The 2013 year-end update of short-term drought conditions across the contiguous U.S. has been released.
The latest NOAA empirical evidence confirms that the drought trend has improved (i.e., lesser drought conditions are better than greater) since 1950. Not reflected on this chart is that the aqua-colored trend is an actual improvement to the trend stretching back to 1895, the inception of dataset.
Why 1950 for this drought chart's trend?
The IPCC now considers the year 1950 as the marker for CO2-driven catastrophic climate change. The climate "experts" and computer models that the UN's IPCC relies on predicted that droughts would become a major issue starting in the second-half of the 20th century.
Good news...the IPCC experts were wrong, again. This NOAA chart represents the indisputable facts.
As an aside, this 1895-2013 chart also depicts how the climate is constantly changing over extended periods - going from one extreme to another. This is clear documentation of the natural climate change that occurs and what skeptics emphasize, while at the same time, anti-CO2 fanatics and global warming alarmists completely deny.
Let's start with a couple of known-knowns: 1st, Hollywood is in the business of make-believe and fantasies; 2nd, Jessica Alba is definitely a drop-dead, freaking gorgeous Hollywood actress.
Of course, Jessica might be very pleasing to the eye, as many actresses and actors are, but inherited beauty genetics does not mean one will necessarily have a high IQ (or even impressive acting abilities).
Unfortunately for Jessica's fans, she is proving that the Hollywood bimbo caricature (ie, low IQ) is alive and well. By embracing known anti-science, she is confirming the bimbo label. This time though, instead of the fraudulent vaccines-cause-autism "science" pushed by majority of Hollywood stars, Alba is claiming that hypothetical human-caused "global warming" is producing extreme weather events and climate change.
As with Hollywood's autism-vaccine embarrassment, the "man-causes-all-climate-change" science is straight out of the comic book movie science. Bob Tisdale does an admirable and exhaustive take down of the comic-like climate science fantasy that Jessica and other Hollywood anti-science stars hope to propagandize in the forthcoming Showtime faux-documentary, named "Years of Living Dangerously."
(Is this just an obvious case of her wanting bigger and more prestigious roles that has driven Jessica to lie down on the 'climate porn' casting couch?)
Anywho, as Tisdale points out, the empirical evidence is indisputable: modern bad weather events are not unusual. In fact, the frequency of extreme weather has actually decreased over the last decade.
Sooo, let's review here: Jessica and her Hollywood-buddy scientists stars completely ignore the well established scientific evidence, and instead, rely exclusively on their consumption of hysterical daily TV news-bogosity. Their TV-science approach to weather completely eliminates the 'forest' of severe weather events over decades (even centuries), as reported by the press at the time. This superficial Hollywood "knowledge" and shallow intellectual curiosity conveniently ignores all historical context, especially when it facilitates cherry-picking propaganda advantages.
Well, enough of gorgeous Jessica Alba and Holly-dufus chatter. Back to climate reality and that boring empirical-based science.
Previously, 'C3' published an article that documented what NOAA's science was showing: that the celebrated Kyoto agreement failed spectacularly in stopping human CO2 emissions, and that those "expert" global warming predictions of CO2's impact on global temperatures were significantly wrong.
Since 1979 (when satellite temperature measurements became standard practice), the global human CO2 emissions added to the atmosphere has been some 24 billion tons/per year, on average.
Despite that incredible amount of human CO2 over the last 15 years, the RSS satellite dataset has experienced a per century trend of only +0.24°C - essentially flat. In contrast, for the prior 15 years, the per century trend was +3.0°C. The glaring global temperature deceleration over the last 15 years is why many experts are now thinking Earth may be entering a global cooling phase.
The above chart depicts global temperature change in another manner. What does a percentage change in CO2 levels do to a 3-year temperature change? Per Hollywood fantasy movie-science, would an actual 1.5% increase of CO2 levels cause accelerating, runaway temperature change as alarmists contend?
To the data we go. The chart's green curve represents the actual moving 3-year increases in atmospheric CO2 levels - those increases ranged from +0.63% to 1.99 %, averaging 1.43% over the 383 periods (expressed in decimal format on chart - a hint for Jessica, 1.0% = 0.01; 20% = 0.2, etc).
The blue dots represent the 3-year temperature change. Look for the black 'X' on the chart - that is the 3-year temperature difference between November 2010 and November 2013 (a minus 0.18°C).
Look closely at those blue dots. Do you see accelerating warming? Temperature changes that exhibit the predicted, disastrous, in-your-face, positive trend upward? (If you do, you're as dumb as Jessica, btw.)
In fact, that red curve on the above chart confirms your own eyeballs. It's a 6th order trend fit of the observed 3-year temperature changes. The recent trend is down, opposite of the "accelerating" the-oceans-are-going-to-boil temperature change IPCC experts have long predicted and Hollywood has fantasized about.
So what does this simple plot of climate empirical measurements mean? The obvious is that temperature change (blue dots) has no relationship to the constant increases in CO2 levels (green curve). In actual statistical terms, the correlation between the 3-year temperature change and the 3-year per cent changes in CO2 levels is a measly 0.168. (Note: a similar weak correlation result exists for the NASA Land/Sea dataset since 1979.)
Simply put, the visible and statistical relationship are both negligible, at best.
The chart's empirical evidence is merciless. Global temperature change variation is figuratively all-over-the-map, from positive to negative extremes while CO2 change remains within a very constant narrow range.
The science conclusions are unequivocal. Human CO2 emissions are not causing the hypothetical, accelerated global warming. CO2 is not causing a 'tipping point' temperature change that continuously increases. Human CO2 emissions are not the acclaimed 'thermostat' or 'control knob' or 'dial' that bureaucrats and politicians can somehow tweak to control Earth's climate and weather. Eliminating human CO2 emissions will not stop climate variation, nor extreme weather events.
In conclusion: as actual climate scientists would say to the anti-science, low IQ, beautiful Hollywood crowd: "it's Nature, stupid."
As shown, the actual number of 2013 fire incidents is close to matching a historic low of the available dataset and represents a 60% reduction from the 30-year average ending in 1999.
Regarding total acres burnt in 2013 (YTD - Dec. 2013), the 4+ million acres is well below the 5-year moving average but remains higher than the 30-year simple average ending 1999. To put the year's 4+ million into context, a single Colorado fire in 1898 raged across 4 counties (10,088 square miles) representing some 6.4 million acres.
On the chart is a dashed black line indicating the year 1998. As the dataset reveals, the total yearly acres burnt started a continuous climb after 1997, peaking in 2006. Every year since 1998 has seen total acres consumed by fire exceeding the 30-year average ending in 1999.
Was this increase in total acres burnt due to the modern global warming affecting the U.S.?
The actual temperature data indicates the opposite. Since 1998, the U.S. temperature trend has been a negative 3.2F degrees/century - yes, that is a minus trend covering the 16-year period from December 1997 through November 2013. And as this recent article about Alaska's cooling since the turn of the century confirms, its forest fires have not been a result of 21st century "global warming."
In contrast, the U.S. did have a significant warming trend from the span of 1970 to 1997. The huge number of forest fire incidents during the late 1970s and early 1980s is clearly evident in the above chart. What is also clearly evident is that Republican President Ronald Reagan was able to mitigate with dispatch the awful malaise of the previous Democrat administration's (President Jimmy Carter) forest fires. ;-)
"The challenges we face are serious. We are already beginning to feel
the effects of climate change – floods, heat waves and droughts are
becoming more severe, driving up food and energy prices. And rising
temperatures and more intense storms pose a serious threat to our
infrastructure throughout the country."
Since he can't be stupid, then his stated falsehoods are done to purposefully mislead others, no? Just like Obama, one would speculate.
(Hmmm...does anyone in this administration tell the truth about anything, ever? Benghazi? NSA domestic spying? Operation 'Fast & Furious' sanctioned gun-running? IRS harassment of Obama's political opponents?).
Regarding more intense storms, it is known fact (i.e. empirical evidence) that neither storm severity nor frequency is increasing.
Case in point: As this plot of global temperatures (NOAA dataset) and tornados since 1950 reveals, world temperatures have trended higher (note pause since late 90's), while the frequency of severe/extreme tornados (F3-F5) trended lower.
Extreme weather disasters have plagued humans over recorded time, well before atmospheric CO2 levels of 350ppm had been reached...the years 1958 and 1959 saw multiple disasters that would easily rival any of those that took place during 2011-2012...per the current alarmists' hysterical style of analysis, these '58-59 events most certainly would qualify as examples of extreme climate change (image source)
Over recent years, green-sharia scientists, pundits and mainstream journalists have claimed that every new severe weather event is a sign of climate change because atmospheric CO2 levels are above 350 ppm - they say 2012 weather disasters are examples of this, but they conveniently forget about 1957...a terrible year for sub-350 climate change eruptions
A University of Illinois "scientist" named Wuebbles goes hysterical about 2012 severe weather events - he thinks they are unusual, unprecedented...as usual though, green alarmist, taxpayer-funded scientists conveniently forget past history of climate change and bad weather
100% of climate scientists now agree that accelerating global warming has robustly stalled- the IPCC's gold-standard UK HadCRUT global temperature dataset confirms what skeptical scientists have long publicly discussed
There no longer is any serious debate of the non-existence of dangerous, accelerating global warming from human CO2 emissions - literally, from all current climate empirical evidence, it does not exist.
In the scientific real world though, there is an abundance of peer reviewed, solid scientific evidence pointing conclusively to a future of both moderate temperature and climate change.
As the above chart reveals, atmospheric CO2 levels have constantly increased since 1990 - see recent CO2 charts here.
In contrast, the IPCC's gold-standard global dataset (above chart) confirms temperatures have stalled since 1998 - actually, they have slightly cooled at a -0.08 degrees/century trend.
The chart's solid blue curve is a simple three year moving average of non-scary global temperature change that current political elites conveniently ignores and the MSM refuses to report.
Current global temperatures are significantly below NASA's climate model and "expert" predictions - note the dotted red line on chart.
All the major climate agency computer models, based on human CO2 emissions, have failed spectacularly.
Modern weather disasters (e.g., blizzards, tropical storms, etc.) portrayed by political elites and MSM "reporters" as caused by "climate change" are the exactly the same bad weather disasters that took place during earlier periods of low atmospheric CO2.
Unlike the 1950's, when a severe weather event was just called 'bad weather,' now days these events are identified as climate change or climate disruption, caused by humans. Every new hurricane, blizzard, flood and forest fire is quickly labeled as the new normal, which infers a similar event/disaster must never have happened before.
Unfortunately, for the climate ignorant, the 1950's were not an era of stable climate conditions and unchanging temperatures. Although the black & white TV entertainment was fairly simple back then, that period's climate and weather were just as complex...and deadly... as our current 21st century variety.
Below is a list of early 1950's "climate change" events and disasters that were originally identified as bad weather; and, interestingly, climate issues the previous generation of scientists were worried about at that time. A simple review of this list provokes, justifiably, a common sense climate-epiphany: my god, it's the same old, same old.
Green-sharia scientists in the pay of Big-Green constantly promote the idea that recent floods are the result of human-caused global warming and climate change - yet all empirical evidence and objective research proves that modern flooding is not increasing in terms of frequency and size
During 2012, parts of Spain experienced devastating floods. This terrible weather event was immediately claimed as more proof that climate change, due to global warming, is causing extreme violent disasters.
But are these "climate change" claims accurate, based on the latest scientific research or just more green-sharia propaganda?
Per the 2012 peer reviewed Spanish research of Barredo et al., the following was determined:
"..."the absence of a significant positive trend in the adjusted insured flood losses in Spain," which suggests, in their words, that "the increasing trend in the original losses is explained by socio-economic factors, such as the increases in exposed insured properties, value of exposed assets and insurance penetration." And they add that "there is no residual signal that remains after adjusting for these factors," so that "the analysis rules out a discernible influence of anthropogenic climate change on insured losses," which they say "is consistent with the lack of a positive trend in hydrologic floods in Spain in the last 40 years." [J. I. Barredo, D. Saurí, M. C. Llasat2012: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences]
Additional EU research that disproves the anti-CO2 propaganda of IPCC-related "scientists":
France - "...Wilhelm et al. (2012) say their study shows that "sediment sequences from high altitude lakes can provide reliable records of flood-frequency and intensity-patterns related to extreme precipitation events," closing with the warning that "such information is required to determine the possible impact of the current phase of global warming." And when this warning is heeded, it is clearly seen that the climate-model-inspired claim that global warming will lead to "an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of such events" - would appear to be just the opposite of what is suggested by Wilhelm et al.'s real-world study..."
Germany - "In light of these several observations -- plus the fact that "most decadal-scale climate-change impacts on flooding (Petrow and Merz, 2009) are small compared to historic peaks in flood occurrence (Mudelsee et al., 2006)" -- Bormann et al. (2011) conclude their report by stating that these significant facts "should be emphasized in the recent discussion on the effect of climate change on flooding." And if this is done, there is no other conclusion to be drawn but that the warming experienced in Germany over the past century has not led to unprecedented flooding throughout the country. In fact, it has not led to any increase in flooding."
United Kingdom - "As a result of this multifaceted endeavor, they (Macklin et al. (2005)) determined that "the majority of the largest and most widespread recorded floods in Great Britain [had] occurred during cool, moist periods," and that "comparison of the British Holocene palaeoflood series ... with climate reconstructions from tree-ring patterns of subfossil bog oaks in northwest Europe also suggests that a similar relationship between climate and flooding in Great Britain existed during the Holocene, with floods being more frequent and larger during relatively cold, wet periods."
"...they (Hannaford and Marsh (2008)) state that longer river flow records from five additional catchments they studied "provide little compelling evidence for long-term (>50 year) trends but show evidence of pronounced multi-decadal fluctuations." Lastly, they add that "in comparison with other indicators, there were fewer trends in flood magnitude," and that "trends in peaks-over-threshold frequency and extended-duration maxima at a gauging station were not necessarily associated with increasing annual maximum instantaneous flow."
Switzerland - "Reiterating the fact that "the findings of this study suggest that the frequency of extreme summer-autumn precipitation events (i.e. flood events) and the associated atmospheric pattern in the Eastern Swiss Alps was not enhanced during warmer (or drier) periods," Stewart et al. (2011) acknowledge that "evidence could not be found that summer-autumn floods would increase in the Eastern Swiss Alps in a warmer climate of the 21st century," in contrast to the projections of the regional climate models that have suggested otherwise."
Italy - "Diodato et al. (2008) undertook a detailed analysis of "the Calore River Basin (South Italy) erosive rainfall using data from 425-year-long series of both observations (1922-2004) and proxy-based reconstructions (1580-1921)." This work revealed pronounced inter-decadal variations...researchers write that "in recent years, climate change (generally assumed as synonymous with global warming) has become a global concern and is widely reported in the media." And with respect to the concern that both droughts and floods will become both more frequent and more severe as the planet warms, they say their study indicates that "climate in the Calore River Basin has been largely characterized by naturally occurring weather anomalies in past centuries (long before industrial CO2 emissions), not only in recent years," and that there has been a "relevant smoothing" of such events during the modern era."
Conclusions: Scientific charlatans associated with Big-Green organizations (or in the pay of) primarily rely on the real-world tragedies of severe weather events to push their anti-CO2, anti-job green agenda. Multiple EU studies disprove the green propaganda that climate change (i.e., global warming) is causing floods of greater frequency and size. The actual empirical evidence simply and clearly refutes the bogus green-sharia claims.
Additional severe-weather charts and listing of severe-weather events.
The attempt to label Hurricane Sandy as an "unprecedented" event due to climate change and global warming from human CO2 emissions is simply without merit - comparing 'Sandy' and other recent hurricanes to those in the past establishes that this supposed "superstorm" is just one of many 'Category 1' storms
(click on image to enlarge)
Despite the massive flooding devastation delivered by Hurricane Sandy on the huge and dense NY/NJ metropolitan area, it is not some "unprecedented" storm event that the U.S. East Coast has suffered. Nor is it a result of "high" CO2 emissions from man-made activities.
As this chart depicts, over the last 10 years, the East Coast has been hammered by 7 hurricanes, including the 'Category 1' Hurricane Sandy.
But for the 10 years ending 1962, during a period of substantially less atmospheric CO2, the East Coast was struck 10 times by 'Category 1' and higher hurricanes. (Note the 'Category 3' hurricane that wreaked incredible havoc on Long Island during 1954.)
All of these past hurricanes plotted on the chart originated east of the U.S coast, out in the Atlantic, just like Hurricane Sandy. And many of them snaked their way up the East Coast and finally made landfall at higher latitudes, just like 'Sandy.'
Conclusion: When the weather facts are examined objectively, Hurricane Sandy was not an "unprecedented" nor a "superstorm" severe weather event. And higher CO2 levels do not cause more hurricanes or stonger hurricanes to make landfall along the East Coast. To blame "climate change" and "global warming" for a 'Category 1' hurricane during the normal hurricane season is utter nonsense.
The NCDC (an agency of NOAA) publishes global ocean temperature records, which confirm that global warming of the oceans did not cause Hurricane Sandy - in fact, their most recent temperature measurements reveal that ocean temperatures have actually remained flat over last 15 years (thru September 2012), while CO2 levels have increased
(click on images to enlarge)
The chart on the left is a plot of global ocean temperatures for the 15-year period (180 months) ending September 2012. Clearly, since late 1997, global warming of the oceans has not happened and thus can not be the cause of Hurricane Sandy. (Unfortunately, some incredibly dishonest politicians and pundits have actually stated that anthropogenic global warming was the cause.)
The plot on the right represents ocean temperatures for the 15-year period ending September 1997. This chart depicts a modest warming trend of ocean waters, including an increase of CO2 levels.
When comparing the two different 15-year time periods, the following can be ascertained:
CO2 levels for 15-year period ending Sept 2012: Increased by 30 ppm
Ocean linear temperature trend equates to: +0.007 degree increase by year 2100
Polynomial trend and 3-year average indicate a cooling is in process
CO2 levels for the 15-year period ending Sept 1997: Increased by 22 ppm
Ocean linear temperature trend equates to: +1.10 degree increase by year 2100
Polynomial trend and 3-year average confirmed a warming trend during this previous 15-year period
Conclusions: The growing increases of atmospheric CO2 levels have not caused a global warming of the oceans over the last 15 years. Global warming was not the cause of Hurricane Sandy, which was essentially a typical weather hurricane that naturally occurs.
During 2012, the U.S. experienced a hot and dry summer with climate doomsday scientists and pundits claiming it was the most severe ever, and a sure sign of hhuman caused extreme climate change - ooops, wrong again, per NOAA
A select group of climate scientists and weather experts are forever trying to explain each severe weather event as a result of global warming from human CO2 emissions. They, and the usual parade of fame-seeking climate doomsday activists, then state "this is what extreme climate change looks like."
Although 2012 has been a warm year in the U.S. (probably not the warmest based on accurate temperature measurements,though), the claim of the U.S. being in the most severe drought condition ever is blatantly wrong and purposefully deceiving.
The adjacent NOAA/NCDC images (as of August) are of current drought conditions versus the severe droughts of 1988 and 1934. Clearly, the 2012 drought is less severe and less widespread than the previous droughts.
Droughts in the U.S. are not unusual - in fact, almost every year there are bad drought conditions in some region of the U.S. The 2012 drought is no exception and remains well within the normal weather variation experienced before.
Indeed, both the U.S. and the rest of the world have well documented periods of very severe weather in the past that makes the bad weather of 2012 pale in comparison, and such is the case for the summer of 2012.
Conclusions: Any climate "scientist" or weather "expert" who claims that typical severe weather events are examples of human-caused extreme climate change is, simply stated, a liar. The most recent U.S. severe drought is likely not a result of extreme climate change, but instead typical weather variation that the U.S. experiences, which NOAA and the mainstream press have long documented.
Climate doomsday alarmists often fabricate extreme climate change scenarios that have no basis in reality - one such scenario is that global warming, from rising CO2 emissions, will make U.S. East Coast winter storms worse
Read here. The vast majority of climate disaster scenarios, which climate doomsday scientists and pundits predict, are never realized. The increasing intensity and frequency of severe storms is one such failed prediction.
The IPCC's political-agenda scientists, and most Hollywood celebrities concurred, that the supposed global warming from human CO2 emissions would produce more severe winter storms ('nor'easters') on the U.S. East Coast resulting in untold devastation and human misery.
Researchers decided to analyze the empirical evidence to determine if the Hollywood and IPCC "scientists" were correct. As this included chart reveals, over the last 55 years, there is no evidence that storm intensity increased despite the huge increase in CO2 Emissions.
"The authors write that "East Coast Winter Storms (ECWS), commonly known as nor'easters, are among the most severe weather phenomena to impact the Northeastern United States,"...defined an ECWS as an area of low pressure with a closed circulation, moving in a general south-southwest to north-northeast direction and containing winds greater than 10.3 m/sec during at least one 6-hour period,"... they calculated the speeds of all ECWS over the 55-year period 1951-2006...researchers report that "the speed of ECWS during their passage over or near the east coast of the United states varied substantially from storm to storm, month to month, and season to season." However,...over the entire time period of their study, Bernhardt and DeGaetano rightly declare "there was no clear trend in ECWS speed."" [Jase E. Bernhardt and Arthur T. DeGaetano 2012: Natural Hazards]
Conclusions: The long predicted extreme climate change from CO2 levels and global warming has not happened. There has not been an increase/decrease of East Coast severe winter storms that would indicate a noteworthy change in existing natural climate variation.
IPCC climate doomsday advocates predict all sorts of calamitous, extreme climate change events from human CO2 emissions that seemingly fail to materialize - the lack of increased heavy precipitation events across the U.S. is another one of those failed predictions
Read here. Climate scientists again reviewed the empirical weather evidence to determine if there has been a surge of heavy precipitation events, as predicted by the IPCC and its climate models.
Per the IPCC and its climate doomsday acolytes, human CO2 emissions causes increased warming that causes greater water evaporation, which in turn will increase the frequency and volume of rainfall incidents. Obviously, the increase in heavy rainfall would then likely lead to an increase in flooding disaster incidents. The IPCC's climate models have been programmed to follow that assumption.
Yet when researchers actually check the climate model predictions against weather reality, the IPCC models are rarely correct. Mahajan et al. just determined that to be the case for the IPCC's heavy rainfall prediction.
"Noting that "extreme events of precipitation have a potential for impacting our social and economic activities,"...state that it is "essential to determine if there has been a systematic change in the extremes over the past years and what awaits us in the future owing to global warming," especially in light of the fact that "climate model projection studies suggest that intense precipitation would be on the rise as global temperatures increase due to increased greenhouse gas forcings in the future..."trends in monthly heavy precipitation, defined by a return period of one year, are assessed for statistical significance in observations and Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations over the contiguous United States...report that trends estimated from the two data sources they employed "straddle the margin of statistical significance, and hence a definitive answer to the question of increasing trend of heavy precipitation over the US cannot be arrived at by looking at observational data." And with nearly half (9 out of 20) of the GCMs employed in their study predicting trends that are "significantly different from the observations," they are forced to conclude that "the GCMs are not yet fully capable of simulating extremes of precipitation at a regional level,"" [Salil Mahajan, Gerald R. North, R. Saravanan, Marc G. Genton 2012: Climate Dynamics]
Conclusion: Human CO2 emissions, and the supposed global warming, are not causing an increase in heavy precipitation events across the U.S. as predicted. The IPCC's climate models again fail a crucial test when their output is compared to actual weather reality.
Read here. The vast majority of scientific research using actual climate evidence continues to disprove the doomsday predictions of the IPCC's climate modelers. The hypothesized catastrophic climate disasters that would be considered outside normal climate variation are just not happening.
The latest study confirming the failed predictions of the IPCC was completed by Tramblay et al. regarding extreme rainfall incidents in Morocco.
"Morocco is a North African country highly vulnerable to extreme precipitation events. In the present study, past trends in extreme precipitation and future projections using an ensemble of regional climate models (RCM) are evaluated." [Yves Tramblay, Wafae Badi, Fatima Driouech, Salaheddine El Adlouni, Luc Neppel, Eric Servat 2012: Global and Planetary Change]
"The authors write that "climate change is likely to produce more extreme precipitation events,"...they say that "for the Mediterranean basin, several studies indicate a possible amplification of precipitation extremes associated with a decrease of precipitation totals...which "could lead to an increased probability of occurrence of events inducing both floods and droughts"...employed data for ten measuring stations - Casablanca, Rabat, Larache and Tanger (Atlantic coast), Tetouan, Al Hoceima, Nador and Oujda (Mediterranean region), and Fes and Ifrane (Atlas mountainous area) - which they carefully analyzed for signs of the predicted precipitation-related phenomena..."Quoting the six scientists who performed the work, "the Mann-Kendall test indicates no significant trends in the data series for all the stations at the 5% significance level," and in like manner they report that "the Deviance test results between stationary generalized extreme value [GEV] models and non-stationary GEV models with time as covariate [also] indicate no evidence of trends in extreme precipitation for all the Moroccan stations.""
'C3' Editor Conclusions: The IPCC predicted extreme climate change as represented by severe precipitation events is not happening. This research out of Morocco seems to corroborate previous research done across the globe indicating a lack of discernible trend for severe precipitation events.
Taxpayer funded climate-doomsday scientists and the mainstream media ambulance chasers perpetuate the myth that today's severe weather events are a result of human-CO2 caused extreme climate change - actually, today's bad weather seems rather mild to similar events decades before large human CO2 emissions
Conclusion: The current extreme fear-mongering and severe hysterical claims emanating from the mouths of climate-doomsday scientists and their MSM cohorts are truly unprecedented - today's extreme climate change and severe weather incidents, not so much.
Read here. Climate-lies from doomsday scientists, associated with universities, is becoming much more common. The latest is the brazen lie that the current drought climate condition within the U.S. is a record.
It's not even close, as the adjacent empricial evidence reveals. The 1930's (top graphic) clearly had drought conditions well surpassing those of 2012 (bottom graphic).
And, of course, the famous 1930's drought and heat waves took place under a regime of low atmospheric CO2 levels.
The IPCC's climate doomsday scientists have been predicting that modern global warming would cause extreme climate change leading to an increase of severe weather events - new EU-Netherlands research proves the alarmists wrong
Read here. The Dutch are use to stormy weather and have a long history of recording such events. A researcher decided to investigate the records going back 101 years to determine if severe weather incidents had increased.
"In another blow to the alarmist fallacy that climate change is causing more extreme weather, a paper published today in the journal Climatic Change finds that windstorm damage in the Netherlands is presently the lowest over the entire 101 year period of study...The resulting windstorm loss time-series for the Netherlands contains some interesting features. Annual losses are stable over the whole period and have a dominant cycle with a period of about 50 years. The Netherlands is currently experiencing the minimum aggregate storm damage of the past 100 years, though only slightly lower than a quiet period of 50 years ago. Both of these minima are driven primarily by lowered rates of occurrence of damaging storms." [Stephen Cusack 2012: Climatic Change]
Conclusion: As this new peer reviewed study demonstrates, human CO2 emissions are not causing extreme climate change in the EU region of the Netherlands. Previous studies have also found severe weather incidents not increasing over the modern era, around the world.
The IPCC predictions of severe weather events, such as droughts, floods, storms and etc. due to global warming has been a rather embarrassing failure - and another study confirms that extreme climate change is not happening as result of warming
Read here. The UN, the IPCC and a group of climate doomsday scientists continue to predict an increase of severe weather from modern warming (which has gone missing for the last 15 years), plus constantly claim that any recent drought or flood or storm or whatever is the result of CO2 emissions and associated warming.
Unfortunately for them, their actual proof is literally non-existent - they have no empirical evidence to stand on, other than anecdotal stories and/or singular, one-off events. Instead, they base their predictions and their foolish claims on computer simulations. Of course, what they always fail to mention is that the climate models were programmed by the climate model "scientists" to produce severe weather event predictions from...wait...take a guess...yes!, from global warming.
However, as a plethora of studies before it, the Buntgen et al. research again finds that severe precipitation weather events have not increased in number or intensity as modern global warming took place.
"The authors state that anthropogenically-induced climate change is projected by climate models to increase the frequency, severity and probability of extreme meteorological phenomena; and many climate alarmists claim that we have been experiencing this effect of global warming...the nine researchers analyzed 11,873 annually-resolved and absolutely-dated ring-width measurement series from living and historical fir trees that had been sampled across France, Switzerland, Germany and the Czech Republic, and which continuously spanned the AD 962-2007 period...discovered there was "a fairly uniform distribution of hydroclimatic extremes throughout the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age and Recent Global Warming,"...extreme hydroclimatic phenomena were found to not be amplified in either number or strength in response to global warming, which leads one to suspect that the same likely holds true for other portions of the planet, in contradiction of vociferous climate-alarmist claims to the contrary." [Ulf Büntgen, Rudolf Brázdil, Karl-Uwe Heussner, Jutta Hofmann, Raymond Kontic, Tomáš Kyncl, Christian Pfister, Kateřina Chromá, Willy Tegel 2011: Quaternary Science Reviews]
Conclusion: Extreme climate change, in the form of increased and more powerful severe weather events, is not occurring as a result of modern global warming. The actual empirical evidence as presented in peer reviewed studies does not support the catastrophic weather predictions of the IPCC and climate doomsday scientists.
Climate doomsday scientists and chicken-little pundits claim AGW is causing more frequent severe weather events – empirical research though can’t establish any link between extreme climate change, severe weather trends & global warming
Read here. Let’s be honest about this – our nation is led by many pathetically stupid people (hmmm…pathological liars?) who consistently choose to utter clown-like statements. Despite the preponderance of empirical research, these chicken-little clowns continue to claim that human CO2 emissions and “global warming” have caused an increase in severe weather incidents.
Fortunately, for the world, peer reviewed research based on empirical evidence (not computer simulations) establishes that an increased frequency of severe weather incidents is not the result of AGW but of colder climatic conditions. Here are seven (7) EU studies confirming that:
1. An Alps study "refutes the notion that anthropogenic warming is causing an increase of climate extremes and making weather more variable and extreme… Not only did the author find no change in variability, but he also detected a ”centennial oscillating structure”."
2. A Mediterranean coastal study…” In addition,...make a point of noting that "the apparent increase in intense storms around 250 years ago lasts to about AD 1900," whereupon "intense meteorological activity seems to return to a quiescent interval after (i.e. during the 20th century AD)." And they add that, "interestingly, the two periods of most frequent superstorm strikes in the Aigues-Mortes Gulf (AD 455 and 1700-1900) coincide with two of the coldest periods in Europe during the late Holocene…”
3. A study for the Aquitaine region…”…finding that dune formation was generally most common during cooler climatic intervals. In the most recent of these cold periods, the authors note there is voluminous historical evidence of many severe North Atlantic wind storms in which the southward spread of sea ice and polar water during that time likely created "an increased thermal gradient between 50°N and 65°N which intensified storm activity in the North Atlantic… Hence, the long view of history suggests that the global warming of the past century or so has actually led to an overall decrease in North Atlantic storminess.”
4. A study from the “from two cores of the Pierre Blanche lagoon just south of Montpellier, France found evidence in the form of "washover events" that allowed them "to identify the strongest storms in the Mediterranean area" over the past four centuries… Such a decline in the occurrence of "superstorms" in the Mediterranean area -- if not their total disappearance -- is a significant observation running counter to the climate-alarmist claim that global warming both intensifies storms and brings more of them.”
5. A study from Northwestern France “linked high-resolution sediment and rock properties of materials found in cores collected from the Seine estuary in northwest France to climatic conditions of the past few thousand years… they report on "four prominent centennial-scale periods of stronger storminess, occurring with a pacing of ~1500 years," which they say are "likely to be related to the last four [of] Bond's Holocene cold events," the most recent of which was the Little Ice Age…”
6. A study from the macrotidal Bay of Vilaine…” while observing that "this shift most probably documents the transition from the MWP to the Little Ice Age," which led to the "increased storminess both in the marine and continental ecosystems… concluded their study by stating that "the preservation of medieval estuarine flood deposits implies that sediment reworking by marine dynamics was considerably reduced between 880 and 1050 AD," implying that during that considerably warmer period than most (if not all) of what followed it, "climatic conditions were probably mild enough to prevent coastal erosion in northwestern France."
7. A study from France’s Atlantic coast…”analyzed tide-gauge, wind and atmospheric pressure data over the period 1951-… This work indicated that the number of atmospheric depressions (storms) and strong surge winds for this region, in the words of the author, "are becoming less frequent" and that "ongoing trends of climate variability show a decrease in the frequency and hence the gravity of coastal flooding" over the period of study.”
Conclusions: Extreme climate change – global warming during late 20th century has not led to an increase of severe weather per the multitude of recent empirical research studies (not computer simulations). Climate doomsday scientists and chicken-little politicians, primarily anti-science Democrat left-liberals-progressives, continue to mislead and frighten the public with fearmongering tactics about global warming and CO2 regardless of the empirical evidence. Instead, if the recent slight global cooling trend continues one could expect more stormy weather.
The IPCC, and its grumpy band of Climategate alarmist scientists, predicted extreme climate change from human caused global warming - specifically, they predicted more frequent and more severe hurricane landfalls - they were wrong
Read here. The adjacent chart reveals the number of days between landfalls of a major hurricane striking the U.S. Since the last Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane strike, it's been 2,412 days and counting.
Since 1900, that is the longest span ever between major landfalls. And this significant climate science factoid is contrary to the IPCC "experts" whose consensus prediction categorically claimed that these large devastating storms would be more intense and more frequent, due to the increasing human CO2 emissions and global warming.
As is obvious to even the most fanatical believer in the CAGW religion, the scientific, empirical evidence readily documents that the CO2-alarmist "experts" have been spectacularly wrong.
With that said, the U.S. is long overdue for a major severe hurricane strike and it could well happen in 2012. Then again, it might not. Either way, the IPCC has proven to be incapable of any scientific predictive skill.
The EPA, the IPCC and the USGCRP bureaucrats have erroneously predicted, per their global climate models, that southwest U.S. would become drier with more droughts - the latest research finds that these predictions are result of climate modeling failure
Read here. Climate alarmist scientists and multi-agency bureaucrats continue to produce erroneous assessments and misguided advice for policymakers based on global climate models. Computer models, and especially the global climate variety, have been a fountain of bogus predictions for years.
In a new study, experts documented another case of failed of global computer simulations that confirms why these hugely expensive 'big picture' models are pretty much worthless. Counter to the EPA and IPCC's predictions, the southwest USA is actually less likely to suffer from droughts, water shortages, forest fires, agriculture crop failure or insect infestations based on new research.
Why were the tax-payer sucking, big government agencies, soooo wrong? The global climate modelers forgot to tell the bureaucrats that the models did not include the impact of mountains on the climate and the bureaucrats were too stupid and/or lazy to ask - doh!
"A research team...[Gao et al.]...investigated that the differences between how large-scale global climate models and finer-scale regional climate models handled the characteristics of moisture flow in the atmosphere over the southwestern U.S...The regional climate models (RCMs) include much finer scale processes than are included in the global climate models (GCMs). In the Southwest, this includes a finer representation of the complex, mountainous terrain which plays a key role in the regional precipitation processes...compared how the RCMs handled the processes that lead to precipitation across the Southwest compared to how the processes were simulated in GCMs. They generally found that the better representation of the terrain by the RCMs allowed them to generate more future rainfall...result from Gao et al. showing that RCMs generated more future precipitation than GCMs in the Southwestern U.S...RCMs allowed them to better simulate the snow accumulation and ablation at high elevations and consequently “runoff in the Colorado River Basin is less susceptible to a warming climate in RCMs than in GCMs.”" [Yanhong Gao, L. Ruby Leung, Eric P. Salathé Jr., Francina Dominguez, Bart Nijssen, Dennis P. Lettenmaier 2012: Geophysical Research Letters]
Conclusion: Global climate modeling failure is the rule rather than the exception in regards to the computer simulations that EPA & IPCC bureaucrats and policymakers rely on. New research regarding a regional climate in the U.S. substantiates the failed predictive capability of global climate models. As a result, these global climate models guarantee massive amounts of government investments being wasted on erroneous climate change impacts, such as more droughts in the southwest U.S..
Read here. Global warming alarmists and hysterical pundits/reporters are now apparently turning every nasty weather event into "proof" that current global warming is causing extreme climate change. Unfortunately for said alarmists, the empirical evidence completely undercuts claims that warming causes bad weather - essentially, the claims are all hype for several reasons.
One, there has been no global warming for the last 15 years - the climate observation datasets are unequivocal about this.
Two, from the recent past, it is well documented that very severe weather has been part of our climate over the last 100 years, well before the modern warming from the late 1970's to the late 1990's.
Three, EU scientists (Sabatier et al.) have now documented that severe weather was worst in the historical past when temperatures were colder, not warmer.
"The authors write that "the Mediterranean region is one of the world's most vulnerable areas with respect to global warming,"...they thus consider it to be extremely important to determine what impact further temperature increases might have on the storminess of the region...produced a high-resolution record of paleostorm events along the French Mediterranean coast over the past 7000 years...from the sediment bed of Pierre Blanche Lagoon [near Montpellier, France]...nine French scientists, as they describe it, "recorded seven periods of increased storm activity at 6300-6100, 5650-5400, 4400-4050, 3650-3200, 2800-2600, 1950-1400, and 400-50 cal yr BP," the latter of which intervals they associate with the Little Ice Age. And they go on to state, "in contrast," that their results show that "the Medieval Climate [global warming] Anomaly (1150-650 cal yr BP) was characterized by low storm activity." They further note that these changes in coastal hydrodynamics were in phase with those observed over the Eastern North Atlantic...and that the periods of increased storminess they identified seem to correspond to periods of Holocene cooling detected in the North Atlantic..." [Pierre Sabatier, Laurent Dezileau, Christophe Colin, Louis Briqueu, Frédéric Bouchette, Philippe Martinez, Giuseppe Siani, Olivier Raynal, Ulrich Von Grafenstein 2012: Quaternary Research]
Conclusion: The claimed extreme climate change and associated severe weather events over the last 15 years are not the result of "global warming." In addition, historical empirical evidence makes it clear that severe weather incidents increase as the climate cools, not when it warms. It is well established that the past cooler climates have had profound negative impacts on society whereas warmer climates have been more beneficent.
Researchers analyzing data for extreme climate change risk continue to discover evidence that the predicted results are not happening - lack of extreme rainfall in the Himalayas is most recent example
Read here. The "scientists" associated with the UN's IPCC had predicted severe weather events would increase both in frequency and intensity due to global warming. Unique areas of the world, such as the Himalayas, were considered to be especially vulnerable to these events.
To assess the extreme climate change risk that the Himalayas faced, researchers set out to document the severe rainfall events that were long predicted.
"Nandargi and Dhar decided to present "a brief review of the available information and data for extreme rainfall events that were experienced in different sectors of the Himalayas during the last 137 years" in an attempt to determine "the impact of climate change on the extreme one-day rainfall of the Himalayan region, in the context of rising temperatures."...Working with data obtained from 475 measurement stations...said that there is an increase in the frequencies of extreme rainfall events from the 1951-1960 decade onwards," but only until "there was a sudden decrease in the frequency of extreme rainfall events in all the four categories in the recent period of 2001-2007...concluding words of the two scientists, "it is somewhat baffling as to whether climate change has any impact on extreme rainfall events in the entire Himalayan region..." [S. Nandargia, O. N. Dhara 2011: Hydrological Sciences Journal]
Conclusion: The extreme climate change risk promulgated by the big global insurance companies and their scientific minions has proven to be without merit when the actual empirical evidence is closely scrutinized.
Without any empirical evidence, the mainstream media continues to report that global warming is causing an increase of severe weather events - latest scientific analysis of tornadoes disproves IPCC alarmist claims to be meritless
Read here. The IPCC continues to push the bogus claim that "global warming" (supposedly due to human CO2) is (and will) causing more severe weather events with the publication of their new 'SREX' report.
The incredibly stupid and lazy journalists covering climate science dutifully report the desired summary propaganda that the IPCC wants heard. Yet if they made any effort, the reporters would soon discover that the empirical evidence does not support the the IPCC hypothesis that past warming has caused more severe weather.
The adjacent violent tornado chart is a clear cut example that alarmist claims of more severe weather due to warming is indeed not factual.
In addition, climate science journalists are soooo lazy, and obviously enraptured (cult-like?) with misleading the public about climate disasters, they always seem to miss the IPCC's fine print, such as this in the new 'SREX' report:
“While there is evidence that increases in greenhouse gases have likely caused changes in some types of extremes, there is no simple answer to the question of whether the climate, in general, has become more or less extreme.”...“There is medium evidence and high agreement that long-term trends in normalized losses have not been attributed to natural or anthropogenic climate change.”...“The statement about the absence of trends in impacts attributable to natural or anthropogenic climate change holds for tropical and extratropical storms and tornados.”...“The absence of an attributable climate change signal in losses also holds for flood losses.”
Conclusions: First, severe weather events have not increased as a result of global warming - in fact, even the IPCC admits there is no increasing trend of said events. Second, climate science reporters and the mainstream media continue to mislead and misinform the public and policymakers with bogus reports of 'cherry-picked' extreme weather events, both current and predicted.
Read here. It has become a common practice among those advocating government control of CO2 emissions and higher energy prices that all modern extreme weather events are a result of global warming. These claims have taken on the characteristics of urban myths believed by those who have high disdain for empirical evidence.
Although there is ample scientific evidence that global warming has been non-existent over the past 10 years and that extreme weather events happened with alarming frequency prior to the modern era, a new peer reviewed study out of China shatters the urban legend that global warming causes more frequent and larger snowstorms.
Research on extreme weather events:
After the $21 billion snowstorm disaster experienced in China during 2008, Chinese researchers (Hou et al.) closely examined 500 years of historical data to determine how unique this gargantuan snowstorm was.
"From 10 January to 2 February 2008..."continuous heavy snowfall occurred over Central and Southern China...causing "1.7 million people to be displaced for periods ranging between a few days to a month," and affecting "critical infrastructure including electric power grids and communication systems," while "food production, forests, wildlife and buildings all suffered heavy damage..."...the four researchers "used weather records contained in Chinese historical documents from the past 500 years to search for ESEs [extreme snow events] that were comparable in severity,...they identified 25 additional ESEs that were "comparable to the extreme snow event in 2008 in terms of snowfall days, snow cover/icing days and snow depth," and a graph of their data indicates that all of the additional ESEs occurred during periods that were colder than the past decade...noting that their results reveal, as they describe it, "what we have learned from the past," which is that this particular extreme has become much less common than it was in colder times." [Zhixin Hao, Jingyun Zheng, Quansheng Ge, Wei-Chyung Wang 2011: Climate Research]
Conclusion: The green warmists that dominate the ranks of leftists / progressives / liberals / Democrats almost completely rely on promulgating urban myths regarding climate change, global warming and extreme weather events. Fortunately for the rest of the world, the preponderance of empirical evidence and peer reviewed research does not support the myths and legends.
For the global warming alarmist community, the inconvenient facts about droughts is that previous climate change produced more severe and longer lasting droughts
Read here. The historical evidence strongly supports that the severe climatic conditions of the Little Ice Age (pre-1850) produced extreme droughts that often affected Georgia and other locations of the Southeast U.S.
A new study of the U.S. Southeast confirms the known facts about droughts. Pederson et al. found that droughts during the end of the Little Ice Age were more severe and of longer duration than those of the 20th and 21st centuries. In essence, previous climate change, especially during cooler periods, produced more extreme climatic conditions in many parts of the world.
"A paper published today in Environmental Research Letters uses tree-ring proxies to reconstruct drought conditions of the American Southeast from 1665 to 2010. The authors find "The reconstruction shows that the recent droughts are not unprecedented over the last 346 years. Indeed, droughts of extended duration occurred more frequently between 1696 and 1820. Our results indicate that the era in which local and state water supply decisions were developed and the period of instrumental data upon which it is based are amongst the wettest since at least 1665." [N. Pederson, A. R. Bell, T. A. Knight, C. Leland, N. Malcomb, K. J. Anchukaitis, K. Tackett, J. Scheff, A. Brice, B. Catron, W. Blozan, J. Riddle 2012: Environmental Research Letters]
Conclusion: The empirical, inconvenient facts about droughts is that they have been found to be more frequent and more severe during cooler climate change regimes.
The disgraced climate science-fraud Peter Gleick of 'Fakegate' fame is not alone in the realm of climate science malfeasance - indeed, the lies of disaster alarmism persist as insurance companies and NOAA are still pushing climate change fraud
Read here. One of the world's foremost experts takes the large insurance companies and NOAA to task for brazenly misleading the public and policymakers about global disaster trends.
If there was ever a definitive indicator that science fraud is being perpetrated, the collaboration of big insurance companies and government bureaucrats has to be the best-of-breed known.
"NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco and NCDC head Tom Karl write in Physics Today about the 14 "billion dollar disasters" tabulated by NOAA for 2011 and ask "Why did we see such expensive damage last year?" Their answer, predictably, includes "climate change" and is followed by a lengthy exposition on why NOAA needs more money.
Reality Check: Lubchenco and Karl somehow failed to note that NOAA and NCDC have cautioned against drawing any such conclusions from the "billion dollar disasters." And even though Lubchenco and Karl cite the recent IPCC Special Report on Extreme Events, they also somehow forgot to mention this part: "Long-term trends in economic disaster losses adjusted for wealth and population increases have not been attributed to climate change, but a role for climate change has not been excluded." Deceiving."
Summary: Despite the well publicized fraud and deception of the amazing Fakegate climate science, major business and government officials continue pushing climate change fraud even when the known empirical evidence refutes their climate change claims.
'Fakegate' has reminded the public of the prevalent fraud and deception perpetrated by global warming alarmism - the IPCC's hurricane "science" is one such example
Read here(h/t Bishop Hill). The 'Fakegate' style of science perpetrated by Peter Gleick is alive and well within the IPCC, where all bureaucrat scientists seemingly channel the 'Peter Gleick' methodology. This methodology primarily embraces the politician's mindset of elections: say-and-do-anything to get elected, including lying, sprinkled liberally with criminal fraud and unethical activities when required.
Unfortunately for the public and policymakers, this 'Peter Gleick' style of climate science is evident in the global warming alarmism claims made by the IPCC, including those about hurricanes. This is the latest expert analysis on IPCC hurricane "science":
"More trouble looms for the IPCC. The body may need to revise statements made in its Fourth Assessment Report on hurricanes and global warming. A statistical analysis of the raw data shows that the claims that global hurricane activity has increased cannot be supported...tests six IPCC statements against raw data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) Administration..."When you average the number of storms and their strength, it almost exactly balances." This isn't indicative of an increase in atmospheric energy manifesting itself in storms...The IPCC continues: "It is more likely than not (> 50%) that there has been some human contribution to the increases in hurricane intensity." But, as Hatton points out, that conclusion comes from computer climate models, not from the observational data, which show no increase..."The IPCC goes on to make statements that would never pass peer review,"..."
And btw, Kevin Trenberth, the major IPCC climate scientist, and also co-author with the notorious Peter Gleick, is the principal player behind the global warming alarmism "science" of hurricanes.
"The IPCC's AR4 chapter lead was Kevin Trenberth, who features prominently in the Climategate emails. In 2005, the National Hurricane Center's chief scientist Chris Landsea resigned his post in protest at the treatment of the subject by Trenberth..."I personally cannot in good faith continue to contribute to a process that I view as both being motivated by pre-conceived agendas and being scientifically unsound. As the IPCC leadership has seen no wrong in Dr. Trenberth’s actions and have retained him as a Lead Author for the AR4, I have decided to no longer participate in the IPCC AR4."
Hmmm...maybe Trenberth's personna of climate science incompetence is instead an actual embracement of the 'Peter Gleick' methodology, no?
The professional green CAGW alarmists predicted that global warming would bring climate change to Sierra Mtns. in the form of decreased snowfall levels - empirical evidence proves prediction to be without merit
(click on image to enlarge)
Read here. Another 'Big Green' climate change prediction. Another climate change prediction fail.
As the adjacent chart shows, the snowfall trend for the California Sierra region has not been impacted by human CO2 emissions or the modern global warming since the late 1800's.
"The analysis of snowfall data from as far back as 1878 found no long-term trend in how much snow falls in the state, especially in the critical western slope of the Sierra Nevada mountains...There isn’t a trend significantly different from zero for the whole period,...just the past 50 years and there is no trend over this recent stretch either."..."Monthly snowfall totals from over 500 stations in California, some of which date back to 1878, are examined. Most data were accessed through the NOAA archive...For those regions characterized by consistent monitoring and with the most robust statistical reproducibility, we find no statistically significant trends in their periods-of-record (up to 133 years) nor in the most recent 50 years. This result encompasses the main snowfall region of the western slope of the Sierra Nevada Mountains." [John R. Christy 2012: Journal of Hydrometeorology]
The IPCC & Climategate scientist Kenneth Trenberth long predicted that anthropogenic global warming would increase tropical cyclone landfalls - their prediction was wrong
Read here. The AGW alarmist scientists of the IPCC (including the world's most incompetent climate scientist) have for many years predicted that CO2-induced global warming would cause a severe increase in tropical cyclone frequency and strength. These ferocious storms would thus result in wreaking havoc on coastal areas worldwide, unless human CO2 emission growth was stopped - per the IPCC.
As with almost every single climate change catastrophic prediction that the IPCC has fantasized about, empirical research proves the increased cyclone / hurricane landfall prediction to be meritless. The actual scientific evidence is both unequivocal and irrefutable: the modern global warming has not produced a greater number of destructive tropical cyclones making landfall. (click on above peer reviewed chart to enlarge - evidence of failed prediction)
"Using currently available historical TC best-track records, we have constructed a global database focused on hurricane-force strength landfalls. Our analysis does not indicate significant long-period global or individual basin trends in the frequency or intensity of landfalling TCs of minor or major hurricane strength. This evidence provides strong support for the conclusion that increasing damage around the world during the past several decades can be explained entirely by increasing wealth in locations prone to TC landfalls..." [Jessica Weinkle, Ryan Maue and Roger Pielke, Jr. 2012: Journal of Climate]
As the majority of empirical-based scientists are now discovering, the IPCC's global warming catastrophic predictions have been terribly wrong - the failed prediction of an increase of severe windstorms is newest example
Read here. The IPCC, its climate models and its Climategate scientists have become infamous for flat-out, dreadful, incorrect climate predictions. A prominent prediction of an increase in severe weather due to global warming (ie, climate change) was made long ago, yet all the empirical research keeps confirming the lack of an increase. (click on image for more info)
The latest research on severe windstorms in the U.S. is another example of the incompetence of the IPCC's climate models and its "consensus experts."
"The author notes that high winds - excluding those associated with hurricanes, tornadoes, snowstorms, blizzards and heavy rainstorms - are one of the United States' leading types of damage-producing storms. These straight-line windstorms, as they are called, produce annual U.S. property and crop losses...Changnon describes how a number of adjustments to loss data of the past needed to be made "to calculate a revised monetary loss value for each catastrophe so as to make it comparable to current year values, 2006 in this study." And when these adjustments were made, he reports that the 55-year time trend "was not up or down."...study's finding that "the national temporal distribution of catastrophic windstorms during 1952-2006 has a flat trend,"..." [Stanley Changnon, 2011: Natural Hazards]
Kevin Trenberth, an IPCC climate "scientist", is widely known for both his aggressive smearing of his science critics and his dog-awful climate predictions.
Like a beggar-person addicted to alcohol, Trenberth seems to say and predict any CAGW outcomes to assure a continual flow of government research monies, including the prediction that global warming will cause frequent extreme precipitation events. Like many of his global warming climate predictions, he was wrong.
Climate researchers Dravitzki and McGregor analyzed precipitation events for the northern region of New Zealand and could find no evidence of what-in-the-hell Trenberth was talking about - another major prediction fail per the peer reviewed empirical data.
"Working with data from 18 meteorological observation stations located in and about the Waikato region...developed daily precipitation time series covering the period 1900-2007, where they averaged the precipitation values..."since 1900 there have been no significant variations in the total annual precipitation nor in the occurrence or magnitude of extreme precipitation events," and they say that these events "...write that "the consistency of the precipitation totals suggests that the current economically important water supply is secure within the region." And we would add that their finding of no evidence for the projections of Trenberth and the IPCC over a 107-year period -- when climate alarmists claim the world warmed at a rate and to a level of warmth that were unprecedented over the past millennium or more - suggests that the projections of Trenberth and the IPCC are not what they are cracked up to be..." [Stacey Dravitzki, James McGregor 2011: International Journal of Climatology]
Often climate models are utilized for specific regional climate forecasts - scientists determine that for regional snowfalls, the models are worthless
Read here. It is well established that climate models have been atrocious at predicting global warming and other climate attributes. This lack of predictive skill globally is compounded when these models attempt to make regional predictions such as snowfall in a specific region.
EU scientists, Soncini and Bocchiola, analyzed snowfall predictions by two major climate models for the Italian Alps region. The models did not perform as advertised.
"The authors write that "General Circulation Models (GCMs) are widely adopted tools to achieve future climate projections." They note, however, that "one needs to assess their accuracy, which is only possible by comparison of GCMs' control runs against past observed data,"...investigated the accuracy of simulations of snowfall throughout the Italian Alps that were provided by two GCMs...included within the family of models employed by the IPCC. This was done by comparing the models' output with a set of comprehensive ground data obtained from some 400 snow-gauging stations located within the region of interest for the period 1990-2009...determined that "the investigated GCMs provide poor depiction of the snowfall timing and amount upon the Italian Alps," noting, in fact, that the HadCM3 model actually "displays considerable snowfall during summer," which they indicate "is clearly not supported by ground data"..."given the poor depiction of snowfall by the GCMs here tested, we suggest that care should be taken when using their outputs for predictive purposes."" [A. Soncini, D. Bocchiola 2011: Cold Regions Science and Technology]
The IPCC and other global warming alarmists predicted that the frequency of extreme hurricanes would increase because of CO2-induced global warming. At least that's what their theory told them.
Recently, climate researchers analyzed a large Florida sinkhole that had hurricane evidence going back some 4,500 years. This new empirical evidence now establishes that super hurricane frequency was much greater thousands of years ago, and that the modern era has experienced far fewer of these monster storms despite human CO2 and warming.
"Lane et al. developed a 4500-year record of intense hurricane-induced storm surges based on data obtained from "a nearly circular, 200-m-diameter cover-collapse sinkhole...reconstructed record of intense hurricanes revealed that the frequency of these "high-magnitude" events "peaked near 6 storms per century between 2800 and 2300 years ago." Thereafter, it suggests that they were "relatively rare" with "about 0-3 storms per century occurring between 1900 and 1600 years ago," after which they state that these super-storms exhibited a marked decline, which "began around 600 years ago" and has persisted through the present with "below average frequency over the last 150 years when compared to the preceding five millennia."" [Philip Lane, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, Jonathan D. Woodruff, Andrea D. Hawkes 2011: Marine Geology]
As this updated climate map reveals, the severe drought condition for Australia during 2011 was essentially non-existent. The IPCC-based climate science predicted more frequent and intense droughts, which has not been the case.
Due to the incredibly bad reporting by the mainstream press, many Americans believe the U.S. suffers from "accelerated warming" and increasing severe weather - neither are true
First, as the adjacent chart reveals, U.S. temperatures are not "accelerating." The red curve is the 12-month moving average (since 1895), which clearly shows no acceleration, and shows zero relationship to the growing levels of atmospheric CO2 levels (black dots).
As can be seen, U.S. monthly temperatures have a wide variation (the blue up/down plot) in any given year, fluctuating between low and high extremes.
Again, no "accelerating" warming trend is evident from the actual temperature empirical evidence. (click on charts to enlarge)
Read here. This second chart plots the total number of severe tornadoes (F2, F3, F4 & F5) in decade groups (the 2000's include 2011). This actual empirical evidence substantiates that severe weather events, as represented by extreme tornadoes, are not increasing in the U.S.
Conclusion: The mainstream press (eg., NYT, WaPo, Time, CBS, NBC, LA Times, etc.) willfully and unequivocally reports misinformation regarding severe weather and global warming. They do so to purposefully mislead the public and policymakers regarding global warming and climate change.
The UN's Climategate scientists and bureaucrats continue pushing the "severe weather" lies at Durban IPCC climate conference
Since time immemorial, humans have been talking about how bad the weather has been over the 'past year' or over the 'past growing season.' This uniquely human trait is often exhibited throughout the ancient text of the Bible. Yet the corrupt United Nations and its Climategate perpetrators continue to claim that recent bad weather is actually only due to "global warming" and human CO2 emissions.
Unfortunately for the UN 'liars of Durban,' the world's previous severe weather incidents includes a gigantic list of bad weather events happening well before dangerous CO2 levels.
In addition, the immense preponderance of modern climate peer-reviewed studies can find no connection between human CO2 emissions and modern severe weather.
And now, adding further empirical evidence misery to the UN's Climategate liars' claims, comes this startling factoid: severe hurricane landfalls in the U.S. have plummeted over the last 6 years!
Combine these type of actual facts with the recent extreme weather science report that is being suppressed at Durban ("Uncertainty in the sign of projected changes in climate extremes over the coming two to three decades is relatively large because climate change signals are expected to be relatively small compared to natural climate variability"), and it is no wonder that public and policymaker support for global warming and climate change policies has crumbled over the last few years - bureaucracy lies and science corruption usually have that sort of outcome, thankfully.
The absurdity of "consensus" climate change science and global warming alarmism on display, again
Read here. As the 2011 hurricane season comes to a close, there has yet to be a direct major hurricane strike on the U.S. since 2005 (note: Hurricane Irene in 2011 became Tropical Storm Irene before striking the continental U.S.).
The anti-science left/liberal/progressives and the IPCC Climategate alarmists have long predicted that CO2-induced global warming will cause more frequent and more severe hurricane strikes on America's Atlantic coast. These AGW hurricanes would then cause massive economic damage and carnage resulting in climate refugees fleeing the coast.
In a nutshell, this is the pathetic and hysterical climate "science" that the left embraces and promulgates, without any supporting empirical evidence (image source), or now, even a credible theory.
A team of NOAA researchers has recently completed a new analysis and have now conceived a new "consensus" science: global warming will cause less storms to strike the U.S.
Wang et al. analyzed the Atlantic Warming Pool (AWP) history and determined that when it was warmer and larger, the AWP birthed hurricanes that were farther from U.S. shores and less likely to strike the Atlantic coasts. Ergo, global warming may indeed cause larger storms but they would dissipate over open waters before reaching U.S.
"For this investigation, Wang and colleagues divided the observed history of Atlantic tropical cyclones (since 1970) into years with large AWPs and those with small AWPs and then tallied up within each division storm characteristics such as number and tracking tendency. What they found was that large AWPs were associated with more storms, but—and this is important—storms which preferentially stayed off-shore and did not make landfall along the U.S. coast. In other words, the hurricanes which formed became less menacing...as the AWP increased in size it made conditions more favorable for tropical cyclone formation and growth further out in the Atlantic Ocean. And at the same time, it altered the atmospheric circulation patterns over the central Atlantic Ocean such that the storms which did form were steered more northward into the open Atlantic and away from the U.S. mainland." [Chunzai Wang, Hailong Liu, Sang-Ki Lee, Robert Atlas 2011: Geophysical Research Letters]
Read here. Kevin Trenberth, a prominent IPCC "expert" deeply involved in the Climategate scandal, has long promulgated the IPCC prediction that CO2-induced global warming will cause an increase in tropical cyclones/hurricanes. Trenberth even doubles-down by stating that all modern severe weather events are the result of "unequivocal" global warming. Unfortunately for Trenberth and the IPCC, the overwhelming, unequivocally growing evidence documents well that cyclones/hurricanes have not increased as predicted.
First, as all know to be the case (click on adjacent image to enlarge), Trenberth is truth-challenged in public regarding the supposed "unequivocal" global warming claim (he sings a mightily different tune in private conversations). As the IPCC's gold-standard HadCRUT empirical evidence shows, accelerated global warming has disappeared over the last 15 years.
This evidence is irrefutable, yet Trenberth continues to claim global warming is "unequivocal" despite other climate alarmists giving up the ghost of AGW and are now producing research trying to explain the disappearance of global warming. (One would guess that this disturbing and consistent lack of stating the fundamental climate truth by Trenberth has to be a pathological disorder of some kind.)
Now in addition to the amazing disregard of actual global temperatures, a new study by Ying et al. determines that the empirical evidence proves that the China region has not experienced an increase of tropical cyclones over the last 50 years, which corroborates the vast majority of studies on this subject, globally. Thus, Ternberth's beliefs and predictions are again eviscerated by the cruel empirical scientific process - and the same holds true for the IPCC as well.
"The authors write that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001, 2007) has twice suggested that "precipitation and extreme winds associated with tropical cyclones may have become more intense." However, they note that this dual claim is "mainly based on numerical models,"...Working with tropical cyclone (TC) best track and related observational severe wind and precipitation datasets created by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration...report that over the past half-century there have been no changes in the frequency of TC occurrence...they say that "during the past 50 years, there have been no significant trends in the days of TC...that "the seasonal rhythm of the TC influence on China also has not changed."...found that "the maximum sustained winds of TCs affecting the whole of China and all sub-regions have decreasing trends."...state that "the trends of extreme storm precipitation and 1-hour precipitation were all insignificant."" [Ming Ying, YuHua Yang, BaoDe Chen, Wei Zhang 2011: Science China Earth Sciences]
Read here. The Climategate scientists of the IPCC predicted that modern global warming would cause an increase of severe floods, as did the IPCC climate models. But when the science is objectively analyzed and the empirical evidence crunched, this prediction fails as so many before it.
Researchers Hirsch and Ryberg examine the U.S. evidence from a period of 85 to 127 years and conclude there is no significant relationship between the growth of atmospheric CO2 levels (that causes modern AGW) and annual floods.
"...shows that flooding has not increased in the United States over records of 85 to 127 years. This adds to a pile of research that shows similar results around the world. This result is of course consistent with our work that shows that increasing damage related to weather extremes can be entirely explained by societal changes, such as more property in harm's way. In fact, in the US flood damage has decreased dramatically as a fraction of GDP, which is exactly whet you get if GDP goes up and flooding does not." [R. M. Hirsch, K. R. Ryberg 2011: Hydrological Sciences Journal]
Read here. The climate alarmism bozos/bimbos brigade (Al Gore, Kevin Trenberth, John Cook, Joe Romm, Heidi Cullen, Bill McKibben, Michael Mann, Bill Nye, Jeff Masters and etc.) has claimed that past severe winter conditions were the result of CO2-induced global warming. They did so without a sliver of scientific proof nor empirical evidence.
As the general public deduced, the brigade's claim that extreme winter conditions are being caused by "global warming" is a complete crock. And to the major chagrin of the likes of Kevin Trenberth, the climate modelers are now pointing their collective fingers at the real culprit - the sun. Losing the public and climate/solar science debate both - Ouch!
The team of Ineson et al. determined that a strong solar signal (positive or negative) will cause significant changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation. The NAO change produces affects on the winter circulation patterns resulting in a dearth or abundance of Northern Hemisphere severe winter storms. Using climate models, they established a firm relationship between solar maximum/minimum and the change in the NAO.
"A research team...primarily made up of scientists from the U.K.’s Hadley Centre Met Office have identified a fairly strong solar signal in Northern Hemisphere winter circulation patterns which are manifest over Europe and the eastern United States. According to their modeling studies, the difference in the amount of incoming solar radiation, in this case, primarily in the ultraviolet (UV) wavelengths, during the minima and maxima of the 11-yr solar cycle are large enough to produce a characteristic change in the winter circulation pattern of the atmosphere over North America...When the NAO is in its negative phase, more cold air can seep south from the Arctic and impact the lower latitudes of Europe and the eastern U.S., which helps spin up winter storm systems. For instance, during the “snowmageddon” winter of 2009/2010, the NAO was at a near record low value..."Given our modelling result, these cold winters were probably exacerbated by the recent prolonged and anomalously low solar minimum. On decadal timescales the increase in the NAO from the 1960s to 1990s…may also be partly explained by the upwards trend in solar activity evident in the open solar-flux record…."" [Sarah Ineson, Adam A. Scaife, Jeff R. Knight, James C. Manners, Nick J. Dunstone, Lesley J. Gray, Joanna D. Haigh 2011: Nature Geoscience]
Read here. The climate predictions of the IPCC, its climate models and "experts," such as Al Gore, Kevin Trenberth, John Cook, Joe Romm, Heidi Cullen, Bill McKibben, Michael Mann, Bill Nye and Jeff Masters have been robustly abysmal. As the world struggles with unprecedented and severe financial and economic disasters, the shrill, self-centered, non-scientific incompetence of climate science alarmism continues to be shouted by egotistical personalities regardless of the scientific evidence.
These deniers/liars of past extreme climate change are the same ones whom have long predicted that human CO2-induced global warming would cause more severe tropical cyclones and hurricanes. Fortunately for the rest of us, these deniers/liars have been spectacularly wrong, as the latest peer-reviewed study makes clear.
Researchers used a new updated database of cyclone activity for the Australian region and determined that eastern Australia has experienced a 62% decline in severe cyclone strikes since the 1870's. All alarmists and IPCC computer predicted the opposite.
"The authors note that several studies have raised concerns that tropical cyclones, or TCs -- and especially the severe ones -- "have become more frequent in many places in response to global warming," citing Emanuel (2005) and Webster et al. (2005). In addition, Callaghan and Power write that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, highlights several studies that conclude that "tropical cyclones are likely to become more intense in the future in response to global warming," citing Alley et al. (2007)...developed and used "a new data base of severe land-falling TCs for eastern Australia derived from numerous historical sources, that has taken over a decade to develop."...new data base allows them "to document changes over much longer periods than has been done previously for the Southern Hemisphere,"...they report that "the sign and magnitude of trends calculated over 30 years periods vary substantially," highlighting the fact that "caution needs to be taken in making inferences based on e.g. satellite era data only." And second, they report that "the linear trend in the number of severe TCs making land-fall over eastern Australia declined from about 0.45 TC/year in the early 1870s to about 0.17 TC/year in recent times -- a 62% decline."" [Jeff Callaghan, Scott B. Power 2011: Climate Dynamics]
Read here. Fanatical global warming alarmists, such as Al Gore, have aggressively publicized extreme green/left/liberal catastrophic scenarios over the past decade. These predicted catastrophic scenarios are then widely disseminated, and popularized, by the mainstream media and Hollywood in an attempt to bias both policymakers and the public.
Unfortunately for the likes of Al Gore and the MSM, the predicted catastrophic scenarios, such as an increased frequency of severe hurricanes and cyclones, keep proving to be nothing more than wild, exaggerated speculation.
A comprehensive review of the world's best, recently published peer reviewed research, by scientist Jonathon Nott, determined the Al Gore/IPCC's Climategate science speculation that global warming would cause an increase of catastrophic hurricanes and cyclones is not supported by any empirical evidence. Ergo, the green alarmist prediction of increased CO2 emissions causing more hurricanes from global warming is baseless.
"...the Australian researcher reports that "recent analyses of corrected historical TC records suggest that there are no definitive trends towards an increase in the frequency of high-intensity TCs for the Atlantic Ocean region (Knutson et al., 2010), the northwest Pacific (Chan, 2006; Kossin et al., 2007) and the Australian region, South Pacific and south Indian oceans (Kuleshov et al., 2010)." He notes, however, that "over multi-century to millennial timescales, substantial change has occurred in virtually all TC-generating regions of the globe," with "alternating periods of lesser and greater activity," writing that "the longer, coarser-resolution records display periods from multi-century to over a millennium in length, whereas the higher-resolution records register multi-decadal to centennial-length periodicities." In some of these cases, Nott says that (1) "different climate states, such as periods dominated by El Niños and La Niñas, appear to be responsible for the TC variability." In other cases, he says the responsible factor seems to be (2) shifts in the position of the jet stream, (3) solar variability, or (4) some unknown cause." [Jonathon Nott 2011: Journal ofQuaternary Science]
Read here. After last week's spectacularly lame, 24-hour Gore "climate reality" circus, now comes new research that just mocks the hysterical Gore-science spewed out last week.
The IPCC climate models, and Nobel 'Gore-science,' contend that severe weather has increased because of CO2-induced global warming. Li et al. chose to investigate this prediction and researched severe weather events for the Perth, Australia region. They discovered no trend in severe weather frequency, which contradicts the IPCC/Gore prediction.
"Citing "unprecedented public concern" with respect to the impacts of climate change, Li et al. (2011) set out to examine the variability and trends of storminess for the region of the Perth metropolitan coast of Australia. To do so, they conducted an extensive set of analyses using observations of wave, wind, air pressure, and water level over the period 1994-2008. The results of their analysis, in their view, should serve "to validate or invalidate the climate change hypothesis" that rising CO2 concentrations are increasing the frequency and severity of storms...all storm indices showed significant interannual variability over the period of record, but "no evidence of increasing (decreasing) trends in extreme storm power was identified to validate the wave climate change hypotheses for the Perth region." [Fangjun Li, Lucya Roncevich, Charlie Bicknell, Reena Lowry, and Karl Ilich 2011: Journal of Coastal Research]
The IPCC, and publicity oriented propaganda-scientists, such as Al Gore and Kevin Trenberth, should be muzzled by the scientific community as they both continue to do significant and robust damage to the reputation and credibility of science in general.
The Al Gore climate propaganda machine will be in full swing for 24 hours starting September 14. His objective is to convince people that recent severe weather events are a result of global warming and climate change, supposedly caused by human CO2 emissions.
Unfortunately for Al Gore and his warming fundamentalist followers, severe weather events happen regardless of human CO2. The extreme weather events of the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s provide ample evidence that the higher levels of 2011 atmospheric CO2 are irrelevant.
Below is a list of severe weather incidents (and other items of interest) that took place during the 50s, 60s and 70s. These terrible and destructive events occurred well before the current decade's hysteria about CO2 emissions. These events represent empirical evidence (reality) that refutes Al Gore's type of climate science.
The expanded severe weather list can be found here.