Read here. For some European citizens, the cost of global warming impact might reach a maximum of $330 per year; for others, it may be as low as $66 per year per person. This is the measly, almost negligible cost if existing human CO2 emission growth is not curtailed. This is infinitesimally smaller than a blip on the proverbial radar screen of potential future catastrophes. (An asteroid/meteor striking Earth over the next 70 years anyone?)
The Ciscar et al. peer-reviewed study examined aggressive, worst-case IPCC impact scenarios if CO2 emissions continued unabated, thus causing the hypothetical "positive feedback" warming. This meager EU per capita cost of speculative climate change is in stark contrast to the multiple trillions that Europeans would have to spend to achieve the highly unlikely utopia of a low/zero CO2 emitting, industrial/consumer society.
"A new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) finds that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union (EU) would range between 0.2–1%. Furthermore, this minuscule change was derived using aggressive IPCC scenarios for temperature and sea-level rise. Regardless of the claims made by climate change doomsayers, the future is not going to suck after all.....This article [study] quantifies the potential consequences of climate change in Europe in four market impact categories (agriculture, river floods, coastal areas, and tourism) and one nonmarket impact (human health). The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modeling framework.....To put that into perspective, the average yearly income of an EU resident is around €24,000 ($33,000).....This means that the impact on individuals would range from €48 to €240 ($66–330) a year.....Bias not withstanding, in the end the impact turns out to be negligible, costing the average citizen no more than a dinner for two in a nice restaurant or an overnight stay in an upscale hotel. This study sends a message, and that message is simple: global warming, if it takes place at all, will hardly be noticed. [Juan-Carlos Ciscar, Ana Iglesias, Luc Feyen, László Szabó, Denise Van Regemorter, Bas Amelung, Robert Nicholls, Paul Watkiss, Ole B. Christensen, Rutger Dankers, Luis Garrote, Clare M. Goodess, Alistair Hunt, Alvaro Moreno, Julie Richards, and Antonio Soria 2011: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences]
Additional peer-reviewed postings.
