Climate Change Disasters: List of 1958-1959 Destructive, Extreme Weather Events Prior To 350 PPM

There no longer is any serious debate of the non-existence of dangerous, accelerating global warming from human CO2 emissions - literally, from all current climate empirical evidence, it does not exist.

Despite many climate scientists now being forced to reconsider their runaway "tipping point" AGW hypothesis of high climate sensitivity, and the U.S. public placing a theoretical climate change as a very low priority, there remain those political elites and mainstream "journalists" bitterly clinging to their blatantly incorrect, non-scientific, irrational (insane?) fears of "scary" global warming.

In the scientific real world though, there is an abundance of peer reviewed, solid scientific evidence pointing conclusively to a future of both moderate temperature and climate change.

Conclusions:

As the above chart reveals, atmospheric CO2 levels have constantly increased since 1990 - see recent CO2 charts here.

In contrast, the IPCC's gold-standard global dataset (above chart) confirms temperatures have stalled since 1998 - actually, they have slightly cooled at a -0.08 degrees/century trend.

The chart's solid blue curve is a simple three year moving average of non-scary global temperature change that current political elites conveniently ignores and the MSM refuses to report.

Current global temperatures are significantly below NASA's climate model and "expert" predictions - note the dotted red line on chart.

All the major climate agency computer models, based on human CO2 emissions, have failed spectacularly.

Modern weather disasters (e.g., blizzards, tropical storms, etc.) portrayed by political elites and MSM "reporters" as caused by "climate change" are the exactly the same bad weather disasters that took place during earlier periods of low atmospheric CO2.

Additional modern temperature charts.

February 12, 2013 at 06:30 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Extreme Climate Change Events: Early 1950's

wikipedia.com

Unlike the 1950's, when a severe weather event was just called 'bad weather,' now days these events are identified as climate change or climate disruption, caused by humans. Every new hurricane, blizzard, flood and forest fire is quickly labeled as the new normal, which infers a similar event/disaster must never have happened before.

Unfortunately, for the climate ignorant, the 1950's were not an era of stable climate conditions and unchanging temperatures. Although the black & white TV entertainment was fairly simple back then, that period's climate and weather were just as complex...and deadly... as our current 21st century variety.

Below is a list of early 1950's "climate change" events and disasters that were originally identified as bad weather; and, interestingly, climate issues the previous generation of scientists were worried about at that time. A simple review of this list provokes, justifiably, a common sense climate-epiphany: my god, it's the same old, same old.

1950: "Climate Change - World Is Warming"

1950: No Snow In New England Region Devastates Winter Recreation Business

1950: European Countries Finance Antarctica Research To Investigate Warming Earth

1950: Strange Atmospheric Events Affect World's Weather

1950: Hurricane Sweeps Along New England Coast - 60 MPH Winds, Mountainous Waves

1950: 1,000 Villages In Pakistan Destroyed By Flooding

1950: Cold Wind And Dust Storm Sweep Over Bombay, India

1950: Record Rain In Queensland, Australia

1950: Minnesota, N. Dakota & Nebraska Regions Swamped By Flooding

1950: Wild Bushfires Scorch 60 Square Miles of Colorado

1950: Pine Beetle Population In Idaho Forests "Building Up To Alarming Proportions"

1950: Floods In Brazil & Ecuador Take 150 Lives - Train Plunges Off Washed-Out Bridge

1950: Oregon Heat Wave Breaks Temperature Records

1950: Oklahoma's Dust Bowl Region Struck By New Drought

1950: Nine Die In Midwest Dust Storm

1950: 3rd Dust Storm This Year Strikes Wheat States

1950: Scientists Say Earth Warming And Glaciers Melting

1950: Great Appalachian Storm Wreaks Havoc On 22 States - Massive Rainfalls and Blizzard

1950: Eroding Beaches In Australia Due to Rapid Sea Level Rises

1950: Rapid Warming In Greenland - Sea Temperatures Up By Several Degrees

1950: Six Nations Send Scientists To Arctic To Investigate Glacier & Ice Cap Melting

1950: Scientist Says Sidney, Australia Climate Getting Hotter

1950: "The World's Weather Is Just Crazy"

1951: "Glaciers, Icebergs melt as world gets warmer"

1951: Slow Moving Blizzard Leaves Iowa City With 27" of Snow

1951: MIT Scientist Correctly Predicts Global Cooling – Based On Sunspots, Not CO2

1951: Bone-Dry Texas Swelters From Heat Wave

1951: Bakersfield, California Life Halted Due To Blinding Dust Storm

1951: Warming of Greenland & Melting Exposes Medieval Farm-Homes Buried Under Ice For Centuries

1951: Hurricane Level Winds Lash America's Midwest - Flash Floods, Snow & Heat Wave!

1951: Kansas River Flood Displaces Over 500,000

1951: Mississippi River Reaches Highest Level For 107 Years

1951: Floods, Drought Ravage China Over 3-Month Period

1951: Fierce Hailstorm & 40 MPH Winds Wreck Apple Crop In Australia

1951: Kansas City Crippled by Missouri River Flood Waters, St. Louis Next

1951: Mount Lamington Eruption Causes 3,000 Deaths

1951: Hurricane Charlie Blasts Jamaica - 150 Dead

1951: Philippines Loses 541 Lives To Typhoon

1951: 100 Degree Heat Wave Lasts For 7 Weeks In Texas

1951: Eastern Airlines Pilot Runs Into A Sahara Dust Storm 700 Miles From U.S. Coast

1952: March 23 - Hundreds Killed In Southern Tornadoes – Flooding On Lake Erie – Blizzard On the Plains

1952: "Worst Ever Seen" Dust Storm Covers The Columbia Basin In State of Washington

1952: Previously Submerged Town Behind Grand Coulee Dam Has Dust Storm

1952: Exodous Begins - Imminent Starvation Due To Drought Facing Mexican Families

1952: Missouri River "Savagery" Causes Massive Flooding In Iowa

1952: Mississippi River Floods - Record Crests In Minnesota & Wisconsin

1952: Norweigan & Alaskan Glaciers Shrunk 50% Since 1902 Says Scientist

1952: Arctic Scientist Says Polar Ice Cap Melting Threatens Australia's Seaports

1952: Many Species Migrate Northward In Northern Hemisphere Due To Warming World

1952: July Extended Heat Wave – 104 Degrees In Norway – 106 In Italy

1952: March Earthquake, Tsunami And Snowstorm Hits Japan

1952: Another Severe Drought In Australia

1952: North East India Floods Submerge 391 Villages

1952: Alaska really is getting warmer

1952: Yugoslavia's Agriculture Suffers From Repeated Drought

1952: Scientist Says Both Polar Ice Caps Melting At Alarming Rate

1952: Billowing Dust Storm Shrieks Across Southwest U.S.

1952: Massive Arctic Warming, Glaciers Lose Half Their Size, Seas Are Ice Free Most Of The Time

1952: Record Rain Pummels Texas After Record Drought

1953: Hurricane's Sea Floods Kill More Than 900 In Europe - Worst Since 15th Century

1953: UK Floods Kill 300, Farmlands Made Infertile From Salt Water

1953: Consensus Among Meterologists: The World Is Warming

1953: Scientists Say Antarctica Ice Melting Rapidly

1953: Australia's 'Atomic" Port Struck by Hurricane - Every Single Builing Damaged

1953: UK Tornado - 89 Deaths

1953: China's Authorities Report Severe Drought Impact

1953: Wisconsin Heat Wave Pales To Heat Wave They Had In 1936

1953: Choking Dust Storm Darkens Most of Texas

1953: Texas Drought Dust Falls In NY's Times Square

1953: Severe Drought - Texas & Oklahoma Declared Major Disaster Areas

1953: West German Drought Close To Drying Up An Important Water Reservoir

1953 Multiple May Tornadoes Pummel Waco, TX - 115 Die

1953: May Tornadoes Roar Through Georgia & Alabama - 24 Dead

1953: 3rd Huge Dust Storm In 10 Days Blasts America's Wheat Areas

1953: June Tornado Rampage Killed Hundreds In Massachusetts, Michigan, Ohio, Texas

1953: Drought Dries Up Rio Grande River, Missouri River Is Flooding Montana

1953: Heat Wave Blisters U.S. East of The Rockies

1953: Sweden Takes Steps To Stop Paratyphiod Epidemic

1954: 100 MPH Blizzard Winds Howl Across Nebraska

1954: Scientists Tell Congress That The Arctic Might Be Navigable By 1979

1954: Arctic Permafrost In Canada Melting - Natives Have To Be Moved

1954: Mainstream Media Reports That Past Was Much Warmer Than Current Temperatures

1954: Melting Himalayan Glacier Flooding - 200,000 Homeless

1954: North African Earthquake Followed By More Tremors - 1,340 Deaths In Algeria

1954: Longest Drought Grows To Four U.S. States

1954: Heat Wave In Illinois Registers 112 Degree Temperature - Highest Ever

1954: Dixie First Hit By Dust Storms Then Tornadoes

1954: Drought Turns To Floods In Texas

1954: Worst Floods of Century Devastate Areas of Nepal

1954: Hurricane Carol Stampedes Through New England - 49 Dead

1954: Hurricane Edna Blasts New England & Canada

1954: Hurricane Hazel Strikes Haiti, U.S. & Canada - At Least 1,000 Dead

1954: 8 Hurricanes Wreak Havoc On U.S. During 1954 - Worst Year On Record

1954: Record Heat Wave Brings Death, Destruction

1954: 18 Die In Airliner Crash Caused By Mexican Dust Storm

1954: "UK, Europe Have Worst Summer For Years"

1954: Radioactive Dust Storm Injures 23 Japanese Fishermen

1954: Climate Scientists Say Summers Getting Cooler & Wetter In Australia

1955: "Science Agrees! Our Weather Is Changing"

1955: Heavy snows strike France

1955: "Brisbane Facing Worst Flood In Its History"

1955: Northeast US Hit By The Worst Floods In History – Twice

1955: Iceland Hurricane & Snowstorm Sinks 2 Ships - 40 Men Lost

1955: Blizzard Kills 42 Across The U.S. Great Plains

1955: Long Island Sized Iceberg Breaks Off From Antarctica

1955: Muggy Heat Wave In America But Buenos Aires Has 1st Snowfall In 37 Years

1955: Heat Wave Brings Milwaukee Extreme Temperatures

1955: 51 Los Angeles Residents Die From Heat Wave

1955: Europeans Suffer From Long Heat Wave - 70 Die

1955: 25 Million Indians & Pakistanis Lose Their Homes To Floods

1955: 5-Year Drought Ends With Big Floods - Texas, Colorado & Oklahoma

Full severe weather list and charts.

February 11, 2013 at 01:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Multiple EU Scientific Studies Determine Modern Flooding Is Not Increasing - Floods From "Climate Change" Prove Bogus

Green-sharia scientists in the pay of Big-Green constantly promote the idea that recent floods are the result of human-caused global warming and climate change - yet all empirical evidence and objective research proves that modern flooding is not increasing in terms of frequency and size

(click on images - source)

During 2012, parts of Spain experienced devastating floods. This terrible weather event was immediately claimed as more proof that climate change, due to global warming, is causing extreme violent disasters.

But are these "climate change" claims accurate, based on the latest scientific research or just more green-sharia propaganda?

Per the 2012 peer reviewed Spanish research of Barredo et al., the following was determined:

"..."the absence of a significant positive trend in the adjusted insured flood losses in Spain," which suggests, in their words, that "the increasing trend in the original losses is explained by socio-economic factors, such as the increases in exposed insured properties, value of exposed assets and insurance penetration." And they add that "there is no residual signal that remains after adjusting for these factors," so that "the analysis rules out a discernible influence of anthropogenic climate change on insured losses," which they say "is consistent with the lack of a positive trend in hydrologic floods in Spain in the last 40 years." [J. I. Barredo, D. Saurí, M. C. Llasat 2012: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences]

Additional EU research that disproves the anti-CO2 propaganda of IPCC-related "scientists":

France - "...Wilhelm et al. (2012) say their study shows that "sediment sequences from high altitude lakes can provide reliable records of flood-frequency and intensity-patterns related to extreme precipitation events," closing with the warning that "such information is required to determine the possible impact of the current phase of global warming." And when this warning is heeded, it is clearly seen that the climate-model-inspired claim that global warming will lead to "an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of such events" - would appear to be just the opposite of what is suggested by Wilhelm et al.'s real-world study..."

Germany - "In light of these several observations -- plus the fact that "most decadal-scale climate-change impacts on flooding (Petrow and Merz, 2009) are small compared to historic peaks in flood occurrence (Mudelsee et al., 2006)" -- Bormann et al. (2011) conclude their report by stating that these significant facts "should be emphasized in the recent discussion on the effect of climate change on flooding." And if this is done, there is no other conclusion to be drawn but that the warming experienced in Germany over the past century has not led to unprecedented flooding throughout the country. In fact, it has not led to any increase in flooding."

United Kingdom - "As a result of this multifaceted endeavor, they (Macklin et al. (2005)) determined that "the majority of the largest and most widespread recorded floods in Great Britain [had] occurred during cool, moist periods," and that "comparison of the British Holocene palaeoflood series ... with climate reconstructions from tree-ring patterns of subfossil bog oaks in northwest Europe also suggests that a similar relationship between climate and flooding in Great Britain existed during the Holocene, with floods being more frequent and larger during relatively cold, wet periods."

"...they (Hannaford and Marsh (2008)) state that longer river flow records from five additional catchments they studied "provide little compelling evidence for long-term (>50 year) trends but show evidence of pronounced multi-decadal fluctuations." Lastly, they add that "in comparison with other indicators, there were fewer trends in flood magnitude," and that "trends in peaks-over-threshold frequency and extended-duration maxima at a gauging station were not necessarily associated with increasing annual maximum instantaneous flow."

Switzerland - "Reiterating the fact that "the findings of this study suggest that the frequency of extreme summer-autumn precipitation events (i.e. flood events) and the associated atmospheric pattern in the Eastern Swiss Alps was not enhanced during warmer (or drier) periods," Stewart et al. (2011) acknowledge that "evidence could not be found that summer-autumn floods would increase in the Eastern Swiss Alps in a warmer climate of the 21st century," in contrast to the projections of the regional climate models that have suggested otherwise."

Italy - "Diodato et al. (2008) undertook a detailed analysis of "the Calore River Basin (South Italy) erosive rainfall using data from 425-year-long series of both observations (1922-2004) and proxy-based reconstructions (1580-1921)." This work revealed pronounced inter-decadal variations...researchers write that "in recent years, climate change (generally assumed as synonymous with global warming) has become a global concern and is widely reported in the media." And with respect to the concern that both droughts and floods will become both more frequent and more severe as the planet warms, they say their study indicates that "climate in the Calore River Basin has been largely characterized by naturally occurring weather anomalies in past centuries (long before industrial CO2 emissions), not only in recent years," and that there has been a "relevant smoothing" of such events during the modern era."

Conclusions: Scientific charlatans associated with Big-Green organizations (or in the pay of) primarily rely on the real-world tragedies of severe weather events to push their anti-CO2, anti-job green agenda. Multiple EU studies disprove the green propaganda that climate change (i.e., global warming) is causing floods of greater frequency and size. The actual empirical evidence simply and clearly refutes the bogus green-sharia claims.

Additional severe-weather charts and listing of severe-weather events.

February 08, 2013 at 06:24 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Hurricane Sandy Is Not A Symptom Of Climate Change or Global Warming

The attempt to label Hurricane Sandy as an "unprecedented" event due to climate change and global warming from human CO2 emissions is simply without merit - comparing 'Sandy' and other recent hurricanes to those in the past establishes that this supposed "superstorm" is just one of many 'Category 1' storms

(click on image to enlarge)

Despite the massive flooding devastation delivered by Hurricane Sandy on the huge and dense NY/NJ metropolitan area, it is not some "unprecedented" storm event that the U.S. East Coast has suffered. Nor is it a result of "high" CO2 emissions from man-made activities.

As this chart depicts, over the last 10 years, the East Coast has been hammered by 7 hurricanes, including the 'Category 1' Hurricane Sandy.

But for the 10 years ending 1962, during a period of substantially less atmospheric CO2, the East Coast was struck 10 times by 'Category 1' and higher hurricanes. (Note the 'Category 3' hurricane that wreaked incredible havoc on Long Island during 1954.)

All of these past hurricanes plotted on the chart originated east of the U.S coast, out in the Atlantic, just like Hurricane Sandy. And many of them snaked their way up the East Coast and finally made landfall at higher latitudes, just like 'Sandy.'

Conclusion: When the weather facts are examined objectively, Hurricane Sandy was not an "unprecedented" nor a "superstorm" severe weather event. And higher CO2 levels do not cause more hurricanes or stonger hurricanes to make landfall along the East Coast. To blame "climate change" and "global warming" for a 'Category 1' hurricane during the normal hurricane season is utter nonsense.

Previous severe weather postings and charts.

November 03, 2012 at 09:01 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

NOAA Confirms Hurricane Sandy Was Not A Result Of Ocean Global Warming, nor CO2

The NCDC (an agency of NOAA) publishes global ocean temperature records, which confirm that global warming of the oceans did not cause Hurricane Sandy - in fact, their most recent temperature measurements reveal that ocean temperatures have actually remained flat over last 15 years (thru September 2012), while CO2 levels have increased

(click on images to enlarge)

The chart on the left is a plot of global ocean temperatures for the 15-year period (180 months) ending September 2012. Clearly, since late 1997, global warming of the oceans has not happened and thus can not be the cause of Hurricane Sandy. (Unfortunately, some incredibly dishonest politicians and pundits have actually stated that anthropogenic global warming was the cause.)

The plot on the right represents ocean temperatures for the 15-year period ending September 1997. This chart depicts a modest warming trend of ocean waters, including an increase of CO2 levels.

When comparing the two different 15-year time periods, the following can be ascertained:

CO2 levels for 15-year period ending Sept 2012: Increased by 30 ppm
- Ocean linear temperature trend equates to: +0.007 degree increase by year 2100
  - Polynomial trend and 3-year average indicate a cooling is in process
CO2 levels for the 15-year period ending Sept 1997: Increased by 22 ppm
- Ocean linear temperature trend equates to: +1.10 degree increase by year 2100
  - Polynomial trend and 3-year average confirmed a warming trend during this previous 15-year period

Conclusions: The growing increases of atmospheric CO2 levels have not caused a global warming of the oceans over the last 15 years. Global warming was not the cause of Hurricane Sandy, which was essentially a typical weather hurricane that naturally occurs.

Additional temperature & climate charts.

November 02, 2012 at 10:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)

Latest Report From NOAA Confirms U.S. Drought Is Not Extreme Climate Change

During 2012, the U.S. experienced a hot and dry summer with climate doomsday scientists and pundits claiming it was the most severe ever, and a sure sign of hhuman caused extreme climate change - ooops, wrong again, per NOAA

(click on image to enlarge, source)

A select group of climate scientists and weather experts are forever trying to explain each severe weather event as a result of global warming from human CO2 emissions. They, and the usual parade of fame-seeking climate doomsday activists, then state "this is what extreme climate change looks like."

Although 2012 has been a warm year in the U.S. (probably not the warmest based on accurate temperature measurements,though), the claim of the U.S. being in the most severe drought condition ever is blatantly wrong and purposefully deceiving.

The adjacent NOAA/NCDC images (as of August) are of current drought conditions versus the severe droughts of 1988 and 1934. Clearly, the 2012 drought is less severe and less widespread than the previous droughts.

Droughts in the U.S. are not unusual - in fact, almost every year there are bad drought conditions in some region of the U.S. The 2012 drought is no exception and remains well within the normal weather variation experienced before.

Indeed, both the U.S. and the rest of the world have well documented periods of very severe weather in the past that makes the bad weather of 2012 pale in comparison, and such is the case for the summer of 2012.

Conclusions: Any climate "scientist" or weather "expert" who claims that typical severe weather events are examples of human-caused extreme climate change is, simply stated, a liar. The most recent U.S. severe drought is likely not a result of extreme climate change, but instead typical weather variation that the U.S. experiences, which NOAA and the mainstream press have long documented.

Previous severe-weather and drought-flood-forest-fire postings. Severe weather and modern temperature charts.

September 11, 2012 at 05:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Extreme Climate Change: New Study Concludes That CO2 & Global Warming Had Zero Impact On Winter Storms Over Last 50 Years

Climate doomsday alarmists often fabricate extreme climate change scenarios that have no basis in reality - one such scenario is that global warming, from rising CO2 emissions, will make U.S. East Coast winter storms worse

(click image to enlarge, source)

Read here. The vast majority of climate disaster scenarios, which climate doomsday scientists and pundits predict, are never realized. The increasing intensity and frequency of severe storms is one such failed prediction.

The IPCC's political-agenda scientists, and most Hollywood celebrities concurred, that the supposed global warming from human CO2 emissions would produce more severe winter storms ('nor'easters') on the U.S. East Coast resulting in untold devastation and human misery.

Researchers decided to analyze the empirical evidence to determine if the Hollywood and IPCC "scientists" were correct. As this included chart reveals, over the last 55 years, there is no evidence that storm intensity increased despite the huge increase in CO2 Emissions.

"The authors write that "East Coast Winter Storms (ECWS), commonly known as nor'easters, are among the most severe weather phenomena to impact the Northeastern United States,"...defined an ECWS as an area of low pressure with a closed circulation, moving in a general south-southwest to north-northeast direction and containing winds greater than 10.3 m/sec during at least one 6-hour period,"... they calculated the speeds of all ECWS over the 55-year period 1951-2006...researchers report that "the speed of ECWS during their passage over or near the east coast of the United states varied substantially from storm to storm, month to month, and season to season." However,...over the entire time period of their study, Bernhardt and DeGaetano rightly declare "there was no clear trend in ECWS speed."" [Jase E. Bernhardt and Arthur T. DeGaetano 2012: Natural Hazards]

Conclusions: The long predicted extreme climate change from CO2 levels and global warming has not happened. There has not been an increase/decrease of East Coast severe winter storms that would indicate a noteworthy change in existing natural climate variation.

Additional severe-weather, failed-prediction and peer-reviewed postings. Miscellaneous severe-weather charts.

September 06, 2012 at 05:47 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

U.S. Scientists Confirm Human CO2 Emissions Are Not Causing A Surge In Heavy Precipitation Events

IPCC climate doomsday advocates predict all sorts of calamitous, extreme climate change events from human CO2 emissions that seemingly fail to materialize - the lack of increased heavy precipitation events across the U.S. is another one of those failed predictions

(image source)

Read here. Climate scientists again reviewed the empirical weather evidence to determine if there has been a surge of heavy precipitation events, as predicted by the IPCC and its climate models.

Per the IPCC and its climate doomsday acolytes, human CO2 emissions causes increased warming that causes greater water evaporation, which in turn will increase the frequency and volume of rainfall incidents. Obviously, the increase in heavy rainfall would then likely lead to an increase in flooding disaster incidents. The IPCC's climate models have been programmed to follow that assumption.

Yet when researchers actually check the climate model predictions against weather reality, the IPCC models are rarely correct. Mahajan et al. just determined that to be the case for the IPCC's heavy rainfall prediction.

"Noting that "extreme events of precipitation have a potential for impacting our social and economic activities,"...state that it is "essential to determine if there has been a systematic change in the extremes over the past years and what awaits us in the future owing to global warming," especially in light of the fact that "climate model projection studies suggest that intense precipitation would be on the rise as global temperatures increase due to increased greenhouse gas forcings in the future..."trends in monthly heavy precipitation, defined by a return period of one year, are assessed for statistical significance in observations and Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations over the contiguous United States...report that trends estimated from the two data sources they employed "straddle the margin of statistical significance, and hence a definitive answer to the question of increasing trend of heavy precipitation over the US cannot be arrived at by looking at observational data." And with nearly half (9 out of 20) of the GCMs employed in their study predicting trends that are "significantly different from the observations," they are forced to conclude that "the GCMs are not yet fully capable of simulating extremes of precipitation at a regional level,"" [Salil Mahajan, Gerald R. North, R. Saravanan, Marc G. Genton 2012: Climate Dynamics]

Conclusion: Human CO2 emissions, and the supposed global warming, are not causing an increase in heavy precipitation events across the U.S. as predicted. The IPCC's climate models again fail a crucial test when their output is compared to actual weather reality.

Additional severe-weather, failed-prediction and peer-reviewed postings. Severe-weather and modern temperature charts. A lengthy list of severe-weather events.

September 02, 2012 at 06:07 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Climate Models Predicted An Increase In Severe Precipitation Events: IPCC Wrong Again On Extreme Climate Change

New study confirms that IPCC's climate doomsday predictions regarding extreme climate change and severe precipitation events have failed

(image source)

Read here. The vast majority of scientific research using actual climate evidence continues to disprove the doomsday predictions of the IPCC's climate modelers. The hypothesized catastrophic climate disasters that would be considered outside normal climate variation are just not happening.

The latest study confirming the failed predictions of the IPCC was completed by Tramblay et al. regarding extreme rainfall incidents in Morocco.

"Morocco is a North African country highly vulnerable to extreme precipitation events. In the present study, past trends in extreme precipitation and future projections using an ensemble of regional climate models (RCM) are evaluated." [Yves Tramblay, Wafae Badi, Fatima Driouech, Salaheddine El Adlouni, Luc Neppel, Eric Servat 2012: Global and Planetary Change]

"The authors write that "climate change is likely to produce more extreme precipitation events,"...they say that "for the Mediterranean basin, several studies indicate a possible amplification of precipitation extremes associated with a decrease of precipitation totals...which "could lead to an increased probability of occurrence of events inducing both floods and droughts"...employed data for ten measuring stations - Casablanca, Rabat, Larache and Tanger (Atlantic coast), Tetouan, Al Hoceima, Nador and Oujda (Mediterranean region), and Fes and Ifrane (Atlas mountainous area) - which they carefully analyzed for signs of the predicted precipitation-related phenomena..."Quoting the six scientists who performed the work, "the Mann-Kendall test indicates no significant trends in the data series for all the stations at the 5% significance level," and in like manner they report that "the Deviance test results between stationary generalized extreme value [GEV] models and non-stationary GEV models with time as covariate [also] indicate no evidence of trends in extreme precipitation for all the Moroccan stations.""

'C3' Editor Conclusions: The IPCC predicted extreme climate change as represented by severe precipitation events is not happening. This research out of Morocco seems to corroborate previous research done across the globe indicating a lack of discernible trend for severe precipitation events.

Previous severe-weather, failed-predictions and peer-reviewed postings. Severe-weather charts.

August 21, 2012 at 07:38 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Extreme Climate Change: The 1933-1938 Period Was One of Very Severe Weather Events, Including Global Heat Waves

Taxpayer funded climate-doomsday scientists and the mainstream media ambulance chasers perpetuate the myth that today's severe weather events are a result of human-CO2 caused extreme climate change - actually, today's bad weather seems rather mild to similar events decades before large human CO2 emissions

(image source)

1933: Rare Hurricane Slams Into South Africa

1933: Bitter Winter Weather In Russia & Europe: Snow Causes Wolves To Attack Train

1933: West Australian Heat Wave - "Severest In History"

1933: Heat Waves, Floods, Droughts, Famines Plague China

1933: Spain's Heat Wave: 130 Degrees In Shade

1933: Heat Wave Causes New Jersey Road To "Explode"

1933: Hottest June In U.S. History - Heat Wave & Drought

1933: 21 Perish During Texas, Louisiana Tornado & Hail Storms

1933: Drought In South Africa - "Worst Outlook For 50 Years"

1933: Flooding In China Kills 50,000

1933: India's Ganges River Bursts Its Banks - Widespread Flood Damage & Fatalities

1934: 80% of U.S. Suffers From Drought Conditions

1934: "Heat Wave In China Kills One In Every Thousand"

1934: Antarctic Has Incredible Heat Wave – 25 Degrees Over Zero

1934: February Tornado Strikes Several U.S. States

1934: World Wide Drought & Heat Causes Vast Majority of Alps' Glaciers To Melt

1934: Iowa Heat Wave In May - Pushes Temps Over 110 Degrees

1934: All 48 U.S. States Over 100 Degrees During June

1934: 14 Days of Above 100°F Temps Kill Over 600 Americans

1934: South African Drought Severely Hits Farmers

1934: Nebraska Temperatures Soar To 117 Degrees

1934: Drought, Heat, Floods, Cyclones, & Forest Fires Hit Europe

1934: British Drought Stunts Hay Growth

1934: Worst Drought In England For 100 Years

1934: 7 Days of Incessant, Torrential Rains Cause Massive Flooding In Eastern Bengal

1934: Global Warming Causes 81% Of Swiss Glaciers To Retreat

1934: Canadian Crops Blasted By Intense Heat Wave

1934: "South African Floods Are Unprecedented"

1934: Typhoon Hits Japan Followed By A Massive Tsunami

1934: Record Heat And Drought Across The Midwest

1934: China's Fall Crops Burning Up During Drought & Heat

1934: Five Million Americans Face Starvation From Drought

1934: Adelaide, Australia Has Record Dry Spell

1934: Gigantic Hailstorm Blankets South African Drought Region

1934: Drought And Sweltering Heat In England

1934: Record Heat Bakes Wisconsin - 104°F

1934: 20 Nebraskans Succumb To Unprecedented 117 Degree Heat

1934: Poland Swamped By Floods - Hundreds Perish

1934: 115 Degrees In Iowa Breaks Record

1934: 115 Degrees Reached In China In The Shade - Heat Wave Ruining Crops

1934: Majority of Continental U.S. Suffers From Drought Conditions

1934: Severe Northern Hemisphere Drought Causes Wheat Prices To "Skyrocket"

1934: Extreme U.S. Winter Weather Leaves 60 Dead In Its Path

1935: Severe Wind Storm Lashes Western States With 60 MPH Gusts

1935: Florida Burns Its Dead After The Most Powerful Hurricane In US History

1935: “The Worst Dust Storm In History” - Kansas City

1935: Worst Drought Since 1902 Has Queensland, Australia In Its Grip

1935: “50 Dust Storms In 104″ Days

1935: France Cooked By Heat Wave

1935: Tropical Windstorm Strikes Texas With 85 MPH Gusts

1935: 'Black Dusters' Strike Again In The Texas Dust Bowl

1935: India Hit With Extreme Heat Wave - 124 Degrees

1935: Heat Wave, Drought & Torrential Rains Cause Misery In Europe

1936: "Niagara Falls Freezes Into One Giant Icicle"

1936: February Was Coldest In U.S. History

1936: Italian Alps Glacier Shrinks: WWI Army Bodies Uncovered By Melting

1936: Ice Bridge In Iceland Collapses From Heat Wave & Glacier Melt

1936: Violent Tornadoes Pummel The South - 300 Dead

1936: Dust, Snow & Wind Storm Hit Kansas Region In Same Day

1936: Unprecedented Heat Wave In Moscow

1936: Ukraine Wheat Harvest Threatened By Heat Wave

1936: 780 Canadians Die From Heat Wave

1936: Iowa Heat Wave Has 12 Days of Temperatures Over 100 Degrees

1936: Heat Wave Deaths In Just One Small U.S. City: 50 Die In Springfield, IL

1936: Missouri Heat Wave: 118 Degrees & 311 Deaths

1936: Ontario, Canada Suffers 106 Degree Temps During Heat Wave

1936: Alaska's 10-Day Heat Wave Tops Out At 108 Degrees

1936 : Record Heat Wave Bakes Midwest; "Condition of Crops Critical"

1936: Midwest Climate So Bad That Climate Scientist Recommends Evacuation of Central U.S.

1936: 12,000 Perish In U.S. Heat Wave - Murderous Week

1936: Single Day Death Toll From Heat Wave - 1,000 Die

1936: Iceland Hurricane Sinks Polar Research Ship Filled With Scientists

1936: Severe Drought & Disastrous Floods In Southern Texas

1936: 20,000 Homeless In Flame Ravaged Forests of Oregon

1936: Northern California Seared By Forest Fires Over 400-Mile Front

1936: Tremendous Gale & Mountainous Waves Pound S. California - 7 Persons Missing

1936: Glacier Park Hotel Guests Flee As Forest Fire Advances - Worst Fire In Years

1936: Iowa Christmas Season Heat Wave Sets Temperature Records - 58 Degrees

1936: 3rd Major USA Drought In 6 Years

1937: Brazil Heat Wave Sets Off Tempers & Combustion

1937: Exceptionally Early Season Iceberg Menaces Shipping

1937: Dramatic Climate Change In The Arctic - 7° Change In Average Temperatures Is Experienced

1937: Soviet Camp At North Pole Threatened By Heat Wave And Rain

1937: Arctic Winter Temperatures Up 5-7 Degrees

1937: Arizona Struck By Rain, Hail and Dust Storms

1937: Heat Wave Brings 114 Degrees In Saskatchewan, Canada

1937: "Huge Forest Fire In Canada"

1937: Mississippi Flood Forced Evacuation Of 600,000 People

1937: 45 MPH Wind Storm Blasts Evansville, Indiana After Super-Flood Hits

1937: Eastern Canada Suffers From Snow & Dust Storm Combination

1938: Monster Hurricane Surprises Then Slams NY and New England

1938: Extreme Winter Weather Drives Wolves From Mountains Into Romanian Villages

1938: February "Tornado Demolishes Village" In Louisiana

1938: 5 Dead After 14-Day Old Hurricane Strikes Near San Francisco

1938: Soviet Explorers Say “World Climate Growing Warmer”

1938: Melting Ice Caps To Raise Sea Level 100 Feet - Islands Will Disappear

1938: Tornadoes Wreak Havoc Across 5 States

1938 : Surging Floods In China Kill 150,000

1938: Chinese 'Dust Bowl' - No Rain In Szechuan For A Year – One Million Starving To Death

1938: Worst Drought In 150 Years Hits Europe - "Dispels War Clouds Over Europe"

1938: Three Major Forest Fires Burning Up Kentucky

1938: "Unprecedented Drought," Wildfires In Everglades Threaten Property & Lives

1938: Severe Drought Threatens Russian Harvest

1938: Drought Spreads From Texas To Canada

1938: Heat Wave Grips America - 110 Degrees In Dakotas Reached

1938: U.S. Suffers A Forest Fire Every 3 Minutes During 1938

1938: "Pacific States Swept By Fires" - 600 Fires Burning Forests

1938: Great New England Hurricane Delivers 800 Deaths & Massive Destruction

Conclusion: The current extreme fear-mongering and severe hysterical claims emanating from the mouths of climate-doomsday scientists and their MSM cohorts are truly unprecedented - today's extreme climate change and severe weather incidents, not so much.

July 06, 2012 at 10:01 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

More Climate Science-Lies: University of Nebraska Claims "Record" Drought In 2012

Honestly, climate-liars must be an 'affirmative action' position at most colleges and universities - producing climate science-lies must get one tenure

(image source)

Read here. Climate-lies from doomsday scientists, associated with universities, is becoming much more common. The latest is the brazen lie that the current drought climate condition within the U.S. is a record.

It's not even close, as the adjacent empricial evidence reveals. The 1930's (top graphic) clearly had drought conditions well surpassing those of 2012 (bottom graphic).

And, of course, the famous 1930's drought and heat waves took place under a regime of low atmospheric CO2 levels.

Previous severe-weather postings and charts.

July 06, 2012 at 05:13 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Extreme Climate Change: Severe Weather In EU Region Falls To Lowest Level In 100 Years

The IPCC's climate doomsday scientists have been predicting that modern global warming would cause extreme climate change leading to an increase of severe weather events - new EU-Netherlands research proves the alarmists wrong

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Read here. The Dutch are use to stormy weather and have a long history of recording such events. A researcher decided to investigate the records going back 101 years to determine if severe weather incidents had increased.

"In another blow to the alarmist fallacy that climate change is causing more extreme weather, a paper published today in the journal Climatic Change finds that windstorm damage in the Netherlands is presently the lowest over the entire 101 year period of study...The resulting windstorm loss time-series for the Netherlands contains some interesting features. Annual losses are stable over the whole period and have a dominant cycle with a period of about 50 years. The Netherlands is currently experiencing the minimum aggregate storm damage of the past 100 years, though only slightly lower than a quiet period of 50 years ago. Both of these minima are driven primarily by lowered rates of occurrence of damaging storms." [Stephen Cusack 2012: Climatic Change]

Conclusion: As this new peer reviewed study demonstrates, human CO2 emissions are not causing extreme climate change in the EU region of the Netherlands. Previous studies have also found severe weather incidents not increasing over the modern era, around the world.

Previous severe-weather and peer-reviewed postings. Severe-weather charts.

June 28, 2012 at 10:01 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Extreme Climate Change: New EU Research Confirms That Global Warming Does Not Cause Severe Weather Events

The IPCC predictions of severe weather events, such as droughts, floods, storms and etc. due to global warming has been a rather embarrassing failure - and another study confirms that extreme climate change is not happening as result of warming

(image source)

Read here. The UN, the IPCC and a group of climate doomsday scientists continue to predict an increase of severe weather from modern warming (which has gone missing for the last 15 years), plus constantly claim that any recent drought or flood or storm or whatever is the result of CO2 emissions and associated warming.

Unfortunately for them, their actual proof is literally non-existent - they have no empirical evidence to stand on, other than anecdotal stories and/or singular, one-off events. Instead, they base their predictions and their foolish claims on computer simulations. Of course, what they always fail to mention is that the climate models were programmed by the climate model "scientists" to produce severe weather event predictions from...wait...take a guess...yes!, from global warming.

However, as a plethora of studies before it, the Buntgen et al. research again finds that severe precipitation weather events have not increased in number or intensity as modern global warming took place.

"The authors state that anthropogenically-induced climate change is projected by climate models to increase the frequency, severity and probability of extreme meteorological phenomena; and many climate alarmists claim that we have been experiencing this effect of global warming...the nine researchers analyzed 11,873 annually-resolved and absolutely-dated ring-width measurement series from living and historical fir trees that had been sampled across France, Switzerland, Germany and the Czech Republic, and which continuously spanned the AD 962-2007 period...discovered there was "a fairly uniform distribution of hydroclimatic extremes throughout the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age and Recent Global Warming,"...extreme hydroclimatic phenomena were found to not be amplified in either number or strength in response to global warming, which leads one to suspect that the same likely holds true for other portions of the planet, in contradiction of vociferous climate-alarmist claims to the contrary." [Ulf Büntgen, Rudolf Brázdil, Karl-Uwe Heussner, Jutta Hofmann, Raymond Kontic, Tomáš Kyncl, Christian Pfister, Kateřina Chromá, Willy Tegel 2011: Quaternary Science Reviews]

Conclusion: Extreme climate change, in the form of increased and more powerful severe weather events, is not occurring as a result of modern global warming. The actual empirical evidence as presented in peer reviewed studies does not support the catastrophic weather predictions of the IPCC and climate doomsday scientists.

Previous severe-weather, failed-predictions and peer-reviewed postings. Severe-weather charts and a list of severe-weather incidents.

June 14, 2012 at 09:03 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Extreme Climate Change: Global Warming Does Not Cause Severe Weather - Confirmed By All Peer Reviewed Empirical Research

Climate doomsday scientists and chicken-little pundits claim AGW is causing more frequent severe weather events – empirical research though can’t establish any link between extreme climate change, severe weather trends & global warming

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Read here. Let’s be honest about this – our nation is led by many pathetically stupid people (hmmm…pathological liars?) who consistently choose to utter clown-like statements. Despite the preponderance of empirical research, these chicken-little clowns continue to claim that human CO2 emissions and “global warming” have caused an increase in severe weather incidents.

Fortunately, for the world, peer reviewed research based on empirical evidence (not computer simulations) establishes that an increased frequency of severe weather incidents is not the result of AGW but of colder climatic conditions. Here are seven (7) EU studies confirming that:

1. An Alps study "refutes the notion that anthropogenic warming is causing an increase of climate extremes and making weather more variable and extreme… Not only did the author find no change in variability, but he also detected a ”centennial oscillating structure”."

2. A Mediterranean coastal study…” In addition,...make a point of noting that "the apparent increase in intense storms around 250 years ago lasts to about AD 1900," whereupon "intense meteorological activity seems to return to a quiescent interval after (i.e. during the 20th century AD)." And they add that, "interestingly, the two periods of most frequent superstorm strikes in the Aigues-Mortes Gulf (AD 455 and 1700-1900) coincide with two of the coldest periods in Europe during the late Holocene…”

3. A study for the Aquitaine region…”…finding that dune formation was generally most common during cooler climatic intervals. In the most recent of these cold periods, the authors note there is voluminous historical evidence of many severe North Atlantic wind storms in which the southward spread of sea ice and polar water during that time likely created "an increased thermal gradient between 50°N and 65°N which intensified storm activity in the North Atlantic… Hence, the long view of history suggests that the global warming of the past century or so has actually led to an overall decrease in North Atlantic storminess.”

4. A study from the “from two cores of the Pierre Blanche lagoon just south of Montpellier, France found evidence in the form of "washover events" that allowed them "to identify the strongest storms in the Mediterranean area" over the past four centuries… Such a decline in the occurrence of "superstorms" in the Mediterranean area -- if not their total disappearance -- is a significant observation running counter to the climate-alarmist claim that global warming both intensifies storms and brings more of them.”

5. A study from Northwestern France “linked high-resolution sediment and rock properties of materials found in cores collected from the Seine estuary in northwest France to climatic conditions of the past few thousand years… they report on "four prominent centennial-scale periods of stronger storminess, occurring with a pacing of ~1500 years," which they say are "likely to be related to the last four [of] Bond's Holocene cold events," the most recent of which was the Little Ice Age…”

6. A study from the macrotidal Bay of Vilaine…” while observing that "this shift most probably documents the transition from the MWP to the Little Ice Age," which led to the "increased storminess both in the marine and continental ecosystems… concluded their study by stating that "the preservation of medieval estuarine flood deposits implies that sediment reworking by marine dynamics was considerably reduced between 880 and 1050 AD," implying that during that considerably warmer period than most (if not all) of what followed it, "climatic conditions were probably mild enough to prevent coastal erosion in northwestern France."

7. A study from France’s Atlantic coast…”analyzed tide-gauge, wind and atmospheric pressure data over the period 1951-… This work indicated that the number of atmospheric depressions (storms) and strong surge winds for this region, in the words of the author, "are becoming less frequent" and that "ongoing trends of climate variability show a decrease in the frequency and hence the gravity of coastal flooding" over the period of study.”

Conclusions: Extreme climate change – global warming during late 20^th century has not led to an increase of severe weather per the multitude of recent empirical research studies (not computer simulations). Climate doomsday scientists and chicken-little politicians, primarily anti-science Democrat left-liberals-progressives, continue to mislead and frighten the public with fearmongering tactics about global warming and CO2 regardless of the empirical evidence. Instead, if the recent slight global cooling trend continues one could expect more stormy weather.

Previous severe-weather and peer-reviewed postings. A listing of historical severe-weather incidents. Severe-weather and modern-temperature charts.

June 01, 2012 at 09:07 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Extreme Climate Change: Severe Hurricane Incidents At Record Low, Opposite of IPCC Predictions

The IPCC, and its grumpy band of Climategate alarmist scientists, predicted extreme climate change from human caused global warming - specifically, they predicted more frequent and more severe hurricane landfalls - they were wrong

(click on image to enlarge, image source)

Read here. The adjacent chart reveals the number of days between landfalls of a major hurricane striking the U.S. Since the last Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane strike, it's been 2,412 days and counting.

Since 1900, that is the longest span ever between major landfalls. And this significant climate science factoid is contrary to the IPCC "experts" whose consensus prediction categorically claimed that these large devastating storms would be more intense and more frequent, due to the increasing human CO2 emissions and global warming.

As is obvious to even the most fanatical believer in the CAGW religion, the scientific, empirical evidence readily documents that the CO2-alarmist "experts" have been spectacularly wrong.

With that said, the U.S. is long overdue for a major severe hurricane strike and it could well happen in 2012. Then again, it might not. Either way, the IPCC has proven to be incapable of any scientific predictive skill.

Previous extreme climate change and failed-predictions postings. A list of severe-weather events and other severe-weather charts.

May 17, 2012 at 12:01 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Climate Modeling Failure: New Study Finds EPA & IPCC Climate Models Wrong About More Droughts For Southwest USA

The EPA, the IPCC and the USGCRP bureaucrats have erroneously predicted, per their global climate models, that southwest U.S. would become drier with more droughts - the latest research finds that these predictions are result of climate modeling failure

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Read here. Climate alarmist scientists and multi-agency bureaucrats continue to produce erroneous assessments and misguided advice for policymakers based on global climate models. Computer models, and especially the global climate variety, have been a fountain of bogus predictions for years.

In a new study, experts documented another case of failed of global computer simulations that confirms why these hugely expensive 'big picture' models are pretty much worthless. Counter to the EPA and IPCC's predictions, the southwest USA is actually less likely to suffer from droughts, water shortages, forest fires, agriculture crop failure or insect infestations based on new research.

Why were the tax-payer sucking, big government agencies, soooo wrong? The global climate modelers forgot to tell the bureaucrats that the models did not include the impact of mountains on the climate and the bureaucrats were too stupid and/or lazy to ask - doh!

"A research team...[Gao et al.]...investigated that the differences between how large-scale global climate models and finer-scale regional climate models handled the characteristics of moisture flow in the atmosphere over the southwestern U.S...The regional climate models (RCMs) include much finer scale processes than are included in the global climate models (GCMs). In the Southwest, this includes a finer representation of the complex, mountainous terrain which plays a key role in the regional precipitation processes...compared how the RCMs handled the processes that lead to precipitation across the Southwest compared to how the processes were simulated in GCMs. They generally found that the better representation of the terrain by the RCMs allowed them to generate more future rainfall...result from Gao et al. showing that RCMs generated more future precipitation than GCMs in the Southwestern U.S...RCMs allowed them to better simulate the snow accumulation and ablation at high elevations and consequently “runoff in the Colorado River Basin is less susceptible to a warming climate in RCMs than in GCMs.”" [Yanhong Gao, L. Ruby Leung, Eric P. Salathé Jr., Francina Dominguez, Bart Nijssen, Dennis P. Lettenmaier 2012: Geophysical Research Letters]

Conclusion: Global climate modeling failure is the rule rather than the exception in regards to the computer simulations that EPA & IPCC bureaucrats and policymakers rely on. New research regarding a regional climate in the U.S. substantiates the failed predictive capability of global climate models. As a result, these global climate models guarantee massive amounts of government investments being wasted on erroneous climate change impacts, such as more droughts in the southwest U.S..

Previous climate-model, droughts-floods and peer-reviewed postings. Climate-model and severe-weather charts.

May 15, 2012 at 08:01 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Extreme Climate Change: EU Scientists Discover That Modern Severe Weather Events Happen Less

Global warming alarmists claim that extreme climate change is producing an increased frequency of severe weather events - new EU research proves that claim to be false

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Read here. Global warming alarmists and hysterical pundits/reporters are now apparently turning every nasty weather event into "proof" that current global warming is causing extreme climate change. Unfortunately for said alarmists, the empirical evidence completely undercuts claims that warming causes bad weather - essentially, the claims are all hype for several reasons.

One, there has been no global warming for the last 15 years - the climate observation datasets are unequivocal about this.
Two, from the recent past, it is well documented that very severe weather has been part of our climate over the last 100 years, well before the modern warming from the late 1970's to the late 1990's.
Three, EU scientists (Sabatier et al.) have now documented that severe weather was worst in the historical past when temperatures were colder, not warmer.

"The authors write that "the Mediterranean region is one of the world's most vulnerable areas with respect to global warming,"...they thus consider it to be extremely important to determine what impact further temperature increases might have on the storminess of the region...produced a high-resolution record of paleostorm events along the French Mediterranean coast over the past 7000 years...from the sediment bed of Pierre Blanche Lagoon [near Montpellier, France]...nine French scientists, as they describe it, "recorded seven periods of increased storm activity at 6300-6100, 5650-5400, 4400-4050, 3650-3200, 2800-2600, 1950-1400, and 400-50 cal yr BP," the latter of which intervals they associate with the Little Ice Age. And they go on to state, "in contrast," that their results show that "the Medieval Climate [global warming] Anomaly (1150-650 cal yr BP) was characterized by low storm activity." They further note that these changes in coastal hydrodynamics were in phase with those observed over the Eastern North Atlantic...and that the periods of increased storminess they identified seem to correspond to periods of Holocene cooling detected in the North Atlantic..." [Pierre Sabatier, Laurent Dezileau, Christophe Colin, Louis Briqueu, Frédéric Bouchette, Philippe Martinez, Giuseppe Siani, Olivier Raynal, Ulrich Von Grafenstein 2012: Quaternary Research]

Conclusion: The claimed extreme climate change and associated severe weather events over the last 15 years are not the result of "global warming." In addition, historical empirical evidence makes it clear that severe weather incidents increase as the climate cools, not when it warms. It is well established that the past cooler climates have had profound negative impacts on society whereas warmer climates have been more beneficent.

Previous climate-history, severe-weather and peer-reveiwed postings. Climate and temperature charts.

May 04, 2012 at 06:15 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Extreme Climate Change Risk: Scientists Find Himalaya Severe Rainfall Evidence 'Baffling'

Researchers analyzing data for extreme climate change risk continue to discover evidence that the predicted results are not happening - lack of extreme rainfall in the Himalayas is most recent example

Read here. The "scientists" associated with the UN's IPCC had predicted severe weather events would increase both in frequency and intensity due to global warming. Unique areas of the world, such as the Himalayas, were considered to be especially vulnerable to these events.

To assess the extreme climate change risk that the Himalayas faced, researchers set out to document the severe rainfall events that were long predicted.

"Nandargi and Dhar decided to present "a brief review of the available information and data for extreme rainfall events that were experienced in different sectors of the Himalayas during the last 137 years" in an attempt to determine "the impact of climate change on the extreme one-day rainfall of the Himalayan region, in the context of rising temperatures."...Working with data obtained from 475 measurement stations...said that there is an increase in the frequencies of extreme rainfall events from the 1951-1960 decade onwards," but only until "there was a sudden decrease in the frequency of extreme rainfall events in all the four categories in the recent period of 2001-2007...concluding words of the two scientists, "it is somewhat baffling as to whether climate change has any impact on extreme rainfall events in the entire Himalayan region..." [S. Nandargia, O. N. Dhara 2011: Hydrological Sciences Journal]

Conclusion: The extreme climate change risk promulgated by the big global insurance companies and their scientific minions has proven to be without merit when the actual empirical evidence is closely scrutinized.

Previous severe-weather, failed-prediction and peer-reviewed postings.

April 18, 2012 at 12:53 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Severe Weather Events: Tornadoes of 2011, The Final Analysis - Data Reveal No Trend For The Violent Storms

Without any empirical evidence, the mainstream media continues to report that global warming is causing an increase of severe weather events - latest scientific analysis of tornadoes disproves IPCC alarmist claims to be meritless

Read here. The IPCC continues to push the bogus claim that "global warming" (supposedly due to human CO2) is (and will) causing more severe weather events with the publication of their new 'SREX' report.

The incredibly stupid and lazy journalists covering climate science dutifully report the desired summary propaganda that the IPCC wants heard. Yet if they made any effort, the reporters would soon discover that the empirical evidence does not support the the IPCC hypothesis that past warming has caused more severe weather.

The adjacent violent tornado chart is a clear cut example that alarmist claims of more severe weather due to warming is indeed not factual.

In addition, climate science journalists are soooo lazy, and obviously enraptured (cult-like?) with misleading the public about climate disasters, they always seem to miss the IPCC's fine print, such as this in the new 'SREX' report:

“While there is evidence that increases in greenhouse gases have likely caused changes in some types of extremes, there is no simple answer to the question of whether the climate, in general, has become more or less extreme.”...“There is medium evidence and high agreement that long-term trends in normalized losses have not been attributed to natural or anthropogenic climate change.”...“The statement about the absence of trends in impacts attributable to natural or anthropogenic climate change holds for tropical and extratropical storms and tornados.”...“The absence of an attributable climate change signal in losses also holds for flood losses.”

Conclusions: First, severe weather events have not increased as a result of global warming - in fact, even the IPCC admits there is no increasing trend of said events. Second, climate science reporters and the mainstream media continue to mislead and misinform the public and policymakers with bogus reports of 'cherry-picked' extreme weather events, both current and predicted.

Previous severe-weather postings and charts. Actual list of severe weather events.

April 01, 2012 at 05:36 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Extreme Weather Events: New Chinese Research Dispels Urban Myth That Global Warming Causes Large Snowstorms

All extreme weather events are seemingly claimed by warmists as being caused by global warming - big snowstorms is one of the more bizarre claims

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Read here. It has become a common practice among those advocating government control of CO2 emissions and higher energy prices that all modern extreme weather events are a result of global warming. These claims have taken on the characteristics of urban myths believed by those who have high disdain for empirical evidence.

Although there is ample scientific evidence that global warming has been non-existent over the past 10 years and that extreme weather events happened with alarming frequency prior to the modern era, a new peer reviewed study out of China shatters the urban legend that global warming causes more frequent and larger snowstorms.

Research on extreme weather events:

After the $21 billion snowstorm disaster experienced in China during 2008, Chinese researchers (Hou et al.) closely examined 500 years of historical data to determine how unique this gargantuan snowstorm was.

"From 10 January to 2 February 2008..."continuous heavy snowfall occurred over Central and Southern China...causing "1.7 million people to be displaced for periods ranging between a few days to a month," and affecting "critical infrastructure including electric power grids and communication systems," while "food production, forests, wildlife and buildings all suffered heavy damage..."...the four researchers "used weather records contained in Chinese historical documents from the past 500 years to search for ESEs [extreme snow events] that were comparable in severity,...they identified 25 additional ESEs that were "comparable to the extreme snow event in 2008 in terms of snowfall days, snow cover/icing days and snow depth," and a graph of their data indicates that all of the additional ESEs occurred during periods that were colder than the past decade...noting that their results reveal, as they describe it, "what we have learned from the past," which is that this particular extreme has become much less common than it was in colder times." [Zhixin Hao, Jingyun Zheng, Quansheng Ge, Wei-Chyung Wang 2011: Climate Research]

Conclusion: The green warmists that dominate the ranks of leftists / progressives / liberals / Democrats almost completely rely on promulgating urban myths regarding climate change, global warming and extreme weather events. Fortunately for the rest of the world, the preponderance of empirical evidence and peer reviewed research does not support the myths and legends.

Previous severe-weather and peer-reviewed postings. Severe weather charts.

March 22, 2012 at 04:37 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Facts About Droughts: Modern U.S. Southeastern Droughts Less Severe Than Those of Little Ice Age

For the global warming alarmist community, the inconvenient facts about droughts is that previous climate change produced more severe and longer lasting droughts

Read here. The historical evidence strongly supports that the severe climatic conditions of the Little Ice Age (pre-1850) produced extreme droughts that often affected Georgia and other locations of the Southeast U.S.

A new study of the U.S. Southeast confirms the known facts about droughts. Pederson et al. found that droughts during the end of the Little Ice Age were more severe and of longer duration than those of the 20th and 21st centuries. In essence, previous climate change, especially during cooler periods, produced more extreme climatic conditions in many parts of the world.

"A paper published today in Environmental Research Letters uses tree-ring proxies to reconstruct drought conditions of the American Southeast from 1665 to 2010. The authors find "The reconstruction shows that the recent droughts are not unprecedented over the last 346 years. Indeed, droughts of extended duration occurred more frequently between 1696 and 1820. Our results indicate that the era in which local and state water supply decisions were developed and the period of instrumental data upon which it is based are amongst the wettest since at least 1665." [N. Pederson, A. R. Bell, T. A. Knight, C. Leland, N. Malcomb, K. J. Anchukaitis, K. Tackett, J. Scheff, A. Brice, B. Catron, W. Blozan, J. Riddle 2012: Environmental Research Letters]

Conclusion: The empirical, inconvenient facts about droughts is that they have been found to be more frequent and more severe during cooler climate change regimes.

Previous drought-flood, climate-history, peer-reviewed postings.

March 19, 2012 at 06:24 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Peter Gleick's Science Technique Is Alive & Well: Insurance Companies and NOAA Pushing Climate Change Fraud

The disgraced climate science-fraud Peter Gleick of 'Fakegate' fame is not alone in the realm of climate science malfeasance - indeed, the lies of disaster alarmism persist as insurance companies and NOAA are still pushing climate change fraud

Read here. One of the world's foremost experts takes the large insurance companies and NOAA to task for brazenly misleading the public and policymakers about global disaster trends.

If there was ever a definitive indicator that science fraud is being perpetrated, the collaboration of big insurance companies and government bureaucrats has to be the best-of-breed known.

"NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco and NCDC head Tom Karl write in Physics Today about the 14 "billion dollar disasters" tabulated by NOAA for 2011 and ask "Why did we see such expensive damage last year?" Their answer, predictably, includes "climate change" and is followed by a lengthy exposition on why NOAA needs more money.
- Reality Check: Lubchenco and Karl somehow failed to note that NOAA and NCDC have cautioned against drawing any such conclusions from the "billion dollar disasters." And even though Lubchenco and Karl cite the recent IPCC Special Report on Extreme Events, they also somehow forgot to mention this part: "Long-term trends in economic disaster losses adjusted for wealth and population increases have not been attributed to climate change, but a role for climate change has not been excluded." Deceiving."

Summary: Despite the well publicized fraud and deception of the amazing Fakegate climate science, major business and government officials continue pushing climate change fraud even when the known empirical evidence refutes their climate change claims.

March 02, 2012 at 04:13 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

The IPCC, Trenberth and Hurricanes: Climate Change Science & Global Warming Alarmism Done The 'Peter Gleick' Way

'Fakegate' has reminded the public of the prevalent fraud and deception perpetrated by global warming alarmism - the IPCC's hurricane "science" is one such example

Read here (h/t Bishop Hill). The 'Fakegate' style of science perpetrated by Peter Gleick is alive and well within the IPCC, where all bureaucrat scientists seemingly channel the 'Peter Gleick' methodology. This methodology primarily embraces the politician's mindset of elections: say-and-do-anything to get elected, including lying, sprinkled liberally with criminal fraud and unethical activities when required.

Unfortunately for the public and policymakers, this 'Peter Gleick' style of climate science is evident in the global warming alarmism claims made by the IPCC, including those about hurricanes. This is the latest expert analysis on IPCC hurricane "science":

"More trouble looms for the IPCC. The body may need to revise statements made in its Fourth Assessment Report on hurricanes and global warming. A statistical analysis of the raw data shows that the claims that global hurricane activity has increased cannot be supported...tests six IPCC statements against raw data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) Administration..."When you average the number of storms and their strength, it almost exactly balances." This isn't indicative of an increase in atmospheric energy manifesting itself in storms...The IPCC continues: "It is more likely than not (> 50%) that there has been some human contribution to the increases in hurricane intensity." But, as Hatton points out, that conclusion comes from computer climate models, not from the observational data, which show no increase..."The IPCC goes on to make statements that would never pass peer review,"..."

And btw, Kevin Trenberth, the major IPCC climate scientist, and also co-author with the notorious Peter Gleick, is the principal player behind the global warming alarmism "science" of hurricanes.

"The IPCC's AR4 chapter lead was Kevin Trenberth, who features prominently in the Climategate emails. In 2005, the National Hurricane Center's chief scientist Chris Landsea resigned his post in protest at the treatment of the subject by Trenberth..."I personally cannot in good faith continue to contribute to a process that I view as both being motivated by pre-conceived agendas and being scientifically unsound. As the IPCC leadership has seen no wrong in Dr. Trenberth’s actions and have retained him as a Lead Author for the AR4, I have decided to no longer participate in the IPCC AR4."

Hmmm...maybe Trenberth's personna of climate science incompetence is instead an actual embracement of the 'Peter Gleick' methodology, no?

February 25, 2012 at 06:46 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)

Alarmist AGW Snowfall Prediction Wrong: Research Reveals Snowfall Not Impacted By Global Warming

The professional green CAGW alarmists predicted that global warming would bring climate change to Sierra Mtns. in the form of decreased snowfall levels - empirical evidence proves prediction to be without merit

(click on image to enlarge)

Read here. Another 'Big Green' climate change prediction. Another climate change prediction fail.

As the adjacent chart shows, the snowfall trend for the California Sierra region has not been impacted by human CO2 emissions or the modern global warming since the late 1800's.

"The analysis of snowfall data from as far back as 1878 found no long-term trend in how much snow falls in the state, especially in the critical western slope of the Sierra Nevada mountains...There isn’t a trend significantly different from zero for the whole period,...just the past 50 years and there is no trend over this recent stretch either."..."Monthly snowfall totals from over 500 stations in California, some of which date back to 1878, are examined. Most data were accessed through the NOAA archive...For those regions characterized by consistent monitoring and with the most robust statistical reproducibility, we find no statistically significant trends in their periods-of-record (up to 133 years) nor in the most recent 50 years. This result encompasses the main snowfall region of the western slope of the Sierra Nevada Mountains." [John R. Christy 2012: Journal of Hydrometeorology]

Previous severe-weather postings and charts; previous peer-reviewed and failed-prediction postings.

February 18, 2012 at 06:16 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Unequivocal & Irrefutable Empirical Research: No Increase In Hurricane Landfall - IPCC's AGW Prediction Fails Test

The IPCC & Climategate scientist Kenneth Trenberth long predicted that anthropogenic global warming would increase tropical cyclone landfalls - their prediction was wrong

Read here. The AGW alarmist scientists of the IPCC (including the world's most incompetent climate scientist) have for many years predicted that CO2-induced global warming would cause a severe increase in tropical cyclone frequency and strength. These ferocious storms would thus result in wreaking havoc on coastal areas worldwide, unless human CO2 emission growth was stopped - per the IPCC.

As with almost every single climate change catastrophic prediction that the IPCC has fantasized about, empirical research proves the increased cyclone / hurricane landfall prediction to be meritless. The actual scientific evidence is both unequivocal and irrefutable: the modern global warming has not produced a greater number of destructive tropical cyclones making landfall. (click on above peer reviewed chart to enlarge - evidence of failed prediction)

"Using currently available historical TC best-track records, we have constructed a global database focused on hurricane-force strength landfalls. Our analysis does not indicate significant long-period global or individual basin trends in the frequency or intensity of landfalling TCs of minor or major hurricane strength. This evidence provides strong support for the conclusion that increasing damage around the world during the past several decades can be explained entirely by increasing wealth in locations prone to TC landfalls..." [Jessica Weinkle, Ryan Maue and Roger Pielke, Jr. 2012: Journal of Climate]

Previous hurricane-cyclone, failed-prediction, severe-weather and peer-reviewed postings. Severe weather charts.

February 17, 2012 at 08:43 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Predicted Increase In Severe Windstorms From Global Warming Has Not Happened, New Research Shows

As the majority of empirical-based scientists are now discovering, the IPCC's global warming catastrophic predictions have been terribly wrong - the failed prediction of an increase of severe windstorms is newest example

Read here. The IPCC, its climate models and its Climategate scientists have become infamous for flat-out, dreadful, incorrect climate predictions. A prominent prediction of an increase in severe weather due to global warming (ie, climate change) was made long ago, yet all the empirical research keeps confirming the lack of an increase. (click on image for more info)

The latest research on severe windstorms in the U.S. is another example of the incompetence of the IPCC's climate models and its "consensus experts."

"The author notes that high winds - excluding those associated with hurricanes, tornadoes, snowstorms, blizzards and heavy rainstorms - are one of the United States' leading types of damage-producing storms. These straight-line windstorms, as they are called, produce annual U.S. property and crop losses...Changnon describes how a number of adjustments to loss data of the past needed to be made "to calculate a revised monetary loss value for each catastrophe so as to make it comparable to current year values, 2006 in this study." And when these adjustments were made, he reports that the 55-year time trend "was not up or down."...study's finding that "the national temporal distribution of catastrophic windstorms during 1952-2006 has a flat trend,"..." [Stanley Changnon, 2011: Natural Hazards]

Previous severe-weather, failed-prediction and peer-reviewed postings. Severe weather charts.

February 14, 2012 at 05:45 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Climate Model Believer Kevin Trenberth: New Research Proves His Precipitation Predictions Robustly Bad

The travesty of Kevin Trenberth's climate predictions is only challenged by those of climate modeler James Hansen - they are both consistently wrong

Read here, image source here.

Kevin Trenberth, an IPCC climate "scientist", is widely known for both his aggressive smearing of his science critics and his dog-awful climate predictions.

Like a beggar-person addicted to alcohol, Trenberth seems to say and predict any CAGW outcomes to assure a continual flow of government research monies, including the prediction that global warming will cause frequent extreme precipitation events. Like many of his global warming climate predictions, he was wrong.

Climate researchers Dravitzki and McGregor analyzed precipitation events for the northern region of New Zealand and could find no evidence of what-in-the-hell Trenberth was talking about - another major prediction fail per the peer reviewed empirical data.

"Working with data from 18 meteorological observation stations located in and about the Waikato region...developed daily precipitation time series covering the period 1900-2007, where they averaged the precipitation values..."since 1900 there have been no significant variations in the total annual precipitation nor in the occurrence or magnitude of extreme precipitation events," and they say that these events "...write that "the consistency of the precipitation totals suggests that the current economically important water supply is secure within the region." And we would add that their finding of no evidence for the projections of Trenberth and the IPCC over a 107-year period -- when climate alarmists claim the world warmed at a rate and to a level of warmth that were unprecedented over the past millennium or more - suggests that the projections of Trenberth and the IPCC are not what they are cracked up to be..." [Stacey Dravitzki, James McGregor 2011: International Journal of Climatology]

Previous severe-weather, prediction-failure and peer-reviewed postings. Severe weather charts.

February 02, 2012 at 05:52 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Can Climate Models Predict Snowfall? EU Researchers Ascertain Models Are Worthless For Snowfall

Often climate models are utilized for specific regional climate forecasts - scientists determine that for regional snowfalls, the models are worthless

Read here. It is well established that climate models have been atrocious at predicting global warming and other climate attributes. This lack of predictive skill globally is compounded when these models attempt to make regional predictions such as snowfall in a specific region.

EU scientists, Soncini and Bocchiola, analyzed snowfall predictions by two major climate models for the Italian Alps region. The models did not perform as advertised.

"The authors write that "General Circulation Models (GCMs) are widely adopted tools to achieve future climate projections." They note, however, that "one needs to assess their accuracy, which is only possible by comparison of GCMs' control runs against past observed data,"...investigated the accuracy of simulations of snowfall throughout the Italian Alps that were provided by two GCMs...included within the family of models employed by the IPCC. This was done by comparing the models' output with a set of comprehensive ground data obtained from some 400 snow-gauging stations located within the region of interest for the period 1990-2009...determined that "the investigated GCMs provide poor depiction of the snowfall timing and amount upon the Italian Alps," noting, in fact, that the HadCM3 model actually "displays considerable snowfall during summer," which they indicate "is clearly not supported by ground data"..."given the poor depiction of snowfall by the GCMs here tested, we suggest that care should be taken when using their outputs for predictive purposes."" [A. Soncini, D. Bocchiola 2011: Cold Regions Science and Technology]

Additional failed-predictions, severe-weather and peer-reviewed postings.

January 27, 2012 at 05:03 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Scientists Discover That Frequency of Super Hurricanes Has Declined Significantly Over Last 600 Years

Super hurricane frequency was greater thousands of years ago when CO2 levels were low - new evidence shows modern global warming has not caused an increase

Read here. Image source here.

The IPCC and other global warming alarmists predicted that the frequency of extreme hurricanes would increase because of CO2-induced global warming. At least that's what their theory told them.

Recently, climate researchers analyzed a large Florida sinkhole that had hurricane evidence going back some 4,500 years. This new empirical evidence now establishes that super hurricane frequency was much greater thousands of years ago, and that the modern era has experienced far fewer of these monster storms despite human CO2 and warming.

"Lane et al. developed a 4500-year record of intense hurricane-induced storm surges based on data obtained from "a nearly circular, 200-m-diameter cover-collapse sinkhole...reconstructed record of intense hurricanes revealed that the frequency of these "high-magnitude" events "peaked near 6 storms per century between 2800 and 2300 years ago." Thereafter, it suggests that they were "relatively rare" with "about 0-3 storms per century occurring between 1900 and 1600 years ago," after which they state that these super-storms exhibited a marked decline, which "began around 600 years ago" and has persisted through the present with "below average frequency over the last 150 years when compared to the preceding five millennia."" [Philip Lane, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, Jonathan D. Woodruff, Andrea D. Hawkes 2011: Marine Geology]

Previous severe-weather and peer-reviewed postings. Severe-weather charts.

January 25, 2012 at 06:13 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Scientists Predicted Australia Would Become The 'Drought' Continent: They Were Wrong

Read here, here and here.

As this updated climate map reveals, the severe drought condition for Australia during 2011 was essentially non-existent. The IPCC-based climate science predicted more frequent and intense droughts, which has not been the case.

Previous severe-weather and failed-prediction postings. Severe-weather charts.

January 12, 2012 at 05:28 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Global Warming & U.S. Severe Weather: Latest Data Reveals There To Be No Link

Due to the incredibly bad reporting by the mainstream press, many Americans believe the U.S. suffers from "accelerated warming" and increasing severe weather - neither are true

First, as the adjacent chart reveals, U.S. temperatures are not "accelerating." The red curve is the 12-month moving average (since 1895), which clearly shows no acceleration, and shows zero relationship to the growing levels of atmospheric CO2 levels (black dots).

As can be seen, U.S. monthly temperatures have a wide variation (the blue up/down plot) in any given year, fluctuating between low and high extremes.

Again, no "accelerating" warming trend is evident from the actual temperature empirical evidence. (click on charts to enlarge)

Read here. This second chart plots the total number of severe tornadoes (F2, F3, F4 & F5) in decade groups (the 2000's include 2011). This actual empirical evidence substantiates that severe weather events, as represented by extreme tornadoes, are not increasing in the U.S.

Conclusion: The mainstream press (eg., NYT, WaPo, Time, CBS, NBC, LA Times, etc.) willfully and unequivocally reports misinformation regarding severe weather and global warming. They do so to purposefully mislead the public and policymakers regarding global warming and climate change.

Previous severe-weather postings. Modern temperatures and severe-weather charts.

January 11, 2012 at 05:19 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

The UN Lies of Durban: Severe Weather Is Increasing Due To Human CO2 Emissions

The UN's Climategate scientists and bureaucrats continue pushing the "severe weather" lies at Durban IPCC climate conference

Since time immemorial, humans have been talking about how bad the weather has been over the 'past year' or over the 'past growing season.' This uniquely human trait is often exhibited throughout the ancient text of the Bible. Yet the corrupt United Nations and its Climategate perpetrators continue to claim that recent bad weather is actually only due to "global warming" and human CO2 emissions.

Unfortunately for the UN 'liars of Durban,' the world's previous severe weather incidents includes a gigantic list of bad weather events happening well before dangerous CO2 levels.

In addition, the immense preponderance of modern climate peer-reviewed studies can find no connection between human CO2 emissions and modern severe weather.

And now, adding further empirical evidence misery to the UN's Climategate liars' claims, comes this startling factoid: severe hurricane landfalls in the U.S. have plummeted over the last 6 years!

Combine these type of actual facts with the recent extreme weather science report that is being suppressed at Durban ("Uncertainty in the sign of projected changes in climate extremes over the coming two to three decades is relatively large because climate change signals are expected to be relatively small compared to natural climate variability"), and it is no wonder that public and policymaker support for global warming and climate change policies has crumbled over the last few years - bureaucracy lies and science corruption usually have that sort of outcome, thankfully.

December 01, 2011 at 05:40 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

"Consensus" Science: U.S. Climate Scientists Now Say Global Warming Will Cause Fewer Hurricanes To Strike America

The absurdity of "consensus" climate change science and global warming alarmism on display, again

Read here. As the 2011 hurricane season comes to a close, there has yet to be a direct major hurricane strike on the U.S. since 2005 (note: Hurricane Irene in 2011 became Tropical Storm Irene before striking the continental U.S.).

The anti-science left/liberal/progressives and the IPCC Climategate alarmists have long predicted that CO2-induced global warming will cause more frequent and more severe hurricane strikes on America's Atlantic coast. These AGW hurricanes would then cause massive economic damage and carnage resulting in climate refugees fleeing the coast.

In a nutshell, this is the pathetic and hysterical climate "science" that the left embraces and promulgates, without any supporting empirical evidence (image source), or now, even a credible theory.

A team of NOAA researchers has recently completed a new analysis and have now conceived a new "consensus" science: global warming will cause less storms to strike the U.S.

Wang et al. analyzed the Atlantic Warming Pool (AWP) history and determined that when it was warmer and larger, the AWP birthed hurricanes that were farther from U.S. shores and less likely to strike the Atlantic coasts. Ergo, global warming may indeed cause larger storms but they would dissipate over open waters before reaching U.S.

"For this investigation, Wang and colleagues divided the observed history of Atlantic tropical cyclones (since 1970) into years with large AWPs and those with small AWPs and then tallied up within each division storm characteristics such as number and tracking tendency. What they found was that large AWPs were associated with more storms, but—and this is important—storms which preferentially stayed off-shore and did not make landfall along the U.S. coast. In other words, the hurricanes which formed became less menacing...as the AWP increased in size it made conditions more favorable for tropical cyclone formation and growth further out in the Atlantic Ocean. And at the same time, it altered the atmospheric circulation patterns over the central Atlantic Ocean such that the storms which did form were steered more northward into the open Atlantic and away from the U.S. mainland." [Chunzai Wang, Hailong Liu, Sang-Ki Lee, Robert Atlas 2011: Geophysical Research Letters]

Previous hurricane-cyclone, failed-prediction and peer-reviewed postings. List of past extreme, severe weather events.

November 17, 2011 at 05:41 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Calling Kevin Trenberth: New Tropical Cyclone Research From China Reveals Major IPCC Prediction Fail

Read here. Kevin Trenberth, a prominent IPCC "expert" deeply involved in the Climategate scandal, has long promulgated the IPCC prediction that CO2-induced global warming will cause an increase in tropical cyclones/hurricanes. Trenberth even doubles-down by stating that all modern severe weather events are the result of "unequivocal" global warming. Unfortunately for Trenberth and the IPCC, the overwhelming, unequivocally growing evidence documents well that cyclones/hurricanes have not increased as predicted.

First, as all know to be the case (click on adjacent image to enlarge), Trenberth is truth-challenged in public regarding the supposed "unequivocal" global warming claim (he sings a mightily different tune in private conversations). As the IPCC's gold-standard HadCRUT empirical evidence shows, accelerated global warming has disappeared over the last 15 years.

This evidence is irrefutable, yet Trenberth continues to claim global warming is "unequivocal" despite other climate alarmists giving up the ghost of AGW and are now producing research trying to explain the disappearance of global warming. (One would guess that this disturbing and consistent lack of stating the fundamental climate truth by Trenberth has to be a pathological disorder of some kind.)

Now in addition to the amazing disregard of actual global temperatures, a new study by Ying et al. determines that the empirical evidence proves that the China region has not experienced an increase of tropical cyclones over the last 50 years, which corroborates the vast majority of studies on this subject, globally. Thus, Ternberth's beliefs and predictions are again eviscerated by the cruel empirical scientific process - and the same holds true for the IPCC as well.

"The authors write that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001, 2007) has twice suggested that "precipitation and extreme winds associated with tropical cyclones may have become more intense." However, they note that this dual claim is "mainly based on numerical models,"...Working with tropical cyclone (TC) best track and related observational severe wind and precipitation datasets created by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration...report that over the past half-century there have been no changes in the frequency of TC occurrence...they say that "during the past 50 years, there have been no significant trends in the days of TC...that "the seasonal rhythm of the TC influence on China also has not changed."...found that "the maximum sustained winds of TCs affecting the whole of China and all sub-regions have decreasing trends."...state that "the trends of extreme storm precipitation and 1-hour precipitation were all insignificant."" [Ming Ying, YuHua Yang, BaoDe Chen, Wei Zhang 2011: Science China Earth Sciences]

Previous failed-prediction, severe-weather and peer-reviewed postings. Fabricated-fake and modern temperature charts. A large list of severe-weather events.

November 04, 2011 at 05:43 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Another Day, Another Study, Another Failed IPCC Prediction: Modern Global Warming Has Not Caused Increase of Severe Floods

Read here. The Climategate scientists of the IPCC predicted that modern global warming would cause an increase of severe floods, as did the IPCC climate models. But when the science is objectively analyzed and the empirical evidence crunched, this prediction fails as so many before it.

Researchers Hirsch and Ryberg examine the U.S. evidence from a period of 85 to 127 years and conclude there is no significant relationship between the growth of atmospheric CO2 levels (that causes modern AGW) and annual floods.

"...shows that flooding has not increased in the United States over records of 85 to 127 years. This adds to a pile of research that shows similar results around the world. This result is of course consistent with our work that shows that increasing damage related to weather extremes can be entirely explained by societal changes, such as more property in harm's way. In fact, in the US flood damage has decreased dramatically as a fraction of GDP, which is exactly whet you get if GDP goes up and flooding does not." [R. M. Hirsch, K. R. Ryberg 2011: Hydrological Sciences Journal]

Previous flood-drought, severe-weather, failed-prediction and peer-reviewed postings.

October 29, 2011 at 08:23 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Climate Alarmists Suffer Severe Defeat: Recent Extreme Winters Primarily Due To Low Solar Output, Not CO2 Warming

Read here. The climate alarmism bozos/bimbos brigade (Al Gore, Kevin Trenberth, John Cook, Joe Romm, Heidi Cullen, Bill McKibben, Michael Mann, Bill Nye, Jeff Masters and etc.) has claimed that past severe winter conditions were the result of CO2-induced global warming. They did so without a sliver of scientific proof nor empirical evidence.

As the general public deduced, the brigade's claim that extreme winter conditions are being caused by "global warming" is a complete crock. And to the major chagrin of the likes of Kevin Trenberth, the climate modelers are now pointing their collective fingers at the real culprit - the sun. Losing the public and climate/solar science debate both - Ouch!

The team of Ineson et al. determined that a strong solar signal (positive or negative) will cause significant changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation. The NAO change produces affects on the winter circulation patterns resulting in a dearth or abundance of Northern Hemisphere severe winter storms. Using climate models, they established a firm relationship between solar maximum/minimum and the change in the NAO.

"A research team...primarily made up of scientists from the U.K.’s Hadley Centre Met Office have identified a fairly strong solar signal in Northern Hemisphere winter circulation patterns which are manifest over Europe and the eastern United States. According to their modeling studies, the difference in the amount of incoming solar radiation, in this case, primarily in the ultraviolet (UV) wavelengths, during the minima and maxima of the 11-yr solar cycle are large enough to produce a characteristic change in the winter circulation pattern of the atmosphere over North America...When the NAO is in its negative phase, more cold air can seep south from the Arctic and impact the lower latitudes of Europe and the eastern U.S., which helps spin up winter storm systems. For instance, during the “snowmageddon” winter of 2009/2010, the NAO was at a near record low value..."Given our modelling result, these cold winters were probably exacerbated by the recent prolonged and anomalously low solar minimum. On decadal timescales the increase in the NAO from the 1960s to 1990s…may also be partly explained by the upwards trend in solar activity evident in the open solar-flux record…."" [Sarah Ineson, Adam A. Scaife, Jeff R. Knight, James C. Manners, Nick J. Dunstone, Lesley J. Gray, Joanna D. Haigh 2011: Nature Geoscience]

Previous severe-weather, solar-cosmic and peer-reviewed postings. A list of past severe weather events.

October 26, 2011 at 09:01 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Severe Cyclones Striking Australia Declines By 60% - Exact Opposite of IPCC Climate Model Predictions

Read here. The climate predictions of the IPCC, its climate models and "experts," such as Al Gore, Kevin Trenberth, John Cook, Joe Romm, Heidi Cullen, Bill McKibben, Michael Mann, Bill Nye and Jeff Masters have been robustly abysmal. As the world struggles with unprecedented and severe financial and economic disasters, the shrill, self-centered, non-scientific incompetence of climate science alarmism continues to be shouted by egotistical personalities regardless of the scientific evidence.

These deniers/liars of past extreme climate change are the same ones whom have long predicted that human CO2-induced global warming would cause more severe tropical cyclones and hurricanes. Fortunately for the rest of us, these deniers/liars have been spectacularly wrong, as the latest peer-reviewed study makes clear.

Researchers used a new updated database of cyclone activity for the Australian region and determined that eastern Australia has experienced a 62% decline in severe cyclone strikes since the 1870's. All alarmists and IPCC computer predicted the opposite.

"The authors note that several studies have raised concerns that tropical cyclones, or TCs -- and especially the severe ones -- "have become more frequent in many places in response to global warming," citing Emanuel (2005) and Webster et al. (2005). In addition, Callaghan and Power write that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, highlights several studies that conclude that "tropical cyclones are likely to become more intense in the future in response to global warming," citing Alley et al. (2007)...developed and used "a new data base of severe land-falling TCs for eastern Australia derived from numerous historical sources, that has taken over a decade to develop."...new data base allows them "to document changes over much longer periods than has been done previously for the Southern Hemisphere,"...they report that "the sign and magnitude of trends calculated over 30 years periods vary substantially," highlighting the fact that "caution needs to be taken in making inferences based on e.g. satellite era data only." And second, they report that "the linear trend in the number of severe TCs making land-fall over eastern Australia declined from about 0.45 TC/year in the early 1870s to about 0.17 TC/year in recent times -- a 62% decline."" [Jeff Callaghan, Scott B. Power 2011: Climate Dynamics]

Previous hurricane-cyclone, severe-weather, failed-prediction and peer-reviewed postings. A severe-weather chronological list. Severe-weather charts.

October 20, 2011 at 04:07 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

World's Best Scientific Research Determines Zero Connection Between Global Warming and Hurricanes & Cyclones

Read here. Fanatical global warming alarmists, such as Al Gore, have aggressively publicized extreme green/left/liberal catastrophic scenarios over the past decade. These predicted catastrophic scenarios are then widely disseminated, and popularized, by the mainstream media and Hollywood in an attempt to bias both policymakers and the public.

Unfortunately for the likes of Al Gore and the MSM, the predicted catastrophic scenarios, such as an increased frequency of severe hurricanes and cyclones, keep proving to be nothing more than wild, exaggerated speculation.

A comprehensive review of the world's best, recently published peer reviewed research, by scientist Jonathon Nott, determined the Al Gore/IPCC's Climategate science speculation that global warming would cause an increase of catastrophic hurricanes and cyclones is not supported by any empirical evidence. Ergo, the green alarmist prediction of increased CO2 emissions causing more hurricanes from global warming is baseless.

"...the Australian researcher reports that "recent analyses of corrected historical TC records suggest that there are no definitive trends towards an increase in the frequency of high-intensity TCs for the Atlantic Ocean region (Knutson et al., 2010), the northwest Pacific (Chan, 2006; Kossin et al., 2007) and the Australian region, South Pacific and south Indian oceans (Kuleshov et al., 2010)." He notes, however, that "over multi-century to millennial timescales, substantial change has occurred in virtually all TC-generating regions of the globe," with "alternating periods of lesser and greater activity," writing that "the longer, coarser-resolution records display periods from multi-century to over a millennium in length, whereas the higher-resolution records register multi-decadal to centennial-length periodicities." In some of these cases, Nott says that (1) "different climate states, such as periods dominated by El Niños and La Niñas, appear to be responsible for the TC variability." In other cases, he says the responsible factor seems to be (2) shifts in the position of the jet stream, (3) solar variability, or (4) some unknown cause." [Jonathon Nott 2011: Journal of Quaternary Science]

Previous failed-prediction, hurricane-cyclone-tornado and peer-reviewed postings.

October 12, 2011 at 01:01 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Australian Study Proves Major IPCC Failure: Climate Models Predicted An Increase In Severe Weather - Didn't Happen

Read here. After last week's spectacularly lame, 24-hour Gore "climate reality" circus, now comes new research that just mocks the hysterical Gore-science spewed out last week.

The IPCC climate models, and Nobel 'Gore-science,' contend that severe weather has increased because of CO2-induced global warming. Li et al. chose to investigate this prediction and researched severe weather events for the Perth, Australia region. They discovered no trend in severe weather frequency, which contradicts the IPCC/Gore prediction.

"Citing "unprecedented public concern" with respect to the impacts of climate change, Li et al. (2011) set out to examine the variability and trends of storminess for the region of the Perth metropolitan coast of Australia. To do so, they conducted an extensive set of analyses using observations of wave, wind, air pressure, and water level over the period 1994-2008. The results of their analysis, in their view, should serve "to validate or invalidate the climate change hypothesis" that rising CO2 concentrations are increasing the frequency and severity of storms...all storm indices showed significant interannual variability over the period of record, but "no evidence of increasing (decreasing) trends in extreme storm power was identified to validate the wave climate change hypotheses for the Perth region." [Fangjun Li, Lucya Roncevich, Charlie Bicknell, Reena Lowry, and Karl Ilich 2011: Journal of Coastal Research]

The IPCC, and publicity oriented propaganda-scientists, such as Al Gore and Kevin Trenberth, should be muzzled by the scientific community as they both continue to do significant and robust damage to the reputation and credibility of science in general.

Additional severe-weather, failed-predictions and peer-reviewed postings. Severe-weather charts.

September 20, 2011 at 12:01 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

In Anticipation Of The Gore 'Lie-A-Thon' - Severe Weather Reality From The 1950s, 1960s & 1970s

The Al Gore climate propaganda machine will be in full swing for 24 hours starting September 14. His objective is to convince people that recent severe weather events are a result of global warming and climate change, supposedly caused by human CO2 emissions.

Unfortunately for Al Gore and his warming fundamentalist followers, severe weather events happen regardless of human CO2. The extreme weather events of the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s provide ample evidence that the higher levels of 2011 atmospheric CO2 are irrelevant.

Below is a list of severe weather incidents (and other items of interest) that took place during the 50s, 60s and 70s. These terrible and destructive events occurred well before the current decade's hysteria about CO2 emissions. These events represent empirical evidence (reality) that refutes Al Gore's type of climate science.

The expanded severe weather list can be found here.

1950: Floods In Brazil & Ecuador Take 150 Lives - Train Plunges Off Washed-Out Bridge

1950: Hurricane Sweeps Along New England Coast - 60 MPH Winds, Mountainous Waves

1950: 1,000 Villages In Pakistan Destroyed By Flooding

1950: Cold Wind And Dust Storm Sweep Over Bombay, India

1950: Record Rain In Queensland, Australia

1950: Minnesota, N. Dakota & Nebraska Regions Swamped By Flooding

1950: Oregon Heat Wave Breaks Temperature Records

1950: Oklahoma's 'Dust Bowl' Region Struck By New Drought

1950: Nine Die In Midwest Dust Storm

1950: 3rd Dust Storm This Year Strikes Wheat States

1950: Scientists Find Earth Warming, And Glaciers Melting

1950: Eroding Beaches In Australia Due to Rapid Sea Level Rises

1950: Rapid Warming In Greenland - Sea Temperatures Up By Several Degrees

1950: Six Nations Send Scientists To Arctic To Investigate Glacier & Ice Cap Melting

1950: Scientist Says Sidney, Australia Climate Getting Hotter

1951: MIT Scientist Correctly Predicts Global Cooling – Based On Sunspots, Not CO2

1951: Bone-Dry Texas Swelters From Heatwave

1951: Bakersfield, California Life Halted Due To Blinding Dust Storm

1951: Warming of Greenland & Melting Exposes Medieval Farm-Homes Buried Under Ice For Centuries

1951: Hurricane Level Winds Lash America's Midwest - Flash Floods, Snow & Heat Wave!

1951: Mississippi River Reaches Highest Level For 107 Years

Continue reading "In Anticipation Of The Gore 'Lie-A-Thon' - Severe Weather Reality From The 1950s, 1960s & 1970s " »

September 13, 2011 at 06:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Hurricanes & Tropical Storms: Newest Research Finds Cyclonic Events Unrelated To Warmer Temperatures

Read here. The IPCC Climategate "scientists" and the likes of Al Gore have long predicted that cyclone activity (hurricanes, tropical storms, etc.) would increase in frequency from global warming. This highly acclaimed prediction has been a spectacular failure and embarrassment to alarmists though, as the latest research reveals.

Dr. Ryan Maue's peer reviewed study confirms what objective scientists have been stating: recent cyclonic activity is at its lowest level, not its highest, in spite of CO2-induced warming.

"The U.S. researcher reports that "in the pentad since 2006, Northern Hemisphere and global tropical cyclone ACE has decreased dramatically to the lowest levels since the late 1970s," and he also finds that "the global frequency of tropical cyclones has reached a historical low." Some details of note include the fact that "a total of 69 TCs were counted during calendar year 2010, the fewest observed in the past 40 years with reliable frequency data," as well as the fact that over that same four-decade period, "12-month running-sums of the number of global TCs of at least tropical storm force has averaged 87," while "the minimum number of 64 TCs was recently tallied through May 2011."...""there is no significant linear trend in the frequency of global TCs," in agreement with the analysis of Wang et al. (2010), plus the fact that the earth is experiencing "this current period of record inactivity,"" [Ryan N. Maue 2011: Geophysical Research Letters]

September 13, 2011 at 07:17 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Is It Time For Kevin Trenberth To Resign? How Much More Harm Will He Do To Science & Peer Reviewed Journals?

That great climate "scientist," whose political hack and anti-science behavior is widely condoned by the scientific "elite" establishment, is at it again. Kevin Trenberth has forced the editor of a science journal not only to resign his position, but to personally write Trenberth a humiliating apology note. Why?

Read here and here. Trenberth, and his IPCC Climategate comrades, did not like the fact that said editor allowed an article to be published in the Remote Sensing journal without his approval.

Of course, we've written about Trenberth before, not in the kindest terms. To our way of thinking, he is the epitome of a political hack scientist performing mediocre science, using his position of power to destroy reputations and lives of those who challenge his scientific opinions - hey, his most recent actions are living proof of that and are robustly indisputable.

Read here. To be fair, in terms of CO2-climate science how good is Trenberth? Does the benefit of his CO2-climate science skill/capabilities outweigh the costs of his poisonous, unprofessional and ugly behavior in the realm of science?

Well, he's the one, long on record, saying additional CO2 emissions would increase the frequency and intensity of severe weather events. And, as with almost all his climate predictions and speculation, Trenberth has been wrong (as shown in the below charts - click on images to enlarge). Ergo, his climate science skill is at best mediocre.




		All images from JoNova site. Arrows added by 'C3'. As clearly shown, the increase of CO2 emissions has not caused Trenberth's predicted increase in severe weather frequency and intensity.

Trenberth even confirmed the bogosity of his brand of IPCC "climate science" with his infamous "travesty" comment in the Climategate emails regarding the lack of global warming. His mediocrity as a climate scientist is readily apparent, from even his own lips.

Speaking of resignations, reflecting back on the last few years, is it time for Trenberth to resign his American taxpayer funded position because of his personal vendettas against those he disagrees with? Is it time for Trenberth to resign because of the irreparable harm he is doing to the general science community's reputation with his bizarre, ego-driven behavior?

Is it finally time for Trenberth to apologize to the American taxpayer for being such an incompetent climate scientist? (In all honesty, a freaking Ouija board would produce better results than Trenberth et al., without a hint of the viciousness and ugliness.)

September 06, 2011 at 07:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Latest EU Research Confirms That Predicted Increase In Storminess From Global Warming Has Not Occurred

Read here. The IPCC and its Climategate scientists predicted that global warming would increase the frequency and intensity of stormy weather. They based these predictions on their "expert" climate models. The prediction fails the empirical test as real world evidence confirms that storminess has not increased.

Esteves et al. studied long term datasets of weather data for the Irish Sea region going back to 1894. Their peer reviewed research found no change for storminess.

"Focusing on a well-studied and data-rich 16-km-long section of the Sefton coastline of northwest England, as they describe it, Esteves et al. used the longest available measured datasets from the eastern Irish Sea and beyond -- including tide levels, surge heights, wind speeds and wave heights -- in a search for evidence of long-term changes...say their results "show no evidence of enhanced storminess or increases in surge heights or extreme water levels," and that "the evolution of the coastline analyzed at various temporal scales shows no strong connection with metocean trends."...the available metocean data "do not indicate any statistically significant changes outside seasonal and decadal cycles."" [L. S. Esteves, J. J. Williams, J. M. Brown 2011: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences]

Previous failed-prediction, severe-weather and peer-reviewed postings. Listing of severe weather events. Severe weather charts.

August 31, 2011 at 04:56 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Jeff Masters & Bill McKibben Wow Their Audiences With Exceptional Hurricane Ignorance

Read here. Hurricane scientist expert (PhD) Ryan Maue takes two climate alarmists to task for their non-scientific ramblings information regarding Hurricane Irene. Bill McKibben is your typical green leftist crackpot eccentric who is now blaming both a pipeline and President Obama for the hurricane, along with, of course, global warming.

The good news for Obama is that McKibben, the nutjob eccentric, can't blame him for past significant hurricanes that struck NYC during these years:

September 23, 1875
August 19, 1788
October 9, 1804
September 16, 1816
September 3, 1821
October 13, 1846
October 6, 1849
October 28, 1872

Jeff Masters, a meteorologist with a bent to blaming every weather event on global warming, chose to make some extreme claims about hot ocean temperatures that are...er....well, bizarre for someone with a science background.

"Masters is quoted that “bizarrely high” SSTs along Irene’s path will cause Irene to be a much wetter and apparently longer-lasting hurricane that normal. This assertion is true if “all else is equal”. However, before attributing the “anomalous SST” to global warming, one must control all other variables in this complex situation. That requires considerable sensitivity research with state-of-the art numerical weather prediction (and climate) models...This hand-waving theory may not hold up when a rigorous scientific hypothesis is tested, yet McKibben does not provide a citation or reference aside from Masters’ quotations, which are not peer-reviewed in the slightest."

And of course, there is then the whole issue of "global warming" being the cause, which Masters and McKibben then conveniently ignore the actual global temperature record for the last 15 years. Looking at the real global temperatures shown in this chart, it begs the question of these two hacks exceptional human beings, "what global warming?".

August 26, 2011 at 05:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Severe Weather In The Far East & Pacific Regions Has Declined Over The Last 50 Years, Scientists Confirm

Read here. The UN's IPCC and associated climate alarmist scientists predicted that severe weather would increase globally as a result of human-caused global warming. Three new peer reviewed studies, representing the large expanse of the Australia-Asia region, determined that cyclone and tropical storm occurrence has actually declined over modern era, post WWII.

Simple summary: The IPCC, its climate "experts" and their predictions were wrong, again.

"These three studies provide even more evidence (as if any more is even required) that shows that claims that hurricane activity is increasing are completely at odds with a plethora of findings reporting on observations collected from throughout the world."

Jeff Callaghan, Scott B. Power 2010: Climate Dynamics

Ki-Seon Choi, Baek-Jo Kim, Do-Woo Kim, Hi-Ryong Byun 2010: International Journal of Climatology

Jin‐Jie Song, Yuan Wang, and Liguang Wu 2010: Journal of Geophysical Research

Previous severe-weather, failed-predictions and peer-reviewed postings.

August 19, 2011 at 07:01 PM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

7,000 Year Study of Mediterranean Storms: Global Warming Decreases Severe Storm Activity

Read here. (h/t Greenie Watch) The Mediterranean Sea basin is considered one ot the more vulnerable to climate change, which is a major concern since the IPCC climate models predict that global warming will result in more frequent storm activity. To test this prediction, EU researchers analyzed 7,000 years of data from sediment cores from southern France's coastal region.

Sabatier et al. analysis establishes the history of severe storm activity, which firmly indicates that severe stroms were more frequent during global cooling (ie. The Little Ice Age) than during global warming spans, such as the Medieval Warming Period.

As is often the case, the empirical evidence refutes the IPCC climate model predictions.

"This paper present a high resolution record of paleostorm events in the French Mediterrannean coast over the past 7000 years based on a long sediment core from lagoonal environment in Gulf of Lions...we have recorded seven periods of increase in storm activity at 6200, 5400, 4600-4200, 3600-3100, 2600, 1900-1500 yr cal B.P. and over the Little Ice Age...Whereas the Medieval Warm Period (1200-700 yr cal B.P.) is characterized by a low storm activity. These evidences of changes in coastal hydrodynamic are in phase with those observed over the North Atlantic and correspond to Holocene cooling evidenced associated to decreases of SST in the North Atlantic." [Pierre Sabatier, Laurent Dezileau, Christophe Colin, Louis Briqueu, Philippe Martinez, Giuseppe Siani, Frédérique Bouchette, Olivier Raynal, Ulrich Von Grafenstein 2011: International Union for Quaternary Research]

Previous failed-prediction, severe-weather and peer-reviewed postings.

August 14, 2011 at 04:43 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Modern Drought Pales To Medieval Drought Across Southwest U.S. & Mexico Scientists Conclude

Read here. Droughts are a frequent visitor to the southwest U.S. and Mexico regions. The current drought that this area is experiencing is bad but in no way is it as extreme as the droughts that took place during the Medieval era.

As the chart reveals, both the Medieval and modern periods share a characteristic of high incoming solar irradiance. With the increase of incoming solar energy, the result is time spans of frequent and more intense droughts. These more extreme droughts occur naturally and have nothing to do with greenhouse gases, including CO2 emissions.

There are some scientists who predict we are entering a stage where 60-year droughts, like those during the Medieval Period, could occur but no one knows for sure. If solar irradiance falls (as it seems to be doing most recently), the modern drought cycle may end.

Woodhouse et al. published this 1,200 year perspective of Southwestern North America droughts:

"The medieval period was characterized by widespread and regionally severe, sustained drought in western North America. Proxy data documenting drought indicate centuries-long periods of increased aridity across the central and western U.S...The recent drought, thus far, pales hydrologically in comparison... Spatially, the mid-12th century drought covers all of the western U.S. and northern Mexico...whereas the 21st century drought has not impacted parts of the Pacific Northwest...The 21st century drought has lasted about a decade so far, whereas the 12th century medieval drought persisted with an extent and severity...for two decades, 1140–1159 [AD]...In both instrumental and paleoclimatic records, periods of sustained drought in the Southwest have often been concurrent with elevated temperatures. The warmest such episode, in the mid-12th century, was more extensive and much more persistent than any modern drought experienced to date..." [Connie A. Woodhouse, David M. Meko, Glen M. MacDonald, Dave W. Stahle, Edward R. Cooke 2009: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences]

Previous drought/flood and peer-reviewed postings. List of severe weather events. Severe weather charts.

August 13, 2011 at 11:01 AM | Permalink | TrackBack (0)