But after a natural warming ENSO 'spike,' such as the one covering the 2015-2016 period, Earth's frequent natural reaction is to enter a cooling phase, which this time apparently commenced after the peak in February 2016.
The adjacent chart reveals the exact same lower troposphere (LT) warming and cooling spikes as the prior chart, but using a different plotting style.
This different style does not depict as much detail regarding the actual monthly temperatures as the earlier chart did. This style chart leaves a stronger impression that monthly global warming has been on a continuous upswing, instead of the actual frequent ups/downs of monthly climate temperature change.
For this chart, we changed from a simple 12-month average for both CO2 and temperatures to a 36-month average for both. In addition, a linear temperature trend curve (see dashed maroon line) has been added.
#1. As in the prior article, this chart indicates a long-term global warming trend of 1.07°C by 2100AD - this includes the most recent warming phase of ENSO. [Linear trends are not predictions - they have no predictive power since over the short-term they can change dramatically.]
#2. The chart's 36-month simple moving average (red curve) of LT temperatures indicates an extended pause - i.e. the 'Hiatus' - in overall global warming, from approximately mid-1999 to mid-2015.
#3. The chart's CO2 36-month moving average of ppm levels reveals a continuous linear growth status, whereas the 36-month satellite temp average is anything but.
The datasets used for this chart and the prior article's chart are exactly the same. However, the plot styles are different providing a different context of the cooling/warming of global temperatures. The different context is valuable and there will be future 'C3' charts depicting different plot styles (providing additional context for the reader) using the same dataset and sub-datasets.
- This chart's linear trend is exactly the same: a trend that indicates a +1.07°C warming by 2100AD - a rather non-catastrophic warming trend that will likely produce more climate change benefit for the world than harm.
- The recent weak scientific attempts to disappear the existence of the sideways movement of overall global warming is clearly debunked by the actual 12 and 36-month averages of LT temperatures from 1999-2015. The real empirical evidence confirms the 'Pause.'
- This chart also shows that CO2 levels are not driving the considerable spikes of warming and cooling that take place - natural forces overwhelm any CO2 impact.
Note: Excel used to calculate averages, trends, and to chart the dataset plots. Lower troposphere (LT) temperature satellite datasets - RSS and UAH - an equal weighting monthly average dataset used in chart's plot; NOAA's atmospheric CO2 dataset.