Climate science continues to document the powerful, repeating natural patterns that produce the ups/downs of climate change...yet, many political, journalism, celebrity elites, and newly-minted wannabes deny the existence of these past, current and future climate patterns...to the point of grossly misleading the public and constituents in regards to natural climate change, natural global warming, and yes, natural worldwide cooling...so, is it plain anti-science that drives their denial?...an unfathomable ignorance?...or just the intellectually-lame desire to be politically correct?.....
Using the UK's MetOffice global HadCRUT4 (HC4) dataset as a proxy for long-term climate change, it allows for a breakdown of when such changes occurred.
For this article's definitional purposes, long-term change is defined at those points where the HC4 30-year global average shifted to a new level (up or down) by 0.1°C, for at least 12-months in a row.
[Editor: Why ±0.1 changes and not ±0.01? Because long-term changes of hundredths of a degree is an absurd and statistically bogus change-assessment technique for 12 months, let alone 360 months.]
The adjacent chart depicts those ±0.1 changes. As can be observed, there have been a total of 10 shifts since the 1850-beginning of this global instrument dataset.
- There was a shift down in the global 30-year average starting in July 1909, for a period that extended to October 1928. The next full 0.1°C shift arrived in November 1928 when the 30-year average increased by 0.1°C, attaining its previous level.
- That was then followed by 3 more shifts, each of different lengths.
- Then the same exact pattern of shifting repeats, with 1 cooling shift followed by 4 warming shifts.
- The warming since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) did not have a major impact on long-term HC4 averages until the early 1900's.
- Natural global warming since the LIA-rebound started has not been consistent, nor even predictable.
- As represented by the 30-year global average shifts, the first span of global warming (consisting of the first 4 shifts up) was very lengthy, reaching all the way into the 1970's - this long span being primarily well before the gargantuan consumer/industrial CO2 emissions from the late 20th century of the modern era.
- The amount of long-term increase for the last 4 shifts equals +0.4°C, the same as the earlier 'up' shifts, but it occurred over a shorter time span.
Does all of the above mean that the future will be an exact repeat of the pattern? Well, the definitive answer to that is 'no'.
There is no denying that, in general, modern climate change closely resembles what has taken place in the past. The similarities are evident, despite short-term climate variations that produce observable differences in duration, levels and intensity.
As the latest peer-reviewed research indicates, modern climate scientists are finally rediscovering (for example and example) the climate truths that their predecessors were aware of: natural earthly/solar/cosmic forces produce repeating (and similar) climate oscillations/cycles, creating dominant influences that dictate overall patterns for long-term climate change.
Yes, the human influence does exist, but it is a distinctly minor player in the long-term scheme of climate patterns.
And because these amazing pattern similarities happen in a chaotic system, they can neither be predicted, nor controlled. Those stubborn facts are continually ignored by advocates of human-caused climate change predictions.
Note: This monthly temperature dataset and Excel used to calculate moving 30-year averages. First, monthly anomalies were used to calculate a 12-month average for each month. Then using an estimate of 14.0C for the global temperature average of the 20th century, 12-month absolute temperatures were calculated from the calculated 12-month average anomalies. Finally, 30-year (360-month) absolute global averages were calculated. Excel's rounding function used to identify ±0.1C changes.