An empirical analysis of the latest CRUTEM4 dataset reveals that climate modeling, as used by the IPCC and other climate research agencies, have predictive capabilities measured as being worthless
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Read here. Bob Tisdale examines the new CRUTEM4 dataset (part of the new HadCRUT4 dataset) versus the predictions of the IPCC's climate modeling "science." As previous analyses have established, the major climate research climate models are incapable of providing accurate (or even adequate) predictions of future climate conditions.
Why is climate modeling worthless as a prediction tool?
There are multiple reasons, but in a nutshell:
1. Climate modelers, not being evidence-based scientists, constructed models per the IPCC politicized CO2-based agenda
2. Climate modelers, per the above #1 reason, constructed models to minimize the influence of natural climate oscillations and cycles
3. Climate modelers constantly tweak their models with numerous "adjustments" to force models to match observed temperature behavior over more recent decades
4. When, climate modelers perform their "tweaks" for modern era temperatures, the climate models are no longer able to accurately predict ('hindcast') past temperature behavior
5. If climate models were "adjusted" to perform better past temperature hindcasting, then the climate models would fail to match recent temperature behavior (it's the nature of the climate modle beast).
As the adjacent charts from Bob Tisdale's analysis shows, the state-of-the-art IPCC climate model predictions (red curves/lines) fail completely to match the observed historical dataset (blue curves/lines).
"...compares the models to the global CRUTEM4 data during the early warming period of 1917 to 1938. The observed rate at which global land surface temperatures warmed is almost 5 times faster than simulated by the IPCC’s climate models. 5 times faster....According to the CMIP3 multi-model mean, land surface temperatures should have warmed at a rate of 0.043 deg C per decade from 1938 to 1976, but according to the CRUTEM4 data, global land surface temperature anomalies cooled at a rate of -0.05 deg C per decade..."
Conclusion: After billions of dollars expended on climate modeling (and the ungodly huge amount of wasted science man-hours), the latest evidence sadly confirms that IPCC climate models' predictions remain worthless.
To get an idea of the immense expenditures of money and time spent on climate modelers play toys, watch this NASA video:
Previous climate-model and failed-prediction postings. Modern global, regional and historical temperature charts.
