Ben 'call-me-violent' Santer is a Climategate-style scientist whose ethical compass normally does not read true very well. Despite these less than desired personal characteristics as a scientist, Ben pursues climate science with great vigor, producing results that are very interesting, to say the least. His most recent research is a perfect example.
Benjie et al. has determined, through an unprecedented and a most robust, vigorous research effort, that one only needs 17 years to determine the human-CO2 impact on global temperatures.
Using this new Santer 17-year rule, the below atmospheric temperatures, per the NASA satellite, have increased modestly, suggesting a non-catastrophic increase of only 1.27 degrees by January 1, 2100.
And, using this new 17-year rule, the actual ocean temperatures have barely increased in the recent past. If this linear ocean temperature trend continued, a 0.74 degrees of less than robust warming can be expected by January 1, 2100.
And, using this new 17-year rule, the global temperatures have slightly increased since July 2004. Expanding on this global data, the underlying linear trend points to an insignificant, minor 0.85 degree increase in global temperatures by January 1, 2100 - certainly not the runaway, catastrophic global warming as predicted by the IPCC, and the likes of Santer.
These 3 charts provide some very valuable insights: one, recent past warming is realistically a non-issue; two, the future warming, based on known trends, is also likely to be a non-issue; and, three, increasing CO2 levels have little impact on global temperatures.
Regarding the last point, the 17-year r^2 statistical measurement for each of the above graphs indicates the extreme lameness of the CO2 and warming relationship. Using an Excel formula, the r^2 for CO2 and satellite temperatures is just 0.136; for CO2 and ocean temperatures it is 0.135; and, for global CO2 and global temperatures it is only 0.133.
These ludicrously low r^2 statistical measurements reveal an indisputable truth: CO2 levels probably have only little influence on global temperatures.
And, to add even more misery to global warming alarmists, such as Santer et al., the light blue Excel fitted (polynomial) curve for each chart suggests that temperature increases are definitely decelerating over the most recent 17-year span, in spite of the growing CO2 levels. In terms of visual interpretation, each chart does appear to point to a possible cooling phase in the near future.
Previous postings on modern global warming. Additional modern and historical temperature charts.
