We know that the highest priority assigned to NASA by Obama was to build the self-esteem of Muslims, which clearly hasn't worked out to well - but in the case of NOAA, they are obviously working night and day to meet their Obama objective: "warming the world"...
(click on image to enlarge)
As noted in a previous 'C3' post, NOAA conducts a bizarre torturing of historical empirical measurements that defies rational scientific reason. The data torturing of global temperatures takes place multiple times per month, in pursuit of a single-minded objective.
Warming the world.
This chart is a plot two different NOAA global temperature datasets. The green plot represents the monthly global temperatures that NOAA reported at the end of 2008. And the red plot is the same dataset, but only after the tens of thousands of manipulations NOAA has made during the Obama administration. As can be seen, the red linear trend is steeper, meaning that NOAA has fabricated a warming trend that is faster.
NOAA accomplished this by primarily lowering temperatures prior to 1950 (note the red tips at bottom, left of the blue dotted line). After 1950, global temperatures were primarily adjusted up (note the red tips at the top, to the right of the blue dotted curve).
This continuous changing of past empirical evidence is not a case of NOAA and NCDC correcting previous errors or filling-in-the-gaps, instead it is most likely the case of NOAA utilizing their own specially formulated software to "adjust" the global temperature dataset multiple times per month. Obviously, the result of the software is to methodically increase the global warming trend, which then just happens to better match the "predictions" of the infamously unreliable computer climate models that American taxpayers have been forced to spend billions on.
Conclusion: Under Obama, the blatant anti-science technique of changing data to fit the desired political agenda narrative has dominated NOAA's "climate science." They are the only major climate agency in the world that literally changes 100% of the historical empirical evidence every single month. They do so in a non-random manner to attain an objective of increasing "global warming." In simplicity, Obama can look back at the job the NOAA's scientist-bozos have done and announce with pride: "Mission Accomplished!"
Since the Obama "science" team took office, the corruption of science has become an administration mantra - whether it's the green energy science scandals like Solyndra or the bogus climate science of NOAA, it has meant science credibility being dragged through the mud, needlessly - speaking of which....
(click on image to enlarge)
These 2 charts are plots of NOAA's historical global temperature record for the month of October 1899 and May 2011. NOAA has reported 27 different temperatures for each month since January 1, 2012.
Of the 1,529 months included in the entire NOAA temperature dataset, these two months have had the largest change reported during the year 2012.
And it's not just these two months that have experienced retroactive temperature adjustments - every single month in the entire dataset has been adjusted at least 27 times during 2012. Again, that's just for 2012, with the same level of revisionist fabrications occurring in years 2011, 2010 and 2009.
Another bizarre attribute of officially sanctioned revisionism is that most of the months prior to 1950 having cooling "adjustments" similar to the blue curve; and, most of the months post 1950 have warming "adjustments," similar to the red curve. These attributes, when combined, proves that 'Obama-warming' is a phenomenon that NOAA/NCDC scientists alone have discovered (created?).
How unusual are the frequency of these adjustments? For comparison sake, the HadCRUT global temperature dataset has not been revised once in 2012, and its monthly temperatures go back to 1850 (although, HadCRUT will at some point in the near future change to a new Version 4 dataset); for the two major satellite datasets (UAH and RSS), there have been no adjustments made to their entire monthly temperature record in 2012; and finally, the NASA/GISS dataset has had one occurrence in 2012 of an entire dataset revision, plus every month the GISS folks do seem to "adjust" more recent monthly records with some frequency.
So, for the record, NOAA is the only major climate research agency that feels compelled by some agenda, to not only "adjust" temperatures on a monthly basis, but to do so multiple times within each and every month for their entire dataset going back to January 1880. And to corroborate that some sort of agenda is driving all these adjustments, NOAA's end result is always an enhancement of the 'Obama-warming' phenomenon.
Speaking of January 1880, NOAA has also reported 27 different temperatures for that month in 2012. This single example of the bizarre fabrication of global temperatures simply makes a mockery of climate science and the historical evidence, which is cause enough for any sane person to conclude that the "global warming" that NOAA scientists speak of is essentially a bunch of bullshit.
One last thought. There are those who attempt to justify the ludicrous level of adjustments to the historical measurements as a "quality control" process being rigorously conducted by NOAA researchers. Rest assured though, the above two charts (red and blue) are actual proof that NOAA "scientists" must exist in some bizarro 'QC' world that is at the level of Six Sigma weirdness (in a bad way).
In conclusion, the blatant and politically-driven temperature adjustments being performed by NOAA/NCDC on a monthly basis provides even further ammunition as to why the world needs to move to a better and more accurate methodology towards temperature measurement and reporting. Ironically, it is NOAA itself that has already conducted a large experiment, and in doing so, proving their monthly bizarre battle with the empirical evidence is truly unnecessary and superfluous.
Note: 'C3' has downloaded 27 different NOAA global temperature datasets from the NOAA web server during 2012. There actually could have been more than 27 since 'C3' may have missed several revisions over the course of 2012.
Global warming science facts can be very disturbing at times - NOAA has been a leader in fabricating temperatures (faux warming), which many view as faux (fake) climate science
(click on image to enlarge)
'C3' and others have often written about the fabrication of global warming by various climate agencies around the world. NOAA has been at the forefront of "adjusting" historical temperatures to fabricate increased warming for modern decades (1960's and more recent) and increased cooling for the earlier decades (pre-1960's).
The adjacent chart visually depicts the changes to monthly global temperatures that NOAA has made since 2008 (updated through May 2012). Since 2008 they have "adjusted" every single month back to January 1880 (that's 1,548 months of "adjusted" empirical evidence through 2008) except for one solitary month (December 2006).
The chart is a plot of coolest temperature adjustment to the warmest temperature adjustment - from left to right. Summary factoids below:
1. Out of 1,548 monthly temperature records, NOAA "cooled" 754 months
a. 49% of all months had their historical temperatures lowered
b. Total "cooling" applied was -29C degrees
2. Out of 754 "cooled" months, only 17 of those had dates post-1959.
a. That's only 2% - one would naturally expect close to 50% of all cooled months to be post-1959 if adjustments were applied with robust scientific rationale
3. Out of 1,548 monthly temperature records, NOAA "warmed" 793 months
a. 51% of all months had their historical temperatures raised
b. Total "warming" applied was +23C degrees
4. Out of 793 "warmed" months, 570 had dates post-1959
a. That's 72% - not exactly random; more like adjustments due to a non-scientific rationale
7. One example of wacky (nonsensical) adjacent temperature adjustments
a. December 1881 = +0.10C deg (adjusted up since 2008)
b. January 1882 = -0.02C deg (adjusted down since 2008)
Keep in mind, when reviewing the above factoids and chart that these are NOAA adjustments made to historical temperatures (January 1, 1880 thru December 31, 2008) since 2008. The NOAA adjustments to the historical temperature dataset made prior to 2008 have also been massive, as indicated here by an Oak Ridge National Laboratory analysis.
Clearly, since the Obama election of 2008, NOAA has pursued a frequent policy of temperature adjustments (literally monthly) to meet some non-scientific objective. Their methodology has primarily consisted of lowering the majority of temperature records prior to 1960 and raising those post-1959. The cumulative effect of all these adjustments is to build a better case that modern warming is a result of human CO2 emissions.
No other major climate science agency has pursued such an aggressive (ie, frequent) process of fabricating temperatures.
Finally, some proponents of the NOAA methodology attempt to rationalize all these adjustments as "quality control/management" which is patently absurd. During 2012 alone, NOAA has "quality control" adjusted the entire historical temperature record at least 18 times - for example, they have reported at least 18 different temperatures for January 1880 over the past 5 months. This is not "quality control" in any sense that experts of quality control would understand. Instead, it's ludicrous faux-science for non-scientific reasons, month after month, plain and simple.
Conclusion: The global warming science facts are that NOAA promotes a fake style of climate science by essentially fabricating temperatures - it's enhanced modern "global warming," either by raising or cooling the appropriate temperature records.
Corruption of climate science takes all sorts of forms - one is to fabricate global warming temperatures after the fact, using "correcting" algorithms that NASA / GISS favors, which it now appears to have been outsourced to a Google-funded effort - aka 'Google Warming'
Read here and here. The combined revelations of Climategate and Fakegate have well documented the culture of corruption and conspiracy that IPCC climate science has unleashed on the world over the past few decades. The revelations also unleashed the unbelievable condoning and cheerleading of actual scientific fraud, lies and fabrication by many in academia and journalism - is it any wonder the public's belief in climate science is plummeting.
One especially nefarious means of climate science corruption is to fabricate global warming temperatures from the original dataset of historical temperatures. Unfortunately for the public and policymakers, the fabricating of fake temperatures to boost the political agenda of global warming alarmists has been a preferred technique of major climate "research" agencies, even to the extreme of multiple fabrications within a month's time period.
For example, the adjacent chart reveals the recent 2011 fabrication of regional temperatures in Iceland that even the Icelandic Meteorological Office states is "grossly in error."
"...that GHCN have created a false warming trend in Iceland and Greenland , and GISS have amended every single temperature record on their database for Reykjavik going back to 1901...as the blue line shows, have magically made this warm period disappear, by reducing the real temperatures by up to nearly 2 degrees...Meanwhile the Iceland Met Office say that “The GHCN "corrections" are grossly in error in the case of Reykjavik”."
The adjustments done to historical temperatures during 2011 provides further evidence that climate data corruption is alive and well within the climate science community. But the big surprise is who actually performed the magical global warming of Arctic regions....
"To isolate these “abrupt shifts”, they use an algorithm. And it was changes to this algorithm in July 2011 by a Google Summer Student[add'l info here]...that suddenly produced this swathe of anomalous adjustments in Greenland, Iceland and Siberia. The Icelandic Met have confirmed that there have been no station moves or other non-climatic factors, which would have created the need for the adjustments in Iceland, and of course the algorithms in use previously in GHCN V2 and V3 did not spot anything unusual in the temperature data."
Voila, we can now add the term 'Google Warming' to the climate debate - perhaps understood to mean the following?: "to fabricate global warming."
Previous Lubchenco's NOAA "Science" Posts here, here and here.
Last time we checked, 'Lubchenco Science' had accomplished 3 full revisions of the entire historical temperature dataset during January, adding to the 6 known full revisions done in December.
Surprise!....Lubchenco has managed to squeeze another full revision of the entire temperature dataset in the last few days - making it at least 4 for January.
NOAA is now up to 10 full revisions since October - they refer to their constant revising of the historical data going back to 1880 as "quality control." In contrast, NASA/GISS, HadCRUT, UAH and RSS have not revised their entire datasets once during the last two months.
The NOAA under Lubchenco's control continues to make a mockery of empirical-based science as global warming fabrication continues unchecked
This is an update from the two previous posts, here and here. During the month of December, NOAA / NCDC revised their published historical temperature dataset at least 6 times - affecting monthly historical temperatures going back to 1880. These major revisions were not constrained to just a few recent months or a few recent years, but to all the historical empirical records.
If doing it 6 times in December wasn't bizarre enough, the NOAA "scientists" have already revised the entire dataset 3 times during January (the month isn't even over yet). [Ed. Good news: No new revised datasets in last 2 days, which means the incessant changes may be halted until next month]
Since the Obama administration takeover of NOAA / NCDC, it has been on a tear to fabricate global warming, conducting major temperature fabrication on an almost monthly basis, which has now culminated to producing multiple major revisions per month. (click to enlarge images)
(Above is a sample of revisions, including 2 (of 3) done in January 2012.)
Defenders of Lubchenco's empirical evidence revisionism refer to the constant revisions as "quality control" which is categorically one of the lamest piles of B.S. uttered in the debate on global warming. If the 'QC' defense had even an ounce of truth to it, it would mean every single previous revision had "quality control" issues even though each was a result of the same quality control process.
Plus, in contrast to the 7 major revisions done by NOAA / NCDC over the last 4 weeks, there has been only one major revision by GISS and zero for HadCRUT, UAH and RSS. (These other alphabet climate agencies do not do major revisions every single month, let alone multiple major revisions to the historical record within a month.)
Simply put, the 'big green' activist Lubchenco must have a political agenda that calls for the NCDC dataset exhibiting more "global warming."
Needless to say, her servile puppet-scientists have performed that task since 2008, month-in and month-out, as the change in the global warming trend exhibits (red is new trend; blue is old) in the adjacent chart.
[Bonus recommendation to NOAA/ NCDC: Publish only one set of numbers per month; avoid changing historical temperatures prior to 1990; and, make future changes random so that they don't appear to be purposefully warming specific periods while cooling others. Food for thought.]
BTW, this Excel chart represents the typical way that alarmists portray "runaway" global warming. That red trend line leaves the impression that global warming will go through the roof by 2100. In fact though, that red trend line indicates a "global warming" of about +0.5°C by year 2100. To mislead the public and policymakers, alarmist scientists and the mainstream press typically avoid putting numeric linear trend information on the chart, for very obvious reasons.
An example of blatant data manipulation and temperature fabrication by climate scientists - "we need to make Iceland warmer"
Read here. Steve Goddard finds another classic example of temperature fabrication involving Iceland records. Misleading the public and policymakers has become a corrupt science art-form, unchallenged by the political ruling elites and their puppet, the mainstream press.
As this style of climate-liar "science" is applied to all past temperature records, large "man-made" global warming is a no-brainer.
The embarrassing outright fabrication of the global temperature dataset continues at NOAA / NCDC - Obama's anti-science regime not challenged by the mainstream press
How bizarre is changing historical temperatures, all the way back to 1880, on a monthly basis? Recently, we wrote about NOAA's monthly temperature revisionism and the political, anti-science agenda that's driving it, global warming alarmism. [Ed: part III here]
Well, it's definitely bizarre science since other major climate agencies are not doing the same.
Amazingly though, the NOAA / NCDC agencies are now seemingly dissatisfied with just monthly fabrications. They apparently have now embraced almost daily revisionism of historical temperatures.
Although we did not check the NOAA / NCDC dataset on a daily basis during the month of December, we did check six times, downloading six different historical datasets. Did we say bizarro? (image source)
There is no rational explanation for continuously fabricating a new historical temperature dataset multiple times during a month, let alone a year. [Note: You can download the six December 2012 revisions of historical data by Obama's "science" team here.]
Of course, the mainstream press (e.g. NYT, WaPo, CNN, LA Times, BBC, Newsweek, CBS, MSNBC, etc.) refuses to report on the actual bogus and fraud Bernie Madoff-like science that is being perpetrated by their comrades in the climate science bureaucracy. Obviously, for the left / liberal / progressive / Democrat anti-science mindset, fabricating empirical evidence is not bizarro.....
From Wikipedia: "...introduced the strange speech patterns that became synonymous with the character, with all of Bizarro's comments meaning the opposite (e.g.. "bad" means "good")."
[Editor's special note: The NOAA/NCDC revisions this post is about are entire historical temperature dataset revisions being done multiple times per year and even multiple times per month (December 2011). We are not referring to the common practice of revising the temperatures of a few recent months that is done by all climate agencies frequently.]
To promote the global warming scare, Jane Lubchenco's NOAA continuously changes past temperature records to create fake warming - on a monthly basis
When one starts working with temperature data from various climate research agencies, one begins to notice rather bizarre style of science that would likely qualify as fraud in the mind of a normal person. In the case of NOAA / NCDC, this Obama "science" research group is demonstrably fabricating new "global warming" every single month. [Ed: Updates here and here]
Below is a simple example of the historical temperature record changes being done by Obama's NOAA on a monthly basis:
As can be seen, literally, Jane Lubchenco and her team are changing historical temperature records each and every month (note how they have "warmed" May 2008 since the NOAA report of December 2008) - even changing the historical record back to the very beginning, the January 1880 temperature record.
We asked a well known climate expert, Dr. Timothy Ball, if what Obama's NOAA / NCDC climate scientists are doing is common in the general science community: that is, is it common to constantly revise historical empirical evidence? Here is his response:
"Absolutely Not. There are adjustments to the raw data done by each nation when it collects the data. For me there are even questions about this, but it means that what goes to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and then to the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) and used as “raw data” is already adjusted. Post-collection adjustments are unnecessary and unacceptable."
With that said, it appears Lubchenco's NOAA is conducting a corrupt-like style of science that amounts to an Orwellian revision of history and empirical evidence. Not necessarily a surprise when a left / progressive 'Big Green' political hack is put in charge.
So what has been Jane's impact on temperature history with all these small revisions being done on a monthly basis? Well...one would expect that proponents of global warming alarmism would want to make modern temperatures warmer and earlier temperatures cooler.
Surprise! That exact politically-correct green agenda is robustly being carried out by NOAA's "scientists" as seen below.
The above record of temperature change over the four months since July 2011, by NOAA & NCDC personnel, is definitely not random. There is a significant man-made pattern to the cooling and warming changes.
Soooo...since Obama's "science" team has been in place, how much have they changed the historical temperature records?
Examining the historical record changes since 2008, the same pattern emerges with warming changes dominating after 1951 - "Unequivocal" global warming by humans indeed! Those cooling changes dominate the period prior to 1940. Lubchenco even provides "unequivocal" global cooling on demand - what an amazing goddess of left / liberal / progressive science!
Back to the facts. And when comparing the left axis of both charts, it becomes abundantly clear that all those small changes done on a monthly basis by NOAA starts accumulating to become ever larger changes over a few years. Obviously, Obama's team believes in man-made warming, especially when they can simply accomplish it on their PCs.
Most importantly for policymakers and the public, the above data falsification is good reason not to trust anything the green activist Jane Lubchenco says, nor any of her NOAA / NCDC minions carrying out her political agenda.
Special note: During the month of December 2011, NOAA / NCDC had at least 4 different6 different versions of their global dataset available for download from its ftp site. Older versions are overwritten by the newer versions as they are uploaded by the agency (NCDC uses the same file name over and over apparently). NASA's GISS uploaded their first major revision of the year (December 2011) that affects all historical temperatures. The HadCRUT series has not had a major (entire historical dataset) revision this year from what we know.
How does the BEST temperature dataset relate to the datasets of the major climate agencies? Using the BEST monthly anomaly data and the handy Excel correlation function, since 2001 the BEST dataset matches up quite well with the NCDC and CRU data, as the adjacent chart shows.
In essence, when NCDC and CRU temperatures 'zig,' the BEST temps are probably doing the same.
And GISS temps? Not so well. In fact, it's the worst. In contrast, when BEST and the other agency anomalies are 'zigging,' GISS is likely to be 'zagging.' This GISS divergence problem also extends to its performance versus the RSS and UAH satellite datasets, as previously pointed out by skeptics.
Why doesn't the GISS dataset comport with climate reality as documented by other sources and experts? Hmmm...one thinks global warming fame and fortune is not likely to visit those who report modest or little warming.
Since it is now clear that GISS isn't up to the "BEST" standards of science, and there is no good reason for NASA to be in the temperature reporting business in the first place, it's time to fold the GISS tent and save taxpayers some money - outsource the GISS efforts to BEST and be done with it.
Now that BEST has shown GISS to be a wasteful, error-prone (remember the Y2K error) redundancy, maybe it's time to shine a bright light on the idiocy emanating from NOAA's NCDC - their temperature dataset should also be on the hot seat of scrutiny also.
Here is an agency that seemingly has the bizarre mission to change historical temperature anomalies on a monthly basis - literally, every single month. Take the very first month of the NCDC temperature dataset, January 1880. Over the past six months, NCDC has changed the January 1880 anomaly six (6) times.
Sept. 2011 version of January 1880: -0.0443
Aug. 2011 version of January 1880: -0.0474
July 2011 version of January 1880: -0.0468
June 2011 version of January 1880: -0.0444
May 2011 version of January 1880: -0.0439
April 2011 version of January 1880: -0.0428
And it's not just a single month they perform this type of climate science magic on. When NCDC reported the anomalies dataset for the September 2011 reporting period, NCDC had changed every single historical month's anomaly as reported in the August 2011 dataset. They changed all 1,580 months of past temperature reporting, adding in a cumulative warming of +0.0966 in a single stroke! Did we say bizarre yet?
The folks at HadCRU don't practice this blatant monthly form of "global warming" revisionism. The folks at GISS aren't constantly revising historical temperature reporting on a monthly basis. And it's hard to imagine that BEST research team would condone, let alone practice, this style of empirical climate evidence tampering.
If BEST plays their cards right and performs in an upright, objective manner, it's not hard imagining that all of the GISS and NCDC temperature measurement/reporting efforts (not necessarily climate analysis and modeling) being on the chopping block. This would likely result in the U.S. finally having a 'BEST'-of-breed global surface temperature reporting system that could be taken seriously by all sides of the debate.
Read here. Over 2,000 previous peer-reviewed studies are severely tainted with bad data from the often used ERA-40 Reanalysis regarding Arctic region temperature trends. Researchers Screen and Simmonds concluded that this dataset should no longer be relied on in future studies, which implies that many past studies indicating Arctic warming are robustly in error.
Essentially, group-think consensus science by "experts" at its worst: "Hey...why don't we all use the same computer output for every Arctic study." Brilliant.
"This study explicitly documents a discontinuity in the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) that leads to significantly exaggerated warming in the Arctic mid- to lower troposphere, and demonstrates that the continuing use of ERA-40 to study Arctic temperature trends is problematic...Decadal or multidecadal Arctic temperature trends calculated over periods that include 1997 are highly inaccurate...It is shown that ERA-40 is poorly suited to studying Arctic temperature trends and their vertical profile, and conclusions based upon them must be viewed with extreme caution. Consequently, its future use for this purpose is discouraged."....."Such an error not only affects the Arctic troposphere, but necessarily must effect the entire northern hemisphere jet stream."[James A. Screen, Ian Simmonds 2011: Journal of Climate]
Read here. Per new peer-reviewed study by Genthon et al., it appears that the recent modest warming in Antarctica may likely be due to erroneous readings from a specific type of thermometer.
"Observations of atmospheric temperature made on the Antarctic plateau with thermistors housed in naturally (wind) ventilated radiation shields are shown to be significantly warm biased by solar radiation. High incoming solar flux and high surface albedo result in radiation biases in Gill (multiplate) styled shields that can occasionally exceed 10°C in summer in case of low wind speed...Although stronger and more frequent when incoming solar radiation is high, biases exceeding 8°C are found even when solar is less than 200 Wm−2." [Christophe Genthon, Delphine Six, Vincent Favier, Matthew Lazzara, Linda Keller 2011: Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology]
Read here. It's become common knowledge that the UN's IPCC objective is not one of impartial, scientific analysis of climate change but instead one biased towards political governance and economic control goals. As a result, significant, non-CO2 impacts on global warming are either ignored or trivialized by the IPCC. The urban heat island (UHI) effect on temperature records is one such impact that the IPCC keeps trying to minimize but the actual science keeps refuting the IPCC's agenda-driven science.
Yang et al. published an extensive study on the impact of UHI on China's warming and discovered that over 40% of the increase could be explained by the UHI effect in some urban areas. This study represents additional empirical evidence that significant global warming is not exclusively due to the IPCC's politically correct causation, CO2 emissions.
"Monthly mean surface air temperature data from 463 meteorological stations, including those from the 1981–2007 ordinary and national basic reference surface stations in east China and from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis, are used to investigate the effect of rapid urbanization on temperature change...The trends of urban heat island (UHI) effects...are generally consistent and indicate that rapid urbanization has a significant influence on surface warming over east China. Overall, UHI effects contribute 24.2% to regional average warming trends. The strongest effect of urbanization on annual mean surface air temperature trends occurs over the metropolis and large city stations, with corresponding contributions of about 44% and 35% to total warming, respectively. The UHI trends are 0.398°C and 0.26°C decade. [Xuchao Yang, Yiling Hou, Baode Chen 2011: Journal of Geophysical Research]
Saw Lucia's post about NOAA/NCDC global temperatures being warmer in April, and boy was she right. The April data that NOAA/NCDC has posted on their FTP site has had major adjustments done to it since the March 2011 dataset.
The total cumulative warming that NOAA added to the dataset was 3.42 degrees of anomaly. In summary, from 1880 to 1902, global temperatures were adjusted warmer; from 1902 to 1955, the monthly global temperatures were made consistently cooler; and since 1955, they religiously increased global warming by adjusting up the temperature for most months. This is what taxpayer funded, bureaucrat-scientists call "science."
This is not a new fabrication phenomenon. This has been done multiple times previously, with each having the exact same outcome: cool the earlier years, then bake the later years.
The world's major climate agencies are all on a mission to convince policymakers and the public that global warming is "unequivocal." Because current temperatures are not much different than those warm years in the 1930's, NOAA has cooled the earlier periods, then warmed the later years to reach global warming nirvana - "unprecedented."
(click on image to enlarge) Why isn't this unequivocal and unprecedented temperature fabrication reported by the "science" reporters at the NYT, WAPO or CBS? Well, they decided long ago not to report the accurate and objective truth about climate evidence due to their liberal/left biases - and, btw, 'gloom & doom' sells more papers and makes profits, thank you very much!
Update: Should have noted the new NOAA/NCDC anomalies are the result of their referenced new 'Version 3' of the data.
Update 2: For more context, the below cumulative temperature adjustments (multiple) that NOAA/NCDC have "produced" since 2008.
Update 3: The below shows the amount of adjustment made on each month since publication of the 2008 NOAA/NCDC dataset. Again, it's clearly the bureaucrat-scientists' objective to make recent global warming appear greater than it was in contrast to the earlier 20th century.
Read here and here. Let's say you are a NASA climate scientist and have been on record for a very long time that the world is warming due to human CO2 emissions - despite the evidence to the contrary. And let's say you decide to produce a new study to absolutely prove your case by showing how the oceans are heating due to an energy imbalance.
"Improving observations of ocean temperature confirm that Earth is absorbing more energy from the sun than it is radiating to space as heat, even during the recent solar minimum. This energy imbalance provides fundamental verification of the dominant role of the human-made greenhouse effect in driving global climate change."
Finally, let's say you want to enhance your study with graphs that will bolster your case. Then you would use the below graph if you're a NASA scientist with a political agenda, with the actual empirical science being a lower priority. (click on images to enlarge) (image source)
Notice the 1980 starting point for the above graph. Why do you think a NASA scientist would start the graph at 1980 when there is data all the way back to 1955? Oh, here's why. (image source)
Obviously, the ocean heat data prior to 1980 reveals both large increases and decreases of an inconvenient nature that the NASA scientist does not want to bring any attention to.
Of course, if the NASA scientist wasn't just pursuing a political agenda he might of also have brought attention to the fact that the majority of ocean basins (5 of 7) have recently been losing heat, or are flat, in direct contrast with his hypothesis that they are gaining from a CO2-caused energy "imbalance." (image source)
And, if the NASA scientist really desired to mislead policymakers, he would be sure not to include the sea surface temperatures as shown below. Gee, global sea temps seem to be highly variable with a recent significant decline, which neither condition seems to match the NASA "analysis" that oceans are overheating because of an energy "imbalance." (image source)
Wouldn't it be great if we could still trust that our government scientists are objective and truthful, sans their personal and political agenda bullshit?
Updated 4/24/2011: Anthony Watts calls Hansen on the bullshit cherrypicking also. And he describes the new Hansen Mt. Pinatubo hypothesis 'total bollocks.'
Read here. Dr. Richard Muller, a highly acclaimed Berkley physicist and author of Physics for Future Presidents, is joining with other prominent scientists in an all out effort to establish an accurate and transparent global temperature data record that policymakers can hopefully believe and rely on. It's called the BEST project.
Existing temperature databases maintained by NASA, NOAA/NCDC and HadCRUT have been highly tainted by political agenda-driven science, to the point where empirical-based scientists are incredulous about many of the "accelerating," "unequivocal" and "unprecedented" global warming claims. In this video, it is painfully clear that Dr. Muller knows that existing, fabricated temperature records are highly suspect.
And how about the reporting on this important and unique climate science endeavor from the New York Times and Washington Post? Nada. Zilch. Goose egg. Nil. Zip. Over the last 60 days, the NYT has had 68 stories referencing global warming and the Washington Post has had 97 - none of which reported on Muller's BEST project.
Why is that the case? The NYT and Wapo have invested substantially in publicizing the extreme, hysterical claims of global warming alarmists, which this new climate project ultimately threatens. If either newspaper started publishing the truth about climate science, there would have to be a lots of 'splainin' to do to their readership. Instead, they keep the liberal/left audience in the dark with "leading edge" science reporting on global warming like this.
In the meantime, here's one global temperature chart that NYT and Wapo readers won't ever see - the actual global warming reality from high technology, instead of fabrication. (click on image to enlarge)
Read here and here. Although it is empirically obvious that temperatures world-wide have increased from the trough of the Little Ice Age over the last two centuries, the level of temperature increase that NASA claims is in the realm of scientific fraud. Unfortunately, temperature fabrication has become a very misleading and black art at NASA.
In order to influence policymakers about the "reality" of global warming, NASA fabricates temperature charts like this one for Honolulu.....,
which is obviously disconnected from the actual temperature reality. (click on images to enlarge)
This type of disgraceful scientific evidence tampering by NASA has so blemished the reputation of science, a group of prominent and empircal-based scientists are now taking direct action to establish a credible and objective record of global temperatures. A record that policymakers and the public could actually believe, and potentially act on - based on reality, not the exaggerated falsehoods being currently fabricated.
Read here. IPCC-Climategate scientists continue to pursue their political agenda by any means possible, including blatant temperature fabrication. Of course, the notorious example of this was the infamous IPCC "hockey stick" that was later proven to be a statistical fraud, for a variety of reasons. Then, of course, there are the NASA climate "scientists" who obviously were committed to proving that 1998 was warmer than 1934, and by god, a decade of dedicated fabrication made it happen: 'Mission Accomplished,' as they say.
After ridding the world of the Medieval Warming Period and the hot 30's of the 20th century, the Climategate scientists then turned their attention on that global warming laggard, commonly referred to as Antarctica. Unfortunately for the IPCC and Climategate scientists, Antarctica was not warming as predicted by the AGW hypothesis, thus the call went out that "Antarctica needs to be warmed-up"!
Sure enough, in a timely manner, a study was produced that found that Antarctica was warming. As it turns out though, when the Antarctica temperature dataset used in this study was analyzed by statistical/mathematical experts in a later peer-reviewed study, it was discovered that the Climategate scientists had used bizarre techniques to prove Antarctica was warming.
In a nutshell, the IPCC associated scientists used the warming that had occurred in the sliver of geography known as the Antarctica peninsula and then literally pushed that "warming" across the entire continent, conveniently replacing real-world empirical temperature data. In review, the only reason for this lame fabrication of a Antarctica warming trend was an attempt to convince policymakers and the public that the weak AGW hypothesis was valid in the southern polar region, when it actually wasn't.
"Firstly see what happens when you add some warming to stations in the Peninsula. As you go from left to right in the map below, more and more warming is being added, but only to the peninsula stations. However, mangled by Steig's algorithm, this extra warmth turns up as warming, not in the Peninsula, but in West Antarctica."
As they say, read the rest of the above linked posting for additional explanation. For a more in depth analysis, read expert Ryan O'Donnell's detailed explanation here - it's truly eye-opening what lengths Climategate scientists will take to accomplish their political, non-scientific mission.
Read here. As the New Zealand climate authorities recently admitted to wholesale temperature fabrication, it is important to note that other national climate agencies continue policies of blatant fabrication. NASA's GISS research unit is still on a personal quest to make 1998 hotter than by 1934, which they appeared to have finally acheived.
Despite 65 years of 1934 being recorded as the hottest U.S. year, NASA's James Hansen and his personal minions turned up the heat furnace on 1998 and the A/C on 1934. Over a decade of effort they finally achieve their result, a fabricated temperature record that the lame mainstream media (NYT, Wapo, AP, NBC, etc.) duly reports without mentioning to the public that NASA's temperatures have been faked.
"Why? Well, given steadily rising CO2 levels, and the high warming sensitivity of virtually all climate models to CO2, it would have been, let us say inconvenient, for 1998 to have been bested by a hot golden oldie from over 60 years previous! Kind of like your great grandpa beating you in a foot race."
"Sato’s first report, dated July 1999, shows 1934 with an impressive lead of over half a degree (0.541ºC to be exact) above 1998.....OOPS, the hot race continued after the FOIA email! I checked the tabular data at GISS Contiguous 48 U.S. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly (C) today and, guess what? Since the Sato FOIA email discussed above, GISS has continued their taxpayer-funded work on both 1998 and 1934. The Annual Mean for 1998 has increased to 1.32ºC, a gain of a bit over an 11th of a degree (+0.094ºC), while poor old 1934 has been beaten down to 1.2ºC., a loss of about a 20th of a degree (-0.049ºC). So, sad to say, 1934 has lost the hot race by about an eighth of a degree (0.12ºC)."
Read here and here. Climate "scientists" across the world have been blatantly fabricating temperatures in hopes of convincing the public and politicians that modern global warming is unprecedented and accelerating.
The scientists doing the fabrication are usually employed by the government agencies or universities, which thrive and exist on taxpayer research dollars dedicated to global warming research. A classic example of this is the New Zealand climate agency, which is now admitting their scientists produced bogus "warming" temperatures for New Zealand.
"NIWA makes the huge admission that New Zealand has experienced hardly any warming during the last half-century. For all their talk about warming, for all their rushed invention of the “Eleven-Station Series” to prove warming, this new series shows that no warming has occurred here since about 1960. Almost all the warming took place from 1940-60, when the IPCC says that the effect of CO2 concentrations was trivial. Indeed, global temperatures were falling during that period.....Almost all of the 34 adjustments made by Dr Jim Salinger to the 7SS have been abandoned, along with his version of the comparative station methodology."
Read here. Other than the typical lamebrain MSM reporters (scroll down to Arctic temps "reported" by George Monbiot), just about everyone else knows that NASA completely fabricates modern hot Arctic temperatures from wishful alarmist thinking.
NASA's blatantly, bogus temperatures (lies?) are an attempt to scare the public into thinking the ice sheets of Greenland are quickly melting away because of unprecedented "high" temperatures, including those maximum high temperatures forecasted for the ice sheet this week: an average of a -35°F (yes, minus) for the daily high temps. Obviously, the northern ice sheets are safe despite the bogus NASA and Monbiot Arctic alarmism.
While NASA's computer jocks spend their time and our money on fabricating fake temperatures, real scientists continue to conduct expert scientific research on the Arctic. Their latest peer-reviewed findings confirm a previous study that the Medieval Period experienced Arctic temperatures some 2-3°C higher than modern Arctic temps. Map source here.
"We have generated a ~5,000 year long, decadally-resolved record of summer water temperature from the annually-laminated sediments of Lower Murray Lake on Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic. The varved sediments of Lower Murray Lake allowed high-resolution sampling and excellent chronologic control of the sedimentary record.....Most strikingly, the alkenone record reveals warm lake water temperatures beginning ~800 AD and persisting until ~1200 AD, with temperatures up to 2-3 deg C warmer than the mean temperature for the past 100 years. This dramatic medieval warm period on Ellesmere Island interrupted a distinct (neoglacial) cooling trend that had begun approximately 2000 years earlier." [D'Andrea, W. J.; Bradley, R. S. 2010]
Within the last few days, NCDC released a revised global temperature data set stretching all the way back to 1880. The chart below shows the monthly changes NCDC made to temperature anomalies based on the previous data set, which was the global temperature anomaly record through October 2010. (click on images to enlarge)
[Note: New NCDC data, source here. Previous (October 2010) NCDC global temp anomaly data here. The chart depicts the monthly difference between these two NCDC data sets.]
Amazingly, they found mucho, newly discovered degrees of global warming during the late 19th century. (How did they miss all this "warming" during their last fabrication revision of global temperatures way back in 2009?)
What the chart above also clearly indicates are major changes (cooling adjustments) to the global temperature record starting around 1938. The cooling adjustments continue up through 1965. After 1965, the majority of the adjustments made to the old 2009 temperature record are of "global warming" nature.
The chart below shows the cumulative adjustments for the two periods: 1938-1965 and 1966-2010. Based on this simple analysis, it is clear why NOAA/NCDC continues to fabricate revise global temperature records - they need to "cool" down the 1930 and 1940's and "heat" up modern temperatures to lend credence to the very wobbly AGW hypothesis.
Read here and here. Gotta love that headline. Amateurs taking it to the "experts" and then winning - very cool, in a non-temperature sort of way.
A group of interested individuals (amateur climate enthusiasts) took serious issue with the mathematical/statistical techniques used by climate-scientists to reconstruct Antarctic temperatures in a 2009 peer-reviewed study. As it turns out, this group of amateurs were better versed in proper mathematical/statistical analysis than the experts, and they brought that specific expertise to bear on the 2009 temperature reconstruction study. Objectively, even AGW alarmists are praising their work!
The result of this new peer-reviewed study? The Antarctic climate is not this monolithic warming environment that the IPCC Climategate "experts" attempted to portray to the politicians and taxpayers in the 2009 study. Instead, like all other large regions of the globe, Antarctica exhibits areas of warming, cooling and temperature stability. [Ryan O’Donnell, Nicholas Lewis, Steve McIntyre, Jeff Condon (2010)]
Based on this new analysis (O’Donnell et al.), modern temperature trends are no threat to the continent-sized ice sheets. Antarctica is soooo cold, a half-degree per decade, either way, is of zero significance.
The image on the left indicates the corrected decadal temperature trends, which are miniscule: from -0.5 degrees to +0.5 degrees per decade. The image on the right is from the 2009 study, designed to show significant Antarctic warming across the entire continent. (click on image to enlarge)
Read here and here. Defeated by a candidate that did not share his NY Times' view of the climate change terror, the soon-to-be former Congressman Bob Inglis never was able to figure out that "global warming" was almost entirely fabricated by government scientists in their attempt to assure a stable source of research funding.
In his own state of South Carolina, it's very easy to see the fabrication of warming, yet because of Congressman Bob's stupidity and mental laziness, he was never able to distinguish between fact and science fiction. As a result of his stupidity and laziness, he got his keister booted from the D.C. country club by his electorate who were fed up with big government idiocy that has been unleashed on the public.
Soooo...where's that modern "global warming" that terrifies him? Well, it's certainly not in the actual temperature readings. One can only conjure up scary warming if the temperatures are "adjusted" - also known as fabricating, Bob. (click on images to enlarge)
Both of these South Carolina temperature charts are similar to all of those across the U.S. The actual raw temperature readings will show that recent temperatures are below those earlier in the 20th century. In order to create the modern "unprecedented" global warming, government "scientists" lowered the earlier 20th century temperatures and then raised the more recent temperatures.
And, it's also easy to spot the bogosity of these temperature adjustments since there is always a span somewhere in the middle (between the dotted green lines on these 2 charts) that reveals very little, if not zero, temperature adjustments being done.
The 'crooks and liars' of national climate research centers across the globe have generated these bogus adjustments, which are now finally being exposed as the leading cause of "global warming," not human CO2.
Why has it taken so long to expose the global temperature fabrications? A couple of reasons. First, you have MSM science reporters who are basically clueless and do nothing but press-release-reporting (they read a scientist's press release and then repeat what it says - like a trained parrot). Another reason is the fact there are a lot of politicians like Bob Inglis who are too stupid and too lazy to do their job properly.
In his next career, don't be surprised if Bob becomes the newest ex-Republican to become a 'Big Green' shill, or even a science-parrot reporter - both careers seemingly require personalities with high stupidity and laziness quotients.
Notes: South Carolina temperature graphs can be found here. The above has the adjusted temperature chart (black curves) superimposed on the raw temperature chart (red curves).
What do climate scientists-bureaucrats do when they need to convince policymakers that global warming is "accelerating" and "unprecedented"? Well.....what would crooks and liars do if faced with the same challenge? They would cook-the-books in order for the scam to be believable.
How would one cook the global warming books? As it turns out, it's easy for scientists to do. One, prior warm temperatures need to be "cooled" down and then later temperatures need to be "warmed" up. This is exactly what the National Climate Data Center accomplished in 2009 with their new global temperature series.
First, the NCDC cooled down the hot 1920 and 1930's by adjusting temps down at a per century rate of -33.7 degrees (a maximum cumulative temperature adjustment of -16.8 degrees). Next, they adjusted the post-WWII temperatures up (a cumulative positive temperature adjustment of 9.3 degrees), to the tune of a 12.9 degree per century warming trend - voila, instant Joe Romm-scary, accelerating and unprecedented global warming. (click on image to enlarge)
As a result of the climate scientists and climate research agencies cooking the books, in their attempt to prove global warming is worse than reality, the public no longer is buying into the global warming hysteria, and is rapidly losing faith in scientists, in general.
Most experts familiar with the climate science field can easily name the 'crooks and liars' responsible for the gross fabrication of temperatures. It would be pleasing to finally see these individuals and agencies be held responsible for their actions - those actions being purposefully designed to deceive both politicians and the public alike. But, instead of focusing on the past (investigating past climate science transgressions), the Republicans should focus on the future by establishing new polices and guidelines to prevent past instances of flagrant scientific abuse from reoccurring.
At a minimum, the GOP should relieve all NASA and NOAA climate research units of any future responsibility for temperature data collection, compilation and reporting. A different, single agency should be responsible for these temperature data functions with their single goal being the scientific/statistical accuracy and objective empiricism required for the policymakers' use.
Government advocates (bureaucrats and scientists) for global warming and CO2 emission policies should have zero responsibility for any of the most basic, fundamental data used in the policy debates - it's a massive conflict of interest if they are, and it has already proven to be self-destructive.
This is a policy softball the GOP can knock out of the park, and no "scientist" or "scientific" body could object to removing the temptation of fabricating temperatures once and for all. The GOP would be saving science from its worst-of-breed individuals and at the same time, minimizing the future science fraud in the climate change field.