidence?
Hmm...let's see...that the approximate 1.5 trillion tonnes of human CO2 emissions (since the industrial age began) has not given Earth an accelerating fever that is causing the planet to burn - that's an unavoidable, rational and informed assessment of climate reality. And also that the world's modern climate, through June 2014, experienced a wide range of temperature trends (which are similar to the historical and ancient natural climate gyrations).
But as many have discovered to their dismay, empirical science means that liberal Democrats actually have to connect-the-dots, which apparently the climate-porn disorder prevents.
Note: Highest temperature trends (per century, based on 120-month calculations) for each decile noted on Speedometer (bottom decile also has lowest listed). HadCRUT4 global dataset used in Excel analysis. Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
Multi-billions have been invested into climate science, with a special emphasis on climate models.
Despite the massive expenditures, the climate models utilized by the IPCC continue to be ginormous failures for the purpose of prediction.
The adjacent chart depicts this continuing pattern of failure by comparing the 3-year average of observed temperatures (HadCRUT4) versus the output of state-of-the-art CMIP5 models. The dataset plots reflect the most current values through June 2014.
The chart is also a testament to the unmitigated disaster of basing computer models almost exclusively on the influence of trace atmospheric gas CO2 instead of the natural climate cycles and oscillations that dominate the world of climate reality.
Of course, the CAGW argument has been (and continues to be) that huge CO2 emissions have produced extremely hot weather records during the 1980's, 90's and the 21st century, so far. But is it true?
Well, as pointed out earlier this year, the feared global warming is not producing the proclaimed hotter temperature records across the world.
And for the U.S.? NOAA confirms the same through June 2014. It is empirically true that the climate alarministas fear-mongering about record-setting extremes are without merit.
Case in point. This collection of charts depict NOAA's climate record frequency for maximum monthly temperatures across the contiguous U.S.
Figure #1 is the record of the 5% hottest months since 1980 in the U.S. Out of 409 months (34+ years), these 20 months represent the extreme. (The light blue data-points are the climate records since 1980 for all charts.)
Figure #2 is the 409-month record starting in 1920. These are the extreme 5% hottest months in the U.S. prior to the 1960s. (The dull red data-points are the climate records since 1920 for all charts.)
Figure #3 reveals that there have been zero months in the U.S. since 1980 that have had over 90 degree monthly averages. In contrast, the 1930's had two. In addition, for the period prior to 1980, there have been 57 months that averaged over 85 degrees while the period since 1980 there have been only 54.
Figure #4 plots the 60 hottest months for the two periods. Clearly, the pre-modern era produced hotter monthly records. These top 60 month plots represent the extreme 14.3% of each respective period.
For CO2 context, total global CO2 emissions are listed for each period (past and modern) on figures #1 and #2. The modern era emission tonnes are higher by a factor of 5+.
The evidence could not be clearer. Huge CO2 emissions, and higher atmospheric CO2 levels, do not correlate with a greater frequency of higher monthly maximum temperature records. This is indisputable.
Does this mean there won't be new record maximum temperatures set in the future? No, it does not. But, with that said, it is highly probable that future maximum records and their frequency have absolutely zero to do with greater CO2 emissions.
Ɗaɱn those stubborn facts!
Note: Source of U.S. maximum monthly temperatures since 1895 (choose Maximum temperature; choose 1895 and 2014; choose Previous 12-months; choose June; click plot button; scroll down and click Excel icon to download data; in Excel, select period june 1920 thru june 1964 and period june 1980 thru june 2014 (these are the two 409-month periods used in charts);and then sort each period by largest to smallest monthly temperatures. Modern CO2 emission tonnes and past emission tonnes.
Two recent studies demonstrate the absolute futility of policymakers listening to climate modelers (and their billion dollar climate models) who continually predict climate calamities - a prediction record with zero successes.
The first peer reviewed study determines that today's climate models will never be able to predict the climate. Essentially, climate models assume linear climate relationships yet the real-world climate is non-linear and chaotic - defying intermediate and long-term predictive "expertise" with predictable regularity.
The second study clearly documents the abysmal prediction failure foisted on the public and politicians by the climate modelers. The climate models have long predicted a tropical hotspot in the atmosphere due to CO2 emissions; but actual scientific research reveals that the feared, mythical, runaway "tipping point" hotspot remains non-existent.
The hotspot tipping point, per the climate modelers, is supposedly in the process of turning Earth's atmosphere into a Venus replica, making Earth uninhabitable. But is that realistically happening?
The adjacent chart provides the indisputable, empirical evidence to answer that question unequivocally - NO!
The chart's red column is the Venus atmosphere's temperature at the 10km altitude. A conservative estimated temperature is still an incredibly hot 350°C.
In contrast, the chart's dark blueish columns show the Earth's atmosphere at the same altitude is an incredibly frigid temperature of minus 75C degrees. Yes, our tropical atmosphere is some 425 degrees colder.
Ahem....what freaking Venus-like tropical hotspot?! IT DOES NOT EXIST.
Of course, the climate moderlers stuck-on-stupid-Venus, don't mention this amazingly obvious climate fact. Instead, they focus on how Earth's tropical atomosphere is "accelerating" towards a Venus-like hotspot tipping point.
Accelerating? Barely creeping at a glacial pace would be more accurate.
Examine the chart closely. Since the beginning of the 1980's, humanity has poured some 860 billion CO2 tonnes into the atmosphere; atmospheric CO2 levels keep climbing (see yellow boxes); yet, the average tropical atmospheric temperature has essentially not budged (see red dotted baseline) over 3+ decades of modern consumer/industrial human emissions.
The solution to climate science reality and better policy? 'TRUST NO ONE CLIMATE MODEL' should be stamped on every CO2-centric climate model prediction and report that is handed to politicians and policymakers.
Then this type of anti-science insanity preached by the climate modelers would finally be D.O.A., never again to poison a public scientific debate with "runaway" catastrophic climate absurdities.
Note: Source of approximate 10km Venus temperature; source of approximate Earth's troposphere temperature; source of approximate tropical latitude troposphere temperatures; source of lower tropical atmosphere temperature change since 1979; source of total CO2 emission tonnes since 1979; source of peak CO2 ppm levels for each decade.
A prior 'C3' article documented the current normality of extreme drought across the globe.
With that said, the western U.S. is currently experiencing a very bad drought. If it's the start of another 200-year mega-drought, which plagued the area prior to the 1700's, there will be some very serious problems.
But for the entire U.S., NOAA reports that recent precipitation levels are normal - extreme high or low precipitation levels are not the norm.
The chart on the left is a plot of NOAA monthly measurements of precipitation since 1895, through June 2014. (NOAA dataset source) The black dots represent the moving 5-year (60-month) average of atmospheric CO2 levels.
The dark blue curve is the simple 60-month moving average of precipitation; the red line denotes the average monthly rainfall over the 1,434 months. As can be seen, the moving average is just about parked on top of the overall average - the declared current climate extremes purported by alarmists do not exist for the U.S. (nor for the globe as the prior article pointed out).
The total lack of precipitation extremes over the last 15+ years is completely counter to the CO2-based CAGW hypothesis that alarmists believe in fervently.
And what about other climate change "extremes" they hypothesize - well, the charts tell the real science story.
On this article's chart, the past extremes have been denoted (see color dots). Clearly, weather extremes can happen on a monthly basis, but they are rare, with no apparent association to CO2. Extended extreme precipitation levels over decades are literally non-existent in the NOAA climate record database.
Those Stubborn Facts: U.S. climate extremes of excess/minimal precipitation (rainfall and snow) are not evident in the recent climate record. The alarmist hypothesis that human CO2 causes modern precipitation extremes does not hold water, so to speak.
Previous severe weather/climate articles.
The latest research is conclusive, and confirms previous studies from multiple authors.
===>"The absence of trends in normalized disaster burden indicators appears to be largely consistent with the absence of trends in extreme weather events. This conclusion is more qualitative for the number of people killed. As a consequence, vulnerability is also largely stable over the period of analysis."
H/T: Roger Pielke Jr
For most CAGW skeptics, this finding is not a surprise since skeptics tend to be much more knowledgeable about past weather disasters. Previous weather disasters from the early 20th century were worse in many cases, and fully documented by the mainstream press at the time.
Additional severe weather/disaster/climate articles.
As almost everyone (alarmists and skeptics) agrees, climate change is continuous, accompanied by associated temperature changes. Based on the common measurement techniques utilized, over the last two decades the globe has warmed.
However, with that said, the last 15 years of global warming has really not been too impressive - so unimpressive, that scientists are debating speculating what happened to it.
In fact, when examining the moving 15-year temperature changes over the last two decades, the NASA research indicates (despite the gigantic modern human CO2 emissions) that pre-1950 global temperature changes were greater.
Yes, you read that right. When examining absolute 15-year changes in temperature, our modern warming doesn't quite measure-up to earlier warming.
The adjacent chart plots 15-year (180-month) absolute temperature changes (i.e. differences) of the two decades 1924-1944 (starting July 1924, ending June 1944); and plots the 180-month temperature changes of the two decades from July 1994 to June 2014.
As the chart indicates, both periods have similarities, but the greatest long-term global warming took place prior to 1950. The linear trends on the charts denote the continuing acceleration of 15-year warming (red straight line) for the pre-1950 era, versus the decelerating trend of our current times (green straight line), as reported by NASA scientists.
And, as can be observed, both the long-term warming and cooling extremes were greater during the pre-1950 decades. Confirming the pre-1950 weather/climate extremes is rather easy - just read the headlines from that era.
Additional modern and regional temperature charts.
Note: The above chart is comparing the 2 decades ending June 1944 versus the 2 decades ending June 2014 - both periods exhibit identifiable warming. NASA dataset used for the moving 15-year (180-month) absolute temperature difference comparison and Excel chart. Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
Government bureaucrats and scientists have not exactly gone out of their way to publicize the growing use of estimated temperatures, instead of reality - actual temperature measurements.
For good reason.
Based on an examination by independent analysts, after 1990 the U.S. climate agencies chose to start replacing real-world measurements with entirely fabricated (i.e. "estimated") numbers.
Per the top chart on the left, utilization of estimated temperatures is now approaching 40%.
So, what's the problem with using NOAA's fake temperatures instead of real-world temperature measurements?
The bottom graph on the left explains the problem. The estimated temperatures produce a much greater warming trend then the actual temperature measurements.
By using estimates, government officials are able to claim bogus climate warming statistics in order to advance the scary talking points of catastrophic global warming and extreme climate change.
Deception is as simple as that, yet can be effective propaganda.
As the above paragraph suggests, it's easy to throw out rhetorical bombast in response to over-the-top CAGW doomsday B.S. - especially if the bombast is directed at wealthy elites' galactically-sized hypocrisy and crony-capitalist climate change endeavors.
By now, per the recent polling of Americans (here and here), you'd guess that the GWNs would finally forsake the rhetorical excesses as being a spectacular failed public relations campaign, but apparently not, if the NY Daily News is any indication.
Putting the bombast aside, let's continue with the analysis of those inconvenient global warming and climate change facts.
Recently, 'C3' published a few articles about the actual temperature change experienced across the globe. The key word is 'change.'
When specific temperature 'change' is examined, does it exhibit characteristics deserving of the establishment elites' commonly used fear-mongering qualifiers? Those are qualifiers meant to scare purposefully, such as: accelerating, abrupt, unequivocal, irreversible, rapid, dangerous, indisputable, irrefutable, incontrovertible and etc. Or, as in the case of the wordy wordsmith elites at the NY Daily News, "while the planet burns."
The above chart on the left (Fig. A) is from this 'C3' article, which examines the 6-month absolute temperature changes derived from the state-of-the-art satellite measurement technology. Clearly, the empirical 6-month temperature changes since 1979 do not exhibit characteristics equal to the fear-monger qualifiers, let alone the hysterical, anti-science bullshît of "planet burning."
But wait.....what if the planet really was burning, per the elites' propaganda? What would accelerating, dangerous and unequivocal temperature change look like?
Well, that would be the fabricated 6-month change chart on the right (Fig. B). Using the same time period since 1979, the temperature changes plotted represent the simulated monthly temperature anomalies increasing every single month by just a tiny amount. As a result, the 6-month temperature change curve becomes a fevered-planet exponential.
That's the face of frightening global warming - an exponential precursor to the figurative "burning planet." But the real world intrudes as Fig. A is not that precursor - NOT EVEN CLOSE.
(Tip: If the actual climate temperatures ever produced a similar exponential 6-month, or a 36-month, a 60-month, a 120-month or a 180-month temperature change chart as Fig. B, then it's time for all good skeptics to move their petro-dollar funded haciendas to tropical Antarctica.)
Now, obviously, the two above charts look entirely different. And if the climate is producing accelerating, abrupt, unequivocal, irreversible, rapid, dangerous, indisputable, irrefutable and incontrovertible global warming (i.e. "planet burning") then the 6-month change chart on the right would be reality.
But the chart on the right is not reality - the chart on the left is, which presents a fairly constant up/down of temperature change, essentially negating opposing extremes. That's how the natural climate works in regards to both short-term and long-term temperature changes.
BTW, speaking of lack of extremes...to reinforce what climate reality truly is, depending on your preferred temperature dataset, there has been a non-extreme, slight global cooling trend, from a minimum of 9+ years to 17+ years . This is not some hidden science artifact that only the climate guru-clerics know about. This has been widely discussed in peer-reviewed journals and blogs for the last few years.
Despite the overwhelming empirical evidence, the establishment's elites and mainstream media continue to publish "burning planet" falsehoods. Being completely divorced from the known climate science facts has (thank goodness) seriously undercut their credibility and trustworthiness.
The lack of major hurricanes making direct landfall on the continental U.S. over the last 8+ years is a classic example of extreme climate change not happening as predicted.
Now, add to that the complete disappearance of statistically significant global warming - for the UK's HadCRUT4 there has been no statistically significant warming since October 1996; and for the RSS global atmosphere dataset, it has been since November 1992 - and one then begins to wonder about the incompetence of elite science.
The absence of climate significant warming by itself pretty much confirms that extreme climate change is a non-issue, deserving little priority and resources.
But, there is another view of extreme climate change that can be examined to ascertain whether it has become a modern era problem or not. This can be accomplished by examining simple 10-year absolute change events for global temperatures, both positive and negative.
By identifying the largest 20 warming events and 20 largest cooling events since 1850, the most extreme 2% of temperature swings can be placed in chronological significance. (This identification is best done with the IPCC's gold-standard, the UK's HadCRUT4 monthly dataset, which stretches back to 1850.)
The charts above provide the identification of these extreme, outlier temperature swings. (The May 2014 HC4 dataset contains 1,973 monthly observations from which 1,853 moving 10-year absolute change calculations can be derived.)
As is evident from the empirical data, the vast majority of extreme temperature swings (both warming and cooling) occur prior to 1960. Also, the charts' purple linear trend lines indicate that the extremes are shrinking (getting smaller, if you prefer) over time.
However, with all the above stated, this does not mean that climate change is not happening; that human activities have no influence on weather and climate; nor that global warming won't occur in the near future.
Note: UK's HadCRUT4 2014 satellite dataset used in Excel to calculate 10-year absolute (i.e. arithmetic difference) temperature changes and linear trends for above charts. Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
In a previous post, empirical observations documented the lack of both short-term and long-term warming of the atmosphere.
Another approach to assessing the atmosphere's temperature change is to examine the 10-year changes in the lower troposphere. The graph on the left plots such changes.
Using a satellite dataset that contains 426 monthly temperature measurements, 306 moving 10-year changes can be calculated. This graph plots those 306 data-points (the proverbial 'dots'), plus the cumulative growth in CO2 levels over the same period.
Visually, it is obvious the 10-year temperature changes were dominated by increasing values up till the early 2000's. After that, the 10-year changes decreased consistently, turning from positive to negative. The graph depicts the global atmosphere actually cooling over recent time.
The long increase in 10-year temperature change, and then its subsequent decrease, is confirmed by both the 3-year simple average curve (aqua) and the fitted trend curve (6th order polynomial).
The pale green curve (another fitted trend curve, 6th order) represents the unabated, relentless cumulative growth of atmospheric CO2 levels.
Does the above mean that Earth's atmosphere will never warm again? Nope, it will indeed continue to have phases of warming and cooling just as it did in the past, sans Venus conditions, though.....because that is what climates do, just naturally.
Note: RSS June 2014 satellite dataset used in Excel to calculate 10-year temperature changes. fitted trends and 3-year average in the above chart. Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
The just released BP Statistical Review includes an updated historical record of CO2 emissions across the world, through 2013.
While China's CO2 emissions have almost tripled since the Kyoto Protocol of 1997, the U.S. emissions have decreased about 2%.
That U.S. reduction actually is superior to all the world's major regions and entities, as identified by the BP research report. This U.S. reduction (see adjacent chart) took place even though the U.S. was one of the few countries not to sign the 'Protocol.'
With that said, any CO2 emission reduction by the U.S. is being immediately offset by the huge increases happening in other parts of the world. As a result, neither U.S. citizens, nor the world's, are benefiting from any U.S. CO2 reduction efforts.
To make the U.S. CO2 reduction aspirations even more bleak, if America could slash its emissions by 50% for each of the next 85 years, the net impact on global temperatures by 2100AD, at best, might be all of a measly -0.09°C.
That type of impact would require U.S. emissions to drop by some 3 billion metric tonnes per year, which based on today's technology, would likely amount to at least an annual $1 trillion expense (assumes a ludicrously low $400 per tonne cost to immediately replace all the lost fossil fuel utilization, needed new infrastructure, replacement transportation vehicles and g*d knows what else to survive).
It has been predicted by the climate "experts" that human CO2 emissions would cause the world's atmosphere to warm dangerously, producing catastrophic, world-ending climate disasters.
Some 30+ years later, the advanced satellites circling the globe, 24/7, provide the empirical evidence that the "expert" predictions were of no substance, nor merit.
The adjoining graph is a plot of short-term temperature changes since 1979, along with the cumulative growth of atmospheric CO2 levels. Specifically, the 6-month temperature changes show little, if any, impact from the continuous growth of the atmospheric trace gas, CO2. [Clarification: chart's temperature plot is a moving, full 6-month temperature difference calculated from global RSS monthly anomalies, currently 426 anomalies in dataset]
In fact, the overall trend (aqua line) of 6-month changes is actually negative - an indication that abrupt, accelerating dangerous global warming of the atmosphere is non-existent. [Clarification: Aqua line is a linear trend produced by Excel]
Now, that is the short-term. What about the long-term?
A recent study by a group of pro-catastrophic global warming scientists1 determined that the human CO2 warming influence on atmosphere temperatures would be obvious over 17-years of satellite measurements. These are the scientists who claim we have experienced catastrophic global warming, with world climate disasters being imminent.
And what has happened, over this long-term span specified by these scientists?
Over the last 204 months (that's 17 years through June 2014), the atmosphere temperatures have actually exhibited a global cooling trend, not warming. The per century trend is only a -0.36°C. Despite this small number, it still represents a cooling trend, opposite of consensus predictions.
Whether short or long-term, the state-of-the-art empirical satellite evidence is not only obvious, it is both climate and statistically significant: CO2 emissions have not had a significant influence (warming or cooling) on atmospheric temperatures. For objective science, this means that the CO2-centric anthropogenic global warming hypothesis is essentially invalidated, as it is currently understood.
(1) Study. Scientists involved: Ben D. Santer, C. Mears, C. Doutriaux, P. Caldwell, P. J. Gleckler, Tim M. L. Wigley, Susan Solomon, N. P. Gillett, D. Ivanova, Tom R. Karl, J. R. Lanzante, G. A. Meehl, P. A. Stott, K. E. Taylor, P. W. Thorne, M. F. Wehner, F. J. Wentz
Note: RSS June 2014 satellite dataset used (finally!...updated with RSS June 2014 Excel spreadsheet), including 6-month temperature changes and Excel linear trend in the above chart. Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
As the latest NOAA empirical dataset clearly indicates:
===> The hottest U.S. months took place during the 1930s, a very low CO2 period
===> The huge growth of atmospheric CO2 levels after 1949 did not produce the predicted increase of catastrophic, ever higher temperatures
===> The average maximum record temperature prior to 1950 (the 10 highest months of 1895-1949) was higher than the average maximum record temperature post 1950 (the 10 highest months of 1950-2014)
===> Despite the massive human CO2 emissions, maximum temperatures reveal a cooling trend of highs since 1950
This NOAA factual evidence for the continental U.S. confirms what has previously reported for maximum temperatures across the globe.
Note1: My bad. Found dumb error on original chart. Now corrected. No corrections to above text required.
Regarding claims of "irreversible" and "accelerating" global warming, the scientific empirical evidence (analysis of monthly measurements) comparisons is indisputable: over the last 15+ years, global warming has gone AWOL, which the climate "experts" are mystified about.
Ergo, modern global warming has been in a non-accelerating state, a status reversal taking place since the late 1990's.
Here and here, the scientific evidence from NOAA, when analyzed from a 5-year climate change viewpoint, clearly shows that both modern U.S. and world-wide warming are not "unprecedented" when compared to earlier 20th century periods.
Moving on to a different perspective, the adjacent chart documents that modern atmospheric CO2 levels growth was approximately 6 times greater than during that of the pre-1950 period.
Yet, this immense growth of modern emissions barely produced an uptick in 10-year global warming averages, when compared to a similar time span for the pre-1950s. This is the undeniable result of an analysis of the UK's HadCRUT4 global climate record dataset.
The difference between the two period's 10-year average increase was a trivial +0.1°C - that's well within the range of what natural climate variation could explain. If HadCRUT3 datapoints were used instead, the difference shrinks to +0.05°C.
These differences are meaningless; of no material, meaningful climate consequence; and, totally undeserving of the label "unprecedented."
Additional information regarding the chart:
Note: NOAA global temperature dataset and Excel used to produce above infographic and 10-year averages; or download original data from this site. Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
The gigantic consumer/industrial CO2 emissions during the modern era are claimed by “consensus” climate scientists to have caused rapid, accelerating, unprecedented dangerous warming, never experienced by humans before.
But is this claim really true? Does climate reality support the catastrophic climate change hyperbole?
Nope. But you be the judge.
If CO2 emissions really matter, then their impact should be robustly apparent when analyzing long-term 5-year global climate warming averages. Simply stated, the differential impact from the gargantuan, modern CO2 emissions on global 5-year average warming should be significantly greater than pre-modern, natural warming for 5-year averages.
But that’s not the climate reality. Surprised?
As the adjacent graph of NOAA empirical evidence (5-year averages) reveals, the alarmists’ hyperbolic claims are without any scientific merit. The amount of modern warming (red dots) is nearly identical to the earlier 20th century warming (blue dots) that took place in the absence of large CO2 emissions.
In fact, the 381-month periods plotted in the graph have the earlier period warming to be just slightly higher (+0.01°C) than the modern warming.
To simplify, that’s totally contrary to what the UN’ IPCC and the major US and UK climate agencies have claimed and still widely promulgate.
For those more interested in the details of the chart’s plots, we move to a more complete description below…to the details!
Why was a 381-month (31.75 years) period chosen? Simple. Prior to 1950, the 5-year moving average of global temperatures peaked during October 1944. That peak was reached over a span of 381 months, from the starting trough low point of the 5-year average that occurred during February 1913. Voila, 381 months.
The modern 5-year average peak happened during January 2007. Working backwards to create a similar 381-month span, the start month for the modern period span is May 1975.
In order to produce a visual apple-to-apple comparison of the amount of warming for the two periods, the prior period’s 5-year averages were offset to start at the exactly same point as the modern warming period (‘offsetting’ the datapoints does not affect the slope of the earlier period’s warming trend, nor the amount of warming).
Although it is difficult to discern visually, as stated before, the earlier (pre-1950) 20th century warming actually was higher – a miniscule +0.01 degree higher, but still higher. That’s a freaking amazing outcome since all “experts” claim the modern era global warming was “unprecedented” and “unnatural.”
So what happens when the period span is changed to 300 months (25 years), using the same peak months as before (October 1944 and January 2007)?
It swings in favor of the modern span of warming – by incredibly the same amount of +0.01°C.
And if we used a 35-year comparison instead? OMG, modern warming just went berserk, clocking an unbelievable, higher modern warming of…wait for it…+0.07°C degree. (/sarc off)
And what if the comparison’s NOAA-benchmark was the trough-to-peak warming span of November 1976 to January 2007, a 363-month span (30.25 years)? Compared to a similar 363-month period, working backwards from October 1944, the modern warming was only +0.06°C higher, which is smaller than the error bars of a standard thermometer measurement.
Yep, no matter how one slices and dices the 5-year average warming amounts, the modern era’s warming represents an increase not even one-tenth of a degree greater than the pre-1950 warming – it is not only a statistically worthless difference, it is completely climate insignificant.
What’s the essential point here?
Those stubborn facts: Well, the amount of trough-to-peak modern warming is almost identical to the amount of pre-1950 trough-to-peak warming, which is clear indication that the modern warming was likely due to the same natural influences, regardless of the amount of human CO2 emissions.
Certainly, one can’t conclude that CO2 does not have some role during warming periods, but NOAA’s empirical science research indicates it is ‘best practice’ science to conclude that the vast majority of modern warming was a result of non-human reasons.
As wise old people would say: “it’s the same old, same old.”
Additional climate change charts.
Note: NOAA global temperature dataset and Excel used to produce graphs and 5-year averages; or download original data from this site. Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
Does the new Obama climate plan have any significant impact on global warming?
===> No...based on the known climate facts, if Obama's EPA plan was enacted immediately today, by 2030 (16 years from now) it would, at best, eliminate 555 million tonnes of CO2 emissions per year for a total reduction of 8.8 giga-tonnes...the global temperature impact would be zero, as seen to the left.
Will the Democrats' climate plan raise energy prices for Americans, thus increasing the growing income inequality gap?
===> Yes...even the EPA estimates energy prices will increase by 6.5% due to this plan, while real-world experts estimate consumer wallet pain will increase by some $17 billion per year.
Will this zero-impact global warming initiative harm economic growth and increase the ranks of unemployed?
===> Yes...Obama's past economic policies have destroyed the middle-class job market...this proposed climate plan will now potentially eliminate another 224,000 jobs per year...this result is due to the EPA's desire to reduce coal CO2 emissions by 30% by 2030, which means that 19% of all electricity-producing capacity based on coal will have to be removed...and that represents a $50 billion negative impact on the U.S. economy, plus a huge number of jobs devastated.
Does the EPA climate plan actually stop the burning of coal worldwide and reduce total coal CO2 emissions?
===> Absolutely No...countries such as China and India will continue to build the already planned, new 1,200 coal-generation plants at a record pace, and BTW, at the same time U.S. coal producers will now export that low cost coal that Obama regulators have essentially banned in the U.S., plus the EU is proposing to finance future coal generation capacity.
Will U.S. reduction of coal CO2 emissions impact global "climate change" and severe weather events?
Note: The above 'C3' simple calculator is based on the empirical climate records published by both the prime UK and US climate research agencies. By using their estimates of human CO2 emissions and global temperature changes since 1850, it can be estimated, by simple arithmetic, how much each metric tonne of CO2 emissions changes global temperatures. This historical, long-term relationship can be used to provide rule-of-thumb estimates of future impacts.
The political agenda of "global warming" is so important to government-sponsored scientists that massive fabrication of temperature warming is required to convince policymakers and the media.
The latest analysis (see graph) reveals the extent to which this temperature fabrication goes.
Although the actual climate records' empirical evidence shows essentially a flat temperature trend for the U.S. since 1985, NOAA has added warming "adjustments" to the historical empirical database to create a false warming trend of 1.5°F per century.
As this analysis indicates, consensus corruption of empirical science by U.S. scientists is active and robust, done with a seemingly obvious intent to deceive.
Recent quotes regarding Obama's severe weather and climate change claims:
"Obama is on record saying that climate change “once considered an issue for the distant future, has moved firmly into the present” and is “affecting Americans right now.”...Obama’s claim that “climate-related changes are outside of recent experience” and “have become more frequent and/or intense” is a lie from start to finish."
"Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry: ‘I am mystified as to why Obama and John Kerry are making such strong (and indefensible) statements about climate change’"
As for Obama's extreme climate change science and severe weather ignorance, he might improve his credibility if he learned how to use Google, as a due diligence practice prior to a speech, just to keep from appearing like a total idiot, no?
Additional news articles regarding past severe weather disasters and failed "expert" predictions.
Since 1982, have human CO2 emissions increased?
Since 1982, has extreme global drought increased?
No, absolutely not, per newest scientific research.
Have all IPCC climate models and climate "expert" predictions about CO2-doomsday and catastrophic global drought conditions failed?
Yes. Miserably and spectacularly failed, which is now the expected norm.
Have politicians, bureaucrats and mainstream media purposefully mislead the American public about extreme droughts over the last three decades?
The world is at a period of worrisome and growing critical issues, including: the Ukraine disaster; China aggression; Russian aggression, Iran's nuclear threats; Syria's self-genocide; Libya's disintegration; Egypt's continuing theocracy implosion; Nigeria and sub-Sahara's slow take-over by Al Qaeda and China; the EU's continuing decline; America's economic stagnation of more big government rules and bureaucracy; and, so on and so on.
To be sure, a long list of very serious concerns to be addressed and solved, which excludes any of this administration's current bubbling scandals, with the latest being the disgraceful VA healthcare incompetence exhibited by big government.
Yet, this White House and its administration choose to focus primary attention and its agenda on a low priority concern that is not humanly possible to stop, control or manage - that would be the farcical 'climate change' doomsday agenda.
Figuratively, Washington D.C. has become the 'town of clowns' where the climate-circus never leaves, causing loss of real purpose, influence and credibility with most Americans and the rest of the world.
Recent articles documenting this beclowning of America's ruling elite are wide and varied. A few from this week:
America's serious foreign and domestic wounds will continue to grow and fester until the D.C. climate circus tent is folded and its principal clowns are slapped hard into reality.
Most climate science researchers, from alarmists to skeptics, agree that the world has warmed since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA). This global LIA-rebound warming trend has also affected the U.S. continental climate.
Many experts believe that this built-in warming trend from the Little Ice Age continues, just as the post-glacial rebound due to the melting of ice sheets continues even to this day, thousands of years after the ice sheets completely disappeared.
Although there are currently no means for scientists to determine if modern warming (since 1950) is actually more a result of the continuing LIA-rebound, or of natural climate fluctuations, or due to solar/cosmic gyrations or a result of a wide variety of human influences, one can still compare the earlier warming period amount, pre-1950, to that of the modern warming. In fact, U.S. continental temperature records go back to 1895, which provides interesting evidence about U.S. climate warming.
To accomplish this comparative analysis, NOAA’s monthly temperature dataset will be utilized to construct 5-year temperature averages (60-month moving averages).
We know from NOAA’s climate records that the earlier U.S. warming topped out in December 1935 – specifically, that’s when the 5-year average temperature hit its peak. The records for 5-year averages only go back to December 1899, thus the LIA-rebound warming dataset spans 422 months for this comparison.
Likewise, the NOAA dataset finds that the modern peak of 5-year average temperatures to have taken place during January 2002. By going all the way back to November 1967, a second 422-month temperature record is produced that happens to encompass the modern era’s large influx of consumer/industrial CO2 emissions (i.e., greenhouse gas).
So, we have two NOAA 5-year average temperature datasets, each spanning 422 months, with one including the temperature peak prior to the huge, modern CO2 emissions; the other being a period that represents the modern warming that has been so feared, which peaked in 2002.
How do these two periods compare, in terms of actual warming?
Well, to make the comparison an apple-to-apple comparison that is easier to visually discern, the two 5-year temperature datasets have been made to start at the exact same temperature anomaly.
Now examine the above temperature plots on the left (click on left chart to enlarge). Do you see the obvious conclusion?
After 422-months, the total modern warming greater than the pre-1950 warming period amounts to a miniscule fraction of a degree – about twelve one-hundredths of a degree (F).
Those Stubborn Climate Facts: after 35+ years, this tiny difference between the two periods is entirely within the range of natural climate variation that one could expect.
Yes, the temperature plots on the left reveal both differences and similarities in the overall warming pattern, but in the end, they almost finish in a dead heat (pun intended) regarding the amount of warming over 422 months.
Surprised? (Well, if you watch and read the mainstream press it’s likely you are very surprised.)
This actual NOAA empirical evidence is why the vast majority of climate scientists do not agree with the supposition that humans have caused all the modern warming. Clearly, most experts recognize that a very significant percentage of warming for the modern era is likely no different than the earlier period’s.
Moving onto the next comparison, how do the representative temperature changes compare after these two peaks took place? The plots on the right reveal that information.
From January 2003 to April 2014 represents 136 months, after the peak in 2002. In a similar fashion, the 136-month period after the 1935 peak ends in May 1946. The chart on the right (click to enlarge) are for both these periods, and again, these two datasets are adjusted to begin at the same temperature anomaly in order to ease visual comparison.
How do these two ‘post-peak’ periods compare?
Simply put, both the pre-1950 and modern ‘post-peak’ period exhibit a sustained cooling trend, based on the 5-year average temperatures.
The cooling patterns exhibited by both are similar in their yo-yo, up and down movements, with variation though. And the cooling amount outcomes for both trends are within three-tenths of a degree (as recently as the 110-month mark - February 2012/March 1944 - the two periods essentially match).
When the temperature patterns are examined in this manner, NOAA’s objective empirical evidence indicates that both the modern U.S. warming and cooling trends are not much different than those that took place prior to the modern immense CO2 emissions released. Based on that recognition, the empirical climate science would suggest:
- The long-term warming since at least the 1800’s is a result of the rebound in temperatures from the LIA, which is still playing out in fits and starts;
- Similar patterns of up/down variation exhibited by all four periods (warming, cooling, warming, cooling) are likely the direct result of primary climate oscillation/cyclical determinants;
- CO2 emissions (and other trace greenhouse gases) are not a strong factor driving the observed climate variation, nor the warming phases, nor the cooling spans; and,
- Regardless of reason (i.e. climate attribution), recent global warming has not produced a “dangerous” 5-year warming span that is significantly different than past periods “dangerous” warming in the U.S.
The fact of Earth’s current extended “global warming” pause is a strong indication that points 1 and 2 above hold sway as the driving forces, not #3.
Finally, the NOAA climate records are not kind to the CAGW claims, which has had predictable results by its proponents as they lose the scientific debate. As a result, climate-doomsday scientists are now resorting to some very ugly, anti-scientific tactics.
This past week of alarmism tactics just witnessed a new round of climate science ugliness (read here and here) that harkens back to the totalitarian/authoritarian regime tactics under Hitler, Stalin and Mao. Both articles list names of the usual GWN suspects who perpetuate this ugly form of climate "science."
Note: NOAA U.S. temperature dataset and Excel used to produce graphs and 5-year averages; or download original data from this site. Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too!. Go here to learn how.
Recently, the White House released their U.S. climate assessment report that was shockingly deceptive - contrary to NOAA's own empirical climate evidence that is widely available.
Many of the mainstream press outlets, acting as this administration's propaganda instruments, reported the deceptions as is, even sometimes enhanced with their own climate-doomsday embellishments.
The major deception of the climate report is the falsehood that accelerating U.S. and global warming is taking place due to human CO2 emissions.
It is important to note that the science journals, and even some mainstream media outlets, are actually reporting the facts that the globe's predicted, unequivocal warming has stalled for over 15+ years.
This is also true for the continental U.S. temperatures during the 21st century, though, with an obvious difference. As the adjacent chart reveals, the U.S. temperatures exhibit an actual cooling trend - actually opposite of the rapid, dangerous, "scorching" climate that the White House and some propagandists liars journalists report.
Based on moving 5-year averages of U.S. monthly temperature anomalies, America's continental climate is currently cooling at a minus 1.2°F per century rate.
It's just another case of 'those stubborn facts' being mighty inconvenient.
Note: Excel used to produce chart, averages and linear trend. NOAA temperature dataset used can be downloaded from this site.
(click on images to enlarge)
Al Gore is at it again, demonizing Republicans and the GOP for their resistance to accepting Al's global warming "science."
However, as the NOAA/NCDC chart depicts on the left, for the 6-month periods ending April, Al's mythical "undeniable" global warming trend has been literally non-existent. Instead, despite the huge CO2 emissions, the U.S. has been experiencing a 20-year cooling trend of -1.5°F per century.
Yes, that's 20 years of climate reality that exposes the ludicrous climate doomsday predictions that Gore has been spouting for 20 years. (For additional temperature/climate charts, go here.)
Of course, the American public and critics have not been very receptive to the "elites" global warming doomsday-cult, so Gore and his alarmist disciples turn to McCarthy-style tactics to demonize opponents. For more information on the recent use of those ugly tactics, read here, here and here.
Note: Again, the above chart is for 6-month periods ending April. A plot of all 216 months (18 years) ending April 2014 reveals a slight cooling trend for the U.S.; both the 19 and 20 year periods show the U.S. with a slight warming trend but well below the Gorian prediction of disatrous warming levels.