Climate modeling failure is unequivocal and ubiquitous for a multitude of reasons - a new study adds yet another reason as researchers determine the IPCC models incorrectly assume a historical polar amplification that did not happen
(image source - click to enlarge)
Read here. Climate models are notoriously bad at predicting future climate conditions, which a preponderance of empirical evidence substantiates. This magnitude of failure is likely to be partially due to faulty assumptions about the past climate.
One key assumption of the climate models is that the northern polar regions, in the past, experienced an amplification of warming versus that of the mid-northern latitudes and thus would do the same in the future.
The adjacent chart shows such amplification for the Antarctica some 130 thousand years ago during the Eemian period. But did the same amplified warming happen during the Eemian period for the sub-Arctic and Arctic regions?
New research out of the EU (Bauch et al.) finds that the supposed amplified warming of high northern latitudes did not happen as the climate modelers have assumed.
"In a new study, Bauch et al. compare reconstructed temperatures and water masses from two sediment cores that record the flow of meltwater in the subpolar and polar North Atlantic over the past 135,000 years. They do not find evidence of extreme warmth in the sub-Arctic during the Eemian interglacial period...In fact, the Arctic may have been colder during the Eemian...the authors suggest that previous records may reflect other phenomena and caution against the use of the Eemian as an analog of the present...also challenges climate models that predict extreme warmth and ice-free conditions in the Arctic in response to greenhouse gas warming in the 21st century."..."Variations in the poleward-directed Atlantic heat transfer was investigated over the past 135 ka with special emphasis on the last and present interglacial climate development (Eemian and Holocene)...Moreover, inferred temperatures for the Nordic Seas were generally colder in the Eemian than in the Holocene, and vice versa for the North Atlantic. A reduced intensity of Atlantic Ocean heat transfer to the Arctic therefore characterized the Eemian, requiring a reassessment of the actual role of the ocean–atmosphere system behind interglacial, but also, glacial climate changes." [Henning A. Bauch, Evguenia S. Kandiano, Jan P. Helmke 2012: Geophysical Research Letters]
Conclusions: Climate modeling failure is the rule rather than the exception. There are any number of significant reasons that IPCC models models are unable to successfully interpret the complexities of the real-world climate, leading to the plethora of inaccurate climate predictions. This newest research highlights the fact that climate model assumptions may be wrong. In this specific case, the climate models assumed a northern polar amplification of warming in the past that does not appear to have actually happened.
Previous climate-history and peer-reviewed postings. Historical temperature charts.
