A recent lame paper by researchers desperately trying to tie Syrian violence with global warming and climate change was completely eviscerated by a wide range of experts...in summation, it was an exceedingly stupid paper...plus, history of climate antiquity provides plenty of evidence that cooler temperatures provoke more war, rebellions and organized violence than warmer periods.....
(click on chart to enlarge)
This chart depicts historical precipitation and temperature reconstruction from northern China.
Overlaid on the chart by 'C3' are significant Chinese events from the past, along with identification of major solar states (minimums and maximums).
The scientists who compiled the precipitation/temperature records and produced the reconstructions had summarized that solar influence was climatically significant for China due to the affect on annual monsoons.
Using Wikipedia, major war/violence/political events were identified and then added to the chart (color bars).
To the more than casual viewer, it would certainly appear that a cooler climate regime has a higher association with extreme organized violence than a warmer period.
The chart's green curve indicates that those periods with less precipitation (i.e. droughts) are more common when cooler temps prevail - more arid conditions, with less food production make people (and societies) rather restless.
The unequivocal and indisputable climate research clearly demonstrates that climate change is constant; and when combined with historical accounts and anecdotal evidence, warmer climates tend to favor prosperity and peace outcomes while cooler periods provide more of the opposite.
Note: 'C3' originally wrote about this research in 2011. There was a recent article at Ice Age Now (and a YouTube video) using another 'C3' chart with significant Chinese events being overlaid on the Greenland ice core temp reconstructions (that prompted our doing the same for the above northern China chart). Wikipedia info page sources: here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here.
Thank you, Obama!....US DOE researchers connect-the-dots...confirm for the public, once and for all, that natural climate change was bigger!, badder!, warmer! and cooler! than the meek modern era climate...science has spoken!!...the science is settled!!...the debate is over!!...it's a consensus!!...indeed, modern warming is very natural-like, just not as robust versus the past.....
(click on chart to enlarge)
This chart was recently produced by government scientists, as noted here and here.
This single chart compilation by govt researchers confirms what multiple studies have shown over and over again...natural climate change rules, regardless of CO2 greenhouse emissions.
Several obvious points from this research pictorial.
A. Past natural climate change has produced extreme volatility and variation.
B. Reconstructed temperature proxies reveal multiple climatic periods of acceleration and levels of cooling/warming that far exceed what the modern era has experienced.
C. Modern global warming is not extreme nor unique, even compared to the relatively recent period of the Minoan/Bronze age civilizations.
D. Current temperatures would not have to drop by that much for Earth to enter an ice age glaciation period.
E. Earth has been in an overall cooling mode for the last 10 million years.
These 5 scientific factual points are indisputable, undeniable, irrefutable and unequivocal. [Editor opinion: Any scientist, politician, bureaucrat or journalist/pundit who states otherwise is a definitive climate change denier - or, maybe 'anti-science' liar would be a more apt label for those denying what climate science has proven to be fact.]
Two more points to be considered.
First, the DOE scientists who produced this chart attached instrument thermometer readings to reconstructed proxy estimates. This is truly an apple-to-orange comparison without any scientific validity. It's a science 'no-no' in lay terms. In addition, modern era proxy reconstructions reveal a temperature decline since 1960 that these DOE scientists conveniently fail to mention identify.
Second, it has been well established by multiple analysts that modern climate records have been heavily manipulated by govt "scientists" to fabricate faux-warming over vast regions of the globe. It is now estimated that large swaths have had their climate records "adjusted" upward by at least 0.4C over the last 20 years. To appreciate the huge extent of the temperature fabrication, visit these search links: here, here, here, here and charts here.
When these two considerable factors are taken into account, the actual modern warming that has occurred is likely better represented by the mauve arrow added to the chart on the right side.
Alas, in the scheme of actual climate empirical evidence, modern warming is not so much as it turns out. It's those stubborn facts, again.
Is it true about the climate warming?...since the incredible revelations of Climategate, official climate science continues to embarrass itself...frankly, government sponsored scientists seem eager to keep the curse alive that is undermining their credibility...one wonders if it due to a strong allergic reaction to truth and objectivity...maybe current global warming science should now be referred to as 'Kardashian-science' in honor of manipulating the truth for a better story...now take the case of the persistent photoshopping manipulating of the historical climate records.....
(click on image to enlarge)
Name a single individual scientist, government official or blue-ribbon commission that publicly announced 10 to 20 years ago that all the historical climate temperature records were wrong, and thus there was a need for all to be altered carte blanche to conform to certain pattern.
That's right, you can't.
Hmmm...maybe because there never was a debate/discussion about a proposed blatant altering of historical evidence.
With absolutely no public concurrence to do so, non-elected climate scientists just decided to make it happen.
It's science on its worst agenda-driven behavior.
Of course, when the empirical truth comes out regarding the overstatement of global warming by govt climate researchers they then wonder why the public has a growing distrust of science and government.
Recently, climate analyst Paul Homewood has had a slew of articles regarding the very questionable alterations of various climate station records. His research has documented multiple instances of "adjustments", from the top of the world to the bottom, with the end result always being that late 20th century global warming appears to be greater than the originally recorded - but only after the adjustments.
An example of his work are the two climate station records in the accompanying graphs. One station is in Iceland and the other in Paraguay. Both examples reveal that historical, originally recorded temperatures of the past were significantly reduced, which obviously makes the recent modern global warming appear more unusual.
This is the "unprecedented" modern warming that advocates relentlessly push. But it is only unprecedented because the past temperatures were so drastically altered - literally, it's fake unprecedented warming relative to the cooling alternations applied primarily to the pre-1970 temperatures.
Multiple articles from the near past have been written about the continuing "global warming" fabrications by climate agencies - here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here. It's not a pretty picture of supposed objective truth-seeking science.
Are all temperature adjustments bad or wrong? Absolutely not, as this and this article point out some merits.
Yet, indications from 3rd party analysis (here and here) indicates that potentially one-half of the hypothetical +0.8°C global warming since 1850 may be a result of the massive temperature adjustments applied to the entire historical record.
'Hypothetical' because the climate agencies cannot say with confidence what actual global temperatures were in the past (or are now):
"It is not possible to calculate the global average temperature anomaly with perfect accuracy because the underlying data contain measurement errors and because the measurements do not cover the whole globe."...
Finally, it would be one thing if climate agencies adjusted past temperatures with a one-time correction for any of the poorly reported historical temperatures. It's a whole different ballgame when climate agencies "correct" all past monthly historical temperatures every few months.
For example, did you know that NOAA/NCDC has "corrected" the January 1939 global temperature at least 7 times over the last 24 months? This is the count only when considering the 2nd decimal point changes. For corrections out to the 4th decimal point, it is highly likely January 1939 has been corrected 24 times out of the last 24 months.
And this is true for every single month going back to 1880.
Here's a commonsense suggestion to finally improve the credibility of climate science, and, most importantly, to assure the public's confidence in the global warming reported in the future:
An appointed 3rd party audit should be conducted by a team of non-climate scientists on all historical raw climate station temperatures; one-time corrections would then be applied utilizing a scientifically/statistically agreed upon standard; and, once corrected, past temperatures can never be "corrected" again by climate researchers.
Voila, the ongoing and distracting debate about the accuracy and truthfulness of global land/sea temperature records is smothered, once and for all.
How to pay for such a scientific endeavor? Easy. Take a few billion away from the spectacularly failed climate model efforts, especially since the current models rely on the fabricated temperature records. No wonder they're always so wrong.
Climate science continues to document the powerful, repeating natural patterns that produce the ups/downs of climate change...yet, many political, journalism, celebrity elites, and newly-minted wannabes deny the existence of these past, current and future climate patterns...to the point of grossly misleading the public and constituents in regards to natural climate change, natural global warming, and yes, natural worldwide cooling...so, is it plain anti-science that drives their denial?...an unfathomable ignorance?...or just the intellectually-lame desire to be politically correct?.....
(click on chart to enlarge)
Using the UK's MetOffice global HadCRUT4 (HC4) dataset as a proxy for long-term climate change, it allows for a breakdown of when such changes occurred.
For this article's definitional purposes, long-term change is defined at those points where the HC4 30-year global average shifted to a new level (up or down) by 0.1°C, for at least 12-months in a row.
[Editor: Why ±0.1 changes and not ±0.01? Because long-term changes of hundredths of a degree is an absurd and statistically bogus change-assessment technique for 12 months, let alone 360 months.]
The adjacent chart depicts those ±0.1 changes. As can be observed, there have been a total of 10 shifts since the 1850-beginning of this global instrument dataset.
There was a shift down in the global 30-year average starting in July 1909, for a period that extended to October 1928. The next full 0.1°C shift arrived in November 1928 when the 30-year average increased by 0.1°C, attaining its previous level.
That was then followed by 3 more shifts, each of different lengths.
Then the same exact pattern of shifting repeats, with 1 cooling shift followed by 4 warming shifts.
The warming since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) did not have a major impact on long-term HC4 averages until the early 1900's.
Natural global warming since the LIA-rebound started has not been consistent, nor even predictable.
As represented by the 30-year global average shifts, the first span of global warming (consisting of the first 4 shifts up) was very lengthy, reaching all the way into the 1970's - this long span being primarily well before the gargantuan consumer/industrial CO2 emissions from the late 20th century of the modern era.
The amount of long-term increase for the last 4 shifts equals +0.4°C, the same as the earlier 'up' shifts, but it occurred over a shorter time span.
Does all of the above mean that the future will be an exact repeat of the pattern? Well, the definitive answer to that is 'no'.
There is no denying that, in general, modern climate change closely resembles what has taken place in the past. The similarities are evident, despite short-term climate variations that produce observable differences in duration, levels and intensity.
As the latest peer-reviewed research indicates, modern climate scientists are finally rediscovering (for example and example) the climate truths that their predecessors were aware of: natural earthly/solar/cosmic forces produce repeating (and similar) climate oscillations/cycles, creating dominant influences that dictate overall patterns for long-term climate change.
Yes, the human influence does exist, but it is a distinctly minor player in the long-term scheme of climate patterns.
And because these amazing pattern similarities happen in a chaotic system, they can neither be predicted, nor controlled. Those stubborn facts are continually ignored by advocates of human-caused climate change predictions.
Note: This monthly temperature dataset and Excel used to calculate moving 30-year averages. First, monthly anomalies were used to calculate a 12-month average for each month. Then using an estimate of 14.0C for the global temperature average of the 20th century, 12-month absolute temperatures were calculated from the calculated 12-month average anomalies. Finally, 30-year (360-month) absolute global averages were calculated. Excel's rounding function used to identify ±0.1C changes.
All politicians, bureaucrats and scientists are prone to ludicrous exaggerations, lame mistruths and outright lies as techniques to frighten and push the general public towards accepting an agenda...and leftists, socialists, marxists, progressives and liberals are really exceptional talents in this art of public deception...some very recent climate-liar examples:
"Climate change is the most consequential, urgent, sweeping collection of challenges we face" (Hillary Clinton)..."confronting climate change” is “a duty or responsibility laid down in scriptures" (John Kerry)...“Climate change is so much more consequential than ISIS ever was" (Leading Democrat consultant)...“we are not very far” from the point where climate change should be declared an international public health emergency" (UN's Christiana Figueres).....
(click on to enlarge)
Any political success that is achieved by deceit, hyperbole and hysteria always requires a sacrifice of the empirical evidence and unbiased science.
Yet it is scientific facts and methodologies that ultimately win...it follows that the public can only be mislead for so long.
Despite the extremist hyperbole and doomsday-cult scenario hysteria, the science of climate change is rather mundane, from a long-term view: it gets cold and, OMG!, then it gets hot, with some periods of in-between. Climate change is constantly in play; and humans can no more stop its chaotic version of ebbs and flows, let alone ever controlling a single cloud, thunderstorm, hurricane or tornado.
This chart, from the science journal New Scientist, is a prime exhibit of real-world scientific evidence that reveals how inconsequential today's climate change is compared to all previous climate change.
From the chart, it is clear that extreme climate change is a constant; there have been much higher and lower temperatures in the past; modern climate temperatures are not excessive in the least; and, the purported human-induced, "dangerous" modern temperature warming is only a fraction of past natural increases.
We say purported, because our existence is taking place during a global cooling phase (look at chart closely and note the pale blue areas) which is rather long-in-the-tooth, and at some point would normally rebound to warmer temperatures, just naturally. Indeed, the entire warming since the Little Ice Age is likely to be predominantly a natural response to the prior millenniums of extended cooling.
As the chart's inset clarifies, the modern warming since the end of 1949 has been very modest, being completely within the bounds of previous ancient and geological warmings that have been identified by empirical science.
And the "tipping point" warming has become even more modest during the 21st century:
The atmosphere has not experienced statistically significant warming since March 1996.
The oceans have not experienced statistically significant warming since August 1994.
The globe has not experienced statistically significant warming since November 1996.
Memo to GOP elites: Do not just passively accept the climate-liars' exaggerations, hyperbole and factual misrepresentations. The public wants the science facts; they want evidence that challenges the mindless, ludicrous fear-mongering. Crush the Democrats' hysteria with the real science; and denigrate their junk science predictions generated from the failed computer climate models. Facilitate the flow of scientific empirical evidence and debate - hmm...it's called educating the public, eh?
Leftists, progressives, Democrats, liberals, socialists, crony-capitalists, communists, politicians, UN bureaucrats, crony-scientists, mainstream journalists and Hollywood celebrities are acknowledged as the world's climate-porn stars, as well as being in dire need of a basic manual titled 'Climate for Dummies'...their statements regarding global warming and climate change continue to be living proof that stuck-on-stupid and cluelessness are in a constant battle to dominate the leftward thinking brain.....
Without going through a complete litany of embarrassing and moronic left-wing climate change comments by the "elites," several from the past few weeks truly stand out:
===> "The planet is running a fever and there are no emergency rooms" - Democrat Senator Markey from Massachusetts
===>"We no longer need storms or hurricanes to produce flooding - it is becoming an everyday occurrence" - Anne Burchard, the Sierra Club
===> "It's kind of like telling a little girl who's trying to run across a busy street to catch a school bus to go for it, knowing there's a substantial chance that she'll be killed." - MIT professor Kerry Emanuel regarding critics of his opinion that catastrophic global warming disasters are today's climate
===> "It’s time for climate-change deniers to face reality’ – ‘They’re fiddling while the planet burns" - NY Daily News editorial page
===>"MSNBC segment claims that climate change could make a real ‘Sharknado’ happen" - a Comcast-owned Obama propaganda outlet
===>"And this, to me, is the most important film [Sharknado 2] ever made about climate change. There is no film, TV thing, special anything, more important than this film." - Actor, Judah Friedlander
===> "A new report says redheads might one day be extinct...when climate change brings an end to cool mist, the climate for red hair will also disappear." - Diane Sawyer, a TV "journalist", U.S. ABC News
===>"NYU Professor: Solve climate change by making people smaller" - S. Matthew Liao, instructor of bioethics at New York University
===>"Weather is not climate, you willfully ignorant fucksticks.” - obviously, the very "professional" CNN reporter, Bill Weir
Now, climate change comments like these have been part and parcel nonsense from the left-wing nutcases for over 100 years. As can be readily seen here, climate calamities are the 'forever' essential fear-mongering tactics used by elites and disaster-whσres to convince the public. (Additional crazed quotes from the "elites".)
More importantly, these common anti-science fear tactics are completely divorced from current climate science reality, as the empirical records demonstrate (here, here, here,here and here).
So, are the catastrophe rantings and hate emanating from liberal, progressive Democrats a result of some combination of incredible ignorance and stupendous stupidity regarding climate science?
If so, then maybe a book titled 'Climate for Dummies' would be a welcome science reading assignment for left-wing malnourished brains. Needless to say, said book should include a chapter on the science of temperature trends, made as simple as possible for those addicted to global warming calamity-porn.
Our contribution to the book will be the adjacent "Warming" Speedometer, which is a very simple visual aid to help liberal/progressive/Democrats put those really, really hard concepts of per century temperature trends into a proper context. (click on speedometer to enlarge)
For example, this simple decile infographic displays the entire range of 10-year global warming/cooling trends in per century terms since 1860. What could a climate-porn elite learn from this simple visual aid? (And help them from sounding like an uninformed idiot...)
the lowest per century trend (based on 120-month calculations) was reached during 1887
the highest per century trend was reached in 1983
the June 2014 per century trend falls into bottom half of deciles
the June 2014 trend is actually a global cooling trend
that some 31 years after the 1983 peak of 4.3°C warming trend, the temperature trend collapsed to a -0.1°C per century cooling trend.
Conclusions that a progressive/leftist elite might be able to reach from the simple "warming" speedometer of actual empirical evidence?
Hmm...let's see...that the approximate 1.5 trillion tonnes of human CO2 emissions (since the industrial age began) has not given Earth an accelerating fever that is causing the planet to burn - that's an unavoidable, rational and informed assessment of climate reality. And also that the world's modern climate, through June 2014, experienced a wide range of temperature trends (which are similar to the historical and ancient natural climate gyrations).
But as many have discovered to their dismay, empirical science means that liberal Democrats actually have to connect-the-dots, which apparently the climate-porn disorder prevents.
Note: Highest temperature trends (per century, based on 120-month calculations) for each decile noted on Speedometer (bottom decile also has lowest listed). HadCRUT4 global dataset used in Excel analysis. Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
Climate change alarministas claim that modern human CO2 emissions are causing hotter temperatures around the world and the U.S...extreme global warming with blistering temperatures is their rallying cry but is it true?...Nope...it's another case of 'those stubborn facts'.....
(click on top or bottom chart to enlarge)
Of course, the CAGW argument has been (and continues to be) that huge CO2 emissions have produced extremely hot weather records during the 1980's, 90's and the 21st century, so far. But is it true?
Well, as pointed out earlier this year, the feared global warming is not producing the proclaimed hotter temperature records across the world.
And for the U.S.? NOAA confirms the same through June 2014. It is empirically true that the climate alarministas fear-mongering about record-setting extremes are without merit.
Case in point. This collection of charts depict NOAA's climate record frequency for maximum monthly temperatures across the contiguous U.S.
Figure #1 is the record of the 5% hottest months since 1980 in the U.S. Out of 409 months (34+ years), these 20 months represent the extreme. (The light blue data-points are the climate records since 1980 for all charts.)
Figure #2 is the 409-month record starting in 1920. These are the extreme 5% hottest months in the U.S. prior to the 1960s. (The dull red data-points are the climate records since 1920 for all charts.)
Figure #3 reveals that there have been zero months in the U.S. since 1980 that have had over 90 degree monthly averages. In contrast, the 1930's had two. In addition, for the period prior to 1980, there have been 57 months that averaged over 85 degrees while the period since 1980 there have been only 54.
Figure #4 plots the 60 hottest months for the two periods. Clearly, the pre-modern era produced hotter monthly records. These top 60 month plots represent the extreme 14.3% of each respective period.
For CO2 context, total global CO2 emissions are listed for each period (past and modern) on figures #1 and #2. The modern era emission tonnes are higher by a factor of 5+.
The evidence could not be clearer. Huge CO2 emissions, and higher atmospheric CO2 levels, do not correlate with a greater frequency of higher monthly maximum temperature records. This is indisputable.
Does this mean there won't be new record maximum temperatures set in the future? No, it does not. But, with that said, it is highly probable that future maximum records and their frequency have absolutely zero to do with greater CO2 emissions.
Note: Source of U.S. maximum monthly temperatures since 1895 (choose Maximum temperature; choose 1895 and 2014; choose Previous 12-months; choose June; click plot button; scroll down and click Excel icon to download data; in Excel, select period june 1920 thru june 1964 and period june 1980 thru june 2014 (these are the two 409-month periods used in charts);and then sort each period by largest to smallest monthly temperatures. Modern CO2 emission tonnes and past emission tonnes.
Per the empirical measurement evidence published by NASA, the last 15 years of temperature change is not much different than earlier, pre-modern climate change...tepid to lukewarm is about the most alarmist description that fits the CO2 doomsday-cult hysteria.....
(click on chart to enlarge)
As almost everyone (alarmists and skeptics) agrees, climate change is continuous, accompanied by associated temperature changes. Based on the common measurement techniques utilized, over the last two decades the globe has warmed.
However, with that said, the last 15 years of global warming has really not been too impressive - so unimpressive, that scientists are debatingspeculating what happened to it.
In fact, when examining the moving 15-year temperature changes over the last two decades, the NASA research indicates (despite the gigantic modern human CO2 emissions) that pre-1950 global temperature changes were greater.
Yes, you read that right. When examining absolute 15-year changes in temperature, our modern warming doesn't quite measure-up to earlier warming.
The adjacent chart plots 15-year (180-month) absolute temperature changes (i.e. differences) of the two decades 1924-1944 (starting July 1924, ending June 1944); and plots the 180-month temperature changes of the two decades from July 1994 to June 2014.
As the chart indicates, both periods have similarities, but the greatest long-term global warming took place prior to 1950. The linear trends on the charts denote the continuing acceleration of 15-year warming (red straight line) for the pre-1950 era, versus the decelerating trend of our current times (green straight line), as reported by NASA scientists.
And, as can be observed, both the long-term warming and cooling extremes were greater during the pre-1950 decades. Confirming the pre-1950 weather/climate extremes is rather easy - just read the headlines from that era.
Conclusion: Modern climate and temperature change is somewhat tepid when compared to the natural extreme changes during the 1930s and 1940s. It would seem that human CO2 emissions are not causing unprecedented, accelerating extremes in modern weather and climate over recent 15-year spans, and may actually be dampening the extremes when compared to the past.
Note: The above chart is comparing the 2 decades ending June 1944 versus the 2 decades ending June 2014 - both periods exhibit identifiable warming. NASA dataset used for the moving 15-year (180-month) absolute temperature difference comparison and Excel chart. Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
The UN's IPCC claim that large modern consumer/industrial CO2 emissions are causing maximum temperatures to increase across the globe proves to be without any empirical and scientific merit.....NOAA's NCDC division documents U.S. maximum temperatures are exhibiting a declining trend, not catastrophic "global warming"...
The adjacent chart is a fairly simple plot of the 20 hottest U.S. months, with the corresponding atmospheric CO2 level (black dots) for the respective month.
As the latest NOAA empirical dataset clearly indicates:
===> The hottest U.S. months took place during the 1930s, a very low CO2 period
===> The huge growth of atmospheric CO2 levels after 1949 did not produce the predicted increase of catastrophic, ever higher temperatures
===> The average maximum record temperature prior to 1950 (the 10 highest months of 1895-1949) was higher than the average maximum record temperature post 1950 (the 10 highest months of 1950-2014)
===> Despite the massive human CO2 emissions, maximum temperatures reveal a cooling trend of highs since 1950
This NOAA factual evidence for the continental U.S. confirms what has previously reported for maximum temperatures across the globe.
Note1: My bad. Found dumb error on original chart. Now corrected. No corrections to above text required.
Note2: NOAA U.S. temperature dataset and Excel used to produce above chart. Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
Has modern human CO2 emissions caused unprecedented, irreversible and accelerating global warming? Convincingly not, per an analysis of UK's gold-standard climate research dataset...certainly, a very inconvenient climate 'FactCheck'.....
(click on image to enlarge)
Regarding claims of "irreversible" and "accelerating" global warming, the scientific empirical evidence (analysis of monthly measurements) comparisons is indisputable: over the last 15+ years, global warming has gone AWOL, which the climate "experts" are mystified about.
Ergo, modern global warming has been in a non-accelerating state, a status reversal taking place since the late 1990's.
Here and here, the scientific evidence from NOAA, when analyzed from a 5-year climate change viewpoint, clearly shows that both modern U.S. and world-wide warming are not "unprecedented" when compared to earlier 20th century periods.
Moving on to a different perspective, the adjacent chart documents that modern atmospheric CO2 levels growth was approximately 6 times greater than during that of the pre-1950 period.
Yet, this immense growth of modern emissions barely produced an uptick in 10-year global warming averages, when compared to a similar time span for the pre-1950s. This is the undeniable result of an analysis of the UK's HadCRUT4 global climate record dataset.
The difference between the two period's 10-year average increase was a trivial +0.1°C - that's well within the range of what natural climate variation could explain. If HadCRUT3 datapoints were used instead, the difference shrinks to +0.05°C.
These differences are meaningless; of no material, meaningful climate consequence; and, totally undeserving of the label "unprecedented."
Climate Change FactCheck Summation: Analyzing 1,853 datapoints of moving 10-year average global temperatures establishes there is no significant empirical evidence from the gold-standard HadCRUT4 climate records that would even suggest that modern-era warming deserves the "unprecedented" designation. Simply stated, scientists and politicians utilizing that adjective are intentionally being deceptive in order to solely advance a political agenda. Likewise, the deceptive use of the descriptors "accelerating" and "irreversible" are also not supported by any scientific evidence.
Additional information regarding the chart:
From a 10-year average global temperature low, established during November 1976, the modern warming period spanned 410 months, ending during December 2010 when the 10-year average peak occurred.
The pre-1950 (prior to the huge 'modern' consumer/industrial CO2 emissions) 10-year average temperature peaked during May 1945. Creating a similar 410-month span, establishes April 1912 as pre-1950 low point for this apple-to-apple comparison.
The atmospheric CO2 level (ppm) growth amounts depicted by the chart are based on these two 410-month periods.
Note: NOAA global temperature dataset and Excel used to produce above infographic and 10-year averages; or download original data from this site. Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
Previously, using NOAA climate records, past U.S. warming (“global”) in the U.S. was compared to the modern U.S. warming...both warming periods were essentially the same despite the massive human CO2 emissions during the modern era…now an analysis of NOAA global temperatures reveals the same outcome…ah, those stubborn facts.....
(click on chart to enlarge)
The gigantic consumer/industrial CO2 emissions during the modern era are claimed by “consensus” climate scientists to have caused rapid, accelerating, unprecedented dangerous warming, never experienced by humans before. But is this claim really true? Does climate reality support the catastrophic climate change hyperbole?
Nope. But you be the judge.
If CO2 emissions really matter, then their impact should be robustly apparent when analyzing long-term 5-year global climate warming averages. Simply stated, the differential impact from the gargantuan, modern CO2 emissions on global 5-year average warming should be significantly greater than pre-modern, natural warming for 5-year averages.
But that’s not the climate reality. Surprised?
As the adjacent graph of NOAA empirical evidence (5-year averages) reveals, the alarmists’ hyperbolic claims are without any scientific merit. The amount of modern warming (red dots) is nearly identical to the earlier 20th century warming (blue dots) that took place in the absence of large CO2 emissions.
In fact, the 381-month periods plotted in the graph have the earlier period warming to be just slightly higher (+0.01°C) than the modern warming.
To simplify, that’s totally contrary to what the UN’ IPCC and the major US and UK climate agencies have claimed and still widely promulgate.
For those more interested in the details of the chart’s plots, we move to a more complete description below…to the details!
Why was a 381-month (31.75 years) period chosen? Simple. Prior to 1950, the 5-year moving average of global temperatures peaked during October 1944. That peak was reached over a span of 381 months, from the starting trough low point of the 5-year average that occurred during February 1913. Voila, 381 months.
The modern 5-year average peak happened during January 2007. Working backwards to create a similar 381-month span, the start month for the modern period span is May 1975.
In order to produce a visual apple-to-apple comparison of the amount of warming for the two periods, the prior period’s 5-year averages were offset to start at the exactly same point as the modern warming period (‘offsetting’ the datapoints does not affect the slope of the earlier period’s warming trend, nor the amount of warming).
Although it is difficult to discern visually, as stated before, the earlier (pre-1950) 20th century warming actually was higher – a miniscule +0.01 degree higher, but still higher. That’s a freaking amazing outcome since all “experts” claim the modern era global warming was “unprecedented” and “unnatural.”
So what happens when the period span is changed to 300 months (25 years), using the same peak months as before (October 1944 and January 2007)?
It swings in favor of the modern span of warming – by incredibly the same amount of +0.01°C.
And if we used a 35-year comparison instead? OMG, modern warming just went berserk, clocking an unbelievable, higher modern warming of…wait for it…+0.07°C degree. (/sarc off)
And what if the comparison’s NOAA-benchmark was the trough-to-peak warming span of November 1976 to January 2007, a 363-month span (30.25 years)? Compared to a similar 363-month period, working backwards from October 1944, the modern warming was only +0.06°C higher, which is smaller than the error bars of a standard thermometer measurement.
Yep, no matter how one slices and dices the 5-year average warming amounts, the modern era’s warming represents an increase not even one-tenth of a degree greater than the pre-1950 warming – it is not only a statistically worthless difference, it is completely climate insignificant.
What’s the essential point here?
Those stubborn facts: Well, the amount of trough-to-peak modern warming is almost identical to the amount of pre-1950 trough-to-peak warming, which is clear indication that the modern warming was likely due to the same natural influences, regardless of the amount of human CO2 emissions.
Certainly, one can’t conclude that CO2 does not have some role during warming periods, but NOAA’s empirical science research indicates it is ‘best practice’ science to conclude that the vast majority of modern warming was a result of non-human reasons.
As wise old people would say: “it’s the same old, same old.”
Note: NOAA global temperature dataset and Excel used to produce graphs and 5-year averages; or download original data from this site. Hey, don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
The adjacent image represents a temperature reconstruction from the Greenland ice sheet boreholes. The image was included in a peer reviewed paper that was published in 1998, which is approximately the same time the infamous 'hockey stick' graph was produced.
Although this paper confirmed the findings of a massive amount of previous research that the Medieval Warming generated higher temperatures than the current warming, the IPCC instead conferred star status to the statistically-tortured 'hockey stick' graph, which showed the previous warming to be less than the current era, and then was subsequently found to be without credible merit - a statistical travesty.
Why did the IPCC go with the unproven, statistical abomination that quickly smeared (irreparably?) the reputation of climate science?
"Christy’s assessment, when combined with the UEA emails, provides substantial insight into how this hockey stick travesty occurred. My main unanswered question is: How did Michael Mann become a Lead Author on the TAR? He received his Ph.D. in 1998, and presumably he was nominated or selected before the ink was dry on his Ph.D. It is my suspicion that the U.S. did not nominate Mann (why would they nominate someone for this chapter without a Ph.D.?)...Instead, I suspect that the IPCC Bureau selected Mann; it seems that someone (John Houghton?) was enamored of the hockey stick and wanted to see it featured prominently in the TAR."
Additional climate-history articles. The Michael Mann self-perpetuated, embarrassing "science" fiasco continues, as described here and here.
The distinctive global warmings during the modern era and the Medieval Period share similar causes - our solar system's sun, per China's climate scholars...
(click on image to enlarge)
Researchers around the globe continue to build on the mountain of scientific evidence that the Medieval Period had warmer temperatures than the modern era.
And the evidence for a powerful solar influence on temperatures and climate change is substantial and growing.
====> "Here we present[Editor: Chinese scientists] decadally-resolved, alkenone-based, temperature records from two lakes on the northern Tibetan Plateau. Characterized by marked temperature variability, our records provide evidence that temperatures during the MWP were slightly higher than the modern period in this region. Further, our temperature reconstructions, within age uncertainty, can be well correlated with solar irradiance changes, suggesting a possible link between solar forcing and natural climate variability, at least on the northern Tibetan Plateau."
Per NOAA's published annual mean temperatures, the modern warming trend for the U.S., since the beginning of 1950, amounts to an increase of 1.35°C by century end.
But this modern trend is just +0.36° higher than the trend that existed from 1895 to 1949. For the records, that existing pre-consumer/industrial CO2 trend was already at a significant +0.99°C, by year 2100.
Based on the official climate empirical evidence, as the adjacent chart depicts, this recent measly trend increase (a third of a single degree) of climate change (i.e. U.S. warming) is claimed by IPCC scientists to be a result of the modern, gigantic global emissions approximating over 1.2 trillion tonnes since the end of 1949
Yet, the prior period to the modern era experienced a climate change trend that was equivalent to a 1-degree change. Essentially, a built-in, long-term trend some 3-times larger than the additional modern trend increase.
And this larger, pre-modern, in-the-pipeline warming trend took place when human CO2 emissions were a fraction of the modern era's - literally, one-tenth the amount of emissions (see chart).
Then there is the whole embarrassing issue of the great climate science mystery, which includes the U.S. climate records. During the last 17 years that span from February 1997 through February 2014, the continental U.S. actually cooled at a per century rate of -1.0°C (per NOAA's monthly anomalies).
Now what does all this empirical evidence mean?
Well, obviously, the pre-1950 climate change was significantly greater than that of the modern era. Again, obviously, the modern U.S. climate change has been way over-hyped by politicians and government scientists when put into a historical perspective, as above.
Then there is the indisputable NOAA fact that the last 17 years have witnessed a general cooling for the U.S., which, obviously, is at substantial odds with the "consensus" climate scientists predictions and the IPCC's "expert" computer models.
When combining all this very obvious evidence, one can fairly surmise that either global warming is not very "global" or that human CO2 emissions are not a very powerful influence on the Earth's climate or institutional, orthodoxy climate science has failed, badly - or maybe it's a lot of all three.
Another new study by climate "experts" produces even more speculation as to why the modern global warming 'Pause' has unexpectedly happened ... in the meantime, per NOAA.......
(click on chart to enlarge)
(click on chart to enlarge)
The never predicted 'Pause' has no equal as the chart on the left begins to suggest. This chart is a plot of total temperature anomaly differences (i.e. total monthly change, month by month) since February 1998 through December 2013.
NOAA's year-end 2013 published monthly temperature dataset has identified February 1998 as the highest temperature anomaly month ever. And as the chart indicates, for the subsequent 190 months, that 1998 peak was never topped, despite an average 29.5 billion new tons of CO2 emissions per year over that time span.
Since the modern era beginning with the 1950s, that 190-month stretch is the longest uninterrupted "pause" - simply, this is unprecedented since the era of vast consumer/industrial CO2 emissions commenced.
In contrast, the earlier 190-month period ending February 1998 experienced an almost continuous climb of higher and higher temperature changes, culminating in the early 1998 peak.
This steady climb was supposedly the sole result of the growth of new CO2 emissions (this periods emissions actually averaged some 30% less than the subsequent 190-month period ending in 2013).
Thinking the pre-1998 warming phase was of permanent nature, not transient, the consensus climate "experts," and their sophisticated climate models, predicted this steady warming trend would just drone on year after year, as far as the mind could speculate.
And like so many experts in so many other science fields, the IPCC climate wonks were wrong, spectacularly. It now stands at 190 months of prediction failure!
Surprised? If yes, review previous of 'those-stubborn-facts' charts here and here.
Note: How calculations were done: For the 190 months ending December 2013 (left chart), the February 1998 anomaly was the base point. The anomaly difference from this base was calculated for each subsequent month. No calculated difference during the 190 months was greater than -0.0001. Similar difference calculations were made for the 190-month period ending February 1998 (see rightmost chart), with that period's base point being April 1982.
Download NOAA 2013 year-end global monthly dataset used for difference calculations and plots (NOAA changes all historical data points for each new month's dataset, so 'C3' will retain this 2013 dataset for the near future). CO2 emission dataset can be downloaded here. Don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy. Go here to learn how.
Over the last 30 years, the globe has warmed, which no scientist denies.
Likewise, all scientists agree with the NOAA scientific climate facts: ocean warming over the 30 years ending 2013 is not "unprecedented."
Per NOAA, prior to the modern era's huge industrial/consumer CO2 emissions, the global ocean warming was significantly greater, approaching the 2 degree per century rate in 1945.
This prior exceptional warming across the world was duly noted by the mainstream press at the time (scroll down to the 1940s on this page to learn more about previous global warming).
As this accompanying chart of NOAA empirical evidence shows, the 30-year warming rate ending in 1945 was 1.6 times greater than that of the current 30-year period ending in 2013.
And this unprecedented warming of ocean waters occurred during a 30-year period when human CO2 emissions were some 85% less than the modern era (166 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions versus 784 billion tonnes for the most recent 30-year span).
The climate 'FactCheck' summary: the world's climate has experienced a declining ocean warming rate since the 1940s, which contradicts the "consensus" anthropogenic global warming hypothesis, per NOAA. Just another case of those-stubborn-facts ... modern ocean warming is not unprecedented.
Scientists associated with the UN's IPCC predicted that the huge consumer/industrial emissions of the modern era would cause not only "unprecedented" global warming but also dangerous "runaway" warming, which would then produce "tipping point" climate change.
The climate science consensus today is that these speculative climate forecasts, based on flawed computer models, did not happen and expert analysis of the gold-standard of temperature datasets (the UK's global HadCRUT4) confirms it.
As this adjacent chart reveals, modern warming increases over the last 60 years don't even match the warming increases of the prior 60-year period, when earlier human emissions were just a fraction of contemporary amounts. (The vast difference of increases for atmospheric CO2 levels, between the two 60-year periods, is depicted on the chart - an 18ppm increase for the earlier period versus an 82ppm increase for the modern 60-year period.)
The climate science fact that huge modern CO2 emissions did not generate the expected runaway warming over the long-term, nor even over the shorter-term, now has the establishment science journals questioning the obvious - how was the IPCC so wrong?
And this empirical evidence refutation of conventional climate science has become so glaring, that even the traditional mainstream press is finally taking notice that something is truly amiss regarding the IPCC's climate science orthodoxy.
Per the IPCC's gold-standard of global temperature measurements, since the late 1800s, the highest per century warming trend achieved occurred during the 42-year period ending in 1949.
Simply stated, that is when the actual "unprecedented" global warming acceleration was witnessed.
The accompanying graph establishes this as fact, when put in the IPCC context that modern global warming started with the year 1950. This is the decade of the modern era that the newest IPCC report asserts when human CO2-induced climate change began. (See the red circle? More on that fact in a bit.)
Depending on which IPCC spokesperson's claim is to be believed, since 1950 the "accelerating" global warming is not only unprecedented, it's "rapid", "dangerous", "irrefutable", "indisputable", "undeniable", "incontrovertible" and, of course, "irreversible".
However, the empirical evidence does not support any of these claims.
First, the adjacent chart's essentials. The modern period of 1950 to 2013 is 64 years long, which the IPCC characterizes as being dominated by human CO2 emissions with little natural climate influence. The chart's orange curve represents this modern period.
The chart's green plot represents the 64 years ending in 1949 (from 1886 to 1949), the year designated by the IPCC as the end of natural climate change's dominant impacts. Okay, now note the red circle and red dashed line that intersects the green curve: that's when unprecedented warming took place.
Adding some more context, each of the two 64-year periods had human CO2 emissions. For the modern period since 1950, an approximate 1.2 trillion tonnes of human CO2 emissions were released, while the earlier period had some 200 billion tonnes - that's a 6x difference.
Yet, as this charts reveals, the per century warming trends are remarkably similar with the fastest warming acceleration happening in the earlier period. This overall similarity takes place despite the incredible increase of human CO2 emissions after 1949.
Indeed, there are amazing similarities between the two periods but they do have differences. There is a significant divergence of trends at the 24-year mark where the modern warming trend starts to decline while the pre-1950 trend continues to increase for another 7 years. In addition, at the 11-year mark, the modern temperature trend does an abrupt reversal from negative (i.e. cooling trend) to warming for the next 4 years, then it reverses again until it also reaches a cooling trend for the 5-year mark ending 2013.
Ultimately, what is the overall impact of CO2 emissions on modern climate change when using the IPCC's year 1950 start? Over the 64 years ending in 2013, the global warming trend was +0.74°C per century. In contrast, the per century trend was +0.65°C for the earlier 64-year period ending 1949.
That's correct, all that separates these two extended periods of global warming is likely an unmeasurable +0.09°C - nine hundredths of a single degree.
The UK's HadCRUT4 global empirical evidence makes it very clear: modern acceleration of warming temperatures is not unprecedented, nor unusual due to CO2 emissions; nor does the modern period exhibit any warming trend that comes close to even 1.5°C per century. In summary, it is highly probable that any modern warming was just a continuation of rebound warming after the end of the Little Ice Age. In other words, natural climate change still rules.
Synopsis: The unprecedented, long-term climate change and global warming actually took place over 40 years ago.
One of the reasons that the UK's HadCRUT global temperature series is considered the 'gold-standard' is its reaching back to year 1850 - a year that is considered near the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA).
This dataset's superior length allows analysis of long-term climate change since the LIA, including the widely accepted 60-year cycle of global temperatures.
The adjacent chart plots 60-year global temperature changes and cumulative atmospheric CO2 level changes since 1850, using the annual HadCRUT4 dataset.
From this chart, the following can be discerned:
===>Long-term climate change (60-years), as evidenced by temperature change, has been increasing as the globe has rebounded from the depths of the Little Ice Age
===>Long-term warming started well in advance of huge modern consumer/industrial CO2 emissions of post-WWII.
===>Unprecedented warming ended with the 60-year peak around 1969 and subsequent long-term warming has returned to very modest levels.
===>Claimed "accelerating" temperature warming does not exist in the more recent long-term record - however, there are 60-year periods of cooling and warming spurts that are the likely result of natural cycles.
===>Both the chart's fitted trend and 10-year average curve (cyan and dark blue, respectively), reveal a temperature change direction that is vastly different (i.e. opposite) of the trend exhibited by the growing cumulative CO2 ppm levels.
===>The hypothesized AGW positive feedback, which supposedly leads to accelerating temperature increases and long-term, "tipping point" climate change, is without any empirical evidence merit
===>Prior to 1970, HadCRUT4 documents four exceptional 60-year warming peaks that are equal or larger than either the modern era's 1998 and 2010 peak.
===>The chart depicts long-term climate change (per changes in temperatures) that is constant, never ending - at times dramatic, and other periods, exhibiting more subtle changes
In summary, the immense growth of cumulative CO2 levels over the last 40+ years has had minimal long-term impact on global temperature change. Recent temperature changes are more likely the result of a combination of the remaining natural warming rebound from the LIA end and natural cycles, which produced those large 60-year temperature increases prior to 1970.
Peer reviewed studies continue to be published, adding to the unequivocal evidence that climate change was common in the past, often with temperatures higher than modern averages.
The evidence confirms that modern temperatures are not unprecedented nor that human CO2 emissions are required for climate change to happen.
A new study:"A paper published today in Global and Planetary Change reconstructs temperatures in Northern Fennoscandia [within the Arctic circle] over the past 1,600 years.....demonstrating that the Arctic was warmer than the present during the Medieval Warm Period. The paper adds to over 1,000 peer-reviewed published non-hockey-sticks finding the Medieval Warm Period was global, as warm or warmer than the present, and that there is nothing unusual, unnatural, or unprecedented about the current warm period.....Furthermore, the authors find a natural 70-80 year oscillation of temperatures, similar to the 60-70 year oscillation of the natural Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO]." (paper abstract)
World Extreme Temperature Map (click on to enlarge)
For several decades now, consensus climate experts predicted that human CO2 emissions would produce extreme climate change for the world, which would be an existential threat to civilization.
Experts spoke of boiling oceans and Venus-like atmospheres caused by humans use of fossil fuels. At the heart of these soon-to-be catastrophic climate disasters was runaway and tipping point warming - hotter and hotter temperatures that kept ratcheting up.
It didn't happen, though. As the above map of extreme temperatures documents, the last 3+ decades did not produce the cascading, record-setting temperature scenario. When one connects the dots, the predictions of CO2 causing extreme climate change are without empirical evidence merit.
Recently, the climate change myth that global warming is "accelerating" has been shattered by the near-zilch warming for the last 17 years - indeed, to the point where even climate change alarmist scientists are being forced to admit that 'the pause' remains unexplained.
Another climate myth that can no longer weather the empirical storm is that human CO2 emissions have created an "unprecedented" global warming change regime. Of course, this myth completely melts when contrasted to previous climate warmings during ancient and historical periods.
Yet, it is still a widely accepted myth for periods since 1980 - that human CO2 has caused unprecedented temperature increases, far outpacing any previous 20th century warming increases. That is not true, though, per the NOAA empirical evidence of the climate record.
The above chart depicts the last 100 years of global warming increases, segmented by two 50-year periods, which handily exposes the lameness of the myth.
The column on the left shows the cumulative NOAA temperature change over 50 years, starting in 1914, including the atmospheric change in CO2 levels (black vertical bar) over that same 50 years. The column on the right represents the same information, but instead for the 50-year period starting in 1964.
One does not have to be a climate "rocket" scientist to recognize that the earlier 20th century warming increase was greater than the modern warming. And it is painfully clear, even to proponents of this myth, that the earlier warming increase took place while the CO2 level change was a fraction of that during the modern 50-year period ending in 2013.
From this actual NOAA/NCDC climate record, one can fairly surmise the following: First, modern global warming change is not accelerating, nor unprecedented. Second, that natural climate change is most likely responsible (seeNature science journal article) for the majority of warming increases experienced during the two 50-year periods, not human CO2 emissions.
A new peer reviewed study based on an analysis of megafossil tree remains documents the indisputable conclusion: it was warmer during both the Roman and Medieval periods - ergo, extreme climate change can happen without human involvement.
The above plots (click each plot to enlarge) of ancient tree lines from previous research provides ample evidence that indeed climates were warmer prior to human CO2 emissions. This new research examines 455 radiocarbon-dated mega-fossils from Scandinavian region.
that mega-fossil analysis is the only methodology that can "accurately document the existence of a certain tree species at a certain spot and at a certain point of time in the past."
indicates that "summer temperatures during the early Holocene thermal optimum may have been 2.3°C higher than present,"
that "the pine tree line was about 100 m higher than today (i.e., early 21st century) c. 1940 and 1300-930 cal. years BP," while noting that "the same applies to birch by c. 1700 and 1300 cal years BP," which clusters "represent the Medieval and Roman times."
that "these temperature anomalies were succeeded by a distinct tree line/temperature dip, broadly corresponding to the Little Ice Age."
that "the emergence during the past two millennia of at least two short-term tree line and thermal excursions to higher than present levels (i.e. early 21st century) indicates that the current performance of the ecological and climatic systems is well within the envelope of the natural variability
that "the pine tree line (and summer temperature) was consistently higher than present ... during the Roman and Medieval periods, c. 1900 and 1000 cal years BP."
Note: Doing a search of the internet did not result in finding a definition for 'megafossil' yet a definition for 'microfossil' was readily available. For purposes of this posting, megafossil refers to fossilized material that can be viewed with the naked eye.
Steve McIntyre analyzed the Southern Hemisphere historical temperature information contained in the recent IPCC AR5 report and documents an amazing discovery.
Extreme, absurd cherry-picking that defies objective, impartial science.
In essence, the IPCC's representation of Southern Hemisphere temperature changes is biased with unrelated Northern Hemisphere paleo-temperature datasets; the IPCC ignores established, widely accepted Southern datasets such as Antarctica's ice core evidence, as displayed here (click on image to enlarge).
Not only does the IPCC avoid utilization of the the inconvenient Vostok ice core temperatures that reveal the Medieval Warming period for the Southern latitudes, they chose to use Northern datasets that have been widely criticized for being error-filled and massively manipulated via questionable, non-standard statistical techniques.
Like previous IPCC reports, the AR5 edition obviously shares the agenda-science traits of absurd cherry-picking, gross misrepresentations and ludicrous fabrications, which confirms the accusations that green-alarmists have completely corrupted climate science.
Note: As the chart depicts, the polar region of the Southern Hemisphere has exhibited an overall cooling trend over the last 5,000 years, with multiple peaks and valleys. This persistent cooling trend is also evident from the Greenland ice core dataset. While the polar regions share many temperature change similarities, their warming/cooling phases occur during different years/decades with different amplitude - i.e., narrowly speaking, perfect synchronization of polar climates does not exist.
Back in 2008, Climate Sanity did an article about Arctic warming, creating the adjacent top graphic that highlights 14 different peer reviewed studies. (click to enlarge image)
The light pink areas represent large geographical areas where the past Arctic climate, over the last 3,000 to 9,000 years, was warmer than today's.
Recently, 'C3' posted an article regarding 15 studies that determined the Medieval Arctic warming was greater than the current warming.
In addition, the adjacent bottom graphic depicts both past and modern tree lines and permafrost boundaries. This inconvenient empirical evidence confirms that in the past trees were able to grow farther north (due to a warmer northern climate) than our modern period; also, today's permafrost boundary stretches farther south due to a modern climate that is cooler.
Despite this preponderance of empirical evidence and multiple peer reviewed studies about the present and past Arctic climate, a new moss (lichen) study by Miller et al. 2013 makes a bogus claim that today's Arctic temperatures are warmer than the past 44,000 to 120,000 years.
This bogus claim has all sorts of scientific lameness, falsehoods and wild misrepresentations associated with it, as described by experts here, here, here and here.
The criticisms of this study are extensive. But the obvious criticism of blatant cherry-picking is indisputable. As one expert pointed out, this research focused on just four moss sample sites on Baffin Island and ignored the island's 135 other moss sites' samples that completely discredit the bogus "warmer than the last 44,000 to 120,000 years" claim.
latest study's bogus science affirms, anti-science cherry-picking
remains alive and well in "scientific" circles pushing the discredited catastrophic global warming hypothesis. Just another example of 'the ends justify the means' style of agenda-science.
And BTW, the top graphic does not include the recent Baffin Island icecap study and another Island study using lake sediment cores, which both confirm that the modern Arctic temps are cooler than the past.
Climate history is replete with peer reviewed research and historical anecdotal evidence that both the Roman and Medieval warming eras were likely warmer than current modern temperatures.
This new study (see adjacent plot) adds to the cornucopia of empirical evidence that natural climate change (warming & cooling) is a powerful force, taking place constantly. This research also confirms the likelihood that our modern warming is more a result of natural forces than greenhouse gases.
Those stubborn facts of natural climate change are without mercy to those who espouse anti-scientific, anti-empirical claims, especially the bogus "unprecedented" claim, no?
New research discovers ancient tree stumps that existed under an Alaskan glacier for thousands of years.
The retreating glacier confirms that climate temperatures were much warmer from at least the Minoan period to the Medieval era.
At some point, the climate became cooler and the actual trees were snapped at the stump level, then buried in the glacier's ice for centuries. Finally, the stumps were revealed as the climate returned to warmer temperatures in the rebound from the Little Ice Age.
This actual climate evidence is corroborated by the empirical ice core dataset from Greenland. As the ice core empirical evidence depicts, the ancient periods of the Minoans, Romans and the Medieval era were warmer than the present.
This Greenland evidence also reveals that temperatures have been in an overall cooling phase for the last some 3,500 years, which eventually led to the global glaciers' growth that ultimately would bury trees and forests, such as Alaska's Mendenhall glacier described in this article.
This new research adds to the mountain of empirical evidence and studies that refutes the IPCC's claim that modern temperatures (i.e., global warming) are "unprecedented".
Hmmm...the IPCC climate "science" always seems to be contradicted by those stubborn facts, no?
The empirical evidence is irrefutable, no longer debatable.
These 20 studies confirm that the known Northern Hemisphere natural climate change periods, referred to as the Little Ice Age, the Medieval Warming, the Dark Ages and the Roman Period, also had significant impacts on the Southern Hemisphere.
In all cases, across both hemispheres, the large, natural climate changes took place without any human CO2 influence.
This means that natural climate change is caused by other factors that are of either earthly or (and) cosmic/solar origins.
Using sediment cores from two lakes in the Qaidam Basin of the northern Tibetan Plateau, Chinese researchers reconstructed temperatures back some 2,000 years.
Their research was unequivocal: modern warming has been cooler than past warming periods. They also confirmed that the climate naturally made shifts between warm/cool regimes. Plus, the climate shifts appear to be associated with solar activity.
Note: Historical temperature charts and previous climate-history articles.
Anti-science alarmists and pro-global warming ('AGW') scientists are very enamored with multi-proxy temperature reconstructions, which allows "researchers" to statistically blend and torture different forms of data to force a "confession" that modern warming has been "unprecedented" - however, as expert skeptics have discovered, these studies are often found to be empirically and statistically-challenged garbage and end up being a cornucopia of unintended contradictions...the new PAGES2K paleo-torture study is the latest example
The new Kaufman et al. study (aka as the 'PAGES2K' research) is getting its initial web-wide forensic review in multiple articles across the web, including here, here, here, here and here.
The two images above are derived from one of the study's own charts (see the Bob Tisdale article).
The chart on the left depicts those areas of the world that experienced modern warming supposedly greater than any warming over the last 2,000 years; and, the chart on the right represents those areas where modern warming was less than that of certain periods during the past 2,000 years. Both charts have the past 2,000 year atmospheric levels superimposed (the pinkish curve) on them.
It is from the Tisdale analysis that it first becomes apparent that the law of unintended consequences has interestingly come into play - the study's authors have actually built a case (be it likely an unforced error) that supports the views of the majority of catastrophic global warming skeptics/lukewarmers.
From the study itself, and a close review of the above images, we now know the following:
First, as even the New York Times points out, this study determined that the Arctic was warmer during the 1940s to 1970s than during years of the late 20th century. (Sidebar: If the approximate modern instrumental global warming increase of 0.85°C since 1850 is added to the Greenland ice core data, modern warming is still below peaks of the Medieval & Roman periods.) Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Second, the study determined that periods prior to 1000AD had warmer temperatures in Europe. Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Third, this study finds Antarctica was warmer, from the 2nd through 13th centuries, than during our modern era. (Sidebar: If the approximate modern instrumental global warming increase of 0.85°C since 1850 is added to the Vostok ice core data, modern warming is still below the peak temperature between 1AD and 1000AD.) Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Fourth, this study points out that true global warming has not taken place in the modern era, but regional strong warming has. Of the 7 regional areas analyzed, only 3 exhibit a strong warming (more likely only 2, see point #11 below). The other four regions, not so much. Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Fifth, the study clearly indicates that major climate change is taking place at all times, in different manners, across the globe. Climate change is not some new modern phenomenon. Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Sixth, the study shows atmospheric CO2 levels are not a cause of past major climate change. Throughout most of the last 2,000 years, CO2 levels are stable yet climate change is constantly happening. Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Seventh, the study documents that unprecedented regional warming takes place regardless of low/high atmospheric CO2 levels.Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Eighth, this study, in combination with the known recent global temperature trend (subsequent to this study's ending date of 2000AD), clearly makes an indisputable case that recent modern global warming is not as claimed: unprecedented; unequivocal; irrefutable; irreversible; nor dangerously accelerating. Confirms view of skeptics.
Ninth, this study affirms that periods of "unprecedented" warming do not cause the IPCC's urban legend of "runaway," "tipping point," dangerous global warming. Of course, the hottest period ever recorded (Minoan era) in the ice cores over the last 4,000 years already proved that the mythical "tipping point" is just that. Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Tenth, this study again provides proof that the AGW-alarmist researchers will use each and every attempt to remove and/or minimize the exceptional Medieval Warming Period that the vast majority of local/regional paleoresearchstudies, and the historical literature, have well documented. It is simply freaking amazing that this group of researchers would present an analysis of Europe's past warming without the extreme and extended warming of the Medieval era (see chart onright). Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Eleventh, this study clearly proves to the public that the proponents of AGW-alarmism will utilize excessive cherry-picking ofempirical paleo research to fabricate their "scientific" claims of modern "unprecedented" warming. Not only did this study exclude the preponderance of paleo-scientists' research that documents past extreme warming, but this study was brazen enough to include paleo temperature reconstructions that even a peer-reviewed science journal ultimately rejected because of its statistical flim-flam. Without the infamous, widely discredited Gergis et al. study, it is highly likely that the "Australasia" region of the above chart on the left would have to be moved to the chart of the right, above - thus leaving just 2 regions of the world that may have had modern "unprecedented" warming in the 20th century, and only a single region of the world that had "unprecedented" warming since 1970 (recall that this study confirmed the Arctic was warmer from the 1940s to the 1970s). Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Conclusion: This multi-cherry-picking proxy study has many claiming that modern temps are the "hottest" across the globe, over the last 1,400 years. In fact, as the above information clarifies, some regions of the world had strong modern warming (that is, supposedly), while the majority did not. As this study itself determines, global warming, cooling and climate change are not done in some lock step manner across the world in a monotonous cause and effect relationship with CO2. Skeptics of both the IPCC's catastrophic global warming hysteria and the elites' CO2-kills fanaticism have pointed this out for years (if not decades). The geological and historical records/datasets support the essentials of the non-hysterical skeptic/lukewarmers' analysis of climate change, and now this study suggests the alarmist community has inadvertently accepted many of the same views.
The bogus "unprecedented" modern warming claims by the IPCC and catastrophic global warming 'hystericals' takes another body blow - newly released Arctic region empirical evidence (from Svalbard) confirms that Medieval Period was robustly warmer than the world-ending, hypothetical CO2-induced modern warming feared by alarmists
The Climate Audit blog has another article regarding the amazing "scientific" attitudes/methods of paleo-climate "scientists" who embrace the IPCC's left-green-alarmist propaganda.
The 'CA' article includes the adjacent temperature reconstruction chart of an Arctic region, spanning the time period of 800AD to 1997AD.
Clearly, the Medieval Period was significantly warmer than the recent modern warming. The MWP climate warmth took place during an era of low atmospheric CO2 levels and minuscule human CO2 emissions. The evidence reveals the extended, unprecedented polar temperatures experienced prior to the Little Ice Age cooling.
The anti-science Democrats and left-wing greens absolutely hate the Medieval Warming Period (MWP), due to its invalidation of the modern CO2 global warming-climate change hypothesis - no matter their extraordinarilylame corrupted/bogus attempts to prove otherwise, the objective empirical evidence continues to confirm the MWP was an uniquely extended warm era
In another fascinating exposé of climate science flim-flam produced by yet another group of academia climate-quacks, Steve McIntyre has the adjacent chart embedded in his article.
This chart represents a 5,000 year span of temperature variation in the Arctic region (Ellesmere Island) per peer-reviewed research . To add context, we superimposed the atmospheric CO2 levels (mauve curve) from the last 2,000 years.
Several very obvious conclusions can be drawn that gut claims by anti-science alarmists and quacks:
1. Climate change is a science-proven constant.
2. Periods of global warming and global cooling happen frequently
3. The Medieval and Roman periods were warmer than the modern era
4. Temperatures changed regardless of CO2 levels
5. CO2, be it natural or human, is not the globe's "thermostat"
Finally, per the HockeySchtick blog, it is known that the essentially barren Ellesmere Island had temperatures some 2 to 3 degrees higher than current temps, despite the gigantic CO2 emissions of our modern consumer/industrial era.
The UN's IPCC claims that modern global warming is "unprecedented" continues to be robustly discredited by the newest scientific research - another peer reviewed study confirms that the Medieval Warming (plus the Roman and Minoan) periods had significantly warmer summers (Kamchatka, Siberia) than our current period, which has atmospheric CO2 levels exceeding 350 ppm
Read here. Scientists from Europe and Russia reconstructed temperatures from a Kamchatka Peninsula sediment core that contained chironomids. As the chart on the right depicts, the scientists determined that there were extended periods, well before CO2 atmospheric CO2 levels of 350 ppm and greater, when summer temperatures were well above modern temps.
"A paper published in Quaternary Science Reviews reconstructs Arctic temperatures in Kamchatka, USSR over the past 4,500 years and finds the highest reconstructed temperatures were about 3.8°C warmer than modern temperatures. The authors find "the highest reconstructed temperature reaching 16.8 °C between 3700 and 2800 years before the present," about 3.8°C above "modern temperatures (∼13 °C)." In addition, the data shows temperatures between 2500 - 1100 [during the Medieval and Roman warming periods] were about 1-2°C above modern temperatures of ~13°C." [Larisa Nazarova, Verena de Hoog, Ulrike Hoff, Oleg Dirksen, Bernhard Diekmann 2013: Quaternary Science Reviews]
Climate change and global warming/cooling are the constant factors of Earth's history regardless of human CO2 emissions - a new study confirms that unprecedented Medieval and Roman period temperatures in the New Mexico area were significantly warmer than current
(click on image to enlarge)
Read here. The empirical research for the unprecedented temperatures during the Roman and Medieval periods continues to build.
As this chart depicts, the New Mexico region of the southwest U.S. experienced considerably warmer temperatures than those of the modern era.
As can be seen, extreme climate change took place frequently in the past, well before any influence of humans on the landscape and the atmosphere from CO2 emissions.
A paper published in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology reconstructs climate change in central New Mexico, USA over the past 12,800 years and finds mean annual temperatures were ~1°C warmer than the present during
the Roman Warming Period 2,000 years ago, the Medieval Warming Period
1,000 years ago, as well as during other unnamed warming periods in the
past. The paper also shows cold periods were relatively wet, and warm
periods relatively dry, the opposite of the claims of climate alarmists.
Furthermore, the paper shows that mean annual precipitation today is
neither dry nor wet in comparison to the precipitation extremes over the
past 4,000 years. [Stephen A. Hall, William L. Penner 2012: Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology]
UK and U.S. left-wing agenda "scientists," associated with the IPCC fraudulent hockey-stick affair, attempted to dictate to other scientists that the Medieval Warming Period was an isolated phenomenon only experienced by the Europe/North Atlantic region -- most paleo-climate researchers rejected the lame arguments of the IPCC authors and continued to find non-European regions that experienced the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), including Obama's birthplace
Nope, we're not speaking of Obama's first birthplace, the one before he decided to run for U.S. president, although Kenya does have a warm and humid climate.
Instead, the research was done in the Hawaii area, the newer birthplace of Obama after his U.S. Senate election. Specifically, the study was done at the scenicKealia Pond, Maui.
These scientists wanted to determine what impact the MCA had on the tropical island, where the UN's IPCC scientists had claimed there was no impact. As scientists dedicated to the scientific truth, they ignored the IPCC's dictates (i.e., flimsy reasoning) and pursued their research.
"Based on "high-resolution palynological, charcoal, and sedimentological analysis of a sediment core from Kealia Pond, Maui, coupled with archaeological and historical records,"... Pau et al. developed "a detailed chronology of vegetation and climate change since before human arrival."...Most pertinent was the three researchers' finding that "a shift from dry to wet climate conditions marked the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) as evidenced by a precipitation reconstruction based on a pollen abundance index." They note, for example, that over the 2500 years of their record "there have been two major climatic events: first the MCA (AD 800-1300), followed by the Little Ice Age (AD 1400-1850)."...In the case of the early inhabitants of Maui, Pau et al. write that "an increase in forest resources during this wet climate interval coincided with rapid Polynesian population growth," which suggests that the Medieval Warm Period was a time of prosperity for them..." [Stephanie Pau, Glen M. MacDonald, Thomas W. Gillespie 2012: Annals of the Association of American Geographers]
Regardless of which falsehood of Obama's birthplace one chooses to believe, there is no choice concerning the truth regarding the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Its impact has been substantiated by reams of empirical research and peer reviewed articles. The Medieval Warming Period impact was immense, stretching across the entire world, even touching the tropical islands of Hawaii.
The unprecedented Medieval Warming Period is again confirmed by new Switzerland research - the MWP and subsequent cooling are both products of natural forces and not a result of large human CO2 emissions
Read here. The vast majority of scientific research documents the major warming and cooling periods prior to the 20th century. These periods of climate change exhibited large temperature swings across many regions of the world, well before the growth of industrial/consumer CO2 emissions.
A new study by Larocque-Tobler et al. provides more evidence that the Medieval Warming was not only significant, but remains unprecedented in some regions. Likewise, the subsequent Little Ice Age cooling was significantly colder than experienced in the 20th century.
"Working with a lake sediment core extracted in AD 2005 from the deepest point of Seebergsee in the northern Swiss Alps,... mathematically analyzed the taxonomy of chironomid assemblages they identified in the sediments and used the results to reconstruct mean July air temperatures for the past 1000 years. This work revealed a Medieval Warm Period that began some time before AD 1000 (where their temperature history had its beginning) and lasted until about AD 1250, the peak temperature of which was approximately 0.9°C greater than the peak temperature near the end of their record..." [I. Larocque-Tobleration, M.M. Stewart, R. Quinlan, M. Trachsel, C. Kamenik, M. Grosjean 2012: Quaternary Science Reviews]
Conclusion: Natural climate variation can cause dramatic climate change, which the unprecedented Medieval Warming Period represents. This level of extreme climate change can happen regardless of the amount and growth of human CO2 emissions.
Greenland's recording of both natural cooling and warming climate change proves that modern global warming is modest at best - as the evidence indicates, in the scheme of past climate change, current warming is well within natural variation
The Little Ice Age (LIA) is a well documented climate change period that was a global phenomenon. For the Northern Hemisphere, the coldest temperatures were reached during the mid-to-late 1600's, and then a much needed warming rebound started.
The adjacent painting depicts London in 1677, which is almost the same moment when Greenland reached its coldest temperatures after some 600 years of cooling (per the Greenland ice core dataset).
For 337 years since the bottom of the LIA, the world has been slowly but surely warming. That rebound warming though has only amounted to an approximate 2.2C degree increase as indicated by the ice core temperatures (Kobashi et al. estimated a current ice core decadal temperature of -29.9C degrees).
So, in the scheme of climate change, how does this most recent warming compare to previous warmings (and coolings)?
Using the temperature reconstructions from the Greenland ice sheet, it can be determined what the temperature change and duration was for each of the last 10 cooling periods and the last 10 warming periods (including the period since the LIA). From this information we know the following:
Climate change warming periods ranged in duration from 240 to 680 years
Climate change warming periods ranged in temperature increases from +0.8 to +3.7 degrees
Climate change cooling periods ranged in duration from 205 to 690 years
Climate change cooling periods ranged in temperature increases from -1.1 to +3.1 degrees
In contrast to the previous 9 significant warming periods, the modern warming has lasted only 337 years (from trough to current peak) with a temperature rise of only 2.2C degrees. It has been the 5th highest warming of the 10 and is only average in duration.
In contrast to the previous 9 cooling periods, the Little Ice Age lasted 643 years (from peak to trough) with a temperature decrease of 1.6(C) degree. It was the 3rd coldest cooling of the 10 and is one of the longest in duration.
Conclusion: Over some 9,000 years, the ice sheets of Greenland have faithfully recorded natural climate change and the associated temperature changes. These past changes, both warming and cooling, have produced greater temperature changes and lasted longer than the current modern warming and the more recent Little Ice Age. Although increasing CO2 levels from human emissions may have enhanced our modern, modest global warming, the lion's share of the warming rebound is likely from natural forces, which produced the same in the long ago past, multiple times.
Note: We used a 200 year minimum span to identify significant duration periods of warming and cooling.
Climate doomsday scientists and mainstream media proclaimed that modern temperatures were "unprecedented" when in fact they were not - a new study (the Rockall Trough) confirms the global warming science facts: the Medieval Period warming had higher temps
Read here. The Copard et al. team, using gravity core empirical evidence, reconstructed past temperatures of the northeastern Atlantic region. Their research proves these waters off the coast of Ireland experienced higher temperatures during the Medieval Period than those of today.
"Working with pristine aragonite fragments of fossil deep-sea corals of the species Lophelia pertusa taken by gravity core from the southwestern flank of Rockall Trough in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean...authors extracted the rare earth element neodymium (Nd) and calculated its isotopic composition (ɛNd)...revealed that "the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (1000-1250 AD) was characterized by low ɛNd values (-13.9 to -14.5) ... while the Little Ice Age (around 1350-1850 AD) was marked by higher ɛNd values."...And because the ɛNd value of modern seawater recirculating in the northern North Atlantic at surface and intermediate depths is only -13.1 [currently], it can cautiously be concluded that ocean temperatures during the Current Warm Period have not eclipsed those experienced during Medieval times."[K. Copard, C. Colin, G.M. Henderson, J. Scholten, E. Douville, M.-A. Sicre, N. Frank 2012: Earth and Planetary Science Letters]
The 'hockey-stick' pseudo science that the IPCC attempted to fool the public with takes another hit - a new study concerning East China Sea temperatures confirms the known global warming science facts - unprecedented ocean temperatures were prior to modern era
(click on image to enlarge)
Read here. The IPCC's known political agenda requires it to publish "science" that purportedly establishes modern warming as unprecedented. One of the results of this agenda was the infamous and now discredited study known as the 'hockey stick'.
Unfortunately for the IPCC, the vast majority of scientific research confirms that ancient and historical global/regional temperatures do not resemble a hockey-stick with modern warming being higher than earlier periods. And now new Chinese research by Wu et al. has determined the same - there is no hockey-stick.
"The East China Sea SST reconstruction was developed by 5 researchers with various affiliations with several Chinese universities...collected a sediment core from the sea floor in the Southern Okinawa Trough (SOT) over which the warm Kuroshio current flows...The researchers analyzed the top 10 meters of the sediment core, corresponding to 2,700 years of sedimentation and from it were able to resolve 25-yr averages...shows a significant degree of long-term temperature variability...were able to identify the well-recognized climate periods of the past several millennia, including the Little Ice Age (LIA), Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Sui-Tang dynasty Warm Period (STWP), Dark Age Cool Period (DACP), and the Roman Warm period (RWP) along with the Current Warm Period (CWP) beginning in the mid-19th century...the temperatures at the end of the Current Warm period (CWP), are not the highest of the entire reconstruction. In fact, there are indications that there were 25-yr periods during nearly all of the previously identified warm periods in which the reconstructed temperature exceeded the recent average." [Weichao Wu, Wenbing Tan, Liping Zhou, Huan Yang, Yunping Xu 2012: Geophysical Research Letters]
Conclusions: The actual global warming science facts are again confirmed by the newest research. The IPCC's discredited 'hockey stick' was indeed bogus science. Unprecedented ocean temperatures (and regional/global) occurred prior to the modern era of growing consumer/industrial CO2 emissions.
New research keeps being added to the global warming science facts as we know them - a new Siberian study finds that climate has had frequent severe changes in the past and that extreme warm periods can't be explained by greenhouse gases (CO2)
Read here. The image on the left is Lake El'gygytgyn in Siberia. Scientists have been able to extract high resolution sediment cores from the lake that have recorded climate changes over the last 2+ million years.
From their analysis, a team of scientists (Melles et al.) have documented at least 8 significant warming periods in the past, with some exceeding modern temperatures by 5 degrees. The research indicates these warming periods can last for thousands of years without the aid (ie, cause) of increased levels of atmospheric CO2.
"Furthermore, the paper states, "Climate [model] simulations show these extreme warm conditions are difficult to explain with greenhouse gas [CO2] and astronomical forcing [solar insolation] alone." The paper also finds the Arctic warming occurred simultaneously with Antarctic warming, indicating an interconnected, global phenomenon. Implications of the paper include: 1) The globe has been much warmer without human influence during multiple periods over the past 2.8 million years, 2) IPCC climate models are incapable of reproducing past temps and therefore unable to project future temps, and 3) global warming far exceeding alarmist IPCC projections has occurred several times in the past without triggering any "tipping points."" [Martin Melles, Julie Brigham-Grette, Pavel S. Minyuk, Norbert R. Nowaczyk, Volker Wennrich, Robert M. DeConto, Patricia M. Anderson, Anthony Coletti,Timothy L. Cook, Eeva Haltia-Hovi, Maaret Kukkonen, Anatoli V. Lozhkin, Peter Rosén, Pavel Tarasov, Hendrik Vogel, Bernd Wagner 2012: Science]
Conclusions: This research finds that past extreme warming and climate change were not CO2 caused - the empirical observations from the past don't support the IPCC's version of the AGW theory. Extended warming periods do happen naturally without human contribution. Natural warming can be very dramatic. Those are the global warming science facts.
The UN's IPCC and associated climate doomsday scientists attempted to convince policymakers and the public that extreme climate change was occurring in the modern world world and that it was "unprecedented" - the historical empirical evidence does not support that conclusion
(click image to enlarge)
Read here. The UN's IPCC is not a climate science research agency. Instead, it is a bureaucratic political agency charged with "proving" human greenhouse gases (ie, CO2 emissions) are causing "unprecedented" global warming and climate change.
It conducts no original research, instead relying on cherry-picked peer reviewed studies and non-peer reviewed reports from green activist organizations. It prefers research studies that happen to also rely on cherry-picked data and/or flagrantly absurd statistical methodoloiges that produce the infamous hockey-stick presentation of past temperatures. The classic case of this IPCC-style of science, that's since been discredited, is this study and the most recent hockey-stick fiasco that had to be withdrawn is this one.
Because of the easy access to knowledge and information that the internet now provides, we can also discover the past and more current peer reviewed studies that the IPCC chose to avoid, ignore or dismissed because they did not support the political objective of proving the climate evils of CO2 greenhouse gases. One such report from the past that was ignored was conducted by Japanese researchers, which confirmed that modern climate change was not unusual but part of a natural pattern.
"In the early 1990s, Japanese scientists Kitagawa and Matsumoto extracted eleven tree ring cores from cedars on the...Japan island of Yakushima. The cores contained tree-rings going back some 2000 years. The researchers determined the carbon 13 isotope values and found the delta-13-C values fluctuated in a characteristic manner...The results showed that temperatures over the previous 2000 years in South Japan fluctuated over a range of 5°C...A clear millennium cycle is depicted. The cold period of the Migration Period, the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and the Modern Warm Period are clearly recognisable. Moreover, this climate development is well documented in Japanese historical records...They carried out a detailed frequency analysis of their data and found characteristic cycles with periods in the range of several decades and centuries. Among others, they discovered a period of 187 years, which coincides with the known Suess/de Vries solar activity cycle. In a similar manner the 70 and 89-year Gleissberg-cycle was identified." [Hiroyuki Kitagawa and Eiji Matsumoto 1995: Geophysical Research Letters]
Conclusion: Extreme climate change as represented by significant global cooling and global warming periods over the past 2,000 years, is a natural phenomenon. Thus, modern global warming that took place over the late 20th century is not "unprecedented."
Modern temperatures have been claimed to be "unprecedented" yet the global warming science facts keeps intervening - a new ice core analysis from Svalbard reveals the Medieval Period to be much warmer
(click on image to enlarge)
Read here. New study documents Medieval Period winter temperatures that are significantly higher than those of the modern global warming.
This latest evidence comes from the Svalbard archipelago - Longyearbyen is on the peninsula of Spitsbergen, the largest island of the Svalbard archipelago. It is the world's northern-most town, with all settlements further north being research or meteorological outposts.
From the Divine et al. research:
"Working with ice cores extracted from Svalbard at Lomonosovfonna in 1997 and at Holtedahlfonna in 2005,...used the δ18O data derived from them to reconstruct a 1200-year winter...the 11-year running-mean peak winter temperature of the Medieval Warm Period was approximately 9°C greater than the end-of-record 11-year running-mean peak winter temperature." ["Working with ice cores extracted from Svalbard at Lomonosovfonna in 1997 and at Holtedahlfonna in 2005,...used the δ18O data derived from them to reconstruct a 1200-year winter...the 11-year running-mean peak winter temperature of the Medieval Warm Period was approximately 9°C greater than the end-of-record 11-year running-mean peak winter temperature." [Dmitry Divine, Elisabeth Isaksson, Tonu Martma, Harro A.J. Meijer, John Moore, Veijo Pohjola, Roderik S.W. van de Wal, Fred Godtliebsen 2011: Polar Research]
Conclusion: Modern global warming is not "unprecedented." The Medieval Period was a hotter era than our current climate. These are the simple global warming science facts that the empirical evidence corroborates.
The evidence for natural causes of global warming, and cooling, far outweighs the empirical evidence for human CO2-induced warming - a remote Andes mountain region lake confirms an excessive natural warming of the climate during the Medieval Period
Read here. The IPCC continues to proclaim that modern warming (okay, the IPCC does concede that the "warming" has disappeared over last 15 years) is "unprecedented." This proclamation is made based on the UN's political agenda and not the actual empirical research and evidence.
A plethora of peer reviewed studies provide absolute confirmation that prior periods were indeed warmer than our modern era; that both warming and cooling affected the entire globe and not just the European/North Atlantic region; and, that the significant prior climate change was entirely natural, not from human CO2 emissions.
A new study by scientists Fletcher and Moreno provides proof from the Southern Hemisphere that natural global warming is a powerful climatic force that is empirically irrefutable.
"The authors did an analysis of pollen and charcoal from Laguna San Pedro, a small closed-basin lake located in the Andes of Chile. Their results reveal centennial-scale changes in vegetation, climate and fire regime since 1500 cal yr before present...According to the study’s abstract, they found periods of relatively low summer moisture and increased fire activity between 1500–1300 and 1000–725 cal yr BP. The period 1000–725 cal yr BP (i.e. Medieval Warm Period) is characterised by remarkably rapid bulk sediment accumulation, from which they infer prolonged annual sedimentation resulting from a decrease in the duration of lake freezing under a warmer climate. Before the Medieval Warm Period, i.e. 1300–1000, they found relatively moist conditions during summer and low fire activity. After the Medieval Warm Period, from 725–121 cal yr BP, there was slow bulk sediment accumulation implying a cool and wet climate." [Michael-Shawn Fletcher, Patricio Iván Moreno 2012: Quaternary Science Reviews]
Conclusions: Natural causes of global warming and cooling are well documented, not only by anecdotal evidence, but from global empirical research of peer reviewed studies, including evidence from the Southern Hemisphere. It is a scientific travesty that the IPCC rejects the findings of the vast majority of peer reviewed research and instead relies on a handful discredited hockey-stick papers that use the same proxies over and over, and then employ absurd statistical tecniques that can't withstand professional scrutiny. By denying the natural Medieval Warming, the IPCC clearly establishes that the UN political agenda supercedes the actual science.
The IPCC’s climate doomsday scientists claim the modern global temperatures are “unprecedented” - the global warming science facts are irrefutably that past climate was warmer than our modern temperatures with a much lower atmospheric CO2 level
(click images to enlarge)
Read here. Another study, another nail in the “unprecedented” AGW coffin. New scientific research keeps refuting the claims of IPCC and chicken-little pundits. The empirical evidence is robustly overwhelming: global temperatures were warmer thousands of years ago despite low CO2 levels.
The two images above reflect the evidence of the warmer climates some six to ten thousand years ago. The image on the left reveals the history of the northern treeline in Finland and the image on the right the same for Siberia. The simple fact of a more northern treeline in both cases requires earlier periods to be considerably warmer than the current climate.
Now, a new study reveals that the northern treeline in Rocky Mountains was at a much higher altitude from six to nine thousand years ago, which confirms the extra warm climate was not just limited to the Finland/Siberia areas.
“…finds that the elevation of the treeline in the Rocky Mountains of Wyoming was higher than the present from approximately 9000 to 6000 years ago, indicating the climate was warmer during that period as compared to present temperatures. The paper adds to thousands of others indicating that the current warming period is not unprecedented; nor unusual compared to natural warming in the past.” [Scott Mensing, Thomas Minckley, Robert Musselman 2012: The Holocene]
Conclusions: The global warming science facts are often inconvenient - Earth was warmer in the past versus modern temperatures. The empirical evidence refutes claims that our current climate is on "unprecedented" warmth. In addition, the empirical evidence well establishes that warmer climates of the past occurred during periods of low atmospheric CO2. Climate doomsday scientists can take solace that they will be able to continue to predict climate catastrophe without ever being held accountable.
The IPCC and related Climategate climate research agencies conveniently ignore empirical evidence that confirms today's temps are not unusual - data from the Penny ice cap is one such source
(click on image to enlarge)
Read here. Less than credible climate "science" sources, such as the IPCC, continue to claim today's temperatures are "unprecedented" or "unusual." These type of false statements firmly establish the anti-science stance of the political agenda the UN's IPCC agency is pursuing.
The recent global warming science facts from Canada's Baffin Island is another example of the overwhelming evidence that past global warming prior to industrial CO2 emissions was considerably higher.
A team of scientists, Zdanowicz et al., analyzing the summer water melt rate for the Penny ice cap determined its 2010 temperatures were consistent with temperatures of 3,000 years ago - meaning, that current temps are significantly below those of both the Roman and Minoan warming spans. [see their adjacent plot of ice core temps]
"A paper published today in the Journal of Geophysical Research shows that a large ice cap in the Canadian Arctic had surface temperatures higher than the present for the vast majority of the past 11,000 years. The paper also shows that the meltwater fraction in 2010 was slightly less than the vast majority of a 7000 year period from roughly 10,000 to 3000 years ago...At latitude 67°N, Penny Ice Cap on Baffin Island is the southernmost large ice cap in the Canadian Arctic, yet its past and recent evolution is poorly documented. Here we present a synthesis of climatological observations...Recent surface melt rates are found to be comparable to those last experienced more than 3000 years ago." [Christian Zdanowicz, Anna Smetny-Sowa, David Fisher, Nicole Schaffer, Luke Copland, Joe Eley, Florent Dupont 2012: Journal of Geophysical Research]
Conclusion: The global warming science facts are unforgiving - the actual empirical evidence refutes claims by the IPCC and its Climategate scientists that modern temperatures are unprecedented within the higher northern latitudes. To be factually correct, a startling large number of extended periods over the past 7,500 years had global warming in excess of modern warming.
Read here. The IPCC and Climategate scientists, such as Michael Mann, attempted to mislead the public and policymakers with claims that the Medieval Warming Period was an insignificant climate event only affecting the northern European areas. However, the empirical evidence continues to grow that the Southern Hemisphere experienced a global medieval warming climate also.
Analyzing sediment cores from the Merín Lagoon Basin, in the region of the ancient Uruguay 'Los Ajos' mound builders, it was determined from opal phytoliths that Uruguay's climate of 750 AD to 1350 AD was warmer and wetter than those of its current modern climate.
"Focusing on coastal lagoons within the Merin Lagoon Basin, which is located between 31-34°S and 52-54°W in the easternmost part of the South American plains, and working with phytoliths found within various sediment cores which they used to create a temperature index indicative of relative warmth, Bracco et al. discovered a period of time straddling the division of the last two millennia (AD 750-1350) that they identified as having "warmer and wetter conditions than those of the present."" [Roberto Bracco, Laura del Puerto, Hugo Inda, Daniel Panario, Carola Castiñeira, Felipe García-Rodríguez 2011: Quaternary International]
Conclusion: Medieval global warming was a significant climate phenomenon that empirically prevailed across the world and not just limited to the northern European/Atlantic region as fabricated by the IPCC.
The IPCC and Michael Mann claimed that modern Antarctica climate change is "unprecedented' - new polar research demolishes that myth
Read here. Without doing any scientific field research, the IPCC and Climategate's Michael Mann chose to promulgate a non-scientific position that the Medieval Warming Period and the Little Ice Age were only local European phenomena. Their political agenda was to establish the myth that Antarctica climate change was unaffected by the MWP and the LIA.
That myth is no longer sustainable.
The team of Lu et al. published new research conclusively proving that the Antarctica continent also experienced both the MWP and LIA. In essence, the climate of previous centuries is similar to the climate Antarctica now has (as depicted in the adjacent image) - the modern South Pole climate is not "unprecedented."
"At present the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) argues that the Medieval Warm Period was confined to Europe – therefore that the warming we’re experiencing now is a man-made phenomenon...However, Professor Lu has shown that this isn’t true – and the evidence lies with a rare mineral called ikaite, which forms in cold waters...The scientists were particularly interested in crystals found in layers deposited during the ‘Little Ice Age,’ approximately 300 to 500 years ago, and during the Medieval Warm Period before it...‘We showed that the Northern European climate events influenced climate conditions in Antarctica,’...They were able to deduce this by studying the amount of heavy oxygen isotopes found in the crystals." [Zunli Lu, Rosalind E.M. Rickaby, Hilary Kennedy, Paul Kennedy, Richard D. Pancost, Samuel Shaw, Alistair Lennie, Julia Wellner, John B. Anderson 2012: Earth and Planetary Science Letters]
Conclusion: Modern Antarctica climate change is not unusual; is likely to have nothing to do with CO2 emissions; and similar climate variation happened in the past.
The empirical evidence continues to mount that documents the Roman and Medieval unprecedented warming - dust storms from the Aral Sea is the latest empirical evidence
Read here. The adjacent image is a classic example of the extreme environmental devastation produced by progressive / left government regime scientists. Although scientific geo-engineering has destroyed the Aral Sea, its historical evidence still provides further proof that modern global warming is not unprecedented.
The Huang et al. peer reviewed research analyzed 2000 years of dust storm residue and unequivocally determined that both Roman and Medieval minimum temperatures were higher than modern minimum temperatures for this central Asia region - a clear indication of warmer climates during earlier historical periods.
"Noting that dust storms are common features adjacent to the Aral Sea, the authors investigated the grain-size distributions of wind-blown sediments found in a core retrieved from that water body...report that the history of dust deposition in central Asia can be divided into five distinct periods on the basis of their observations: "a remarkably low deposition during AD 1-350, a moderately high value from AD 350-720, a return to a relatively low level between AD 720 and AD 1400 (including the Medieval Warm Period), an exceptionally high deposition from AD 1400 to [the] 1940s and an abnormally low value since [the] 1940s."...coincides with the Roman Warm Period, the second with the Dark Ages Cold Period, the third (as Huang et al. make a point of noting) with the Medieval Warm Period, the fourth with the Little Ice Age, and the fifth with the Current Warm Period...with low/high annual temperature anomalies corresponding to high/low dust supplied in the Aral Sea sediments, respectively...the minimum value of this inverted measure of annual temperature during the Medieval Warm Period was approximately 13% more extreme than the minimum value so far experienced during the Current Warm Period, and that the minimum value during the Roman Warm Period was fully 70% more extreme than that of the present." [Xiangtong Huang, Hedi Oberhänsli, Hans von Suchodoletz, Philippe Sorrel 2011: Quaternary Science Reviews]
Conclusion: Historical climate change, as represented by the Roman and Medieval unprecedented warming documented in central Asia, was a global phenomenon that modern climate change has yet to rival.
Climate science and consensus evidence is now moving to a position that natural climate change causes unprecedented warming (global and/or regional) - a major refutation of IPCC's denial of natural climate impacts
Read here and here. The IPCC's political agenda requires a denial dogma that is built on the concept that natural climate change is minor, thus the recent warming of the 1980's and 90's is a result of human CO2 emissions.
Of course, the lack of global warming over the last 17 years has made a shambles of the AGW hypothesis, plus new research continues to bolster the climate science thesis that natural climate change actually drives unprecedented temperature change. New research by Chen et al. confirms the power of natural climate forcings.
"...they state, in this regard, that "one of the most intriguing questions within the climate debate is if the present temperature rise is unique in the late Holocene or if there have been pre-industrial time intervals where comparable climatic perturbations occurred," noting that "one of these time intervals where historical records suggest that climate conditions might have been similar to today is the so called 'Roman Warm Period' (~200 BC - AD 400)."...developed high-resolution climatic and environmental reconstructions "based on a dinoflagellate cyst record from a well dated site in the Gulf of Taranto located at the distal end of the Po River discharge plume." ...determined that the dinoflagellate cyst warm/cold ratio suggests that sea surface temperature (SST) was "relatively high and stable between 60 BC and AD 200," which they say is suggestive of "slightly higher SST than today." In fact, they say that the association that is observed between 60 BC and AD 90 is equivalent to modern regions that are characterized by higher SST than those in the present day Gulf of Taranto. And noting that "Versteegh et al. (2007) showed that SST in the region is strongly related to local air temperature," they go on to suggest that the region's air temperature "might have been warmer during the Roman Period as well."" [Liang Chen, Karin A.F. Zonneveld, Gerard J.M. Versteegh 2011: Quaternary Science Reviews]
Conclusion: Paleo-climate empirical evidence from the Roman Period indicates that natural climate change causes unprecedented warming, which also may have been the dominant causal factor the modern warming during the 1980-1990's period.