The answers: Nope; Nope; Nope; Nope; and Nope...and the questions: "Does CO2 regulate global temperatures?"; "Does CO2 perform as global warming control knob?"; "Does CO2 act like the world's thermostat?"; "Does CO2 cause rapid and dangerous global warming?"; and, "Does CO2 produce accelerating global temps?" - the recent satellite empirical evidence provides the answers, much to the chagrin of the climate-doomsday cult proponents.....
(click on chart to enlarge)
This chart plots the global warming trends versus CO2 growth trends over a wide variety of time periods (last 30 years through the last 10 years, as of 10/31/2014).
As one can easily discern, while CO2 growth is exploding up, global temperature trends are collapsing over the same time.
In essence, the warming temperature trends have decelerated into cooling trends.
Visually, it is clear that modern CO2 growth has affected temperatures contrary to the predictions of the IPCC and AGW alarmists. In fact, the correlation between the CO2 and temp trends is negative.
Simply put, the trace gas CO2 does not regulate temperature; it does not act like a control knob or thermostat; and the greater growth in CO2 levels has not caused accelerated, dangerous warming.
Those are the stubborn facts. And it does not matter how many IPCC climate "experts" claim that CO2 is a 'control knob' or how many computer virtual simulations predict future dangerous temperatures based on CO2 being a 'regulator.' The climate reality of satellite empirical evidence falsifies those wildly speculative claims.
And it's not just the satellite empirical evidence that reveals the ongoing CO2/temperature disconnect.
Note: Download the source RSS and CO2 datasets. Excel used to make calculations, per century trends (slope function), and chart. Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
Well...er...be happy, unless the long-term global temperature deceleration continues into a miserable and dangerous global cooling situation...as the GISS (NASA) empirical evidence indicates, CO2-caused "catastrophic" global warming is an absolute non-issue..... (click on below chart to enlarge)
What happens when one plots the GISS global temperature and CO2 trends for the long-term periods ending September 30, 1999 and September 30, 2014?
Yes, one gets the above two charts, revealing interesting, empirical climate science truths, such as:
1. The chart on the left (for periods ending Sept. 1999) reveals an acceleration of global warming trends, while the CO2 growth trends (see black dotted curve) across periods were fairly stable.
2. The chart on the right (for periods ending Sept. 2014) reveals a deceleration of global temperature change that over the 'last 10 years' reached a very slight global cooling status; yet, as can be seen, the CO2 growth trend was accelerating, reaching a rate robustly greater than those periods ending in 1999.
3. Other than a single datapoint (blue column), all the long-term temperature trends for the left chart exhibit warming greater than 1.5 degrees per century; in contrast, the majority of trends (blue columns) for the right chart are below 1.5 degree per century, despite faster CO2 growth and the associated higher atmospheric CO2 levels.
4. Rapid, dangerous, scary, undeniable, indisputable, irreversible, accelerating and catastrophic global warming claims made by various politicians, scientists, bureaucrats, celebrities and "journalists" are unequivocal lies. Long-term global temperature trends below 2 degrees (and going lower) are clearly the opposite of those widely-used, deceptive descriptors.
5. If it was not obvious before, CO2 is not a global "control knob" nor some type of "planet thermostat" - CO2 does not have much, if any, influence on temperature trends.
6. Confirming what climate skeptics (often called "deniers" for denigration purposes) have been stating for the last several decades, the climate changes constantly, primarily from natural forces. As a result, global temperature trends change frequently, exhibiting both cooling and warming modes across time spans.
We call it 'natural' climate change and ancient and historical climate records are replete with it. It happens often and, my goodness, it can be really extreme.
Now some caveats. The charts display a wide variety of temperature trends - they are not predictions for the future. They represent a snapshot in time and can change quickly.
One cannot conclude from the right chart that global temperatures will continue to decelerate into a glacial freezer. That would be exactly the same mistake that the climate "experts" made with the chart on the left - concluding that the temperature trends would just keep accelerating until hellish warmth would end-civilization-as-we-know-it.
And, these two charts cannot be used to claim that humans have no influence on global temperatures. Besides emissions of greenhouse gases, humans are constantly changing their environment which does have an impact (e.g. turning a corn field into an asphalt parking lot or massive deforestation in the world's major tropical rainforests or laying down a carpet of black soot on ice sheets).
Putting aside any further caveats, as an added bonus, the charts can be used to identify climate-liars. These are personalities and organizations that would never publish temperature charts as seen here. Instead, they resort to visual or verbal representations that today, or this month, or this year was the 'warmest' ever. This is not only the worst kind of cherry-picking, it is also incredibly lame.
Since the Little Ice Age (LIA), the world has been warming. It will continue to do so. Thus, we are going to keep experiencing warm(er) and warm(est) events - it's a no-brainer due to natural warming rebound. It will only stop happening when the world enters another mini ice age or worse. Those are the stubborn facts, which essentially makes CO2's trivial influence irrelevant.
When one hears the 'warmest' or 'warmer' refrains, that is when it becomes apparent one is in the company of a climate deception-meister.
Finally, let's all hope the global temperature deceleration shown on the right-most chart stops before it gets really ugly.
Note: Temperature dataset and CO2 dataset used to produce Excel charts and 2nd order fitted trend of the trends. Excel's slope function was used to caluclate each period's trend, then multipled by 1200 to produce a per century trend. Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
The well documented 'pause' for the global warming trend over the last 15+ years has generated over 50 hypothetical science explanations...the latest cloud coverage analysis appears to be a better explanation.....
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Greenhouse gases, including CO2, looking less and less the major drivers of global temperatures and climate change.
When objective (non-IPCC) science research is done, without the political agenda, Earth's climate seems dominated by natural forces.
From 1950 to 1987 a strong relationship existed between the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and HadCRUT4 global average temperature anomaly, interrupted occasionally by volcanic eruptions. After 1987 the relationship diverged, with temperature anomaly increasing more than expected, but was re-established after 1997 at an offset of ~0.48°C higher. The period of increased warming from 1987 to 1997 loosely coincided with the divergence of the global average temperature anomalies over land, which are derived from observation station recordings, and the global average anomalies in sea surface temperatures. Land-based temperatures averaged 0.04°C below sea temperatures for the period 1950 to 1987 but after 1997 averaged 0.41°C above sea temperatures. The increase in the global average temperature anomaly and the divergence of land and sea surface temperatures also coincided with two significant changes in global average cloud cover. Total cloud cover decreased during the period from 1987 to 1997 and, for most of the remainder of the period from 1984 to 2009, decreases in low-level cloud were accompanied by increases in middle and upper level cloud. These changes can be found in both global average cloud cover and in each of the six 30°C-latitude bands. The impact of these changes in cloud cover can account for the variations in HadCRUT4 global average temperature anomalies and the divergence between land and sea temperatures.
If CO2-induced climate change is defined as extreme weather disasters, then recent years are proving to be a bust...likewise, the much feared rapid and ferocious global warming predicted - from CO2, of course - has turned into an insignificant pussy cat, per the GISS/NASA climate records.....
(click on chart to enlarge)
By year 2050, how much warmer will it be?
As the climate "experts" and $billion$ computer models have proven decisively, they are completely clueless when it comes to predicting future global temperatures.
Fifteen years ago, this graph's red curve, representing temperature trends, was tracking right along with the CO2 grey curve - such that, as of the end of September 1999, the 10-year temp trend was on a 2050AD warming pace of +1.1ºC.
But as the adjacent chart now reveals, by end of September 2014, that previous +1.1ºC trend has changed to a -0.03ºC cooling trend despite the continuous acceleration of atmospheric CO2 levels. A powerful testament to the overwhelming significance of natural climate change that far exceeds the influence of of a trace gas such as CO2.
And remember, not a single IPCC or NASA/GISS "expert" predicted this outcome - just the opposite in fact.
As the graph's red plot depicts, global warming trends have been on a deceleration path for an extended period, indicating a strong likelihood that global warming by 2050 will be nowhere close to he current official predictions.
Did we mention 'pussy cat' warming yet?
Obviously, the "settled" science of slam-dunk global warming is in shambles. And natural climate change made it so, much to the chagrin of those elites pushing "consensus" anthropogenic dogma.
Without doubt, in the scheme of urgent, priority issues facing the nation - global warming ain't one of them, which the American public already knows and reflects.
Climate change, as represented by global cooling and global warming trends, is in a constant flux...the IPCC's gold-standard temperature dataset provides the empirical proof that a natural cycle of ups and downs is the reality - past, present & future.....
(click on graph to enlarge)
How much global warming (or cooling) will take place by 2050AD?
The flat-out, scientific truth is that nobody really knows. Not the IPCC. Not the climate models. Not the experts. And certainly not the green crony-facilitators, Naomi Klein and Bill McKibben (fyi...crony Al Gore just loves them to death.)
This chart plotting the IPCC's gold-standard (HC4) of global temperature trends, of past and present, reveals why it is so incredibly difficult to predict climate change, be it of short or long-term nature. Climate change is constantly happening - going from one warming acceleration to the next cooling acceleration extreme, rather rapidly.
And note, this takes place regardless of atmospheric CO2 levels (see black curve), and associated human CO2 emissions. Clearly, the skyrocketing CO2 levels since the 1950's are not responsible for such wide variance in temperature trends, since they can even be observed a century before.
In fact, based on a visual inspection, one could surmise that climate change extreme trends have lessened since the modern increase of CO2 levels.
As can be seen, shorter cooling/warming trends have been highly variable from the very start of recording instrumentally-measured "global" temperatures. The light red (12-mth) and green (60-mth) plots readily show this.
So, when did the greatest acceleration of warming trends take place? Amazingly, all the warming spikes that matched or equaled ±20°C took place (see yellow-tinted boxes) prior to the last 40 years of massive human CO2 emissions.
Regarding the 10, 20 and 30-year climate change variability, there is no question that the wild and natural extremes of the short-term always return to a rather mundane long-term variability. The dark blue, cyan and bright red plots indicate long-term climate change that is...well...pretty mundane.
Compared to a 12-month climate change extreme trend of +25.0°C reached in 1878, the 30-year trend extreme only reached a maximum of +0.72°C (during 2003) and has now been reduced to a August 2014 30-year trend of 0.61°C - and relative to the 1940's, that's a trend only eight-hundredths of a degree greater.
Conclusion: Climate change never stops. Whether short-term or long-term, global temperature trends constantly accelerate/decelerate. Human CO2 emissions have nothing to do with this extreme variability - it is a natural phenomenon that is chaotic, totally unpredictable and unstoppable. The climate change indicated by today's temperature trends is insignificantly different than the past climate change. And those are the stubborn facts.
Note: Linear temperature trends do not represent predictions (any trend today can be drastically different in the future). Excel's slope function was used to calculate the moving trends for each time span (by month) and to plot them. To calculate the trends by 2050AD, the derived slope for each month and each time-span trend was multiplied by 424 months (after August 2014, there are only 424 full months until January 1, 2050AD). HadCRUT4 global dataset and CO2 (ppm) datasets used for chart can be found here.
Ahhh, those stubborn facts...it's now been two decades+ that the public has been warned about the existing dangerous and rapidly accelerating global temperatures...a warming that was supposed to produce catastrophic doomsday climate changes...except it hasn't happened, which the gold-standard of global surface temperatures document.....
(click on chart to enlarge)
Has two-decades worth of cumulative CO2 growth in the atmosphere caused the "experts'" predicted dangerous and rapidly accelerating global warming?
That's the straight-forward question.
And the straight-forward answer is?
Well, despite all that CO2 growth, global warming has slowed to a creep on the Earth's surface, and in the atmosphere, global warming has flat-lined.
Using the IPCC's gold-standard global surface dataset (the UK's HadCRUT4), this chart plots the cumulative growth in temperature along with NOAA's reported cumulative growth in atmospheric CO2 levels (ppm).
For CO2 (grey curve), there is a clear and consistent upward growth of CO2 levels - unrelenting would be an apt description. In contrast, global temperatures are all over the map, with highs and low being constantly...er, variable.
The end results over the 20 years ending August 2014 are fairly obvious:
The visual relationship between CO2 and global temperatures appears to be very weak; in fact, statistically the r2 is 0.19, which can be interpreted as being close to a zilch relationship.
Per both the 2nd order fitted trend (blue curve) and the 36-month moving average (red curve), the deceleration of the global warming trend and a plateauing can easily be seen.
Over the 20 years, there have been exceptional warm(-est!) months/years, often followed by exceptional cool months/years.
And since September 1994, the exhibited warming trend amounts to a measly increase of a non-doomsday +0.38°C by year 2050AD.
How easy is it to say, three times quickly?: catastrophe-climate-doomsday-cult-is-discredited.
So, does all the above empirical evidence mean that human CO2 has no impact on global temperatures? Nope. Does it mean the world will no longer warm? Does it mean humans don't have an impact on continuous natural climate change? Nope. Does it mean that the world should quit trying to be energy and carbon efficient? Not at all.
What it does mean, though, is that the public and the policymakers were greatly deceived by the "consensus" science and computer models that loudly declared (and btw, still do) imminent disasters and doomsday global warming.
As the current climate conditions now indicate a slow, creeping climate change scenario, it provides policymakers and the public the luxury of time to continue moving to a more carbon-efficient economy, thus improving the environment without needlessly sacrificing quality of life and living standards.
In summary, it's another case of those stubborn facts: the empirical evidence does not lie; but computer models and "experts" do.
Note: Download HC4 and CO2 datasets. Excel used to make calculations, trends and chart. The chart covers 240 monthly records, starting with Sept. 1994. For this graph, both the temperature and CO2 datapoints were set to zero; then the cumulative changes for both were plotted each month - does not affect linear trends when done this way.
We've been told by the climate experts that increases in atmospheric CO2 levels will cause Earth to warm rapidly and dangerously, to the point where civilization's existence was threatened...but what if these "experts" were completely wrong and there is actual empirical evidence to prove them wrong?....
(click on chart to enlarge)
Well, the NOAA empirical evidence from their global temperature dataset indicates that longer term changes in atmospheric CO2 levels are definitely not producing anywhere near the expected long-term changes in global temps, as predicted.
Indeed, "wrong" is likely an understatement.
As a result, the experts' CO2-induced CAGW IPCC hypothesis is revealed for its true nature - basically, a hypothetical nothing-burger.
Let's be clear: the actual NOAA empirical evidence, from the global temperature climate instrumental records, does not support the hypothesis that long-term changes in atmospheric CO2 levels produce rapid accelerating, dangerous global temperature changes.
The adjacent graph of 10-year CO2 change plots, and concurrent 10-year change in NOAA global temperatures, is unequivocal: there is no correlation between the two, unless one wants to argue that a r2 of 0.08 somehow indicates a strong relationship.
The chart includes a 60-month average (purple) curve of the 10-year temp changes; likewise there is a similar average curve (dark grey) for the 10-year CO2 changes. Obviously, these curves show no relationship and essentially are now moving in opposing directions. The purple curve (temps) reflects a pattern of climate ups and downs, while the grey curve (CO2) since 1960 suggests an exponential growth situation.
In addition, it has been noted on the chart when extreme 10-year temperature changes have taken place - those rare increasing/decreasing temp changes that equal or exceed +0.6/-0.6°C. There have been 8 such events, 6 of which took place prior to 1960 (see light-yellow boxes on chart).
Hmm...what's that you say?...growing human CO2 emissions have caused a greater frequency of extreme climate incidents during the modern era? Ahem...a definitive 'Nope!' will suffice at this point.
In summary, if long-term changes in atmospheric (ppm) CO2 levels caused long-term changes in global temperatures, then the chart would have plots of the two principal change datasets tracking each other - in reality though, they're demonstrably different.
The NOAA empirical evidence strongly undercuts the CAGW hypothesis and, btw, demonstrates for the related hypothesis (which states that CO2 acts as a climate thermostat/control knob) is laughable nonsense.
Does all of the above indicate that human emissions have zero influence of global temperature changes? In fact, it does not indicate that; instead, it indicates that the CAGW hypothesis is without factual merit and that the climate sensitivity to CO2 is likely significantly lower than the IPCC "experts" proposed.
With all that said, the data strongly suggest, at best, a rather trivial CO2-influence on longer-term temperature change and its being indisputably non-dangerous.
Note: Temperature dataset; CO2 datasets. Excel was used to calculate 10-yr changes (ie. differences); to calculate r2 using the slope 'correl' function; and to produce plots and 60-mth average curves. To calculate a 10-yr. temp. change example: subtract the August 2004 temp. anomaly from the August 2104 anomaly. The same subtraction method is used to calculate 10-yr. CO2 level (ppm) changes. Starting with January 1890, the 10-yr chg. calculations can be made for each subsequent month, resulting in 1,496 'decadal' datapoints (NOAA monthly dataset commences at January 1880). Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
Even the most die hard, green climate scientist who spouts CO2 catastrophe hysteria does not really believe in the unicorn of climate mythology - the mythical CO2 'control knob' - an anti-science myth pushed by the likes of Al Gore, Bill McKibben, Obama and scientist Leo DiCaprio...and there is a very substantial reason why scientists don't believe it...all the empirical evidence easily refutes its existence.....
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Climate scientists who are not of the payroll of 'Big Green' NGOs, nor dependent on government research grants, find it much easier to speak out against the utter nonsense and myths of anti-CO2 activists and the slimy crony-greens.
An example: As climate scientist Judith Curry indicates, there is no basis for a magical 'knob' that would allow today's politicians and bureaucrats to dial-in a desired climate outcome for next month, or the next year, or the next decade, or the next century.
The facts, simply stated: There is no science, no computer model, nor any available mechanism(s) that would allow today's humans to tweak CO2 emissions a certain way in order to produce a future climate of specific attributes by, say, 2050.
It's what is referred to as, "no frakking way."
The inner circle of establishment climate science knows this, yet due to political agenda reasons, they are forced to deliver lip service to the ludicrous 'knob' analogies.
The massive failure of billion$ climate models and the ongoing 17+ year pause in global warming provide the necessary and vivid testimonials to the fallacy of a climate thermostat knob, whether controlling natural and/or human CO2 emissions.
In addition, there is the latest empirical evidence that completely invalidates the 'knob' assertion.
This adjacent plot of 5-year temperature change versus 5-year atmospheric CO2 level change is based on the most recent empirical evidence published by the government's GISS/NASA scientists (and they happen to be some of the largest proponents of chicken little global warming calamities).
This empirical science published by NASA is undeniable, and most alarmist scientists accept, although grudgingly - the relationship between changes in atmospheric CO2 levels and changes in temperature are, at best, significantly lame weak.
Indeed, the two dataset plots reveal zero relationship with a correlation that produces a r2 barely above zero. A non-existent relationship from 1880 to the end of August 2014,
Look at the green and red fitted trends. Obviously, the green CO2 trend exhibits rapid, accelerating and even exponential growth after 1950. And the global temps? The red temperature trend depicts very little growth in temperature change, and currently exhibits a deceleration that climate models and "experts" never predicted.
In fact, one could surmise that the temperature changes reflect a natural cycle of ups/downs (ie. a pattern), which the accelerating CO2 growth has absolutely zero influence on.
Ergo, the 'control knob' proposition has the same likelihood of reality as those space alien abductions one reads about, Big Foot enrolling at Univ. of Washington, Congress balancing the budget, or Earth developing a climate of "boiling" oceans.
Which is why at least 97% of actual climate scientists categorically reject this particular brand of Hollywood anti-science fantasy.
And yes, one can be a member of the 97% who believe humans have a warming influence on climate, and yet, still completely reject the existence of this particular mythical CO2 unicorn.
Note: Temperature dataset; CO2 datasets. Excel was used to calculate 5-yr changes (ie. differences); and to produce plots and 6th order polynomials. To calculate a 5-yr. temp. change example: subtract the August 2009 temp. anomaly from the August 2104 anomaly. The same subtraction method used to calculate 5-yr. CO2 level (ppm) changes. Starting with January 1885, the 5-yr chg. calculations can be made for each subsequent month (GISS/NASA monthly dataset commences at January 1880).
The climate science is indisputable...the known physics requires that each tonne of new CO2 emissions will have a smaller impact than the previous tonne...there is no escaping the actual logarithmic relationship between atmospheric CO2 and global warming.....
(click on to enlarge)
The known climate science of global warming is not a mystery. It is well documented climate physics that just about every scientist agrees with. And for the layperson, it's not terribly difficult to confirm.
3. A spreadsheet to make the necessary calculations and then plot the outcome.
These items were used to produce the adjacent chart. Five different time periods were chosen, then the warming (degree C) per CO2 tonne was calculated for each time period.
The resulting datapoints were then plotted and connected with a fitted trend (6th order).
Clearly, this actual climate science empirical evidence substantiates the known climate physics.
With this confirmation, one could assume that all warming since 1850 was due to human CO2 emissions, but then the logical conclusion is cast in concrete science - CO2's impact is shrinking towards zero, as observed, and likely will have even a smaller global warming impact in the future.
Note: The chart's fitted trend provides a sense of direction in the past but it has unreliable predictive qualities (if any). Why 1950-2013? Because the IPCC claims human CO2 is principal cause of warming since 1950. Why 1988-2013? Because in 1988, NASA's James Hansen testified that CO2 warming was accelerating and dangerous (it's been neither). Why 1997-2013? Because, it's been approximately 17 years with the 'paused' global warming. The 1850-2014 period assumes 17.5 gigatonnes of CO2 for first 7 months of 2014. Used 12-month HadCRUT averages to calculate deg/tonne.
For Democrats, green-fascists, liberals, leftists, progressives, socialists and all the various big government types, objective, non-agenda science is the enemy ... especially when it comes to climate science empirical evidence ... those stubborn facts can be sooo cruel.....
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Adjacent are the top 5 reasons the global warming hysteria has failed.
They are called empirical evidence - datasets of temperature observations confirming there has been no statistically significant warming for over 15+ years.
The "consensus" "experts" and billion dollar computer climate models predicted that human CO2 emissions would generate accelerating, catastrophic global warming.
All politicians, bureaucrats and scientists are prone to ludicrous exaggerations, lame mistruths and outright lies as techniques to frighten and push the general public towards accepting an agenda...and leftists, socialists, marxists, progressives and liberals are really exceptional talents in this art of public deception...some very recent climate-liar examples:
"Climate change is the most consequential, urgent, sweeping collection of challenges we face" (Hillary Clinton)..."confronting climate change” is “a duty or responsibility laid down in scriptures" (John Kerry)...“Climate change is so much more consequential than ISIS ever was" (Leading Democrat consultant)...“we are not very far” from the point where climate change should be declared an international public health emergency" (UN's Christiana Figueres).....
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Any political success that is achieved by deceit, hyperbole and hysteria always requires a sacrifice of the empirical evidence and unbiased science.
Yet it is scientific facts and methodologies that ultimately win...it follows that the public can only be mislead for so long.
Despite the extremist hyperbole and doomsday-cult scenario hysteria, the science of climate change is rather mundane, from a long-term view: it gets cold and, OMG!, then it gets hot, with some periods of in-between. Climate change is constantly in play; and humans can no more stop its chaotic version of ebbs and flows, let alone ever controlling a single cloud, thunderstorm, hurricane or tornado.
This chart, from the science journal New Scientist, is a prime exhibit of real-world scientific evidence that reveals how inconsequential today's climate change is compared to all previous climate change.
From the chart, it is clear that extreme climate change is a constant; there have been much higher and lower temperatures in the past; modern climate temperatures are not excessive in the least; and, the purported human-induced, "dangerous" modern temperature warming is only a fraction of past natural increases.
We say purported, because our existence is taking place during a global cooling phase (look at chart closely and note the pale blue areas) which is rather long-in-the-tooth, and at some point would normally rebound to warmer temperatures, just naturally. Indeed, the entire warming since the Little Ice Age is likely to be predominantly a natural response to the prior millenniums of extended cooling.
As the chart's inset clarifies, the modern warming since the end of 1949 has been very modest, being completely within the bounds of previous ancient and geological warmings that have been identified by empirical science.
And the "tipping point" warming has become even more modest during the 21st century:
The atmosphere has not experienced statistically significant warming since March 1996.
The oceans have not experienced statistically significant warming since August 1994.
The globe has not experienced statistically significant warming since November 1996.
Memo to GOP elites: Do not just passively accept the climate-liars' exaggerations, hyperbole and factual misrepresentations. The public wants the science facts; they want evidence that challenges the mindless, ludicrous fear-mongering. Crush the Democrats' hysteria with the real science; and denigrate their junk science predictions generated from the failed computer climate models. Facilitate the flow of scientific empirical evidence and debate - hmm...it's called educating the public, eh?
The 'climate panic' industry has long predicted that growth in atmospheric CO2 would produce rapid and dangerous global warming acceleration...but NASA's GISS climate research unit pretty much slams that alarmist myth to the mat with empirical evidence...
(click on chart to enlarge)
The CAGW global warming hypothesis is rather straightforward: increasing atmospheric CO2 would warm the world in an accelerating, out-of-control manner.
For the adjacent chart, that indeed would be the case, if we pretended the green curve represented global temperature and the red curve atmospheric CO2.
But it's just the opposite in reality.
As the chart depicts over 12 different time periods (all ending July 2014), reality is that while CO2 levels keep increasing over time, the long-term temperature warming trend (the red curve) is not rapidly accelerating towards a tipping point of climate catastrophe.
What about shorter-term? (Okay, okay we won't mention this inconvenient fact.)
Well, note the 3-year period mark. Over the last 3 years, the CO2 level has increased by 7ppm and the warming acceleration "spiked" at 3.8°C per century. To put that "acceleration" in historical context, during July 1915 the global warming trend had a real spike...a 15.4°C per century spike without any meaningful increase of CO2 over the prior 3 years.
Conclusion: It is clear from the NASA/GISS empirical evidence that warming acceleration trends are not highly correlated with ever greater atmospheric increases of CO2. The claimed CAGW impact from the growing accumulation of human CO2 emissions in the atmosphere appears to be temperature-trivial. From the evidence, one can also conclude that not even GISS can manufacture a temperature dataset that reveals runaway warming, let alone their fabled catastrophic "boiling oceans" prediction. Dang, those stubborn facts.
Note: Monthly GISS temperature dataset source. All chart time periods end as of July 2014. Used Excel to calculate trends utilizing the built-in slope function; plots created by Excel. Monthly CO2 levels estimated from a combination of source-1 and source-2. Interpreting the chart: for example, over the 60-year period ending July 2014, CO2 ppm increased by 86 and the GISS per century warming trend for the last 60 years was 1.3°C.
Obama and his ilk fervently believe the South Pole is melting, soon to drown America's coast lines with a rising sea level...or, maybe Democrats are just pathological liars determined to scare Americans into voting for even bigger government...regardless, both the scientists and satellites document how wrong the liberal-left-greens are.....
(click on graph to enlarge)
Science is based on research and empirical evidence, not on speculative guesses or those "likely" predictions from computer simulations.
Over the last few decades, the IPCC and its computer climate models have speculated that Antarctica was melting due to all the human CO2 emissions released into the atmosphere.
CO2 emissions that were producing accelerating and dangerous global warming that was being "amplified" across the South Pole.
Democrats, the mainstream media and green progressives have continuously repeated these flimsy, fear-mongering predictions as science "truth," representing the mythical "consensus." Yet, they conveniently ignore the actual hard empirical evidence and real scientific research that the American public has paid for.
Case in point:The South Pole
A brand new peer-reviewed research study conducted by MIT scientists confirm what NASA's satellites have documented (see adjacent chart) - Antarctica is cooling. Ahem...those inconvenient stubborn facts just hurt, no?
"By contrast, the eastern Antarctic and Antarctic plateau have cooled, primarily in summer, with warming over the Antarctic Peninsula [C3 Ed: approximately 4% of Antarctica land mass]...Moreover, sea-ice extent around Antarctica has modestly increased.....In other words, the authors find that most of the Antarctic continent has cooled, rather than just the Southern Ocean..."
Note: Chart plots and trends produced using Excel. South Pole temperature anomaly dataset source (since inception date used). CO2 dataset source.
A combination of fanatical green activists and wealthy crony-capitalists has produced a strong influence over the Obama administration and its climate policies/regulations ...Democrats in Congress have also been bought off...unfortunately for the American public, these corrupting motivations lead the government and bureaucrats down policy paths that ignore climate history and its science.....
(click on graph to enlarge)
"What's the weather tomorrow?" 'Been, there, done that'
"What will the climate be 10 years from now?" 'Been there, done that.'
Regardless of human activities and human CO2 emissions, the climate and weather have a strong, built-in natural rhythm that takes place, relentlessly.
The scientific evidence is unequivocal about this: the global climate repeats itself.
The adjacent chart plots the scientific empirical evidence - the globe naturally cycles through periods of extreme cooling and warming. And as the evidence reveals, the Obama/Kerry climate-porn duo exist during a period of cooling, not the extreme accelerating global warming that they claim.
For context, the chart extends back to the 1850s, with major peaks in the global warming trend identified with the president occupying the Oval Office at the time.
Note that the highest peaks (ie. dangerous and rapid global warming) took place prior to 1950 and the modern era's industrial/consumer CO2 emissions. Note also that after peaks were reached, the climate naturally repeated its cooling phase - every single freaking time.
And because presidents and Democrats during those times did not deny the natural cyclical peaks and valleys of the global climate, they did not end up making fools of themselves by claiming that CO2 'vapors' had given the world a fever from a runaway, tipping point warming.
By understanding the nature of the 'been there, done that' climate, past politicians did not hysterically succumb to the likes of today's anti-science charlatans advocating the deindustrialization of America, and the hypocritical snake-oil cronies wanting to steal from the American taxpayers' wallet.
Put another way, past politicians accepted those stubborn facts of empirical science, no matter how inconvenient.
Leftists, progressives, Democrats, liberals, socialists, crony-capitalists, communists, politicians, UN bureaucrats, crony-scientists, mainstream journalists and Hollywood celebrities are acknowledged as the world's climate-porn stars, as well as being in dire need of a basic manual titled 'Climate for Dummies'...their statements regarding global warming and climate change continue to be living proof that stuck-on-stupid and cluelessness are in a constant battle to dominate the leftward thinking brain.....
Without going through a complete litany of embarrassing and moronic left-wing climate change comments by the "elites," several from the past few weeks truly stand out:
===> "The planet is running a fever and there are no emergency rooms" - Democrat Senator Markey from Massachusetts
===>"We no longer need storms or hurricanes to produce flooding - it is becoming an everyday occurrence" - Anne Burchard, the Sierra Club
===> "It's kind of like telling a little girl who's trying to run across a busy street to catch a school bus to go for it, knowing there's a substantial chance that she'll be killed." - MIT professor Kerry Emanuel regarding critics of his opinion that catastrophic global warming disasters are today's climate
===> "It’s time for climate-change deniers to face reality’ – ‘They’re fiddling while the planet burns" - NY Daily News editorial page
===>"MSNBC segment claims that climate change could make a real ‘Sharknado’ happen" - a Comcast-owned Obama propaganda outlet
===>"And this, to me, is the most important film [Sharknado 2] ever made about climate change. There is no film, TV thing, special anything, more important than this film." - Actor, Judah Friedlander
===> "A new report says redheads might one day be extinct...when climate change brings an end to cool mist, the climate for red hair will also disappear." - Diane Sawyer, a TV "journalist", U.S. ABC News
===>"NYU Professor: Solve climate change by making people smaller" - S. Matthew Liao, instructor of bioethics at New York University
===>"Weather is not climate, you willfully ignorant fucksticks.” - obviously, the very "professional" CNN reporter, Bill Weir
Now, climate change comments like these have been part and parcel nonsense from the left-wing nutcases for over 100 years. As can be readily seen here, climate calamities are the 'forever' essential fear-mongering tactics used by elites and disaster-whσres to convince the public. (Additional crazed quotes from the "elites".)
More importantly, these common anti-science fear tactics are completely divorced from current climate science reality, as the empirical records demonstrate (here, here, here,here and here).
So, are the catastrophe rantings and hate emanating from liberal, progressive Democrats a result of some combination of incredible ignorance and stupendous stupidity regarding climate science?
If so, then maybe a book titled 'Climate for Dummies' would be a welcome science reading assignment for left-wing malnourished brains. Needless to say, said book should include a chapter on the science of temperature trends, made as simple as possible for those addicted to global warming calamity-porn.
Our contribution to the book will be the adjacent "Warming" Speedometer, which is a very simple visual aid to help liberal/progressive/Democrats put those really, really hard concepts of per century temperature trends into a proper context. (click on speedometer to enlarge)
For example, this simple decile infographic displays the entire range of 10-year global warming/cooling trends in per century terms since 1860. What could a climate-porn elite learn from this simple visual aid? (And help them from sounding like an uninformed idiot...)
the lowest per century trend (based on 120-month calculations) was reached during 1887
the highest per century trend was reached in 1983
the June 2014 per century trend falls into bottom half of deciles
the June 2014 trend is actually a global cooling trend
that some 31 years after the 1983 peak of 4.3°C warming trend, the temperature trend collapsed to a -0.1°C per century cooling trend.
Conclusions that a progressive/leftist elite might be able to reach from the simple "warming" speedometer of actual empirical evidence?
Hmm...let's see...that the approximate 1.5 trillion tonnes of human CO2 emissions (since the industrial age began) has not given Earth an accelerating fever that is causing the planet to burn - that's an unavoidable, rational and informed assessment of climate reality. And also that the world's modern climate, through June 2014, experienced a wide range of temperature trends (which are similar to the historical and ancient natural climate gyrations).
But as many have discovered to their dismay, empirical science means that liberal Democrats actually have to connect-the-dots, which apparently the climate-porn disorder prevents.
Note: Highest temperature trends (per century, based on 120-month calculations) for each decile noted on Speedometer (bottom decile also has lowest listed). HadCRUT4 global dataset used in Excel analysis. Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
The frigid tropical hotspot continues to be a massive embarrassment to the CAGW faithful, and more importantly, the climate modelers...their prediction of a runaway tipping point in the atmosphere that would produce Venus-like temperatures is a classic example of herd-style failure by the consensus algorithms....
(click on chart to enlarge)
Two recent studies demonstrate the absolute futility of policymakers listening to climate modelers (and their billion dollar climate models) who continually predict climate calamities - a prediction record with zero successes.
The first peer reviewed study determines that today's climate models will never be able to predict the climate. Essentially, climate models assume linear climate relationships yet the real-world climate is non-linear and chaotic - defying intermediate and long-term predictive "expertise" with predictable regularity.
The second study clearly documents the abysmal prediction failure foisted on the public and politicians by the climate modelers. The climate models have long predicted a tropical hotspot in the atmosphere due to CO2 emissions; but actual scientific research reveals that the feared, mythical, runaway "tipping point" hotspot remains non-existent.
The hotspot tipping point, per the climate modelers, is supposedly in the process of turning Earth's atmosphere into a Venus replica, making Earth uninhabitable. But is that realistically happening?
The adjacent chart provides the indisputable, empirical evidence to answer that question unequivocally - NO!
The chart's red column is the Venus atmosphere's temperature at the 10km altitude. A conservative estimated temperature is still an incredibly hot 350°C.
In contrast, the chart's dark blueish columns show the Earth's atmosphere at the same altitude is an incredibly frigid temperature of minus 75C degrees. Yes, our tropical atmosphere is some 425 degrees colder.
Ahem....what freaking Venus-like tropical hotspot?! IT DOES NOT EXIST.
Of course, the climate moderlers stuck-on-stupid-Venus, don't mention this amazingly obvious climate fact. Instead, they focus on how Earth's tropical atomosphere is "accelerating" towards a Venus-like hotspot tipping point.
Accelerating? Barely creeping at a glacial pace would be more accurate.
Examine the chart closely. Since the beginning of the 1980's, humanity has poured some 860 billion CO2 tonnes into the atmosphere; atmospheric CO2 levels keep climbing (see yellow boxes); yet, the average tropical atmospheric temperature has essentially not budged (see red dotted baseline) over 3+ decades of modern consumer/industrial human emissions.
The solution to climate science reality and better policy? 'TRUST NO ONE CLIMATE MODEL' should be stamped on every CO2-centric climate model prediction and report that is handed to politicians and policymakers.
Then this type of anti-science insanity preached by the climate modelers would finally be D.O.A., never again to poison a public scientific debate with "runaway" catastrophic climate absurdities.
Note: Source of approximate 10km Venus temperature; source of approximate Earth's troposphere temperature; source of approximate tropical latitude troposphere temperatures; source of lower tropical atmosphere temperature change since 1979; source of total CO2 emission tonnes since 1979; source of peak CO2 ppm levels for each decade.
Per the empirical measurement evidence published by NASA, the last 15 years of temperature change is not much different than earlier, pre-modern climate change...tepid to lukewarm is about the most alarmist description that fits the CO2 doomsday-cult hysteria.....
(click on chart to enlarge)
As almost everyone (alarmists and skeptics) agrees, climate change is continuous, accompanied by associated temperature changes. Based on the common measurement techniques utilized, over the last two decades the globe has warmed.
However, with that said, the last 15 years of global warming has really not been too impressive - so unimpressive, that scientists are debatingspeculating what happened to it.
In fact, when examining the moving 15-year temperature changes over the last two decades, the NASA research indicates (despite the gigantic modern human CO2 emissions) that pre-1950 global temperature changes were greater.
Yes, you read that right. When examining absolute 15-year changes in temperature, our modern warming doesn't quite measure-up to earlier warming.
The adjacent chart plots 15-year (180-month) absolute temperature changes (i.e. differences) of the two decades 1924-1944 (starting July 1924, ending June 1944); and plots the 180-month temperature changes of the two decades from July 1994 to June 2014.
As the chart indicates, both periods have similarities, but the greatest long-term global warming took place prior to 1950. The linear trends on the charts denote the continuing acceleration of 15-year warming (red straight line) for the pre-1950 era, versus the decelerating trend of our current times (green straight line), as reported by NASA scientists.
And, as can be observed, both the long-term warming and cooling extremes were greater during the pre-1950 decades. Confirming the pre-1950 weather/climate extremes is rather easy - just read the headlines from that era.
Conclusion: Modern climate and temperature change is somewhat tepid when compared to the natural extreme changes during the 1930s and 1940s. It would seem that human CO2 emissions are not causing unprecedented, accelerating extremes in modern weather and climate over recent 15-year spans, and may actually be dampening the extremes when compared to the past.
Note: The above chart is comparing the 2 decades ending June 1944 versus the 2 decades ending June 2014 - both periods exhibit identifiable warming. NASA dataset used for the moving 15-year (180-month) absolute temperature difference comparison and Excel chart. Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
'Climate Depot' recently highlighted a ludicrous NY Daily News editorial that is the typical fear-mongering pushed by establishment elites, eargerly published by the mainstream press in regards to global warming and climate change...the editorial's commentary of "while the planet is burning" is an opinion held by a bunch of spoiled, wealthy cronies who have served their country dishonorably by ruining the American dream for future generations and, btw, continue to propose self-serving polices that will make themselves even richer...hmmm..., or instead, maybe they really are just a bunch of scientific illiterate elites who can't be bothered with those inconvenient facts, no?.....
(click on images to enlarge)
As the above paragraph suggests, it's easy to throw out rhetorical bombast in response to over-the-top CAGW doomsday B.S. - especially if the bombast is directed at wealthy elites' galactically-sized hypocrisy and crony-capitalist climate change endeavors.
By now, per the recent polling of Americans (here and here), you'd guess that the GWNs would finally forsake the rhetorical excesses as being a spectacular failed public relations campaign, but apparently not, if the NY Daily News is any indication.
Putting the bombast aside, let's continue with the analysis of those inconvenient global warming and climate change facts.
Recently, 'C3' published a few articles about the actual temperature change experienced across the globe. The key word is 'change.'
When specific temperature 'change' is examined, does it exhibit characteristics deserving of the establishment elites' commonly used fear-mongering qualifiers? Those are qualifiers meant to scare purposefully, such as: accelerating, abrupt, unequivocal, irreversible, rapid, dangerous, indisputable, irrefutable, incontrovertible and etc. Or, as in the case of the wordy wordsmith elites at the NY Daily News, "while the planet burns."
The above chart on the left (Fig. A) is from this 'C3' article, which examines the 6-month absolute temperature changes derived from the state-of-the-art satellite measurement technology. Clearly, the empirical 6-month temperature changes since 1979 do not exhibit characteristics equal to the fear-monger qualifiers, let alone the hysterical, anti-science bullshît of "planet burning."
But wait.....what if the planet really was burning, per the elites' propaganda? What would accelerating, dangerous and unequivocal temperature change look like?
Well, that would be the fabricated 6-month change chart on the right (Fig. B). Using the same time period since 1979, the temperature changes plotted represent the simulated monthly temperature anomalies increasing every single month by just a tiny amount. As a result, the 6-month temperature change curve becomes a fevered-planet exponential.
That's the face of frightening global warming - an exponential precursor to the figurative "burning planet." But the real world intrudes as Fig. A is not that precursor - NOT EVEN CLOSE.
(Tip: If the actual climate temperatures ever produced a similar exponential 6-month, or a 36-month, a 60-month, a 120-month or a 180-month temperature change chart as Fig. B, then it's time for all good skeptics to move their petro-dollar funded haciendas to tropical Antarctica.)
Now, obviously, the two above charts look entirely different. And if the climate is producing accelerating, abrupt, unequivocal, irreversible, rapid, dangerous, indisputable, irrefutable and incontrovertible global warming (i.e. "planet burning") then the 6-month change chart on the right would be reality.
But the chart on the right is not reality - the chart on the left is, which presents a fairly constant up/down of temperature change, essentially negating opposing extremes. That's how the natural climate works in regards to both short-term and long-term temperature changes.
BTW, speaking of lack of extremes...to reinforce what climate reality truly is, depending on your preferred temperature dataset, there has been a non-extreme, slight global cooling trend, from a minimum of 9+ years to 17+ years . This is not some hidden science artifact that only the climate guru-clerics know about. This has been widely discussed in peer-reviewed journals and blogs for the last few years.
Despite the overwhelming empirical evidence, the establishment's elites and mainstream media continue to publish "burning planet" falsehoods. Being completely divorced from the known climate science facts has (thank goodness) seriously undercut their credibility and trustworthiness.
Conclusions: One, the world is not "burning," with all the empirical science pointing to a globe that is experiencing a very, very modest warmingcoolingwarming cooling. Two, "liar, liar, pants on fire" doesn't quite describe the anti-science, the anti-empirical denialism, the overall dishonesty and crony-malfeasance the elites and wealthy pursue to enrich themselves by impoverishing the rest of the world.
The over-the-top predictions of catastrophic climate disaster from proponents of CAGW have become a public relations disaster for the establishment science community...the constant hyperbole about extreme climate change due to abrupt, accelerating and unequivocal global warming turns out to be without empirical, scientific merit, as the UK's recognized gold-standard global temperature dataset confirms....
(click on image to enlarge)
The lack of major hurricanes making direct landfall on the continental U.S. over the last 8+ years is a classic example of extreme climate change not happening as predicted.
Now, add to that the complete disappearance of statistically significant global warming - for the UK's HadCRUT4 there has been no statistically significant warming since October 1996; and for the RSS global atmosphere dataset, it has been since November 1992 - and one then begins to wonder about the incompetence of elite science.
The absence of climate significant warming by itself pretty much confirms that extreme climate change is a non-issue, deserving little priority and resources.
But, there is another view of extreme climate change that can be examined to ascertain whether it has become a modern era problem or not. This can be accomplished by examining simple 10-year absolute change events for global temperatures, both positive and negative.
By identifying the largest 20 warming events and 20 largest cooling events since 1850, the most extreme 2% of temperature swings can be placed in chronological significance. (This identification is best done with the IPCC's gold-standard, the UK's HadCRUT4 monthly dataset, which stretches back to 1850.)
The charts above provide the identification of these extreme, outlier temperature swings. (The May 2014 HC4 dataset contains 1,973 monthly observations from which 1,853 moving 10-year absolute change calculations can be derived.)
As is evident from the empirical data, the vast majority of extreme temperature swings (both warming and cooling) occur prior to 1960. Also, the charts' purple linear trend lines indicate that the extremes are shrinking (getting smaller, if you prefer) over time.
Conclusion: Human CO2 emissions have not caused the predicted abrupt, accelerating and unequivocal global warming during the modern era, as all of the above scientific evidence attests. In addition, the lack of extreme climate change disasters and shrinking temperature swings, in relation to the past, actually indicate there may be an inverse relationship with growing CO2 emissions and atmospheric levels.
Now that would truly be mind-boggling, and help explain why "consensus" scientists are so befuddled and at a loss. Of course, stranger things have happened, such as the recent admission by consensus establishment science that they have been horribly wrong (for three decades, yikes!) about dietary cholesterol and saturated fat causing heart disease.
However, with all the above stated, this does not mean that climate change is not happening; that human activities have no influence on weather and climate; nor that global warming won't occur in the near future.
Note: UK's HadCRUT4 2014 satellite dataset used in Excel to calculate 10-year absolute (i.e. arithmetic difference) temperature changes and linear trends for above charts. Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
Are humans turning Earth into another Venus, an inhabitable planet with temperatures hotter than your Weber grill on the 4th of July? Well...when the empirical dots are connected the scary Venus fate for Earth goes poof....
(click on chart to enlarge)
In a previous post, empirical observations documented the lack of both short-term and long-term warming of the atmosphere.
Another approach to assessing the atmosphere's temperature change is to examine the 10-year changes in the lower troposphere. The graph on the left plots such changes.
Using a satellite dataset that contains 426 monthly temperature measurements, 306 moving 10-year changes can be calculated. This graph plots those 306 data-points (the proverbial 'dots'), plus the cumulative growth in CO2 levels over the same period.
Visually, it is obvious the 10-year temperature changes were dominated by increasing values up till the early 2000's. After that, the 10-year changes decreased consistently, turning from positive to negative. The graph depicts the global atmosphere actually cooling over recent time.
The long increase in 10-year temperature change, and then its subsequent decrease, is confirmed by both the 3-year simple average curve (aqua) and the fitted trend curve (6th order polynomial).
The pale green curve (another fitted trend curve, 6th order) represents the unabated, relentless cumulative growth of atmospheric CO2 levels.
Conclusion: Earth is not turning into Venus. The experts' predictions that human CO2 emissions would turn Earth's atmosphere into a simmering Venus lookalike, resulting in "boiling" oceans, is now substantiated as a crackpot, global warming bogosity - pure anti-science alarmism that was promulgated by establishment science.
Does the above mean that Earth's atmosphere will never warm again? Nope, it will indeed continue to have phases of warming and cooling just as it did in the past, sans Venus conditions, though.....because that is what climates do, just naturally.
Note: RSS June 2014 satellite dataset used in Excel to calculate 10-year temperature changes. fitted trends and 3-year average in the above chart. Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
Whether its impact is viewed from a short-term or long-term perspective, the CO2 trace gas has had little, if any, influence on the atmosphere's temperatures...satellite measurements provide the proof that the CO2-causes-global-warming hypothesis is not climate reality..... (follow up article is here)
(click on chart to enlarge)
It has been predicted by the climate "experts" that human CO2 emissions would cause the world's atmosphere to warm dangerously, producing catastrophic, world-ending climate disasters.
Some 30+ years later, the advanced satellites circling the globe, 24/7, provide the empirical evidence that the "expert" predictions were of no substance, nor merit.
The adjoining graph is a plot of short-term temperature changes since 1979, along with the cumulative growth of atmospheric CO2 levels. Specifically, the 6-month temperature changes show little, if any, impact from the continuous growth of the atmospheric trace gas, CO2. [Clarification: chart's temperature plot is a moving, full 6-month temperature difference calculated from global RSS monthly anomalies, currently 426 anomalies in dataset]
In fact, the overall trend (aqua line) of 6-month changes is actually negative - an indication that abrupt, accelerating dangerous global warming of the atmosphere is non-existent. [Clarification: Aqua line is a linear trend produced by Excel]
Now, that is the short-term. What about the long-term?
A recent study by a group of pro-catastrophic global warming scientists1 determined that the human CO2 warming influence on atmosphere temperatures would be obvious over 17-years of satellite measurements. These are the scientists who claim we have experienced catastrophic global warming, with world climate disasters being imminent.
And what has happened, over this long-term span specified by these scientists?
Over the last 204 months (that's 17 years through June 2014), the atmosphere temperatures have actually exhibited a global cooling trend, not warming. The per century trend is only a -0.36°C. Despite this small number, it still represents a cooling trend, opposite of consensus predictions.
Whether short or long-term, the state-of-the-art empirical satellite evidence is not only obvious, it is both climate and statistically significant: CO2 emissions have not had a significant influence (warming or cooling) on atmospheric temperatures.For objective science, this means that the CO2-centric anthropogenic global warming hypothesis is essentially invalidated, as it is currently understood.
(1) Study. Scientists involved: Ben D. Santer, C. Mears, C. Doutriaux, P. Caldwell, P. J. Gleckler, Tim M. L. Wigley, Susan Solomon, N. P. Gillett, D. Ivanova, Tom R. Karl, J. R. Lanzante, G. A. Meehl, P. A. Stott, K. E. Taylor, P. W. Thorne, M. F. Wehner, F. J. Wentz
Note: RSS June 2014 satellite dataset used (finally!...updated with RSS June 2014 Excel spreadsheet), including 6-month temperature changes and Excel linear trend in the above chart. Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
Has modern human CO2 emissions caused unprecedented, irreversible and accelerating global warming? Convincingly not, per an analysis of UK's gold-standard climate research dataset...certainly, a very inconvenient climate 'FactCheck'.....
(click on image to enlarge)
Regarding claims of "irreversible" and "accelerating" global warming, the scientific empirical evidence (analysis of monthly measurements) comparisons is indisputable: over the last 15+ years, global warming has gone AWOL, which the climate "experts" are mystified about.
Ergo, modern global warming has been in a non-accelerating state, a status reversal taking place since the late 1990's.
Here and here, the scientific evidence from NOAA, when analyzed from a 5-year climate change viewpoint, clearly shows that both modern U.S. and world-wide warming are not "unprecedented" when compared to earlier 20th century periods.
Moving on to a different perspective, the adjacent chart documents that modern atmospheric CO2 levels growth was approximately 6 times greater than during that of the pre-1950 period.
Yet, this immense growth of modern emissions barely produced an uptick in 10-year global warming averages, when compared to a similar time span for the pre-1950s. This is the undeniable result of an analysis of the UK's HadCRUT4 global climate record dataset.
The difference between the two period's 10-year average increase was a trivial +0.1°C - that's well within the range of what natural climate variation could explain. If HadCRUT3 datapoints were used instead, the difference shrinks to +0.05°C.
These differences are meaningless; of no material, meaningful climate consequence; and, totally undeserving of the label "unprecedented."
Climate Change FactCheck Summation: Analyzing 1,853 datapoints of moving 10-year average global temperatures establishes there is no significant empirical evidence from the gold-standard HadCRUT4 climate records that would even suggest that modern-era warming deserves the "unprecedented" designation. Simply stated, scientists and politicians utilizing that adjective are intentionally being deceptive in order to solely advance a political agenda. Likewise, the deceptive use of the descriptors "accelerating" and "irreversible" are also not supported by any scientific evidence.
Additional information regarding the chart:
From a 10-year average global temperature low, established during November 1976, the modern warming period spanned 410 months, ending during December 2010 when the 10-year average peak occurred.
The pre-1950 (prior to the huge 'modern' consumer/industrial CO2 emissions) 10-year average temperature peaked during May 1945. Creating a similar 410-month span, establishes April 1912 as pre-1950 low point for this apple-to-apple comparison.
The atmospheric CO2 level (ppm) growth amounts depicted by the chart are based on these two 410-month periods.
Note: NOAA global temperature dataset and Excel used to produce above infographic and 10-year averages; or download original data from this site. Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
This is also true for the continental U.S. temperatures during the 21st century, though, with an obvious difference. As the adjacent chart reveals, the U.S. temperatures exhibit an actual cooling trend - actually opposite of the rapid, dangerous, "scorching" climate that the White House and some propagandistsliars journalists report.
Based on moving 5-year averages of U.S. monthly temperature anomalies, America's continental climate is currently cooling at a minus 1.2°F per century rate.
It's just another case of 'those stubborn facts' being mighty inconvenient.
Note: Excel used to produce chart, averages and linear trend. NOAA temperature dataset used can be downloaded from this site.
Mother Jones magazine and Chris Mooney provide further proof that the alarmism of greens and the fringe left/progressive/liberal extreme of American politics is a cornucopia of anti-science, falsehoods and misrepresentation...Catastrophic Global Warming Derangement Syndrome (CGWDS) victims have become a national embarrassment and tragedy, no?.....
(click on top images left #1 & right #2 to enlarge)
(click on bottom images left #3 & right #4 to enlarge)
Actual climate science and empirical evidence has long been the enemy of the green/left/Democrat consortium being funded by Obama's crony-donor billionaire friends. A classic example of their littering the editing floor with scientific truth can be found in this recentMother Jones article.
The top/left 'image #1' comes straight from the 'MJ' article and it immediately sets off one's B.S. detector.
Vast portions of the U.S. have just made it through a brutal winter and a cold, wet spring, yet Mother Jones is talking global warming "scorching"? In fact, after 30 years of gigantic CO2 emissions, the first four months of 2014 temperatures in the U.S. were, on average, -0.26 degree lower than those of January, February, March and April during 1984.
Yep, 30 years later the U.S. was cooler - as pseudo-journalist Chris Mooney would say: "It's about our scarcely recognizable present"
In determining where this Mother Jones pile of B.S. was leading, a closer scrutiny of the 'image #1' reveals that it is a temperature map for the last 22 years.
Whoa, 22 years!? WTF?
Honestly, what objective, impartial person interested in the empirical-based science would pick a 22-year snapshot as the sole climate representation of the U.S. with no other context? What major publication would publish such a temperature map without at least also showing what has happened to U.S temperatures since 1996?
Can you quickly say "amazingly, ludicrous, cherry-picking misinformation" three times in a row? It's safe to say Chris Mooney and Mother Jones can.
So, what would cause those brainy "elites," who suffer from an obvious CGWDS affliction, to basically misrepresent the climate as it is being experienced today, but instead focus on a specific 22-year period? Why not present the readers with multiple-period maps and graphs that provides a contextual full picture of reality?
Well, image #2 (top/right) provides the ready answer to their ludicrous cherry-picking deception.
Turns out that the 22-year period ending March 2014 had the highest per century rate of U.S. warming when analyzing multiple time periods. Yet, as the American public is well aware, the previous U.S. warming trend that generated that unique 22-year peak has since morphed into a cooling phase since 1996 - ahem...now look at all those negative blue bars in image #2 starting with the last 18 years.
Adding even more proof that the U.S. is not suffering from "scorching" global warming deception, images #3 and #4 reveal NOAA's climate reality for 1992 (22 years ago) and 2014, respectively.
How about that! NOAA, the principal U.S. climate research agency, reports that the U.S. recently experienced an actual cooler climate than that of 1992 (22 years ago).
Gee, why would Chris Mooney and Mother Jones leave important empirical evidence context like this out of their "scorching" article? Hmmm...makes one wonder if they purposefully want their readers to think they are liars; or maybe they think the readers of 'MJ' are just incredibly gullible and/or common sense stupid. Who knows?
For additional scientific context missing in the Mooney climate-doomsday article, go here, here, here, here and here.
Oh...and those "Seven Scary Facts About The Global Left & Greens":
1. they start with the initial bullshÎt;
2. then they sprinkle some more bullshÎt here and there and everywhere;
3. they advance their agenda by rapidly accelerating the bullshÎt spreading with over-the-top hyperbole;
4. they then deny their bullshÎttÎng when all the scary predictions fail;
5. then they claim they were misunderstood and really did not mean their previous bullshÎt to be literal;
6. they then introduce multiple new theories as to why some new bullshÎt should be believed, ignoring the fact all their previous bullshÎt was completely wrong;
and #7, hey, they finally state that you're a racist, Gaia-hating, homophobic, paid-by-the-Koch-brothers denier if you no longer believe all of their anti-science, doomsday bullshÎt.
Indeed, it's never ending CGWDS bullshÎt combined with crazy-person denial - similar to the famed Black Knight's relentless denial, despite his obvious and indisputable shortcomings.
The huge failure of "expert" climate science goes all the way back to the IPCC's genesis: its 1990 predictions provide the 99.9% proof that their global warming fear-mongering is without scientific merit.....
(click on chart to enlarge)
Climate reality and actual evidence-based science has completely eviscerated the global warming claims of the IPCC's "scientists" and those in the "consensus" choir.
Recent climate change predictions produced by the latest bleeding-edge computer models have proven to be spectacularly wrong.
Longer-term proof that the IPCC (and its climate-doomsday religion acolytes) is provided by the original "expert" predictions that were first published back in 1990. That proof is clearly obvious from the accompanying chart.
Simply stated: the IPCC predicted that if human emissions of CO2 kept growing in a business-as-usual (BAU) manner, the world would experience a high likelihood of global warming acceleration - to a per century rate of 2.8°C.
Instead, as the chart depicts, global warming since 1990 has achieved only a 1.4°C per century rate, per the global-wide 24/7 measurements of satellites. Yet the BAU growth of human emission tonnes actually accelerated to a 13.2% annual rate for the 10 years ending 2013. Those are the stubborn facts that are indisputable, unequivocal and irrefutable.
This cataclysmic failure of orthodoxy, green religion-based, climate-science-doomsday predictions is now being referred to as one of science's biggest mysteries - a confirmation of 99.9% proof one could surmise, and the public reportedly agrees with.
And let's not forget the proof that the doomsday climate scientists are confirming their own spectacular prediction failures with the recent plethora of excuses.
Ahhh.....those stubborn facts. The "consensus" climate science "experts" have been constantly bedeviled by the empirical climate reality, such as this...
(click on chart to enlarge)
NOAA's empirical evidence does not lie, nor deny. Over the last 205 months (Feb. 1, 1997 thru Feb. 28, 2014), the continental U.S. has cooled at a per century rate of -0.96°C.
This has taken place despite the assurance of almost every taxpayer-funded climate scientist that the exact opposite would happen.
They told us that their powerful and sophisticated computer climate models could accurately predict what future climate conditions we would experience.
Except they were spectacularly wrong from day one; and yet, they kept spending multi-billions of taxpayer funds by throwing it down this failed climate research rabbit hole.
Why were the "experts" and the computer simulations so, so wrong?
From a recent essay about this gigantic and embarrassing failure by government scientists, we learn:
"Realities about climate models are much more prosaic. They don’t and can’t work because data, knowledge of atmospheric, oceanographic, and extraterrestrial mechanisms, and computer capacity are all totally inadequate. Computer climate models are a waste of time and money...Inadequacies are confirmed by the complete failure of all forecasts, predictions, projections, prognostications, or whatever they call them."
An analysis of satellite temperature dataset, through February 2014, identifies only two 5-year periods having significant warming and five periods that exhibit either zero warming or cooling.....the consensus experts' predicted reaction, by the climate, to a surge of human CO2 emissions is not supported by empirical evidence
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The adjacent chart clearly depicts the lack of the predicted global warming since the decade of the 1990s.
Utilizing a straight-forward, empirical analysis of the RSS satellite temperature dataset reveals a rather tenuous (non-existent?) relationship between global atmospheric warming and CO2 emissions.
As the chart suggests, a brief global warming spike has morphed into an extended global cooling phase, which the consensus experts have identified as 'the mysterious global-warming hiatus'; plus being forced to trot-out a wild variety of excuses as to why their AGW predictions have failed.
Unfortunately, the GWNs, and their compatriots in the green climate-doomsday-is-near cult, continue to reject the actual scientific empirical evidence, such as the above chart.
Download datasets used to calculate the five-year change (starting base month is February 1979) of RSS atmospheric temperatures; cumulative CO2 emission tonnes, from 1979 through 2013. Don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy. Go here to learn how.
Another new study by climate "experts" produces even more speculation as to why the modern global warming 'Pause' has unexpectedly happened ... in the meantime, per NOAA.......
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The never predicted 'Pause' has no equal as the chart on the left begins to suggest. This chart is a plot of total temperature anomaly differences (i.e. total monthly change, month by month) since February 1998 through December 2013.
NOAA's year-end 2013 published monthly temperature dataset has identified February 1998 as the highest temperature anomaly month ever. And as the chart indicates, for the subsequent 190 months, that 1998 peak was never topped, despite an average 29.5 billion new tons of CO2 emissions per year over that time span.
Since the modern era beginning with the 1950s, that 190-month stretch is the longest uninterrupted "pause" - simply, this is unprecedented since the era of vast consumer/industrial CO2 emissions commenced.
In contrast, the earlier 190-month period ending February 1998 experienced an almost continuous climb of higher and higher temperature changes, culminating in the early 1998 peak.
This steady climb was supposedly the sole result of the growth of new CO2 emissions (this periods emissions actually averaged some 30% less than the subsequent 190-month period ending in 2013).
Thinking the pre-1998 warming phase was of permanent nature, not transient, the consensus climate "experts," and their sophisticated climate models, predicted this steady warming trend would just drone on year after year, as far as the mind could speculate.
And like so many experts in so many other science fields, the IPCC climate wonks were wrong, spectacularly. It now stands at 190 months of prediction failure!
Surprised? If yes, review previous of 'those-stubborn-facts' charts here and here.
Note: How calculations were done: For the 190 months ending December 2013 (left chart), the February 1998 anomaly was the base point. The anomaly difference from this base was calculated for each subsequent month. No calculated difference during the 190 months was greater than -0.0001. Similar difference calculations were made for the 190-month period ending February 1998 (see rightmost chart), with that period's base point being April 1982.
Download NOAA 2013 year-end global monthly dataset used for difference calculations and plots (NOAA changes all historical data points for each new month's dataset, so 'C3' will retain this 2013 dataset for the near future). CO2 emission dataset can be downloaded here. Don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy. Go here to learn how.
Proponents of the CAGW gloom and doom disaster scenarios often say that we need to "connect the dots" to understand how CO2 emissions are causing dangerous "accelerated" global warming.
Of course, these alarmists hope no one will actually "connect the dots," which is the almost guaranteed case for mainstream science journalists, TV pundits, politicians and Hollywood celebrities - those icons of mental laziness and politically correct thinking.
But what happens when one does actually connect-the-dots?
Well, the real world climate reality is then discovered: global warming has stalled and global cooling trends are appearing (see the UK and the US), confirmed by the scientific empirical evidence.
This adjacent chart for the global temperature trends (using the HC4 temperature dataset published by the UK's premier climate research agency) provides compelling evidence that human CO2 emissions are not producing disastrous global warming trends.
As the chart reveals, today's per century trends are dominated by cooling for the different time periods; today's trends are multiple times below prior period, historical highs; the 5, 8 and 10-year trends are definitely below the average modern trend (1950 through 2013); and all the trends are significantly less than those reached 15 years ago (see black dotted lines for year-end 1998 trend levels).
As an aside, in the future, as the 15-year trend moves further and further from the persistent temperature impacts of 1997 and 1998, it too will likely become a negative trend.
None of today's trends even approach the IPCC's predicted trend range of 2 to 6 degrees (C) per century that its "experts" and climate models told us long ago were being experienced (unfortunately, they mistook the natural climate's super El Niño's huge impact during 1997/98 as confirmation of CO2-induced warming).
As readily apparent, because of natural climate feedback forces, yesterday's over-hyped accelerated warming (eg, 1998) can quickly reverse course, delivering robust deceleration and even global cooling.
And that's what one learns from the empirical climate science when the "dots" are truly connected.
More of that connect-the-dot style of climate science reality: modern global and regional temperature charts.
Dataset used in Excel to calculate moving 5-year, 8-year, 10-year and 15-year per century trends (ie, slopes), chart column bars and line curve. Don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy. Go here to learn how.
Over recent decades, there have been many false claims, misrepresentations and untruths regarding climate change and global warming.
Unfortunately, these deceptions are commonly void of any empirical merit, pernicious in nature and stubbornly deep-seated, often held dear by the world's establishment elites. Typical of false claims held dear include: global warming is "accelerating"; "runaway" global warming is at a "tipping point"; and that the greenhouse gas CO2 is a "control knob" or "thermostat" for Earth's climate.
With an air of authority and trust, agenda-driven, white-coat scientists can make these fictions sound entirely plausible, especially to the incredibly gullible establishment elites. However, these falsehoods rarely can survive even the simplest climate 'factchecks,' which apparently are beyond the intellectual capabilities of most elites.
Case in point, examine the accompanying chart carefully. (click on to enlarge)
Using the UK's HadCRUT4 global temperature dataset and NOAA's datasets for CO2, one can plot the per century warming/cooling trends on a monthly basis going back to 1850. Utilizing the easy-to-use plotting and calculation tools of Microsoft's Excel, it is simple to compare the empirical temperature trends of climate reality with the growth of atmospheric CO2 levels.
What do these empirical climate records actually reveal?
===> That acceleration of cooling and warming happen with great frequency, then always followed with an inevitable deceleration - "accelerating" warming (nor cooling) persists
===> That the different period cooling/warming trends exist in narrow to wider bands over the total instrumental temperature record
===> That the 10-year trends (cyan) have a narrower ban than the 5-year trends (purple); the 5-year trends have a narrower band than the 3-year trends (green); the 3-year trends have a narrower band than the 2-year trends (blue); and finally, the 2-year trends have a narrower band than the 12-month (one year, red) band
===> The 1-year trends (moving 12-month) reach the greatest extremes, with excesses coming close to either a cooling trend of minus 80 degrees per century or a plus 80 degrees warming trend per century - amazingly, within a few years of each other
===> The greatest warming (acceleration) trends ever recorded took place during the 1870s; the largest cooling trends occurred during the late 1870s and early 1880s.
===> The highest 10-year warming trend (briefly at 4.14°C/century) happened in 1983, well in advance of the highest CO2 atmospheric levels achieved during the 1990s and the 2000s
===> The 2013 year-end per century trends (note the color arrows on chart's right axis) are well below previous warming trends
===> Although the 1-year moving trends in the distant past have approached both extremely high and cold temperature rates, the natural climate reactions then produced reversing course corrections (i.e. nature responds to extremes by avoiding long-term "runaway" and "tipping point" conditions)
===> The future climate will continiue to exhibit high natural acceleration and deceleration for both cooling and warming, guaranteed
===> The continuous growth of cumulative CO2 emissions over the entire span since 1850 has likely zero correlation with the constant acceleration/deceleration of natural climate temperature trends - CO2's impact on the trends is demonstrably minimal
===> The immense increase of CO2 levels (110ppm) since 1850 has not produced any trend peak, nor trough, during the post-WWII era that could be even remotely construed as "unprecedented" or "runaway" or a "tipping point" condition (with the possible exception being the 1-year cooling trend trough reached during the 1970s)
===> Simply put (which is blatantly obvious from the empirical evidence), human CO2 emissions or total CO2 atmospheric levels are not the "control knob"/"thermostat" that the white-coat, agenda-driven scientists say they can manipulate to manage the globe's temperatures.
Prior to the immense post-WWII consumer/industrial CO2 emissions, the world was warming, which peaked in the year 1944 (see chart).
The total pre-modern temperature increase to an identified peak (Sept. 1944) was +0.55°C, using the 12-month mean for year 1850 as the starting point.
Since the end of 1944 though, the modern era warming only added another +0.40°C on top of the 1944 peak, based on the high point for the rolling 12-month average, which was reached in mid-1998 (Aug. 1998).
With all the doom and gloom of global warming alarmism, this unexpected truth of modern global warming being less than the pre-modern era is an indicator that man-made catastrophe is not just around the corner. And this good news comes to us from the IPCC's own gold-standard for temperature observations - the UK's HadCRUT4 global dataset.
Also, the above chart of the 12-month means clearly shows a climate that moves from cooling to warming phases, and then back - a natural oscillation that 'catastrophic global warming' skeptics have long discussed, while being dismissed by the IPCC and its cohorts.
Keeping the observed oscillation in mind, the last significant warming ended with a peak in 1998 (the peak during 2010 was a very close second) and temperatures have since paused. Recently, this natural climate oscillation has been identified (by none other than the premier science journal Nature) as a potential cause of the 'Pause' that is generating such befuddlement for the "consensus" climate experts.
Not only has there been a very noticeable pause, since late 2001 there has been an actual cooling of global temperatures, which is noted on the chart with a light blue text box. As for the 12-month 2013 mean, it represents a slight temperature drop of -0.09°C since the 1998 peak (another case of those-stubborn-facts).
Understand, this chart does not explain the amount of any given warming/cooling that is due to either nature or humans, respectively. Nor does it tell us how long the 'Pause' will last or which direction temperatures will take after the stall. Some experts say temperatures will surely fall, while others claim that warming is hiding in the ocean deeps just waiting to climb out - your choice as to which view is correct.
The chart does suggest however that unpredictable temperature movements and climate change will happen regardless of CO2 levels and any human actions.
Finally, many CAGW alarmists predict that global temperatures will jump some 6 degrees by year 2100AD with a doubling of CO2. This chart's axes have been set to provide that context. Per the empirical history since 1850 and the recent global cooling, the 2100AD temp is much more likely to reflect the established +0.47°C per century trend...one thinks.
For those sharp-eyed readers, the chart title has slightly different temperature increase numbers than this article's text. The chart increases are based on the year-end that the peak temperatures took place; the increases used in the text are based on the actual month/year the 12-month mean peak happened.
Note: Excel was used to calculate the 12-month rolling means and plot the data. Used the HadCRUT4 dataset; the post-1958 CO2 dataset; and the pre-1958 CO2 dataset (divided annual ppm levels by 12). Don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy. Go here to learn how.
Other IPCC consensus "experts" are wildly throwing around a hodgepodge of reasons that at last count was up to eight. Take your pick.
One reason definitely not on the table for discussion by climate reality deniers resisters is the obvious one: increasing CO2 levels are having little impact on global temperatures, which means that nature's normal climate forces overwhelm any CO2 influence. For the consensus scientists to open this can-of-worms would be the death knell of the AGW hypothesis - scientists driven by greed and the limelight do not willingly eviscerate the golden ox that has produced multi-billions for research grants and scientific studies.
Yet, when scientists examine the empirical temperature measurement datasets, it becomes readily apparent that changes in CO2 levels are not generating the expected changes in global temperatures, as predicted by the immensely powerful and sophisticated (and incredibly costly) climate models.
This obvious climate reality is portrayed in the above chart. Literally, 3-year changes in CO2 levels have no correlation with 3-year changes in global temperatures for the IPCC's modern era, starting with 1950. Simply put, one does not have to be a rocket scientist, nor a climate scientist, to ascertain that the CO2-centric AGW hypothesis is severely dysfunctional.
Eventually, global warming phase will return, as it always has in the past, but the climate models' prediction outcomes (and credibility) will likely be even worse, if that is even possible.
Poll after poll clearly indicates that Americans do not believe the Obama administration's anti-science claims (bogus?) regarding climate change and global warming.
Most Americans understand the day-to-day climate reality, thus they handily reject the climate hysteria and gutter-smears that both Obama and John Kerry feel compelled to utter.
As this accompanying chart reveals, global temperature change has decelerated and is now in negative (ie, global cooling) territory - the pink dot denotes current climate reality during the Obama administration.
This empirical evidence from the UK's climate research agency is the gold-standard, utilized by the UN's IPCC.
The red curve is a plot of 5-year "acceleration" (or lack thereof) presented as 5-year per century trend data-points (based on 60-month linear trends calculated for each month since 1850). The black plot represents a simple 10-year moving average of the 60-month data-points.
Why 5 years? Reality: The Obama administration has occupied the White House for the last 5 years.
What does the chart establish? Reality: Since a peak of warming "acceleration" during the second Bush administration, the short-term global warming trend has collapsed during Obama's term. Indeed, short-term global cooling is the current scientific fact.
How does the current short-term trend compare to previous administrations? Reality: During the modern era since 1950, Democrat administrations under Carter and Clinton reached the greatest warming accelerations (respectively, a 7.8°C/century trend during 1980 and a 8.4°C/century during 1998).
For comparisons sake, those 5-year acceleration peaks exceeding 5.0°C/century have been labeled on the chart with their respective White House occupants. And note, the greatest global warming short-term accelerations took place prior to 1950, plus being prior to the large influx of post-WWII consumer/industrial CO2 emissions.
When should a future president and the public become concerned about global warming caused climate change? Reality: When warming finally exceeds the unprecedented per century trend rate (11.5°C) previously reached during the Rutherford Hayes administration (1877-1881), for an extended period (say, 2 years as a minimum).
Again, the pink dot on the chart tells the climate science reality: Per the empirical evidence, the recent White House anti-science climate change comments are blatantly false, without any scientific merit, and are deserving of multiple Pinocchio badges.
More climate science reality: Those modern global and regional temperature charts that don't lie.
Dataset used in Excel to calculate 5-year slopes, 10-year averages and plots. Don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy. Go here to learn how. Source of Pinocchio image.
And now NOAA has just released their U.S. dataset update, which reveals that U.S. winters (November, December, January), over the last 20 years, have cooled at a -2.5°F per century rate. The adjacent NOAA/NCDC web site chart depicts that cooling trend.
As this NOAA dataset suggests, the reason for worse winter weather in the U.S. is likely a cooling climate change that has followed the previous modern warming - a natural climate response.
Again, 'those-stubborn-facts' that are so inconvenient for politicians.
The empirical evidence is indisputable and unequivocal.
The continental U.S. has been cooling (-6.5°F/century rate) over the last 15 years, per NOAA. This can no longer be denied by the scientific community and the politicians fanatically pushing the anti-science claim that dangerous and rapid global warming is taking place, due to human CO2 emissions.
This chart plots the most recent monthly U.S. temperatures through January 2014, including the simple 36-month moving average of CO2 atmospheric levels over the last 180 months.
While "global warming" activists/proponents focus on superficial, short-term cherry-picks of the "hottest ________" (just fill in the blank with 'day', 'week', 'month', 'quarter', 'year', etc. to mimic a typical fanatic's cherry-picking spiel), those stubborn climate facts, which are critical, remain simple: the entire globe has experienced a long warming 'pause' and America's climate has been on a cooling trend over that same time span.
Scientists are unable to explain this 'standstill' using the "consensus" AGW hypothesis, and any discussions of the 'inconvenient' U.S. cooling trend are entirely avoided by politicians, climate agency scientists/bureaucrats and other warming advocates.
The observed current U.S. cooling trend is not a prediction, but it does indicate that the continental landmass is affected by powerful, non-CO2 greenhouse gas factors that may continue for the near future.
Note: Chart's linear trend is calculated using monthly absolute temperature values. If using anomalies instead, based on monthly averages from 1901 to 2000 base period, the per century cooling trend is -2.4°F.
Datasets used to create Excel charts, averages, trends and etc. Don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy. Go here to learn how.
Over the last 30 years, the globe has warmed, which no scientist denies.
Likewise, all scientists agree with the NOAA scientific climate facts: ocean warming over the 30 years ending 2013 is not "unprecedented."
Per NOAA, prior to the modern era's huge industrial/consumer CO2 emissions, the global ocean warming was significantly greater, approaching the 2 degree per century rate in 1945.
This prior exceptional warming across the world was duly noted by the mainstream press at the time (scroll down to the 1940s on this page to learn more about previous global warming).
As this accompanying chart of NOAA empirical evidence shows, the 30-year warming rate ending in 1945 was 1.6 times greater than that of the current 30-year period ending in 2013.
And this unprecedented warming of ocean waters occurred during a 30-year period when human CO2 emissions were some 85% less than the modern era (166 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions versus 784 billion tonnes for the most recent 30-year span).
The climate 'FactCheck' summary: the world's climate has experienced a declining ocean warming rate since the 1940s, which contradicts the "consensus" anthropogenic global warming hypothesis, per NOAA. Just another case of those-stubborn-facts ... modern ocean warming is not unprecedented.
Scientists associated with the UN's IPCC predicted that the huge consumer/industrial emissions of the modern era would cause not only "unprecedented" global warming but also dangerous "runaway" warming, which would then produce "tipping point" climate change.
The climate science consensus today is that these speculative climate forecasts, based on flawed computer models, did not happen and expert analysis of the gold-standard of temperature datasets (the UK's global HadCRUT4) confirms it.
As this adjacent chart reveals, modern warming increases over the last 60 years don't even match the warming increases of the prior 60-year period, when earlier human emissions were just a fraction of contemporary amounts. (The vast difference of increases for atmospheric CO2 levels, between the two 60-year periods, is depicted on the chart - an 18ppm increase for the earlier period versus an 82ppm increase for the modern 60-year period.)
The climate science fact that huge modern CO2 emissions did not generate the expected runaway warming over the long-term, nor even over the shorter-term, now has the establishment science journals questioning the obvious - how was the IPCC so wrong?
And this empirical evidence refutation of conventional climate science has become so glaring, that even the traditional mainstream press is finally taking notice that something is truly amiss regarding the IPCC's climate science orthodoxy.
IPCC scientists assume that human CO2 emissions will continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, remaining anywhere from hundreds to thousands of years.
This assumption is a cornerstone of the AGW hypothesis. The cumulative CO2 growth causes global warming that accelerates (they hypothesize) to a condition of "runaway" temperature increases via positive feedbacks, leading to catastrophic "tipping point" climate change.
To simplify, the CO2-centric AGW hypothesis, and climate models, assume that every additional emission molecule of atmospheric CO2 will accelerate the global warming, to the point of no return. Thus, each new tonne (metric) of CO2 will boost the acceleration via a theoretical positive feedback amplification.
But does the empirical evidence actually indicate that is indeed what is taking place?
Using a combination of the NOAA annual global temperature dataset and two sources of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, it can be determined how each new tonne of CO2 emissions is "accelerating" temperatures, or not.
This article's chart provides the answer. As can be observed, each new CO2 emission molecule added to the climate has a smaller and small impact, the opposite of the AGW hypothesis. In 1941, the degree increase per tonne hit a peak. Since then, the impact of each tonne has decreased, significantly - currently it stands at +0.00000000000021°C/tonne.
The AGW hypothesis does not account for this ever smaller impact of CO2. Possibly this is the reason for the "consensus" unexpected global warming 'hiatus', which the IPCC scientists are still at a loss to explain.
If this tiny impact stays constant over the next 30 years, and the growth rate of CO2 emissions over the last 15 years remains the same for the next 30 years (another trillion tonnes emitted), the potential increase of global temperatures will barely be +0.2°C (two-tenths of a degree) by year 2044. And if each tonne's impact continues to shrink, as the evidence suggests, so will the temperature increase shrink.
Now, adding to this miserably low warming influence of CO2 is the recent admission by establishment climate science that natural climatic forces have a powerful say in the trend of global temperatures, regardless of human CO2 emissions. As the Nature science journal indicates, currently, and for the near future, a natural PDO cooling phase may dominate.
More on the above 'C3' chart. Specifically, it plots a ratio of 30-year NOAA temperature changes to the cumulative amount of CO2 tonnes emitted up to that point. For example, the 1941 ratio has a numerator of +0.59°C (30-year annual temperature change) and a denominator of 165 billion CO2 tonnes (the cumulative amount emitted from 1880 through 1941). This ratio calculation is made for each year, starting with 1910 (30 years after 1880).
The ratio allows for depicting visually the influence of all those previous CO2 emissions on moving 30-year climate periods. The chart's additional green and light blue curves simply provide a smoothed sense of direction of the fossil fuel emission influence.
Summary: The observed shrinking of CO2's influence on global warming does not bode well for the future longevity of the AGW hypothesis. Per the well known and documented CO2 physics, this outcome should not be a surprise. It's just another case of 'those stubborn facts' in science.
Per the IPCC's gold-standard of global temperature measurements, since the late 1800s, the highest per century warming trend achieved occurred during the 42-year period ending in 1949.
Simply stated, that is when the actual "unprecedented" global warming acceleration was witnessed.
The accompanying graph establishes this as fact, when put in the IPCC context that modern global warming started with the year 1950. This is the decade of the modern era that the newest IPCC report asserts when human CO2-induced climate change began. (See the red circle? More on that fact in a bit.)
Depending on which IPCC spokesperson's claim is to be believed, since 1950 the "accelerating" global warming is not only unprecedented, it's "rapid", "dangerous", "irrefutable", "indisputable", "undeniable", "incontrovertible" and, of course, "irreversible".
However, the empirical evidence does not support any of these claims.
First, the adjacent chart's essentials. The modern period of 1950 to 2013 is 64 years long, which the IPCC characterizes as being dominated by human CO2 emissions with little natural climate influence. The chart's orange curve represents this modern period.
The chart's green plot represents the 64 years ending in 1949 (from 1886 to 1949), the year designated by the IPCC as the end of natural climate change's dominant impacts. Okay, now note the red circle and red dashed line that intersects the green curve: that's when unprecedented warming took place.
Adding some more context, each of the two 64-year periods had human CO2 emissions. For the modern period since 1950, an approximate 1.2 trillion tonnes of human CO2 emissions were released, while the earlier period had some 200 billion tonnes - that's a 6x difference.
Yet, as this charts reveals, the per century warming trends are remarkably similar with the fastest warming acceleration happening in the earlier period. This overall similarity takes place despite the incredible increase of human CO2 emissions after 1949.
Indeed, there are amazing similarities between the two periods but they do have differences. There is a significant divergence of trends at the 24-year mark where the modern warming trend starts to decline while the pre-1950 trend continues to increase for another 7 years. In addition, at the 11-year mark, the modern temperature trend does an abrupt reversal from negative (i.e. cooling trend) to warming for the next 4 years, then it reverses again until it also reaches a cooling trend for the 5-year mark ending 2013.
Ultimately, what is the overall impact of CO2 emissions on modern climate change when using the IPCC's year 1950 start? Over the 64 years ending in 2013, the global warming trend was +0.74°C per century. In contrast, the per century trend was +0.65°C for the earlier 64-year period ending 1949.
That's correct, all that separates these two extended periods of global warming is likely an unmeasurable +0.09°C - nine hundredths of a single degree.
The UK's HadCRUT4 global empirical evidence makes it very clear: modern acceleration of warming temperatures is not unprecedented, nor unusual due to CO2 emissions; nor does the modern period exhibit any warming trend that comes close to even 1.5°C per century. In summary, it is highly probable that any modern warming was just a continuation of rebound warming after the end of the Little Ice Age. In other words, natural climate change still rules.
Synopsis: The unprecedented, long-term climate change and global warming actually took place over 40 years ago.
One of the reasons that the UK's HadCRUT global temperature series is considered the 'gold-standard' is its reaching back to year 1850 - a year that is considered near the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA).
This dataset's superior length allows analysis of long-term climate change since the LIA, including the widely accepted 60-year cycle of global temperatures.
The adjacent chart plots 60-year global temperature changes and cumulative atmospheric CO2 level changes since 1850, using the annual HadCRUT4 dataset.
From this chart, the following can be discerned:
===>Long-term climate change (60-years), as evidenced by temperature change, has been increasing as the globe has rebounded from the depths of the Little Ice Age
===>Long-term warming started well in advance of huge modern consumer/industrial CO2 emissions of post-WWII.
===>Unprecedented warming ended with the 60-year peak around 1969 and subsequent long-term warming has returned to very modest levels.
===>Claimed "accelerating" temperature warming does not exist in the more recent long-term record - however, there are 60-year periods of cooling and warming spurts that are the likely result of natural cycles.
===>Both the chart's fitted trend and 10-year average curve (cyan and dark blue, respectively), reveal a temperature change direction that is vastly different (i.e. opposite) of the trend exhibited by the growing cumulative CO2 ppm levels.
===>The hypothesized AGW positive feedback, which supposedly leads to accelerating temperature increases and long-term, "tipping point" climate change, is without any empirical evidence merit
===>Prior to 1970, HadCRUT4 documents four exceptional 60-year warming peaks that are equal or larger than either the modern era's 1998 and 2010 peak.
===>The chart depicts long-term climate change (per changes in temperatures) that is constant, never ending - at times dramatic, and other periods, exhibiting more subtle changes
In summary, the immense growth of cumulative CO2 levels over the last 40+ years has had minimal long-term impact on global temperature change. Recent temperature changes are more likely the result of a combination of the remaining natural warming rebound from the LIA end and natural cycles, which produced those large 60-year temperature increases prior to 1970.
Over the past decade, the public and policymakers have come to realize just how atrocious climate models are at predictions, forecasting and future climate scenarios.
Honestly, it's a wonder anyone still listens to any of the conventional, "consensus" climate modelers at this point, especially the modeling "experts" at NASA.
This chart depicts the famous global warming predictions made by NASA's chief climate scientist in 1988 at a hearing before the U.S. Senate.
NASA's James Hansen declared that if the world did not change its way, and kept emitting CO2 in the 'business-as-usual' (BAU) manner, global warming would skyrocket, threatening all of civilization. This is the 'Scenario A' plot on the chart.
Well.....not only has the world matched the 'BAU' growth of the 15 years prior to the 1988 testimony, we have increased the CO2 emission tonnes growth from 1.8% per year to 2.2% (the 15 years prior to 2013). To put those numbers into context, from 1972 through 1987, humans emitted 302 billion tonnes of CO2; in contrast, from 1998 through 2012 humans produced 461 billion tonnes.
Yet, despite the NASA "expertise" and the gigantic growth of human CO2 emissions, actual global temperatures over the past 25 years have closely matched Hansen's 'Scenario C', which he predicted would take place if CO2 emissions had been limited to year 2000 levels.....didn't happen.
Unexpectedly (i.e. not predicted), global temperatures flat-lined and CO2 emissions continued on their merry, amazing growth path, unabated.
Regarding climate reality, the lack of global warming was not a prediction that climate models were programmed to produce. The models do not rely on natural climate change or natural climate warming and cooling attributes. It is not in the models' software "DNA" because human climate experts really don't understand the chaotic nature of Earth's climate, nor comprehend the true power of nature.
The experts are befuddled and recognize that they are without a rational reason for the global warming pause, other than the obvious: natural climate change.
If the current 17-year trend continues, the oceans would warm by an almost unmeasurable one-tenth of a degree Celsius by year 2100. (The 17-year period is 204 months, starting with January 1, 1997 - that is before the super El Nino phenomenon of 1997-1998)
The adjacent charts (courtesy of ocean expert Bob Tisdale) plot the temperature changes for each major ocean basin since late 1981.
The red vertical line on each chart denotes the date of January 1997. The trend data in the corner of each chart assumes the trend from 1997 will continue to year 2100 (warming: trends are not predictions).
From these individual charts, we learn that the northern hemisphere is warming while the southern isn't; it's warming for all the Atlantic basins yet cooling for all the Pacific basins.
Clearly, the CO2-centric AGW hypothesis, and its associated climate models, provide no explanation for this mishmash. It's hard enough for the "experts" to even explain why the Arctic basin warming took off in recent years, while the Southern Ocean basin did the exact opposite, let alone trying to make sense of this global 'mishmash' using the rather lame construct of CO2 greenhouse gas causation.
Summary: The expert consensus was wrong about global warming; the AGW hypothesis is without empirical evidence merit; climate science is not settled, nor will it be in near future; and climate change will continue regardless of CO2 emissions.
Note: Bob Tisdale used NOAA's Nomad web site to create the charts. The Nomad ocean dataset is the highest resolution climate record available but it only goes back to 1981. Bob Tisdale article the charts pulled from.
There is an enduring myth that global temperatures are accelerating, produced by ever greater amounts of human CO2 emissions released into the atmosphere. The myth is popularized by anti-science propagandists, who are either driven by political agendas or irrational fears.
The myth facilitators actually claim that the world is currently experiencing rapid and dangerous global warming. This ludicrous claim is completely counter to all known empirical, scientific evidence.
At least 97% of climate scientists would not make this claim, since it is well established that global temps have stalled for 16+ years, and even the most pro-AGW scientists are now admitting that the lack of warming is likely due to natural forces.
The enduring myth of "accelerating" is a leftover from earlier IPCC climate reports and the original AGW hypothesis that speculated greater levels of atmospheric CO2 would generate "runaway" global warming leading to a catastrophic "tipping point" climate change. That's how 'AGW' turned into 'CAGW'.
Well, neither has happened, which the indisputable and unequivocal evidence is clear about.
The above chart plots the changing 3-year linear trend slopes using monthly observations going back to 1850 (this is the HadCRUT4 dataset from the UK climate research agency - it is the only global dataset going back that far).
The plot clearly shows that temperatures will achieve short-term accelerations, both cooling and warming. The evidence also shows that any acceleration is a temporary phenomenon that then is reversed. The greatest period of accelerating warming took place during the late 1870s when a short-lived +23.4°C per century pace was reached.
The greatest acceleration for the modern era was reached in 1998 (+17.5°C per century rate), some 6 degrees below the earlier record a 100+ years before. The 1998 peak was a direct result of natural climate forces, the super El Nino of 1997-1998.
The chart also includes a 3-year average plot of atmospheric CO2 levels, which reflects a never-ceasing growth (exception being WWII years).
Obviously, to the eye, the level of CO2 has no relationship with "accelerating" cooling or warming. The statistical correlation between CO2 and acceleration level is barely above zero - an indicator that the agenda-driven myth has absolutely no empirical legs, so-to-speak.
Finally, the chart has a 120-period (10-year) average of the 3-year per century trends of acceleration/deceleration. This dark curve has a black circle around the 2013 endpoint. Simply put, accelerating, rapid warming is not happening presently (but rest assured, it will happen in the future, just like it has in the past - and that's what natural climate change does, no human CO2 required).
Recently, the world's major climate agencies published their year-end empirical datasets for global temperatures.
How does actual climate reality compare with the IPCC's 2013 proclamation that their "extremely likely" predictions of global temperatures? With 95% certainty, embarrassingly bad. (click on chart to enlarge)
The chart on the left is a plot of the IPCC's RCP4.5 model output versus the climate reality, as represented by the UK's HadCRUT4 global monthly temperature dataset. The bright red and blue curves are simple 3-year moving averages that visually removes all the monthly gyrations.
It is clear that the IPCC's state-of-the-art 2013 climate models start diverging from climate reality around the 1995 period. And the divergence continues to widen to the point where one could conclude that any future output will be extremely unlikely to be of any value to policymakers.
Put another way, these billion-dollar, taxpayer-funded super-computer model simulations have performed atrociously, and are entirely worthless at predicting future climate scenarios.
How did this happen?
While the IPCC's associated climate "experts" are going through their own set of mental gyrations to explain the abysmal climate model and AGW hypothesis performances, two scientists explain how this failure was produced - article number one and article number two.
If you are curious as to the 'whys' of IPCC climate consensus failure, these articles are a must read. For those short on time, though, in a nutshell a compiled summary of reasons for failure:
natural climate variability ignorance
de-emphasis of large uncertainty
dogmatic co2-AGW orthodoxy
Until the above are adequately addressed and fixed, the probability that climate models will predict with accuracy that policymakers can actually rely on is extremely unlikely, with 99.9% certainty.
As the climate science experts and the empirical climate record datasets confirm, there has been no global 'climate-significant' warming since 1998.
Then there is the question of 'statistically-significant' warming - has it happened?
When this subject is discussed by individuals, it's not always clear what they mean. For this article, a statistically-significant global warming means that the linear trend (slope of the trend line) is likely greater than zero with 95% statistical confidence (i.e. the 95% error bars do not include a possible 0.0 or negative temperature degree slope).
Or, using a very simplified example, a calculated (estimated) linear global warming trend, of say 1.50°C/century, is not statistically-significant if the error bars are at ±1.55°C. If the 1.55 error is subtracted from the 1.50 linear trend, an actual possible trend could potentially be negative, not positive, nor even zero.
For more about statistically-significant global warming, there is an expert discussion here. Using the 2013 year-end major temperature datasets listed in that expert discussion, the above grid table (click on to enlarge) represents the lack of statistically-significant warming for each dataset. (When reading the WUWT article, remember that a statistically-significant warming trend does not necessarily mean that it is a climate-significant trend.)
In summary, the table depicts (for those listed climate records) the lack of statistically-significant warming since mid-1997. That's 16+ years. For two of the datasets, it's now up to at least 20 years without a statistically-significant global warming trend.
So, what's that gotta do with '4 Hiroshima bombs per second', you ask?
Well.....the CAGW dead-enders would like everyone to forget about the actual empirical evidence and statistical facts, and instead, focus on the concept that possibly global warming is adding some 4 Hiroshima bombs of energy per second. They imply that this added energy rains down untold destruction from pole-to-pole.....a classic recent example of this hyperbole is described by this journalist.
Amazingly, the dead-enders conveniently forget to mention the science facts, such as the Sun blasts Earth with energy that is equivalent to 1,950 Hiroshima bombs....per second. When one does the arithmetic (86,400 seconds per day times 1,950 H-bombs/second), that's approximately 169 million Hiroshima bombs of natural warming per day.
Thus, when putting hyperbole into factual context, it helps explain why anthropogenic warming might not be making any statistically-significant impression on nature. And, obviously, the over-the-top hyperbole has made little impression on Americans; not so much on Europeans either.
World Extreme Temperature Map (click on to enlarge)
For several decades now, consensus climate experts predicted that human CO2 emissions would produce extreme climate change for the world, which would be an existential threat to civilization.
Experts spoke of boiling oceans and Venus-like atmospheres caused by humans use of fossil fuels. At the heart of these soon-to-be catastrophic climate disasters was runaway and tipping point warming - hotter and hotter temperatures that kept ratcheting up.
It didn't happen, though. As the above map of extreme temperatures documents, the last 3+ decades did not produce the cascading, record-setting temperature scenario. When one connects the dots, the predictions of CO2 causing extreme climate change are without empirical evidence merit.
As this chart reveals, since 1997 global warming has essentially disappeared from all venues. That's 16 years of hibernation, which has the experts robustly befuddled. (click on chart to enlarge)
---->"The biggest mystery in climate science today may have begun, unbeknownst to anybody at the time, with a subtle weakening of the tropical trade winds blowing across the Pacific Ocean in late 1997...Average global temperatures hit a record high in 1998 — and then the warming stalled....But the pause has persisted, sparking a minor crisis of confidence in the field. Although there have been jumps and dips, average atmospheric temperatures have risen little since 1998, in seeming defiance of projections of climate models and the ever-increasing emissions of greenhouse gases."
The above plots of temperature datasets from different climate agencies/organizations clearly indicate that the feared accelerating and runaway warming predicted did not happen, ever. And, for each dataset, the December 2013 temperature anomaly was below the December 1997 anomaly - basically, one could say the globe has cooled slightly over the past 16 years.
The chart also clearly indicates that billions upon billions of human CO2 emissions have had little, if any, impact on global warming.
This empirical evidence strongly counters any claim that changes in human CO2 emissions, up or down, can be viewed as a "control knob" or "thermostat" for Earth's temperature and climate.
Those stubborn facts about global warming and climate change are not forgiving, nor kind to those who continue to deny the indisputable.
The HadCRUT4 global temperature dataset for 2013 was just published. On review of the released annual temperature averages that the UK experts calculated, the calendar year 2013 global temp was cooler than the 1998 mark.
So, during that 15 years of massive human CO2 emissions, the fearsome "runaway" warming was not so much. In fact, after the spewing of some 450 gigatons of fossil fuel emissions the temperature needle hasn't budged, it's actually lower in 2013.
The UK's findings match what other climate experts have found and are now debating the cause. This 'Pause' (aka 'The Hiatus') in global warming has even been noted in Congressional testimony as a matter of official record.
"The biggest mystery in climate science today may have begun, unbeknownst to anybody at the time, with a subtle weakening of the tropical trade winds blowing across the Pacific Ocean in late 1997...Average global temperatures hit a record high in 1998 — and then the warming stalled....But the pause has persisted, sparking a minor crisis of confidence in the field. Although there have been jumps and dips, average atmospheric temperatures have risen little since 1998, in seeming defiance of projections of climate models and the ever-increasing emissions of greenhouse gases."