Per a previous analysis of rising seas surrounding Pacific islands, the satellite measurements indicate that seas are rising but at a very meager rate. The current sea rise rate is significantly below what consensus climate science alarmists have predicted.
So, how do the doomsday claims that tropical islands are being lost to "rapidly" rising seas compare to reality?
Scientific peer-reviewed research can answer that question: The claims are bogus.
A new study examined the Jaluit Atoll of the Marshall Islands.
"...the pair of New Zealand researchers set out to examine historical changes in 87 islands found within the Jaluit Atoll...over the period 1945-2010. During this time, the islands were subjected to ongoing sea level rise and the passage of a notable typhoon...which caused severe damage with its >100 knot winds and abnormal wave heights...caused a decrease in total island land area of approximately five percent, yet Ford and Kench write that “despite [this] significant typhoon-driven erosion and a relaxation period coincident with local sea-level rise, [the] islands have persisted and grown.” Between 1976 and 2006, for example, 73 out of the 87 islands increased in size, and by 2010, the total landmass of the islands had exceeded the pre-typhoon area by nearly 4 percent."
Simply stated, this study again confirms that doomsday prognostications based on climate model simulations have no relation to the actual Pacific island/atoll reality during periods of sea rise.
Simply stated, this predicted dangerous "acidification" is hypothesized to make the waters uninhabitable for most marine life.
And for this to become a reality, it means that a demonstrable and consistent decline in sea/ocean pH levels should be evident since the beginning of the industrial age.
In fact, as this study indicates, researchers are finding it exceedingly difficult to locate ocean/sea waters that exhibit a dangerous decline in pH values. In addition, as this chart shows (click on chart to enlarge), any slight change in pH from human sources is being swamped, multiple times, by natures own unpredictable wide variability.
It's not even close.
In a prior posting, the empirical evidence from a group of high quality tidal gauge locations revealed the long-term acceleration and deceleration of sea levels.
Overall, the last 30 years exhibited a trend of only 9-10 inches per century - certainly not a biggie even worthy of a climate-doomsday claim. This trend has been exceeded in the past, prior to the accumulation of high levels of CO2 gases in the atmosphere.
Despite this known evidence, over the last decade and a half much has been made of the claim that CO2 emissions were causing the seas to rise ever faster and would soon result in a literal swamping of Pacific islands.
But what does the actual non-tidal gauge empirical evidence say about the sea rise in the Pacific?
(click on any image to enlarge)
Using the satellite observations, compiled by the leading sea level research group's site, one can download sea surface height anomalies from the beginning of the 21st century. This empirical evidence should clarify if civilization's massive CO2 emissions over the last 15+ years have caused a dangerous sea rise surge of ever higher waves.
And it does clarify.
The empirical evidence is rather convincing when it comes to a lack of rapidly rising sea heights around Pacific islands and atolls.
With that said, there indeed may be certain Pacific regions and specific island situations that are experiencing a greater acceleration of rising sea levels. But one would be hard-pressed to claim a unique location (or several) represents the result of CO2-induced global climate change when scientific measurement-reality obviously indicates accelerating, doomsday sea level rise is not a global phenomenon.
Notes: Download Excel spreadsheet with sea height anomaly datasets (and comments) for these 8 island regions: Hawaii, Tuvalu, Midway, Nauru, Wake, Tahiti, Norwalk and Marshall. Plots and trends produced from a January 2000 start date in order to identify the 21st century sea level rise conditions versus the claims.
Across the globe there exist only a handful of tide gauge station records available that exceed 100 years in length, and that also report at least 90% of the monthly records over the last 100 years.
Using the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) database, one can identify 15 gauge sites that are exemplary in record keeping. In addition, all 15 have records through 2013, with the majority (12) having records through 2014.
The 15 sites with a long history of gauge readings are listed on the adjacent chart. The chart also includes an average of all 15 and a plot of atmospheric CO2 levels.
The chart plots the per century trends, by month, based on moving 30-year (360-month) periods.
The smooth trend curves plotted are fitted, providing a visual as to where sea level acceleration and deceleration have been, and indicate where they might be going. [Ed: Using trends for predictive purposes is not recommended.]
The purplish (mauve) smooth curve is the average of all moving per century trends for the 15 sites; the monthly datapoints for the average of all is depicted also (see the variable mauve plot).
What do the mauve trend curve and mauve monthly datapoint plot reveal?
Putting it into the human-caused 'climate change' context, this global mean of long-term sea level trend has clearly not been a function of the rapidly rising CO2 levels (see chart's plot of moving 360-month average of atmospheric CO2 levels).
In summary, the overall sea level rise trend has been rather unimpressive, and slightly meandering back and forth since the early 1940s, while CO2 levels have exhibited a seemingly exponential growth. At the end of 2014, the 30-year trend amounted to a 2.3 to 2.5 mm (9 to 10 inches) increase per year.
The chart also reveals the two outliers of the group: Stockholm and Galveston, Texas. They both show a distinct cycle of ups and downs with no obvious relation to CO2 levels. (Stockholm's gauge has recorded a declining sea level trend.....at -14.3 inches per century, as of the end of 2014.)
For the other 13 gauge sites, the chart only depicts the smoothed fitted trends of sea level rise using the 30-year periods. Each site's trend exhibits a slightly different cyclical pattern cycle from others but most stay within a fairly narrow range over the decades. (See monthly per century trends plotted without the smooth fitted curves.)
Finally, the chart's two dashed fitted curves, red and blue, represent opposite trend directions at the end of 2013 - they are San Francisco and Freemantle, Australia. These two sites would suggest that a unified, in-sync global sea level change is not a reality.
The above chart from the 15 sites indicates a current per century trend of 2.2-2.5 mm/year increase in mean sea levels, with the 1950's having a peak trend of approximately 2.7 mm/year (0.11 inches/yr). The raw sea level records when averaged, from beginning to end for the 101 years of records, calculates to an average site increase of 2.05 mm/year (0.08 inches/yr).
The current rate of sea level rise is not unusual versus the late 1940's and early 50's, which is an era prior to the huge increase in consumer/industrial CO2 emissions. And certainly this chart shows ancient sea level increases that were multiple times larger and faster than those observed with our modern climate.
This adjacent sea level infographic from a 2015 study published in the Science journal confirms that sea levels were significantly higher in the pre-history than our current levels.
When comparing the ancient past with the modern 15-site gauge per century trend of the last 30 years, it would take some 2,500 years to reach the 6-meter higher sea levels recorded approximately 125,000 years ago at a much lower CO2 level.
And to reach a more modest 1-meter sea level increase would take approximately 400+ years, per today's sea level trends.
**(Infographic's explanation: Peak global mean temperature, atmospheric CO2, maximum global mean sea level (GMSL), and source(s) of meltwater. Light blue shading indicates uncertainty of GMSL maximum. Red pie charts over Greenland and Antarctica denote fraction (not location) of ice retreat.)
The modern climate alarmism fears of the soon-to-be flooding of coastal regions, which would unleash a horde of climate refugees, is entirely without scientific merit, per the modern dataset records and the expert research done on the pre-history sea levels and trends.
Additional sea level charts.
Notes: Excel was used to calculate and plot the moving sea level per century curves and fitted trends (Excel slope function produced trends based on moving 360-month periods for each month in the dataset; then converted to per century trends (inches) for each month). Excel also used to calculate averages and to sort dataset records to identify highest per century trends for each site. The smooth fitted trends are to the 6th order. The Key West, Florida dataset's first record was January 1913, thus all 15 site sea level calculations started at the same date; the first 30-year trend calculated occurred at the December 1942 dataset record - hence, the plotted trends in the top chart start with December 1942. PSMSL datasets were the source of all records used for the chart. Download raw sea level datasets in Excel spreadsheet for all 15 sites, from 1913 to 2014. The datasets chosen included those that had data at least through December 2013; had at least a 100 year record of monthly reporting; and, had at least a 90% reporting of all 1,012 months covering the 101 years. The 'youngest' dataset meeting the criteria, Key West, determined the 101-year span used.
The new study examined 118 years of empirical evidence and discovered that small Pacific islands are not disappearing under the waves of a rising ocean. Instead, the tiny atoll islands are actually growing larger.
It's another climate change 'Ooopsie'.
#agw #acidification #tcot
The proponents of climate alarmism claim that increasing temps and CO2 would severely harm the major coral reefs of the world's oceans.
As has been done in previous studies, a group of scientists conducted scientific research to determine if claimed harm would come to two different coral species of the Great Barrier Reef.
For the research, they used the following coral species: Acropora tenuis and Acropora millepora.
Their peer-reviewed conclusions:
"Chua et al. say they "found no consistent effect of elevated pCO2 on fertilization, development, survivorship or metamorphosis, neither alone nor in combination with temperature." As for warming, they also say that it "had no consistent effect on fertilization, survivorship or metamorphosis." However, they observed that the two degrees of warming actually increased rates of development. And that is good news concerning the future of these organisms!"
EU researchers analyzed multi-mission satellite records in a new study and determined the following:
1. A huge bulge in the Western Pacific is responsible for much of the past "global" sea rise.
2. Since 2002, sea level rise has greatly decelerated.
3. Globally, on average, sea levels are currently increasing at a 2.31 mm/year rate (that's a 3.2 inches by year 2050 rate).
This research confirms what other scientists have already recently found by analyzing tide gauge records around the world.
For example, a group of scientists examined sea level rise around the North Sea. What they discovered was an absence of evidence confirming the doomsday predictions of soon-to-be submerged coasts.
==> "Based on their analysis of all the available data, the four researchers determined that "linear long-term trends in the Inner North Sea (1.6 mm/yr) are similar to global trends (1.7 mm/yr) but smaller in the English Channel (1.2 mm/yr)." And they report that "although the recent rates of sea level rise were high, there is no evidence yet that sea level rise has accelerated over the last decades in the North Sea region.""
A 1.7mm/year increase converts to a 2.16 inch rise by 2050AD and for the English Channel, 1.2mm/yr equals 1.8 inches by 2050.
Conclusion: Ahhh...those damnable stubborn facts. By 2100, and certainly 2050, the North Sea coastline (and others across the globe) will retain its majestic beauty, still existing as it is known today. Thus, proposed trillion dollar tax hikes and higher price schemes for fossil fuel usage are a total waste since lower cost adaption techniques can be effectively implemented to deal with the such meager rises the world likely faces.
Previous sea level articles.
The vicious combination of climate "experts" driven by a political-alarmist agenda and the indisputably incompetent climate models has long misled the taxpaying public and policymakers.
As the NOAA chart of the Great Lakes on the left clearly indicates, water levels are above the long-term averages. The predicted "tipping point" water level reduction from global warming and climate change is AWOL.
The frequent and spectacular prediction failures of the computer simulations and experts has been widely noted in the past.
Latest peer reviewed research determines that recent sea level rise along the coasts of northern Europe and the English Channel are within historical bounds experienced during the 19th and earlier 20th century periods.
Per the scientists from Australia, France, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, the actual empirical evidence points to a potential sea level rise by 2050 AD of 2.1 inches for the North Sea coast and 1.6 inches for the English Channel.
"In light of the findings of the international team of scientists participating in this significant study, it would appear that there is nothing unusual, unnatural or unprecedented about the rate of sea level rise throughout both the North Sea and the rest of the Global Ocean over the entire CO2-emitting course of the Industrial Revolution."
In summary, this study does not support the irrational, unsubstantiated current claims and predictions of sea level increases made by prominent GWN's who rely on projections from the discredited climate models. The recent and past sea level increase facts reveal the totally absurd and irresponsible, anti-science speculations of 36 to 120 inch rise for coastal waters.
Climate reality and the IPCC's predictions often wildly diverge. The well understood reason for this divergence is simply a result of the UN's political agenda, pushed aggressively by its bureaucrats and sponsored "scientists".
An example of its agenda science is shown in the adjacent plot of actual sea level rise versus 2100AD predictions. (click plot to enlarge)
At the bottom of the chart is the plot of actual sea level rise calculated by Colorado University using satellite measurements. Per this empirical evidence, the sea level trend since 1992 suggest that oceans will rise some 11 inches by 2100AD.
An 11" rise by century-end is definitely not a catastrophe and certainly an outcome that humans can adapt to/cope with. And clearly, it represents a 2100AD level substantially below the IPCC's predicted 24" rise.
The IPCC's prediction not only does not comport with climate reality, other expert research indicates that sea level rise by 2100AD will amount to only a 4-6" increase. Two recent studies, one by NOAA and another by China's experts, represent 'those stubborn facts' that are continually undermining the IPCC prediction fantasies.
When assessing future climate forecasts, it's best to remember that the IPCC's "scientific" reports are climate exaggerations produced by their mandated UN political agenda. Climate science reality is an entirely different animal, though.
Note: Excel used to plot/trend an average of monthly sea level measurements from Colorado University's dataset. The 2100AD predicted levels determined from per-century trends reported by studies.
The newest research has determined sea level are only rising one-third as much as predicted by the IPCC - that fraction represents a century-end rise of only 4 inches.
The top chart of actual NOAA sea level metrics was produced by Steve Goddard and it clearly shows that NOAA tide gauge measurements match what the new study found.
As with the exaggerations of "accelerating" global warming, the claims that rapid and dangerous sea level rise are entirely without scientific merit - yep, another bogus alarmist claim fails its validity test.
As multiple studies have proven before, this type of ocean acidification alarmism is lacking in empirical, scientific merit.
Previous studies have come to similar conclusions. The IPCC scary predictions about harm to coral from CO2 are unfounded.
Again, nature is not cooperating with the IPCC's fear-mongering.
Americans don't think highly of journalists, primarily due to mistrust issues.
Proving Americans' assessment correct, the National Geographic is caught pushing obvious "science" B.S. about sea level rise.
Why the mainstream believes they can blatantly fear-monger over climate change and global warming, with gross distortions, in the internet age is, ..... well ..... exceptionally stupid.
This National Geographic cover is a perfect example of climate-BSing that Americans don't need in a serious debate about science - a National Enquirer's level of sensationalism in a "science journal" is simply worthless.
Note: Per the NYC tide gauge trend, by year 2100, sea levels near the statue will have risen by some 9.6 inches - the National Geographic cover is a gross distortion, visual-lies one could say, designed to mislead. For more accurate information, a variety of empirical evidence sea level rising charts.
As has now become well established, climate experts and their climate models have done an abysmal job at predicting global temperatures. This spectacular prediction failure has led to even greater failures for predictions of multiple climate attributes, including global sea levels.
A new study has analyzed the sea level prediction capabilities of Australian government experts and found extreme prediction failure, which is another resounding testament to the gigantic waste of climate research billions over the last few decades.
(1) The official Australian claim of a present sea level rise in the order of 5.4mm/year is significantly exaggerated
(2) The mean sea level rise from Australian tide gauges as well as global tide gauge networks is to be found within the sector of rates ranging from 0.1 to 1.5 mm/year
(3) The claim of a recent acceleration in the rate of sea level rise cannot be validated by tide gauge records, either in Australia or globally. Rather, it seems strongly contradicted
The practical implication of our conclusions is that there, in fact, is no reason either to fear or to prepare for any disastrous sea level flooding in the near future." [Nils-Axel Morner, Albert Parker 2013: Environmental Science]
Note: Chart has 36-month average HadCRUT4 global temperature curve (#7 maroon) superimposed.
(click on images to enlarge, image source)
The IPCC's refusal to incorporate and/or accept any empirical evidence that is contrary to their climate models' alarmist catastrophe predictions is well known. As a result, the IPCC's scary global warming predictions have been shown to be egregiously wrong and terribly misleading for policymakers.
The anti-science fantasy approach to the IPCC's political-driven "analysis" has suffered another major blow from a new study by Nicola Scafetta. This latest research confirms previous studies about just how wrong the IPCC has been about those "accelerating" sea level increases.
"This is a major paper, which undertakes a comprehensive review of recent studies, which diverge widely in their findings...main reason for divergence is the length of records used in studies, and shows that the quasi-cyclic oscillations of the major ocean basins largely account for the differences in those studies conclusions...it is shown that the periodicity of the major oscillations, being 60 to 70 years, require a minimum record length of around 110 years in order to prevent polynomial fitting of long term secular trends being contaminated with shorter term quasi-cyclic variation. Using tide gauge records going back as far as 1700...compares the trends in sea level rise acceleration at widely spread geographical locations once the quasi-cyclic components are removed and finds the long term global average to be very small – around 0.01mm/yr...study suggests that sea level rise during the C21st [21st century] will be around 277+/-7mm, or about 9 inches." [Nicola Scafetta 2013: Climate Dynamics]
(click on images to enlarge - sources of data)
The image on the left is the main Hawaiian Island with a red circle denoting the coastal region near the community of Captain Cook, Hawaii. The chart on the right is a plot of satellite data of Captain Cook coastal sea surface heights, and monthly atmospheric CO2 levels, since 1992.
Clearly, per the satellite data, the hysterical IPCC prediction that human CO2 emissions would cause dangerous, accelerating sea level rise and swamp Pacific Ocean islands is totally discredited. Not only has human CO2 not unleashed catastrophic sea level rises (i.e. climate change), human emissions have not unleashed rapidly increasing, catastrophic global warming.
Regarding global sea levels, a new peer reviewed study found that both satellite and tide gauge empirical observations indicate that sea levels are driven by a natural 60-year oscillation. Essentially, sea levels will naturally rise and fall regardless of atmospheric CO2 levels.
"Over the last decade," in the words of Chambers et al. (2012), "numerous papers have commented on the appearance of decadal and longer period fluctuations in select tide gauge records... And in their own study of long tide gauge records in every ocean basin, Chambers et al. find that there is, indeed, "a significant oscillation with a period around 60-years in the majority of the tide gauges examined during the 20th century."...they rightly state that the 60-year oscillation does change "our interpretation of the trends when estimated over periods less than one-cycle of the oscillation." And, therefore, they conclude that "although several studies have suggested the recent change in trends of global sea level rise reflects an acceleration, this must be re-examined in light of a possible 60-year oscillation [italics and bold added]," in further support of which contention they note that "there have been previous periods where the rate was decelerating..." [Don P. Chambers, Mark A. Merrifield, R. Steven Nerem 2012: Geophysical Research Letters]
Read here. The IPCC was long ago charged with the objective of "proving" that greenhouse gases were the cause of global warming. The IPPC also took the lead in the well financed campaign to frighten the world's populace with scary disaster scenarios due to CO2-induced warming.
One such climate calamity that the IPCC (and multiple other doomsday alarmists) promulgate is that the coastal regions of the world would be swamped by the melting polar ice sheets.
However, like all other doomsday predictions, the seas rapidly and relentlessly rising and then submerging areas such as New York City has not happened, and is not even close to happening as the adjacent chart indicates. So, why have the sea level predictions failed so spectacularly?
The experts on Greenland's ice sheet have now discovered that the climate models are entirely wrong about the whole concept of ice sheet melting:
"Danish researchers are calling for the models used it [to] forecast sea level rise to be changed after their research shows that Greenland’s ice-cap is not melting more quickly, but rather in bursts...The group’s research, which has been published this week in the Science magazine, shows that the speed at which Greenland’s ice-cap melts, rises and falls in different periods...Up to now scientists have believed that Greenland’s ice was melting faster and have used the hypothesis in developing many of the climate models that are now used to calculate future sea-water levels.“The bottom line is that it’s not going to happen as quickly as people have feared...”"
Read here. The IPCC prediction that the sea's plankton are at survival risk because of ocean acidification has gained much attention in the mainstream press. But does this prediction have scientific merit?
The Nielsen et al. team of researchers decided to investigate if the prediction was sound in terms of science.
"The authors write that "the atmospheric CO2 concentration is rising, and models predict that by the end of the century it will have increased to twice the amount seen at any given time during the last 15 million years," stating that "this will cause a decrease in average surface water pH of 0.4," while noting that planktonic protists will be among the organisms to be affected first by this change."..."tested whether reduced pH would affect plankton communities over an incubation period of 14 days."...researchers determined that nutrient uptake and photosynthetic parameters "were all unaffected by pH treatments 8.3-7.7," treatments that they say "match the predicted 21st century changes in CO2 and pH." In addition, they found that "cellular carbon and total particulate organic carbon were both completely unaffected by pH treatment within this range," and that "the same was true for the succession of all 25 enumerated protist species." [Lasse Tor Nielsen, Gustaaf M. Hallegraeff, Simon W. Wright, Per Juel Hansen 2012: Aquatic Microbial Ecology]
(click images to enlarge)
#2. Climate doomsday scientists, such as James Hansen, Heidi Cullen and Stefan Rahmstorf, predicted mythically high ocean levels, not because of science reality, but instead to emulate what Hollywood was doing to attract greater public attention
#3. Per the advanced satellite technology and ocean science, the real empirical evidence points to a sea level increase by 2100 that will literally be chump change, not the envisioned Hollywood (or Hansen et al.) mega-disaster
Since late 1992, satellites have been monitoring ocean levels constantly. The chart on the left plots the actual sea level rise (using inches instead of millimeters) in contrast to the IPCC's predicted sea level rise by 2100 AD, and common predictions of doomsday experts. The dotted aqua line is where sea levels will be if the current trend continues until 2100.
When the current sea level trend (+0.12 inch/year) is put into the context of the mega-scary predicted levels, the hysterical concerns about coastal flooding disasters are rationally reduced, dramatically. But to keep those irrational concerns high, here's how government-funded scientists portray the same sea level increase since 1992.
The chart on the top right compares the IPCC and other alarmist predictions, from the end of 2006 to April 2012, the most recent satellite measurement available. The blue bar is the actual amount the sea levels have increased, versus what the IPCC predicted increase for sea levels by April 2012. IPCC predicted sea level. The chart's higher red bars show increases by April 2012 for the often made alarmist predictions that the mainstream press reports uncritically (as gospel).
[Note: Why 2006? The IPCC 2007 report based its sea level prediction on measurements prior to 2007. We used the December 2006 satellite measurement as the base month, then calculated the April 2012 sea level increase (actual and all predicted values) from that 2006 base month. We first converted all measurements to inches then calculated each month's average sea level from multiple monthly measurements - satellites measure ocean levels 2-4 times per month.]
(click on image to enlarge, image source)
A key means to manipulate the world's policymakers and the public is to wildly exaggerate potential catastrophic disasters inferring a high likelihood. A favorite IPCC "disaster" is the rising seas caused by human CO2 emissions. A rise so high that will consume low-lying tropical islands and their cultures. But does that "looming" disaster have real merit?
Nope. Coastal tide gauges from around the world, documented in study after study, show that the current sea level rise is very modest and might reach a measly 3 to 7 inches by 2100.
But what about the vulnerable natives of Pacific island atolls? A recent peer reviewed article describes the situation of Tarawa of the Gilbert Islands.
"These common images of flooded homes and waves crashing across the causeways—collected during an anomalous event on islets susceptible to flooding due in part to local modifications to the environment—can provide the false impression that Tarawa is subject to constant flooding because of sea level rise...Many individual observations of erosion, flooding, or groundwater salinization, recorded in community consultations for internationally funded climate change adaptation programs, are thus attributed to climate change without scientific analysis...These events are presented as examples of climate change impacts in promotional materials and at international events...The failure to consider the contribution of natural variability and direct human modifications can lead to misattribution of flooding events or shoreline changes to sea level rise...Instead of incorrectly attributing individual flood events or shoreline changes to global sea level rise, scientists and climate communicators can use such occurrences to educate the public about the various natural and human processes that affect sea level, the shoreline, and the shape of islands."
(click on images to enlarge, source of images)
Read here. Multiple "scientific" personalities seeking fame, fortune and influence (such as the likes of Hansen, Cullen and Rahmstorf) have attempted to frighten the public and policymakers by stating that global warming was causing an acceleration of global sea level rise. Depending on the given personality, they predict that recent "acceleration" will cause sea levels to increase anywhere from 4 feet to 75 feet by 2100.
Empirically speaking, these "predictions" are utter nonsense with literally no facutal basis - and, btw, that's why exceptionally lazy and/or amazingly stupid NY Times and Washington Post "journalists" just love these hysterical claims.
Per the actual tide gauge data plots shown above though, it is more than obvious that the readers of the mainstream press have been significantly mislead by the catastrophic global warming hucksters. The chart on the left represents annual sea level change since 1900. The red line is the 10-year average.
One does not have to be a climate scientist to realize that this chart unequivocally reveals a pattern of constant annual variation in sea levels with absolutely zero acceleration.
The plot on the right, examines the 10-year average in even more more detail. Since 1900, the trend of the 10-yr average actually shows a deceleration, not an acceleration of sea level rise. Using the 10-yr average at the end of 2011 as the sea rise gospel, by year 2100, sea levels would only increase by some 7 inches - not exactly the millions of "climate refugees" type of catastrophe (another spectacularly wrong AGW huckster prediction) that the MSM has been caught parroting without due diligence.
Read here. The predicted "accelerating" sea level rise has been a fearmongering staple of the IPCC's global warming alarmists and the mainstream press for decades. For pure hysteria sake, nothing beats the image of flooding populous coastal areas with the intent to frighten the public.
Unfortunately for the alarmists, the empirical evidence does not support their grossly speculative predictions from discredited climate models.
Firstly, the "accelerating" global sea level rise has not taken place as multiple research studies have documented.
Secondly, the alarmist creed that the melting of Greenland's glaciers would cause devastating ocean rises has been completely debunked by a new peer reviewed study on some 200+ glaciers on the world's largest island.
"...titled “21st Century Evolution of Greenland Outlet Glacier Velocities” [Moon et al.] examined the flow characteristics from nearly 200 glaciers across Greenland for the period 2000-2010 as analyzed using synthetic aperture radar data collected from various satellites...And what they found...was that the patterns of flow rate changes across Greenland were complex, both in space and time. Glaciers that were accelerating during a few years were found to be decelerating in others. Some accelerating glaciers were found in close proximity to other glaciers that were decelerating..."Finally, our observations have implications for recent work on sea level rise...Our wide sampling of actual 2000 to 2010 changes shows that glacier acceleration across the ice sheet remains far below these estimates, suggesting that sea level rise associated with Greenland glacier dynamics remains well below the low-end scenario (9.3 cm [3.7 inches] by 2100) at present...Our result is consistent with findings from recent numerical flow models."" [Twila Moon, Ian Joughin, Ben Smith, Ian Howat 2012: Science]
Read here. New empirical evidence from New Zealand scientists document the lack of "accelerating" global sea level levels. The island nation in the southern Pacific has not been swamped by the rising seas and the confirmed trend indicates only a 7 inch rise by 2100.
The New Zealand documented trend is similar to those established by other research done by sea level experts.
"With respect to the South Pacific Ocean, the authors indicate that there are few reliable tide gauge records with data predating 1950...In an attempt to improve this data-sparse situation, Hannah and Bell say that "an investigation was undertaken to determine whether historical data from other tide gauge sites could provide additional spatial coverage of relative sea level trends around New Zealand."...the two New Zealand scientists report that "the average relative sea level rise calculated from the six newly derived trends was 1.7 ± 0.1 mm/year," a result that they say "is completely consistent with the far more rigorous and conventional analyses previously undertaken for the four main ports using long-term tide gauge records." And they write that "in a global context, this average trend in relative sea level rise is also consistent with the results of Church and White (2011), who find a global average linear trend in secular sea level rise of 1.7 ± 0.2 mm/year from 1900-2009."" [Jonh Hannah, Robert Bell 2012: Journal of Geophysical Research, Oceans]
(click on map to enlarge - map source)
Read here. The evidence continues to pour in discrediting the IPCC's fabricated disaster claims of catastrophic sea level rises. Researchers from the around the world have documented that the predicted "accelerating" and "dangerous" sea level increases are not happening.
The latest research by Albrecht et al. focuses on sea levels near the Jutland peninsula (the German Bight). These EU researchers were unable to discern the "unprecedented" sea level increases from the actual empirical evidence, which is evidence that the mainstream media and the IPCC alarmists conveniently ignore.
"Focusing on regional mean sea level (RMSL) changes in the North Sea and, more precisely, in the German Bight, Albrecht et al. developed an index time series for the RMSL employing two different approaches...basing their work on homogenized annual mean sea level data covering the period 1843-2008 that were acquired by 15 tide gauges...suggesting that "regional mean sea level increased at rates between 1.64 and 1.74 mm/year with a 90% confidence range of 0.28 mm/year in each case." As for whether or not there was an acceleration in RMSL rise within the past few decades, they note that in terms of 20-year trends, the most recent rates are "relatively high." However, they report that these rates "are not unusual and that similar rates could also be identified earlier in the record."...they go on to note that "the same conclusion concerning a possible acceleration in the recent past was drawn by Haigh et al. (2009) for the North Sea region of the English Channel."" [Frauke Albrecht, Thomas Wahl, Jürgen Jensen, Ralf Weisse 2011: Ocean Dynamics]
Read here. Australians are naturally concerned with protecting their coastal areas from rising sea levels due to CO2-induced global warming (is it even happening?). Over recent years, a collection of Australia's scientists, politicians, bureaucrats and journalists have been spreading the fear of rising tides swamping Australia. But are the fears justified?
Utilizing data from the world's tide gauges, a new peer reviewed study debunks the myth that Australia needs to spend billions to protect its shoreline from sea inundation.
"The government of Australia is supporting the statement that sea levels are rising faster than ever before as a result of increased carbon dioxide emissions. Consequent to this, low-lying coastal areas, where the majority of Australians are concentrated, have been declared at risk of sea level inundations...However, long term tide gauges, recording sea levels worldwide, as well as along the coastline of Australia, and within the bay of Sydney, do not show any sign of accelerating sea level rises at present time...Long term recording tide gauges show weak sea level rises and no acceleration." [Alberto Boretti 2012: Coastal Engineering]
The IPCC and its Climategate associates have literally fabricated scary global warming scenarios of immense sea level increases that will swamp coastal regions with - namely, 20mm/year increases at a minimum.
Of course, as with any prediction by the IPCC-related gang, the sea level protection racket does not comport with the empirical evidence, as this Climate Sanity blog video reveals. The video exposes the real sea level data, which alarmists are utterly unable to refute. Enjoy.
Sea level increases past 20,000 years.
Per the trends, sea levels will be 2.7 inches higher in 2100 with ocean temperatures being lower by -0.5°C. (Note: trends are not predictions)
Since late 2003 the EU has had its own satellite to measure sea levels. With that new technology, they have determined that the sea's are barely rising (see blue curve in chart), in contrast to the prediction of "accelerating" sea level increases by the IPCC's minions, and the prediction of "boiling" ocean temperatures by others.
Boiling oceans!!!? Yup...James Hansen, a climate "expert," has recently been caught on video actually claiming that if ocean temperatures continue their trend they will begin to boil - see video here. This is the Madoff-style climate science that the elites eagerly swallow hook, line and sinker.
Read here. New empirical research determines that extreme variation in pH levels of sea waters occurs naturally and frequently. The extremes are so great that marine life is often exposed to "acidified" waters without being threatened in the course of daily life.
Human CO2 emissions are not causing the extreme pH ranges currently existing in sea waters.
The peer-reviewed research by Hofman et al completely vindicates the skeptics' position of ocean acidification and thoroughly exposes the common alarmist position - hysterical leftist / liberal / progressive anti-science that is never able to withstand the scrutiny of scientific empirical research.
"The authors draw two conclusions: (1) most non-open ocean sites vary a lot, and (2) and some spots vary so much they reach the “extreme” pH’s forecast for the doomsday future scenarios on a daily (a daily!) basis."..."Here, we present a compilation of continuous, high-resolution time series of upper ocean pH, collected using autonomous sensors, over a variety of ecosystems ranging from polar to tropical, open-ocean to coastal, kelp forest to coral reef. These observations reveal a continuum of month-long pH variability with standard deviations from 0.004 to 0.277 and ranges spanning 0.024 to 1.430 pH units. The nature of the observed variability was also highly site-dependent, with characteristic diel, semi-diurnal, and stochastic patterns of varying amplitudes. These biome-specific pH signatures disclose current levels of exposure to both high and low dissolved CO2, often demonstrating that resident organisms are already experiencing pH regimes that are not predicted until 2100." [Gretchen E. Hofmann, Jennifer E. Smith, Kenneth S. Johnson, Uwe Send, Lisa A. Levin, Fiorenza Micheli, Adina Paytan, Nichole N. Price, Brittany Peterson, Yuichiro Takeshita, Paul G. Matson, Elizabeth Derse Crook, Kristy J. Kroeker, Maria Cristina Gambi, Emily B. Rivest, Christina A. Frieder, Pauline C. Yu, Todd R. Martz 2011: Plos One]
Read here. The IPCC has literally been wrong with almost 100% of their catastrophic climate predictions. The latest confirmation of their prediction incompetence is the failure of the seas to rise to dangerous levels per latest New Zealand tide gauge data.
New peer research found, In a nutshell, that seas around New Zealand have been rising at only a 7 inch per century rate. That is a fraction of the IPCC's worst case scenario prediction that the mainstream press exclusively reports.
Read here. Utilizing climate agency provided data and the commonly installed computer spreadsheet program called Excel, Bob Tisdale does a thorough analysis of ocean temperatures and climate model predictions. In a nutshell, Bob's comparative analysis clearly shows how worthless the climate models truly are.
(As an aside, from the Climategate2.0 emails we learn that the top IPCC scientists are so busy plotting and conspiring against other scientists they don't have the time to learn this powerful analytical tool called Excel. This may explain why the IPCC is so clueless about the robust failures of climate models, no?)
The above charts (click to enlarge) produced by Tisdale show both the Northern and Southern hemisphere actual sea surface temperatures (blue). The charts include the IPCC's climate model projection (red) for the last 17 years. As can be seen, the reality of sea surface temperatures and global warming is significantly different than what the IPCC's climate models predicted.
Per the climate models, the projected warming by 2100 is 5 times greater than the trend based on reality in the Southern Hemisphere and approximately 3 times greater for the Northern Hemisphere. This level of climate model error truly makes the IPCC projections worthless even for decadal periods, let alone for year 2100.
Yet, despite the obvious model failure, climate scientists whose financial security is dependent on the taxpayer dole continue to claim in public that climate model projections are accurate, if not the holy gospel of climate science. In private though, the Climategate2.0 emails indicate that climate scientists have little regard for the billion dollar climate model failures.
Welcome to the world of UN-IPCC climate science corruption.
Read here. Green fraud is endemic within the academic community and is a major reason why the public now view science with less esteem. The Yale 360 forum provides further proof that the academia realm is less interested in honest science than in perpetuating the green fraud hysteria of climate change.
Case in point. A green propagandist, Elizabeth Grossman, had her hysterical ocean acidification article published by Yale 360. The article claims that a massive oyster die-off was caused by ocean acidification, which is supposedly caused by human CO2 emissions. Unfortunately for the public, this Yale 360 article is another "gross" misrepresentation of scientific truth and the actual empirical evidence.
Sooo...why did the oysters at the oyster farm really die? Here are the real science reasons that Yale 360 and Grossman decided the public really did not want to know:
In essence, natural climate change, in the form of ENSO, causes cold water of the Pacific to rise to the surface during certain periods. This colder water has a higher concentration of CO2 gas. The fish hatchery pumps the cold water into the farm tanks and then heats the water. This act of heating the cold water then causes it to become CO2 super-saturated. In addition, the freshly pumped sea water contains higher levels of bacteria (associated with a specific natural ENSO climate mode) dangerous to the oyster larvae/juveniles.
Voila, a perfect storm of predictable factors cause a die-off of farm oysters, robustly a result of natural climatic conditions. Atmospheric CO2 levels and human CO2 emissions had nothing to do with this incident.
Conclusion: The academic-oriented Yale 360 environmental forum is not to be believed on any climate change or ocean acidification issue, as it is more a forum of green hysteria that is incredibly vulnerable to perpetuating scary green myths and anti-science fraud B.S.
The EU satellite has been accurately measuring global sea levels since late 2003. Based on those measurements, EU scientists determined that the mean sea level increase trend was a meager 0.816 millimeters per year, which translates into a 2.8 inch increase by year 2100.
Despite the predictions by the professional climate alarmists at the IPCC, the hypothesized "accelerating" global warming has not caused the hypothesized "unequivocal" increase in mean sea levels, as the chart clearly indicates. In fact, mean sea levels have actually decreased, counter to all IPCC expert and climate model predictions - literally, a stupendous scientific fail.
Although linear trends don't necessarily make for very good long-term predictions, this empirical evidence is suggesting a far less worrisome, non-catastrophic increase in sea levels than what the taxpayer funded alarmist "experts" have predicted. Based on this real world data, it's highly unlikely that major coastal regions will be impacted by the wildly speculative higher sea levels.
Read here, it's truly amazing. Being a 'cool dude' is challenging, fun and ethical - we don't makeup bogus climate change "facts", nor are we 24/7 green hypocrites. Being a 'liar dude' is a whole nuther story though.....or, should it be 'incredibly stupid dudes' that the MSM should never quote because they .....umm......errr.....well, are so damn stupid? (h/t Tom Nelson)
Read here (h/t Steve Goddard). Gullible (and/or deceptive) reporters and leftie/lib/progressive politicians have gleefully relied on the exaggerated climate model predictions in attempt to lend credence to their claims of accelerating sea level rises. The climate models projected that human CO2 increases would cause a definitive ice sheet melt, thus the seas had to rise accordingly to new, scary heights. As usual, though, the climate models were wrong.
As reported by the AAAS Science journal, two NASA researchers closely re-analyzed the data from the East Antarctica ice sheet and found that previous ice sheet loss estimates were significantly higher than reality. The actual science:
"A new reanalysis by two NASA scientists of the three standard ice-monitoring techniques slashes the estimated loss from East Antarctica, challenging the large, headline-grabbing losses reported lately for the continent as a whole...Understanding the role of East Antarctica is one key to figuring out what the ice sheets, and thus sea level, will be doing by century's end."
Combine this study's results with recent Greenland ice sheet research and it becomes very evident why the empirical evidence (satellites and tide gauges) does not conform to the wild predictions of climate models; nor does the real world science conform to baseless, exaggerated "journalism" spoon-fed by the green climate activists.
Sea level increase through May 2011. (image source - click on to enlarge)
The Washington Post seems to think Republican candidates need to be quizzed about global warming and climate change. Not a bad idea, but maybe its the Washington Post that should first be quizzed about its beliefs and its knowledge of actual climate science and facts. (click on image to enlarge)
As a large, left/liberal, anti-science, dying MSM purveyor of global warming hysteria ("...that is probably the most important set of facts we face as a nation, and as human beings on planet earth."), it's high time that Republicans start stuffing the scientific facts down the Post's gaping throat and feel good about it.
For example, it's highly unlikely that the WAPO editors, reporters, pundits, cartoonists (yes, go ahead, roll your eyes) and readers are even aware of all the reality-based studies and research done on the actual sea level facts. Why are they unaware of the facts? Well...it's because the anti-science Post does not publish actual scientific facts, it only publishes hysterical, speculative predictions (often referred to as "wild ass guesses") that they know their mentally challenged, liberal/left readers will accept as "science."
The real climate science facts regarding sea levels are shown in the accompanying chart (which, btw, one will never see published in the Post - hey, the empirical science facts hurt, ya know).
Look carefully at that chart. After all that really, really, really terrible global warming that we have read of (ad nauseum) and suffered from over the last 40 years, and that the Post's editors and cartoonists are sooo hysterical about, the latest scientific facts (tide gauges and satellites) have sea levels rising from 1 to 3mm/year, which translates into a measly 3.5 to 11 inches by the year 2100. This is what causes their editors and cartoonists to pee in their panties, and why they believe 50 million climate refugees are roaming the Earth.
Yup, those are the unadulterated, scientific facts - a measly 11 inches by century-end, maybe; and, better yet, the actual sea level rises are just a fraction of what the Post's preeminent "science experts'" predictions are. Amazingly, the Washington Post believes "expert" predictions are facts, just like that 50 million climate refugee prediction "fact" thingy.
That's right, the actual sea level facts are are just a fraction of the ludicrous expert predictions the Washington Post normally publishes without any reservation (see the red-bar predictions in the chart). They literally mislead their readers on a daily basis (okay, granted that's not terribly difficult to do) by portraying 100% pure guesstimates as 100% actual science facts.
So, here's some advice to Republicans. The climate facts are literally unknown to leftist/liberal/progressive/Democrats of the mainstream media. Simply just jam the actual facts down their throats any chance they give you. You should truly welcome this opportunity since almost every global warming speculative fiction that the WAPO has published has been proven wrong, and they're still wrong after all these hysterical years.
Finally, Mr/Ms Republican, why not ask your favorite Post editor or reporter why they don't actually publish the sea level facts for their readers to see - get a citizen journalist to record it and gleefully put them on the spot and YouTube - embrace showing their factual stupidity and prediction hysteria.
Links for information regarding each of the 39 bars in the chart:
#1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6, #7, #8, #9, #10, #11, #12, #13, #14, #15, #16, #17, #18, #19, #20, #21, #22, #23, #24, #25, #26, #27, #28, #29, #30, #31, #32, #33, #34, #35, #36, #37, #38, and #39.
The Univ. of Colorado's satellite data sources confirm that the hysterical IPCC and NASA "climate scientists" claims of current, dangerous, "accelerating" sea level increases are entirely without merit. In actuality, these claims were past predictions generated from the failed "expert" climate models.
Just how bad were these predictions? In viewing this next graph, the rate of sea level increase leveled off in 2003 and in subsequent years declined (decelerated) - h/t Hockey Schtick. Not a single IPCC-NASA-NOAA ocean expert/scientist/model predicted this outcome. Not a single politician/bureaucrat/Hollywood celebrity predicted this outcome. The actual outcome was the direct opposite of what the "consensus" human experts and computer models predicted.
In the left's/green's battle against the scientific data, the job of embellishing the sea-level fabricated hysteria is the major priority of the mainstream media and various "science" journals. They have become hyperventilating publishers of every ludicrous climate model sea-story prediction that alarmists can conjure up, while totally disregarding the actual satellite and coastal tide gauge empirical evidence.
They do this in order to convince the public of the reality of the millions of climate refugees caused by the warmest decade and year 'evaaar'. This has to be since human emissions just had to produce the warmest year and decade 'evaaar', which just has to be melting the Greenland ice cap, mountain glaciers and the Antarctic ice sheets faster than anyone 'evaaar' predicted. And of course, all this "accelerated" melting has to result in the most accelerating sea levels 'evaaar' - not.
Despite the non-scientific, continuous media/journal hype, and the wild "expert" predictions (WAGs), both the satellites and tidal gauges are reporting that sea level increases are slowing down towards soon-to-be, non-significant rates. The objective, dispassionate empirical evidence reveals the miserable and abject failure of climate experts' and models' predictions.
Sooo, do atmospheric CO2 levels have a major influence on sea levels? As the immediate above graph clearly depicts, the sea level changes between satellite measurements (approximately every 10 days) are highly variable, with no apparent relationship to the monotonous, monthly increasing CO2 levels. The mauve curve represents the rolling 12-month average of the sea level changes indicating zero CO2 influence and that "accelerating" change to be a non-issue.
Does modern global warming cause accelerating sea level increases? Well, the red dots above represent the moving 12-month global temperature average. That temperature average has slightly increased since 1992 but the actual sea level change (rolling 12-month level change in the above graph) has actually trended downward, which is very visible in the above graph. The mauve line in this graph represents a 3-year rolling average that corroborates the known facts: sea level increases are actually decelerating, despite the known warming.
So, putting all hyperbole to the side, what are the real sea level facts based on the data, not speculative, unsubstantiated predictions:
Read here. As has been widely noted by the hysterical MSM, Hollywood bimbo celebrities and the IPCC's climate change alarmists have predicted that CO2 levels higher than the current 390 ppm level will bring great harm to all ocean life, especially to the early development of calcifying invertebrates. A new peer-reviewed study, by actual non-Hollywood scientists, reveals that the predicted larval death by acidification is the usual liberal/left, anti-science hysteria on steroids.
Martin et al. analyzed the effects of incredibly high CO2 levels (low ocean pH) on Mediterranean sea urchins. Other than a slower larval growth at ~3560 ppm, the sea urchins were unaffected by the ludicrously low pH levels imposed on the test subjects.
"The authors write that "ocean acidification is predicted to have significant effects on benthic calcifying invertebrates, in particular on their early developmental states," and they note that "echinoderm larvae could be particularly vulnerable to decreased pH, with major consequences for adult populations."...explored the effect of a gradient of decreasing pH from 8.1 to 7.0 -- corresponding to atmospheric CO2 concentrations of ~400 ppm to ~6630 ppm -- on the larvae of the sea urchin...The eleven researchers found that "Paracentrotus lividus appears to be extremely resistant to low pH, with no effect on fertilization success or larval survival."" [Sophie Martin, Sophie Richier, Maria-Luiza Pedrotti, Sam Dupont, Charlotte Castejon, Yannis Gerakis, Marie-Emmanuelle Kerros, François Oberhänsli, Jean-Louis Teyssié, 0. Ross Jeffree, Jean-Pierre Gattuso 2011: The Journal of Experimental Biology]
Read here. "Consensus" climate scientists, the IPCC, fanatical environmental groups, and the MSM have all predicted the demise of coral reefs due to the twin evils of human-induced global warming and ocean acidification. Were the predictions just alarmist hype and fabricated lies to easily fool the anti-science liberals/progressives/leftists?
Researchers, Helmle et al., analyzed coral reefs from the Florida Keys to determine if they were degraded during the 20th century from the twin "evils" predicted. Hmmm....turns out the predictions were wrong. Instead, it would seem that coral reefs prospered under warmer and CO2-enhanced water conditions.
"The authors note that ocean acidification due to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide is claimed by many to be a threat to calcifying marine organisms; and they state that when ocean acidification is combined with physiological stress caused by concomitantly rising sea surface temperatures, "shifts in community structure and accelerating degradation of coral reef ecosystems may result."...Coral cores were collected in May of 1997 and June of 1998 from seven Montastraea faveolata colonies located in the upper Florida Keys...for these cores, annual extension, density and calcification rates were obtained and analyzed, to see how they varied over this period of intensifying warming and acidification of the global ocean...they demonstrate that "the measured corals have historically been able to maintain rates of extension and calcification over the 60-year period from 1937 to 1996 under the combination of local environmental and climatic changes." They also note that calcification rates were positively related to sea surface temperature, "similar to results for Porites corals from Tahiti (Bessat and Buigues, 2001) and the Great Barrier Reef (Lough and Barnes, 1997),"" [Kevin P. Helmle, Richard E. Dodge, Peter K. Swart, Dwight K. Gledhill, C. Mark Eakin 2011: Nature Communications]
Read here. Imagine you're a scientist studying sea levels, and your career and research funding depends on proving that global warming is causing accelerating sea level increases. Now imagine the satellites and mother nature don't cooperate with your agenda, and the seas stop rising and actually produce a significant and visible satellite record that the oceans' levels declined. In your mind you're probably thinking, "I'm screwed."
So what do you do? Are you tempted to not publish the new data hoping for a miraculous sea level increase, like really, really soon? Is that why American scientists are not releasing the latest satellite results, taking a clue from their corrupted Climategate friends across the pond - sort of a "hide the decline" of satellite measurements mentality? (Hey, maybe the delay is really the lame excuse they have been providing to WUWT - who knows.)
Not all scientists are of the same ilk, though. The researchers at AVISO have kept on publishing the inconvenient satellite measurements, much to their credit. Not only are the AVISO researchers more timely (more honest?), they also deliver a better product than their U.S. counterparts.
Their research (graphs below) also include the data from the EU's Envisat satellite:
"Launched in 2002, Envisat is the largest Earth Observation spacecraft ever built. It carries ten sophisticated optical and radar instruments to provide continuous observation and monitoring of the Earth’s land, atmosphere, oceans and ice caps. Envisat data collectively provide a wealth of information on the workings of the Earth system, including insights into factors contributing to climate change."
As this first graph depicts, the Envisat data have the seas partly rebounding after a rather large drop. Since 2004, this satellite has the seas rising at only a 5 inches per century rate, very similar to tide gauge study results and well below the Jason satellite measurements that the U.S. scientists only report on. (click on images to enlarge) (source of graphs)
This next graph is a combination of various satellite measurements.
Again, all the satellites show the recent rather large drop. These combined measures have a trend since 1993 of only 12 inches per century, well below any of the recent alarmist non-scientific claims and predictions.
As can be seen, the Envisat (yellow line) reveals a larger drop than its Jason counterparts, which the U.S. scientists seemingly don't want the American taxpayers and policymakers to know about.
Additional sea-level postings.
Read here. With alarming frequency, it seems non-profit organizations take significant liberties with the truth in order to raise contributions and donations to enrich/fund themselves. The temptation to spread scientific falsehoods in order to inflate contribution flows is great, and it becomes significantly easier if a global warming (climate change) falsehood/myth can be the money-raising means. It would appear such is the case of a claim made by the Global Heritage Network (GHN).
The GHN claim (above caption from GHN briefing paper) that an ancient fort on the Indian Ocean coast of Africa is being destroyed by rising sea levels due to climate change is fundamentally bogus, as so many global warming claims from non-profit, international organizations are.
"As you can see [chart to left], we have very good agreement between the satellite and tide gauge records, which increases the confidence in both. As you can also see, over the last quarter century the massive recent sea level rise has brought the local sea level about back to where it was 25 years before…So we can throw out all of the nonsense about sea level rise. Since 1985, sea level dropped about two-four inches (50-100 cm) and rose back up again. Anyone who thinks that was the threat to the ancient fort isn’t following the story...So if sea level rise is not the cause of the fort crumbling into the sea, what is? From an examination of the site, it seems obvious that the answer is plain old garden variety erosion."..."This type of sedimentary, marshy land is never stable. Year after year the islands and the channels shift and change. Rather than being surprised that the 500-year-old fort is falling in the ocean, we should be surprised that it has lasted this long."
Moral of story? Any organization's claim that assigns blame to global warming (climate change) for a given event or situation should be immediately viewed as a false claim until empirical evidence (the observed, scientific data) is presented as proof. Organizations that continually mislead the public in regards to unproven, non-scientific claims should no longer be the trusted recipients of the publics' and/or taxpayers' generosity.
Recommendation to GHN? Remove/correct any references to climate change and/or global warming if the scientific evidence does not support the claim. (BTW, pictures, anecdotal stories, hearsay, and simulated climate model output are not empirical evidence.)
Read here. As everyone knows by now, a famous bozo and bimbo were in the near past making wild predictions about accelerating sea levels rising so high that coastal communities would soon be swamped, causing millions of refugees. Per usual, though, the famous "expert" alarmist predictions were wrong.
Latest satellite measurements show sea levels actually decreasing, not accelerating and definitely not growing dangerously high.
Read here. The IPCC Climategate scientists and alarmists have predicted that warming temperatures will cause the oceans to rise in an accelerating manner, swamping coastal areas, which will cause millions to become refugees. Fortunately for humanity, the IPCC and its government-paid minions are wrong again.
The new Australian research actually reveals a century-long deceleration trend of sea level increases with a slight increase during the late 1990's that fits within the normal variation over the longer term trend. This latest research confirms the findings of the recently published Houston and Dean study.
Both of these new studies refute the IPCC reports and climate model predictions of alarming and dangerous sea level increases.
"...indicates that "the longest continuous Australasian records, Fremantle and Auckland, situated on the western and eastern periphery of the Oceania region, respectively, exhibit remarkably similar trends in the relative 20-year moving average water level time series after 1920," with both time series showing "a rise in mean sea level of approximately 120 mm [editor: 0.059 inches per year] between 1920 and 2000 with strong correlation (R2 >= 0.93) to fitted second-order polynomial trendlines that reflect a tendency toward a general slowing in the rise of mean sea level (or deceleration) over time on the order of 0.02-0.04 mm/year/year [editor: 0.0016 inches per year/year]." And he adds that "the Fort Denison water level time series after 1940 similarly reflects a decelerating trend in sea level rise.....notes "there is a high rate of relative sea level rise averaged over the decade centered around 1994," but he says that this recent acceleration is "not remarkable or unusual in the context of the historical record available for each site over the course of the 20th century," and he states that "these recent post-1990s short-term accelerations fit within the overall longer term trend of deceleration evident in the long Australasian ocean level records."" [P. J. Watson 2011: Journal of Coastal Research]
Read here. Globally, scientists with solid empirical-based backgrounds are saying there are severe problems with many of the 2007 IPCC predictions. Namely, that many of the predictions are flat-out false based on the IPCC's political agenda, or wildly inflated by failed climate models.
New research by Houston and Dean has determined that the IPCC prediction of dangerously high acceleration of sea levels is likely both a combination of invalid climate models and desired political outcomes. They discovered that actual tidal gauge measurements over the last 80 years shows sea level increases decelerating, not accelerating per the IPCC prediction.
"Working with the complete monthly-averaged records of 57 U.S. tide gauges archived in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level data base that had lengths of 60-156 years (with a mean time span of 82 years), however, they determined that there had not been any acceleration in the rate-of-rise of the sea level along the shorelines of the United States over that period of time, during which interval the world's climate alarmists claim the planet had warmed at a rate and to a level that were unprecedented over the past one to two millennia. Quite to the contrary, in fact, they detected a slight deceleration of -0.0014 mm/year/year. And working with 25 of the tide gauge records that contained data for the period 1930-2010, they calculated an even larger deceleration of -0.0130 mm/year/year.....also report that they "obtained similar decelerations using worldwide-gauge records.....they rhetorically ask why the concomitant worldwide-temperature increase "has not produced acceleration of global sea level over the past 100 years," and, indeed, "why global sea level has possibly decelerated for at least the last 80 years."" [Houston, J.R. and Dean, R.G. 2011: Journal of Coastal Research]
Read here. Paleo-climate and ocean scientists have relied on a theory to explain pre-historical, ancient and historical sea level changes. Now comes actual empirical evidence from the Mediterranean Sea that casts doubt on the "consensus" science.
Dorale et al. using precise measurement techniques determined that the Mediterranean sea level some 81,000 years ago was significantly higher than the current day level, which is counter to past accepted science.
"Precise measurements of sea level from Mediterranean caves have revealed that about 81,000 years ago the seas stood much higher than previously thought — even higher than today's levels.....now suggests that 81,000 years ago the sea level increased sharply to reach a high-point, roughly one metre above today's level. "At face value this is a very beautiful and solid piece of work," says Wallace Broecker, a geologist and climate scientist..."..."It suggests that, for reasons unknown, the sea level which at the time should have been down some 15 metres instead went up one metre, and then went right back down again within just a couple of thousand years." [Jeffrey A. Dorale, Bogdan P. Onac, Joan J. Fornós, Joaquin Ginés, Angel Ginés, Paola Tuccimei, David W. Peate 2010: Science]
Read here. Because the CO2 alarmists keep losing the empirical evidence battle regarding global warming and climate change claims, they've turned to the bizarre hypothesis that human CO2 emissions will "acidify" the seas turning them deadly to all sea life, including sea corals. Like so many of the outlandish AGW-claims, this one does not stand up to empirical scrutiny either.
In a peer-reviewed study, Kreif et al. (2010) ran experiments to study the impact on sea corals in a water environment resembling those that would occur if extraordinary high levels of CO2 were found in the atmosphere. The result of the experiments found the sea corals not only surviving under low pH value extremes, but pertaining to certain health measurements, actually thrived.
"In the words of the seven scientists who conducted the study, "following 14 months incubation under reduced pH conditions, all coral fragments survived and added new skeletal calcium carbonate.....This was done, however, at a reduced rate of calcification compared to fragments growing in the normal pH treatment.....Yet in spite of this reduction in skeletal growth, they report that "tissue biomass (measured by protein concentration) was found to be higher in both species after 14 months of growth under increased CO2."....." and they write that "since calcification is an energy-consuming process ... a coral polyp that spends less energy on skeletal growth can instead allocate the energy to tissue biomass,".....In concluding their paper, Krief et al. say "the long acclimation time of this study allowed the coral colonies to reach a steady state in terms of their physiological responses to elevated CO2," and that "the deposition of skeleton in seawater with Ωarag < 1 demonstrates the ability of both species to calcify by modifying internal pH toward more alkaline conditions."" [Krief, S., Hendy, E.J., Fine, M., Yam, R., Meibom, A., Foster, G.L. and Shemesh, A. 2010]
Read here. James Hansen, Al Gore and other global warming alarmists base frightening climate calamities (20 to 80-foot sea level increases) on the hypothesis that human CO2 emissions will cause an "amplified" increase in polar temperatures. Actual scientific researchers decided to investigate the validity of the polar-amplification hypothesis.
The nine researchers [White et al. 2010] examined all the evidence and research related to Arctic temperatures and determined that current Arctic temperatures are well within natural variability and no CO2-induced "polar-amplification" is to be found.
"In comparing the vast array of past climate changes in the Arctic with what climate alarmists claim to be the "unprecedented" anthropogenic-induced warming of the past several decades, White et al. conclude that "thus far, human influence does not stand out relative to other, natural causes of climate change." In fact, they state that the data "clearly show" that "strong natural variability has been characteristic of the Arctic at all time scales considered," and they reiterate that the data suggest "that the human influence on rate and size of climate change thus far does not stand out strongly from other causes of climate change."" [White, J.W.C., Alley,R.B., Brigham-Grette, J., Fitzpatrick, J.J., Jennings, A.E., Johnsen, S.J., Miller, G.H., Nerem, R.S. and Polyak, L. 2010.]
The big scare that the greenie alarmist movement, Hollywood and the MSM is always shouting about is the scare of accelerating and huge sea level increases. They speak of 3-foot increases by 2050, or 10, 20 and 80 foot increases by 2100.
Where did all these incredible sea increase predictions come from?
It turns out that all these frightening predictions share a couple things in common: one, they are based entirely on fantasy, with no scientific or empirical basis; and two, they have been fabricated by a minority of individuals seeking the limelight, which the MSM has gladly provided for them without a shred of fact-checking.
How do the over-the-top sea level increase predictions really compare to reality, though? Not well as the below chart reveals. (click on image to enlarge)
The blue bars of the chart represent both historical estimates of sea level increases and actual tide gauge and satellite measurements from recent periods. Scientists know there was a gigantic ice-sheet and glacier melt over thousands of years that raised the sea levels some 120 to 130 meters (390 to 425 feet). When averaged out over thousands of years, the sea level increase is estimated to have been about 5.0 to 7.5mm per year - with some years achieving an approximate 40mm increase.
How do more recent and current sea level increases compare to the historical record? First, it is widely recognized by all scientists that sea levels did not increase much over the 1,000 years prior to the mid-19th century. Around 1850, measurements reveal that sea levels started to increase, and interestingly, glaciers started to melt and recede, globally. Amazingly, this was decades before the modern influx of human CO2 emissions, yet it was just at the same time when natural global warming followed the frigid and freezing natural global cooling of the Little Ice Age. (For global warming alarmists, Hollywood and the MSM, this is just an "amazing" coincidence and certainly these natural cool/warm cycles could have nothing to do with modern sea levels increasing or glaciers melting.)
Regarding those current sea level measurements? Well, the remaining blue bars (starting with #6) from peer-reviewed, empirical evidence studies show increases for different time periods that range from less than 1mm/year to 3.1mm/year, with the single year of 1980 recording a 5.3mm increase. In summary, all of these studies are based in reality and one can extrapolate (predict) from the empirical evidence that sea levels are increasing at about a one-foot per century rate, which even the IPCC concurs with. A one-foot increase by 2100 is entirely manageable and entirely non-scary.
Climate alarmist scientists needing government funding for their global warming catastrophe research do not like this inconvenient empirical evidence; and, for that matter, nor does the MSM since it relies on doom and gloom stories for increased readership and viewers.
Unfortunately, for those that embrace and promote global warming fears and climate change ("disruption") catastrophes, the most current sea level evidence is especially disheartening. Indeed, the last several years of tide gauge/GPS/satellite measurements have recorded global sea level increases that are trending to zero (see bar #'s 18 and 19).
How do the predictions of scientists or climate models compare to reality based on current evidence? Some predictions are in the realm of reality and they are represented by the gold bars - reasonable, with most being higher than what recent measurement studies indicate.
The predictions with orange bars represent those that are starting to escape the world of reality, though. Typically, these are "worst" case scenarios with a very low likelihood of occurrence due to their extreme assumptions.The vast majority of scientists would not agree to climate model predictions that excessively exceed both historical estimates and current measurement studies of sea level increases.
Then there are the red-bar predictions from a distinct minority of alarmists and scientists that get all the attention of the MSM press and Hollywood. These "red-bar" predictions literally are fantasy designed exclusively to gain the attention of the feeble-minded, unable to critically think. Ultimately, these predictions can't even be considered science fiction since they are not based on a scintilla of scientific evidence.
Not surprisingly, the red-bar predictions raise some very important contradictions that global warming alarmists would prefer not to reveal (besides not comporting to recent evidence), including:
1. They claim that the predictions are based on ancient evidence over the last 20,000 years that the world was significantly warmer, which caused large sea level increases. Note, they are stating categorically that modern temperatures are not "unprecedented" and the world will return to those significantly warmer past temperatures in the near future (which is not actually looking so "hot" based on the actual evidence.)
2. The ancient warmer world happened when CO2 atmospheric levels were well below the modern, industrial levels - there were no human CO2 emissions that caused the world to warm and the ice to melt.
3. When the ancient world warmed, ice sheets and low elevation glaciers were spread all across the northern hemisphere, well into the non-polar areas. Those no longer exist, which means there is not enough ice to melt in the non-polar regions that will deliver sea level increases that would rival ancient increases.
4. The vast majority of today's ice sheets and glaciers are located in areas of extreme cold temperatures (high latitudes and/or high elevations) that minimize the potential of melting. For example, at the Greenland ice sheet Summit, current annual temperatures are -31.0°C, and for the Vostok-Antarctica station on the polar ice sheet the respective temperature is a -55.0°C. Both of these extremely cold areas hypothetically could suffer a 20° increase in temperatures and nothing is going to melt - and by the way, no sane scientist even hypothesizes a 20°C increase in these polar areas.
5. Recent studies of ice mass loss at both Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets show that the wild-ass, speculative predictions of climate alarmist scientists and their climate/ice sheet models are galactically over-estimating the losses.
To summarize Mr/Ms new Republican elected-official, the scary sea level predictions are pure fantasy, derived not from empirical, scientific evidence, but from the incessant, non-factual speculations of a minority of individuals seeking fame, power, control and fortune. These predictions are designed to pressure you to vote for more climate research funding, and also to vote for the increased taxation of consumers and small businesses to assure the subsidization of green-energy investments by wealthy investors and large corporations - it's as simple as that.
Sources for chart:
Read here and here. Climate alarmist "scientists," such as Heidi Cullen, Barbara Boxer and Scarlett Johansson loudly proclaim that accelerating sea level rise, of anywhere from 36 inches to 240 inches, will swamp coastal areas and cause massive death and destruction.
Fortunately for the rest of humanity, the brain-dead-bimbo brigade is totally clueless about the ongoing scientific research on sea levels and the latest empirical evidence. The most recent peer-reviewed research finds that the GRACE satellite measurements have sea levels increasing on average only 4 inches per century (1mm per year).
This latest empirical evidence confirms what leading sea level experts and C-AGW skeptics have been saying for years: Al Gore'ian predictions of catastrophic, accelerating sea level increases are B.S. (click on image to enlarge)
Riva et al. 2010 [Riccardo E. M. Riva, Jonathan L. Bamber, David A. Lavallée & Bert Wouters]