The IPCC's catastrophic AGW hypothesis - and the entire climate change alarmist community - is getting hammered from all sides by the growing research that points to natural climate variation (ie, oscillations, patterns, cycles) being the principal causes of warming since the 1950s.
The latest evidence is coming from satellites that monitor the world's clouds and energy inflows.
As the adjacent charts depict (information derived from the RSS and CERES satellite datasets) at least one-third of ocean heating could be explained by the simple change in cloud cover over the oceans for a recent 20-year span.
Combine this natural cloud-induced warming with other earthly/cosmic/solar factors, which also would contribute to the modern warming trend, and it does not leave much of the recent modern warming being a direct result of the IPCC's evil CO2 mantra.
The IPCC, NOAA, NASA, the EPA and other agencies promoting catastrophic global warming hope politicians and the public don't realize the significance of the fundamental physics.
Simply stated, the more CO2 increases in the atmosphere, the less influence CO2 has on global temperatures - it's a logarithmic thing.
All climate scientists know this. It's the actual hard physics. (Btw, that "positive" feedback thingy about CO2's "tipping point" impact? That's actually soft science - quasi-speculative, not hard physics.)
The adjacent chart though depicts the factual reality about the ever smaller impact of growing levels of CO2.
The reddish columns represent a plot of global temperature sensitivity to CO2. Specifically, they represent 60-year changes in global temperature divided by the corresponding 60-year change in atmospheric CO2 levels (ppm) - a ratio.
The bright red curve is a simple 20-period average of that ratio, which has been declining since the 1950's. Recall that it is the IPCC that states categorically that modern "dangerous" warming started in the 1950s with the growth of industrial/consumer CO2 emissions.
Finally, the rapid growth of total atmospheric CO2 levels is shown by the black dots.
When it's all put together, per the IPCC, the red columns should be gaining in height as the years pass due to the accumulation of CO2 emissions in the atmosphere grows. Taller columns means that the ever increasing amounts of emissions are causing an even greater temperature change.
Clearly, the empirical evidence reveals that as atmospheric CO2 levels have grown, the impact on 60-year temperature changes has shrunk. From a high in the 1950s, to a very low impact as of 2012 (see blue column).
In summary, it's these stubborn climate facts that expose the invalidity/weakness of the AGW alarmist hypothesis. Sure, CO2 has an impact on temperatures but its maximum impact was decades ago and it is shrinking.
As human CO2 emissions continue to increase in the future, the resultant global warming will be smaller and smaller, and will continue to be overwhelmed by natural climate variation.
Note: Excel used to plot datasets. Ratio is simply the 60-year change in annual HadCRUT4 temperatures divided by the 60-year change in annual atomspheric CO2 levels. Dataset sources.
A strong correlation between CO2 levels and global temperatures is a necessary condition of the CO2-based AGW hypothesis.
So, what does a strong correlation look like?
for example, the top chart (A) for two economic variables reveals an
incredibly strong correlation, a 'cause and effect' that is strikingly
obvious since 2007. (see original here)
bottom chart (B) reveals the correlation between temperatures
(GISS/NASA) and CO2 levels during the exact same time period as chart A.
Look carefully - THERE IS NO CORRELATION! And over the last 15 years, the R2 equals a miserably low 0.05
Unicorn climate science ignores the empirical evidence, replaced with wishful fantasies that don't exist in the real world.
P.S. Yep, the bottom chart does plot a slight cooling trend for the NASA temperature dataset since January 2007. (NASA/CO2 plot sources here; used Excel to produce the plots, linear trend and correlation)
Anti-science alarmists and pro-global warming ('AGW') scientists are very enamored with multi-proxy temperature reconstructions, which allows "researchers" to statistically blend and torture different forms of data to force a "confession" that modern warming has been "unprecedented" - however, as expert skeptics have discovered, these studies are often found to be empirically and statistically-challenged garbage and end up being a cornucopia of unintended contradictions...the new PAGES2K paleo-torture study is the latest example
The new Kaufman et al. study (aka as the 'PAGES2K' research) is getting its initial web-wide forensic review in multiple articles across the web, including here, here, here, here and here.
The two images above are derived from one of the study's own charts (see the Bob Tisdale article).
The chart on the left depicts those areas of the world that experienced modern warming supposedly greater than any warming over the last 2,000 years; and, the chart on the right represents those areas where modern warming was less than that of certain periods during the past 2,000 years. Both charts have the past 2,000 year atmospheric levels superimposed (the pinkish curve) on them.
It is from the Tisdale analysis that it first becomes apparent that the law of unintended consequences has interestingly come into play - the study's authors have actually built a case (be it likely an unforced error) that supports the views of the majority of catastrophic global warming skeptics/lukewarmers.
From the study itself, and a close review of the above images, we now know the following:
First, as even the New York Times points out, this study determined that the Arctic was warmer during the 1940s to 1970s than during years of the late 20th century. (Sidebar: If the approximate modern instrumental global warming increase of 0.85°C since 1850 is added to the Greenland ice core data, modern warming is still below peaks of the Medieval & Roman periods.) Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Second, the study determined that periods prior to 1000AD had warmer temperatures in Europe. Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Third, this study finds Antarctica was warmer, from the 2nd through 13th centuries, than during our modern era. (Sidebar: If the approximate modern instrumental global warming increase of 0.85°C since 1850 is added to the Vostok ice core data, modern warming is still below the peak temperature between 1AD and 1000AD.) Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Fourth, this study points out that true global warming has not taken place in the modern era, but regional strong warming has. Of the 7 regional areas analyzed, only 3 exhibit a strong warming (more likely only 2, see point #11 below). The other four regions, not so much. Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Fifth, the study clearly indicates that major climate change is taking place at all times, in different manners, across the globe. Climate change is not some new modern phenomenon. Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Sixth, the study shows atmospheric CO2 levels are not a cause of past major climate change. Throughout most of the last 2,000 years, CO2 levels are stable yet climate change is constantly happening. Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Seventh, the study documents that unprecedented regional warming takes place regardless of low/high atmospheric CO2 levels.Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Eighth, this study, in combination with the known recent global temperature trend (subsequent to this study's ending date of 2000AD), clearly makes an indisputable case that recent modern global warming is not as claimed: unprecedented; unequivocal; irrefutable; irreversible; nor dangerously accelerating. Confirms view of skeptics.
Ninth, this study affirms that periods of "unprecedented" warming do not cause the IPCC's urban legend of "runaway," "tipping point," dangerous global warming. Of course, the hottest period ever recorded (Minoan era) in the ice cores over the last 4,000 years already proved that the mythical "tipping point" is just that. Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Tenth, this study again provides proof that the AGW-alarmist researchers will use each and every attempt to remove and/or minimize the exceptional Medieval Warming Period that the vast majority of local/regional paleoresearchstudies, and the historical literature, have well documented. It is simply freaking amazing that this group of researchers would present an analysis of Europe's past warming without the extreme and extended warming of the Medieval era (see chart onright). Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Eleventh, this study clearly proves to the public that the proponents of AGW-alarmism will utilize excessive cherry-picking ofempirical paleo research to fabricate their "scientific" claims of modern "unprecedented" warming. Not only did this study exclude the preponderance of paleo-scientists' research that documents past extreme warming, but this study was brazen enough to include paleo temperature reconstructions that even a peer-reviewed science journal ultimately rejected because of its statistical flim-flam. Without the infamous, widely discredited Gergis et al. study, it is highly likely that the "Australasia" region of the above chart on the left would have to be moved to the chart of the right, above - thus leaving just 2 regions of the world that may have had modern "unprecedented" warming in the 20th century, and only a single region of the world that had "unprecedented" warming since 1970 (recall that this study confirmed the Arctic was warmer from the 1940s to the 1970s). Confirms view of skeptics, check.
Conclusion: This multi-cherry-picking proxy study has many claiming that modern temps are the "hottest" across the globe, over the last 1,400 years. In fact, as the above information clarifies, some regions of the world had strong modern warming (that is, supposedly), while the majority did not. As this study itself determines, global warming, cooling and climate change are not done in some lock step manner across the world in a monotonous cause and effect relationship with CO2. Skeptics of both the IPCC's catastrophic global warming hysteria and the elites' CO2-kills fanaticism have pointed this out for years (if not decades). The geological and historical records/datasets support the essentials of the non-hysterical skeptic/lukewarmers' analysis of climate change, and now this study suggests the alarmist community has inadvertently accepted many of the same views.
The complete failure of the global warming alarmism movement, as represented by the fringe green-fundamentalists, is being welldocumentedon alllevels - ultimately, this spectacular failure is the result of extremists promulgating anti-science climate predictions that ignore the most basic of known physics
Dr. William Happer is one of America's preeminent physics experts, who now calls Princeton University home.
He is the scientific antithesis of those fringe, global warming alarmists predicting climate change disasters and doomsday over the last few decades. Fringe-green personalities such as Joe Romm, Bill McKibben, John Holdren, Michael Mann, Leonardo DiCaprio, James Hansen, Al Gore, Jeff Masters, Paul Erhlich are just some of the quack climate prognosticators-of-hysteria that Happer usually mops the science lab floor with.
And Happer is at it again, taking to task the anti-science clerics in a piece written for the Watts Up With That? blog. His current ire is focused on the crazed CO2-fanatics' claims of future temperatures by year 2050.
In his article, Happer discusses the basic disregard of physics that a hapless (witless?) WSJ reporter is responsible for. Instead of writing about known science, she instead lends credibility to an utterly ludicrous +6.0 degree warming prediction from the fundamentalists, which has no real basis in physics.
As the good doctor explains, per the logarithmic nature of a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels, the subsequent global temperature increase will essentially be a +1.0 degree increase - not 2 degrees, not 3 and certainly not 6. This is irrefutable physics, explained in detail via the requisite formulas.
The real-world physics does not allow for a fantastic 6 degree increases to be achieved; for that to happen, the IPCC's mythical positive feedbacks have to arise.
In reality though, there is no acceptable physics science that supports the belief that positive feedbacks will arise, and at the same time produce the hypothetical big temperature increases. And adding to the green clerics' fallible alarmism, there is absolutely no empirical evidence that the fantasized feedbacks of their consistently wrong climate models even exists (hmmm...kind of like those fantasized, mythical 72 virgins).
With all that in mind, the above chart attempts to visualize (using the gold-standard, IPCC empirical temperature dataset) what Dr. Happer has explained. Let's breakdown this Excel chart to its components:
1. The blue curve (with the bluish area underneath) represents the simple running 12-month average of global absolute temperatures calculated from HadCRUT4 monthly anomalies. Since the end of the Little Ice Age (~1850), the actual global temperature increase has been about +0.85°C, through February 2013.
2. The red curve represents a simple 60-month average of the blue curve's data. The recent decade+ global warming pause (i.e., "stall") is clearly evident.
3. The light orange curve is a 2nd order fitted trend of the global temperature measurements extended out till year 2050. Based on this Excel fitted trend of all the empirical evidence, global temperatures are headed for a 15.0°C average by 2050 - an increase of about +0.53 degrees over today.
4. The darker orange arrows on the right axis represents the likely range of temperature increase from a doubling of initial 1850AD CO2 levels that known physics supports (although Dr. Happer's calculations indicate an increase of+1.0 degree, this Excel chart utilizes a narrow range that many other experts have spoken to). The possilbe range per the physics: +1.0 to +1.5 degrees.
5. The black-dotted curve includes monthly estimates of monthly atmospheric CO2 levels prior to 1959, and thereafter, the actual monthly measurements.
6. The grey curve is a 2nd order fitted trend for CO2 levels extended out to year 2050.
7. Finally, the pink-dashed line represents the non-physics +6.0°C global warming increase predicted by many of the fear-mongers.
This visualization of the empirical reality lends solid observational support to the physics laid out by Dr. Happer. In addition, the chart denotes how absurd the +6 degree fear-mongering is, and why "scientists" and reporters promulgating it should not be believed.
The latest IPCC climate "expert" hypothesis that global warming causes everything, including the recent global cooling, has been verified by NOAA's up-to-date temperature dataset - through March 2013, it would definitely appear that the previous 15-year global warming caused the subsequent 180-month global cooling while atmospheric CO2 levels still remained completely irrelevant
Note: Above chart uses the NCDC global dataset published through March 2013. The left two columns (CO2 & temperature) represent the 15 years (180 months) ending March 1998, the right two columns represent the 15 years ending March 2013.
For decades, the mainstream journalists have dutifully reported hysterical alarmism generated by a minority of scientists dedicated to the concept of human CO2-caused catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW)...this style of sensationalist, tabloid "climate science" journalism however is dependent on either a condition of stuck-on-stupid mentality or a highly biased, politically motivated political agenda, not on scientific empirical evidence
Read here. Adjacent is a chart that depicts the output of climate alarmism of catastrophic global warming scientists, versus scientific reality. Per this empirical evidence, the experts and their wildly expensive, souped-up CAGW spreadsheet models obviously can't predict squat.
Despite this well documented, spectacular and long known failure of the "consensus," "expert" climate models, the stuck-on-stupid tabloid press is just now coming to grips with their own spectacular stupidity (gullibility?).
It would benefit all Americans, and the rest of the world's populace, if everyone just simply ignored the mainstream press in regards to any type of science reporting - if that were to happen, incredibly wasteful dumb policies would not be implemented by an even stupider class of individuals - the politicians.
The anti-science Democrats and left-wing greens absolutely hate the Medieval Warming Period (MWP), due to its invalidation of the modern CO2 global warming-climate change hypothesis - no matter their extraordinarilylame corrupted/bogus attempts to prove otherwise, the objective empirical evidence continues to confirm the MWP was an uniquely extended warm era
In another fascinating exposé of climate science flim-flam produced by yet another group of academia climate-quacks, Steve McIntyre has the adjacent chart embedded in his article.
This chart represents a 5,000 year span of temperature variation in the Arctic region (Ellesmere Island) per peer-reviewed research . To add context, we superimposed the atmospheric CO2 levels (mauve curve) from the last 2,000 years.
Several very obvious conclusions can be drawn that gut claims by anti-science alarmists and quacks:
1. Climate change is a science-proven constant.
2. Periods of global warming and global cooling happen frequently
3. The Medieval and Roman periods were warmer than the modern era
4. Temperatures changed regardless of CO2 levels
5. CO2, be it natural or human, is not the globe's "thermostat"
Finally, per the HockeySchtick blog, it is known that the essentially barren Ellesmere Island had temperatures some 2 to 3 degrees higher than current temps, despite the gigantic CO2 emissions of our modern consumer/industrial era.
The ultimate test for the IPCC's catastrophic AGW hypothesis is the existence of the predicted "hotspot" that is a sign of a positive feedback loop for accelerating global warming - newest data show that even after record setting human CO2 emissions the "hotspot" failed to materialize
Per the IPCC's global warming hypothesis, at the very top of the troposphere, above the equator region, is the location (12km, 200hPa @ 20°N - 20°S) that triggers a positive climate feedback, which produces the mythical runaway, tipping point of accelerated, dangerous global warming, which of course is unequivocal and irrefutable, except when it isn't.
This location is often referred to as the tropical "hotspot," supposedly an artifact of modern industrial/consumer human CO2 emissions.
The high climate sensitivity programmed into the IPCC's climate models is entirely dependent of this hotspot of positive feedback - with the hotspot, climate models predict a scary global warming range that spans from 2°C to 6°C.
If there is no tropical upper troposphere hotspot, then there is no positive feedback, and thus, no climate change crisis as predicted by the IPCC. If there is no hotspot, then the IPCC hypothesis of CO2 caused global warming (AGW) is essentially proven false.
Based on accepted physics, without the positive feedback triggered by the hotspot, surface global temperatures from a doubling of pre-industrial CO2 will increase by some +0.5° to 1.5°C. That is the range climate models predict (depending on the given climate model) if the "hotspot" does not exist.
The IPCC's gold-standard for upper troposphere data is the UK's HadAT2 dataset that represents high altitude balloon/radiosonde measurements. These balloons provide a higher resolution of the atmospheric layer temperatures than current satellites can provide. Over time, approximately 28+ million radiosonde measurements have taken place.
A few days ago (2/19/2013), the HadAT2 was finally updated through December 31, 2012 - the previous update of dataset was through 12/31/2011. The above chart plots the latest AT2 dataset and concurrent, well-mixed atmospheric CO2 levels over the last 17 years. (Why 17?)
Conclusions from the chart:
#1.The IPCC's tropical "hotspot" does not exist.
#2. Atmospheric CO2 levels over 350ppm do not cause a hotspot to occur.
#3. The climate sensitivity to CO2 is lower than expert assumptions.
#4. Temporary natural El Nino events do cause a spike in upper troposphere temperatures but then return to a lower temperature state (no positive feedback loop).
#5. The IPCC, its experts and climate models have been wrong about the mythical hotspot since the UN created the IPCC (1988).
#6. The continuing abysmal failure of climate models is likely associated with the lack of the mythical, hypothesized hotspot.
#7. The AGW hypothesis of tipping point, climate positive feedback is proven false after decades of zero empirical evidence supporting it.
#8. Despite all empirical evidence, IPCC scientists and bureaucrats will keep pushing the hotspot, positive feedback hypothesis in order to continue their lucrative taxpayer funding.
Recently, a new 2012 study by Stephen Po-Chedley and Qiang Fu found:
"It is demonstrated that even with historical SSTs as a boundary
condition, most atmospheric models exhibit excessive tropical upper
tropospheric warming relative to the lower-middle troposphere as
compared with satellite-borne microwave sounding unit measurements. It
is also shown that the results from CMIP5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCMs
are similar to findings from CMIP3 coupled GCMs. The apparent
model-observational difference for tropical upper tropospheric warming
represents an important problem..."
Previous studies have documented the tropical hotspot problem (source for all quotes here):
"Climate models and theoretical expectations have predicted that the
upper troposphere should be warming faster than the surface.
Surprisingly, direct temperature observations from radiosonde and
satellite data have often not shown this expected trend." Sherwood et al 2008.
"On multi-decadal timescales, tropospheric amplification of surface
warming is a robust feature of model simulations, but occurs in only one
observational dataset." Other observations show weak or even negative amplification.” Santer et al 2005
“A recent report of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) identified a ‘potentially serious inconsistency’ between modelled and observed trends in tropical lapse rates.” Santer et al 2008
“Model results and observed temperature
trends are in disagreement in most of the tropical troposphere, being
separated by more than twice the uncertainty of the model mean. In
layers near 5 km, the modelled trend is 100 to 300% higher than
observed, and, above 8 km, modelled and observed trends have opposite signs.” Douglass et al 2007
Update, per a reader's email: First, from the 2nd order draft of the IPCC's AR5, and second, from a comment at Judith Curry's 'Climate Etc.' blog:
"Section 184.108.40.206.2, p. 9-26, lines 31-33: "In Summary, there is a high confidence (robust evidence although only medium agreement) that most, though not all, CMIP3 and CMIP5 models overestimate the warming trend in the tropical troposphere during the satellite period 197902011. The cause of this bias remains elusive.""
"However my working hypothesis is that Santer would have continued to ignore these demonstrations, were it not for the Fu (2011, GRL) paper, which included Syukuro Manabe (godfather of CO2-climate modeling) as co-author also showing disagreement between models and measured temperatures...However, once the Fu 2011 paper came out, it became “establishment” that there was in fact a significant disagreement between models and measured temps. So now after the Fu 2011 paper we have (Thorne, 2011 [JGR], Po-Chedley (2012), Seidel (2012) and Santer (2012) all agreeing that models and measurements for tropical troposphere temperaures cannot be reconciled."
Note 1: A simple
hotspot explanation summarized from this article: Increasing CO2 levels causes atmosphere to warm;
then atmosphere causes Earth's surface to warm; warming of oceans cause
evaporation; increased evaporation leads to more water vapor in the
upper troposphere; water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas that warms
the atmosphere even more (positive water vapor feedback); the Earth's surface warms
even more; and then auto 'repeat and rinse' until Earth's oceans boil, per an "expert."
Note 2: A scientist discusses the IPCC hotspot issue and dismantles a lame pro-hotspot argument (geesh, talk about alarmists' "scientific" mis-truths).
Note 3: The catastrophic global warming alarmists, be they "scientists" or political hacks, are very alarmed that the "hotspot" never materialized. To cover up this major failure of the AGW hypothesis, they usually attempt excited hand-waving to distract the gullible, including: the disingenuous, circular logic claim that it must exist because the models predict it, thus the measurements must be wrong; or the amazing claim that the hotspot exists but it just doesn't reveal itself to humans (really, trust us, it's hiding).
The IPCC's catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) hypothesis is on verge of collapse as non-existent warming facts force unpleasant admissions of truth - and, the empirical evidence implicates increasing clouds as being the culprit for the halt of warming
This chart is a plot of global "warming" as represented by the red curve (a 5th order fitted trend) and the grey curve for CO2 levels (a 5th order fit). As the red curve indicates, global temperatures started sliding lower during the early 2000's.
The highly variable thin blue line is a plot of global cloud coverage from this source with the following change: the blue curve has been inverted. The result being that when the blue curve goes up, that indicates a smaller cloud coverage; when the blue curve goes down, that means the cloud coverage is increasing.
As this chart clearly depicts, when cloud coverage decreases, allowing more solar energy to reach the surface, the global temperatures climb (note the 1980-1990's period). In addition, the warming stopped and started to slide lower when the cloud coverage increased after the 1990s - apparently, small changes in cloud coverage are quite powerful in terms of subsequent temperature trends.
Obviously, there is a significant relationship between clouds and temperatures. Just as obviously, the relationship between CO2 and global temperatures (and clouds) is from weak to lame, at best - confirming evidence here.
The physics is not difficult to understand by skeptics, nor objective scientists: less clouds allow more sunshine to strike the Earth's surface (1980-1990s); more clouds decrease sunshine at surface (2000s).
Although the cloud coverage data are only available through 2009 for the above chart, a recent 2012 study verifies that cloud coverage is a major determinant of global warming (climate change):
“The global average cloud cover declined about 1.56% over 39 years (1979
to 2009) or ~0.4%/decade, primarily in middle latitudes at middle and
high levels (Eastman & Warren, 2012). Declining clouds
appear to be a major contributor to the observed global warming. A 1
percentage point decrease in albedo (30% to 29%) would increase the
black-body radiative equilibrium temperature about 1°C, about equal to a
doubling of atmospheric CO2. e.g. by a 1.5% reduction in clouds since they form up to 2/3rds of global albedo (IPCC report AR4 1.5.2 p.114). [Ryan Eastman, Stephen G. Warren, A 39-Year Survey of Cloud Changes from Land Stations Worldwide 1971-2009: Journal of Climate]
#1: Evidence indicates a strong relationship between clouds and global temperatures.
#2. Evidence indicates a weak relationship between CO2 levels and global temperatures.....major, catastrophic global warming from CO2 is highly unlikely
#3. Evidence indicates a weak relationship between CO2 levels and global cloud coverage.
#4. Clouds are so important to global temperatures, crazed alarmist billionaires are investing huge amounts to manufacture anti-warming, floating cloud machines.
#5. The IPCC climate models are programmed to predict the opposite of what objective scientists believe due to the above actual evidence, and what crazy billionaires know (and will invest) due to common sense.
100% of climate scientists now agree that accelerating global warming has robustly stalled- the IPCC's gold-standard UK HadCRUT global temperature dataset confirms what skeptical scientists have long publicly discussed
There no longer is any serious debate of the non-existence of dangerous, accelerating global warming from human CO2 emissions - literally, from all current climate empirical evidence, it does not exist.
In the scientific real world though, there is an abundance of peer reviewed, solid scientific evidence pointing conclusively to a future of both moderate temperature and climate change.
As the above chart reveals, atmospheric CO2 levels have constantly increased since 1990 - see recent CO2 charts here.
In contrast, the IPCC's gold-standard global dataset (above chart) confirms temperatures have stalled since 1998 - actually, they have slightly cooled at a -0.08 degrees/century trend.
The chart's solid blue curve is a simple three year moving average of non-scary global temperature change that current political elites conveniently ignores and the MSM refuses to report.
Current global temperatures are significantly below NASA's climate model and "expert" predictions - note the dotted red line on chart.
All the major climate agency computer models, based on human CO2 emissions, have failed spectacularly.
Modern weather disasters (e.g., blizzards, tropical storms, etc.) portrayed by political elites and MSM "reporters" as caused by "climate change" are the exactly the same bad weather disasters that took place during earlier periods of low atmospheric CO2.
An analysis of the IPCC's gold-standard global temperature dataset reveals long-term changes in global warming as less than predicted by the AGW hypothesis - the UK empirical evidence (HatCRUT3) confirms that human CO2 is producing a minimal to trivial effect relative to the UN's IPCC climate change scenarios
The adjacent chart plots 30-year changes in HadCRUT3 global temperature dataset, which is considered the gold-standard by the IPCC and the world's scientists.
The chart's starting point is January 1880, which represents the first data point (pink circle) of a 30-year temperature change, from January 1850 to January 1880. The chart's last plot point (green circle) is the difference from December 1982 to December 2012.
The black curve is the simple 5-year average (60-month moving) of all the 30-year changes. And the light grey curve is the plot of monthly CO2 atmospheric CO2 levels from 1880 through 2012.
Per this gold-standard empirical evidence, one can safely conclude the following:
#1. CO2 levels have consistently increased, with short pauses, over this extended period.
#2. 30-year temperature changes peaked both in 1939 and 1998, and then subsequently declined indicating a more powerful-than-CO2, non-greenhouse gas influence at work.
#3. Higher CO2 levels are not causing runaway, accelerating, rapid, irreversible, dangerous and/or tipping point long-term global temperature changes, which is contrary to all conventional and "consensus" IPCC expert opinions and their climate models.
#4. The simple 5-year moving average curve during the very recent past indicates a declining period for 30-year changes, possibly signalling an extended cooling phase is upon us.
#5. The 30-year temperature changes, prior to the post-1960 consumer/industrial surge in human CO2 emissions, rival those of the modern up/down 30-year changes, in terms of amount, duration and speed.
#6. Long-term (30 year) global temperature change appears to follow an up and down pattern - an oscillation phenomenon, so to speak, that occurs regardless of CO2 levels.
#7. Since this oscillation is not being produced by higher CO2 levels, then some natural phenomenon is likely driving long-term global temperature change, overwhelming the apparent trivial impact of CO2.
There are any number of natural climate phenomena working singularly, or in concert, that are responsible for climate change. An example of one such natural pattern is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) that is adjacent and shown here.
As can be seen, the AMO pattern is curiously similar to the above 30-year global temperature change plot of peaks and valleys.
As NOAA scientists have established, this powerful, climate-changing oscillation has been identified in historical paleoclimate proxies, confirming that human CO2 has nothing to do with it.
And the AMO is just one of many natural climate forces. Another powerful, natural climate-change phenomena that dwarfs the global warming impact of human CO2 is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which is best explained by this expert.
The United Nations IPCC climate agency has a gold-standard dataset used since 2007 to make global climate predictions - the HadCRUT3 gold-standard confirms that the predicted dangerous global warming is non-existent, and unequivocally, that CO2 is not the world's thermostat
Taxpayer-funded climate scientists and ideologue politicians have continuously predicted that the globe will suffer from dangerous global warming; and they claimed that human CO2 emissions acted as the world's climate thermostat.
As the adjacent chart reveals, the IPCC's own temperature gold-standard (HadCRUT3) refutes the "experts" and "elites" hysterical, anti-science prognostications:
#1. The global temperature dataset clearly indicates that the world has exhibited a slight global cooling trend since the spike in temps from the super El Niño of 1997/98. That's 180 months (15 years) of non-dangerous global warming.
#2. The chart's thin black line is a plot of the monthly changes in CO2 levels. The correlation between monthly temperature and CO2 changes ranges from slim to none - this supposed thermostat relation of CO2 to temperatures has a ludicrously low R2 of 0.01. CO2 is not only not a "thermostat," it's likely not even a major climate forcing, per the actual data.
#3. While global temperatures have been slightly cooling, the global changes in monthly CO2 levels have been slightly increasing (note smooth grey curve - a 2nd order fit).
#4. Simply stated, this actual IPCC gold-standard empirical evidence robustly refutes all the anti-science predictions/claims of climate "experts" and alarmist "elites."
And, as we are currently witnessing, the green-sharia, anti-human fanatics are now having to do some serious crawling-back from their previous anti-CO2 agenda and bogus-science blinders to the climate reality.
NASA's famous in-house climate quack rivals notorious doomsday cultists, such as Harold Camping and others - as the empirical evidence reveals, James Hansen's headline grabbing prediction of boiling oceans, from too much CO2, is from the theater of propaganda absurdity
James Hansen and his disciples at NASA's climate research agency (GISS) have become infamous for their climate doomsday predictions since the late 1980s. (Many of those end-of-the-world type predictions can be found here.)
Likely, the most absurd, recently published, fear-mongering NASA's Hansen prediction was that the oceans will soon be boiling from increased atmospheric CO2 levels (click on James Hansen picture for video of the "boiling" prediction).
Depending on the salinity of the given area's ocean/sea water, the boiling point will range from greater than 212F degrees to 215F degrees. After decades of massive human CO2 emissions how close are the oceans' temperatures to NASA's doomsday boiling?
It's not even a disaster-twinkle in Harold Camping's eyes.
The above chart plots the impressive growth of CO2 levels since 1880, and the associated, yet incredibly small increase of the oceans' temperature (°F). For context, the charts include plots of NOAA's global, N. and S. Hemisphere, U.S. continental and the Met Office's Central England temperatures.
None of these plots depict the "runaway" warming predicted by Hansen (note the near-boiling 210°F on left axis).
To be more specific, for the oceans to do a James Hansen boil, they need to warm by only some 140F degrees. But over the last 132 years, they have warmed less than one degree - not exactly "runaway" as envisioned by NASA.
Additionally, if we are on the path to runaway boiling oceans, the UK's home island would be experiencing some very hellish warming in recent times. Although the Central England temperatures have increased since 1880, over the last 15 years they are declining at a -7.90°F/century rate - that's right, a minus 7.9 degrees per century.
There is hope though. Like Harold Camping, James Hansen appears to be backtracking from his green-religion, non-scientific predictions.
The IPCC, and its legion of green-sharia scientists on the taxpayer dole, have publicly stated that the climate sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 levels is high, with a predicted result of dangerous accelerated warming - the NOAA global temperature dataset proves that climate sensitivity is likely a fraction of IPCC's estimate
The UN's IPCC continues to claim that the climate is highly sensitive to CO2 levels. This high sensitivity, in combination with the mythical positive feedbacks, will thus supposedly increase global warming some 4 to 6 degrees centigrade by year 2100.
However, the actual temperature data do not support this speculative AGW hypothesis. If the climate was highly sensitive to CO2, then the adjacent plot of data would look substantially different.
Because of the huge increase over the 50 years ending 2012, the global temperature increase should be significantly larger than the previous 50-year period ending 1962. Clearly, levels of atmospheric CO2 are not as all powerful as the IPCC fear-mongering would have us believe.
In fact, despite an increase of CO2 levels that was 4 times larger than the previous 50-year period, the global temperatures ending 2012 increased less, suggesting that the climate sensitivity to CO2 ranges from lame to very weak.
This is not the only evidence that the IPCC's exaggerated claim of high sensitivity is scientifically suspect: see here, here, here and here.
Scientifically corrupt IPCC scientists, and their disgraceful, pathetic parrots in the MSM, have claimed that global warming has been rapid and accelerating over recent years due to CO2 - in fact, these claims are easily dis-proven by the latest NOAA research
Unsubstantiated claims of rapid global warming have been made by a variety of climate scientists and journalists without any proof.
As in the past, the latest 2012 year-end data from NOAA confirms that the feared CO2-caused accelerated warming is not climate science reality.
The adjacent chart is a plot of annual changes from calendar year to calendar year. Since the 1880s, annual changes have remained in a narrow band with no acceleration trend causing a continuous positive breakout from that historical band.
The 5-year average (blue curve) of annual changes reflects the stability of temperature changes, revealing no major impact from the ever-increasing levels of atmospheric CO2.
The IPCC predicted that global warming would result from increased atmospheric CO2 levels - however, since the beginning of the 1997 Super El Nino, global cooling has been the result
(click on image to enlarge)
The RSS satellite global temperature measurements indicate that the 1997-98 Super El Niño started from the low of April 1997. From that point, and all the way through July 2012, the global atmosphere has cooled - a total of 184 months. This cooling trend took place during a significant increase of atmospheric CO2 levels.
This slight cooling trend is opposite of what the IPCC (and NASA's James Hansen) predicted for global temperatures.
The IPCC prediction of rapid global warming is based on the hypothesis that human CO2 emissions would increase atmospheric CO2 greenhouse gas levels; the increase of greenhouse gases would allow more radiated heat to be retained; the retained heat would warm the atmosphere; and, the atmosphere would then warm the world's oceans and land surfaces. Such predicted warming would set in motion a "runaway tipping point" that would produce catastrophic climate disasters and a doomsday for civilization.
Instead, as the adjacent chart indicates, the lower atmosphere since 1997 (per the RSS satellite measurements) has actually been exhibiting a cooling trend, versus the the obvious warming trend for the January 1980 to April 1997 period (red curve on chart).
Like the RSS dataset, the HadCRUT global temperatures also exhibit almost the same warming/cooling dichotomy. What is very apparent in both datasets is that the '97-98 Super El Niño shifted temperatures up to a new level, which then global temperatures resumed their normal variation around. Subsequent to this temperature range shift, growing CO2 emissions have not caused the long predicted "global warming."
#1. Satellite measurements reveal both a modest global warming and very slight global cooling period since 1980.
#2. Levels of atmospheric CO2 appear to have no consistent influence on global temperatures since 1980.
#3. Global warming is not "irrefutable," "unequivocal," "rapidly increasing," "accelerating," "incontrovertible," "indisputable," "unquestionable" nor "unprecedented." It's quite the opposite of all these qualifiers.
#4. Any IPCC scientist, climate researcher, academic, government bureaucrat, journalist and pundit who states and/or implies that any 'qualifier' in point #3 is the 'truth,' is, quite honestly, a serious liar. The empirical evidence is the scientific truth, not a person's blatant verbal misrepresentation.
#5. Politicians and celebrities who state and/or imply that any 'qualifier' in point #3 is the 'truth' is at best, stuck-on-stupid. Unfortunately, that seems to be the dominating characteristic of individuals involved in the political, sports and entertainment worlds. (Although, with politicians it may not be the case of being stupid, instead it may be more of a case of being criminally corrupt in order to enrich himself via "green" projects - think Solyndra.)
#6. As the satellite data show, the hot summer in the U.S. was not a result of global warming (as suggested by many covered by points #5 and #6) since global atmospheric temperatures during May, June and July were not extreme nor unusual.
Obama's green fundamentalists took control over the EPA and have since been on a jihad to destroy the coal industry and other fossil fuel sectors - but like so many religious fanatics, Obama's extremists ignore the actual science
Read here. As has been clearly demonstrated with empirical evidence, recent global warming (or lack of) is not the result of increasing atmospheric CO2 levels.
So, if CO2 is not the principal driver of global temperature changes, then what is?
The adjacent chart is a plot of daytime high temperatures and solar radiation. The very visible close relationship between solar energy and the maximum temperatures is very obvious, and is irrefutable - it's the sun, stupid!
With most scientists now recognizing that the jihad against CO2 emissions was not really supportable by the empirical evidence, new scientific efforts are being conducted to determine what are the major factors influencing global warming/cooling. And, the solar influence now appears to be the major culprit.
In the realm of the political climate, both Romney and Ryan should be constantly bashing Obama and the Democrats over their destruction of the coal industry, and the anti-science green, fanatic jihad unleashed on the American economy. Driving the coal industry to bankruptcy and curtailing oil drilling across the U.S. was a completely needless hatchet attack on economic growth by Obama's EPA.
The IPCC's (and NASA's) CO2-centric climate models are completely unable to predict global temperatures with any degree of accuracy - scientists now confirm that increases in atmospheric CO2 actually follow increases in global temperatures, which is opposite of what climate models assume
Read here. It is common knowledge that global temperatures have not increased over the last 15 years despite massive new amounts of human CO2 emissions. And it is well known that the IPCC climate "experts" have been massively befuddled by this.
The current global climate models are dominated by the the greenhouse gas CO2 input. As the IPCC explains, their models can't accurately predict temperatures without knowing the atmospheric CO2 levels. Of course, recent experience clearly demonstrates the lack of models' temperature predictive skill even when the levels of CO2 are known.
It is now obvious that the climate models' assumption that CO2 levels dictate global warming/cooling is seriously amiss.
The European team of Humlum et al. has examined both the CO2 and temperature datasets and has determined that temperature changes actually occur before the corresponding CO2 level change. This is depicted in the adjacent chart of dataset plots.
"An important new paper published today in Global and Planetary Change finds that changes in CO2 follow rather than lead global air surface temperature and that "CO2 released from use of fossil fuels have little influence on the observed changes in the amount of atmospheric CO2" The paper finds the "overall global temperature change sequence of events appears to be from 1) the ocean surface to 2) the land surface to 3) the lower troposphere," in other words, the opposite of claims by global warming alarmists that CO2 in the atmosphere drives land and ocean temperatures." [Ole Humlum, Kjell Stordahl, Jan-Erik Solheim 2012: Global and Planetary Change] Scientist Ole Humlum's climate web site
Conclusions: The lack of predictive skill of the IPCC's climate models is likely due to their being dominated by atmospheric CO2 level inputs (CO2-centric). The actual empirical evidence indicates that changing CO2 levels are more a result of global temperature changes than changes in human CO2 emissions.
The overall global temperature change sequence of events appears to be from 1) the ocean surface to 2) the land surface to 3) the lower troposphere.
Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging about 11–12 months behind changes in global sea surface temperature.
Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 9.5-10 months behind changes in global air surface temperature.
Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging about 9 months behind changes in global lower troposphere temperature.
Changes in ocean temperatures appear to explain a substantial part of the observed changes in atmospheric CO2 since January 1980.
CO2 released from use of fossil fuels have little influence on the observed changes in the amount of atmospheric CO2, and changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emissions.
A high climate sensitivity to growing human CO2 emissions is absolutely essential to the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW or AGW) hypothesis - the climate empirical evidence refutes the high sensitivity claim though
(click image to enlarge)
In climate science reality, the actual global temperature observations over the last 15 years do not support the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) hypothesis.
Central to the CAGW hypothesis is that increasing human CO2 emissions will raise atmospheric levels of this greenhouse gas. Subsequent to the atmospheric CO2 increase, global warming will automatically and consistently increase.
Once the globe starts warming, the AGW hypothesis states that a high climate sensitivity to CO2 will initiate a dangerous positive feedback loop: the rising temperatures will increase water evaporation; the powerful atmospheric greenhouse gas water vapor will then increase; then global temperatures will increase even more, the melting of ice sheets occurs; thus, less solar energy will be reflected into space; and global temperatures will then increase even more; and etc., etc.
This powerful and relentless positive feedback loop will produce unequivocal, robust, significant, unprecedented, irrefutable, rapid and accelerating global warming. At least that is what every "expert" climate model based on the CAGW hypothesis predicted.
But did the above prediction/scenario/forecast happen? Nope, not even close. In fact, the opposite happened.
The adjacent chart depicts the last 30 years of increasing CO2 levels and global temperature trends. This actual climate evidence is sliced into two time periods: the 15 years ending July 1997 and the 15 years ending July 2012. The real world evidence reveals the following:
1. The far right column (grey) shows that CO2 levels were increasing at a 147 ppm per century rate by the end of July 1997. Actual CO2 levels were at the 364 ppm mark.
2. For the 15 years ending 1997, global temperatures were increasing at +1.08°C per century trend (red column).
3. Since July 1997, the growth of CO2 levels has increased to a 197 ppm per century trend, and now stands at the 395 ppm mark.
4. After 30 years of increasing human CO2 emissions and faster growing atmospheric CO2 levels, the last 15 years have witnessed the previous global warming morph into a global cooling tend (blue column) at a -0.24°C per century trend.
Conclusions: The climate scientist and climate models that have long predicted catastrophic global warming from CO2 emissions are proven to be undeniably incorrect. The AGW hypothesis does not reflect climate reality. The actual empirical evidence proves the CAGW hypothesis to be irretrievably wrong. The climate sensitivity to CO2 levels is, at best, tiny. The natural forces of the climate will produce negative feedbacks that completely overwhelm the hypothetical CAGW positive feedback loop. Thus, while CO2 emissions will likely induce a slight warming, the natural climatic forces will dictate and dominate our climate future.
Finally, any "science" association, journalist, politician, celebrity, weatherperson, bureaucrat and pundit who says that dangerous global warming is happening, is unequivocal, is rapid, is irrefutable, is unprecedented, is robust, is significant and is accelerating can only be one thing: he or she is a pathological liar.
The latest NOAA/NCDC temperature dataset indicates that a long-term cooling trend for the continental U.S. persists. The last 15 years are shown in the chart below (180 months ending 5/31/2012)
While the recent U.S. higher temperatures during early 2012 (as seen in the above chart) has been very enjoyable, how does it compare with past U.S. temperature changes over the long-term? And, is the 2012 U.S. warming a result of human CO2 emissions as some chicken-little pundits have claimed?
The chart below adds some context to help sort out how the recent warming compares to past U.S. temperature change.
See that red dot way over on the right side? That's May 2012. More specifically, that's the May 2012 increase in the U.S. temperatures over May 1997 - a 15-year period. The jagged red curve prior to the May 2012 red dot represents all the 15-year changes in temperature, calendar month to calendar month.
Plus the chart's blue curve is the 5-year average of those 180-month (15 years) temperature changes. Did you note that the current 5-year mean of long-term U.S. temperature change since 1910 is not exactly "unprecedented"? Did you note the average is not exactly "accelerating"? And btw, did you note that the blue curve was higher in the 1930's than during the last two decades?
And, what about those black dots? Oh, that's right, they represent the actual atmospheric CO2 levels, which are supposedly causing unprecedented, unequivocal, accelerating, rapid and very dangerous long-term warming increases.
Hey, don't be a slacker now - look closely at the evidence in the bottom chart. Can you see how CO2 is causing rapid and unequivocal long-term global warming increases since 1910? Don't worry, we can't see it either. (The light grey curve is the 5-year average of CO2 level increases.)
We pose the above rhetorical questions for a reason. It's always important to consider the actual temperature empirical evidence. Then compare it to what is reported. Then put it into context, from both a long-term temperature change and CO2 perspective.
Although the U.S. (and the rest of the globe) has warmed from the bottom of the Little Ice Age, the long-term warming is not accelerating dangerously from increased greenhouse gases, be it CO2 or other. That is the objective determination from the data.
The final conclusion? Essentially, the actual temperature change evidence is contrary to the scary global/U.S. "warming" stories and climate change fear-mongering that the NY Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angles Times, CNN, NBC and other mainstream press outlets religiously (fanatically?), without due diligence, deliver.
The global warming science facts do not support the climate doomsday scientists' contention that human CO2 emissions are causing dangerous long-term ocean warming - the empirical evidence is 'unequivocal' about this
(click on image to enlarge)
Doomsday climate scientists would have everyone believe that human CO2 emissions causes long-term climate change in form of "accelerating" warming, especially the oceans. If this were the case, then it should be easy to prove using the global ocean temperature observations from NOAA.
As the adjacent chart depicts, while atmospheric CO2 levels have steadily increased (black dots), the plot of the 30-year change in ocean temperatures (jagged blueish curve) exhibits wide variation.The smooth blue and grey curves represent polynomial fitted trends to the observations, clearly demonstrating that trends in CO2 and ocean warming are not closely related - well, truth be told, they're moving in very opposite directions.
From these opposing trends, one could safely surmise that the correlation between CO2 levels and long-term ocean warming is, in fact, not robust, but rather weak.
Moving on, the red curve is a 5-year average of the long-term temperature change, which obviously indicates the current 5-year average of change being well below previous values, and is now declining. The red curve also reveals that the historical temperature change prior to the 1950's was significantly higher and actually accelerated faster than that experienced over the last three decades (the modern doomsday "global warming").
Conclusions from the actual NOAA empirical evidence: Long-term ocean warming has likely not been a result of human CO2 emissions (a tiny addition to natural greenhouse gases). Long-term modern warming of the oceans is neither dangerous, rapid, accelerating, unprecedented nor unequivocal. Starting around 1998, the modern ocean warming stabilized and slowly morphed into a cooling phase. The global warming science facts are irrefutable, the inconsistent, sporadic long-term ocean warming since the early 1900's does not support the climate doomsday scientists - unequivocally, the empirical evidence mocks them.
Note: The above chart plots the long-term ocean temperature changes (30-year changes). For example, the temperature change datapoint for April 2012 represents the change from April 1982 to April 2012. Likewise, the January 1910 datapoint represents the temperature change from January 1880 to January 1910.
The IPCC "consensus" on climate change causes has not stood well, either by the test of empirical observations nor by the newer science research - essentially, the original "consensus" has proven to be a very weak gruel
(click image to enlarge)
Read here. Among scientists, it has become common knowledge that the IPCC's climate models continue to be divorced from reality (see chart left). The models are the foundation of "consensus" that the IPCC and climate doomsday scientists fabricated in an attempt to stifle debate.
As the adjacent updated IPCC chart shows, the recent years of non-warming, despite a massive increase in human CO2 emissions, is an empirical evidence consensus of a scientifically lame AGW hypothesis promulgated by the IPCC.
While the empirical evidence continues to corroborate the failure of the IPCC "consensus" and its climate models, scientists push on with their research to better understand what are the real climate change causes that would drive global temperature change, be it warming or cooling.
Indeed, a lot of new effort has been focused on atmospheric aerosols and their impact on global temperatures, which everyone agreed the IPCC was woefully ignorant of. The most recent scientific efforts have proven conclusively that aerosols are a major influence on temperatures and climate change - unfortunately, there is no "consensus" as to direction and degree of influence.
"New papers are constantly popping up in scientific journals discovering some amazing new impact of dirty air...“Researchers have yet to fully analyse the new results,”...“these are just the first wave of a deluge in modelling data.”...“This is fundamentally new science,”...“The new generation of models is changing the kinds of questions we face as scientists.”...It seems that climate modelers are finding surprises galore with their new play toys—warming and cooling, drying and increased precipitation—all linked to aerosols...Inundated by a wave of new results, confusion reigns. “What we need now is to really understand what the models are doing, and why they differ,”..."
Adding to the major aerosol confusion that climate science now has, is the remaining huge and original unsolved mystery of CO2. Yes, CO2 and its associated 'carbon cycle' still remains a significant mystery beyond scientists grasp.
The newest research confirms there is a 'Carbon [CO2] Puzzle' that scientists just can't explain. This remains a bold admission that historical climate change (in terms of CO2's impact) remains beyond the comprehension of the IPCC and its computers; and, likewise, climate change of the future science is still unable to solve the basic CO2 riddle due to a very fundamental lack of knowledge - "where the heck does CO2 go?".
Conclusions: The IPCC "consensus" on climate change causes (ie, human CO2 emissions) has become a non-consensus over recent years, as both the global temperature empirical evidence and new research on other climate impacts have substantially confirmed. While the IPCC and the doomsday client scientists cling bitterly to their one-dimensional, almost delusional CO2 fanaticism about climate change, the public and policymakers remain unconvinced.
The global warming science facts can often be so brutal for the climate-doomsday-from-CO2 alarmists >>> the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has determined that Asian pollution will warm the globe so much that it offsets any U.S. CO2 emission reductions
Read here. China and other Asian countries produce a lot of black carbon (soot) and other pollutants that are belched into the atmosphere in prodigious quantities. The scientists at NCAR utilized their global climate models to analyze the impact of all that filth on global temps.
The impact of these pollutants will be quite high: a +0.4°C increase of summer temps over the entire U.S. This warming happens regardless of any U.S. reductions in CO2 emissions. And to drive home this point, climate models indicate that if the U.S. were to reduce its emissions by 80% the impact on U.S. temps would be a measly 0.075°C reduction - the Asian pollutant warming overwhelms the reduction due to less CO2.
"Comparing the amount of warming in the U.S. saved by reducing our greenhouse gas emissions by some 80% to the amount of warming added in the U.S. by increases in Asian black carbon (soot) aerosol emissions (at least according to Teng et al.) and there is no clear winner. Which points out the anemic effect that U.S. greenhouse gas reductions will have on the climate of the U.S. and just how easily the whims of foreign nations, not to mention Mother Nature, can completely offset any climate changes induced by our greenhouse gas emissions reductions."
The global warming science facts conclusions: Any attempt by the U.S. to massively reduce its CO2 emissions will be a total waste of money and effort as Asian pollution will easily offset that attempt. This NCAR analysis is eye-opening and should be seriously considered by America's policymakers. But it should be remembered that this analysis is based on global climate models, which have been incredibly ineffectual at predicting temperatures, let alone climate conditions across the world or in specific regions. And it should be pointed out that U.S. temperatures over the last 15 years have been on a cooling trend of minus 2 degrees (F) per century through April 2012 - for some reason, all those past Asian pollutants have not warmed the U.S.
The global warming science facts, black carbon is a major pollutant that not only kills thousands per year but has been found to be a major contributor to increasing global temperatures - a new peer reviewed study confirms findings of previous research
Read here. While climate doomsday scientists and chicken-little pundits wasted everyone's time and money about catastrophic destruction from CO2-induced global warming and climate change, real scientists continued their investigations of the climate and what drives it. Latest research confirms what the National Academy of Sciences published way back in 2000.
A new study by Allen et al. has determined that black carbon and other modern pollutants have been major contributors to temperature warming, which has enhanced the expansion of the tropics into higher latitudes. This research also confirms that the IPCC's insistence that human CO2 is the principal driver of climate change is seriously wrong, beside being hopelessly outdated.
"Observational analyses have shown the width of the tropical belt increasing in recent decades as the world has warmed...we use a climate model with detailed aerosol physics to show that increases in heterogeneous warming agents—including black carbon aerosols and tropospheric ozone—are noticeably better than greenhouse gases at driving expansion, and can account for the observed summertime maximum in tropical expansion. Mechanistically, atmospheric heating from black carbon and tropospheric ozone has occurred at the mid-latitudes, generating a poleward shift of the tropospheric jet, thereby relocating the main division between tropical and temperate air masses." [Robert J.Allen, Steven C. Sherwood, Joel R. Norris, Charles S. Zender 2012: Nature]
Conclusions: The global warming science facts - black carbon, a major modern pollutant, is causing global warming and an expansion of the tropics in the Northern Hemisphere. Latest research confirms that human CO2 emissions are not the only human driver of global temperatures. Of course, this new research does not explain why global temperatures have fallen over the last 15 years, unless there is now less black carbon pollution.
The global warming science facts continue to robustly challenge the "consensus" global warming hypothesis - despite prodigious amounts of CO2 emissions, a global cooling trend exists
(click on image to enlarge)
Here is the typical plot of the impact of CO2 emissions on global temperatures. As a change in pace, a different depiction of "global warming" is adjacent.
The left side of this chart reveals the current 15-yr per century global temperature change trend (-0.12 degree), as of April 2012 - the blue bar near the bottom. The grey bar represents the massive amount of human CO2 emissions released into the atmosphere over the last 15 calendar years.
In contrast, for the previous 15 years ending April 1997, the red bar represents the per century temperature change trend (+1.08 degree) and partially hidden grey bar the total human CO2 emissions released during the calendar year span of 1982 - 1996.
The data portrayed in this chart, when combined, represents the last 30 years (360 consecutive months, starting May 1982 and ending April 2012) of human CO2 emissions and global temperature change.
Conclusions: The global warming science facts do not support the IPCC's catastrophic AGW hypothesis that is continuously promulgated by bureaucrats and paid-off scientists. A global cooling trend has developed despite the IPCC's climate model predictions and the immense human CO2 emissions over the last 15 years (a 1.7 times increase over the 15-yr period ending in 1996) . Catastrophic, dangerous, unequivocal, accelerating and unprecedented global warming are non-existent as of April 2012. In summary, the data strongly and irrefutably suggest that human CO2 emissions are not a powerful greenhouse gas and that, instead, natural climate forces are the likely primary drivers of global temperature changes.
Connect-The-Dots: Global warming statistics have been heavily manipulated to conform to alarmist scientists expectations - wholesale fabrication takes place because of the infamous "the models told me to do it" rationale
Read here. The manipulation of temperature datasets, by climate alarmist scientists, to bolster the case for anthropogenic global warming has been discussed often at 'C3' and is even admitted to by those with close association to the Climategate fiascoes.
Phil Jones: ‘The instrumental records we examined seemed to be showing warmer temperatures than our computer models indicate should have occurred. We have therefore adjusted the instrumental record.’ (source here and here)
One of the simplest means to bolster the case for modern global warming, after 1950, is to "adjust" temperatures down (i.e. cool them) prior to 1950 - voila, modern global warming is enhanced by data manipulation alone. As can be seen in the above images for several individual EU climate stations, the blue lines represent the original temps and the red curves, pre-1950, the "cooling" adjustments for the period of 1920 to 1950 are obvious.
Conclusion: The over-the-top catastrophic global warming alarmist, anti-CO2 fanatic, Bill McKibben, asks us to connect the dots: global warming statistics are purposefully manipulated to establish faux modern global warming. Case closed.
Another connect-the-dots severe weather moment - real world empirical evidence from the leading tropical storm expert proves Nasa's James Hansen's prediction of increasing severe weather from human CO2 emissions to be bogus
(click image to enlarge)
The farcical 'connect-the-dots' campaign about "evil" CO2 is based on the non-scientific opinions and speculative predictions of both NASA's James Hansen and the UN's IPCC. Time and time again, their predictions, and those of other alarmists, are proven to be wrong.
The adjacent chart is another example of just how wrong the anti-CO2 alarmist crowd has been. Their prediction that increasing CO2 emissions would cause an increase in severe weather, such as tropical storms, is galactically incorrect. As a result, their doomsday predictive capabilities have become an internet joke.
And it's not just tropical storms predictions that have been this bad - it's every severe weather category that they've predicted CO2-induced catastrophic events for.
Conclusion: The connect-the-dots severe weather increase scenarios, due to higher CO2 atmospheric levels, just don't compute. Instead, the alarmist theory that CO2 causes bad weather events is kaput, buried under an empirical evidence avalanche. The IPCC, James Hansen and Bill McKibben could finally advance social justice if they would choose just to tell the truth, instead of their incessant, self-absorbed fearmongering.
The IPCC, and its grumpy band of Climategate alarmist scientists, predicted extreme climate change from human caused global warming - specifically, they predicted more frequent and more severe hurricane landfalls - they were wrong
Read here. The adjacent chart reveals the number of days between landfalls of a major hurricane striking the U.S. Since the last Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane strike, it's been 2,412 days and counting.
Since 1900, that is the longest span ever between major landfalls. And this significant climate science factoid is contrary to the IPCC "experts" whose consensus prediction categorically claimed that these large devastating storms would be more intense and more frequent, due to the increasing human CO2 emissions and global warming.
As is obvious to even the most fanatical believer in the CAGW religion, the scientific, empirical evidence readily documents that the CO2-alarmist "experts" have been spectacularly wrong.
With that said, the U.S. is long overdue for a major severe hurricane strike and it could well happen in 2012. Then again, it might not. Either way, the IPCC has proven to be incapable of any scientific predictive skill.
Per the now widely discredited CAGW hypothesis, which the UN's IPCC agency still promotes, rapidly increasing and catastrophic global temperatures are the result of human CO2 emissions - but as the global warming science facts produced by the U.S. NOAA agency confirms, accelerating and dangerous warming is not happening
(click on image to enlarge)
Over the first four months of 2012, the continental U.S. has experienced very warm and enjoyable temperatures. Yet, despite the warming of the U.S., the rest of the globe experienced temperatures below average, as the chart depicts.
The adjacent chart plots the average temperature anomaly for the first four months over the last 17 years ("why 17?" you ask) and the average CO2 level for those same four months. The green curve represents the five-year average of the temperature anomalies and the black CO2 curve is also a five-year average.
Obviously, over the last 17 years, hundreds of billions of tons of human CO2 emissions from consumption of fossil fuels has caused the atmospheric CO2 levels to increase dramatically. Yet global temperatures are not rapidly warming but instead have been basically flat to a minor cooling over that time period.
Conclusion: The global warming science facts indicate that human CO2 emissions do not cause rapid and catastrophic warming. This empirical evidence from the NOAA climate agency is unequivocal and irrefutable - the world is not facing a climate change, global temperature crisis due to soccer moms driving minivans.
When determining the rate of global sea level rise, the best method is to conduct a tide gauge station data analysis - latest analysis reveals claims of "accelerating" sea level rise to be totally bogus
Read here. Multiple "scientific" personalities seeking fame, fortune and influence (such as the likes of Hansen, Cullen and Rahmstorf) have attempted to frighten the public and policymakers by stating that global warming was causing an acceleration of global sea level rise. Depending on the given personality, they predict that recent "acceleration" will cause sea levels to increase anywhere from 4 feet to 75 feet by 2100.
Empirically speaking, these "predictions" are utter nonsense with literally no facutal basis - and, btw, that's why exceptionally lazy and/or amazingly stupid NY Times and Washington Post "journalists" just love these hysterical claims.
Per the actual tide gauge data plots shown above though, it is more than obvious that the readers of the mainstream press have been significantly mislead by the catastrophic global warming hucksters. The chart on the left represents annual sea level change since 1900. The red line is the 10-year average.
One does not have to be a climate scientist to realize that this chart unequivocally reveals a pattern of constant annual variation in sea levels with absolutely zero acceleration.
The plot on the right, examines the 10-year average in even more more detail. Since 1900, the trend of the 10-yr average actually shows a deceleration, not an acceleration of sea level rise. Using the 10-yr average at the end of 2011 as the sea rise gospel, by year 2100, sea levels would only increase by some 7 inches - not exactly the millions of "climate refugees" type of catastrophe (another spectacularly wrong AGW huckster prediction) that the MSM has been caught parroting without due diligence.
Conclusion: The real world empricial evidence clearly exposes the global warming (AGW) catastrophic hucksterism that James Hansen et al. practice. Paul Homewood provided the above analysis of tide gauge station data analysis, but his work is not the only research proving that modern global sea level rise is modest and not accelerating in a catastrophic manner.
'Connect the dots' global warming is a propaganda campaign being conducted by Bill McKibben per James Hansen's "climate science" - empirical measurements confirm Hansen's predicted tropical hotspot has not happened, it's a 'coldspot' instead
Climate alarmist James Hansen has long predicted the catastrophic tipping point of global temperatures from human CO2 emissions. His predictions include the seas will soon be boiling and a significant increase of extreme weather events, due to the excessive warming of the tropical atmosphere.
The excessive warming of the atmosphere over the Tropics is referred to as the AGW 'hotspot' and is the key signature of anthropogenic (by CO2 greenhouse gas) global warming.
Actual temperature measurements of the tropical atmosphere, as shown above, clearly indicate that the catastrophic 'hotspot' does not exist. Additionally, empirical evidence has the tropical atmosphere cooling over the last 15 years, at a -1.2 degree rate by year 2100, which is exact opposite predicted by IPCC climate models and the "experts," such as James Hansen.
Conclusion: Bill McKibben's infamous connect-the-dots global warming is a propaganda farce at best. The AGW signature tropical 'hotspot' does not factually exist; ergo, trillions of tons of human CO2 emissions has not caused a hotspot, boiling oceans or extreme weather events
Read here. The predicted "accelerating" sea level rise has been a fearmongering staple of the IPCC's global warming alarmists and the mainstream press for decades. For pure hysteria sake, nothing beats the image of flooding populous coastal areas with the intent to frighten the public.
Unfortunately for the alarmists, the empirical evidence does not support their grossly speculative predictions from discredited climate models.
Firstly, the "accelerating" global sea level rise has not taken place as multiple research studies have documented.
Secondly, the alarmist creed that the melting of Greenland's glaciers would cause devastating ocean rises has been completely debunked by a new peer reviewed study on some 200+ glaciers on the world's largest island.
"...titled “21st Century Evolution of Greenland Outlet Glacier Velocities” [Moon et al.] examined the flow characteristics from nearly 200 glaciers across Greenland for the period 2000-2010 as analyzed using synthetic aperture radar data collected from various satellites...And what they found...was that the patterns of flow rate changes across Greenland were complex, both in space and time. Glaciers that were accelerating during a few years were found to be decelerating in others. Some accelerating glaciers were found in close proximity to other glaciers that were decelerating..."Finally, our observations have implications for recent work on sea level rise...Our wide sampling of actual 2000 to 2010 changes shows that glacier acceleration across the ice sheet remains far below these estimates, suggesting that sea level rise associated with Greenland glacier dynamics remains well below the low-end scenario (9.3 cm [3.7 inches] by 2100) at present...Our result is consistent with findings from recent numerical flow models."" [Twila Moon, Ian Joughin, Ben Smith, Ian Howat 2012: Science]
Conclusion: Accelerating global sea level rise from melting glaciers is not happening as predicted. The retreat of Greenland's glaciers is not a major contributor to sea level increases and there exists no empirical evidence that this will change by year 2100.
The ever growing global warming science facts continue to make a shambles of the IPCC's and MSM's case that catastrophic global warming is ravaging Earth and humanity - the lies, myths and hysteria crumble under evidentiary weight
(click on images to enlarge)
The UN's IPCC's Climategate scientists and the mainstream media have been at the forefront of a concerted effort to both mislead and frighten policymakers and the public about CO2 emissions and hypothetical catastrophic results from modern global warming.
The perversion of climate science and the past complicity of the MSM in global warming alarmism propaganda is not only stunning but amazingly continues, despite all empirical evidence contrary to the fabricated alarmism.
Click on the rightmost image and read what the mainstream press recently wrote, in reference to hysterical alarmism. Now read what really happened. The simple facts are, one cannot trust any science "reporting" done by the MSM, let alone its coverage of global warming. For actual global warming and climate change facts and objective analysis, the higher quality information sources are here.
The leftmost image reveals the current condition of the modern "accelerating" global warming that both the IPCC and MSM claim is happening. This objective empirical evidence (from NASA / GISS - James Hansen's - climate research unit clearly indicates that over the last 15 years, through April 2012, that global warming is basically non-existent and that human CO2 has had little impact.
Finally, the damning revelations grow in the case of the bogus 'hockey stick' science that was perpetrated by the IPCC and the MSM - that science being that modern warming was "unprecedented" versus prior historical periods. The middle chart now confirms that the perversion of climate science for the glory of global warming alarmism was recklessly pursued, which is unequivocally corroborated by this newest evidence. Past historical temperature charts.
Conclusion: Global warming science facts have completely demolished the lies, myths and hysteria of the IPCC and the MSM. Yet, despite the overwhelming evidence, these "institutions" don't falter in their pursuit of a political agenda based on falsehoods. For an expanding cornucopia of reasons, no longer does either institution deserve the belief or trust of the public.
It's another connect the dots moment - climate model failure is standard operating procedure for NASA's James Hansen as empirical evidence confirms his abysmal failure at global warming predictions
(click on images to enlarge)
This first chart establishes that the actual growth of CO2 emissions has not only continued as 'business as usual' since 1988, it in fact has exceeded the BAU growth rate handsomely during recent years.
This second chart plots the actual observed annual temperatures (NASA/GISS & HadCRUT) versus the climate model predictions of global warming made by James Hansen of NASA. Even to the casual observer, the abysmal failure of climate model predictions is staggering.
The green curve is the 'business as usual' NASA global warming prediction if 1988 levels of CO2 emission growth continued (Scenario 'A'). The green dots represent actual NASA annual global temperatures. The red dot is what Hansen predicted for 2011 temperatures - the gap between the green and red 2011 dots represent the huge prediction error.
The aqua curve represents Hansen's Scenario 'C' for global temperatures if the world had completely restricted CO2 emission growth by year 2000 - that never happened as CO2 growth went beyond BAU growth since 1988.
This third chart is a plot of the HadCRUT global temperatures over the last 15 years through March 2012. The HadCRUT dataset is the IPCC's 'gold standard.' Clearly, global temperatures over the last 180 months have not warmed as predicted by NASA's climate model (nor as predicted by any other "consensus" climate model). Huge global warming prediction errors will continue as long as computer models that are primarily based on levels of CO2 emissions are utilized.
Conclusion: Connect the dots climate model failure is not a 'roll of the dice' - it is a known, glaring global warming prediction bias that is significantly robust. Since this is a 'known known,' as a precautionary principle decision, James Hansen et al. should be retired from NASA's climate modeling research unit. Why?
When known failed climate scientist(s) begets known bad climate science that then leads to known bad economic and energy policies, then a humane precautionary principle is required to remove the failed scientist(s) prior to a tipping point of economic damage to society being reached. Or, in other words, fire the hysterical idiot - he's responsible for an incredible misallocation of science research resources since the 80's, and more recently, the incredibly crippling regulation/energy policies of the Obama administration.
Since Bill McKibben urges everyone to connect-the-dots, share the link to this 'C3' article with all your Facebook, Twitter, email and LinkedIn friends and contacts.
The fanatical green, anti-CO2 activist Bill McKibben has urged everyone to 'connect the dots' - so be it - HadCRUT researchers did just that and confirmed that global warming morphed to global cooling despite huge increases in human CO2 emissions
(click on image to enlarge)
It's the last day of April 2012 and Phil Jones just released the March global temperature information. This latest update confirms that global temperatures are not "accelerating" nor "unequivocally" warming due to CO2 emissions.
As can be seen, the adjacent chart reflects the recent global cooling phenomenon.
Truth be told, the new global data clearly show that global temps are little influenced by CO2 levels. Plus, the over-hyped global warming is causing climate change alarmism has essentially no merit, per the data, thus falsifying Bill McKibben's entire career as an anti-CO2 crusader.
This newest empirical evidence affirms that highly paid (by the taxpayer) and arrogant climate scientists, and their billion dollar computer models, are often wrong, big time. Anti-science activists like McKibben would do well to show a little more humility about mother nature and also express at least an ounce of skepticism when listening to bureaucrat scientists with an agenda.
Conclusion: Connect the dots global warming does not exist and most certainly is not causing normal "climate change" weather events. If bad weather is happening more frequently, then activists might carefully examine the actual temeprature data and finally start asking if cooling is driving weather events.
Runaway greenhouse effect facts (or lack thereof) - while James Lovelock recently admits to hyping global warming alarmism, James Hansen still does crazy fearmongering - on video he predicts boiling oceans
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Look closely at the above - this is what "boiling" oceans look like after some 1.3 trillion tons of CO2 emissions poured into the atmosphere since 1850. As this tropical island paradise indicates, the long held belief of CO2 caused global warming is not supported by the tropic's data in the least, let alone supporting NASA's Hansen's recent crazy prediction of boiling oceans.
At the 2:12 minute mark of this recent video, Hansen does his crazy "boiling ocean" hype - it's a total disregard of facts and plausibility. Despite this craziness, there are scads of American coastal elites and lazy (stupid? gullible?) mainstream media types that buy into Hansen's ludicrous, catastrophic warming "science" predictions.
Still think there are runaway greenhouse effect facts that would lend credence to boiling oceans? Think again - expert tropical sea temperature measurements are conclusive - it ain't happening.
The Cook Island sea surface temperature data are another factual reality check - the tipping point of runaway global warming is not taking place and, without question, should be heavily ridiculed by all the legitimate science community and an objective press as the bogus scare hype it represents.
Runaway greenhouse effect facts: "Tipping point" global warming is not supported by the evidence; it's not even remotely plausible per the empirical data from the tropics; the world is not going to end from human-caused boiling oceans; and, NASA's James Hansen is possibly crazy, with fame, fortune and the drooling love of the MSM press lapdogs.
Note: Black dots in both charts above represent monthly CO2 levels. Sea surface temperatures plotted represent the longest continuous monthly measurements (without any monthly gaps) for both island locations.
The IPCC often claims its climate models are infallible and all knowing when it comes to the climate - new study reveals major climate modeling failure as they are unable to accurately simulate Greenland's past climate accurately
Read here. Greenland's current climate is heavily influenced by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which has a lengthy periodicity. The AMO is a natural climate variability phenomenon having a strong impact on North Atlantic's regional temperatures.
Recent analysis of the Greenland ice cores, by Chylek et al., has proven that the powerful AMO variability has been part and parcel of the Greenland climate for thousands of years, pushing temperatures higher and lower depending on the cycle point.
This natural, internal variability has no connection to external factors (forcings) such as the CO2 greenhouse gas.
In addition, the scientists determined that the climate models, favored by the IPCC and other non-empirical based scientists, are unable to faithfully mimic the ancient past AMO variability due to geographic differences (location differences) - a major climate modeling failure.
"...examine evidence of the AMO that is contained in several ice core records distributed across Greenland. The researchers were looking to see whether there were changes in the character of the AMO over different climatological periods in the past, such as the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period—periods that long preceded large-scale human aerosol emissions. And indeed they found some. The AMO during the Little Ice Age was characterized by a quasi-periodicity of about 20 years, while the during the Medieval Warm Period the AMO oscillated with a period of about 45 to 65 years...The observed intermittency of these modes over the last 4000 years supports the view that these are internal ocean-atmosphere modes, with little or no external forcing...However, the geographic variability of these periodicities indicated by ice core data is not captured in model simulations." [Petr Chylek, Chris Kenneth Folland, Leela Mary Frankcombe, Henk A. Dijkstra, Glen Lesins, Manvendra K Dubey 2012: Geophysical Research Letters]
Conclusion: The climate (ie, temperatures) of Greenland and other northern latitude areas has principally been driven by the periodicity of the Atlantic Multidecal Oscillation. The non-accurate simulation of this variability is another climate modeling failure that needs to be addressed.
The actual greenhouse gas facts are considered to be weak evidence of catastrophic global warming hypothesis by the vast majority of scientists - latest NASA-GISS empirical information confirms why
(click on image to enlarge)
The empirical evidence is so overwhelming that even the vast majority of alarmist climate scientists (over 97%) agree that the predicted "accelerating" global warming has been non-existent over the last 15 years.
The greenhouse gas facts are so starkly inconvenient for the IPCC that its apostles have had to resort to outright fraud. This has been the unfortunate result in their attempt to discredit any scientist who analyzes the actual facts, such as the adjacent plot of global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels.
"NYT's Revkin unloads on Peter Gleick! 'Gleick's use of deception in pursuit of his cause after years of calling out climate deception has destroyed his credibility and harmed others'...Revkin: 'One way or the other, ...That is his personal tragedy and shame (and I'm sure devastating for his colleagues, friends and family)'...His admitted acts of deception in acquiring the cache of authentic Heartland documents surely will sustain suspicion that he created the summary, which Heartland's leadership insists is fake'"
Conclusion: Greenhouse gas facts continue to be very weak empirical evidence of catastrophic CO2-induced global warming as hypothesized by the UN's IPCC and its associated "scientists."
Last 15 years (thru March) global temperature trend: +0.77 degree increase by 2100
Last 10 years (thru March) global temperature trend: +0.07 degree increase by 2100
If the current modern global cooling continues, winters in the Northern Hemisphere and summers in the Southern Hemispere could be colder - human CO2 emissions may actually be irrelevant
(click on images to enlarge)
From 1960 through 2011, over 1 trillion tons of CO2 have been emitted by humans from the burning of fossil fuels. The alarmist global warming theory requires that all those emissions still remain in the atmosphere - per the AGW alarmists, emissions will stay resident in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years.
But as the empirical evidence mounts, those trillions of tons of emissions are having a very small impact on global temperatures - so small, many of the world's best scientists are now questioning the relevancy of human CO2 on the world's climate. The previous modern warming has convincingly morphed into modern global cooling.
The top left chart is a plot of CO2 levels versus global temperatures for December, January and February. These months are typically the coldest for the Northern Hemisphere's winter and warmest for the Southern Hemisphere's summer. As the chart reveals, the last 15 years have seen significant cooling for these three months - including 1998, the trend is a minus 1.3 degrees/century.
The chart on the right, plots the Dec-Jan-Feb temperatures from 1960. The blue shaded areas represent the cooling periods that sandwich the modern warming that ended in 1998 with a kaboom - the Super El Niño of 1998.
Clearly, the massive 1 trillion+ tons of CO2 emissions are not making global temperatures "accelerate" prior to 1977, nor for the post-1998 period.
Conclusions: Modern cooling has prevailed during the December, January and February months since 1998; vast human CO2 emissions are not producing a global warming climate; and, the current cooling phase could switch to warming, or remain as is, depending on natural climatic fluctuations, regardless of CO2.
The IPCC's gold-standard dataset, HadCRUT, just announced the coldest February in the last 18 years - is this the end of modern global cooling?
(click on images to enlarge)
While many Americans welcomed a balmy-like February winter, this minor regional warming in some parts of the U.S. was overwhelmed by an otherwise large global cooling. Last time February global temperatures were colder than February 2012 was in 1994 - 18 years prior.
If this February cooling trend since 1994 continues, by 2100 February temperatures will be 0.7 degrees (C) cooler.
Modern global cooling for all months over the last 10 years through February has a more prominent per century trend of minus 1.1 degrees (C) (or a minus 0.95 degrees by 2100). It has now become a unanimous consensus that the 80's and 90's warming span turned into a cooling (be it slight) phase over the last 10 years.
Back to February. By examining past February temperatures since 1850 in more detail, it becomes clear that the HadCRUT dataset does not provide any empirical evidence of accelerated warming of February temperatures - temperature change is not constantly increasing, nor even positive every year for that matter.
Instead, as the top chart reveals, temperature change from one February to the next follows a consistent pattern of negative and positive changes, going back and forth, from 1850 to present day.
Now look closer at the chart (click to enlarge). That purple line is the linear trend of February temperature changes - it's flat, indicating that global February temperatures are not unequivocally warming. Look at the red curve - that's the 30-year simple average of February temperature change.
Note how the red curve has remained within a narrow volatility band ever since 1880 and all the way through February 2012. Again, clearly global February temperatures are not exhibiting the long-predicted accelerating temperature change regime that was going to make winters disappear in the Northern Hemisphere.
Interesting to note, as CO2 levels kept up their constant growth (black dots), when were the biggest positive and negative changes in February temperatures over the last 50 years? Way back in 1973 and 1974 (back-to-back) when the globe was experiencing its previous global cooling phase, not during the warming of the 80's and 90's.
And, what would the climate change statistics look like if there were actually accelerating temperature increases? The adjacent chart shows that: the last 10 years of actual February temperature change were altered to artificially increase by +0.25 degree every February. That level of accelerated change caused the purple trend line to slope up, and caused the red 30-year average curve to break out of its narrow band of variation, significantly.
Conclusions: HadCRUT global, the IPCC's gold-standard temperature dataset, indicates that the world has experienced a modern global cooling trend over the past 10 years; in addition, the month of February has experienced a cooling trend since February of 1994; the recent past cooling does not mean either future regional and/or global warming will not happen; the "powerful" greenhouse gas, CO2, turns out not to be very powerful ('lame' comes to mind); and, zero of the multi-billion dollar "expert" climate models predicted this modern global cooling period.
For additional temperature charts, visit these 'C3' pages: Modern, regional, historical and fabricating-fake temperature charts - hey, if you only look at the above charts you'll be accused of 'cherry picking' by someone!
Note: February 2012 tied February 2008 as the coldest February since 1994.
Latest global temperature info refutes the extraordinary 'cherry picking' of Tom Yulsman, well known CAGW climate model cultist advocate - the doomsday kool-aid "science" of fanatics green-disoriented individuals
(click on each image to enlarge)
To be honest, I've been waiting for almost three years to write about this article penned by Tom Yulsman, but never mentioned it until now. His recent, idiotic challenging article about 'cherry picking' by skeptics just flat-out exhibits the typical brain-gyrating hypocrisy mental process of your standard cult fanatic warmista, and then I got thinking about that old article.
"...I [Tom Yulsman] drank the cap-and-trade Kool-Aid, spiked by a generous portion of climate modeling."
No shit, Sherlock. Tom Yulsman fancies himself an environmental journalist, but in reality, he's a hack propagandist advocate for the climate doomsday cult tribe located in his region of Colorado. An propagandist advocate for a cargo cult unique style of climate-science where Kool-Aid appears to be the chosen elixir.
In his most recent article, he chooses to push the blatant propaganda misunderstanding that skeptics only 'cherry pick' their climate data, but then proceeds, in literal black and white, to demonstrate his superior skills as the ultimate 'cherry picking' CAGW cultist tribe spokesperson. Let's review:
Tom Yulsman, doomsday cultist advocate and cherry picking expert
Synopsis: Yulsman uses the first three weeks of March, 2012 as evidence that humans are causing global warming - "But over the very long run, the picture has been pretty clear: Humans are winning — as this March’s extraordinary weather suggests"...alrighty then, Tom.
First, talk about 'cherry picking'. This cultist advocate basis his whole article on a portion of a single freaking month
Second, the early March warmth was primarily located in certain regional areas of the U.S., not a global phenomenon - more convenient 'cherry picking'
Third, as the NASA global atmosphere temperature chart #1 shows, March through the 26th has not exhibited global temperatures out of the ordinary.
Fourth, as the HadCRUT global temperature charts #2-5 reveal, global warming has been modest, to non-existent over the last 30 years, depending on the given time span examined, despite the obvious 30-year, non-stop growth of CO2 levels.
Fifth, Yulsman exposes his amazing lack of climate science knowledge (cultist ignorance?) when he wonders about the following: "Watts up with the 17-year period." It's a 'you've-got-to-be-kidding' moment - this "science" journalist isn't even aware that a major CAGW climate modeler published a study in 2011 claiming that temperature benchmarks should be using 17 years as the measurement period. (Psssst...Tom, try googling "climate +17-years"...second item on first page of search. You're welcome. Say hello to Ben S. for me. Thanks.)
Sixth, he 'cherry picks' quotes from Jeff Masters, a known internet weather crackpot, who expounds on the March warming in Michigan, yet actual NOAA U.S. temperature data has March 1910 as warmer and that goes unmentioned.
Seventh, he 'cherry picks' a single study about the 2003 European heat wave that claims that event was a result of human factors, yet ignores all the other studies suggesting such heat waves are natural phenomenons.
Eighth, I'm not making this up, Yulsman 'cherry picks' a single, "renowned," cartoon video as his scientific evidence that humans are to blame for global warming - gee, I wonder if instead this video would help better explain AGW to Tom's erudite readers:
Ninth, knowing full well that the CAGW cultists scientists can't explain the lack of recent global warming over the last 15 years, Tom chooses to 'cherry pick' a single study that speculates that all the previous predicted warming from the climate models is really disappearing into the deep oceans. However, as our cult propagandist advocate fails to mention, all the empirical scientific evidence disproves that AGW alarmist speculation.
Tenth, going back to those 'cherry picked' first 3-weeks of March, 'Kool-Aid' Tom just happens to forget to speak of the previous 52-week period - and for good reason. Obviously, as the chart on the right shows, the CAGW fanatics faithful are notoriously reluctant to talk about those temperatures, which has the world monstrously cooling at a minus 18.3 degrees by 2100.
Note: Readers, please remember that linear trend figures used in the charts are not predictions! Also, the charts' blue curves are 2nd order polynomial trend fits as calculated by Excel.
Conclusion:Tom Yulsman, the 'cherry picking' expert and climate doomsday cultist advocate, reminds me of Harold Camping and all the other crazies eccentrics. In my mind's-eye, Tom even looks like Harold - yikes!
A plethora of temperature charts that CAGW cult tribe 'cherry pickers' always avoid: Modern, regional, historical and fabricating-fake temperature charts, and of course, an extensive list of severe weather events prior to the 1980's that the cultists always seem to forget about.
p.s. Update: Rest assured, image #6 above is not really Tom Yulsman! He is infinitely better looking and younger. And more than 'robustly' likely, he is a great guy; someone to go out have an after work beverage with and shoot the skeptics shit with - just don't let him 'cherry pick' the Kool-Aid drinks. :-)
AGW alarmist climate scientists predicted that increasing human CO2 emissions would cause an increase in water vapor with the result being a global warming tipping point - empirical evidence completely discredits that prediction
(click image to enlarge)
Read here. Very simply, for the IPCC's climate models predicted runway global warming to happen, there has to be a positive feedback from atmospheric CO2 that pushes the climate to a "tipping point." The positive feedback in the IPCC's computer models is an ever increasing atmospheric water vapor level (greenhouse gas) due to rising temperatures from CO2.
In the real world though, that positive feedback has not happened, as the adjacent chart of relative humidity (atmospheric water vapor) and global temperatures shows. And now, a new peer reviewed study in the prestigious Journal of Climate is confirming that the global warming tipping point hypothesis is without any empirical merit.
"A paper published today in the Journal of Climate finds that relative humidity has been decreasing 0.5% per decade across North America during the 62 year period of observations from 1948-2010. Computer models of AGW show positive feedback from water vapor by incorrectly assuming that relative humidity remains constant with warming while specific humidity increases....."Over 1/4 billion hourly values of temperature and relative humidity observed at 309 stations located across North America during 1948-2010 were studied...The averages of these seasonal trends are 0.20 C/decade and 0.07 hPa/decade which correspond to a specific humidity increase of 0.04 g/kg per decade and a relative humidity reduction of 0.5%/decade."" [V. Isaac and W. A. van Wijngaarden 2012: Journal of Climate]
Conclusion: The IPCC alarmist global warming tipping point does not exist over the long term - instead, over periods less than a decade, the climate will likely return to an equilibrium position due to built-in negative feedbacks.
James Hansen has provided proof over the last few decades that climate models are worthless as climate prediction tools - will NASA & the IPCC admit failure?
(click on images to enlarge)
Using the December-end temperature anomalies (chart on left), it is readily apparent that NASA's James Hansen is entirely incapable of producing accurate global temperature predictions over the long-term. His predictions have been so bad that even the mainstream press is finally coming around to the realization that the alarmist global warming scenarios are truly without merit.
The second chart (on the right) exhibits the non-predicted deceleration of global temperatures over the last 15 years using the IPCC's gold-standard HadCRUT dataset.
Whether it is long or short-term, Hansen/NASA models are no better than a Ouija board as a tool to predict global temperatures. This massive failure by Hansen et al can also be seen in his model's prediction of ocean heat content and sea level rise.
The IPCC's "Climate Bible" relies on the HadCRUT (HC) global temperature dataset for its analysis - the last 100 years of HC data reveals the weak CO2 and global warming relationship
A previous 'C3' post regarding CO2 and NOAA / NCDC global temperatures generated a lot of interest, especially the second chart titled: "The Case Against CO2." That chart revealed that CO2's impact on global temperatures was essentially very weak over the last 50 years, ending 2011, versus the prior 50 years ending 1961.
We received questions as to how the famous HadCRUT (the IPCC's favorite global temperature dataset) compared to the previously used NOAA/NCDC dataset. The adjacent chart shows the result of switching to the all important HC data.
As one can discern from this chart, the result is essentially the same for the two datasets (see previous NOAA/NCDC chart).
The 50-year period ending 1961 had little CO2 growth, yet global temperatures increased significantly more than the "unprecedented" and "accelerating" global warming of the 50-year period ending 2011.
The growth of CO2 levels has an inconsistent effect on global temperatures suggesting the CO2 and temperature relationship is not robust - it is actually frail
Global temperatures are not "accelerating" because of CO2 during the last 50 years
Modern global warming over last 50 years was not "unprecedented" versus earlier periods
Other climate dynamics and inputs primarily drive temperature and climate change - the trace gas CO2 has only a trace impact in comparison
Many global warming alarmist scientists make the claim that CO2 is the world's thermostat - NOAA climate evidence totally debunks that bogus claim
The urban myth of the all powerful climate trace gas CO2 has led both alarmist climate scientists and EPA bureaucrats with political agendas to actually claim that CO2 is like a furnace's thermostat. Just dial the increase/decrease of CO2 change desired, and like a furnace, the earth's temperature will respond up/down accordingly.
That claim is robust, bogus political propaganda with zero scientific merit, as NOAA's empirical science collection efforts have well established. (click chart to enlarge)
This chart plots actual annual changes in atmospheric levels (from 1880 through 2011) versus actual annual changes in NOAA/NCDC global temperatures for the same time period. As can be seen, the annual change in CO2 (the black columns) have little if any impact of annual temp change (the red-orange curve). The R^2 measurement of the CO2 and temperature relationship is a meager +0.016 - that would be a R^2 of teeny-weeny proportions (essentially there is no cause and effect relationship).
The longer term view supports that finding also. The green curve on the chart is the 20-year average of CO2 level changes; the blue curve is the 20-year average of global temperature changes. Clearly, changes in CO2 are not driving changes in temperatures - CO2 is not a "thermostat".
Global annual temperature changes are not a result of changes in CO2 levels
CO2 is not some magical global thermostat
Other climate dynamics drive major temperature change and climate change
The above conclusions do not preclude CO2 having a consistently minor, beneficial warming influence on global temperatures
Latest data from NASA / GISS confirms the robust deceleration of global warming, revealing the non-significant impact on global temperatures by CO2
(click on images to enlarge)
The AGW alarmist claim of "accelerating" global warming requires, at minimum, an increasing rate of temperature change as denoted by an increasing slope of a linear trend line. The two above charts plot the rolling 10-year trend (slope) of the annual GISS temperature data - the left axis of both charts represents slope in terms of temperature change per hundred years (century).
The leftmost chart reveals a large variation in speed and level of temperature change since the 1800s. The right chart takes the same data but only plots the last 15 years of GISS "acceleration" and "deceleration."
From the 2001 peak of a +3.48°C/century temperature rate, it has now fallen at the end of 2011 to an almost flat rate of +0.04°C/century temperature increase. Per the actual evidence, the increasing atmospheric levels of CO2 (grey arrow and grey area of charts) has zero influence on whether global temperatures are accelerating or decelerating.
These two charts do not represent predictions of future temperatures, but both clearly indicate that the IPCC and major climate research agencies have been substantially wrong in predicting "accelerating" warming.
Likewise, they have been substantially wrong in their assumption that the climate sensitivity to increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 is positive, growing and nearing a runaway tipping point. The empirical evidence proves all of these assertions to be essentially false.
Global temperatures are decelerating, not accelerating
Rising CO2 levels do not cause global temperatures to continuously increase
Climate sensitivity to CO2 levels is not robust
IPCC predictions of "runaway" temps and climate "tipping points" are without empirical merit
Science elites and their mainstream press comrades have been pushing the fantasy of rapid, accelerating global warming - NOAA proves they were lying
The claim that human CO2 causes rapid, accelerating global warming is empirically a very bogus statement.
As evident by the adjacent NOAA / NCDC data, the "accelerating" warming claim is without merit - it is a literally a myth that MSM reporters and establishment science elites use to serve their political agenda purposes.
As the orange circles indicate, annual temperature change constantly fluctuates between positive and negative values, and the blue 10-year average reveals zero "accelerated" warming. The growth of CO2 levels (grey columns and curve) reveals little influence on temperature change.
To put this in real world context, think about it this way:
1. If a portfolio manager said the orange circles represent accelerating investment returns, year after year, that person would likely be incarcerated or institutionalized for blatant fraud.
2. If the Google CEO told his board of the directors that the orange circles represent accelerating growth of Google profits, year after year, the board (even board member Al Gore) would have no choice but to fire the CEO for either gross stupidity or robust lying.
Is it any wonder that the American public trust in the mainstream press and the climate science establishment continues to plunge?
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center just released today their global temperature dataset for the year ending 2011 (and yes, they conducted another bizarre revision of the entire historical dataset - more on that in a later posting). (click on images to enlarge)
The chart on the left plots the NCDC global temperatures for the last 15 years ending 2011, plus the atmospheric CO2 levels. As the empirical evidence undeniably shows, there is no correlation between global temps and CO2, and the blue curve actually suggests a movement towards a cooling era.
The linear trend for the NCDC temperatures represents an increase by year 2100 of only +0.40°C degree - definitely not "accelerating" warming using anyone's definition. (see new post on "accelerating" here)
The measly "global warming" of the last 15 years is one story and another interesting story about global warming is found in looking at the last 100 years. When the 100 year span is broken into 50-year segments, one ending 2011 and the other ending 1961, the myth of dangerous global warming from human CO2 emissions really starts to unravel. (see update with HadCRUT temperature data)
The first red bar on second chart (chart on right) represents the increase of the 2011 mean temperature over that of 1961; the second red bar represents the increase of the 1961 mean temperature over that of 1911. Clearly, the increase of the mean temperature during the first 50-year period surpasses that of the last 50-year period ending 2011.
And the greater increase in mean temperature during the first 50 year period took place with a smaller increase in atmospheric CO2 levels, as depicted by the grey bars. In fact, the CO2 level increase over the last 50 years was greater than 4 times the earlier 50-year period.
The take home from both charts is rather simple and obvious: the urban myths of accelerating, unequivocal, irreversible, unprecedented, rapid, dangerous modern warming from human CO2 are just that - myths. In addition, these two charts reveal that any proposal suggesting that by controlling CO2 emissions it would be like controlling a global temperature "thermostat" is a bogosity bordering on insanity.
Summary: Both global warming and cooling have happened in the recent past, and both will occur again over the next 100 years, regardless of CO2 emissions.