Another spectacular climate model & "expert" prediction failure...the abysmal predictions generated out of billion-dollar climate models are well documented...predictions for water levels of the Great Lakes are no better....
(click on chart to enlarge)
The vicious combination of climate "experts" driven by a political-alarmist agenda and the indisputably incompetent climate models has long misled the taxpaying public and policymakers.
As the NOAA chart of the Great Lakes on the left clearly indicates, water levels are above the long-term averages. The predicted "tipping point" water level reduction from global warming and climate change is AWOL.
The frequent and spectacular prediction failures of the computer simulations and experts has been widely noted in the past.
Latest peer reviewed research determines that recent sea level rise along the coasts of northern Europe and the English Channel are within historical bounds experienced during the 19th and earlier 20th century periods.
Per the scientists from Australia, France, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, the actual empirical evidence points to a potential sea level rise by 2050 AD of 2.1 inches for the North Sea coast and 1.6 inches for the English Channel.
"In light of the findings of the international team of scientists participating in this significant study, it would appear that there is nothing unusual, unnatural or unprecedented about the rate of sea level rise throughout both the North Sea and the rest of the Global Ocean over the entire CO2-emitting course of the Industrial Revolution."
In summary, this study does not support the irrational, unsubstantiated current claims and predictions of sea level increases made by prominent GWN's who rely on projections from the discredited climate models. The recent and past sea level increase facts reveal the totally absurd and irresponsible, anti-science speculations of 36 to 120 inch rise for coastal waters.
Climate reality and the IPCC's predictions often wildly diverge. The well understood reason for this divergence is simply a result of the UN's political agenda, pushed aggressively by its bureaucrats and sponsored "scientists".
An example of its agenda science is shown in the adjacent plot of actual sea level rise versus 2100AD predictions. (click plot to enlarge)
At the bottom of the chart is the plot of actual sea level rise calculated by Colorado University using satellite measurements. Per this empirical evidence, the sea level trend since 1992 suggest that oceans will rise some 11 inches by 2100AD.
An 11" rise by century-end is definitely not a catastrophe and certainly an outcome that humans can adapt to/cope with. And clearly, it represents a 2100AD level substantially below the IPCC's predicted 24" rise.
The IPCC's prediction not only does not comport with climate reality, other expert research indicates that sea level rise by 2100AD will amount to only a 4-6" increase. Two recent studies, one by NOAA and another by China's experts, represent 'those stubborn facts' that are continually undermining the IPCC prediction fantasies.
When assessing future climate forecasts, it's best to remember that the IPCC's "scientific" reports are climate exaggerations produced by their mandated UN political agenda. Climate science reality is an entirely different animal, though.
As previous studies and data have indicated, sea levels are rising at a very modest rate.
The newest research has determined sea level are only rising one-third as much as predicted by the IPCC - that fraction represents a century-end rise of only 4 inches.
The top chart of actual NOAA sea level metrics was produced by Steve Goddard and it clearly shows that NOAA tide gauge measurements match what the new study found.
As with the exaggerations of "accelerating" global warming, the claims that rapid and dangerous sea level rise are entirely without scientific merit - yep, another bogus alarmist claim fails its validity test.
The fabrication-fraud-like technique of increasing both regional and global warming has many examples, including several that 'C3' has addressed.
It's no surprise then that scientists are also fabricating a faster rate of sea level increase along with higher sea levels.
Basically, this HockeySchtick article reveals that taxpayer funded scientists are literally figuratively cooking-the-books using satellite altimeter data. The accompanying sea level chart depicts the extent of the fabrication-bogosity.
This revelation of (acceptable?) "climate science" at University of Colorado just provides more proof that government supported scientists in climate research should not be trusted, primarily due their clear cut affection for agenda-science.
With climate science, being a skeptic and cynic is proving to be the best approach.
Although science fraud-like-bogosity appears to dominate climate research, the activity of bogus science is not an exclusive to climate science, unfortunately.
Proving Americans' assessment correct, the National Geographic is caught pushing obvious "science" B.S. about sea level rise.
Why the mainstream believes they can blatantly fear-monger over climate change and global warming, with gross distortions, in the internet age is, ..... well ..... exceptionally stupid.
This National Geographic cover is a perfect example of climate-BSing that Americans don't need in a serious debate about science - a National Enquirer's level of sensationalism in a "science journal" is simply worthless.
Note: Per the NYC tide gauge trend, by year 2100, sea levels near the statue will have risen by some 9.6 inches - the National Geographic cover is a gross distortion, visual-lies one could say, designed to mislead. For more accurate information, a variety of empirical evidence sea level rising charts.
The IPCC's climate models and multiple government climate "experts" have proven time and again that they are completely unable to make reliable predictions of global climate attributes - this time, the climate reality wake-up call finds Australian government scientists to be wildly wrong regarding their "accelerating" sea level predictions
(click on image to enlarge, image source, temperature data)
As has now become well established, climate experts and their climate models have done an abysmal job at predicting global temperatures. This spectacular prediction failure has led to even greater failures for predictions of multiple climate attributes, including global sea levels.
A new study has analyzed the sea level prediction capabilities of Australian government experts and found extreme prediction failure, which is another resounding testament to the gigantic waste of climate research billions over the last few decades.
"In view of the data presented, we believe that we are justified to draw the following conclusions:
(1) The official Australian claim of a present sea level rise in the order of 5.4mm/year is significantly exaggerated
(2) The mean sea level rise from Australian tide gauges as well as global tide gauge networks is to be found within the sector of rates ranging from 0.1 to 1.5 mm/year
(3) The claim of a recent acceleration in the rate of sea level rise cannot be validated by tide gauge records, either in Australia or globally. Rather, it seems strongly contradicted
The practical implication of our conclusions is that there, in fact, is no reason either to fear or to prepare for any disastrous sea level flooding in the near future." [Nils-Axel Morner, Albert Parker 2013: Environmental Science]
1. Expert climate model predictions of catastrophic accelerating sea level increases are wildly wrong
2. CO2-centric climate models that focus almost entirely on the impact of human trace emissions of greenhouse gases produce erroneous and unreliable predictions for policymakers
3. The IPCC and large government computer climate models can't predict squat
Note: Chart has 36-month average HadCRUT4 global temperature curve (#7 maroon) superimposed.
The IPCC's discredited alarmist global warming propaganda took another serious hit from a major scientific study on the empirical evidence regarding accelerating sea levels - per the study, sea levels, due to natural, long-term oscillations, likely to increase only a scant 9 inches by century-end
The IPCC's refusal to incorporate and/or accept any empirical evidence that is contrary to their climate models' alarmist catastrophe predictions is well known. As a result, the IPCC's scary global warming predictions have been shown to be egregiously wrong and terribly misleading for policymakers.
The anti-science fantasy approach to the IPCC's political-driven "analysis" has suffered another major blow from a new study by Nicola Scafetta. This latest research confirms previous studies about just how wrong the IPCC has been about those "accelerating" sea level increases.
"This is a major paper, which undertakes a comprehensive review of recent studies, which diverge widely in their findings...main reason for divergence is the length of records used in studies, and shows that the quasi-cyclic oscillations of the major ocean basins largely account for the differences in those studies conclusions...it is shown that the periodicity of the major oscillations, being 60 to 70 years, require a minimum record length of around 110 years in order to prevent polynomial fitting of long term secular trends being contaminated with shorter term quasi-cyclic variation. Using tide gauge records going back as far as 1700...compares the trends in sea level rise acceleration at widely spread geographical locations once the quasi-cyclic components are removed and finds the long term global average to be very small – around 0.01mm/yr...study suggests that sea level rise during the C21st [21st century] will be around 277+/-7mm, or about 9 inches." [Nicola Scafetta 2013: Climate Dynamics]
1. An analysis of long-term empirical evidence confirms 20th and 21st sea level increases have been a function of long-term natural oscillation forces.
2. Potential sea level rise by end of century is highly likely to be less than a foot, well below the IPCC's "scientists'" predictions.
3. The IPCC's climate-model alarmism regarding dangerous, accelerating sea levels due to human CO2 emissions is without empirical merit - summarily, an IPCC fantasy.
The IPCC predicted that sea levels would rise to dangerous levels from CO2-induced climate change - satellite data for Hawaii and a new peer reviewed study eviscerates the IPCC's catastrophic global warming hysteria
The image on the left is the main Hawaiian Island with a red circle denoting the coastal region near the community of Captain Cook, Hawaii. The chart on the right is a plot of satellite data of Captain Cook coastal sea surface heights, and monthly atmospheric CO2 levels, since 1992.
Clearly, per the satellite data, the hysterical IPCC prediction that human CO2 emissions would cause dangerous, accelerating sea level rise and swamp Pacific Ocean islands is totally discredited. Not only has human CO2 not unleashed catastrophic sea level rises (i.e. climate change), human emissions have not unleashed rapidly increasing, catastrophic global warming.
Regarding global sea levels, a new peer reviewed study found that both satellite and tide gauge empirical observations indicate that sea levels are driven by a natural 60-year oscillation. Essentially, sea levels will naturally rise and fall regardless of atmospheric CO2 levels.
"Over the last decade," in the words of Chambers et al. (2012), "numerous papers have commented on the appearance of decadal and longer period fluctuations in select tide gauge records... And in their own study of long tide gauge records in every ocean basin, Chambers et al. find that there is, indeed, "a significant oscillation with a period around 60-years in the majority of the tide gauges examined during the 20th century."...they rightly state that the 60-year oscillation does change "our interpretation of the trends when estimated over periods less than one-cycle of the oscillation." And, therefore, they conclude that "although several studies have suggested the recent change in trends of global sea level rise reflects an acceleration, this must be re-examined in light of a possible 60-year oscillation [italics and bold added]," in further support of which contention they note that "there have been previous periods where the rate was decelerating..." [Don P. Chambers, Mark A. Merrifield, R. Steven Nerem 2012: Geophysical Research Letters]
1. Per the empirical satellite data, human CO2 emissions are not causing an accelerating sea level rise that is swamping Pacific Ocean islands, and thus causing a vast migration of climate change refugees (another hysterical IPCC prediction spread by climate liars).
2. Per scientific research, there exists a natural 60-year oscillation of sea surface heights that better explains sea height change than the alarmist CAGW hypothesis.
Almost all of the climate doomsday scientists have predicted that coastal areas, such as New York City, would soon be submerged by the rising sea levels - obviously, these hysterical IPCC climate model and "expert" predictions have failed and the Greenland researchers now know why
Read here. The IPCC was long ago charged with the objective of "proving" that greenhouse gases were the cause of global warming. The IPPC also took the lead in the well financed campaign to frighten the world's populace with scary disaster scenarios due to CO2-induced warming.
One such climate calamity that the IPCC (and multiple other doomsday alarmists) promulgate is that the coastal regions of the world would be swamped by the melting polar ice sheets.
However, like all other doomsday predictions, the seas rapidly and relentlessly rising and then submerging areas such as New York City has not happened, and is not even close to happening as the adjacent chart indicates. So, why have the sea level predictions failed so spectacularly?
The experts on Greenland's ice sheet have now discovered that the climate models are entirely wrong about the whole concept of ice sheet melting:
"Danish researchers are calling for the models used it [to] forecast sea level rise to be changed after their research shows that Greenland’s ice-cap is not melting more quickly, but rather in bursts...The group’s research, which has been published this week in the Science magazine, shows that the speed at which Greenland’s ice-cap melts, rises and falls in different periods...Up to now scientists have believed that Greenland’s ice was melting faster and have used the hypothesis in developing many of the climate models that are now used to calculate future sea-water levels.“The bottom line is that it’s not going to happen as quickly as people have feared...”"
Good news, the global warming science facts and reality prevail - the scary, dangerous rising sea level predictions are essentially a myth
(click images to enlarge)
#1. The actual sea level rise has just been a fraction of the scary Hollywood movie disaster scenarios
#2. Climate doomsday scientists, such as James Hansen, Heidi Cullen and Stefan Rahmstorf, predicted mythically high ocean levels, not because of science reality, but instead to emulate what Hollywood was doing to attract greater public attention
#3. Per the advanced satellite technology and ocean science, the real empirical evidence points to a sea level increase by 2100 that will literally be chump change, not the envisioned Hollywood (or Hansen et al.) mega-disaster
Since late 1992, satellites have been monitoring ocean levels constantly. The chart on the left plots the actual sea level rise (using inches instead of millimeters) in contrast to the IPCC's predicted sea level rise by 2100 AD, and common predictions of doomsday experts. The dotted aqua line is where sea levels will be if the current trend continues until 2100.
When the current sea level trend (+0.12 inch/year) is put into the context of the mega-scary predicted levels, the hysterical concerns about coastal flooding disasters are rationally reduced, dramatically. But to keep those irrational concerns high, here's how government-funded scientists portray the same sea level increase since 1992.
The chart on the top right compares the IPCC and other alarmist predictions, from the end of 2006 to April 2012, the most recent satellite measurement available. The blue bar is the actual amount the sea levels have increased, versus what the IPCC predicted increase for sea levels by April 2012. IPCC predicted sea level. The chart's higher red bars show increases by April 2012 for the often made alarmist predictions that the mainstream press reports uncritically (as gospel).
[Note: Why 2006? The IPCC 2007 report based its sea level prediction on measurements prior to 2007. We used the December 2006 satellite measurement as the base month, then calculated the April 2012 sea level increase (actual and all predicted values) from that 2006 base month. We first converted all measurements to inches then calculated each month's average sea level from multiple monthly measurements - satellites measure ocean levels 2-4 times per month.]
Conclusions: The high technology of satellite measurements produces some very clear global warming science facts. Since 1992, rising sea levels are on a very modest upward trend. Since the IPCC report of 2007, actual sea level increases are significantly below all "expert" predictions. The empirical evidence clearly points to future sea level increases that are very moderate (less than 1 foot by 2100) and can easily be adapted to by every government.
Read here. The United Nation's IPCC has been extremely open about their perversion of climate science and how the political agenda rules the roost (the UN's Rio conference being the next).
A key means to manipulate the world's policymakers and the public is to wildly exaggerate potential catastrophic disasters inferring a high likelihood. A favorite IPCC "disaster" is the rising seas caused by human CO2 emissions. A rise so high that will consume low-lying tropical islands and their cultures. But does that "looming" disaster have real merit?
Nope. Coastal tide gauges from around the world, documented in study after study, show that the current sea level rise is very modest and might reach a measly 3 to 7 inches by 2100.
But what about the vulnerable natives of Pacific island atolls? A recent peer reviewed article describes the situation of Tarawa of the Gilbert Islands.
"These common images of flooded homes and waves crashing across the causeways—collected during an anomalous event on islets susceptible to flooding due in part to local modifications to the environment—can provide the false impression that Tarawa is subject to constant flooding because of sea level rise...Many individual observations of erosion, flooding, or groundwater salinization, recorded in community consultations for internationally funded climate change adaptation programs, are thus attributed to climate change without scientific analysis...These events are presented as examples of climate change impacts in promotional materials and at international events...The failure to consider the contribution of natural variability and direct human modifications can lead to misattribution of flooding events or shoreline changes to sea level rise...Instead of incorrectly attributing individual flood events or shoreline changes to global sea level rise, scientists and climate communicators can use such occurrences to educate the public about the various natural and human processes that affect sea level, the shoreline, and the shape of islands."
Conclusion: The IPCC climate change reports include wild exaggerations about potential climate disasters. There is no empirical evidence supporting these looming disasters from human CO2 emissions. The United Nations promulgates these non-scientific claims as fact at UN-sponsored conferences in order to promote their wealth redistribution political agenda. A classic example of this misrepresentation is the fraud that Pacific islands will be swamped by an extraordinary sea level rise, exclusively from human CO2 emissions.
When determining the rate of global sea level rise, the best method is to conduct a tide gauge station data analysis - latest analysis reveals claims of "accelerating" sea level rise to be totally bogus
Read here. Multiple "scientific" personalities seeking fame, fortune and influence (such as the likes of Hansen, Cullen and Rahmstorf) have attempted to frighten the public and policymakers by stating that global warming was causing an acceleration of global sea level rise. Depending on the given personality, they predict that recent "acceleration" will cause sea levels to increase anywhere from 4 feet to 75 feet by 2100.
Empirically speaking, these "predictions" are utter nonsense with literally no facutal basis - and, btw, that's why exceptionally lazy and/or amazingly stupid NY Times and Washington Post "journalists" just love these hysterical claims.
Per the actual tide gauge data plots shown above though, it is more than obvious that the readers of the mainstream press have been significantly mislead by the catastrophic global warming hucksters. The chart on the left represents annual sea level change since 1900. The red line is the 10-year average.
One does not have to be a climate scientist to realize that this chart unequivocally reveals a pattern of constant annual variation in sea levels with absolutely zero acceleration.
The plot on the right, examines the 10-year average in even more more detail. Since 1900, the trend of the 10-yr average actually shows a deceleration, not an acceleration of sea level rise. Using the 10-yr average at the end of 2011 as the sea rise gospel, by year 2100, sea levels would only increase by some 7 inches - not exactly the millions of "climate refugees" type of catastrophe (another spectacularly wrong AGW huckster prediction) that the MSM has been caught parroting without due diligence.
Conclusion: The real world empricial evidence clearly exposes the global warming (AGW) catastrophic hucksterism that James Hansen et al. practice. Paul Homewood provided the above analysis of tide gauge station data analysis, but his work is not the only research proving that modern global sea level rise is modest and not accelerating in a catastrophic manner.
Read here. The predicted "accelerating" sea level rise has been a fearmongering staple of the IPCC's global warming alarmists and the mainstream press for decades. For pure hysteria sake, nothing beats the image of flooding populous coastal areas with the intent to frighten the public.
Unfortunately for the alarmists, the empirical evidence does not support their grossly speculative predictions from discredited climate models.
Firstly, the "accelerating" global sea level rise has not taken place as multiple research studies have documented.
Secondly, the alarmist creed that the melting of Greenland's glaciers would cause devastating ocean rises has been completely debunked by a new peer reviewed study on some 200+ glaciers on the world's largest island.
"...titled “21st Century Evolution of Greenland Outlet Glacier Velocities” [Moon et al.] examined the flow characteristics from nearly 200 glaciers across Greenland for the period 2000-2010 as analyzed using synthetic aperture radar data collected from various satellites...And what they found...was that the patterns of flow rate changes across Greenland were complex, both in space and time. Glaciers that were accelerating during a few years were found to be decelerating in others. Some accelerating glaciers were found in close proximity to other glaciers that were decelerating..."Finally, our observations have implications for recent work on sea level rise...Our wide sampling of actual 2000 to 2010 changes shows that glacier acceleration across the ice sheet remains far below these estimates, suggesting that sea level rise associated with Greenland glacier dynamics remains well below the low-end scenario (9.3 cm [3.7 inches] by 2100) at present...Our result is consistent with findings from recent numerical flow models."" [Twila Moon, Ian Joughin, Ben Smith, Ian Howat 2012: Science]
Conclusion: Accelerating global sea level rise from melting glaciers is not happening as predicted. The retreat of Greenland's glaciers is not a major contributor to sea level increases and there exists no empirical evidence that this will change by year 2100.
An expert tide gauge station analysis out of New Zeland confirms the obvious - current global sea level rise is barely noticable, which is complete contradiction of IPCC predictions over past 2 decades
Read here. New empirical evidence from New Zealand scientists document the lack of "accelerating" global sea level levels. The island nation in the southern Pacific has not been swamped by the rising seas and the confirmed trend indicates only a 7 inch rise by 2100.
The New Zealand documented trend is similar to those established by other research done by sea level experts.
"With respect to the South Pacific Ocean, the authors indicate that there are few reliable tide gauge records with data predating 1950...In an attempt to improve this data-sparse situation, Hannah and Bell say that "an investigation was undertaken to determine whether historical data from other tide gauge sites could provide additional spatial coverage of relative sea level trends around New Zealand."...the two New Zealand scientists report that "the average relative sea level rise calculated from the six newly derived trends was 1.7 ± 0.1 mm/year," a result that they say "is completely consistent with the far more rigorous and conventional analyses previously undertaken for the four main ports using long-term tide gauge records." And they write that "in a global context, this average trend in relative sea level rise is also consistent with the results of Church and White (2011), who find a global average linear trend in secular sea level rise of 1.7 ± 0.2 mm/year from 1900-2009."" [Jonh Hannah, Robert Bell 2012: Journal of Geophysical Research, Oceans]
Conclusion: Tide gauge station analysis confirms global sea level rise is modest and not dangerously accelerating as long predicted by the IPCC's climate models and its "experts."
Read here. The evidence continues to pour in discrediting the IPCC's fabricated disaster claims of catastrophic sea level rises. Researchers from the around the world have documented that the predicted "accelerating" and "dangerous" sea level increases are not happening.
The latest research by Albrecht et al. focuses on sea levels near the Jutland peninsula (the German Bight). These EU researchers were unable to discern the "unprecedented" sea level increases from the actual empirical evidence, which is evidence that the mainstream media and the IPCC alarmists conveniently ignore.
"Focusing on regional mean sea level (RMSL) changes in the North Sea and, more precisely, in the German Bight, Albrecht et al. developed an index time series for the RMSL employing two different approaches...basing their work on homogenized annual mean sea level data covering the period 1843-2008 that were acquired by 15 tide gauges...suggesting that "regional mean sea level increased at rates between 1.64 and 1.74 mm/year with a 90% confidence range of 0.28 mm/year in each case." As for whether or not there was an acceleration in RMSL rise within the past few decades, they note that in terms of 20-year trends, the most recent rates are "relatively high." However, they report that these rates "are not unusual and that similar rates could also be identified earlier in the record."...they go on to note that "the same conclusion concerning a possible acceleration in the recent past was drawn by Haigh et al. (2009) for the North Sea region of the English Channel.""[Frauke Albrecht, Thomas Wahl, Jürgen Jensen, Ralf Weisse 2011: Ocean Dynamics]
Conclusion: EU scientists prove, using tide gauge station data, that the long predicted catastrophic sea level rise has not happened despite the global warming that has taken place since the Little Ice Age end.
Accelerating sea levels swamping the world's coastal regions is the "bread & butter" fear of global warmista scientists - tide gauge station empirical evidence however does not support the CAGW predictions (hysteria)
Read here. Australians are naturally concerned with protecting their coastal areas from rising sea levels due to CO2-induced global warming (is it even happening?). Over recent years, a collection of Australia's scientists, politicians, bureaucrats and journalists have been spreading the fear of rising tides swamping Australia. But are the fears justified?
Global & Australian tide gauge station data
Utilizing data from the world's tide gauges, a new peer reviewed study debunks the myth that Australia needs to spend billions to protect its shoreline from sea inundation.
"The government of Australia is supporting the statement that sea levels are rising faster than ever before as a result of increased carbon dioxide emissions. Consequent to this, low-lying coastal areas, where the majority of Australians are concentrated, have been declared at risk of sea level inundations...However, long term tide gauges, recording sea levels worldwide, as well as along the coastline of Australia, and within the bay of Sydney, do not show any sign of accelerating sea level rises at present time...Long term recording tide gauges show weak sea level rises and no acceleration." [Alberto Boretti 2012: Coastal Engineering]
The faux sea level rise crisis perpetrated by the pathological AGW fear-mongering community is exposed - predicted sea level increases without data merit
The IPCC and its Climategate associates have literally fabricated scary global warming scenarios of immense sea level increases that will swamp coastal regions with - namely, 20mm/year increases at a minimum.
Of course, as with any prediction by the IPCC-related gang, the sea level protection racket does not comport with the empirical evidence, as this Climate Sanity blog video reveals. The video exposes the real sea level data, which alarmists are utterly unable to refute. Enjoy.
Latest EU satellite measurements puts sea rise at meager 2.7 inch rate by 2100 and NOAA can't find global warming in the oceans
Empirical evidence is a real bitch for 'big green' and the IPCC Climategate scientists, and, of course, James Hansen.
Per the trends, sea levels will be 2.7 inches higher in 2100 with ocean temperatures being lower by -0.5°C. (Note: trends are not predictions)
Since late 2003 the EU has had its own satellite to measure sea levels. With that new technology, they have determined that the sea's are barely rising (see blue curve in chart), in contrast to the prediction of "accelerating" sea level increases by the IPCC's minions, and the prediction of "boiling" ocean temperatures by others.
Boiling oceans!!!? Yup...James Hansen, a climate "expert," has recently been caught on video actually claiming that if ocean temperatures continue their trend they will begin to boil - see video here. This is the Madoff-style climate science that the elites eagerly swallow hook, line and sinker.
New Zealand empirical research completely deflates wild predictions of IPCC's Rahmstorf and other global warming alarmists such as Heidi Cullen
Read here. The IPCC has literally been wrong with almost 100% of their catastrophic climate predictions. The latest confirmation of their prediction incompetence is the failure of the seas to rise to dangerous levels per latest New Zealand tide gauge data.
New peer research found, In a nutshell, that seas around New Zealand have been rising at only a 7 inch per century rate. That is a fraction of the IPCC's worst case scenario prediction that the mainstream press exclusively reports.
The EU satellite has been accurately measuring global sea levels since late 2003. Based on those measurements, EU scientists determined that the mean sea level increase trend was a meager 0.816 millimeters per year, which translates into a 2.8 inch increase by year 2100.
This chart plots the actual satellite measurements through August 2011, as well as concurrent monthly CO2 levels.
Despite the predictions by the professional climate alarmists at the IPCC, the hypothesized "accelerating" global warming has not caused the hypothesized "unequivocal" increase in mean sea levels, as the chart clearly indicates. In fact, mean sea levels have actually decreased, counter to all IPCC expert and climate model predictions - literally, a stupendous scientific fail.
Although linear trends don't necessarily make for very good long-term predictions, this empirical evidence is suggesting a far less worrisome, non-catastrophic increase in sea levels than what the taxpayer funded alarmist "experts" have predicted. Based on this real world data, it's highly unlikely that major coastal regions will be impacted by the wildly speculative higher sea levels.
Read here, it's truly amazing. Being a 'cool dude' is challenging, fun and ethical - we don't makeup bogus climate change "facts", nor are we 24/7 green hypocrites. Being a 'liar dude' is a whole nuther story though.....or, should it be 'incredibly stupid dudes' that the MSM should never quote because they .....umm......errr.....well, are so damn stupid? (h/t Tom Nelson)
"Flannery admits: “no chance” of that flooding he claimed, after all"
Read here (h/t Steve Goddard). Gullible (and/or deceptive) reporters and leftie/lib/progressive politicians have gleefully relied on the exaggerated climate model predictions in attempt to lend credence to their claims of accelerating sea level rises. The climate models projected that human CO2 increases would cause a definitive ice sheet melt, thus the seas had to rise accordingly to new, scary heights. As usual, though, the climate models were wrong.
As reported by the AAAS Science journal, two NASA researchers closely re-analyzed the data from the East Antarctica ice sheet and found that previous ice sheet loss estimates were significantly higher than reality. The actual science:
"A new reanalysis by two NASA scientists of the three standard ice-monitoring techniques slashes the estimated loss from East Antarctica, challenging the large, headline-grabbing losses reported lately for the continent as a whole...Understanding the role of East Antarctica is one key to figuring out what the ice sheets, and thus sea level, will be doing by century's end."
Combine this study's results with recent Greenland ice sheet research and it becomes very evident why the empirical evidence (satellites and tide gauges) does not conform to the wild predictions of climate models; nor does the real world science conform to baseless, exaggerated "journalism" spoon-fed by the green climate activists.
Sea level increase through May 2011. (image source - click on to enlarge)
Read here and here. There is an excellent and fascinating post over at Judith Curry's site regarding historical sea levels. It's part 1 of a series by Tony Brown. From one of his linked documents comes the chart on the left, and the chart on the right from a previous C3 post on sea levels. (click on images to enlarge)
Tony does an analyisis of sea levels prior to the pre-Medieval Period, pulling information from a wide assortment of historical resources. Per the documentation he reviewed, there is strong evidence that both the Roman/Byzantine and prior periods had sea levels that exceeded the current level.
"“The North Sea had a nasty little jump between 350 and 550AD, flooding the coasts of northern Europe with an extra 2 feet of water and sending its inhabitants — folk known as Angles and Saxons — fleeing (although “conquering” might be the better word) into ill-prepared Roman territories. At the start of this rise, the areas we know as the Fens were a well-settled part of Roman Britain ruled from the town of Duroliponte (Cambridge) by its native people, the Christianized Romano-Celtic Iceni. Then the sea level rose, and history’s curtain went down for two centuries.”.....At the old shore the Etang of Vendres, near the mouth of the Aude, are the ruins of a Roman Therme of the 1st or 2nd century A.D. (locally called the temple of Venus). There the walls have been washed out by waves so that they now have a deep double notch about 1.80 m above present sea level..."
"So notwithstanding the statements of the IPCC AR4 who assert a sea level status quo from ancient until modern times, there are many studies that point to a picture of relatively static sea levels after the initial Holocene rise. These then show that some 3000 years ago there was a further inundation (think Lyonesse in Cornwall) and in early Roman times levels were somewhere around current levels. Levels then rose significantly through the Roman period peaking around the 700 AD Byzantine period at levels higher than today..."
At the end of part 1 on Curry's site, Tony makes reference to how Science Daily edited out key information from a study they reported on thus leaving their readers with an impression that previous sea levels were not higher. Interesting. Confirms why today's science journalists are no longer easily trusted.
The Washington Post seems to think Republican candidates need to be quizzed about global warming and climate change. Not a bad idea, but maybe its the Washington Post that should first be quizzed about its beliefs and its knowledge of actual climate science and facts. (click on image to enlarge)
As a large, left/liberal, anti-science, dying MSM purveyor of global warming hysteria ("...that is probably the most important set of facts we face as a nation, and as human beings on planet earth."), it's high time that Republicans start stuffing the scientific facts down the Post's gaping throat and feel good about it.
For example, it's highly unlikely that the WAPO editors, reporters, pundits, cartoonists (yes, go ahead, roll your eyes) and readers are even aware of all the reality-based studies and research done on the actual sea level facts. Why are they unaware of the facts? Well...it's because the anti-science Post does not publish actual scientific facts, it only publishes hysterical, speculative predictions (often referred to as "wild ass guesses") that they know their mentally challenged, liberal/left readers will accept as "science."
The real climate science facts regarding sea levels are shown in the accompanying chart (which, btw, one will never see published in the Post - hey, the empirical science facts hurt, ya know).
Look carefully at that chart. After all that really, really, really terrible global warming that we have read of (ad nauseum) and suffered from over the last 40 years, and that the Post's editors and cartoonists are sooo hysterical about, the latest scientific facts (tide gauges and satellites) have sea levels rising from 1 to 3mm/year, which translates into a measly 3.5 to 11 inches by the year 2100. This is what causes their editors and cartoonists to pee in their panties, and why they believe 50 million climate refugees are roaming the Earth.
Yup, those are the unadulterated, scientific facts - a measly 11 inches by century-end, maybe; and, better yet, the actual sea level rises are just a fraction of what the Post's preeminent "science experts'" predictions are. Amazingly, the Washington Post believes "expert" predictions are facts, just like that 50 million climate refugee prediction "fact" thingy.
That's right, the actual sea level facts are are just a fraction of the ludicrous expert predictions the Washington Post normally publishes without any reservation (see the red-bar predictions in the chart). They literally mislead their readers on a daily basis (okay, granted that's not terribly difficult to do) by portraying 100% pure guesstimates as 100% actual science facts.
So, here's some advice to Republicans. The climate facts are literally unknown to leftist/liberal/progressive/Democrats of the mainstream media. Simply just jam the actual facts down their throats any chance they give you. You should truly welcome this opportunity since almost every global warming speculative fiction that the WAPO has published has been proven wrong, and they're still wrong after all these hysterical years.
Finally, Mr/Ms Republican, why not ask your favorite Post editor or reporter why they don't actually publish the sea level facts for their readers to see - get a citizen journalist to record it and gleefully put them on the spot and YouTube - embrace showing their factual stupidity and prediction hysteria.
University of Colorado sea level experts finally published the long delayedU.S. satellite sea level measurement data. (click on images to enlarge)
The Univ. of Colorado's satellite data sources confirm that the hysterical IPCC and NASA "climate scientists" claims of current, dangerous, "accelerating" sea level increases are entirely without merit. In actuality, these claims were past predictions generated from the failed "expert" climate models.
Just how bad were these predictions? In viewing this next graph, the rate of sea level increase leveled off in 2003 and in subsequent years declined (decelerated) - h/t Hockey Schtick. Not a single IPCC-NASA-NOAA ocean expert/scientist/model predicted this outcome. Not a single politician/bureaucrat/Hollywood celebrity predicted this outcome. The actual outcome was the direct opposite of what the "consensus" human experts and computer models predicted.
In the left's/green's battle against the scientific data, the job of embellishing the sea-level fabricated hysteria is the major priority of the mainstream media and various "science" journals. They have become hyperventilating publishers of every ludicrous climate model sea-story prediction that alarmists can conjure up, while totally disregarding the actual satellite and coastal tide gauge empirical evidence.
They do this in order to convince the public of the reality of the millions of climate refugees caused by the warmest decade and year 'evaaar'. This has to be since human emissions just had to produce the warmest year and decade 'evaaar', which just has to be melting the Greenland ice cap, mountain glaciers and the Antarctic ice sheets faster than anyone 'evaaar' predicted. And of course, all this "accelerated" melting has to result in the most accelerating sea levels 'evaaar' - not.
Despite the non-scientific, continuous media/journal hype, and the wild "expert" predictions (WAGs), both the satellites and tidalgauges are reporting that sea level increases are slowing down towards soon-to-be, non-significant rates. The objective, dispassionate empirical evidence reveals the miserable and abject failure of climate experts' and models' predictions.
Sooo, do atmospheric CO2 levels have a major influence on sea levels? As the immediate above graph clearly depicts, the sea level changes between satellite measurements (approximately every 10 days) are highly variable, with no apparent relationship to the monotonous, monthly increasing CO2 levels. The mauve curve represents the rolling 12-month average of the sea level changes indicating zero CO2 influence and that "accelerating" change to be a non-issue.
Does modern global warming cause accelerating sea level increases? Well, the red dots above represent the moving 12-month global temperature average. That temperature average has slightly increased since 1992 but the actual sea level change (rolling 12-month level change in the above graph) has actually trended downward, which is very visible in the above graph. The mauve line in this graph represents a 3-year rolling average that corroborates the known facts: sea level increases are actually decelerating, despite the known warming.
So, putting all hyperbole to the side, what are the real sea level facts based on the data, not speculative, unsubstantiated predictions:
Sea levels have been rising over the last 20,000 years since the last glaciation, and are likely to continue to so in near future.
Sea level increases started to accelerate coming out of the Little Ice Age some 250 years ago, and then slowed.
Study after study has proven that sea levels are not accelerating to dangerous heights, as predicted by those scientists seeking/maintaining government subsidies for global warming research.
Sea levels could start accelerating, or they may continue to decelerate, which no expert nor climate model can accurately predict.
Sea level changes and trends (weekly, monthly, annual and decade-wide, etc.) have wide variations (positive and negative) that are a result of non-CO2 and non-AGW factors.
Read here. The IPCC and its Climategate scientists have predicted CO2-caused global warming for decades, which would cause the Greenland area to warm, leading to a gigantic ice melt, thus flooding coastal regions around the globe. Commonsense, anecdotal evidence, and tidal gauge and satellite data makes for convincing case that the IPCC and fellow alarmists have hilariously exaggerated this predicted catastrophe. Now comes further Greenland research that confirms the IPCC "science" failure.
Daniault et al. studied the East Greenland Current (EGC) for indications that the "melting" ice cap was injecting huge amount of fresh water melt into the current. They discovered that over the last two decades there is no increase in the EGC trend, which essentially demolishes the exaggerated IPCC predicted "tipping point" outcome.
The proverbial canary of Greenland fails to emit a peep: (click to enlarge, image source)
"The East Greenland–Irminger Current (EGIC), which flows southwestward along the eastern coast of Greenland, is important because variability in the EGIC likely influences convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas, and could affect the global meridional overturning circulation...They find that the EGIC transport was close to average from 1992 to 1996, decreased between 1997 and 2005, and has increased since 2006. Beyond this decadal variability, the researchers find no significant trend in the 1992-2009 EGIC transport time series, confirming that EGIC transport variability has not changed significantly over the past two decades." [N. Daniault, H. Mercier, P. Lherminier 2011: Geophysical Research Letters]
Read here. Imagine you're a scientist studying sea levels, and your career and research funding depends on proving that global warming is causing accelerating sea level increases. Now imagine the satellites and mother nature don't cooperate with your agenda, and the seas stop rising and actually produce a significant and visible satellite record that the oceans' levels declined. In your mind you're probably thinking, "I'm screwed."
So what do you do? Are you tempted to not publish the new data hoping for a miraculous sea level increase, like really, really soon? Is that why American scientists are not releasing the latest satellite results, taking a clue from their corrupted Climategate friends across the pond - sort of a "hide the decline" of satellite measurements mentality? (Hey, maybe the delay is really the lame excuse they have been providing to WUWT - who knows.)
Not all scientists are of the same ilk, though. The researchers at AVISO have kept on publishing the inconvenient satellite measurements, much to their credit. Not only are the AVISO researchers more timely (more honest?), they also deliver a better product than their U.S. counterparts.
Their research (graphs below) also include the data from the EU's Envisat satellite:
"Launched in 2002, Envisat is the largest Earth Observation spacecraft ever built. It carries ten sophisticated optical and radar instruments to provide continuous observation and monitoring of the Earth’s land, atmosphere, oceans and ice caps. Envisat data collectively provide a wealth of information on the workings of the Earth system, including insights into factors contributing to climate change."
As this first graph depicts, the Envisat data have the seas partly rebounding after a rather large drop. Since 2004, this satellite has the seas rising at only a 5 inches per century rate, very similar to tide gauge study results and well below the Jason satellite measurements that the U.S. scientists only report on. (click on images to enlarge) (source of graphs)
This next graph is a combination of various satellite measurements.
Again, all the satellites show the recent rather large drop. These combined measures have a trend since 1993 of only 12 inches per century, well below any of the recent alarmist non-scientific claims and predictions.
As can be seen, the Envisat (yellow line) reveals a larger drop than its Jason counterparts, which the U.S. scientists seemingly don't want the American taxpayers and policymakers to know about.
Read here. As everyone knows by now, a famous bozo and bimbo were in the near past making wild predictions about accelerating sea levels rising so high that coastal communities would soon be swamped, causing millions of refugees. Per usual, though, the famous "expert" alarmist predictions were wrong.
Latest satellite measurements show sea levels actually decreasing, not accelerating and definitely not growing dangerously high.
Read here. The IPCC Climategate scientists and alarmists have predicted that warming temperatures will cause the oceans to rise in an accelerating manner, swamping coastal areas, which will cause millions to become refugees. Fortunately for humanity, the IPCC and its government-paid minions are wrong again.
The new Australian research actually reveals a century-long deceleration trend of sea level increases with a slight increase during the late 1990's that fits within the normal variation over the longer term trend. This latest research confirms the findings of the recently published Houston and Dean study.
Both of these new studies refute the IPCC reports and climate model predictions of alarming and dangerous sea level increases.
"...indicates that "the longest continuous Australasian records, Fremantle and Auckland, situated on the western and eastern periphery of the Oceania region, respectively, exhibit remarkably similar trends in the relative 20-year moving average water level time series after 1920," with both time series showing "a rise in mean sea level of approximately 120 mm [editor: 0.059 inches per year] between 1920 and 2000 with strong correlation (R2 >= 0.93) to fitted second-order polynomial trendlines that reflect a tendency toward a general slowing in the rise of mean sea level (or deceleration) over time on the order of 0.02-0.04 mm/year/year [editor: 0.0016 inches per year/year]." And he adds that "the Fort Denison water level time series after 1940 similarly reflects a decelerating trend in sea level rise.....notes "there is a high rate of relative sea level rise averaged over the decade centered around 1994," but he says that this recent acceleration is "not remarkable or unusual in the context of the historical record available for each site over the course of the 20th century," and he states that "these recent post-1990s short-term accelerations fit within the overall longer term trend of deceleration evident in the long Australasian ocean level records."" [P. J. Watson 2011: Journal of Coastal Research]
Read here. Globally, scientists with solid empirical-based backgrounds are saying there are severe problems with many of the 2007 IPCC predictions. Namely, that many of the predictions are flat-out false based on the IPCC's political agenda, or wildly inflated by failed climate models.
New research by Houston and Dean has determined that the IPCC prediction of dangerously high acceleration of sea levels is likely both a combination of invalid climate models and desired political outcomes. They discovered that actual tidal gauge measurements over the last 80 years shows sea level increases decelerating, not accelerating per the IPCC prediction.
"Working with the complete monthly-averaged records of 57 U.S. tide gauges archived in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level data base that had lengths of 60-156 years (with a mean time span of 82 years), however, they determined that there had not been any acceleration in the rate-of-rise of the sea level along the shorelines of the United States over that period of time, during which interval the world's climate alarmists claim the planet had warmed at a rate and to a level that were unprecedented over the past one to two millennia. Quite to the contrary, in fact, they detected a slight deceleration of -0.0014 mm/year/year. And working with 25 of the tide gauge records that contained data for the period 1930-2010, they calculated an even larger deceleration of -0.0130 mm/year/year.....also report that they "obtained similar decelerations using worldwide-gauge records.....they rhetorically ask why the concomitant worldwide-temperature increase "has not produced acceleration of global sea level over the past 100 years," and, indeed, "why global sea level has possibly decelerated for at least the last 80 years."" [Houston, J.R. and Dean, R.G. 2011: Journal of Coastal Research]
Read here. Paleo-climate and ocean scientists have relied on a theory to explain pre-historical, ancient and historical sea level changes. Now comes actual empirical evidence from the Mediterranean Sea that casts doubt on the "consensus" science.
Dorale et al. using precise measurement techniques determined that the Mediterranean sea level some 81,000 years ago was significantly higher than the current day level, which is counter to past accepted science.
"Precise measurements of sea level from Mediterranean caves have revealed that about 81,000 years ago the seas stood much higher than previously thought — even higher than today's levels.....now suggests that 81,000 years ago the sea level increased sharply to reach a high-point, roughly one metre above today's level. "At face value this is a very beautiful and solid piece of work," says Wallace Broecker, a geologist and climate scientist..."..."It suggests that, for reasons unknown, the sea level which at the time should have been down some 15 metres instead went up one metre, and then went right back down again within just a couple of thousand years." [Jeffrey A. Dorale, Bogdan P. Onac, Joan J. Fornós, Joaquin Ginés, Angel Ginés, Paola Tuccimei, David W. Peate 2010: Science]
The big scare that the greenie alarmist movement, Hollywood and the MSM is always shouting about is the scare of accelerating and huge sea level increases. They speak of 3-foot increases by 2050, or 10, 20 and 80 foot increases by 2100.
Where did all these incredible sea increase predictions come from?
It turns out that all these frightening predictions share a couple things in common: one, they are based entirely on fantasy, with no scientific or empirical basis; and two, they have been fabricated by a minority of individuals seeking the limelight, which the MSM has gladly provided for them without a shred of fact-checking.
How do the over-the-top sea level increase predictions really compare to reality, though? Not well as the below chart reveals. (click on image to enlarge)
The blue bars of the chart represent both historical estimates of sea level increases and actual tide gauge and satellite measurements from recent periods. Scientists know there was a gigantic ice-sheet and glacier melt over thousands of years that raised the sea levels some 120 to 130 meters (390 to 425 feet). When averaged out over thousands of years, the sea level increase is estimated to have been about 5.0 to 7.5mm per year - with some years achieving an approximate 40mm increase.
How do more recent and current sea level increases compare to the historical record? First, it is widely recognized by all scientists that sea levels did not increase much over the 1,000 years prior to the mid-19th century. Around 1850, measurements reveal that sea levels started to increase, and interestingly, glaciers started to melt and recede, globally. Amazingly, this was decades before the modern influx of human CO2 emissions, yet it was just at the same time when natural global warming followed the frigid and freezing natural global cooling of the Little Ice Age. (For global warming alarmists, Hollywood and the MSM, this is just an "amazing" coincidence and certainly these natural cool/warm cycles could have nothing to do with modern sea levels increasing or glaciers melting.)
Regarding those current sea level measurements? Well, the remaining blue bars (starting with #6) from peer-reviewed, empirical evidence studies show increases for different time periods that range from less than 1mm/year to 3.1mm/year, with the single year of 1980 recording a 5.3mm increase. In summary, all of these studies are based in reality and one can extrapolate (predict) from the empirical evidence that sea levels are increasing at about a one-foot per century rate, which even the IPCC concurs with. A one-foot increase by 2100 is entirely manageable and entirely non-scary.
Climate alarmist scientists needing government funding for their global warming catastrophe research do not like this inconvenient empirical evidence; and, for that matter, nor does the MSM since it relies on doom and gloom stories for increased readership and viewers.
Unfortunately, for those that embrace and promote global warming fears and climate change ("disruption") catastrophes, the most current sea level evidence is especially disheartening. Indeed, the last several years of tide gauge/GPS/satellite measurements have recorded global sea level increases that are trending to zero (see bar #'s 18 and 19).
How do the predictions of scientists or climate models compare to reality based on current evidence? Some predictions are in the realm of reality and they are represented by the gold bars - reasonable, with most being higher than what recent measurement studies indicate.
The predictions with orange bars represent those that are starting to escape the world of reality, though. Typically, these are "worst" case scenarios with a very low likelihood of occurrence due to their extreme assumptions.The vast majority of scientists would not agree to climate model predictions that excessively exceed both historical estimates and current measurement studies of sea level increases.
Then there are the red-bar predictions from a distinct minority of alarmists and scientists that get all the attention of the MSM press and Hollywood. These "red-bar" predictions literally are fantasy designed exclusively to gain the attention of the feeble-minded, unable to critically think. Ultimately, these predictions can't even be considered science fiction since they are not based on a scintilla of scientific evidence.
Not surprisingly, the red-bar predictions raise some very important contradictions that global warming alarmists would prefer not to reveal (besides not comporting to recent evidence), including:
1. They claim that the predictions are based on ancient evidence over the last 20,000 years that the world was significantly warmer, which caused large sea level increases. Note, they are stating categorically that modern temperatures are not "unprecedented" and the world will return to those significantly warmer past temperatures in the near future (which is not actually looking so "hot" based on the actual evidence.)
2. The ancient warmer world happened when CO2 atmospheric levels were well below the modern, industrial levels - there were no human CO2 emissions that caused the world to warm and the ice to melt.
3. When the ancient world warmed, ice sheets and low elevation glaciers were spread all across the northern hemisphere, well into the non-polar areas. Those no longer exist, which means there is not enough ice to melt in the non-polar regions that will deliver sea level increases that would rival ancient increases.
4. The vast majority of today's ice sheets and glaciers are located in areas of extreme cold temperatures (high latitudes and/or high elevations) that minimize the potential of melting. For example, at the Greenland ice sheet Summit, current annual temperatures are -31.0°C, and for the Vostok-Antarctica station on the polar ice sheet the respective temperature is a -55.0°C. Both of these extremely cold areas hypothetically could suffer a 20° increase in temperatures and nothing is going to melt - and by the way, no sane scientist even hypothesizes a 20°C increase in these polar areas.
5. Recentstudies of ice mass loss at both Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets show that the wild-ass, speculative predictions of climate alarmist scientists and their climate/ice sheet models are galactically over-estimating the losses.
To summarize Mr/Ms new Republican elected-official, the scary sea level predictions are pure fantasy, derived not from empirical, scientific evidence, but from the incessant, non-factual speculations of a minority of individuals seeking fame, power, control and fortune. These predictions are designed to pressure you to vote for more climate research funding, and also to vote for the increased taxation of consumers and small businesses to assure the subsidization of green-energy investments by wealthy investors and large corporations - it's as simple as that.
Read here and here. Climate alarmist "scientists," such as Heidi Cullen, Barbara Boxer and Scarlett Johansson loudly proclaim that accelerating sea level rise, of anywhere from 36 inches to 240 inches, will swamp coastal areas and cause massive death and destruction.
Fortunately for the rest of humanity, the brain-dead-bimbo brigade is totally clueless about the ongoing scientific research on sea levels and the latest empirical evidence. The most recent peer-reviewed research finds that the GRACE satellite measurements have sea levels increasing on average only 4 inches per century (1mm per year).
This latest empirical evidence confirms what leading sea level experts and C-AGW skeptics have been saying for years: Al Gore'ian predictions of catastrophic, accelerating sea level increases are B.S. (click on image to enlarge)
We've all heard the same, ad nausem: the "warmest month"; the "warmest 3-months"; the "warmest summer"; the "warmest winter"; the "warmest year"; the "warmest decade"; the "warmest century"; and etc. The IPCC's Climategate scientists and NASA/NOAA/NCDC/NCAR scientists habitually use the "warmest" adjective whenever possible.
The primary reason they use the "warmest" adjective is for weapon-of-fear propaganda purposes. If believed, the natural fear progression is then to associate higher temperatures with rising sea levels from melting glaciers and polar ice sheets, which would quickly swamp the coastal areas with a 20-foot increase.
That pretty much sums up the fear and hype strategy of the IPCC and major climate science organizations across the world.
Sooooo.....if Earth has been overheated with all this "warmest" for months, years, decades and centuries, where the frak is the 20-foot increase in sea levels? (click on images to enlarge)
As the above graph reveals, the sea level increase since 2006 is at a meager 0.76 mm per year, which converts to an increase of about 3 inches per century. For the longer period since the inception of satellite measurement, the rate of increase is a +3.1 mm per year, or some 12 inches per century - neither being anywhere close to the 240 inches speculated by global warming alarmists. In addition, long-term tide gauge records show the more recent sea level rise to be only some 6 inches per century.
Alarmists have been attempting to frighten the public into believing that global warming is causing sea level changes, especially significant rises. As the above chart reveals, sea level changes, as measured by satellites, are highly variable. Using sea level data with the seasonal influence removed, it is clear that since 1992 the minor temperature change is not the driving factor for changes in sea levels over the last two decades. Obviously, other forces are at work, likely 100% natural, that cause the long-term variability in sea levels.
Sea level increases have been happening well before the explosion of human CO2 emissions as researchers have proven [Bruce C. Douglas (1997)]. As the above depicts, the increase in sea levels was approximately a total of 7.5 inches between 1900-2000. This data is based on 23 stable tide gauge instrument recordings. The red line is the satellite data superimposed on the historical measurements, which reveals a fairly close match.
Finally, based on peer-reviewed research [Fleming et al. 1998, Fleming 2000, & Milne et al. 2005] this last chart shows the sea level increase from the last glacial period. The scientists clearly documented that sea level increases have been taking place for the last 16,000+ years, and that the past increases were multiple times greater than the world currently is experiencing. It is safe to conclude that the majority of sea level rise over the last two decades is just a continuation of past natural processes, and not a result any human-induced warming as claimed by alarmists.
And those "20-foot" increases? Pure hype and lies, totally void of any empirical evidence. Just the same old, same old from IPCC Climategate scientists and the Goreian alarmists.
Read here and here. Although the recent sea level rise has been non-existent, the modern past, per the satellite estimates, has seen it rising about 3mm per year (about 12 inches per century). A new peer-reviewed study has determined that at least 25% of the past increase has been due to groundwater extraction, not CO2-induced warming. The IPCC climate models completely ignore this human-caused (groundwater extraction) component of sea level increases.
"Large-scale groundwater extraction for irrigation, drinking water or industry results in an annual rise in sea levels of approximately 0.8 mm, accounting for about one-quarter of total annual sea-level rise.....“We calculated it at eight-tenths of a millimetre per year. This is surprisingly large when compared to the current annual rise in sea levels, which the IPCC estimates at 3.1 mm.”..... Our study confirms that groundwater depletion is, in fact, a significant factor.”"
Y. Wada, L.P.H. van Beek, C.M. van Kempen, J.W.T.M. Reckman, S. Vasak, and M.F.P. Bierkens (2010)
Read here. The well-known Chicago Field Museum of Natural History has an exhibit a display depicting Manhattan under 16 feet of water due to the supposed "runaway" global warming, which has never occurred. This museum, once world famous its for scientific research, education and displays, has now chosen to ignore the actual empirical evidence and science about sea levels. Their Manhattan display actually has no factual basis.
Multiple peer-reviewed studies in recent years have examined the actual data and have all developed similar conclusions: that current sea levels are not appreciably increasing, in total contrast to virtual climate model projections and hysterical alarmists.
"It takes about 37.4 gigatons of ice loss to raise the global sea level 0.1 millimeter—four hundredths of an inch. In other words, ice loss from Greenland is currently contributing just over one-fourth of a millimeter of sea level rise per year, or one one-hundreth of an inch. Antarctica’s contribution is just under one-fourth of a millimeter per year. So together, these two regions—which contain 99% of all the land ice on earth—are losing ice at a rate which leads to an annual sea level rise of one half of one millimeter per year. This is equivalent to a bit less than 2 hundredths of an inch per year. If this continues for the next 90 years, the total sea level rise contributed by Greenland and Antarctica by the year 2100 will amount to less than 2 inches... Couple this with maybe 6-8 inches from the fact that the ocean rises with increasing temperature, temperatures and 2-3 inches from melting of other land-based ice, and you get a sum total of about one foot of additional rise by century’s end...This is about 1/3rd of the 1 meter estimates and 1/20th of the 6 meter estimates." [Ed. Note: And certainly not the bogus 16 feet the Field Museum is shamelessly promoting in order to attract visitors - it would seem the huckster museum beleives there are suckers to be had.]"
Read here. Well....it's another week and another new peer-reviewed study finds that ice sheet melting at Greenland and Antarctica is significantly below what the IPCC's Climategate scientists have claimed. Scientists from the Jet Propulsion Lab and Delft University reviewed the data and determined ice melt is half the previous speculative estimates, which means sea level rises are, in essence, about half of previous predicted levels.
"Researchers from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena (US), TU Delft and SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research have now succeeded in carrying out that correction far more accurately. They did so using combined data from the GRACE mission, GPS measurements on land and sea floor pressure measurements. These reveal that the sea floor under Greenland is falling more rapidly than was first thought. One of the researchers, Dr Bert Vermeersen of TU Delft, explains: 'The corrections for deformations of the Earth’s crust have a considerable effect on the amount of ice that is estimated to be melting each year. We have concluded that the Greenland and West Antarctica ice caps are melting at approximately half the speed originally predicted.' The average rise in sea levels as a result of the melting ice caps is also lower."
Read here. Al Gore and other prominent alarmists have relied on computer model predictions, which allowed them to make incredible claims of sea level rise due to major ice sheets melting. A new peer-reviewed study finds that the ice sheet models significantly overestimated ice-mass loss, and as a result, the projected maximum IPCC sea level predicted rise is no longer credible.
It's another case of prediction failure by computer models:
"Assessments of the glacial isostatic adjustment typically rely on deglaciation models—which simulate the evolution of the ice sheets since the Last Glacial Maximum—together with assumptions about the viscosity profile of the mantle. Much is still unknown regarding the history of the ice sheets, and even less is known about the behaviour of the mantle in response to loading and unloading."
"Bottom line on the new work is that ice-mass loss has been overestimated by previous studies. “These findings confirm the ongoing shrinkage of the polar ice sheets,” state Bromwich and Nicolas. “However, and most importantly, the newly estimated ice-sheet mass losses represent less than half of other recent GRACE-based estimates for the same time interval: −230 ± 33 Gt yr−1 for Greenland2 and −132 ± 26 Gt yr−1 for West Antarctica.” According to Wu et al. “We conclude that a significant revision of the present estimates of glacial isostatic adjustments and land–ocean water exchange is required.”.....So, when the more exact measurement separation methodology of Wu et al. is applied to the GRACE geoid data, ice sheet shrinkage, which has been systematically overestimated, is cut in half. “The differences between the work by Wu and colleagues and earlier studies may reflect errors in present deglaciation models with respect to the ice-load history and response of the Earth's mantle,” conclude Bromwich and Nicolas. According to Wu et al. “significant revision” is required. The general result—the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets will be with us for a long time to come."
Read here and here. German climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf has made a name for himself by predicting incredible sea level rises due to global warming. These "predictions" of course are based on computer models, which history tells us are completely worthless when predicting the chaotic climate of Earth.
Regardless, this hasn't stopped Stefan from avidly seeking the media limelight by announcing scary sea level increases generated by the dubious models.
Unfortunately for Stefan, the actual facts are always the proof that determines if model predictions have real-world value. The latest data, from the premier sea-level measuring program in the Pacific managed by the Aussies, totally shatters the Rahmstorf prediction that global warming is causing accelerated sea level rise trend. As the chart below indicates, there is no trend of sea level rise acceleration across the Pacific.
And it's not just this specific data that proves Rahmstorf is incompetent at his day job - multiple studies are making similar findings. Yet the media keeps quoting the IPCC's 'wrong-level' Stefan. Go figure.
Read here. Map source here. Much has been made of the demise of islands within Australia's Great Barrier Reef. The prediction by global warming alarmist scientists was that rising sea levels would overwhelm the islands, putting them beneath the waves forever. Like most alarmist predictions by the so-called climate scientists of the IPCC, they were wrong. This newest research revealed islands that actually increased in size, doing opposite of the predictions.
"Working on Raine Island at the northwest end of a planar reef on the outer edge of Australia's Great Barrier Reef -- which is one of the world's most important nesting sites for marine turtles -- Dawson and Smithers employed three historic survey maps and five topographic survey datasets of earlier researchers, supplementing them with digital elevation data collected in 1998, 2006 and 2007, to reconstruct a 40-year (1967-2007) shoreline history of the island.....The two Australian researchers report that their "detailed quantitative surveys and analyses demonstrate that Raine Island increased in area (~6%) and volume (~4%) between 1967 and 2007," and that "in the 40 years between 1967 and 2007 Raine Island underwent a net accretion of 68,400 ± 6,700 m3."
Read here. As multiple studies have found before, the scientific sea level observations contradict the predictions of the likes of Al Gore and James Hansen. The accelerating sea level claim is at this point a pure fantasy concocted to fool the low IQ of MSM-types and Hollywood celebrities.
The study identified natural ocean and climate patterns to be the prime cause of sea level variability.
"The 20th century regional and global sea level variations are estimated based on long-term tide gauge records.....The global mean sea level for the period January 1900 to December 2006 is estimated to rise at a rate of 1.56 ± 0.25 mm/yr which is reasonably consistent with earlier estimates, but we do not find significant acceleration. The regional mean sea level of the single ocean basins show mixed long-term behavior.....On shorter timescales, but longer than the annual cycle, the basins sea level are dominated by oscillations with periods of about 50–75 years and of about 25 years."
Read here. James Hansen, and his creepy friend A. Gore, have crisscrossed the world claiming sea levels will rise by some 20 meters due to global warming. It's a nice scary story designed to frighten the clueless, MSM reporters and Hollywood celebrities, but unfortunately it is told by two non-experts regarding sea levels. As a result of their non-expertise, it happens their scary story has zero connection with current reality or the ancient/historical past.
So, what do the real sea-level experts say? The latest peer-reviewed report from the world expert PALSEA team indicates a worst-case scenario of 0.59 meter to 1.4 meters by 2100. Hellooooo....the experts say it's not even going to be close to the 'teens' let alone a rise 20 meters.
And carefully note, that's the worst-case scenario. If the actual present trends of sea-level rise continue, it's highly likely that the sea-level rise might only be 0.2 meters by 2100. How scary is that? It's only a tiny fraction of the mythical scariness.
Read here. From the creepy Al Gore to Leonardo DiCaprio to despot Hugo Chavez, there are thousands of science illiterate celebrities claiming that the oceans are rising to dangerous levels. The celebrity claim is that human-induced global warming is causing the seas to rise and will result in millions of refugees having to move from low-level coastal areas.
Unfortunately for the mentally-challenged, disturbed celebrities, the dangerous "oceans are dangerously rising" myth is just that.
"The rate of sea level rise over much of the last 6,000 years has been an almost-imperceptible 1.4 millimeters per year (about 6 inches per century). Based on tide gauge measurements, sea level has risen by an average of 1.7 ± 0.3 mm/year since 1950 [7 inches per century]. Like most things associated with Earth's environment, sea levels are not static. They are constantly changing, as is the climate itself....Part of sea level change may, indeed, be caused by human activity, but not because of anthropogenic global warming. Damming and rerouting rivers diminishes water flowing to the sea; over-pumping buried aquifers and draining oil fields can cause subsidence. At the same time uplift and subduction, changing wind and currents, erosion and the deposit of sediments all play a larger, natural part. So when climate change alarmists start ranting about the inexorable rise of the world's oceans, realize that it is just another scare tactic being used to frighten the uninformed public—sea level shenanigans meant to promote the warmist agenda."
Read here. The new technology that GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite measurements represent appears to have major biases and is error-prone. Unfortunately, climate scientists who advocate climate alarmism misuse the GRACE findings to support their views without stating the critical GRACE short-comings. (Update: new GRACE article from WUWT.)
"In an effort designed to provide some of that "detailed understanding" of GRACE's "errors and biases," Quinn and Ponte conducted what they describe as "a detailed analysis of processing and post-processing factors affecting GRACE estimates of ocean mass trends," by "comparing results from different data centers...".....The two researchers report that the mean ocean mass trends they calculated "vary quite dramatically depending on which GRACE product is used, which adjustments are applied, and how the data are processed.".....In light of the fact that Quinn and Ponte indicate that "over the last century, the rate of sea level rise has been only 1.7 ± 0.5 mm/year, based on tide gauge reconstructions (Church and White, 2006)," it seems a bit strange that one would ever question that result on the basis of a GRACE-derived assessment, with its many and potentially very large "errors and biases.".....Clearly, the GRACE approach to evaluating ocean mass and sea level trends still has a long way to go -- and must develop a long history of data acquisition -- before it can ever be considered a reliable means of providing assessments of ocean mass and sea level change"
Read here. Al Gore et al keep pushing global warming myths that seem to wilt under the scrutiny of actual, real (non-computer model) science. In this case, the U.S. climate scientist predictions of Pacific islands sinking under rising sea levels turns out to be rubbish. Ahem...skeptics knew it to be rubbish from the beginning, btw.
"An Auckland University researcher has offered new hope to the myriad small island nations in the Pacific which have loudly complained their low-lying atolls will drown as global warming boosts sea levels...Geographer Associate Professor Paul Kench has measured 27 islands where local sea levels have risen 120mm – an average of 2mm a year – over the past 60 years, and found that just four had diminished in size...used historical aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite images to study changes in the land area of the islands...They found that the remaining 23 had either stayed the same or grown bigger, according to the research published in a scientific journal, Global and Planetary Change."
Read here. UK ocean experts, using the best tidal gauges available, discover that sea level rise is not accelerating. In fact, it has been decelerating since 1960, as the below graph indicates. (click on image to enlarge)
"Furthermore, the rate of sea level rise as determined by satellite altimetry (which is only available since 1992 and is calibrated to tide gauges) has also decelerated over the past 5 years from 3.2 mm/yr to only 1.5 mm/yr, about the same rate as calculated by Holgate for the period 1954-2003. Paleologic data also indicate sea level rise has greatly decelerated over the past 6000 years, and that sea levels have been rising naturally since the last ice age."
Read here. Global warming alarmists and associated IPCC scientists have made erroneous claims about glaciers worldwide. The basic claim is that glaciers are rapidly melting, adding to rising sea-levels because of human CO2-induced warming. As with almost all of these claims, they shrink to minor issues when proper scientific observation is finally applied.
"The five scientists report that "between 1962 and 2006, Alaskan glaciers lost 41.9 ± 8.6 km3 per year of water, and contributed 0.12 ± 0.02 mm per year to sea-level rise," which they note was 34% less than estimated by Arendt et al. (20002) and Meier and Dyurgerov (2002)...In addition to significantly revising what was previously believed about the magnitude of ice wastage in Alaska and northwest Canada in recent decades, Berthier et al. say their results suggest that "estimates of mass loss from glaciers and ice caps in other mountain regions could be subject to similar revisions," all of which would tend to mitigate against the rapidity with which the world's climate alarmists have long contended earth's mountain glaciers and ice caps were wasting away and thereby contributing to global sea level rise."
Read here. The idiocy of climate alarmist scientists knows now bounds. They will take the flimsiest of evidence, and for purely political reasons, publicize it as a major climate risk due to carbon dioxide emissions. Because mainstream media reporters and editors share the same political agenda as the climate scientists, headlines like this are created:
"Melting icebergs causing sea level rise"
Of course, that "sea level rise" is only 49 micrometers per year, as the scientists explain, which amounts to a 1 inch increase per 526 years. If climate alarmist scientists were not so desperate to politicize every nano-crumb of evidence into a world crisis, this type of information would barely make page 11 of National Enquirer, let alone major metropolitan dailies.
Memo to Judith Curry, the skeptics' favorite climate alarmist scientist: As this sea level rise story indicates, the politicization of climate science problem, and the harm done to true science, is not the result of Senator Inhofe, Marc Morano, and Rush Limbaugh. The original roots of the politicization of climate science, and its continuous maintenance, depends on such luminaries as: A. Gore, T. Wirth, Obama, J. Holdren, P. Erlich, M. Strong, Ted Turner, Paul "You're Treasonous" Krugman, Tom Friedman, P. Jones, B. Santer, Overpeck, M. Mann, K. Trenberth and a large cornucopia of others. If you don't understand the level of politicization expounded by such people, and their true objectives, then read what they have to say.
In the meantime, your political commentary regarding skeptics is ludicrous and self-serving. If you want the politicization to stop, hold your nose and go talk (complain) to your alarmist overlords.
Read here. Neither Al Gore or James Hansen is an expert regarding oceans and seas. And they are definitely not experts regarding sea level rises. Sooo, what do the real, human scientist experts (not computer models) think about future sea level rises?
The experts in seas/oceans estimate a potential 4.7 inch to 39 inch rise over 21st century - this is certainly a sea level rise range that humans can deal with, easily. And, most significantly, this is a range based on historical sea levels that actually occurred during past warmer periods. What does this tell us? The true experts are predicting a maximum sea level rise far below the non-expert opinions (propagandist myths) of fanatical warming activists, such as Gore and Hansen.
"In an effort to place some reasonable potential limits (both high and low) on possible future sea-level rise, members of the PALeo SEA Level Working Group (PALSEA) recently looked to the past for some answers....The PALSEA scientists say that "using palaeo-data and direct observations, it is possible to put loose limits on just how rapidly we might expect sea-level rise to occur over the next century" if the worst-case warming scenario of the IPCC were actually to occur, placing the projected rise somewhere between the lower limit of 20th-century sea-level rise (0.12 m per century [4.7 inches]) and the sea-level rise at the conclusion of the termination of the last glacial period (1 m per century [39 inches])."