As widely documented and reported, global warming has disappeared over the last 15+ years.
While there is no longer any doubt about the lack of global warming, there continue to be attempts by global warming alarmists to prove regional warming in the Arctic continues. Essentially, their attempts are solely based on fabricated guesstimates of Arctic temps with further "enhancement" via suspect statistical techniques.
But as this new, legit scientific study confirms, an analysis of temperature observations establishes that the Arctic climate is no longer warming, and may actually be in a cooling phase since 1998.
Back in 2008, Climate Sanity did an article about Arctic warming, creating the adjacent top graphic that highlights 14 different peer reviewed studies. (click to enlarge image)
The light pink areas represent large geographical areas where the past Arctic climate, over the last 3,000 to 9,000 years, was warmer than today's.
Recently, 'C3' posted an article regarding 15 studies that determined the Medieval Arctic warming was greater than the current warming.
In addition, the adjacent bottom graphic depicts both past and modern tree lines and permafrost boundaries. This inconvenient empirical evidence confirms that in the past trees were able to grow farther north (due to a warmer northern climate) than our modern period; also, today's permafrost boundary stretches farther south due to a modern climate that is cooler.
Despite this preponderance of empirical evidence and multiple peer reviewed studies about the present and past Arctic climate, a new moss (lichen) study by Miller et al. 2013 makes a bogus claim that today's Arctic temperatures are warmer than the past 44,000 to 120,000 years.
This bogus claim has all sorts of scientific lameness, falsehoods and wild misrepresentations associated with it, as described by experts here, here, here and here.
The criticisms of this study are extensive. But the obvious criticism of blatant cherry-picking is indisputable. As one expert pointed out, this research focused on just four moss sample sites on Baffin Island and ignored the island's 135 other moss sites' samples that completely discredit the bogus "warmer than the last 44,000 to 120,000 years" claim.
latest study's bogus science affirms, anti-science cherry-picking
remains alive and well in "scientific" circles pushing the discredited catastrophic global warming hypothesis. Just another example of 'the ends justify the means' style of agenda-science.
And BTW, the top graphic does not include the recent Baffin Island icecap study and another Island study using lake sediment cores, which both confirm that the modern Arctic temps are cooler than the past.
The bogus "unprecedented" modern warming claims by the IPCC and catastrophic global warming 'hystericals' takes another body blow - newly released Arctic region empirical evidence (from Svalbard) confirms that Medieval Period was robustly warmer than the world-ending, hypothetical CO2-induced modern warming feared by alarmists
The Climate Audit blog has another article regarding the amazing "scientific" attitudes/methods of paleo-climate "scientists" who embrace the IPCC's left-green-alarmist propaganda.
The 'CA' article includes the adjacent temperature reconstruction chart of an Arctic region, spanning the time period of 800AD to 1997AD.
Clearly, the Medieval Period was significantly warmer than the recent modern warming. The MWP climate warmth took place during an era of low atmospheric CO2 levels and minuscule human CO2 emissions. The evidence reveals the extended, unprecedented polar temperatures experienced prior to the Little Ice Age cooling.
Read here. Empirical-based scientists conducted real-world field research and determined that summer Arctic ice has been less than 50% than that during most modern summers. This clearly indicates that summers were definitely warmer in the recent past, despite the low levels of CO2.
BTW, this means polar bears survived this extreme ice shrinkage in the past and will do so again.
It also conclusively proves that the infamous disappearing sea ice "tipping point" that IPCC climate alarmist scientists claim is lurking in the next heat wave is likely non-existent - just like the scary boogieman living underneath the bed of children.
From the peer-reviewed study by Funder et al.:
"For several thousand years, there was much less sea ice in The Arctic Ocean – probably less than half of current amounts. This is indicated by new findings by the Danish National Research Foundation for Geogenetics at the University of Copenhagen...when the temperatures were somewhat warmer than today, there was significantly less sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, probably less than 50% of the summer 2007 coverage, which was absolutely lowest on record...The good news is that even with a reduction to less than 50% of the current amount of sea ice the ice will not reach a point of no return: a level where the ice no longer can regenerate itself even if the climate was to return to cooler temperatures. Finally, our studies show that the changes to a large degree are caused by the effect that temperature has on the prevailing wind systems. This has not been sufficiently taken into account when forecasting the imminent disappearance of the ice, as often portrayed in the media,”" [Svend Funder, Hugues Goosse, Hans Jepsen, Eigil Kaas, Kurt H. Kjær, Niels J. Korsgaard, Nicolaj K. Larsen, Hans Linderson, Astrid Lyså, Per Möller, Jesper Olsen, Eske Willerslev 201: Science]
Read here. IPCC Climategate scientists and AGW alarmists have long predicted that human CO2-emissions will cause the Arctic to become "ice-free" - a "tipping point" to runaway warming. As with almost all AGW alarmists' predictions, new EU climate research by Tietsche et al. shows the ice-free Arctic tipping point prediction to also be bogus.
"First off, a flood of new research has hit the library shelves concerning the rates of ice flow of Greenland’s glaciers indicating that many of the proposed mechanisms for large and rapid ice loss there do not work the way they have been postulated to. And, new findings into how they do work indicate a much less drastic response to a warming climate.....Now, a team of scientists from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, in Hamburg, Germany, led by Steffen Tietsche, examine whether or not there is indeed a “tipping point” when it comes to Arctic sea ice coverage....."[W]e [ find that even dramatic perturbations of summer sea-ice cover in the Arctic are reversible on very short time scales of typically two years. This suggests that a so-called tipping point, which would describe the sudden irreversible loss of Arctic summer sea ice during warming conditions, is unlikely to exist."" [S. Tietsche, D. Notz, J. H. Jungclaus, J. Marotzke 2011: Geophysical Research Letters]
Read here. Other than the typical lamebrain MSM reporters (scroll down to Arctic temps "reported" by George Monbiot), just about everyone else knows that NASA completely fabricates modern hot Arctic temperatures from wishful alarmist thinking.
NASA's blatantly, bogus temperatures (lies?) are an attempt to scare the public into thinking the ice sheets of Greenland are quickly melting away because of unprecedented "high" temperatures, including those maximum high temperatures forecasted for the ice sheet this week: an average of a -35°F (yes, minus) for the daily high temps. Obviously, the northern ice sheets are safe despite the bogus NASA and Monbiot Arctic alarmism.
While NASA's computer jocks spend their time and our money on fabricating fake temperatures, real scientists continue to conduct expert scientific research on the Arctic. Their latest peer-reviewed findings confirm a previous study that the Medieval Period experienced Arctic temperatures some 2-3°C higher than modern Arctic temps. Map source here.
"We have generated a ~5,000 year long, decadally-resolved record of summer water temperature from the annually-laminated sediments of Lower Murray Lake on Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic. The varved sediments of Lower Murray Lake allowed high-resolution sampling and excellent chronologic control of the sedimentary record.....Most strikingly, the alkenone record reveals warm lake water temperatures beginning ~800 AD and persisting until ~1200 AD, with temperatures up to 2-3 deg C warmer than the mean temperature for the past 100 years. This dramatic medieval warm period on Ellesmere Island interrupted a distinct (neoglacial) cooling trend that had begun approximately 2000 years earlier." [D'Andrea, W. J.; Bradley, R. S. 2010]
Read here. James Hansen, Al Gore and other global warming alarmists base frightening climate calamities (20 to 80-foot sea level increases) on the hypothesis that human CO2 emissions will cause an "amplified" increase in polar temperatures. Actual scientific researchers decided to investigate the validity of the polar-amplification hypothesis.
The nine researchers [White et al. 2010] examined all the evidence and research related to Arctic temperatures and determined that current Arctic temperatures are well within natural variability and no CO2-induced "polar-amplification" is to be found.
"In comparing the vast array of past climate changes in the Arctic with what climate alarmists claim to be the "unprecedented" anthropogenic-induced warming of the past several decades, White et al. conclude that "thus far, human influence does not stand out relative to other, natural causes of climate change." In fact, they state that the data "clearly show" that "strong natural variability has been characteristic of the Arctic at all time scales considered," and they reiterate that the data suggest "that the human influence on rate and size of climate change thus far does not stand out strongly from other causes of climate change."" [White, J.W.C., Alley,R.B., Brigham-Grette, J., Fitzpatrick, J.J., Jennings, A.E., Johnsen, S.J., Miller, G.H., Nerem, R.S. and Polyak, L. 2010.]
'Big Green' and its comrades have proven themselves capable of some the most outlandish lies in their incessant promotion of global governance, regulation and taxation of CO2 emissions. Possibly the biggest of lies is the one that today's modern temperatures are "unprecedented," never before warmer.
This big lie is the linchpin for all the associated hysterical, non-empirical, over-the-top, catastrophic predictions that are made by Big Green. Of course, when the actual, empirical, scientific data is actually considered, the big lie of "unprecedented" is shown to be a blatant falsehood.
As the graphs below reveal, there has been a general decline in polar temperatures over the last 10,000 years. Modern temperatures at both poles are well below their historical peaks.
Simply put, this means both humans and polar bears survived and adapted to warmer temperatures in the recent geological past. In addition, ice sheets outlasted extended periods of significantly higher temperatures in the past. (click on images to enlarge)
The other lie that the empirical evidence exposes as pseudo-science is that CO2 is the primary driving force of climate and temperature change. The ice core evidence is a stunning record of climate and temperature changing regardless of CO2 levels. Obviously, there are other natural forces in play that are the primary "climate disruptors."
That's not to say that human CO2 emissions have no part in modern warming, but it is more likely that a trace gas, like CO2, only has a trace affect on global temperatures and climate.
Notes: The average daily Vostok temperature (1958-2010) is the 2010 data-point for the Antarctica chart. The 2010 Greenland Summit temperature data point is average temperature of recent January through December monthly temperatures (added for modern context). The light gray columns in both charts represent CO2 levels, with 2010 estmated level (added for modern context) being the black column on far right.
YBP (years-before-present) figures were adjusted accordingly with use of year 2010 as end point.
Read here. McKay et al. research PDF download. Peer-reviewed study analyzing 9,000 years of sediment core data (two different types of sediment cores) from the west Arctic Ocean area confirms what was learned from the Greenland ice cores: the Medieval and Roman periods experienced higher temperatures than the world's present climate. See top chart, Fig. A. (click on image to enlarge)
[Note: Blue bars on y-axis of both figures indicate range of modern measurements. The open and closed markers for both figures represent the results from the two sediment cores. The red-shaded areas represent warming periods as found within the sediment cores. The authors contend the red-shaded areas are associated with an evident 2,500 year period of oscillation that naturally occurs.]
Ice-core charts and other historical temperature charts here. Additional climate history postings.
In addition, this study was able to determine the approximate sea ice coverage (see bottom chart, Fig. B) over the last 9,000 years. As one would expect, and the bottom chart data reveals, the actual sea ice coverage would be less over the term of a calendar year when the sea-surface temperatures were higher.
Obviously, the "death spiral" of Arctic sea ice that big-government paid scientists like to frighten MSM reporters with (about the current Arctic conditions) has happened multiple times before. These "death spirals" are solely due to natural climate variation - literally, humans don't cause these sea-ice death spirals and humans can do nothing to stop them from happening.
The final conclusion of authors: Modern surface temperatures of west Arctic are well below historical/ancient temperatures. Modern sea-ice coverage is well above the 9,000 year average of the past. Neither modern measurement is "unprecedented" as claimed by global warming alarmists.
The readers can also conclude the following from both this new evidence and the previous Greenland ice core data: Polar bears and walruses are not at risk since both species survived much warmer temperatures and significantly less ice in the past.
Read here. The British ship, HMS Investigator, sailed the Arctic area in the 1850's. The ship was abandoned and then sunk. After 150+ years the sea ice finally retreated enough to allow researchers to find the HMS Investigator, on the bottom of the Arctic Ocean.
Sooooo.....during the 1850's, well before the huge spike in human CO2 emissions, the area north of the Arctic Circle was so free of ice that a wooden ship with sails could easily traverse the area. Simply put, this is irrefutable historical evidence about large scale sea ice melt, which proves that the Arctic has 'been there, done that.'
"Interesting that the ship was lost in 1853, right at the end of the Little Ice Age, and coincidentally just 3 years after the start of the HADCRU global temperature record, from which we are led to believe the earth has warmed about 0.7C. If we are seeing "unprecedented" global temperatures and changes in Arctic sea ice, how did the HMS Investigator get this far north at the end of the Little Ice Age?"
Read here. Climate alarmists bemoan the fate of polar bears due to global warming (wrongly concluded and hyped), yet are curiously silent about the incredible slaughter of birds due to a favored renewable energy solution - wind turbines. The avian massacre is potentially 300,000 per year - the hypocrisy of major environmental groups and activists is astounding.
Read here. Couple this with Greenpeace admission that "Arctic ice would disappear by 2030" was a "mistake" (an exaggeration of a speculative prediction), plus the news that polar bears are prospering this summer, and it really becomes obvious: global warming alarmists have no clue what they speak of and any prediction coming from their mouths should be ignored.
Synopsis: Polar bears have survived much hotter and colder periods. Continued polar bear hunting is the primary danger to polar bear species.
Source here. "Polar bears have survived changes in climate that exceed those that occurred during the twentieth century or are forecast by the IPCC’s computer models. Most populations of polar bears are growing, not shrinking, and the biggest influence on polar bear populations is not temperature but hunting by humans, which historically has taken a large toll on polar bear populations."
Synopsis: Wild species have adapted to large climate change in past, and will do so in future.
Source here. "The world’s species have proven to be remarkably resilient to climate change. Most wild species are at least one million years old, which means they have all been through hundreds of climate cycles involving temperature changes on par with or greater than those experienced in the twentieth century."
Synopsis: There is no evidence of extinctions being caused by human CO2.
Source here. "The IPCC claims “new evidence suggests that climate-driven [global warming] extinctions and range retractions are already widespread” and the “projected impacts on biodiversity are significant and of key relevance, since global losses in biodiversity are irreversible (very high confidence).” These claims are not supported by scientific research."