C3

IPCC Finally Admits Total Failure: Climate Models Can't Predict Squat, Especially Global Warming

The forthcoming 2013 IPCC report, which was leaked recently, reveals that the IPCC green-sharia scientists continue pushing the failed hypothesis that human CO2 emissions are responsible for modern global warming - this draft 'AR5' report documents however that there has been zero global warming since the turn of the century.....ergo, the IPCC climate models have been total failures

(click images to enlarge)

On the left is the plot of monthly global atmospheric temperature anomalies, from January 1979 through November 2012 (since satellite measurements began). Putting aside the obvious - the constant variation of monthly temperatures - the red curve (5-year average) depicts the very clear absence of longer-term "global warming" since the end of 1999.

Indeed, as plotted, the huge increase of human CO2 emissions since 1999 has had zero warming impact, per the irrefutable satellite technology.

The new IPCC chart on the right plots global temperatures versus the various renditions of the IPCC's climate models over the years. The chart's orange area is the predicted temperature range from the 2007 IPCC report. The blue curve (superimposed on chart) is the 5-year average of the global HadCRUT4 anomalies.

Conclusions:

• Modern atmospheric global warming from CO2 has disappeared during the 21st century.
• Modern surface global warming, from a CO2 "warmed" atmosphere, has disappeared.
• Large levels of human CO2 emissions have had little impact on 21st century temperatures.
• All of the above 3 factual points contradict the IPCC "expert" predictions, which this newest IPCC report reveals.
• The IPCC climate models based on the CO2 hypothesis are worthless - they can't predict squat, essentially.
• The IPCC claims that the "physics is solid" of CO2-based global warming might be true in the laboratory but not in the chaotic, real world climate.
  
• The IPCC and its green-sharia scientists continue to fail the public by ignoring the large natural planet/solar/cosmic phenomenons that ultimately drive Earth's continuous climate change.
• In the future, the world will warm/cool (take your pick) and the IPCC has no idea which will happen, by how much and when either will begin/end.

Sources of plot data. Additional temperature and climate charts.

Chinese Scientists Unequivocally Establish That Medieval Warming Was Unprecedented

The IPCC-favored fabricators of the widely discredited and statistically lame 'Hockey Stick' purposefully claimed that the Medieval Warming was strictly a European phenomenon and its temperatures were below the modern warming - in contrast, yet another study, this one based on research out of China, confirms that the Medieval Warming was unequivocal and unprecedented

(click on map to enlarge - map source)

Read here. Literally, hundreds of paleo-climate studies provide the empirical evidence that the Medieval Warming Period (MWP) was a global phenomenon and highly likely the warmest extended period over the last 1,000 years. In fact, the empirical evidence that the MWP was a robust climate change event sans human CO2 emissions is overwhelming.

The latest study establishing the same comes from a Chinese-led team of paleo-climate scientists:

"...the authors write that "lakes are excellent sensors of environmental change," and that "lake sediments can provide well-resolved records of change on different time scales," while noting that "crater and maar lakes are especially sensitive to climate change because typically they have a small catchment area and limited inflow/outflow."...such lakes "often provide high-resolution records due to limnological processes favorable to the development and preservation of seasonally laminated sediments,"...they add that "diatoms are excellent indicators of environmental conditions and have been widely used to reconstruct Holocene climate variability,"...Focusing on Lake Erlongwan, one of eight maar lakes in the Long Gang Volcanic Field of Jilin Province, NE China...The ten researchers report that "three intervals were identified by their diatom assemblages and correspond within dating uncertainties to the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and the 20th century warming trend." During the MWP, they further indicate that "the duration of the summer was longer while the spring and autumn were shorter than the 20th century." And they unequivocally declare that "the period between ca. AD 1150 and 1200 was the warmest interval of the past 1000 years."" [Luo Wang, Patrick Rioual, Virginia N. Panizzo, Houyuan Lu, Zhaoyan Gu, Guoqiang Chu, Deguang Yang, Jingtai Han, Jiaqi Liu, Anson W. Mackay 2012: Quaternary Research]

FYI: Common Global Temperature & Climate Information Datasets Used For Graphs

Below are links to a variety of temperature/climate data widely used by bloggers, including 'C3' for its charts. Decided to compile this list in a single post (and a permanent 'C3' page that will be updated) after wasting way too much time trying to find an obscure HadCRUT dataset that was buried on one of the UK MetOffice web pages. We hope this will save others the time and frustration of searching for a particular dataset.

Data/Info.....NOAA CO2 Levels – Mth.

Data/Info.....NOAA CO2 Levels – Annl.

Data/Info.....D.O.E. Pre-1958 CO2 Levels – Annl.

 

Data/Info.....UAH Satellite Temperatures

Data/Info.....RSS Satellite Temperatures

 

Data/Info.....Met Office/Hadley Dataset Info

Data/Info.....Met Office/Hadley FAQ

Data/Info.....Met Office/Hadley H.C.4 Info

Data/Info.....HadCRUT4 Global Land/Sea-Mth.

Data/Info.....HadCRUT4 N. Hemi. Land/Sea-Mth.

Data/Info.....HadCRUT4 S. Hemi. Land/Sea-Mth.

Data/Info.....HadCRUT4 Tropics Land/Sea-Mth.

Data/Info.....HadCRUT4 Global Land/Sea-Annl.

Data/Info.....HadCRUT4 N. Hemi. Land/Sea-Annl.

Data/Info.....HadCRUT4 S. Hemi. Land/Sea-Annl.

Data/Info.....HadCRUT4 Tropics Land/Sea-Annl.

 

Data/Info.....HadCRUT3 Diagnostics

Data/Info.....HadCRUT3 Global Land/Sea-Mth.

Data/Info.....HadCRUT3 N. Hemi. Land/Sea-Mth.

Data/Info.....HadCRUT3 S. Hemi. Land/Sea-Mth.

Data/Info.....HadCRUT3 Tropics Land/Sea-Mth.

Data/Info.....HadCRUT3 NrthExTropics Land/Sea-Mth.

Data/Info.....HadCRUT3 SthrnExTropics Land/Sea-Mth.

Data/Info.....HadCRUT3 Tropics & MidLat. Land/Sea-Mth.

Data/Info.....HadCRUT3 Global Land/Sea-Annl.

Data/Info.....HadCRUT3 N. Hemi. Land/Sea-Annl.

Data/Info.....HadCRUT3 S. Hemi. Land/Sea-Annl.

Data/Info.....HadCRUT3 Tropics Land/Sea-Annl.

Data/Info.....HadCRUT3 NrthExTropics Land/Sea-Annl.

Data/Info.....HadCRUT3 SthrnExTropics Land/Sea-Annl.

Data/Info.....HadCRUT3 Tropics & MidLat. Land/Sea-Annl.

 

Data/Info.....HadCET (Central England Temps - Land)

Data/Info.....HadCET Monthly (Starting Jan. 1659 AD)

Data/Info.....HadCET Annual (Starting 1659 AD)

 

Data/Info.....HadSST3 Info (Sea Surface)

Data/Info.....HadSST3 Downloads

Data/Info.....HadSST3 Global-Mth.

Data/Info.....HadSST3 N.Hemi.-Mth.

Data/Info.....HadSST3 S.Hemi.-Mth.

Data/Info.....HadSST3 Tropics-Mth.

Data/Info.....HadSST3 Global-Annl.

Data/Info.....HadSST3 N.Hemi.-Annl.

Data/Info.....HadSST3 S.Hemi.-Annl.

Data/Info.....HadSST3 Tropics-Annl.

 

Data/Info.....HadSST2 Info (Sea Surface)

Data/Info.....HadSST2 Diagnostics

Data/Info.....HadSST2 Global-Mth.

Data/Info.....HadSST2 N.Hemi.-Mth.

Data/Info.....HadSST2 S.Hemi.-Mth.

 

Data/Info.....CRUTEM3 Info (Land Surface)

Data/Info.....CRUTEM3 Downloads

Data/Info.....CRUTEM3 Global-Mth.

Data/Info.....CRUTEM3 N. Hemi.-Mth.

Data/Info.....CRUTEM3 S. Hemi.-Mth.

Data/Info.....CRUTEM3 Tropics-Mth.

Data/Info.....CRUTEM3 NrthExTropics-Mth.

Data/Info.....CRUTEM3 SthrnExTropics-Mth.

Data/Info.....CRUTEM3 Tropics & MidLat.-Mth.

Data/Info.....CRUTEM3 Global-Annl.

Data/Info.....CRUTEM3 N. Hemi.-Annl.

Data/Info.....CRUTEM3 S. Hemi.-Annl.

Data/Info.....CRUTEM3 Tropics-Annl.

Data/Info.....CRUTEM3 NrthExTropics-Annl.

Data/Info.....CRUTEM3 SthrnExTropics-Annl.

Data/Info.....CRUTEM3 Tropics & MidLat.-Annl.

 

Data/Info.....CRUTEM4 Info (Land Surface)

Data/Info.....CRUTEM4 Downloads

Data/Info.....CRUTEM3 Global-Mth.

Data/Info.....CRUTEM3 N. Hemi.-Mth.

Data/Info.....CRUTEM3 S. Hemi.-Mth.

Data/Info.....CRUTEM3 Global-Annl.

Data/Info.....CRUTEM3 N. Hemi.-Annl.

Data/Info.....CRUTEM3 S. Hemi.-Annl.

 

Data/Info.....NOAA Reynolds Olv2 SST

 

Data/Info.....NCDC (NOAA) Temp. Anomaly Info

Data/Info.....NCDC (NOAA) Global Land/Sea-Mth.

Data/Info.....NCDC (NOAA) N. Hemi. Land/Sea-Mth.

Data/Info.....NCDC (NOAA) S. Hemi. Land/Sea-Mth.

Data/Info.....NCDC (NOAA) Global Land/Sea-Annl.

 

Data/Info.....NCDC (NOAA) Global Sea-Mth. (Sea Surface)

Data/Info.....NCDC (NOAA) N. Hemi. Sea-Mth.

Data/Info.....NCDC (NOAA) S. Hemi. Sea-Mth.

Data/Info.....NCDC (NOAA) Global Sea-Annl.

 

Data/Info.....NCDC (NOAA) Global Land-Mth. (Land Surface)

Data/Info.....NCDC (NOAA) N. Hemi. Land-Mth.

Data/Info.....NCDC (NOAA) S. Hemi. Land-Mth.

Data/Info.....NCDC (NOAA) Global Land-Annl.

 

Data/Info.....GISS (NASA) Info

Data/Info.....GISS (NASA) Global Land/Sea

Data/Info.....GISS (NASA) N. Hemisphere Land/Sea

Data/Info.....GISS (NASA) S. Hemisphere Land/Sea

 

Note for newbies: Some links go to a web page with the data. Other links automatically download the dataset file when the link is clicked. For the HadCrut, HadSST, HadCET and CRUT files, add a ".dat" after the filename when downloading - that will allow the file to be opened in Excel. For most of the datasets, the first column is date information (often the 2nd column also) and the very next column after the date information is the temperature anomaly.

From Multiple Proxies, European Researchers Determine Modern Global Warming Is Less Than Medieval Period

Actually, the European researchers confirmed that the "unprecedented" modern global warming is not only less than the Medieval Period, it is less than most of the prior warming phases over the last 10,000 years - using multiple proxies, this study shreds the 'Hockey Stick' hypothesis of Penn State's 'winner of the Nobel Prize pretender'

(click image to enlarge)

Read here. Michael Mann's widely discredited 'Hockey Stick' hypothesis takes huge hit from objective, reputable scientists.

As the chart depicts, over the last 10,000 years multiple periods had warmer temperatures than our current modern temperatures. Clearly, today's temperatures are not "unprecedented."

"In the words of the authors, "we reconstructed temperature series of both Northern and Southern Norway based on numerous studies in Scandinavia examining pollen and plant macrofossils in lake sediment cores, chironomids in sediment cores, tree line changes, and deposition rate of speleothems."...it can be seen that after the planet finally emerged from the last great period of glaciation, the coldest interval of the current interglacial occurred during the depths of the Little Ice Age, which prevailed just prior to the warming that ushered the planet into its current period of warmth, which is still far less than that of much of the prior part of the record. And as a result of this fact, there would appear to be nothing unusual about the earth warming a good deal more than it already has sometime in the near future, without any need to invoke anthropogenic CO2 emissions as an explanation for the warming." [Karianne S. Lilleøren, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas V. Schuler, Kjersti Gisnås, Ole Humlum 2012: Global and Planetary Change]

Additional climate-history and peer-reviewed postings. Historical temperature charts.

Severe 2012 U.S. Drought Not Caused By Human CO2, Confirms NOAA

Green-sharia scientists, politicians and celebrities pushing an anti-growth political agenda continue to fail miserably at convincing the public that human CO2 causes severe weather events and extreme climate change - a classic example is the 2012 U.S. drought, which NOAA data confirm, is unrelated to CO2 levels despite the hysterical claims of the greens

(click on image to enlarge)

The adjacent chart represents a plot of the percent U.S. area that exhibits drought conditions per the Palmer Drought Index. These empirical measurements, from 1895 to the present, are reported by NOAA. In addition, the chart displays a plot of monthly CO2 levels during the same time range.

A few very rational and objective conclusions one can draw from the chart:

• Severe droughts have occurred well before 1960 and the large influx of human CO2 emissions.
• The droughts of the 1930's and 1950's were worse than the 2011/12 drought.
• The 30-year drought average (red curve) indicates little in the way of extreme climate change - in fact, current drought conditions are well within the bounds of natural climatic variation over the last 100+ years.
  
• U.S. severe droughts appear to follow some natural rhythm or cycle.
• CO2 levels are not the cause of severe droughts.

Additional severe-weather postings. Additional temperature and climate charts. A listing of severe weather events.

Peer Reviewed Study: Severe Weather Events On Decline Say Experts - Extreme Climate Change Not Evident

Predictions by IPCC "experts" claimed that extreme climate change, due to global warming, would produce an increasing level of catastrophic severe weather events - the actual empirical evidence proves that the predictions have no scientific basis

(click on image to enlarge - image source)

Read here. The accelerating global temperatures and increasing incidence and severity of tropical hurricanes and cyclones were supposed to be the clear-cut evidence that human CO2 emissions were wreaking havoc on Earth's climate. But a funny thing happened on the way to the climate apocalypse predicted by the IPCC, NOAA and NASA...nothing.

As this single chart reveals, global warming is not accelerating, nor is it "irrefutable" - in fact, it clearly shows the disappearance of global warming, despite the huge CO2 emissions since 1970. Additionally, the cyclone/hurricane incidents since 1970 have not increased as predicted, nor has the severity of cyclone/hurricanes increased.

"Anyone who'd like to argue that the world is experiencing a "new normal" with respect to tropical cyclones is simply mistaken. Over the past 4 years, the world is actually in the midst of a very low period in tropical cyclone landfalls -- at least as measured over the past 43 years.....There is even evidence in our paper (see our Figure 2) that the period before 1970 saw more intense hurricane landfalls than the period since."

'C3' Conclusions: Human CO2 emissions are not causing rapid, accelerating, irrefutable global warming. Human CO2 emissions are not causing extreme climate change or causing an increase in severe weather events. Per the peer reviewed studies and empirical evidence, actual incidence of severe tropical cyclones and hurricanes has not increased since the introduction of huge CO2 emissions from the modern consumer and industrial age.

Additional severe-weather and peer-reviewed postings. Additional temperature and climate charts. A listing of severe weather events.