An analysis of satellite temperature dataset, through February 2014, identifies only two 5-year periods having significant warming and five periods that exhibit either zero warming or cooling.....the consensus experts' predicted reaction, by the climate, to a surge of human CO2 emissions is not supported by empirical evidence
(click on chart to enlarge)
The adjacent chart clearly depicts the lack of the predicted global warming since the decade of the 1990s.
Utilizing a straight-forward, empirical analysis of the RSS satellite temperature dataset reveals a rather tenuous (non-existent?) relationship between global atmospheric warming and CO2 emissions.
As the chart suggests, a brief global warming spike has morphed into an extended global cooling phase, which the consensus experts have identified as 'the mysterious global-warming hiatus'; plus being forced to trot-out a wild variety of excuses as to why their AGW predictions have failed.
Unfortunately, the GWNs, and their compatriots in the green climate-doomsday-is-near cult, continue to reject the actual scientific empirical evidence, such as the above chart.
Download datasets used to calculate the five-year change (starting base month is February 1979) of RSS atmospheric temperatures; cumulative CO2 emission tonnes, from 1979 through 2013. Don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy. Go here to learn how.
Proponents of the CAGW gloom and doom disaster scenarios often say that we need to "connect the dots" to understand how CO2 emissions are causing dangerous "accelerated" global warming.
Of course, these alarmists hope no one will actually "connect the dots," which is the almost guaranteed case for mainstream science journalists, TV pundits, politicians and Hollywood celebrities - those icons of mental laziness and politically correct thinking.
But what happens when one does actually connect-the-dots?
Well, the real world climate reality is then discovered: global warming has stalled and global cooling trends are appearing (see the UK and the US), confirmed by the scientific empirical evidence.
This adjacent chart for the global temperature trends (using the HC4 temperature dataset published by the UK's premier climate research agency) provides compelling evidence that human CO2 emissions are not producing disastrous global warming trends.
As the chart reveals, today's per century trends are dominated by cooling for the different time periods; today's trends are multiple times below prior period, historical highs; the 5, 8 and 10-year trends are definitely below the average modern trend (1950 through 2013); and all the trends are significantly less than those reached 15 years ago (see black dotted lines for year-end 1998 trend levels).
As an aside, in the future, as the 15-year trend moves further and further from the persistent temperature impacts of 1997 and 1998, it too will likely become a negative trend.
None of today's trends even approach the IPCC's predicted trend range of 2 to 6 degrees (C) per century that its "experts" and climate models told us long ago were being experienced (unfortunately, they mistook the natural climate's super El Niño's huge impact during 1997/98 as confirmation of CO2-induced warming).
As readily apparent, because of natural climate feedback forces, yesterday's over-hyped accelerated warming (eg, 1998) can quickly reverse course, delivering robust deceleration and even global cooling.
And that's what one learns from the empirical climate science when the "dots" are truly connected.
More of that connect-the-dot style of climate science reality: modern global and regional temperature charts.
Dataset used in Excel to calculate moving 5-year, 8-year, 10-year and 15-year per century trends (ie, slopes), chart column bars and line curve. Don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy. Go here to learn how.
Prior to the immense post-WWII consumer/industrial CO2 emissions, the world was warming, which peaked in the year 1944 (see chart).
The total pre-modern temperature increase to an identified peak (Sept. 1944) was +0.55°C, using the 12-month mean for year 1850 as the starting point.
Since the end of 1944 though, the modern era warming only added another +0.40°C on top of the 1944 peak, based on the high point for the rolling 12-month average, which was reached in mid-1998 (Aug. 1998).
With all the doom and gloom of global warming alarmism, this unexpected truth of modern global warming being less than the pre-modern era is an indicator that man-made catastrophe is not just around the corner. And this good news comes to us from the IPCC's own gold-standard for temperature observations - the UK's HadCRUT4 global dataset.
Also, the above chart of the 12-month means clearly shows a climate that moves from cooling to warming phases, and then back - a natural oscillation that 'catastrophic global warming' skeptics have long discussed, while being dismissed by the IPCC and its cohorts.
Keeping the observed oscillation in mind, the last significant warming ended with a peak in 1998 (the peak during 2010 was a very close second) and temperatures have since paused. Recently, this natural climate oscillation has been identified (by none other than the premier science journal Nature) as a potential cause of the 'Pause' that is generating such befuddlement for the "consensus" climate experts.
Not only has there been a very noticeable pause, since late 2001 there has been an actual cooling of global temperatures, which is noted on the chart with a light blue text box. As for the 12-month 2013 mean, it represents a slight temperature drop of -0.09°C since the 1998 peak (another case of those-stubborn-facts).
Understand, this chart does not explain the amount of any given warming/cooling that is due to either nature or humans, respectively. Nor does it tell us how long the 'Pause' will last or which direction temperatures will take after the stall. Some experts say temperatures will surely fall, while others claim that warming is hiding in the ocean deeps just waiting to climb out - your choice as to which view is correct.
The chart does suggest however that unpredictable temperature movements and climate change will happen regardless of CO2 levels and any human actions.
Finally, many CAGW alarmists predict that global temperatures will jump some 6 degrees by year 2100AD with a doubling of CO2. This chart's axes have been set to provide that context. Per the empirical history since 1850 and the recent global cooling, the 2100AD temp is much more likely to reflect the established +0.47°C per century trend...one thinks.
For those sharp-eyed readers, the chart title has slightly different temperature increase numbers than this article's text. The chart increases are based on the year-end that the peak temperatures took place; the increases used in the text are based on the actual month/year the 12-month mean peak happened.
Note: Excel was used to calculate the 12-month rolling means and plot the data. Used the HadCRUT4 dataset; the post-1958 CO2 dataset; and the pre-1958 CO2 dataset (divided annual ppm levels by 12). Don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy. Go here to learn how.
Poll after poll clearly indicates that Americans do not believe the Obama administration's anti-science claims (bogus?) regarding climate change and global warming.
Most Americans understand the day-to-day climate reality, thus they handily reject the climate hysteria and gutter-smears that both Obama and John Kerry feel compelled to utter.
As this accompanying chart reveals, global temperature change has decelerated and is now in negative (ie, global cooling) territory - the pink dot denotes current climate reality during the Obama administration.
This empirical evidence from the UK's climate research agency is the gold-standard, utilized by the UN's IPCC.
The red curve is a plot of 5-year "acceleration" (or lack thereof) presented as 5-year per century trend data-points (based on 60-month linear trends calculated for each month since 1850). The black plot represents a simple 10-year moving average of the 60-month data-points.
Why 5 years? Reality: The Obama administration has occupied the White House for the last 5 years.
What does the chart establish? Reality: Since a peak of warming "acceleration" during the second Bush administration, the short-term global warming trend has collapsed during Obama's term. Indeed, short-term global cooling is the current scientific fact.
How does the current short-term trend compare to previous administrations? Reality: During the modern era since 1950, Democrat administrations under Carter and Clinton reached the greatest warming accelerations (respectively, a 7.8°C/century trend during 1980 and a 8.4°C/century during 1998).
For comparisons sake, those 5-year acceleration peaks exceeding 5.0°C/century have been labeled on the chart with their respective White House occupants. And note, the greatest global warming short-term accelerations took place prior to 1950, plus being prior to the large influx of post-WWII consumer/industrial CO2 emissions.
When should a future president and the public become concerned about global warming caused climate change? Reality: When warming finally exceeds the unprecedented per century trend rate (11.5°C) previously reached during the Rutherford Hayes administration (1877-1881), for an extended period (say, 2 years as a minimum).
Again, the pink dot on the chart tells the climate science reality: Per the empirical evidence, the recent White House anti-science climate change comments are blatantly false, without any scientific merit, and are deserving of multiple Pinocchio badges.
More climate science reality: Those modern global and regional temperature charts that don't lie.
Dataset used in Excel to calculate 5-year slopes, 10-year averages and plots. Don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy. Go here to learn how. Source of Pinocchio image.
And now NOAA has just released their U.S. dataset update, which reveals that U.S. winters (November, December, January), over the last 20 years, have cooled at a -2.5°F per century rate. The adjacent NOAA/NCDC web site chart depicts that cooling trend.
As this NOAA dataset suggests, the reason for worse winter weather in the U.S. is likely a cooling climate change that has followed the previous modern warming - a natural climate response.
Again, 'those-stubborn-facts' that are so inconvenient for politicians.
The empirical evidence is indisputable and unequivocal.
The continental U.S. has been cooling (-6.5°F/century rate) over the last 15 years, per NOAA. This can no longer be denied by the scientific community and the politicians fanatically pushing the anti-science claim that dangerous and rapid global warming is taking place, due to human CO2 emissions.
This chart plots the most recent monthly U.S. temperatures through January 2014, including the simple 36-month moving average of CO2 atmospheric levels over the last 180 months.
While "global warming" activists/proponents focus on superficial, short-term cherry-picks of the "hottest ________" (just fill in the blank with 'day', 'week', 'month', 'quarter', 'year', etc. to mimic a typical fanatic's cherry-picking spiel), those stubborn climate facts, which are critical, remain simple: the entire globe has experienced a long warming 'pause' and America's climate has been on a cooling trend over that same time span.
Scientists are unable to explain this 'standstill' using the "consensus" AGW hypothesis, and any discussions of the 'inconvenient' U.S. cooling trend are entirely avoided by politicians, climate agency scientists/bureaucrats and other warming advocates.
The observed current U.S. cooling trend is not a prediction, but it does indicate that the continental landmass is affected by powerful, non-CO2 greenhouse gas factors that may continue for the near future.
Note: Chart's linear trend is calculated using monthly absolute temperature values. If using anomalies instead, based on monthly averages from 1901 to 2000 base period, the per century cooling trend is -2.4°F.
Datasets used to create Excel charts, averages, trends and etc. Don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy. Go here to learn how.
The HadCRUT4 global temperature dataset for 2013 was just published. On review of the released annual temperature averages that the UK experts calculated, the calendar year 2013 global temp was cooler than the 1998 mark.
So, during that 15 years of massive human CO2 emissions, the fearsome "runaway" warming was not so much. In fact, after the spewing of some 450 gigatons of fossil fuel emissions the temperature needle hasn't budged, it's actually lower in 2013.
The UK's findings match what other climate experts have found and are now debating the cause. This 'Pause' (aka 'The Hiatus') in global warming has even been noted in Congressional testimony as a matter of official record.
"The biggest mystery in climate science today may have begun, unbeknownst to anybody at the time, with a subtle weakening of the tropical trade winds blowing across the Pacific Ocean in late 1997...Average global temperatures hit a record high in 1998 — and then the warming stalled....But the pause has persisted, sparking a minor crisis of confidence in the field. Although there have been jumps and dips, average atmospheric temperatures have risen little since 1998, in seeming defiance of projections of climate models and the ever-increasing emissions of greenhouse gases."
Corn Belt Temperatures & Map (click on each to enlarge)
It was noted previously that the continental U.S. has been cooling over the last 16 years, at a rate of minus 3.8°F per century rate. This was not predicted by any U.S. climate scientist, nor by NOAA, nor by NASA and certainly not by the political technocrats at the UN's IPCC.
As the NOAA/NCDC climate record reveals, the breadbasket areas of American have been cooling for a longer period - 17 years. The above images reflect the empirical evidence for the primary U.S. corn growing areas., which is cooling at a minus 4.0°F/century rate.
The other major 3 crop regions all show similar type of cooling rates over the last 17 years ending 2013. (see: soybean temperatures, map; spring wheat temperatures, map; and winter wheat temperatures, map)
If this cooling trend were to continue, it would spell disaster for the world's hungry. Let's hope 'the pause' in global warming does not last much longer since it unfortunately seems to project a cooling regime over the U.S.
Central England Temperatures (click images to enlarge)
Recent mainstream press articles, plus those on the blogosphere, indicate a growing concern for a soon-to-come global cooling period, that some are even referring to as a potential mini-ice age. This sudden turn of events is entirely counter to all the "expert" consensus and IPCC predictions that claimed runaway global warming was civilization's greatest threat.
The impetus for the new publicized fears of cooling comes from the indisputable empirical evidence that global warming is suffering a non-predicted 'hiatus' (i.e. warming is stalled, paused, stopped, etc.) these last 15+ years. Combine that pause with the additional empirical evidence of solar activity being at a minimum and major ocean oscillations being in non-warming phases and that combo spells t-r-o-u-b-l-e.
One region of the world that may already be experiencing the impacts of a global cooling phase is The Midlands of central England.
The above charts are plots of the Central England (CE) Temperature record. The left chart plots the annual dataset (light green) back to inception, 1659AD. The maroon curve is a simple 25-year average of the annual temperatures. The chart also includes a plot of a 25-year average of annual CO2 atmospheric levels.
Obviously, the CE region has had a high degree of climate temperature variability over the records 355 years, coupled with an observed warming trend generated with the rebounding from the depths of the Little Ice Age (LIA).
Starting in the early 1700s, there are signs the warning rebound was beginning, but it wasn't until the late 1800's that one can discern a strong post-LIA warming trend that ushers in the modern era. This positive spike of temperatures was well before the huge CO2 consumer/industrial emissions of the late 20th century.
Actually, using the 25-year moving average curve, one can see 3 distinct periods of recovery from the LIA. By the end of 2013, the 25-year average appears to reach its peak - the "warmest" ever.
However, by zooming in on the last 25 years since 1988 a different story is told - a climate cooling story.
The chart on the right is a plot of CE temperatures since 1988 - yes, the same year that climate scientists warned us that we were at global warming's death door. The chart's red and grey curves are 3-year averages and a linear trend line has been added (dark green).
Clearly, as this plot of modern temperatures reveals, for 25 years the CE region has had a slight cooling trend. This trend would produce an overall cooling of +0.53°C by 2100AD, if it were to monotonously continue (it won't). Adding to the consensus "expert" woes, any observed relationship between temperatures and CO2 levels is non-existent, if not a negative correlation over the last 2.5 decades.
If huge emissions of CO2 are not driving temperature increases, then the apparent cooling must be a function of more powerful forces, such as described in this latest peer-reviewed study. With that said, all empirical evidence points to the fact that climate science remains unsettled and that the CO2-centric CAGW hypothesis is essentially without clothes.
Since the significant global impact of the 1997-98 Super El Nino, the overall U.S. has experienced a 16-year cooling trend of -3.8°F per century.
Lengthy cooling trends are also seen at the 14, 12, 10 and 8 year marks for the continental U.S.
(Side bar: NOAA calculates the 2-year per century cooling trend at a -293°F, yet they calculate a 6-year warming trend at +26.9°F. How's this? Well, both calculations are impacted immensely by the outlier hot year of 2012. These two calculated figures represent a cautionary tale to using trends less than 10 years, and that no trend ever represents a prediction.)
The above map (click on to enlarge) depicts temperature trends for each state within the continental U.S., since the Super El Niño years - the last 16 years.
As clearly shown, the vast majority of states (77%) have experienced a long-term cooling. The huge global emissions of CO2 has not produced any global warming across a great swath of America.
A suggestion: The GOP/Republican politicians in Washington wanting to address the Democrats' climate change hysteria may want to laser focus their attentions on those states that are the warming exceptions. For these 11 states, it would be of scientific benefit to understand how they managed to be such extreme "warming" exceptions - a detailed, objective, 3rd party forensic audit of the temperature dataset for each warming state would seem to be in order, at a minimum.
Source of temperature trends. Additional regional temperature charts/maps.
If human CO2 causes indisputable, relentless, unequivocal, unprecedented, accelerating and tipping point catastrophic global warming, then why is the U.S. cooling over the last 15 years?
Indeed, the "experts" have been unable to scientifically explain why there has been a 'hiatus' or 'pause' in global warning, let alone the cooling trends experienced in various parts of the world. That doesn't mean the scientists are not speculating as hard as possible as to why - so far, they have conjured up 7 reasons they never mentioned prior to the global warming going AWOL.
When a rational, believable and testable hypothesis finally does arrive maybe it will be able to explain the decadal temperature changes the U.S. has experienced since 1895.
The above chart plots the NOAA/NCDC U.S. dataset decade-end temperature changes, including the change over the 10-year period ending 2013. Stating the perfectly obvious, the infamous consensus experts' "unequivocal" warming is anything but. In spite of massive human CO2 emissions, a recent state of cooling changes dominate in the U.S. (see last two blue columns).
Another interesting point that the chart reveals is that the largest decadal temperature increase did not occur during the modern late 20th century, or 21st century for that matter. The biggest increase took place during the decade of the 1930s.
The chart also has a plot of new human CO2 emissions for each decade. For example, the decades ending 1999 and 2009 had new emission totals of 234 billion tons and 286 billion tons, respectively. (Note: The early decades were estimated using CO2 information from here; for years 1965 and later, CO2 emissions are from this source.)
Unfortunately for the climate science consensus experts, this latest release of NOAA temperature data confirms that they are essentially clueless when it comes to predicting regional and global temperature changes. Likewise, it also confirms that one of the scientists' favorite concepts - that human CO2 emissions are similar to a world "control knob" or thermostat for climate temperatures - is simply idiotic, not even plausible.
Finally, this additional empirical evidence firms up the growing belief that the CO2-centric AGW hypothesis is an anachronism, now deserving to be placed on the ash heap of failed pop-culture science. Maybe it will still fly on cable's Discovery Channel but in the realm of hard-truth scientific endeavors it's a failed religion.
As shown, the actual number of 2013 fire incidents is close to matching a historic low of the available dataset and represents a 60% reduction from the 30-year average ending in 1999.
Regarding total acres burnt in 2013 (YTD - Dec. 2013), the 4+ million acres is well below the 5-year moving average but remains higher than the 30-year simple average ending 1999. To put the year's 4+ million into context, a single Colorado fire in 1898 raged across 4 counties (10,088 square miles) representing some 6.4 million acres.
On the chart is a dashed black line indicating the year 1998. As the dataset reveals, the total yearly acres burnt started a continuous climb after 1997, peaking in 2006. Every year since 1998 has seen total acres consumed by fire exceeding the 30-year average ending in 1999.
Was this increase in total acres burnt due to the modern global warming affecting the U.S.?
The actual temperature data indicates the opposite. Since 1998, the U.S. temperature trend has been a negative 3.2F degrees/century - yes, that is a minus trend covering the 16-year period from December 1997 through November 2013. And as this recent article about Alaska's cooling since the turn of the century confirms, its forest fires have not been a result of 21st century "global warming."
In contrast, the U.S. did have a significant warming trend from the span of 1970 to 1997. The huge number of forest fire incidents during the late 1970s and early 1980s is clearly evident in the above chart. What is also clearly evident is that Republican President Ronald Reagan was able to mitigate with dispatch the awful malaise of the previous Democrat administration's (President Jimmy Carter) forest fires. ;-)
This top plot of satellite global temperatures is scientifically unequivocal (click on to enlarge):
The actual empirical evidence from state-of-the-art measurement technology reveals a global warming spike during the late 1990's (due to the Super El Nino), but after that, essentially zilch.
Thus, for the last 20 years (240 months) the global warming trend of +0.52°C by 2100AD is 'climate insignificant' - a trend that climate scientists certainly don't get excited about.
And when one examines the last 17-years, the satellite global temperature trend becomes slightly less than zero (i.e. global cooling). As a prominent climate alarmist scientist determined recently in a peer reviewed paper:
“There is a lot of noise in the climate system and it is quite possible that the noise can mask the effects of man-made carbon dioxide for a period of time. However if the slope is zero for 17 years, then we cannot blame noise any more but we have to face the facts that we humans do not affect the climate to any great extent.”
The bottom plot of global temperatures confirms the atrocious climate predictions of the IPCC "expert" climate models. This is irrefutable evidence that the consensus climate models can't predict squat and should not be relied upon by policymakers.
Finally, it is well established that Obama and his administration are serial pathological liars (sounds harsh but it is undeniable). This is not only true in the health care and Obamacare policy arena, but is also a common denominator in their climate change alarmist claims.
The irrefutable, unequivocal, non-global warming trend continues.
As these graphs reveal, the latest NOAA temperature dataset, through August 31, 2013, confirms that the U.S. and its major crop regions are experiencing a cooling trend. (click on graphs to enlarge)
Note, this has taken place despite the largest 15-year production of human CO2 emissions, ever. Contrary to every single IPCC and U.S. climate model.
Update clarification: The above plots from the NOAA web site are based on moving 12-month periods ending in August (each 12-month period starts with a year's September temperature and ends with the following year's August temperature).
It has been noted by others that the MSNBC news outlet and the OFA (Occupy / Obamaites) crowd are not the sharpest knives in the drawer, so to speak.
Fighting climate change, supposedly due to global warming / cooling / warming, is an idiot's Don Quixote obsession, especially since climate change is constantly happening, naturally.
And as this actual result happened at the MSNBC/OFA event, it provides proof that the public is a lot smarter than the activists.....my god, Chris Matthews et al. are truly pathetic, no?
Honestly, it just makes you wonder if MSNBC personnel are stupendously stupid or pathological liars or just need to fanatically obsessively agree with Obama despite the current climate reality - cooling.
The latest IPCC climate "expert" hypothesis that global warming causes everything, including the recent global cooling, has been verified by NOAA's up-to-date temperature dataset - through March 2013, it would definitely appear that the previous 15-year global warming caused the subsequent 180-month global cooling while atmospheric CO2 levels still remained completely irrelevant
Note: Above chart uses the NCDC global dataset published through March 2013. The left two columns (CO2 & temperature) represent the 15 years (180 months) ending March 1998, the right two columns represent the 15 years ending March 2013.
While left-leaning U.S. politicians, bureaucrats and the partisan mainstream press continue to push the silly catastrophic AGW hysteria from human CO2 emissions, a significant cooling trend (per NOAA) across a critically important global breadbasket continues - if the latest 15-year global cooling trend persists, crop yields will suffer immensely
As has been well documented, global warming has gone AWOL and in some regions of the world, global cooling trends have materialized, which scientists across the world are starting to express concern with.
In the key crop regions of the U.S., there has been an extended cooling trend that persists despite the immense human CO2 emissions released over the last two decades. The above four NOAA charts depict those cooling trends across the a wide swath of American agricultural production. These charts represent the main American corn, soybean, spring and winter wheat growing areas.
What the huge U.S. breadbasket needs at this point is a few years of some good old fashioned global warming that will reverse the potential devastation a mass cooling would deliver to crop yields.
Unfortunately, though, it appears nature is not delivering what the American farmers and ranchers need this spring.
100% of climate scientists now agree that accelerating global warming has robustly stalled- the IPCC's gold-standard UK HadCRUT global temperature dataset confirms what skeptical scientists have long publicly discussed
There no longer is any serious debate of the non-existence of dangerous, accelerating global warming from human CO2 emissions - literally, from all current climate empirical evidence, it does not exist.
In the scientific real world though, there is an abundance of peer reviewed, solid scientific evidence pointing conclusively to a future of both moderate temperature and climate change.
As the above chart reveals, atmospheric CO2 levels have constantly increased since 1990 - see recent CO2 charts here.
In contrast, the IPCC's gold-standard global dataset (above chart) confirms temperatures have stalled since 1998 - actually, they have slightly cooled at a -0.08 degrees/century trend.
The chart's solid blue curve is a simple three year moving average of non-scary global temperature change that current political elites conveniently ignores and the MSM refuses to report.
Current global temperatures are significantly below NASA's climate model and "expert" predictions - note the dotted red line on chart.
All the major climate agency computer models, based on human CO2 emissions, have failed spectacularly.
Modern weather disasters (e.g., blizzards, tropical storms, etc.) portrayed by political elites and MSM "reporters" as caused by "climate change" are the exactly the same bad weather disasters that took place during earlier periods of low atmospheric CO2.
The United Nations IPCC climate agency has a gold-standard dataset used since 2007 to make global climate predictions - the HadCRUT3 gold-standard confirms that the predicted dangerous global warming is non-existent, and unequivocally, that CO2 is not the world's thermostat
Taxpayer-funded climate scientists and ideologue politicians have continuously predicted that the globe will suffer from dangerous global warming; and they claimed that human CO2 emissions acted as the world's climate thermostat.
As the adjacent chart reveals, the IPCC's own temperature gold-standard (HadCRUT3) refutes the "experts" and "elites" hysterical, anti-science prognostications:
#1. The global temperature dataset clearly indicates that the world has exhibited a slight global cooling trend since the spike in temps from the super El Niño of 1997/98. That's 180 months (15 years) of non-dangerous global warming.
#2. The chart's thin black line is a plot of the monthly changes in CO2 levels. The correlation between monthly temperature and CO2 changes ranges from slim to none - this supposed thermostat relation of CO2 to temperatures has a ludicrously low R2 of 0.01. CO2 is not only not a "thermostat," it's likely not even a major climate forcing, per the actual data.
#3. While global temperatures have been slightly cooling, the global changes in monthly CO2 levels have been slightly increasing (note smooth grey curve - a 2nd order fit).
#4. Simply stated, this actual IPCC gold-standard empirical evidence robustly refutes all the anti-science predictions/claims of climate "experts" and alarmist "elites."
And, as we are currently witnessing, the green-sharia, anti-human fanatics are now having to do some serious crawling-back from their previous anti-CO2 agenda and bogus-science blinders to the climate reality.
Taxpayers have spent billions on CO2-driven climate model "science," which the empirical evidence now suggests was like pouring money down a rat-hole....the abysmal prediction failure of CO2-centric models is simply fact - are there actual scientific models that can replace this current wasteland of biased AGW climate research?
As major mainstreamnewsoutlets are starting to report, global warming has essentially disappeared, replaced with a slight cooling trend in recent years. Taxpayer-funded climate scientists are finally being forced to go on record stating the obvious - their global warming predictions were incorrect.
Their favorite euphemism to describe what is happening is that global warming is at a "standstill." Even the most infamous climate reality denier has started using that terminology to describe a decade of non-existent warming - he can't quite yet bring himself to say global cooling.
Three of the above charts (top-left, top-right and bottom-left) represent the state-of-the-art models used by the "consensus" climate experts. As seen, all three have been spectacularly wrong through the end of 2012.
These three models (World Climate Research Programme, NASA-GISS and the IPCC) are CO2-centric climate models - global warming and climate change are primarily driven by levels of atmospheric CO2. As a result, they have long predicted dangerous and accelerating global warming for Earth's atmosphere, oceans and land surfaces - and it bears repeating, they have been spectacularly wrong.
The majority of scientists now agree that these "consensus" science models are flawed (at least 97% of scientists would agree ;-) and are incapable of accurately predicting global temperatures. Thus, newer models based on non-CO2 drivers of climate are starting to see the light of day, so-to-speak.
One such newer model is represented by the bottom-right chart above. This model appears to have better global temperature prediction capabilities, which also happens to verify that CO2 is not the principal climate driver, as scientists on the taxpayer dole claim (and misrepresent).
The UK's HadCRUT3 global temperature dataset has been the IPCC's gold-standard for its political-agenda "science" reports - unfortunately for the IPCC, the HadCRUT dataset also confirms the disappearance of global warming, replaced by a very slight cooling trend
It is estimated some 440 gigtons of human CO2 emissions have been produced over the last 15 years, in contrast to the estimated 330+ tons during the previous 15-year period ending 1997.
Further, it was estimated by the consensus "experts" that a large increase in human emissions over the last 15 years would bring the world hellish warming. It has not happened.
The climate scientists and their associated climate agencies were immensely wrong, as the adjacent chart indicates.
As can be seen, over the first 15-period, prior to 1998, there was a strong warming trend (+1.4 degrees per century). As a result, the experts said human CO2 was the cause. They then emphatically predicted that this warming trend would continue and even accelerate. But it didn't - instead it decelerated.
As the chart depicts, the last 15 years ending 2012 has seen a very slight decline in temperatures, wiping out the strong positive warming trend completely. This small cooling trend in surface temperatures is also supported by the satellite observations of the atmosphere. The global warming was wiped out even though total human CO2 emmisions were a third larger - 110 billion tons more than prior 15-year span.
This empirical evidence has become so convincing that the cooling deniers are even starting to eat that awful tasting, proverbial crow (here and here).
In the meantime, they debate amongst themselves about how befuddled they are concerning the lack of warming, obviously confirming what skeptics knew all the time - their bizarre anti-CO2 phobia and rigid consensus constraints have long blinded them to scientific truth.
Long-term climate change is represented by 30-year changes in a climate variable, one being temperature change...whether 30-year temperature change is due to humans (ie, human CO2) can be ascertained readily by examining the changes in the NASA's global temperature dataset
The adjacent chart is not one likely to be publicized by the green-sharia scientists at NASA's GISS; nor will "journalists" at the NY Times and Washington Post report on it. To do so would make them apostates to the anti-CO2 religion jihad.
Regardless, the empirical temperature observations that NASA documents clearly indicates that the monotonous increase in atmospheric CO2 levels have had little impact on long-term (30 years) temperature change.
As the chart depicts, 30-year temperature changes resemble a sine wave (oscillation) that has nothing to do with human CO2 - instead, that sine wave pattern is natural, and easily overwhelms any CO2 impact.
Since the "consensus" global warming has disappeared "unexpectedly," how long before the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and other green-sharia outlets start claiming that recent global cooling is the result of human CO2 emissions?
(click on image to enlarge)
As documented by previous temperature charts, the global atmospheric temperatures have been on a declining trend over the last 15 years. The adjacent chart depicts similar results with a change: instead of CO2 levels (ppm), this chart shows the recent human CO2 emissions in gigatons.
Since 1983 (30 years), there have been two distinct phases of global temperatures.
On the right side of this chart, the last 15 years had human CO2 emissions released into the atmosphere increasing by over 100 billion tons. However, instead of an acceleration of the predicted atmospheric warming, the prior 15-year trend was reversed - a new global cooling trend was established.
This is clear empirical evidence of the spectacularly wrong prediction by the environmental organizations' green-sharia "experts" and the IPCC's "scientists."
1. Human CO2 emissions are not a global temperature "thermostat"
2. The current AGW hypothesis is severely weak, at best
3. Any regional/local surface warming experienced is obviously not a result of the actual cooling global atmosphere...thus, must be due to other factors (hmmm....fabrication of warming temperatures anyone?)
4. Billions to trillions have been wasted by governments, industries and consumers to avert a predicted, slam-dunk warming from a failed greens' hypothesis
5. If this global atmospheric cooling trend persists much longer, the greens and the MSM "journalists" will pirouette 180 degrees and claim human CO2 causes cooling (and climate change)
The 2012 year-end satellite measurements continue to be cruel to the IPCC's green-sharia scientists - this UN agency has long predicted huge atmospheric global warming from CO2 emissions .....yet in reality, global cooling currently dominates
(click on images to enlarge)
The above chart is the plot (Figure 1) of satellite atmospheric temperature measurements provided by RSS, plus CO2 measurements from NOAA (data sources).
Clearly, as CO2 levels have monotonously increased over the last 17-years (why 17?), global temperatures have not increased with any significance. By year 2100, this "warming" trend would produce a projected increase of one-third of a single degree - rather insignificant and hardly noticeable.
The UN's IPCC's catastrophic global warming (CAGW) hypothesis, which the vast majority of empirical-based scientists now reject, demands that ever increasing atmospheric CO2 levels cause the atmosphere to rapidly warm. This accelerated, man-made atmosphere warming would then significantly warm the globe's oceans and land surfaces, quickly making Earth inhospitable from incredibly high temperatures and horrific climate change disasters.
Contrary to the United Nation's "science" though, global temperatures have morphed over the last 30 years from a warming trend to a cooling trend despite the huge increase in CO2 levels.
This next set of temperature plots (Figures 2, 3, 4 and 5) depict the global atmosphere temperatures and CO2 levels over four different time periods. These plots, plus the 17-year chart, formulate an empirical reality that refutes the UN's non-empirical CAGW hypothesis:
1. Atmospheric CO2 levels have increased relentlessly over the last 30 years
2. For all time periods, the average atmospheric CO2 levels have exceeded the supposedly "safe" 350 parts-per-million (ppm)
3. As figure #2 shows, there is a modest global warming trend evident over 30 years
4. Figure #2 also reveals that most of the global warming took place prior to 1999
5. Since 2003 1993, the 20-year plot (figure #3) has a smaller warming trend - less than 1.0 degree by year 2100
6. The 15-year and 10-year charts (figures #4 and 5) have no warming trend, proving that a very slight atmospheric global cooling has dominated since the late 20th century
7. 2012 global temperatures are well below previous highs over the last 30 years.
8. The 17-year plot (figure #1), which is favored by some CAGW scientists, confirms that global atmospheric warming has been robustly insignificant, contrary to their own predictions
Conclusions: Per the actual satellite empirical evidence, global atmospheric temperatures have been cooling over the last 15 years despite the IPCC "consensus" predictions that global warming would have to be produced if CO2 levels exceeded the 350 ppm level. Global cooling has now dominated for a significantly extended period, which demonstrably proves that CO2 is not a "global thermostat" as claimed by many of the UN's green-sharia scientists. (Note: linear trend representations are not predictions.)
Likewise, claims that global warming is "rapid," "accelerating," "irrefutable," "unprecedented," "incontrovertible," and/or "irreversible" are outright known falsehoods.
Finally, any journalist, scientist, politician or bureaucrat using such terminology to describe global temperatures is an unequivocal liar - that is the simple, empirical truth.
The HadCRUT global temperature dataset (Sept. 2012) was recently published - this is the dataset used in the most recent IPCC report and it currently shows that global warming from CO2 emissions is essentially non-existent
(click on image to enlarge)
Over the last 180 months (15 years) the atmospheric CO2 levels have continued to increase at a rapid pace, but the globe (land and ocean) has cooled during that same time.
For the 15-year period ending September 30, 2012, the world experienced a very slight cooling trend of -0.12°C per century.
In contrast, for the 15-year period ending September 1997, the globe was warming at a +1.18°C pace.
The IPCC predicted that global warming would result from increased atmospheric CO2 levels - however, since the beginning of the 1997 Super El Nino, global cooling has been the result
(click on image to enlarge)
The RSS satellite global temperature measurements indicate that the 1997-98 Super El Niño started from the low of April 1997. From that point, and all the way through July 2012, the global atmosphere has cooled - a total of 184 months. This cooling trend took place during a significant increase of atmospheric CO2 levels.
This slight cooling trend is opposite of what the IPCC (and NASA's James Hansen) predicted for global temperatures.
The IPCC prediction of rapid global warming is based on the hypothesis that human CO2 emissions would increase atmospheric CO2 greenhouse gas levels; the increase of greenhouse gases would allow more radiated heat to be retained; the retained heat would warm the atmosphere; and, the atmosphere would then warm the world's oceans and land surfaces. Such predicted warming would set in motion a "runaway tipping point" that would produce catastrophic climate disasters and a doomsday for civilization.
Instead, as the adjacent chart indicates, the lower atmosphere since 1997 (per the RSS satellite measurements) has actually been exhibiting a cooling trend, versus the the obvious warming trend for the January 1980 to April 1997 period (red curve on chart).
Like the RSS dataset, the HadCRUT global temperatures also exhibit almost the same warming/cooling dichotomy. What is very apparent in both datasets is that the '97-98 Super El Niño shifted temperatures up to a new level, which then global temperatures resumed their normal variation around. Subsequent to this temperature range shift, growing CO2 emissions have not caused the long predicted "global warming."
#1. Satellite measurements reveal both a modest global warming and very slight global cooling period since 1980.
#2. Levels of atmospheric CO2 appear to have no consistent influence on global temperatures since 1980.
#3. Global warming is not "irrefutable," "unequivocal," "rapidly increasing," "accelerating," "incontrovertible," "indisputable," "unquestionable" nor "unprecedented." It's quite the opposite of all these qualifiers.
#4. Any IPCC scientist, climate researcher, academic, government bureaucrat, journalist and pundit who states and/or implies that any 'qualifier' in point #3 is the 'truth,' is, quite honestly, a serious liar. The empirical evidence is the scientific truth, not a person's blatant verbal misrepresentation.
#5. Politicians and celebrities who state and/or imply that any 'qualifier' in point #3 is the 'truth' is at best, stuck-on-stupid. Unfortunately, that seems to be the dominating characteristic of individuals involved in the political, sports and entertainment worlds. (Although, with politicians it may not be the case of being stupid, instead it may be more of a case of being criminally corrupt in order to enrich himself via "green" projects - think Solyndra.)
#6. As the satellite data show, the hot summer in the U.S. was not a result of global warming (as suggested by many covered by points #5 and #6) since global atmospheric temperatures during May, June and July were not extreme nor unusual.
A high climate sensitivity to growing human CO2 emissions is absolutely essential to the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW or AGW) hypothesis - the climate empirical evidence refutes the high sensitivity claim though
(click image to enlarge)
In climate science reality, the actual global temperature observations over the last 15 years do not support the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) hypothesis.
Central to the CAGW hypothesis is that increasing human CO2 emissions will raise atmospheric levels of this greenhouse gas. Subsequent to the atmospheric CO2 increase, global warming will automatically and consistently increase.
Once the globe starts warming, the AGW hypothesis states that a high climate sensitivity to CO2 will initiate a dangerous positive feedback loop: the rising temperatures will increase water evaporation; the powerful atmospheric greenhouse gas water vapor will then increase; then global temperatures will increase even more, the melting of ice sheets occurs; thus, less solar energy will be reflected into space; and global temperatures will then increase even more; and etc., etc.
This powerful and relentless positive feedback loop will produce unequivocal, robust, significant, unprecedented, irrefutable, rapid and accelerating global warming. At least that is what every "expert" climate model based on the CAGW hypothesis predicted.
But did the above prediction/scenario/forecast happen? Nope, not even close. In fact, the opposite happened.
The adjacent chart depicts the last 30 years of increasing CO2 levels and global temperature trends. This actual climate evidence is sliced into two time periods: the 15 years ending July 1997 and the 15 years ending July 2012. The real world evidence reveals the following:
1. The far right column (grey) shows that CO2 levels were increasing at a 147 ppm per century rate by the end of July 1997. Actual CO2 levels were at the 364 ppm mark.
2. For the 15 years ending 1997, global temperatures were increasing at +1.08°C per century trend (red column).
3. Since July 1997, the growth of CO2 levels has increased to a 197 ppm per century trend, and now stands at the 395 ppm mark.
4. After 30 years of increasing human CO2 emissions and faster growing atmospheric CO2 levels, the last 15 years have witnessed the previous global warming morph into a global cooling tend (blue column) at a -0.24°C per century trend.
Conclusions: The climate scientist and climate models that have long predicted catastrophic global warming from CO2 emissions are proven to be undeniably incorrect. The AGW hypothesis does not reflect climate reality. The actual empirical evidence proves the CAGW hypothesis to be irretrievably wrong. The climate sensitivity to CO2 levels is, at best, tiny. The natural forces of the climate will produce negative feedbacks that completely overwhelm the hypothetical CAGW positive feedback loop. Thus, while CO2 emissions will likely induce a slight warming, the natural climatic forces will dictate and dominate our climate future.
Finally, any "science" association, journalist, politician, celebrity, weatherperson, bureaucrat and pundit who says that dangerous global warming is happening, is unequivocal, is rapid, is irrefutable, is unprecedented, is robust, is significant and is accelerating can only be one thing: he or she is a pathological liar.
HadCRUT is the IPCC's gold-standard for measuring global temperatures - over last 15 years (180 months) the globe has cooled with a -0.24C per century trend, not warmed as predicted
(click image to enlarge)
HadCRUT released their latest global temperature dataset today, which confirmed what both NOAA and NASA reported earlier this month - that global temps declined during July 2012.
In addition, the plot of the HadCRUT and CO2 data for the last 15 years, through July 2012, is very revealing.
Contrary to what the mainstream press reports and exaggerates about
"global warming," the world has actually been in a stable-to-cooling
phase since the El Nino temperature spike of 1997/98.
Of course, if the NYTimes or WAPO or CNN or CBS or the AP were ever to report the actual cooling trend over the last 15 years (despite the massive amounts of human CO2 emissions) this would establish that they have been grossly misleading the public for years about consensus "global warming."
And as the press fully realize, the public that primarily relies on traditional media outlets are extremely gullible with little intellectual curiosity. Thus the media gets away with hysterical fear-mongering, half-truths and deceptions.
Conclusion: Long story short - human CO2 emissions are not causing rapid, accelerating global warming, per the IPCC's favored HadCRUT temperature dataset. Over the last 15 years, global temperatures have been relatively stable, with a slight global cooling trend being exhibited. All the IPCC's and NOAA's climate experts, their climate models and the professional doomsayers have been absolutely wrong about their catastrophic climate predictions, for over a decade now - and not a single mainstream press outlet reports this. Solid advice to gullible: don't believe anything the mainstream press outlets "report."
The latest HadCRUT global temperatures indicate a modern global cooling regime has been in place over the last 15 years - in addition, many world regions have experienced weather events that corroborate a global cooling phase
Despite the protestations of the climate doomsday scientists and their faithful cohorts (mindless parrots?) in the mainstream press, the extremely hot weather, in parts of the U.S., is an exception.
(And, btw, the current heat wave and severe weather in the U.S. is not unusual - hmmm...if only the lazy MSM doomsday parrots reporters would get off their fat keisters, eh...)
Across the globe, reports of colder temperatures and cold inclement weather abound, which the large MSM outlets in the U.S. have failed to report. Because of the extreme one-sided reporting of the hot summer (ie, "global warming") in the U.S., most Americans remain ignorant of significant weather and climatic conditions across the world. This level of global ignorance is highly correlated to the god-awful, biased reporting done by the Seth Borensteins of the world.
Below are recent examples of conditions that prevail outside America's Midwest and East Coast areas that major U.S. media/press outlets won't mention:
The UK's HadCRUT global temperature dataset indicates a global cooling trend of -0.2°C/century over last 15 years, plus May 2012 was slightly cooler - the global warming science facts, per the IPCC's own gold-standard
(click on image to enlarge)
While much of the U.S. has been doing a slow roast over the last few months, other parts of the world are cooling. So much so that in the aggregate the global mean temperature slightly fell during May 2012.
As the adjacent chart indicates, over the last 180 months (15 years) global temperatures have been on a cooling trend. This trend persists despite the increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 and at least two powerful El Niño's since 1997.
There is not a single global climate model that predicted this stable/cooling trend. All models predicted "accelerating" global warming because of their singular dependance on levels of atmospheric CO2.
As can be observed and surmised, clearly there are other forces are driving the IPCC-HadCRUT global temperatures other than CO2. The global warming science facts do not support the speculations of climate doomsday alarmists.
The global warming science facts continue to robustly challenge the "consensus" global warming hypothesis - despite prodigious amounts of CO2 emissions, a global cooling trend exists
(click on image to enlarge)
Here is the typical plot of the impact of CO2 emissions on global temperatures. As a change in pace, a different depiction of "global warming" is adjacent.
The left side of this chart reveals the current 15-yr per century global temperature change trend (-0.12 degree), as of April 2012 - the blue bar near the bottom. The grey bar represents the massive amount of human CO2 emissions released into the atmosphere over the last 15 calendar years.
In contrast, for the previous 15 years ending April 1997, the red bar represents the per century temperature change trend (+1.08 degree) and partially hidden grey bar the total human CO2 emissions released during the calendar year span of 1982 - 1996.
The data portrayed in this chart, when combined, represents the last 30 years (360 consecutive months, starting May 1982 and ending April 2012) of human CO2 emissions and global temperature change.
Conclusions: The global warming science facts do not support the IPCC's catastrophic AGW hypothesis that is continuously promulgated by bureaucrats and paid-off scientists. A global cooling trend has developed despite the IPCC's climate model predictions and the immense human CO2 emissions over the last 15 years (a 1.7 times increase over the 15-yr period ending in 1996) . Catastrophic, dangerous, unequivocal, accelerating and unprecedented global warming are non-existent as of April 2012. In summary, the data strongly and irrefutably suggest that human CO2 emissions are not a powerful greenhouse gas and that, instead, natural climate forces are the likely primary drivers of global temperature changes.
The fanatical green, anti-CO2 activist Bill McKibben has urged everyone to 'connect the dots' - so be it - HadCRUT researchers did just that and confirmed that global warming morphed to global cooling despite huge increases in human CO2 emissions
(click on image to enlarge)
It's the last day of April 2012 and Phil Jones just released the March global temperature information. This latest update confirms that global temperatures are not "accelerating" nor "unequivocally" warming due to CO2 emissions.
As can be seen, the adjacent chart reflects the recent global cooling phenomenon.
Truth be told, the new global data clearly show that global temps are little influenced by CO2 levels. Plus, the over-hyped global warming is causing climate change alarmism has essentially no merit, per the data, thus falsifying Bill McKibben's entire career as an anti-CO2 crusader.
This newest empirical evidence affirms that highly paid (by the taxpayer) and arrogant climate scientists, and their billion dollar computer models, are often wrong, big time. Anti-science activists like McKibben would do well to show a little more humility about mother nature and also express at least an ounce of skepticism when listening to bureaucrat scientists with an agenda.
Conclusion: Connect the dots global warming does not exist and most certainly is not causing normal "climate change" weather events. If bad weather is happening more frequently, then activists might carefully examine the actual temeprature data and finally start asking if cooling is driving weather events.
For years the public wondered "Is global warming happening?" as the IPCC climate models predicted - instead the HadCRUT temperature dataset clearly shows global temps cooling off
(click on image to enlarge)
The adjacent chart documents the facts on the ground, so-to-speak, and easily answers the question: Is global warming happening?
The simple answer from the empirical observations is 'No.'
The IPCC climate models, using the business-as-usual CO2 emissions scenario A1F1 predicted a best estimate of global temperature increase of +4.0 degrees by year 2100. That prediction was based on year 2000 being the starting point.
Thus, per the IPCC model(s), by February 2012 the global temperatures should have already increased to 14.75 degrees C (pink dotted line) based on a 12-month moving average. Instead, since 2000, the HadCRUT global temperature has only slightly increased (red dotted line).
Below is a synopsis of linear trends of the model prediction and actual observations:
IPCC predicted: +4.0°C increase by year 2100
Since 1/1/1990 actual: +1.3°C increase by year 2100
Since 1/1/2000 actual: +0.4°C increase by year 2100
Since 1/1/2002 actual: -0.7°C decrease by year 2100
Despite human CO2 emissions continuing to grow in a 'business-as-usual' manner (grey curve, black dots), global warming has stopped and is currently declining, as the blue columns of the chart indicate. The blue fitted trend curve reveals the current direction of global temperatures - 'global cooling' would be the more accurate description for the last 10 years.
Conclusion: Is global warming happening?
Global warming has monotonously creeped to a point of global cooling since the 1998 peak temperatures. CO2 levels appear to have little, if any, direct impact on direction or magnitude of changes in global temperatures.
Why has global warming turned to cooling or, as some prefer, "stalled"? For the confusion that reigns over that issue read here.
[Note: To calculate rolling 12-month average of HadCRUT absolute temperatures, 'C3' used the HadCRUT global monthly anomalies plus the monthly absolutes found here. 'By year 2100' increases/decrease calculated using the 12-mth moving average absolutes. Although the A1F1 scenario starts in year 2000, the above Excel chart includes data back to 1990 to provide a visual context. Additional info on emission scenarios.]
If the current modern global cooling continues, winters in the Northern Hemisphere and summers in the Southern Hemispere could be colder - human CO2 emissions may actually be irrelevant
(click on images to enlarge)
From 1960 through 2011, over 1 trillion tons of CO2 have been emitted by humans from the burning of fossil fuels. The alarmist global warming theory requires that all those emissions still remain in the atmosphere - per the AGW alarmists, emissions will stay resident in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years.
But as the empirical evidence mounts, those trillions of tons of emissions are having a very small impact on global temperatures - so small, many of the world's best scientists are now questioning the relevancy of human CO2 on the world's climate. The previous modern warming has convincingly morphed into modern global cooling.
The top left chart is a plot of CO2 levels versus global temperatures for December, January and February. These months are typically the coldest for the Northern Hemisphere's winter and warmest for the Southern Hemisphere's summer. As the chart reveals, the last 15 years have seen significant cooling for these three months - including 1998, the trend is a minus 1.3 degrees/century.
The chart on the right, plots the Dec-Jan-Feb temperatures from 1960. The blue shaded areas represent the cooling periods that sandwich the modern warming that ended in 1998 with a kaboom - the Super El Niño of 1998.
Clearly, the massive 1 trillion+ tons of CO2 emissions are not making global temperatures "accelerate" prior to 1977, nor for the post-1998 period.
Conclusions: Modern cooling has prevailed during the December, January and February months since 1998; vast human CO2 emissions are not producing a global warming climate; and, the current cooling phase could switch to warming, or remain as is, depending on natural climatic fluctuations, regardless of CO2.
The IPCC's gold-standard dataset, HadCRUT, just announced the coldest February in the last 18 years - is this the end of modern global cooling?
(click on images to enlarge)
While many Americans welcomed a balmy-like February winter, this minor regional warming in some parts of the U.S. was overwhelmed by an otherwise large global cooling. Last time February global temperatures were colder than February 2012 was in 1994 - 18 years prior.
If this February cooling trend since 1994 continues, by 2100 February temperatures will be 0.7 degrees (C) cooler.
Modern global cooling for all months over the last 10 years through February has a more prominent per century trend of minus 1.1 degrees (C) (or a minus 0.95 degrees by 2100). It has now become a unanimous consensus that the 80's and 90's warming span turned into a cooling (be it slight) phase over the last 10 years.
Back to February. By examining past February temperatures since 1850 in more detail, it becomes clear that the HadCRUT dataset does not provide any empirical evidence of accelerated warming of February temperatures - temperature change is not constantly increasing, nor even positive every year for that matter.
Instead, as the top chart reveals, temperature change from one February to the next follows a consistent pattern of negative and positive changes, going back and forth, from 1850 to present day.
Now look closer at the chart (click to enlarge). That purple line is the linear trend of February temperature changes - it's flat, indicating that global February temperatures are not unequivocally warming. Look at the red curve - that's the 30-year simple average of February temperature change.
Note how the red curve has remained within a narrow volatility band ever since 1880 and all the way through February 2012. Again, clearly global February temperatures are not exhibiting the long-predicted accelerating temperature change regime that was going to make winters disappear in the Northern Hemisphere.
Interesting to note, as CO2 levels kept up their constant growth (black dots), when were the biggest positive and negative changes in February temperatures over the last 50 years? Way back in 1973 and 1974 (back-to-back) when the globe was experiencing its previous global cooling phase, not during the warming of the 80's and 90's.
And, what would the climate change statistics look like if there were actually accelerating temperature increases? The adjacent chart shows that: the last 10 years of actual February temperature change were altered to artificially increase by +0.25 degree every February. That level of accelerated change caused the purple trend line to slope up, and caused the red 30-year average curve to break out of its narrow band of variation, significantly.
Conclusions: HadCRUT global, the IPCC's gold-standard temperature dataset, indicates that the world has experienced a modern global cooling trend over the past 10 years; in addition, the month of February has experienced a cooling trend since February of 1994; the recent past cooling does not mean either future regional and/or global warming will not happen; the "powerful" greenhouse gas, CO2, turns out not to be very powerful ('lame' comes to mind); and, zero of the multi-billion dollar "expert" climate models predicted this modern global cooling period.
For additional temperature charts, visit these 'C3' pages: Modern, regional, historical and fabricating-fake temperature charts - hey, if you only look at the above charts you'll be accused of 'cherry picking' by someone!
Note: February 2012 tied February 2008 as the coldest February since 1994.
Global warming theorists now claim that Arctic sea ice melt causes colder and snowier winters - the empirical evidence indicates that it must also cause colder oceans, a definite AGW negative feedback
(click on images to enlarge)
These Bob Tisdale charts of ocean temperatures through January 2012 are most enlightening. To summarize the data plotted on the charts, ocean temperatures, as represented by the Southern, South Pacific and global measurements, clearly show a decline since the 1998 El Niño event. The Southern Ocean (aka the Antarctica Ocean) has experienced a very significant decline in temperature since the early 2000's.
Sooo...per the logic of the typical global warming alarmist, the Arctic sea ice melt from human CO2 emissions does the following, from one Polar region to its geographic opposite:
In essence, the tortured logic of the ever-changing alarmist climate change theories literally leads one to conclude that global cooling weather events are the natural negative feedback to AGW.
Of course, no IPCC climate change report (so far) has remotely stated the above. But the actual climate empirical evidence (ie, non-warming world, lower ocean temps) and cold weather events has now forced CO2-centric global warming alarmists into a pretzeled logic that ultimately supports the overall negative feedbacks of global climate as understood by CAGW-skeptics, not the positive feedbacks pushed by the IPCC.
In addition, a new peer reviewed study found that over the last 30 years the Antarctica snowmelt has been trending down, which substantiates the observed cooler temperatures as the above plots show.
"Surface snowmelt is widespread in coastal Antarctica. Satellite-based microwave sensors have been observing melt area and duration for over three decades.....The paper actually shows a declining trend in snowmelt over the past 31 years, although not statistically significant. Of note, the abstract states, "other than atmospheric processes likely determine long-term ice shelf stability." Translation: increased CO2 and other 'greenhouse gases' do not threaten stability of the Antarctic ice shelf." [P. Kuipers Munneke, G. Picard, M. R. van den Broeke, J. T. M. Lenaerts, E. van Meijgaard 2011: Geophysical Research Letters]
The NOAA / NCDC climate research group published year-end U.S. temperature data confirming that U.S. is still cooling - CO2 has zero global warming impact on U.S.
As the Climategate 2.0 emails continue to establish, the alarmist climate scientists claiming "unprecedented" and "accelerating" global warming actually can't find either. When examining the global temperature trends, it is clear that global warming has actually been missing for the last 15 years. This has definitely been the case of the continental U.S., as the chart below depicts. (click on to enlarge)
This "global cooling" of the U.S continues in spite of growing CO2 emissions. Human CO2 emissions continue to grow at a business-as-usual pace with a record set in 2010 for the largest emissions ever.
The NOAA/NCDC chart on the left represents the 15 years (180 months), starting January 1, 1997 and ending December 31, 2011. Per these latest U.S. official temperature data records, the 12-month period ending December was the 5th coldest December-ending period for the last 15 years.
In terms of a single month, December 2011 was the 22nd warmest since 1895 (December 1998 was the warmest).
The per century cooling trend of this period, a minus 4.4°F, took place despite the huge warmth produced by two large El Niño events during this 15-year span: 1997-1998 and 2009-2010.
For the 10-year period ending December 2011 (Januart 1, 2002 thru December, 2011 - 120 months), the cooling trend accelerates to a very significant minus 7.2°F per century rate - again, per the updated NOAA/NCDC temperature records.
Please note: The linear temperature trend, as shown in the NOAA chart, is not a prediction.
Satellite measurements confirm that global warming has stopped over the last 15 years despite large increases of atmospheric CO2 levels
The chart on the left has to be extremely painful and embarrassing for the IPCC's Climategate alarmists and their 'big green' and MSM comrades.
Despite the large increases of atmospheric CO2 levels, the global temperatures have barely increased - contrary to predictions from the IPCC, NOAA and NASA's GISS. Per the linear trend of the adjacent chart, the projected temperature increase by year 2100 will only be a ludicrously tiny +0.05 degree (yes, only 1/20th of a single degree).
The grey curve/background indicates the monotonous growth of CO2 levels, while the blue curve reveals temperatures trending slightly cooler over the last 15 years. One could easily surmise from this chart that increased CO2 levels (due to human CO2 emissions) have actually "cooled" the planet since the earth-fever of the 1997-98 El Niño event.
Obviously, the satellite provides further empirical evidence that human CO2 emissions are very unlikely to be a major force driving global temperatures and/or climate change. The lack of observable correlation between monthly temperatures and monthly CO2 levels is stunning.
And here's a 'C3' prediction to take to the bank: the mainstream press will not provide its readers and viewers with this actual satellite data that literally contradicts their past hysterical "global-warming reporting."
Additional modern and historical temperature charts. Source of temperature and CO2 data for above Excel chart. [Note: linear trends are not predictions]
Since 1998 the IPCC's HadCRUT reports global cooling - neither Nasa's GISS nor HadCRUT report "dangerous," nor "accelerating," nor "runaway," nor "tipping point" nor "irreversible" global warming
Unfortunately, almost every family has to suffer with the typical "useful idiot" family member during the holidays who has relied on MSNBC, ABC (Australia), the NY Times, the Washington Post, the BBC or CNN for their climate information. Soooo...below is a Christmas stocking stuffer to be pulled out at the appropriate time when the family idiot starts spewing the mainstream media left / liberal / progressive / Democrat climate anti-science.
The IPCC's climate reports' gold-standard for global averages is the HadCRUT temperature dataset. Since the end of 1997, the HadCRUT global average shows an actual global cooling trend, not warming (-0.03C degrees/century). And since the end of 2000, this IPCC gold-standard has global cooling trend increasing to a -0.6C degree/century. (click on charts to enlarge)
The blue trend line is the IPCC's best-of-breed temperature dataset. Nasa's GISS dataset is represented by the red trend and NOAA's NCDC dataset by the green trend.
From the above, we can surmise the following:
1. Despite record setting human CO2 emissions over the past decade, they have not caused "dangerous," "accelerating," "runaway," "tipping point" or "irreversible" global warming
2. Per the IPCC gold-standard, a slight global cooling trend has developed since the end of 1997, and is more prominent since the end of 2000
3. Despite two large El Nino (extreme warming) events since 1997, the global temperatures per the IPCC gold-standard have trended down (through November 2011)
4. None of the IPCC's climate models predicted deceleration of global warming, let alone the actual global cooling
5. Whether it's the HadCRUT or GISS or NCDC temperature trends shown above, "accelerating" global warming is not reality - the opposite is reality
6. A worst case warming scenario based on recent trends (GISS or NCDC, not HadCRUT) might range from a +0.3C to +0.9C warming by year 2100 (trends are not predictions)
7. The climate sensitivity to CO2 atmospheric levels has been a fraction of that predicted by the IPCC
8. The hysterically claimed climate temperature "tipping point" is just that - hysteria
9. Natural climate and/or cyclical phenomenon has likely had a much greater influence on global temperatures than the immense human CO2 emissions
10. There is no "consensus" among HadCRUT, GISS and NCDC regarding global temperatures
With our listing of both the GISS and NCDC trends above (in addition to HadCRUT), one may wonder why they are not considered the IPCC's gold-standard. Well, regarding Nasa's GISS, a scientist from GISS has stated the following to an USA Today journalist:
“My recommendation to you is to continue using NCRDC [NOAA] data for U.S. mean [temperatures] and Phil Jones’ [HadCRUT] data for the global mean…We are basically a modeling group…for that purpose what we do is more than accurate enough [to assess model results]. But we have no intention to compete with either of the other two organizations in what they do best.”
So, even the GISS folks hardly view their global temperature dataset as being the gold-standard, why should the IPCC?
Regarding the NOAA/NCDC temperature series, a recent analysis of their dataset revisions show a continuous monthly adjustment effort of historical temperatures that signify more a political agenda versus an impartial science objective. Amazingly, in the month of November 2011 alone, NCDC has published at least 4 different versions of their temperature dataset.
More importantly, the current NOAA chief has turned the science agency into a political and global warming hothouse, where facts and evidence are fabricated or subject to ludicrous revisionism for green political purposes. NOAA has become a science joke and the IPCC can ill afford hitching their wagon to another Green Mafia controlled outfit. Thus, no "gold-standard" for the NCDC temperature dataset.
That leaves the HadCRUT dataset as the gold-standard, which, by the way, finds the globe cooling, not warming - hmmm...did we say that already?
Ben Santer & James Hansen have long been declaring that global warming was accelerating from human CO2 - instead, the real facts reveals their incompetence
Santer and Hansen are two climate modelers that have been spectacularly wrong for so long that it's even painful for skeptics to witness. These two have been cluck-clucking forever about how CO2 levels were causing accelerating and irreversible global warming, with some climate "disruption" thrown in to scare the politicians and policymakers.
However, as the actual empirical evidence through November 2011 reveals, it is highly unlikely that either of these "scientists" could find his own ass with his hands. Even using Santer's own preferred 17-year analysis span (chart on left), it is clear that global warming is insignificant and likely moving towards a cooling phase.
The chart on right shows the climate model abomination that NASA and Hansen base their predictions on. The level of climate science incompetence is mind-boggling. (click on images to enlarge)
The only things Santer and Hansen have managed to succeed at is enrichingthemselves, at the expense of science and the taxpayers.
Predicted warming of continental U.S. by climate "experts" is proven to be robustly wrong
As the Climategate2.0 emails continue to establish, the alarmist climate scientists claiming "unprecedented" and "accelerating" global warming actually can't find either. When examining the global temperature trends, it is clear that global warming has actually been missing for the last 15 years. This has definitely been the case of the continental U.S., as the graph on the left depicts. (click on to enlarge)
And, as the chart on the right depicts, this "global cooling" of the U.S continues in spite of growing CO2 emissions. Human CO2 emissions continue to grow at a business-as-usual pace with a record set in 2010 for the largest emissions ever.
The NOAA/NCDC chart on the left represents the 15 years (180 months), starting December 1, 1996 and ending November 30, 2011. Per these latest U.S. official temperature data records, the 12-month period ending November was the 5th coldest November-ending period for the last 15 years.
In terms of a single month, November 2011 was the 25th warmest since 1895 (November 1999 was the warmest).
The per century cooling trend of this period, a minus 4.6°F, took place despite the huge warmth produced by two large El Niño events during this 15-year span: 1997-1998 and 2009-2010.
For the 10-year period ending November 2011 (December 1, 2001 thru November, 2011 - 120 months), the cooling trend accelerates to a very significant minus 8.9°F per century rate - again, per the updated NOAA/NCDC temperature records.
Please note: The linear temperature trend, as shown in the NOAA chart, is not a prediction.
Temperature data source here. Carbon chart source here. (click on images to enlarge)
Climate reality keeps defying (mocking?) the IPCC's Climategate scientists. When examining the global temperature trends, it is clear that global warming has actually been missing for the last 15 years. This has definitely been the case of the continental U.S., as the graph on the left depicts.
And, as the chart on the right depicts, this "global cooling" of the U.S continues in spite of the world's ten worst accelerating CO2 emitters (below the red line) over the last two years. The countries increasing their CO2 emissions the most are: South Africa (home of Durban), Egypt, Brazil, Vietnam, Iran, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, India and China.
The NOAA/NCDC chart represents the 15 years (180 months), starting November 1, 1996 and ending October 31, 2011. Per these latest U.S. official temperature data records, the 12-month period ending October was the 5th coldest October-ending period for the last 15 years.
In terms of a single month, October 2011 was the 33rd warmest since 1895 (October 1963 was the warmest).
The per century cooling trend of this period, a minus 3.7°F, took place despite the huge warmth produced by two large El Niño events during this 15-year span: 1997-1998 and 2009-2010.
For the 10-year period ending October 2011 (November 1, 2001 thru October, 2011 - 120 months), the cooling trend accelerates to a very significant minus 10.6°Fper century rate - again, per the updated NOAA/NCDC temperature records.
Please note: These linear temperature trends, as shown in the NOAA chart, are not predictions.
Last week the BEST research team released their findings in regards to land surface temperatures. The BEST data matched up very closely with the IPCC's gold standard, the HadCRUT land temps sub-dataset. In summary, the Berkeley study had a few key points, including:
BEST results found one-third of climate stations report a cooling, not a warming
BEST determined that government maintained temperature-station quality is "awful"
BEST found that the urban impact on global land temperatures is minimal
BEST concluded that the human influence on land temperatures may be overestimated
BEST concluded that land temperatures may be driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - a decadal phenomenon
Since the BEST land surface results were so similar to the Hadley and CRU efforts, it is highly probable that the future BEST research will closely mimic the HadCRUT3 global temperature dataset as shown above in the chart on the left.
The latest HadCRUT dataset report (released today, 10/28/2011) through September 2011 reveals a very insignificant warming over the last 15 years, with zero correlation to increasing CO2 levels. The global HadCRUT linear trend if projected out means a total global temperature increase of +0.3 degrees by year 2100.
The chart on the right tracks the HadCRUT and GISS global temperature anomalies versus the NASA climate model prediction of global temperatures due to CO2 emissions. It is obvious, that the climate models are stupendously wrong in their estimate of the temperature impact of human CO2 emissions - if the models were correct, the HadCRUT and GISS temperature anomalies would resemble Hansen's 'green' curve. (Note: Climate predictions from the IPCC, its models and its experts are consistently wrong.)
Based on this most recent temperature and CO2 information, one can safely assume that the BEST researchers are no dummies.....that would explain their hedging comments that the human influence is 'overestimated' and that natural decadal oscillations may be driving temperatures instead of human CO2 emissions.
Climate reality keeps defying (mocking?) the IPCC's Climategate scientists. When examining the global temperature trends, it is clear that global warming has actually been missing for the last 15 years. This has definitely been the case of the continental U.S. as the graph on the left depicts.
This chart represents the 15 years (180 months), starting October 1, 1997 and ending September 30, 2011. Per the latest NOAA/NCDC U.S. official temperature data records, the 12-month period ending September was the 7th coldest September-ending period for the last 15 years. In terms of a single month, September 2011 was the 21st warmest since 1895 (September 1998 was the warmest.)
The per century cooling trend of this period, a minus 3.2°F, took place in spite of the huge warmth produced by two large El Niño events during this 15-year span: 1997-1998 and 2009-2010.
For the 10-year period ending September 2011 (October 1, 2001 thru September 30, 2011 - 120 months), the cooling trend accelerates to a very significant minus 9.9°F per century rate - again, per the updated NOAA/NCDC temperature records. These
When looking at the temperature trends, it is clear that global warming has actually been missing for the last 15 years. This has definitely been the case of the continental U.S. as the graph on the left depicts.
This chart represents the 15 years (180 months), starting September 1, 1997 and ending August 31, 2011. Per the latest NOAA/NCDC U.S. temperature data records, the 12-month period ending Augut was the 6th coldest August-ending period for the last 15 years. In terms of a single month, August 2011 was the 2nd warmest since 1895 (August 1983 was the warmest.)
The per century cooling trend of this period, a minus 3.2°F, took place in spite of the huge warmth produced by two large El Niño events during this 15-year span: 1997-1998 and 2009-2010.
For the 10-year period ending August 2011 (September 1, 2001 thru August 31, 2011 - 120 months), the cooling trend accelerates to a very significant minus 10.9°F per century rate - again, per the updated NOAA/NCDC temperature records.