Simply put, the IPCC's climate models and experts are unable to predict cloud formation and coverage, which makes accurately predicting climate conditions an impossible task.
As a result, the models have huge problems with predicting actual polar sea ice coverage and albedo characteristics - a continuing major fail that shreds the IPCC's creditability as a reliable source for climate fearmongering prognostications.
This latest study confirms that the state-of-the-art climate models have proven to be no better at predicting Arctic clouds and sea ice than their grossly inaccurate predecessors.
And as these plots (source) of polar sea ice indicate, the global sea ice area and extent exhibit an increasing trend that is the polar opposite of the IPCC's those fabled "expert" predictions.(bad pun intended)
It is now an indisputable fact that the IPCC's "dangerous", "accelerating" and "tipping point" global warming has gone completely AWOL. This has been well documented empirically, as this temperature chart through October 2013 reveals.
Does this now mean global warming is kaput, in permanent hibernation? Nope.
But it does mean that the IPCC's climate scientists were wrong about future global warming, and that the consensus is now changing due to actual climate reality.
Serious discussions about global cooling have become the reality, much to the chagrin of climate "experts" and IPCC cohorts who have wasted multi-billions on the global warming hysteria.
The scientific pivot to cooling confirms what many have thought and said over the last few decades: human CO2 emissions do have a warming influence on global temperatures but, with that said, it is a minor factor that is easily overwhelmed by both solar/cosmic and natural earthly forces. Apparently, the CO2 impact is so weak it is unable to stop this unexpected (by the IPCC) cooling momentum that could wreak havoc on agriculture and economies.
The adjacent plot (click on chart to enlarge) of global HadCRUT October temperature anomalies from two different periods clearly documents the minor impact of human CO2 emissions.
The IPCC claims that since 1950 global temperatures have been driven by the massive human CO2 emissions. Yet when one examines the October temperature records, it is found that the last 64 years of global warming (1950-2013) is very similar to the global warming pattern for the 64-year period ending in 1949.
The chart's two ten-year moving average curves for the respective periods indicate a similarity that is striking, especially considering that modern human CO2 emissions are many multiples larger than the pre-1950 emissions. Adding to that similarity is the fact that the linear trends for October temperatures are almost the same - only an 18/100ths difference if both trends were extended out the 87 years to October 2100AD.
Indeed, a portion of that small linear trend difference might be due to human CO2 emissions; or, then again, it might be due to the vast urbanization effect over the last 60+ years; or due to the large deforestation that's taken place; or, maybe it's entirely due to the serial fabrication of global warming by the world's climate agencies; or it's even possible that the post-1950 warming was entirely a natural phenomenon - the same as the prior 64-year period experience.
Climate reality and the IPCC's predictions often wildly diverge. The well understood reason for this divergence is simply a result of the UN's political agenda, pushed aggressively by its bureaucrats and sponsored "scientists".
An example of its agenda science is shown in the adjacent plot of actual sea level rise versus 2100AD predictions. (click plot to enlarge)
At the bottom of the chart is the plot of actual sea level rise calculated by Colorado University using satellite measurements. Per this empirical evidence, the sea level trend since 1992 suggest that oceans will rise some 11 inches by 2100AD.
An 11" rise by century-end is definitely not a catastrophe and certainly an outcome that humans can adapt to/cope with. And clearly, it represents a 2100AD level substantially below the IPCC's predicted 24" rise.
The IPCC's prediction not only does not comport with climate reality, other expert research indicates that sea level rise by 2100AD will amount to only a 4-6" increase. Two recent studies, one by NOAA and another by China's experts, represent 'those stubborn facts' that are continually undermining the IPCC prediction fantasies.
When assessing future climate forecasts, it's best to remember that the IPCC's "scientific" reports are climate exaggerations produced by their mandated UN political agenda. Climate science reality is an entirely different animal, though.
As previous studies and data have indicated, sea levels are rising at a very modest rate.
The newest research has determined sea level are only rising one-third as much as predicted by the IPCC - that fraction represents a century-end rise of only 4 inches.
The top chart of actual NOAA sea level metrics was produced by Steve Goddard and it clearly shows that NOAA tide gauge measurements match what the new study found.
As with the exaggerations of "accelerating" global warming, the claims that rapid and dangerous sea level rise are entirely without scientific merit - yep, another bogus alarmist claim fails its validity test.
Not only have the IPCC climate models performed poorly on a global basis, their predictive skill capability on important regional climates approach being abysmal also.
As this new peer reviewed study concludes, the models being used to predict sea surface temperatures for the tropical Pacific have produced results that have standard deviations of some 200% stronger versus observed measurements since the Super El Niño of 1997/98. Not good. Confirms previous studies of climate models.
Essentially, the demonstrably large failures of both global and regional climate models represent a systemic failure created by those consensus "experts."
This top plot of satellite global temperatures is scientifically unequivocal (click on to enlarge):
The actual empirical evidence from state-of-the-art measurement technology reveals a global warming spike during the late 1990's (due to the Super El Nino), but after that, essentially zilch.
Thus, for the last 20 years (240 months) the global warming trend of +0.52°C by 2100AD is 'climate insignificant' - a trend that climate scientists certainly don't get excited about.
And when one examines the last 17-years, the satellite global temperature trend becomes slightly less than zero (i.e. global cooling). As a prominent climate alarmist scientist determined recently in a peer reviewed paper:
“There is a lot of noise in the climate system and it is quite possible that the noise can mask the effects of man-made carbon dioxide for a period of time. However if the slope is zero for 17 years, then we cannot blame noise any more but we have to face the facts that we humans do not affect the climate to any great extent.”
The bottom plot of global temperatures confirms the atrocious climate predictions of the IPCC "expert" climate models. This is irrefutable evidence that the consensus climate models can't predict squat and should not be relied upon by policymakers.
Finally, it is well established that Obama and his administration are serial pathological liars (sounds harsh but it is undeniable). This is not only true in the health care and Obamacare policy arena, but is also a common denominator in their climate change alarmist claims.
The fabrication-fraud-like technique of increasing both regional and global warming has many examples, including several that 'C3' has addressed.
It's no surprise then that scientists are also fabricating a faster rate of sea level increase along with higher sea levels.
Basically, this HockeySchtick article reveals that taxpayer funded scientists are literally figuratively cooking-the-books using satellite altimeter data. The accompanying sea level chart depicts the extent of the fabrication-bogosity.
This revelation of (acceptable?) "climate science" at University of Colorado just provides more proof that government supported scientists in climate research should not be trusted, primarily due their clear cut affection for agenda-science.
With climate science, being a skeptic and cynic is proving to be the best approach.
Although science fraud-like-bogosity appears to dominate climate research, the activity of bogus science is not an exclusive to climate science, unfortunately.
Steve McIntyre analyzed the Southern Hemisphere historical temperature information contained in the recent IPCC AR5 report and documents an amazing discovery.
Extreme, absurd cherry-picking that defies objective, impartial science.
In essence, the IPCC's representation of Southern Hemisphere temperature changes is biased with unrelated Northern Hemisphere paleo-temperature datasets; the IPCC ignores established, widely accepted Southern datasets such as Antarctica's ice core evidence, as displayed here (click on image to enlarge).
Not only does the IPCC avoid utilization of the the inconvenient Vostok ice core temperatures that reveal the Medieval Warming period for the Southern latitudes, they chose to use Northern datasets that have been widely criticized for being error-filled and massively manipulated via questionable, non-standard statistical techniques.
Like previous IPCC reports, the AR5 edition obviously shares the agenda-science traits of absurd cherry-picking, gross misrepresentations and ludicrous fabrications, which confirms the accusations that green-alarmists have completely corrupted climate science.
Note: As the chart depicts, the polar region of the Southern Hemisphere has exhibited an overall cooling trend over the last 5,000 years, with multiple peaks and valleys. This persistent cooling trend is also evident from the Greenland ice core dataset. While the polar regions share many temperature change similarities, their warming/cooling phases occur during different years/decades with different amplitude - i.e., narrowly speaking, perfect synchronization of polar climates does not exist.
Back in 2008, Climate Sanity did an article about Arctic warming, creating the adjacent top graphic that highlights 14 different peer reviewed studies. (click to enlarge image)
The light pink areas represent large geographical areas where the past Arctic climate, over the last 3,000 to 9,000 years, was warmer than today's.
Recently, 'C3' posted an article regarding 15 studies that determined the Medieval Arctic warming was greater than the current warming.
In addition, the adjacent bottom graphic depicts both past and modern tree lines and permafrost boundaries. This inconvenient empirical evidence confirms that in the past trees were able to grow farther north (due to a warmer northern climate) than our modern period; also, today's permafrost boundary stretches farther south due to a modern climate that is cooler.
Despite this preponderance of empirical evidence and multiple peer reviewed studies about the present and past Arctic climate, a new moss (lichen) study by Miller et al. 2013 makes a bogus claim that today's Arctic temperatures are warmer than the past 44,000 to 120,000 years.
This bogus claim has all sorts of scientific lameness, falsehoods and wild misrepresentations associated with it, as described by experts here, here, here and here.
The criticisms of this study are extensive. But the obvious criticism of blatant cherry-picking is indisputable. As one expert pointed out, this research focused on just four moss sample sites on Baffin Island and ignored the island's 135 other moss sites' samples that completely discredit the bogus "warmer than the last 44,000 to 120,000 years" claim.
latest study's bogus science affirms, anti-science cherry-picking
remains alive and well in "scientific" circles pushing the discredited catastrophic global warming hypothesis. Just another example of 'the ends justify the means' style of agenda-science.
And BTW, the top graphic does not include the recent Baffin Island icecap study and another Island study using lake sediment cores, which both confirm that the modern Arctic temps are cooler than the past.
Climate history is replete with peer reviewed research and historical anecdotal evidence that both the Roman and Medieval warming eras were likely warmer than current modern temperatures.
This new study (see adjacent plot) adds to the cornucopia of empirical evidence that natural climate change (warming & cooling) is a powerful force, taking place constantly. This research also confirms the likelihood that our modern warming is more a result of natural forces than greenhouse gases.
Those stubborn facts of natural climate change are without mercy to those who espouse anti-scientific, anti-empirical claims, especially the bogus "unprecedented" claim, no?
As has been noted by publications across the world, the new IPCC AR5 report confirms that the past catastrophic global warming alarmism, relentlessly pushed by the IPCC community, is essentially without scientific merit.
From the editors of the Nature journal comes this scathing comment about the new report:
"Scientists cannot say with any certainty what rate of warming might be expected, or what effects humanity might want to prepare for, hedge against or avoid at all costs. Despite decades of research funded by taxpayers to the tune of billions of dollars, we are no more certain about the impact of man-made greenhouse gases than we were in 1990, or even in 1979 when the National Academy of Sciences estimated the effect of a doubling of carbon dioxide to be "near 3 degrees C with a probable error of plus or minus 1.5 degrees C."
And of course, there is the amazing admission in the 'AR5' report that those soon-to-be, just-around-the-corner climate disasters, that were repeated ad nausem over the last two decades, are no longer on-the-table, so to speak.
And adding to the IPCC's misery, the latest scientific empirical evidence is not kind. The alarmist hypothesis that human CO2 emissions are similar to a furnace's "thermostat" or a "control-knob" has proven also to be a pseudo-science claim, which actual scientists now consider an embarrassment best forgotten.
Regarding that "thermostat" claim, the above plot of the satellite temperature dataset confirms that even 3-year CO2 changes have apparently zero impact on on 3-year changes. (As previously noted, the last 15 years of global temperature change has revealed a zero impact from changing monthly CO2 levels during that period.)
This chart also includes a plot of human CO2 emissions in gigatons since 1981. Clearly, the gigantic-sized annual emissions are not affecting temperature change, as measured by the satellites. With that said, the exhibited increasing 3-year change of atmospheric CO2 levels may indeed be a result of growing tonnage of human emissions.
In summary, the IPCC's alarmism climate "science" has been torpedoed by its own report and admissions, as well as being completely undermined by the actual empirical evidence. This has not only been recently recognized by the mainstream press, but now the major scientific journals supporting the "consensus" view have finally taken note.
Note: Datasets plotted in this Excel chart can be located here. The temperature and atmospheric CO2 level plots represent 36-month (3-year) changes (e.g. subtract the September 2010 temperature anomaly from the September 2013 anomaly). The dark black, grey and bright red curves are second order polynomial fitted trends produced by Excel - they are not predictions, but they do indicate the current direction the trends are taking.
The principal reason they did not address the temperature empirical evidence, as represented in this plot of the data, is that any rational and objective explanation completely undercuts the shaky foundations of the CO2-AGW hypothesis.
The plotted data clearly shows that the previous modern global warming has shrunk to an insignificant per century rate, and may continue to decrease over the near future. This occurs while the levels and growth of atmospheric CO2 continue a relentless climb.
It has been widely noted across the entire blogosphere
(and even the mainstream
press outlets) that the IPCC AR5 summary report avoided the very uncomfortable
truth that modern global warming has gone literally AWOL over the last 15+ years, and the associated
IPCC climate models' spectacular failure to predict
this non-global warming environment.
Understandably, the IPCC's political bureaucrats don't
want to shine a light on their previously claimed "irreversible",
"incontrovertible", "irrefutable", "unequivocal",
"indisputable", "relentless", "dangerous" and
"accelerating" CO2-warming that has turned into the unprecedented
The IPCC's lack of analysis regarding this 15-year
"pause" was replaced with an attempt to obscure the current temperature reality with a laughable decadal
analysis. 'C3' previously
commented on the lameness of the IPCC's decadal 'smoke and mirrors' as did others
The IPCC's decadal approach to relied on 'decadal means.'
There are other approaches, including analyzing decade-end
temperatures, decadal-trends as shown
here or by examining the moving 10-year (decadal) periods.
(click on image to enlarge, sources for HC4 and CO2 data)
In this article, we look at the moving decadal spans
since January 1, 1950 through August 2013 (the IPCC states that at least 50% of
the warming is due to anthropogenic reasons over this 764-month period) versus
the previous 764-month period (May 1, 1886 through December 1949) that the IPCC
infers was dominated by natural climate forces.
From the two 764-month periods, it is possible to
generate 645 moving 10-year average data points for both the modern era and the earlier 20th century period. The
above two charts plot the moing decadal data points for both periods.
Per an examination of the 10-year moving averages for
each time span, there are several points of interest, including:
the vast differences between the two period's absolute CO2 levels and growth
rates, the warming characteristics of the two periods are more alike than
ten-year curves, and their respective 2nd order fits, visually share similar
characteristics such that one could easily and safely conclude that the modern warming was simply a repeat of the
earlier period's warming (note: recall,
the IPCC states that the earlier warming was not due to anthropogenic reasons).
10-year moving average curves reveal that both the earlier and modern periods
experienced a cooling phase, then a significant warming phase prior to leveling
out to a plateau (a 'hiatus') close to the end.
warming phase during the modern era was 417 months in duration; the early 20th
century period had a warming phase of 397 months (only a 20-month difference).
on 10-year moving averages, the earlier warming period produced a +0.75°C per century trend, which is not that terribly
different than the modern warming of a 1.16°C per century trend.
modern warming were to revert to the earlier warming trend (after the "hiatus"), by year 2100AD
global temperatures would increase by +0.65°C. In contrast, a continuation of
the modern warming trend would produce an increase of +0.99°C, just one-third
of a degree greater.
comparing the differences between the lowest to highest 10-year average
temperature for each warming period, the modern change was less than one-tenth
modern era's CO2 level absolute increase and linear trend growth were both
approximately 5 times greater than the earlier periods respective values.
the earlier period's degree change per ppm was over 3 times greater than that
experienced during the modern warming.
Obviously, this type of decadal analysis reveals an
abundance of similarities shared by the two 20th century warming periods. In
fact, this analysis makes it clear that over 50% of the modern global warming
could be a direct result of the same natural climate forces that warmed the world
prior to the 1950s.
This analysis also directly contradicts the IPCC's
anti-science terminology ("irreversible", "incontrovertible",
"irrefutable", "unequivocal", "indisputable",
"relentless", "dangerous", "accelerating" and
"unprecedented") used to
describe the modern era of warming. Simply put, none of these descriptors are
accurate - they are without any empirical scientific merit.
Unsaid in this analysis (and the IPCC's) is that portion
of modern warming associated with anthropogenic factors is not exclusively due
to CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Other anthropogenic forces causing increases
includes a wide spectrum of land-use issues, black soot pollution, 'slash and
burn' deforestation practices, the urban heat island (UHI) effect, poorly sited
climate/weather stations, the egregious fabrication
of modern global warming by governmental climate agencies and other factors.
Finally, this decadal analysis reveals the absolute known
physics of CO2-induced warming: per the actual physics, it has been established
that the climate response (i.e. global temperatures) is logarithmic.
This means that the earlier rises of atmospheric levels (ppm) of CO2 have
a much greater impact on the climate than the later CO2 increases (ppm).
As the charts detail, the CO2 impact on temperature
degrees was 3 times greater during the early warming than the modern warming
(+0.23°C per CO2 ppm
versus +0.007°C per
CO2 ppm). This confirms the actual climate science physics, while at the same time pretty much
demolishing the fears of the totally speculative, failed and unsubstantiated
"positive feedback" physics that alarmists continue to rely on.
The recent IPCC 'AR5' summary report was essentially an admission of failure for the catastrophic human-induced global warming hypothesis. The admission was blatantly obvious as the IPCC bureaucrats did not deliver an adequate explanation for the last 15+ years of non-warming, plus they were unable to even establish what current climate science believes the critical climate sensitivity measure to be.
As result, the IPCC had to resort to lame, non-scientific descriptors such as "unequivocal" and "unprecedented" that were without meaningful empirical evidence. Below is an analysis of their supposed "unprecedented" decadal warming, that when dissected, is beyond lame. (click on charts to enlarge)
These two graphs plot decades-ending global temperature and atmospheric CO2 levels. The graph on the left represents decades prior to the 1950s, and the second graph, those decades subsequent to the 1960s.
Some observations based on this empirical evidence:
#1. From the decade ending in 1909, there were 4 decades in a row that the average global temperature was higher at decade-end (the increase from 1909 to 1919 was indeed very small but nevertheless, it was a warming.).
#2. In the modern era, since 1979, there has been only 3 decades in a row that the average global temperature was higher - ergo, the warming prior to the 1950s remains "unprecedented" in terms of decadal duration.
#3. Clearly, the modern era decades (1980s, 1990s, 2000s) CO2 levels jumped dramatically, approximately 50 points, which is over 6 times greater than the CO2 increase during the pre-1950s decades (1920s, 1930s, 1940s)
#4. If the warming trend of the early 20th century had continued (it didn't) until the end of the 21st century (2099), global temperatures would have increased by +1.92°C; yet despite the huge modern era CO2 spike, if the warming trend represented by the last 3 decades continued (it won't), the increase by 2099 would only be +1.72°C.
#5. The IPCC states that prior to 1950 any global warming was due to natural forces - thus, the +0.41°C decadal increase during the early 20th century was due entirely to natural climate forces.
#6. The IPCC states that the modern warming decadal warming, +0.55°C, was at least 50% caused by humans - thus, it is highly likely that natural climate forces were responsible for the other 50%, say a +0.27°C of the modern warming.
#7. If only half of the modern decadal warming is due to human influences, then it is also likely that the human-caused linear trend would represent a warming rate of only +0.89°C, half the modern 3-decade full-linear trend rate of 1.78°C/century.
#8. Put another way, the pre-1950, the all-natural decadal trend rate of +1.30°C exceeds the +0.89°C modern decadal trend attributed to anthropogenic forces (including land-use, the UHI effect, and of course, greenhouse gases).
#9. If one assumes that the modern decadal warming in reality was simply a cyclical repeat of the early 20th century decades of natural warming, then in actuality, at best, the gigantic increases of CO2 levels were only responsible for maybe a mere +0.14°C increase (+0.55°C - +0.41°C = +0.14°C) over the 3 decades ending in 2009.
Summary: After 7 years of research and billions of dollars on the 'AR5' report, the best that the IPCC can come up with is the thin gruel of "unprecedented" decadal warming, which when examined closely, is a false representation of the makeup, duration and the size of the anthropogenic component of modern warming. Since the last 15 years have proven that natural climate forces simply overwhelm the CO2 impact, the likelihood that modern decadal warming is more a result of natural (non-human) climate forces is the more probable "95% certainty".
Note: Data sources for above Excel charts can be found here.
Those stubborn, ugly facts of modern climate science, documented.
Government climate research agencies, such as NOAA/NCDC and NASA/GISS, do not publicize the fact that they adjust historical temperatures on an almost monthly basis.
They claim that their tampering with the actual historical evidence is "quality control". That's a blatant misdirection, as it is well understood by the people familiar with the situation that there is extreme pressure to report scary "global warming", so as to conform to the political agenda on climate change.
Since May 2008, the web site www.climate4you.com has been tracking the NOAA "adjustments", using two specific months as an example (see accompanying chart).
If there is zero to little global warming, then it is up to the bureaucrats to make it happen.
The most brute force way to fabricate global warming is to adjust those monthly temperatures prior to 1950 downward; then adjust the post-1950 temperatures higher. Wonder of wonders, as the chart reveals, that's exactly what the bureaucrat-scientists did - to the tune of a whopping +2.2°C per century trend rate, in this specific case, since May 2008.
Not so shabby, especially if they can keep that level of science hoaxdom up across all historical months going into the future.
And America's worthless mainstream press goes right along with this fakery, with the sole goal of keeping the U.S. taxpayer in the dark to the benefit of politicians, their favorite greeny-crony capitalists and the 'at-the-public-trough' climate agencies.
The irrefutable, unequivocal, non-global warming trend continues.
As these graphs reveal, the latest NOAA temperature dataset, through August 31, 2013, confirms that the U.S. and its major crop regions are experiencing a cooling trend. (click on graphs to enlarge)
Note, this has taken place despite the largest 15-year production of human CO2 emissions, ever. Contrary to every single IPCC and U.S. climate model.
Update clarification: The above plots from the NOAA web site are based on moving 12-month periods ending in August (each 12-month period starts with a year's September temperature and ends with the following year's August temperature).
The IPCC, NOAA, NASA, the EPA and other agencies promoting catastrophic global warming hope politicians and the public don't realize the significance of the fundamental physics.
Simply stated, the more CO2 increases in the atmosphere, the less influence CO2 has on global temperatures - it's a logarithmic thing.
All climate scientists know this. It's the actual hard physics. (Btw, that "positive" feedback thingy about CO2's "tipping point" impact? That's actually soft science - quasi-speculative, not hard physics.)
The adjacent chart though depicts the factual reality about the ever smaller impact of growing levels of CO2.
The reddish columns represent a plot of global temperature sensitivity to CO2. Specifically, they represent 60-year changes in global temperature divided by the corresponding 60-year change in atmospheric CO2 levels (ppm) - a ratio.
The bright red curve is a simple 20-period average of that ratio, which has been declining since the 1950's. Recall that it is the IPCC that states categorically that modern "dangerous" warming started in the 1950s with the growth of industrial/consumer CO2 emissions.
Finally, the rapid growth of total atmospheric CO2 levels is shown by the black dots.
When it's all put together, per the IPCC, the red columns should be gaining in height as the years pass due to the accumulation of CO2 emissions in the atmosphere grows. Taller columns means that the ever increasing amounts of emissions are causing an even greater temperature change.
Clearly, the empirical evidence reveals that as atmospheric CO2 levels have grown, the impact on 60-year temperature changes has shrunk. From a high in the 1950s, to a very low impact as of 2012 (see blue column).
In summary, it's these stubborn climate facts that expose the invalidity/weakness of the AGW alarmist hypothesis. Sure, CO2 has an impact on temperatures but its maximum impact was decades ago and it is shrinking.
As human CO2 emissions continue to increase in the future, the resultant global warming will be smaller and smaller, and will continue to be overwhelmed by natural climate variation.
Note: Excel used to plot datasets. Ratio is simply the 60-year change in annual HadCRUT4 temperatures divided by the 60-year change in annual atomspheric CO2 levels. Dataset sources.
The global warming alarmist community has had to embarrassingly resort to the lamest of all fear-mongering refrains: "It's the warmest _________" (fill in the blank with decade, year, month, week, day, hour or whatever).
#1. There's been a 'rebound' warming since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA). Per history, this current, natural warming rebound has been unexceptional and could actually last another 100 years - it's happened before, go figure.
#2. As the adjacent chart reveals, the 60 years prior to 1950 had a sturdy per century warming trend of +0.79 degrees, which reflects that natural rebound since the LIA.
#3. As the chart also shows, the modern warming 60-year trend, from the start of the 1950's, was enhanced to a +1.06 degree per century trend - specifically, a +0.27°C added to the already existing rebound warming trend of +0.79°.
#4. Using a 6th order polynomial fitted trend, it's clear that a recovery warming trend started in the mid-to-late 1890s, after some prior sporadic sputtering. And it has not stopped since. Along the way the trend has been enhanced by human forces: CO2 emissions, black carbon soot, urban heat island effects and climate altering land-use impacts.
So, in essence, since 1890 we had 60 years of warming then followed by another 60 years of "modern" warming from 1950 on.
Time to put this together......really, this is not difficult to conceptualize - we've had at least 120 years of warming, with some sporadic ups/downs along the way.
We are not talking brain surgery here.
That being the case, it is obvious, with a very high likelihood, that future time periods will also be "warmer" or the "warmest" - a simple repeat from the known trend over the past 120 years.
Let's summarize: Next month, or next year or the next decade is likely to be warmer due to the natural warming rebound since the LIA. Duh.
To reiterate, this natural, built-in, dominating LIA-rebound warming trend will continue regardless of the added impacts of greenhouse gases and etc.
Thus, it is extremely lame for alarmists to fear-monger about "warmest" since it happens naturally; it is also lame to imply that CO2 is responsible for
the "warmest" anything, since natural climate change basically dictates it; and, it's absolutely ludicrous to suggest that the modern +1.06°C trend (only a 0.92° increase by 2100AD)
at the end of 2012 is "dangerous" or an indicator of an imminent crisis.
Note: Annual HadCRUT4 data used in above Excel chart here. Trends are not predictions nor forecasts.
global HadCRUT4 dataset, updated through July 31, 2013, reveals little
warming over 15 years despite the huge influx of human CO2 emissions and
the subsequent large growth in atmospheric CO2 levels
(click on charts to enlarge)
The chart on left plots the monthly HadCRUT anomalies and monthly atmospheric levels over the last 15 years (180 months).
indicated on the chart, the linear trend for temperatures means a tiny
increase in global temperatures of a trivial +0.58 degrees by 2100AD, if
this trend were to continue (it won't).
In addition, as the R2
on the chart reveals, there has been a very weak relationship between
CO2 levels and temperature anomalies - suggesting an extremely small, to
an almost non-existent, climate sensitivity to CO2.
The chart on the right, in contrast, examines global temperature change and its relationship to CO2 in a different manner.
case of temperature, the right chart plots the the 15-year difference in
monthly anomalies. So, for example, one of the plot points is the
difference (increase/decrease) between the month of January 1850 and
January 1865 - this 15-year difference calculation is done for each month, all the way through July 2013.
The dark blue curve represents the 36-month moving average of the 15-year differences of the temperature anomalies.
15-year difference is also plotted for monthly atmospheric CO2 levels,
represented by the black curve - actually, a 36-month moving average of
the CO2 differences. (To simplify the chart, used an Excel option to
just show the 36-mth average.)
it is very clear that the 15-year differences (changes) in temperature
anomalies have little, if any, relationship to the 15-year changes in
CO2 levels. In fact, the R2 between temperature changes and
CO2 changes is absurdly low - again, suggesting a climate sensitivity to
CO2 as being rather low.
Currently, global warming on a monthly basis is immeasurable and will
amount to very little by year 2100, if this trend continues.
2. The empricial evidence is unequivocal and irrefutable, global warming is not accelerating.
3. The increasing absolute amounts of CO2 have had a small influence, at best, on temperatures during the last 15 years.
Longer-term changes in CO2 levels appear not to have even a minor impact
on long-term temperature changes - maybe a trivial impact, though.
Note: Linear trends are not predictions. Original data used with Excel to produce the plots, trends, correlations and averages. Previous temperature/climate charts.
"The challenges we face are serious. We are already beginning to feel
the effects of climate change – floods, heat waves and droughts are
becoming more severe, driving up food and energy prices. And rising
temperatures and more intense storms pose a serious threat to our
infrastructure throughout the country."
Since he can't be stupid, then his stated falsehoods are done to purposefully mislead others, no? Just like Obama, one would speculate.
(Hmmm...does anyone in this administration tell the truth about anything, ever? Benghazi? NSA domestic spying? Operation 'Fast & Furious' sanctioned gun-running? IRS harassment of Obama's political opponents?).
Regarding more intense storms, it is known fact (i.e. empirical evidence) that neither storm severity nor frequency is increasing.
Case in point: As this plot of global temperatures (NOAA dataset) and tornados since 1950 reveals, world temperatures have trended higher (note pause since late 90's), while the frequency of severe/extreme tornados (F3-F5) trended lower.
A strong correlation between CO2 levels and global temperatures is a necessary condition of the CO2-based AGW hypothesis.
So, what does a strong correlation look like?
for example, the top chart (A) for two economic variables reveals an
incredibly strong correlation, a 'cause and effect' that is strikingly
obvious since 2007. (see original here)
bottom chart (B) reveals the correlation between temperatures
(GISS/NASA) and CO2 levels during the exact same time period as chart A.
Look carefully - THERE IS NO CORRELATION! And over the last 15 years, the R2 equals a miserably low 0.05
Unicorn climate science ignores the empirical evidence, replaced with wishful fantasies that don't exist in the real world.
P.S. Yep, the bottom chart does plot a slight cooling trend for the NASA temperature dataset since January 2007. (NASA/CO2 plot sources here; used Excel to produce the plots, linear trend and correlation)
It has been noted by others that the MSNBC news outlet and the OFA (Occupy / Obamaites) crowd are not the sharpest knives in the drawer, so to speak.
Fighting climate change, supposedly due to global warming / cooling / warming, is an idiot's Don Quixote obsession, especially since climate change is constantly happening, naturally.
And as this actual result happened at the MSNBC/OFA event, it provides proof that the public is a lot smarter than the activists.....my god, Chris Matthews et al. are truly pathetic, no?
Honestly, it just makes you wonder if MSNBC personnel are stupendously stupid or pathological liars or just need to fanatically obsessively agree with Obama despite the current climate reality - cooling.
The taxpayer-funded, billion-dollar black holes known as 'climate models' have been unable to predict squat when it comes to future climate conditions - as with global temperatures, the same holds true for the newer IPCC models predicting Antarctic sea ice extent.....it's the 'same old, same old'
Untold resources have been spent by government bureaucrats in an attempt to improve the dismal performance of the CMIP3 computer climate models. After billions being spent on these IPCC CMIP-class of models one would expect that they would have a confirmed capability to accurately predict Antarctic sea ice reality.
At least that's what 5 climate scientists expected. Wrong.
"The authors write that "Phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) will provide the model output that will form the basis of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]," and they therefore thought it important to determine how well these models represent reality...examined "the annual cycle and trends in Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) for 18 models used in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project that were run with historical forcing for the 1850s to 2005."...report that (1) "the majority of models have too small of an SIE at the minimum in February," that (2) "several of the models have less than two-thirds of the observed SIE at the September maximum," that (3) "in contrast to the satellite data, which exhibit a slight increase in SIE, the mean SIE of the models over 1979-2005 shows a decrease in each month," that (4) "the models have very large differences in SIE over 1860-2005," and that (5) "the negative SIE trends in most of the model runs over 1979-2005 are a continuation of an earlier decline, suggesting that the processes responsible for the observed increase over the last 30 years are not being simulated correctly." [John Turner, Thomas Bracegirdle, Tony Phillips, Gareth Marshall, Scott Hosking 2013: Journal of Climate]
Extreme temperature changes across the Arctic regions are a common occurrence over history - not only does anecdotal evidence corroborate these climate changes but the empirical evidence is indisputable: Arctic temperature swings are big and frequent, and they happen regardless of CO2 emissions
(click on charts to enlarge; source of chart on left)
The chart on the left was produced by Dr. Ole Humlum, who is a scientist/researcher/teacher with a deep interest in the polar regions. He is a prolific author and is responsible for many peer reviewed articles (here is a recent study of his).
This chart comes from Dr. Humlum's invaluable, publicly available climate resource, www.climate4you.com.
The primary dataset plotted on the top-left chart is the Greenland GISP 2 ice core evidence - reconstructed ice sheet temperatures at Greenland's Summit. The bottom-left chart represents a plot of ancient atmospheric CO2 levels that dovetail with periods shown in the top chart of temperatures.
The top chart reveals the wide, extreme swings in Arctic region temperatures, which took place without any significant change in CO2 levels. On the chart, 'C3' has noted the 'peaks' of many of the temperature extremes with red dots. In addition, the points at which the shift occurred to higher temperatures are denoted with purple arrows. There are seven of these extreme upward spikes in temperatures marked in this manner.
For the modern warming, Dr. Humlum's best estimate of what an ice core proxy plot may indicate for a current temperature is marked with a red dashed line. He estimates that a ice core proxy temp for today may be equal to the ice core proxy temp for the Medieval Period. (This is just an estimate, of which there are many. Take your pick.)
The chart on the right is a bar graph representation of the data plotted on the leftmost chart. Specifically, each bar represents the Arctic/Greenland temperature increase from the beginning point (purple arrow) of an extreme temperature increase to its corresponding peak (red dot). In addition, for each bar is listed how many years before the present (ie, 1950) that the 'peak' occurred; how many years until the 'peak' was reached from the 'low' beginning point; and, the associated atmospheric CO2 level for the given 'peak'.
It's a lot of visual information to consume in these three charts, but in general....
1. Past extreme temperature increases happened without a significant change in CO2 - extreme temperature changes are caused by natural forces
2. The majority of extreme temperature increases were greater than the recent modern temperature change
3. Ergo, the vast majority of the modern temperature change could be a result of natural forces, not due to the hypothetical impact of human CO2 emissions
4. The majority of extreme temperature increases were of longer duration than the modern global warming of 228 years (from 1785AD to 2013AD)
5. Ergo, while the modern warming has "paused" over the past decade, it may begin anew adding years to its length, all because of the same natural forces that happened before
6. Since the modern global warming experience has not been as extreme a 'climate change' as the natural past climate changes (in terms of duration or amount of increase) it is highly probable that modern global warming is mostly an 'under-performing' natural phenomenon with a tiny enhancement from human CO2 emissions.
This actual empirical evidence clearly points to natural phenomena as being the culprits of the world's continuous climate change and warming/cooling. The fact that the billion dollar climate models, to a great degree, ignore or minimize a wide variety of these powerful natural climate forces likely explains their well documented, spectacular failures of prediction - the same goes for the consensus "experts."
The IPCC's climate models and multiple government climate "experts" have proven time and again that they are completely unable to make reliable predictions of global climate attributes - this time, the climate reality wake-up call finds Australian government scientists to be wildly wrong regarding their "accelerating" sea level predictions
(click on image to enlarge, image source, temperature data)
As has now become well established, climate experts and their climate models have done an abysmal job at predicting global temperatures. This spectacular prediction failure has led to even greater failures for predictions of multiple climate attributes, including global sea levels.
A new study has analyzed the sea level prediction capabilities of Australian government experts and found extreme prediction failure, which is another resounding testament to the gigantic waste of climate research billions over the last few decades.
"In view of the data presented, we believe that we are justified to draw the following conclusions:
(1) The official Australian claim of a present sea level rise in the order of 5.4mm/year is significantly exaggerated
(2) The mean sea level rise from Australian tide gauges as well as global tide gauge networks is to be found within the sector of rates ranging from 0.1 to 1.5 mm/year
(3) The claim of a recent acceleration in the rate of sea level rise cannot be validated by tide gauge records, either in Australia or globally. Rather, it seems strongly contradicted
The practical implication of our conclusions is that there, in fact, is no reason either to fear or to prepare for any disastrous sea level flooding in the near future." [Nils-Axel Morner, Albert Parker 2013: Environmental Science]
1. Expert climate model predictions of catastrophic accelerating sea level increases are wildly wrong
2. CO2-centric climate models that focus almost entirely on the impact of human trace emissions of greenhouse gases produce erroneous and unreliable predictions for policymakers
3. The IPCC and large government computer climate models can't predict squat
Note: Chart has 36-month average HadCRUT4 global temperature curve (#7 maroon) superimposed.
Anti-science alarmists and pro-global warming ('AGW') scientists are very enamored with multi-proxy temperature reconstructions, which allows "researchers" to statistically blend and torture different forms of data to force a "confession" that modern warming has been "unprecedented" - however, as expert skeptics have discovered, these studies are often found to be empirically and statistically-challenged garbage and end up being a cornucopia of unintended contradictions...the new PAGES2K paleo-torture study is the latest example
The new Kaufman et al. study (aka as the 'PAGES2K' research) is getting its initial web-wide forensic review in multiple articles across the web, including here, here, here, here and here.
The two images above are derived from one of the study's own charts (see the Bob Tisdale article).
The chart on the left depicts those areas of the world that experienced modern warming supposedly greater than any warming over the last 2,000 years; and, the chart on the right represents those areas where modern warming was less than that of certain periods during the past 2,000 years. Both charts have the past 2,000 year atmospheric levels superimposed (the pinkish curve) on them.
It is from the Tisdale analysis that it first becomes apparent that the law of unintended consequences has interestingly come into play - the study's authors have actually built a case (be it likely an unforced error) that supports the views of the majority of catastrophic global warming skeptics/lukewarmers.
From the study itself, and a close review of the above images, we now know the following:
First, as even the New York Times points out, this study determined that the Arctic was warmer during the 1940s to 1970s than during years of the late 20th century. (Sidebar: If the approximate modern instrumental global warming increase of 0.85°C since 1850 is added to the Greenland ice core data, modern warming is still below peaks of the Medieval & Roman periods.) Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Second, the study determined that periods prior to 1000AD had warmer temperatures in Europe. Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Third, this study finds Antarctica was warmer, from the 2nd through 13th centuries, than during our modern era. (Sidebar: If the approximate modern instrumental global warming increase of 0.85°C since 1850 is added to the Vostok ice core data, modern warming is still below the peak temperature between 1AD and 1000AD.) Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Fourth, this study points out that true global warming has not taken place in the modern era, but regional strong warming has. Of the 7 regional areas analyzed, only 3 exhibit a strong warming (more likely only 2, see point #11 below). The other four regions, not so much. Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Fifth, the study clearly indicates that major climate change is taking place at all times, in different manners, across the globe. Climate change is not some new modern phenomenon. Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Sixth, the study shows atmospheric CO2 levels are not a cause of past major climate change. Throughout most of the last 2,000 years, CO2 levels are stable yet climate change is constantly happening. Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Seventh, the study documents that unprecedented regional warming takes place regardless of low/high atmospheric CO2 levels.Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Eighth, this study, in combination with the known recent global temperature trend (subsequent to this study's ending date of 2000AD), clearly makes an indisputable case that recent modern global warming is not as claimed: unprecedented; unequivocal; irrefutable; irreversible; nor dangerously accelerating. Confirms view of skeptics.
Ninth, this study affirms that periods of "unprecedented" warming do not cause the IPCC's urban legend of "runaway," "tipping point," dangerous global warming. Of course, the hottest period ever recorded (Minoan era) in the ice cores over the last 4,000 years already proved that the mythical "tipping point" is just that. Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Tenth, this study again provides proof that the AGW-alarmist researchers will use each and every attempt to remove and/or minimize the exceptional Medieval Warming Period that the vast majority of local/regional paleoresearchstudies, and the historical literature, have well documented. It is simply freaking amazing that this group of researchers would present an analysis of Europe's past warming without the extreme and extended warming of the Medieval era (see chart onright). Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Eleventh, this study clearly proves to the public that the proponents of AGW-alarmism will utilize excessive cherry-picking ofempirical paleo research to fabricate their "scientific" claims of modern "unprecedented" warming. Not only did this study exclude the preponderance of paleo-scientists' research that documents past extreme warming, but this study was brazen enough to include paleo temperature reconstructions that even a peer-reviewed science journal ultimately rejected because of its statistical flim-flam. Without the infamous, widely discredited Gergis et al. study, it is highly likely that the "Australasia" region of the above chart on the left would have to be moved to the chart of the right, above - thus leaving just 2 regions of the world that may have had modern "unprecedented" warming in the 20th century, and only a single region of the world that had "unprecedented" warming since 1970 (recall that this study confirmed the Arctic was warmer from the 1940s to the 1970s). Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Conclusion: This multi-cherry-picking proxy study has many claiming that modern temps are the "hottest" across the globe, over the last 1,400 years. In fact, as the above information clarifies, some regions of the world had strong modern warming (that is, supposedly), while the majority did not. As this study itself determines, global warming, cooling and climate change are not done in some lock step manner across the world in a monotonous cause and effect relationship with CO2. Skeptics of both the IPCC's catastrophic global warming hysteria and the elites' CO2-kills fanaticism have pointed this out for years (if not decades). The geological and historical records/datasets support the essentials of the non-hysterical skeptic/lukewarmers' analysis of climate change, and now this study suggests the alarmist community has inadvertently accepted many of the same views.
The IPCC's discredited alarmist global warming propaganda took another serious hit from a major scientific study on the empirical evidence regarding accelerating sea levels - per the study, sea levels, due to natural, long-term oscillations, likely to increase only a scant 9 inches by century-end
The IPCC's refusal to incorporate and/or accept any empirical evidence that is contrary to their climate models' alarmist catastrophe predictions is well known. As a result, the IPCC's scary global warming predictions have been shown to be egregiously wrong and terribly misleading for policymakers.
The anti-science fantasy approach to the IPCC's political-driven "analysis" has suffered another major blow from a new study by Nicola Scafetta. This latest research confirms previous studies about just how wrong the IPCC has been about those "accelerating" sea level increases.
"This is a major paper, which undertakes a comprehensive review of recent studies, which diverge widely in their findings...main reason for divergence is the length of records used in studies, and shows that the quasi-cyclic oscillations of the major ocean basins largely account for the differences in those studies conclusions...it is shown that the periodicity of the major oscillations, being 60 to 70 years, require a minimum record length of around 110 years in order to prevent polynomial fitting of long term secular trends being contaminated with shorter term quasi-cyclic variation. Using tide gauge records going back as far as 1700...compares the trends in sea level rise acceleration at widely spread geographical locations once the quasi-cyclic components are removed and finds the long term global average to be very small – around 0.01mm/yr...study suggests that sea level rise during the C21st [21st century] will be around 277+/-7mm, or about 9 inches." [Nicola Scafetta 2013: Climate Dynamics]
1. An analysis of long-term empirical evidence confirms 20th and 21st sea level increases have been a function of long-term natural oscillation forces.
2. Potential sea level rise by end of century is highly likely to be less than a foot, well below the IPCC's "scientists'" predictions.
3. The IPCC's climate-model alarmism regarding dangerous, accelerating sea levels due to human CO2 emissions is without empirical merit - summarily, an IPCC fantasy.
The complete failure of the global warming alarmism movement, as represented by the fringe green-fundamentalists, is being welldocumentedon alllevels - ultimately, this spectacular failure is the result of extremists promulgating anti-science climate predictions that ignore the most basic of known physics
Dr. William Happer is one of America's preeminent physics experts, who now calls Princeton University home.
He is the scientific antithesis of those fringe, global warming alarmists predicting climate change disasters and doomsday over the last few decades. Fringe-green personalities such as Joe Romm, Bill McKibben, John Holdren, Michael Mann, Leonardo DiCaprio, James Hansen, Al Gore, Jeff Masters, Paul Erhlich are just some of the quack climate prognosticators-of-hysteria that Happer usually mops the science lab floor with.
And Happer is at it again, taking to task the anti-science clerics in a piece written for the Watts Up With That? blog. His current ire is focused on the crazed CO2-fanatics' claims of future temperatures by year 2050.
In his article, Happer discusses the basic disregard of physics that a hapless (witless?) WSJ reporter is responsible for. Instead of writing about known science, she instead lends credibility to an utterly ludicrous +6.0 degree warming prediction from the fundamentalists, which has no real basis in physics.
As the good doctor explains, per the logarithmic nature of a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels, the subsequent global temperature increase will essentially be a +1.0 degree increase - not 2 degrees, not 3 and certainly not 6. This is irrefutable physics, explained in detail via the requisite formulas.
The real-world physics does not allow for a fantastic 6 degree increases to be achieved; for that to happen, the IPCC's mythical positive feedbacks have to arise.
In reality though, there is no acceptable physics science that supports the belief that positive feedbacks will arise, and at the same time produce the hypothetical big temperature increases. And adding to the green clerics' fallible alarmism, there is absolutely no empirical evidence that the fantasized feedbacks of their consistently wrong climate models even exists (hmmm...kind of like those fantasized, mythical 72 virgins).
With all that in mind, the above chart attempts to visualize (using the gold-standard, IPCC empirical temperature dataset) what Dr. Happer has explained. Let's breakdown this Excel chart to its components:
1. The blue curve (with the bluish area underneath) represents the simple running 12-month average of global absolute temperatures calculated from HadCRUT4 monthly anomalies. Since the end of the Little Ice Age (~1850), the actual global temperature increase has been about +0.85°C, through February 2013.
2. The red curve represents a simple 60-month average of the blue curve's data. The recent decade+ global warming pause (i.e., "stall") is clearly evident.
3. The light orange curve is a 2nd order fitted trend of the global temperature measurements extended out till year 2050. Based on this Excel fitted trend of all the empirical evidence, global temperatures are headed for a 15.0°C average by 2050 - an increase of about +0.53 degrees over today.
4. The darker orange arrows on the right axis represents the likely range of temperature increase from a doubling of initial 1850AD CO2 levels that known physics supports (although Dr. Happer's calculations indicate an increase of+1.0 degree, this Excel chart utilizes a narrow range that many other experts have spoken to). The possilbe range per the physics: +1.0 to +1.5 degrees.
5. The black-dotted curve includes monthly estimates of monthly atmospheric CO2 levels prior to 1959, and thereafter, the actual monthly measurements.
6. The grey curve is a 2nd order fitted trend for CO2 levels extended out to year 2050.
7. Finally, the pink-dashed line represents the non-physics +6.0°C global warming increase predicted by many of the fear-mongers.
This visualization of the empirical reality lends solid observational support to the physics laid out by Dr. Happer. In addition, the chart denotes how absurd the +6 degree fear-mongering is, and why "scientists" and reporters promulgating it should not be believed.
The CAGW climate change alarmists and "experts" fill the mainstream media with frightening tales of looming disasters, including crop failures that will lead to mass starvation - but when compared to global warming reality and actual world rice production and yield, the research and empirical evidence show output results are enhanced, not harmed
(click on images to enlarge, data source, rice image source)
The green-religion fundamentalists have a long history of making crop failure and massstarvation predictions. A 2010 study by a group of academia warming alarmists added to the collection of doom prognostications of coming crop failures, due to anthropogenic warming from human CO2 emissions.
As the above chart on the right indicates however, despite the modest global warming since the 1970's, and the massive increase of human CO2 levels, world rice production increased and continues to do so. Why?
Well, certainly better agriculture methods and technology made fools of the green 'Earth Day' fanatics. In addition, the latest research actually documents with irrefutable evidence that rice crop yield benefits from both warmer temperatures and higher CO2 levels.
Roy et al..."the five researchers from the Central Rice Research Institute of India conducted a three-year open-top-chamber field study to observe the effects of elevated as opposed to ambient atmospheric CO2 concentration (550 vs. 390 ppm), as well as elevated temperature (T, 2°C above ambient temperature), on dry matter production, carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) concentrations in plant parts, and their allocation in a tropical rice cultivar...Results of the experiment revealed the following responses in the elevated CO2/elevated temperature treatment: (1) Dry matter accumulation in the aboveground portion of the rice plants was enhanced by 18.1% at maturity. (2) Root biomass, leaf area index and net carbon assimilation rates also increased significantly. (3) Grain yield was significantly higher (19.6%) in the CO2-enriched treatment. (4) The net carbon yield increased by 24.2%. (5) Nitrogen allocation increased significantly in leaf (13%), stem (14%) and panicle (17%) at maturity. [K.S. Roy, P. Bhattacharyy, S. Neogi, K.S. Rao, T.K. Adhya 2012: Field Crops Research]
1. Global warming alarmists' predictions of world hunger and mass deaths should not be believed
2. Green agenda-driven foretelling of crop failure and starvation from higher CO2 levels and warmer temperatures are obviously without much merit
3. Rice crop yield and production improvements will likely continue despite the doomsday predictions
Remember how NASA's former climate "scientist" James Hansen predicted the oceans will be boiling because of CO2...the data & experts body slam that wild exaggeration (stupidity?) while breaking no sweat
Bob Tisdale is a respected and widely quoted expert on ocean warming and cooling, who often exposes the serial falsehoods and exaggerations of the climate science establishment, much to their dismay.
In a recent article, Bob does it again, this time exposing the bogosities of both the "missing heat" by Kenneth Trenberth's missing brain and then confirming the pathological exaggeration of Hansen's "boiling oceans."
Prior to speaking to the above chart, Bob points out a flagrant propaganda ploy used by establishment climate-alarmist scientists, and the IPCC, which is never challenged by the MSM press (to paraphrase): "OMG, the oceans have warmed by 240,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 Joules!" Hey, that's a lot scary warming, no?
Well.....no, it's actually not a lot of warming. The 24X1022 Joules represent, in the scheme of things, a tiny warming of the oceans - a barely measurable total of +0.09C degrees over 55 years. Of course, the climate "scientists" who use this propaganda trick don't feel inclined to point out that the ludicrous figure with all those zeros is essentially a ludicrous tiny amount of global warming.
The Tisdale chart above is a plot of NODC's ocean heat empirical dataset, and a similar dataset from the UK. Both dataset plots provide essentially the same trend: for NODC, the 100 year trend is a meager +0.16°C increase and the UK's an even tinier +0.13°C.
So, in the case of the NODC findings, the almost impossible-to-measure +0.09°C over 55 years for the top 2,000 meters of the ocean indicates future temps, a hundred years out, will equate to an almost impossible-to-measure increase of +0.16°C.
Contrasting those literal flyspeck trends to the typical James Hansen buffoonery, to boil the oceans would require the current average ocean water temperature to increase some 85°C. Per this actual ocean empirical evidence shown in the chart: NOT GOING TO HAPPEN, EVAAAH!
Then there is the climate-savant Trenberth who thinks all the missing global warming has disappeared into the deep oceans. He conjectures that this 55-year increase will soon start boiling waters from underneath. Hmmm, or is it instead all those warmer ocean molecules will stage a simultaneous break-out of their deep ocean prison and immediately flash-fry humanity with an +0.16° increase?
With these two knuckleheads prominently representing the case for bogus climate alarmism, is it any wonder the most recent Gallup poll doesn't reflect even a single scintilla of the American public being impressed by global warming "scientific" hysteria.
The latest IPCC climate "expert" hypothesis that global warming causes everything, including the recent global cooling, has been verified by NOAA's up-to-date temperature dataset - through March 2013, it would definitely appear that the previous 15-year global warming caused the subsequent 180-month global cooling while atmospheric CO2 levels still remained completely irrelevant
Note: Above chart uses the NCDC global dataset published through March 2013. The left two columns (CO2 & temperature) represent the 15 years (180 months) ending March 1998, the right two columns represent the 15 years ending March 2013.
The bogus "unprecedented" modern warming claims by the IPCC and catastrophic global warming 'hystericals' takes another body blow - newly released Arctic region empirical evidence (from Svalbard) confirms that Medieval Period was robustly warmer than the world-ending, hypothetical CO2-induced modern warming feared by alarmists
The Climate Audit blog has another article regarding the amazing "scientific" attitudes/methods of paleo-climate "scientists" who embrace the IPCC's left-green-alarmist propaganda.
The 'CA' article includes the adjacent temperature reconstruction chart of an Arctic region, spanning the time period of 800AD to 1997AD.
Clearly, the Medieval Period was significantly warmer than the recent modern warming. The MWP climate warmth took place during an era of low atmospheric CO2 levels and minuscule human CO2 emissions. The evidence reveals the extended, unprecedented polar temperatures experienced prior to the Little Ice Age cooling.
For decades, the mainstream journalists have dutifully reported hysterical alarmism generated by a minority of scientists dedicated to the concept of human CO2-caused catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW)...this style of sensationalist, tabloid "climate science" journalism however is dependent on either a condition of stuck-on-stupid mentality or a highly biased, politically motivated political agenda, not on scientific empirical evidence
Read here. Adjacent is a chart that depicts the output of climate alarmism of catastrophic global warming scientists, versus scientific reality. Per this empirical evidence, the experts and their wildly expensive, souped-up CAGW spreadsheet models obviously can't predict squat.
Despite this well documented, spectacular and long known failure of the "consensus," "expert" climate models, the stuck-on-stupid tabloid press is just now coming to grips with their own spectacular stupidity (gullibility?).
It would benefit all Americans, and the rest of the world's populace, if everyone just simply ignored the mainstream press in regards to any type of science reporting - if that were to happen, incredibly wasteful dumb policies would not be implemented by an even stupider class of individuals - the politicians.
While left-leaning U.S. politicians, bureaucrats and the partisan mainstream press continue to push the silly catastrophic AGW hysteria from human CO2 emissions, a significant cooling trend (per NOAA) across a critically important global breadbasket continues - if the latest 15-year global cooling trend persists, crop yields will suffer immensely
As has been well documented, global warming has gone AWOL and in some regions of the world, global cooling trends have materialized, which scientists across the world are starting to express concern with.
In the key crop regions of the U.S., there has been an extended cooling trend that persists despite the immense human CO2 emissions released over the last two decades. The above four NOAA charts depict those cooling trends across the a wide swath of American agricultural production. These charts represent the main American corn, soybean, spring and winter wheat growing areas.
What the huge U.S. breadbasket needs at this point is a few years of some good old fashioned global warming that will reverse the potential devastation a mass cooling would deliver to crop yields.
Unfortunately, though, it appears nature is not delivering what the American farmers and ranchers need this spring.
The anti-science Democrats and left-wing greens absolutely hate the Medieval Warming Period (MWP), due to its invalidation of the modern CO2 global warming-climate change hypothesis - no matter their extraordinarilylame corrupted/bogus attempts to prove otherwise, the objective empirical evidence continues to confirm the MWP was an uniquely extended warm era
In another fascinating exposé of climate science flim-flam produced by yet another group of academia climate-quacks, Steve McIntyre has the adjacent chart embedded in his article.
This chart represents a 5,000 year span of temperature variation in the Arctic region (Ellesmere Island) per peer-reviewed research . To add context, we superimposed the atmospheric CO2 levels (mauve curve) from the last 2,000 years.
Several very obvious conclusions can be drawn that gut claims by anti-science alarmists and quacks:
1. Climate change is a science-proven constant.
2. Periods of global warming and global cooling happen frequently
3. The Medieval and Roman periods were warmer than the modern era
4. Temperatures changed regardless of CO2 levels
5. CO2, be it natural or human, is not the globe's "thermostat"
Finally, per the HockeySchtick blog, it is known that the essentially barren Ellesmere Island had temperatures some 2 to 3 degrees higher than current temps, despite the gigantic CO2 emissions of our modern consumer/industrial era.
The UN's IPCC and its coterie of green-sharia "scientists" have long pursued a political agenda that requires all climate change and global warming to be a result of human CO2 emissions, and in addition, any solar impact on temperatures is absolutely minimal - yet, the empirical evidence does not support said political agenda, including the BEST maximum temperature dataset
Read here. The IPCC's catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) alarmists have long predicted that increasing CO2 levels will directly cause global warming to reach anywhere from 3 to 10 degrees Celsius higher in the near future. In essence the world's maximum temperatures are being exclusively driven to dangerous heights by CO2.
But is that actually happening?
The most recent empirical evidence clearly indicates that CO2 levels are not driving the average atmospheric, global and/or ocean temperatures dangerously higher. And now comes an analysis of the BEST temperature dataset, which confirms the weak driving force that CO2 appears to be.
This graph has monthly atmospheric CO2 levels superimposed onto plots of the BEST maximum temperatures for the U.S. and a solar activity proxy (i.e. Total Solar Irradiance). The blue maximum temperature plot is in sync (up and down) with the red solar activity curve. Obviously, the ever incessant rise of CO2 levels is not in sync with the up and down movements of temperature variation.
"Recent work by NCAR senior scientists Drs. Harry van Loon and Gerald Meehl has also emphasized a physical relationship between incoming solar radiation and temperature. These scientists argue indirectly that, in testing for this relationship, daytime maximum temperature is the most appropriate criterion to use to characterize the temperature. This measure is available for the US from the BEST data set...The reconfirmation now of a strong sun-temperature relation based specifically upon the daytime temperature maxima adds strong and independent scientific weight to the reality of the sun-temperature connection...This suggests strongly that changes in solar radiation drive temperature variations on at least a hemispheric scale...Close correlations like these simply do not exist for temperature and changing atmospheric CO2 concentration." [Article byBob Carter, Willie Soon & William Briggs.]
1. Solar activity is 'best' at explaining an increase in maximum global temperatures and the related variation of global temperatures.
2. CO2 levels explain little of the amplitude of maximum temperatures and are exceptionally lame at explaining monthly variation of global temperatures.
The UN's IPCC claims that modern global warming is "unprecedented" continues to be robustly discredited by the newest scientific research - another peer reviewed study confirms that the Medieval Warming (plus the Roman and Minoan) periods had significantly warmer summers (Kamchatka, Siberia) than our current period, which has atmospheric CO2 levels exceeding 350 ppm
Read here. Scientists from Europe and Russia reconstructed temperatures from a Kamchatka Peninsula sediment core that contained chironomids. As the chart on the right depicts, the scientists determined that there were extended periods, well before CO2 atmospheric CO2 levels of 350 ppm and greater, when summer temperatures were well above modern temps.
"A paper published in Quaternary Science Reviews reconstructs Arctic temperatures in Kamchatka, USSR over the past 4,500 years and finds the highest reconstructed temperatures were about 3.8°C warmer than modern temperatures. The authors find "the highest reconstructed temperature reaching 16.8 °C between 3700 and 2800 years before the present," about 3.8°C above "modern temperatures (∼13 °C)." In addition, the data shows temperatures between 2500 - 1100 [during the Medieval and Roman warming periods] were about 1-2°C above modern temperatures of ~13°C." [Larisa Nazarova, Verena de Hoog, Ulrike Hoff, Oleg Dirksen, Bernhard Diekmann 2013: Quaternary Science Reviews]
The IPCC predicted that sea levels would rise to dangerous levels from CO2-induced climate change - satellite data for Hawaii and a new peer reviewed study eviscerates the IPCC's catastrophic global warming hysteria
The image on the left is the main Hawaiian Island with a red circle denoting the coastal region near the community of Captain Cook, Hawaii. The chart on the right is a plot of satellite data of Captain Cook coastal sea surface heights, and monthly atmospheric CO2 levels, since 1992.
Clearly, per the satellite data, the hysterical IPCC prediction that human CO2 emissions would cause dangerous, accelerating sea level rise and swamp Pacific Ocean islands is totally discredited. Not only has human CO2 not unleashed catastrophic sea level rises (i.e. climate change), human emissions have not unleashed rapidly increasing, catastrophic global warming.
Regarding global sea levels, a new peer reviewed study found that both satellite and tide gauge empirical observations indicate that sea levels are driven by a natural 60-year oscillation. Essentially, sea levels will naturally rise and fall regardless of atmospheric CO2 levels.
"Over the last decade," in the words of Chambers et al. (2012), "numerous papers have commented on the appearance of decadal and longer period fluctuations in select tide gauge records... And in their own study of long tide gauge records in every ocean basin, Chambers et al. find that there is, indeed, "a significant oscillation with a period around 60-years in the majority of the tide gauges examined during the 20th century."...they rightly state that the 60-year oscillation does change "our interpretation of the trends when estimated over periods less than one-cycle of the oscillation." And, therefore, they conclude that "although several studies have suggested the recent change in trends of global sea level rise reflects an acceleration, this must be re-examined in light of a possible 60-year oscillation [italics and bold added]," in further support of which contention they note that "there have been previous periods where the rate was decelerating..." [Don P. Chambers, Mark A. Merrifield, R. Steven Nerem 2012: Geophysical Research Letters]
1. Per the empirical satellite data, human CO2 emissions are not causing an accelerating sea level rise that is swamping Pacific Ocean islands, and thus causing a vast migration of climate change refugees (another hysterical IPCC prediction spread by climate liars).
2. Per scientific research, there exists a natural 60-year oscillation of sea surface heights that better explains sea height change than the alarmist CAGW hypothesis.
The ultimate test for the IPCC's catastrophic AGW hypothesis is the existence of the predicted "hotspot" that is a sign of a positive feedback loop for accelerating global warming - newest data show that even after record setting human CO2 emissions the "hotspot" failed to materialize
Per the IPCC's global warming hypothesis, at the very top of the troposphere, above the equator region, is the location (12km, 200hPa @ 20°N - 20°S) that triggers a positive climate feedback, which produces the mythical runaway, tipping point of accelerated, dangerous global warming, which of course is unequivocal and irrefutable, except when it isn't.
This location is often referred to as the tropical "hotspot," supposedly an artifact of modern industrial/consumer human CO2 emissions.
The high climate sensitivity programmed into the IPCC's climate models is entirely dependent of this hotspot of positive feedback - with the hotspot, climate models predict a scary global warming range that spans from 2°C to 6°C.
If there is no tropical upper troposphere hotspot, then there is no positive feedback, and thus, no climate change crisis as predicted by the IPCC. If there is no hotspot, then the IPCC hypothesis of CO2 caused global warming (AGW) is essentially proven false.
Based on accepted physics, without the positive feedback triggered by the hotspot, surface global temperatures from a doubling of pre-industrial CO2 will increase by some +0.5° to 1.5°C. That is the range climate models predict (depending on the given climate model) if the "hotspot" does not exist.
The IPCC's gold-standard for upper troposphere data is the UK's HadAT2 dataset that represents high altitude balloon/radiosonde measurements. These balloons provide a higher resolution of the atmospheric layer temperatures than current satellites can provide. Over time, approximately 28+ million radiosonde measurements have taken place.
A few days ago (2/19/2013), the HadAT2 was finally updated through December 31, 2012 - the previous update of dataset was through 12/31/2011. The above chart plots the latest AT2 dataset and concurrent, well-mixed atmospheric CO2 levels over the last 17 years. (Why 17?)
Conclusions from the chart:
#1.The IPCC's tropical "hotspot" does not exist.
#2. Atmospheric CO2 levels over 350ppm do not cause a hotspot to occur.
#3. The climate sensitivity to CO2 is lower than expert assumptions.
#4. Temporary natural El Nino events do cause a spike in upper troposphere temperatures but then return to a lower temperature state (no positive feedback loop).
#5. The IPCC, its experts and climate models have been wrong about the mythical hotspot since the UN created the IPCC (1988).
#6. The continuing abysmal failure of climate models is likely associated with the lack of the mythical, hypothesized hotspot.
#7. The AGW hypothesis of tipping point, climate positive feedback is proven false after decades of zero empirical evidence supporting it.
#8. Despite all empirical evidence, IPCC scientists and bureaucrats will keep pushing the hotspot, positive feedback hypothesis in order to continue their lucrative taxpayer funding.
Recently, a new 2012 study by Stephen Po-Chedley and Qiang Fu found:
"It is demonstrated that even with historical SSTs as a boundary
condition, most atmospheric models exhibit excessive tropical upper
tropospheric warming relative to the lower-middle troposphere as
compared with satellite-borne microwave sounding unit measurements. It
is also shown that the results from CMIP5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCMs
are similar to findings from CMIP3 coupled GCMs. The apparent
model-observational difference for tropical upper tropospheric warming
represents an important problem..."
Previous studies have documented the tropical hotspot problem (source for all quotes here):
"Climate models and theoretical expectations have predicted that the
upper troposphere should be warming faster than the surface.
Surprisingly, direct temperature observations from radiosonde and
satellite data have often not shown this expected trend." Sherwood et al 2008.
"On multi-decadal timescales, tropospheric amplification of surface
warming is a robust feature of model simulations, but occurs in only one
observational dataset." Other observations show weak or even negative amplification.” Santer et al 2005
“A recent report of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) identified a ‘potentially serious inconsistency’ between modelled and observed trends in tropical lapse rates.” Santer et al 2008
“Model results and observed temperature
trends are in disagreement in most of the tropical troposphere, being
separated by more than twice the uncertainty of the model mean. In
layers near 5 km, the modelled trend is 100 to 300% higher than
observed, and, above 8 km, modelled and observed trends have opposite signs.” Douglass et al 2007
Update, per a reader's email: First, from the 2nd order draft of the IPCC's AR5, and second, from a comment at Judith Curry's 'Climate Etc.' blog:
"Section 126.96.36.199.2, p. 9-26, lines 31-33: "In Summary, there is a high confidence (robust evidence although only medium agreement) that most, though not all, CMIP3 and CMIP5 models overestimate the warming trend in the tropical troposphere during the satellite period 197902011. The cause of this bias remains elusive.""
"However my working hypothesis is that Santer would have continued to ignore these demonstrations, were it not for the Fu (2011, GRL) paper, which included Syukuro Manabe (godfather of CO2-climate modeling) as co-author also showing disagreement between models and measured temperatures...However, once the Fu 2011 paper came out, it became “establishment” that there was in fact a significant disagreement between models and measured temps. So now after the Fu 2011 paper we have (Thorne, 2011 [JGR], Po-Chedley (2012), Seidel (2012) and Santer (2012) all agreeing that models and measurements for tropical troposphere temperaures cannot be reconciled."
Note 1: A simple
hotspot explanation summarized from this article: Increasing CO2 levels causes atmosphere to warm;
then atmosphere causes Earth's surface to warm; warming of oceans cause
evaporation; increased evaporation leads to more water vapor in the
upper troposphere; water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas that warms
the atmosphere even more (positive water vapor feedback); the Earth's surface warms
even more; and then auto 'repeat and rinse' until Earth's oceans boil, per an "expert."
Note 2: A scientist discusses the IPCC hotspot issue and dismantles a lame pro-hotspot argument (geesh, talk about alarmists' "scientific" mis-truths).
Note 3: The catastrophic global warming alarmists, be they "scientists" or political hacks, are very alarmed that the "hotspot" never materialized. To cover up this major failure of the AGW hypothesis, they usually attempt excited hand-waving to distract the gullible, including: the disingenuous, circular logic claim that it must exist because the models predict it, thus the measurements must be wrong; or the amazing claim that the hotspot exists but it just doesn't reveal itself to humans (really, trust us, it's hiding).
The IPCC's catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) hypothesis is on verge of collapse as non-existent warming facts force unpleasant admissions of truth - and, the empirical evidence implicates increasing clouds as being the culprit for the halt of warming
This chart is a plot of global "warming" as represented by the red curve (a 5th order fitted trend) and the grey curve for CO2 levels (a 5th order fit). As the red curve indicates, global temperatures started sliding lower during the early 2000's.
The highly variable thin blue line is a plot of global cloud coverage from this source with the following change: the blue curve has been inverted. The result being that when the blue curve goes up, that indicates a smaller cloud coverage; when the blue curve goes down, that means the cloud coverage is increasing.
As this chart clearly depicts, when cloud coverage decreases, allowing more solar energy to reach the surface, the global temperatures climb (note the 1980-1990's period). In addition, the warming stopped and started to slide lower when the cloud coverage increased after the 1990s - apparently, small changes in cloud coverage are quite powerful in terms of subsequent temperature trends.
Obviously, there is a significant relationship between clouds and temperatures. Just as obviously, the relationship between CO2 and global temperatures (and clouds) is from weak to lame, at best - confirming evidence here.
The physics is not difficult to understand by skeptics, nor objective scientists: less clouds allow more sunshine to strike the Earth's surface (1980-1990s); more clouds decrease sunshine at surface (2000s).
Although the cloud coverage data are only available through 2009 for the above chart, a recent 2012 study verifies that cloud coverage is a major determinant of global warming (climate change):
“The global average cloud cover declined about 1.56% over 39 years (1979
to 2009) or ~0.4%/decade, primarily in middle latitudes at middle and
high levels (Eastman & Warren, 2012). Declining clouds
appear to be a major contributor to the observed global warming. A 1
percentage point decrease in albedo (30% to 29%) would increase the
black-body radiative equilibrium temperature about 1°C, about equal to a
doubling of atmospheric CO2. e.g. by a 1.5% reduction in clouds since they form up to 2/3rds of global albedo (IPCC report AR4 1.5.2 p.114). [Ryan Eastman, Stephen G. Warren, A 39-Year Survey of Cloud Changes from Land Stations Worldwide 1971-2009: Journal of Climate]
#1: Evidence indicates a strong relationship between clouds and global temperatures.
#2. Evidence indicates a weak relationship between CO2 levels and global temperatures.....major, catastrophic global warming from CO2 is highly unlikely
#3. Evidence indicates a weak relationship between CO2 levels and global cloud coverage.
#4. Clouds are so important to global temperatures, crazed alarmist billionaires are investing huge amounts to manufacture anti-warming, floating cloud machines.
#5. The IPCC climate models are programmed to predict the opposite of what objective scientists believe due to the above actual evidence, and what crazy billionaires know (and will invest) due to common sense.
Climate change and global warming/cooling are the constant factors of Earth's history regardless of human CO2 emissions - a new study confirms that unprecedented Medieval and Roman period temperatures in the New Mexico area were significantly warmer than current
(click on image to enlarge)
Read here. The empirical research for the unprecedented temperatures during the Roman and Medieval periods continues to build.
As this chart depicts, the New Mexico region of the southwest U.S. experienced considerably warmer temperatures than those of the modern era.
As can be seen, extreme climate change took place frequently in the past, well before any influence of humans on the landscape and the atmosphere from CO2 emissions.
A paper published in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology reconstructs climate change in central New Mexico, USA over the past 12,800 years and finds mean annual temperatures were ~1°C warmer than the present during
the Roman Warming Period 2,000 years ago, the Medieval Warming Period
1,000 years ago, as well as during other unnamed warming periods in the
past. The paper also shows cold periods were relatively wet, and warm
periods relatively dry, the opposite of the claims of climate alarmists.
Furthermore, the paper shows that mean annual precipitation today is
neither dry nor wet in comparison to the precipitation extremes over the
past 4,000 years. [Stephen A. Hall, William L. Penner 2012: Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology]
Simply stated, the Obama Administration and leading Democrats refuse to be honest with the American public - the empirical evidence and climate scientists now confirm that real global warming and climate change will be significantly less than predicted, making the politician lies even more troubling
As previously discussed, the consensus regarding future global warming and climate change has fallen apart.
Essentially, the climate research agencies programmed their computer models with an extremely high sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 levels. As a result, these computer climate simulations predicted outlandishly high future temperatures.
These alarmist, catastrophic temperature simulations were portrayed to the public by the mainstream media, the United Nations and Obama's big government advocates as gospel truth, when in fact they were nothing more than hypothetical speculations with no empirical foundation.
The above two charts provide further proof that computer model simulations were spectacularly wrong.
The IPCC chart on the left has a mauve curve that represents future temperatures if CO2 emissions were held constant at 2000 levels. This chart also has two red lines of actual observed HadCRUT global temperature trends (red lines) when projected out to 2100AD.
Clearly, observed temperature trends are predicting a future temp that resembles the IPCC projection if CO2 was held constant - the actual trends are multiple times below the "runaway" and "accelerating" global warming that Obama and the IPCC still push.
The second chart on the right plots the IPCC's different CO2 scenarios that the world may follow. A close examination of this chart reveals that actual CO2 emissions continue to follow the 'business as usual' scenario (A1F1), which the IPCC and Obama state is the cause of "runaway" global warming and climate change.
Since the "runaway" and "accelerating" scenarios have been ginormous scientific failures, as previously discussed, AGW scientists and alarmists/advocates are having to seriously re-think the basic assumptions of catastrophic global warming.
As is usually the case though, the now proven bad, anti-science is not stopping Obama and his Democrat comrades in their attempts to perpetrate a new tax Americans on carbon usage.
Via the IPCC's gold-standard temperature dataset, it has become undisputed fact that global warming isn't - experts and pundits alike are searching for the reasons why and how this gross prediction failure took place, with most concurring (even the NY Times) that climate models' sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 levels was severely exaggerated - go figure
Multiple outlets, including the NY Times, have recently written about new research that is finding climate models' programmed sensitivity to CO2 levels being pegged too high. Sample articles explaining the underlying problem with climate sensitivity research can be found here, here , here, here, and here.
The adjacent chart points to the serious problem with the original high sensitivity estimates from the IPCC and others. (The gold-standard HadCRUT global and CET temperature datasets are plotted.)
In the case of the IPCC, they published a flat-out fear-mongering sensitivity that in computer simulations would produce a temperature increase of +6.4°C (pink line) by 2100AD, if CO2 emissions were not stabilized. This incredibly high computer output was designed to scare policymakers and the mainstream media into action.
And, there are even higher published estimates of sensitivity, which will never happen in the real-world, but are touted as potential realistic threats (climate science gospel) to the gullible with deep pockets and a pennant for government intrusion. Case in point:
“...one of them stated quite openly in a meeting I attended a few years ago that he deliberately lied in these sort of elicitation exercises (i.e. exaggerating the probability of high sensitivity) in order to help motivate political action..." quote from climate modeler, AGW proponent James Annan
As a reminder, this description of a scientist's behavior comports with the incredible level of climate scientist fraud, deception and falsehoods revealed by the embarrassing publication of the Climategate emails. Venal, corrupt anti-science attitudes continue to run blatant and deep in the climate science community.
Back to the chart...in reality, CO2 emissions have not stabilized, they are growing in a 'business as usual' manner yet the impact on global temperatures has been minimal. As the chart depicts, over the last 15 years global warming is increasing at a 0.17°C per century rate, a sliver-fraction of the IPCC absurd sensitivity simulated outcome. Other straight red lines on the chart tell the same story - the IPCC's climate sensitivity produces temperature predictions out-of-touch with this real-world empirical observational evidence.
"But the point stands, that the IPCC’s sensitivity estimate cannot
readily be reconciled with forcing estimates and observational data. All
the recent literature that approaches the question from this angle
comes up with similar answers. By failing to meet this problem head-on,
the IPCC authors now find themselves in a bit of a pickle." quote from climate modeler, AGW proponent James Annan
The same story holds true for the chart's plot of Central England Temperatures (CET) (green curve and lines). Over the last 15-years, the CET century trend is a surprisingly minus 3.8°C. That is a significant cooling trend (in contrast, the last 15 years has the U.S. at a minus 0.94°C trend) that should not happen in a high sensitivity, tipping-point type of warming world.
#1. There is no scientific consensus about the correct climate sensitivity to CO2 levels.
#2. A scientific consensus is building though regarding the IPCC and other climate model agencies having exaggerated the sensitivity in the past, and a need to lower the models' said sensitivity to better match reality.
#3. Past real-world global warming (see jagged red chart curve) is not dangerous, nor accelerating - instead, it is presently flat with an equal possibility of becoming a cooling trend, or resuming its non-alarming warming trend
#4. CO2 levels would appear to have a weak influence on both global and regional temperatures.
100% of climate scientists now agree that accelerating global warming has robustly stalled- the IPCC's gold-standard UK HadCRUT global temperature dataset confirms what skeptical scientists have long publicly discussed
There no longer is any serious debate of the non-existence of dangerous, accelerating global warming from human CO2 emissions - literally, from all current climate empirical evidence, it does not exist.
In the scientific real world though, there is an abundance of peer reviewed, solid scientific evidence pointing conclusively to a future of both moderate temperature and climate change.
As the above chart reveals, atmospheric CO2 levels have constantly increased since 1990 - see recent CO2 charts here.
In contrast, the IPCC's gold-standard global dataset (above chart) confirms temperatures have stalled since 1998 - actually, they have slightly cooled at a -0.08 degrees/century trend.
The chart's solid blue curve is a simple three year moving average of non-scary global temperature change that current political elites conveniently ignores and the MSM refuses to report.
Current global temperatures are significantly below NASA's climate model and "expert" predictions - note the dotted red line on chart.
All the major climate agency computer models, based on human CO2 emissions, have failed spectacularly.
Modern weather disasters (e.g., blizzards, tropical storms, etc.) portrayed by political elites and MSM "reporters" as caused by "climate change" are the exactly the same bad weather disasters that took place during earlier periods of low atmospheric CO2.
The statistical fabrication known as the "hockey stick" has been thoroughly discredited as being proof that modern global warming is unprecedented - adding to the growing empirical evidence that the "hockey stick" was bogus, a new study of Scandinavian temperatures reveals the greater warmth of both the Roman and Medieval Periods
Read here. As several new 2012 studies of the Arctic and Antarctic regions have determined, modern warming is not unprecedented versus the Medieval and Roman periods.
The current research coming out of the polar regions is confirmed by a group of European scientists utilizing the latest research technology in a non-polar region.
As can be seen, this new research from Esper et al. is depicted adjacent - clearly, summer temperatures during the Roman period, sans consumer/industrial human CO2 emissions, were significantly warmer than the current period.
"The authors developed 587 high-resolution wood density profiles from living and sub-fossil Pinus sylvestris (scots Pine) trees of northern Sweden and Finland to form a long-term maximum latewood density (MXD) record stretching from 138 BC to AD 2006, wherein all MXD measurements were derived from high-precision X-ray radiodensitometry...And in comparing their results with the earlier temperature reconstructions of others, they say that their MXD-based summer temperature reconstruction "sets a new standard in high-resolution palaeoclimatology,"...the four researchers state that their new temperature history "provides evidence for substantial warmth during Roman and Medieval times, larger in extent and longer in duration than 20th century warmth."[Jan Esper, Ulf Büntgen, Mauri Timonen, David C. Frank 2012: Global and Planetary Change]
Conclusions: As the irrefutable empirical research mounts, it is becoming untenable for politicians, regulating bureaucrats and taxpayer funded scientists to maintain the falsehood that modern global warming has been unprecedented. The latest objective, scientific research from across the world confirms that modern warming is not unusual, nor dangerous. In addition, the preponderance of new research indicates that both the Roman and Medieval Periods were warmer.
An analysis of the IPCC's gold-standard global temperature dataset reveals long-term changes in global warming as less than predicted by the AGW hypothesis - the UK empirical evidence (HatCRUT3) confirms that human CO2 is producing a minimal to trivial effect relative to the UN's IPCC climate change scenarios
The adjacent chart plots 30-year changes in HadCRUT3 global temperature dataset, which is considered the gold-standard by the IPCC and the world's scientists.
The chart's starting point is January 1880, which represents the first data point (pink circle) of a 30-year temperature change, from January 1850 to January 1880. The chart's last plot point (green circle) is the difference from December 1982 to December 2012.
The black curve is the simple 5-year average (60-month moving) of all the 30-year changes. And the light grey curve is the plot of monthly CO2 atmospheric CO2 levels from 1880 through 2012.
Per this gold-standard empirical evidence, one can safely conclude the following:
#1. CO2 levels have consistently increased, with short pauses, over this extended period.
#2. 30-year temperature changes peaked both in 1939 and 1998, and then subsequently declined indicating a more powerful-than-CO2, non-greenhouse gas influence at work.
#3. Higher CO2 levels are not causing runaway, accelerating, rapid, irreversible, dangerous and/or tipping point long-term global temperature changes, which is contrary to all conventional and "consensus" IPCC expert opinions and their climate models.
#4. The simple 5-year moving average curve during the very recent past indicates a declining period for 30-year changes, possibly signalling an extended cooling phase is upon us.
#5. The 30-year temperature changes, prior to the post-1960 consumer/industrial surge in human CO2 emissions, rival those of the modern up/down 30-year changes, in terms of amount, duration and speed.
#6. Long-term (30 year) global temperature change appears to follow an up and down pattern - an oscillation phenomenon, so to speak, that occurs regardless of CO2 levels.
#7. Since this oscillation is not being produced by higher CO2 levels, then some natural phenomenon is likely driving long-term global temperature change, overwhelming the apparent trivial impact of CO2.
There are any number of natural climate phenomena working singularly, or in concert, that are responsible for climate change. An example of one such natural pattern is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) that is adjacent and shown here.
As can be seen, the AMO pattern is curiously similar to the above 30-year global temperature change plot of peaks and valleys.
As NOAA scientists have established, this powerful, climate-changing oscillation has been identified in historical paleoclimate proxies, confirming that human CO2 has nothing to do with it.
And the AMO is just one of many natural climate forces. Another powerful, natural climate-change phenomena that dwarfs the global warming impact of human CO2 is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which is best explained by this expert.
Green-sharia scientists in the pay of Big-Green constantly promote the idea that recent floods are the result of human-caused global warming and climate change - yet all empirical evidence and objective research proves that modern flooding is not increasing in terms of frequency and size
During 2012, parts of Spain experienced devastating floods. This terrible weather event was immediately claimed as more proof that climate change, due to global warming, is causing extreme violent disasters.
But are these "climate change" claims accurate, based on the latest scientific research or just more green-sharia propaganda?
Per the 2012 peer reviewed Spanish research of Barredo et al., the following was determined:
"..."the absence of a significant positive trend in the adjusted insured flood losses in Spain," which suggests, in their words, that "the increasing trend in the original losses is explained by socio-economic factors, such as the increases in exposed insured properties, value of exposed assets and insurance penetration." And they add that "there is no residual signal that remains after adjusting for these factors," so that "the analysis rules out a discernible influence of anthropogenic climate change on insured losses," which they say "is consistent with the lack of a positive trend in hydrologic floods in Spain in the last 40 years." [J. I. Barredo, D. Saurí, M. C. Llasat2012: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences]
Additional EU research that disproves the anti-CO2 propaganda of IPCC-related "scientists":
France - "...Wilhelm et al. (2012) say their study shows that "sediment sequences from high altitude lakes can provide reliable records of flood-frequency and intensity-patterns related to extreme precipitation events," closing with the warning that "such information is required to determine the possible impact of the current phase of global warming." And when this warning is heeded, it is clearly seen that the climate-model-inspired claim that global warming will lead to "an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of such events" - would appear to be just the opposite of what is suggested by Wilhelm et al.'s real-world study..."
Germany - "In light of these several observations -- plus the fact that "most decadal-scale climate-change impacts on flooding (Petrow and Merz, 2009) are small compared to historic peaks in flood occurrence (Mudelsee et al., 2006)" -- Bormann et al. (2011) conclude their report by stating that these significant facts "should be emphasized in the recent discussion on the effect of climate change on flooding." And if this is done, there is no other conclusion to be drawn but that the warming experienced in Germany over the past century has not led to unprecedented flooding throughout the country. In fact, it has not led to any increase in flooding."
United Kingdom - "As a result of this multifaceted endeavor, they (Macklin et al. (2005)) determined that "the majority of the largest and most widespread recorded floods in Great Britain [had] occurred during cool, moist periods," and that "comparison of the British Holocene palaeoflood series ... with climate reconstructions from tree-ring patterns of subfossil bog oaks in northwest Europe also suggests that a similar relationship between climate and flooding in Great Britain existed during the Holocene, with floods being more frequent and larger during relatively cold, wet periods."
"...they (Hannaford and Marsh (2008)) state that longer river flow records from five additional catchments they studied "provide little compelling evidence for long-term (>50 year) trends but show evidence of pronounced multi-decadal fluctuations." Lastly, they add that "in comparison with other indicators, there were fewer trends in flood magnitude," and that "trends in peaks-over-threshold frequency and extended-duration maxima at a gauging station were not necessarily associated with increasing annual maximum instantaneous flow."
Switzerland - "Reiterating the fact that "the findings of this study suggest that the frequency of extreme summer-autumn precipitation events (i.e. flood events) and the associated atmospheric pattern in the Eastern Swiss Alps was not enhanced during warmer (or drier) periods," Stewart et al. (2011) acknowledge that "evidence could not be found that summer-autumn floods would increase in the Eastern Swiss Alps in a warmer climate of the 21st century," in contrast to the projections of the regional climate models that have suggested otherwise."
Italy - "Diodato et al. (2008) undertook a detailed analysis of "the Calore River Basin (South Italy) erosive rainfall using data from 425-year-long series of both observations (1922-2004) and proxy-based reconstructions (1580-1921)." This work revealed pronounced inter-decadal variations...researchers write that "in recent years, climate change (generally assumed as synonymous with global warming) has become a global concern and is widely reported in the media." And with respect to the concern that both droughts and floods will become both more frequent and more severe as the planet warms, they say their study indicates that "climate in the Calore River Basin has been largely characterized by naturally occurring weather anomalies in past centuries (long before industrial CO2 emissions), not only in recent years," and that there has been a "relevant smoothing" of such events during the modern era."
Conclusions: Scientific charlatans associated with Big-Green organizations (or in the pay of) primarily rely on the real-world tragedies of severe weather events to push their anti-CO2, anti-job green agenda. Multiple EU studies disprove the green propaganda that climate change (i.e., global warming) is causing floods of greater frequency and size. The actual empirical evidence simply and clearly refutes the bogus green-sharia claims.
Additional severe-weather charts and listing of severe-weather events.