Article: The global warming, climate change alarmists have lost the scientific debate so badly that the NSF felt obligated to fund the development of a green propaganda manual to be used in their never ending fear-mongering campaign.
Article: The global warming, climate change alarmists have lost the scientific debate so badly that the NSF felt obligated to fund the development of a green propaganda manual to be used in their never ending fear-mongering campaign.
Article: NASA temperature records for Antarctica peninsula show no real warming since the late 1980s - a 'pause' that predates the global one, despite record levels of atmospheric CO2.
Article: Modern climate change and global warming not outside boundaries of natural variability.
Article: The green/left/progressive penchant for those extreme, scary climate change, anti-science predictions is never ending - as David Barber proves.
Article: Growth of regional South Pole sea ice is severely hampering resupply at research bases in Antarctica.
This peer-reviewed study confirms that extreme warming took place in China, at the approximate times that Europe was experiencing the warming of the Medieval and Minoan periods.
Unprecedented global warming over a vast swath of the world took place in antiquity.
It is accurate to conclude that natural climate change is a powerful force in terms of promoting significant temperature change regimes - simply, human CO2 emissions are not required to do so.
"Using multi-proxy records -- including data on pollen, charcoal, phytoliths, total nitrogen, total organic carbon and loss-on-ignition from a 268-cm-long sediment core...The six scientists report that one of what they call the "significant climate events during this period" was the Medieval Warm Period, which held sway from approximately AD 700-1200, and which they say "was also revealed at some other sites in Xinjiang,...which was about 1.3°C higher than what had been the case at any other time over the past 3,000 years"
Additional peer-reviewed studies.
It's another day and another stubborn climate fact: global sea ice is not melting as expected by the experts.
Unexpectedly for the IPCC and associates, the trend is flat, despite the greatest growth in human CO2 emissions ever recorded.
At this point, it would be safe to say that the empirical evidence confirms that past hysterical projections of a global sea ice meltdown by global warming alarmists were without true scientific merit, due to being based on an untested and weak hypothesis that humans would cause catastrophic climate change.
Damn those stubborn facts!
The new study examined 118 years of empirical evidence and discovered that small Pacific islands are not disappearing under the waves of a rising ocean. Instead, the tiny atoll islands are actually growing larger.
It's another climate change 'Ooopsie'.
A new article over at NoTricksZone brings us yet another example of scientific fraud perpetrated by the national climate agencies.
As the adjacent chart from the NTZ article documents, NOAA's definitive manipulations of a U.S. states climate records to enhance the modern global warming trend is indisputable.
As the engineering physicist who analyzed the recent NOAA dataset for Maine concluded:
"In my opinion, this is out-and-out fraud. Why did they corrupt national climate data? Global warming is a $27 billion business on an annual basis in the U.S alone...They have corrupted Maine climate data between 1895 and present by a whopping accumulated 151.2°F."
Using the updated HC4 global anomalies dataset, since 1955 the global temperature trend for intermediate and long-term periods has never exceeded 1.8 degrees per century, let alone the fabled 2.0° mark, as of calculations based on the March 31, 2015 date.
As the adjacent graph reveals, the latest 10 year trend since 2005 has dropped to a barely measurable 0.4°/century and the last 18 years (since 1997) is an eyelash higher at 0.67°/century - and by the way, both of these figures are essentially climate-impact insignificant.
Why 1997? Well...there has been very little warming since 1997. What warming there has been is robustly below what "expert" climate models projected. Climate scientists typically refer to this unexpected deceleration as the 'hiatus' or 'pause'.
Per the chart of empirical evidence, the deceleration of global warming is evident from the fitted trend curve.
Sticking with that last 18-year trend as of March 2015, how does the most recent period stack up versus other 18-year periods when the entire HC4 dataset from 1850 is analyzed?
Since 1850, there has been 1,983 months of reported temperatures. From those, 1,768 18-year trend datapoints can be calculated.
The March 2015 18-year trend datapoint ranks number #875 - so, approximately half of the past datapoints possess a higher 18-year trend.
Yet atmospheric CO2 growth since 1964, as represented by the green circles on the graph, has been non-stoppable, blowing well past the hypothetical "safe" 350ppm level to reach the highest modern CO2 level ever.
This combination of temperature acceleration datapoints and CO2 measurements clearly demonstrates that CAGW accelerated warming does not exist; and it is unequivocally, irrefutably, undeniably and non-debatable that the world is experiencing a rather tepid, 'luke-warming' environment.
Historically, today's temperature trends are entirely within in the realm of what has taken place in the past from natural temperature variation, regardless of CO2 levels.
In other words, it is indisputable that the current climate does not suffer from "dangerous" man-made warming.
One could say that this infallible empiricism defines the non-religious, scientific climate change reality, so-to-speak.
Notes: Interpreting the above chart's blue columns: for example, since 1984 (see yellow box) the last 31 years (see corresponding blue column X-axis label) the warming trend was 1.73C/century, as of the 31-year period ending March 2015. The green circles are simple calendar year atmospheric CO2 measurements - the first (leftmost) circle represents 1964 and the last green circle is 2014. All blue columns representing temperature trends use at least 100 months of temperature measurements for the trend calculations (using less than 100 can produce extreme volatility for calculated trends - the less than 100 datapoint calculations are very interesting but can be quite misleading). Excel was used to calculate the different period trends (using Excel's slope function); Excel's charting function was used to plot the trend datapoints. Those stubborn facts: source of UK MetOffice H4 dataset; source of atmospheric annual CO2 levels.
There are past periods of extreme weather and severe natural disasters that just stand out as examples of strange climate activity and weird 'earthly' behavior.
The decade of the 1970s is one such period of bizarre, freaky and dangerous weather that prompted serious scientific discussions regarding global climate change at the time.
And the most discussed condition of climate change that had the focus of scientists and government experts?
Below is a list of early 1970's weather (and other natural disaster) events and links to multiple articles about the most popular climate change hypothesis at the time.
And these adjacent movie posters?
Pure Hollywood, utilizing anti-science propaganda masquerading as possible climate catastrophic conditions from global warming.
And try guessing the audience that embraces the gutter of such doomsday garbage - of course, you aren't surprised are you?
Articles from early 1970s:
Ahhh...those stubborn facts. They can be so inconvenient.
The global warming political agenda requires proof that temperatures are getting hotter.
If "hotter," then the public will of course need the government to step in and save them from dangerous hot temperatures.
But what happens when the modern maximum temperatures do not fit the agenda by not being as hot as those experienced in the distant past, earlier in the 20th century?
Well, in the case of NOAA, they just fabricate the "proof."
By simply lowering adjusting past annual maximum U.S. temperatures down until they are below the modern era temps; plus, to provide a little oomph, they raise the modern maximums a bit.
As this chart reveals, NOAA massively lowered the past temperatures prior to the 1990's. The broad black curve is the 5-year mean of the maximum U.S monthly temperatures originally measured and recorded.
And the broad blue curve? That's the 5-year mean of maximum temperatures after NOAA finished with their fabrications adjustments.
Figuratively, with a few strokes of the keyboard, NOAA manipulated the long-standing historical climate records in order to present needed "evidence" that fits with the political agenda.
Unfortunately for the reputation and credibility of science, this style of empirical evidence falsification is widespread, with government climate "scientists" leading the way it would appear.
Note: Original source of chart; the animated gif image was separated into its two frames using '7GIF.' The colors of the the two frames were then changed to be different. Then one graph was superimposed on another.
This chart depicts historical precipitation and temperature reconstruction from northern China.
Overlaid on the chart by 'C3' are significant Chinese events from the past, along with identification of major solar states (minimums and maximums).
The scientists who compiled the precipitation/temperature records and produced the reconstructions had summarized that solar influence was climatically significant for China due to the affect on annual monsoons.
Using Wikipedia, major war/violence/political events were identified and then added to the chart (color bars).
To the more than casual viewer, it would certainly appear that a cooler climate regime has a higher association with extreme organized violence than a warmer period.
The chart's green curve indicates that those periods with less precipitation (i.e. droughts) are more common when cooler temps prevail - more arid conditions, with less food production make people (and societies) rather restless.
The unequivocal and indisputable climate research clearly demonstrates that climate change is constant; and when combined with historical accounts and anecdotal evidence, warmer climates tend to favor prosperity and peace outcomes while cooler periods provide more of the opposite.
Note: 'C3' originally wrote about this research in 2011. There was a recent article at Ice Age Now (and a YouTube video) using another 'C3' chart with significant Chinese events being overlaid on the Greenland ice core temp reconstructions (that prompted our doing the same for the above northern China chart). Wikipedia info page sources: here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here.
Recent examinations by analysts Paul Homewood, Tony Heller and others confirm that a wide variety of official temperature datasets have been excessively manipulated by climate "scientists" - to the point where policymakers can no longer be sure if climate records can be trusted.
The blatant temperature manipulation perpetrated on the public has been, for the most part, an esoteric issue discussed by individuals familiar with temperature record analyses. (Peer reviewed research indicates that the fake-warming likely represents 25 to 50% of reported global warming by the climate agencies.)
In the past, the mainstream press essentially ignored the anti-science temperature record fabrications, but no longer.
And as this cartoon indicates, the consensus science establishment is being mocked for the exposed temperature lies.
Wouldn't it be great if we all could just trust what the establishment science states about actual climate temperature changes and trends? But we can't, as they have categorically proven to be driven by agendas other than scientific truth. One just needs to connect-the-dots, so to speak, to discern what is really happening.
Indeed, the preponderance of evidence from the officially manipulated temperature datasets indicates fabricated cooling adjustments being applied to periods pre-1980 and a fabricated warming since 1980.
Examples of documented questionable climate record adjusting by the climate agency officials are not hard to find: Melbourne, U.S. western areas, 1997 global versus 2014, winter 2014, U.S corn belt, Texas winter temps, Paraguay, Africa, Iceland, GISS land temps, northern hemisphere pre-1940, Alice Springs (Australia), Bolivia, U.S. temperature trends, Arctic adjustments, Antarctica, New Zealand, Australia, Germany, and many others.
The net effect of the joint cooling and warming adjustments appears to be two-fold in support of the UN/IPCC political science political "science" agenda.
One, the overall warming trend is enhanced, which is then attributed to increased CO2 by the government agency scientists, versus stating that their underlying temp adjustments were the real "enhancement" cause. Two, bureaucrats (both transnational and national), politicians and journalists demand global warming/climate change talking points - thus the creation of higher (i.e. warmer) current temps than any temperatures exhibited earlier in the 20th century.
One of the unintended and humorous consequences of climate record fabrications has been the nonsensical and irrational explanations as to why enhanced global warming is producing colder and more severe winters. The faux-warming has now necessitated the fabrication of new global warming capabilities that are entirely inconsistent with known weather physics and history.
Recent winter weather examples that have caused CAGW alarmists to expose their anti-science rationales include:
Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Halifax, Crimea, New Brunswick, Newark, Prince Edward Island, Boston, Italy, Wales, Mexico, India, Cape Cod, Bulgaria, Delaware, Balkans, Ohio, Pyrenees, Ontario, Europe, Kentucky, Indiana, France, Texas, Seattle, Tibet, Afghanistan, Buffalo, Great Lakes, Japan, Southern California, Iowa, New York, New Mexico, Montreal and even Cuba.
Unfortunately, the anti-science of climate science will continue since it appears to be prerequisite of research funding - in simple words, scientists are forced to support the consensus green political agenda in order to survive and thrive.
Additional temperature adjustment analysis charts.
This single chart compilation by govt researchers confirms what multiple studies have shown over and over again...natural climate change rules, regardless of CO2 greenhouse emissions.
Several obvious points from this research pictorial.
A. Past natural climate change has produced extreme volatility and variation.
B. Reconstructed temperature proxies reveal multiple climatic periods of acceleration and levels of cooling/warming that far exceed what the modern era has experienced.
C. Modern global warming is not extreme nor unique, even compared to the relatively recent period of the Minoan/Bronze age civilizations.
D. Current temperatures would not have to drop by that much for Earth to enter an ice age glaciation period.
E. Earth has been in an overall cooling mode for the last 10 million years.
These 5 scientific factual points are indisputable, undeniable, irrefutable and unequivocal. [Editor opinion: Any scientist, politician, bureaucrat or journalist/pundit who states otherwise is a definitive climate change denier - or, maybe 'anti-science' liar would be a more apt label for those denying what climate science has proven to be fact.]
Two more points to be considered.
First, the DOE scientists who produced this chart attached instrument thermometer readings to reconstructed proxy estimates. This is truly an apple-to-orange comparison without any scientific validity. It's a science 'no-no' in lay terms. In addition, modern era proxy reconstructions reveal a temperature decline since 1960 that these DOE scientists conveniently fail to mention identify.
Second, it has been well established by multiple analysts that modern climate records have been heavily manipulated by govt "scientists" to fabricate faux-warming over vast regions of the globe. It is now estimated that large swaths have had their climate records "adjusted" upward by at least 0.4C over the last 20 years. To appreciate the huge extent of the temperature fabrication, visit these search links: here, here, here, here and charts here.
When these two considerable factors are taken into account, the actual modern warming that has occurred is likely better represented by the mauve arrow added to the chart on the right side.
Alas, in the scheme of actual climate empirical evidence, modern warming is not so much as it turns out. It's those stubborn facts, again.
This updated NOAA U.S. temperature map is a stark reminder of the incredibly cold climate that northern and eastern areas of the US have recently experienced. The bitter cold, in particular, impacted those regions east of the Mississippi River, with states butting up against Canada taking the brunt.
It's also a reminder of those predictions by NASA experts and computer models, as promulgated during 1988 congressional testimony, that accelerated global warming would significantly impact the U.S., with many "experts" then claiming our future was one of warmer winters and no snow.
More to that point is the adjacent chart of US Nov/Dec/Jan temperatures (28 years) and trends since that 1988 testimony. It represents the following 8 states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine (all these states are east of the Mississippi and share a border with Canada).
To summarize the chart essentials:
1. Winter temperatures (Nov/Dec/Jan) exhibit a strong variability (the blue columns). Clearly, increasing atmospheric CO2 levels during this period has not caused ever-warmer winters.
2. Many of the winters are below the 1988 average of 27.58°F, including the winters of 2014 and 2015. (see blue dashed line)
3. Despite the very warm winter of 2002, the overall warming trend (orange curves) of winter temperatures has collapsed to a cooling trend of -5.7°F. There is no escaping the obvious NOAA empirical evidence that greenhouse gases are not producing the predicted accelerated warming.
4. The 10-year average winter temperature (the green curve) peaked in 2007 from a low experienced in 1989. Without any doubt, those few very exceptional warm winters (5 of the 28 winter datapoints) have definitely moved the average up. With that said, since 2007 it has declined slightly.
Is the U.S. just a rare anomaly where a cooling winter trend, not warming, is happening? Unfortunately, for the public and CAGW-scientists, regions with cooling trends are becoming more common.
Additional current empirical evidence that CO2 does not cause dangerous "warming" winters:
Note: Source of dataset for 8-state winter temperature chart produced by Excel. Using Excel calculated the 8-state winter months average; the 10-year trends and averages that begin with year 1988 on the chart used U.S. winter (Nov/Jan/Dec) temperature data starting with November 1979. The 1988 blue-diamond column on chart represents year of James Hansen global warming testimony.
As the U.S. East Coast continues to dig out from another major blizzard, it is a reminder that natural climate forces and patterns have eviscerated the predictions made by by government climate "experts." Their predictions of warmer winters and less snow have not only been incorrect, they have been flat-out spectacularly wrong.
While ignorance is bliss for many, it is still is no excuse for the elites of politics and media to continue to spread falsehoods about CO2 causing warming winters.
As the above NOAA graphs clearly document, the strong cooling trend for the winter months of December (19 years), January (21 years) and February (20 years) across the U.S. northeast is indisputable.
Let's be clear about this: there is no identifiable group of climate-doomsday experts within government-funded circles who predicted twenty years ago that CO2 would cause this cooling trend outcome.
And precipitation trends over the same time periods in the Northeast? Well, depending on the month, take your pick, up or down. For any given winter month, one year of cold temperatures could produce a wet or a dry month.
It would appear that winter weather is not that predictable from year to year; and obviously, nor are climate conditions some 10, 20 30 or 50 years into the future.
Those who have relied on the CO2-induced AGW climate hypothesis have continuously been proven wrong. Yet, the CO2 cult faithful still hold climate doomsday predictions as gospel, regardless of the empirical science.
Name a single individual scientist, government official or blue-ribbon commission that publicly announced 10 to 20 years ago that all the historical climate temperature records were wrong, and thus there was a need for all to be altered carte blanche to conform to certain pattern.
That's right, you can't.
Hmmm...maybe because there never was a debate/discussion about a proposed blatant altering of historical evidence.
With absolutely no public concurrence to do so, non-elected climate scientists just decided to make it happen.
It's science on its worst agenda-driven behavior.
Of course, when the empirical truth comes out regarding the overstatement of global warming by govt climate researchers they then wonder why the public has a growing distrust of science and government.
Recently, climate analyst Paul Homewood has had a slew of articles regarding the very questionable alterations of various climate station records. His research has documented multiple instances of "adjustments", from the top of the world to the bottom, with the end result always being that late 20th century global warming appears to be greater than the originally recorded - but only after the adjustments.
An example of his work are the two climate station records in the accompanying graphs. One station is in Iceland and the other in Paraguay. Both examples reveal that historical, originally recorded temperatures of the past were significantly reduced, which obviously makes the recent modern global warming appear more unusual.
This is the "unprecedented" modern warming that advocates relentlessly push. But it is only unprecedented because the past temperatures were so drastically altered - literally, it's fake unprecedented warming relative to the cooling alternations applied primarily to the pre-1970 temperatures.
Multiple articles from the near past have been written about the continuing "global warming" fabrications by climate agencies - here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here. It's not a pretty picture of supposed objective truth-seeking science.
Yet, indications from 3rd party analysis (here and here) indicates that potentially one-half of the hypothetical +0.8°C global warming since 1850 may be a result of the massive temperature adjustments applied to the entire historical record.
'Hypothetical' because the climate agencies cannot say with confidence what actual global temperatures were in the past (or are now):
"It is not possible to calculate the global average temperature anomaly with perfect accuracy because the underlying data contain measurement errors and because the measurements do not cover the whole globe."...
Finally, it would be one thing if climate agencies adjusted past temperatures with a one-time correction for any of the poorly reported historical temperatures. It's a whole different ballgame when climate agencies "correct" all past monthly historical temperatures every few months.
For example, did you know that NOAA/NCDC has "corrected" the January 1939 global temperature at least 7 times over the last 24 months? This is the count only when considering the 2nd decimal point changes. For corrections out to the 4th decimal point, it is highly likely January 1939 has been corrected 24 times out of the last 24 months.
And this is true for every single month going back to 1880.
Here's a commonsense suggestion to finally improve the credibility of climate science, and, most importantly, to assure the public's confidence in the global warming reported in the future:
An appointed 3rd party audit should be conducted by a team of non-climate scientists on all historical raw climate station temperatures; one-time corrections would then be applied utilizing a scientifically/statistically agreed upon standard; and, once corrected, past temperatures can never be "corrected" again by climate researchers.
Voila, the ongoing and distracting debate about the accuracy and truthfulness of global land/sea temperature records is smothered, once and for all.
How to pay for such a scientific endeavor? Easy. Take a few billion away from the spectacularly failed climate model efforts, especially since the current models rely on the fabricated temperature records. No wonder they're always so wrong.
No matter how many years go by, the trend towards ever worse climate model predictions continues.
Case in point: The NASA/Hansen climate model that was used by climate experts to convince the politicians, the media and pubic that the world was at severe risk for massive global warming if greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were not drastically cut.
This model's predictions came to the forefront when NASA's James Hansen provided testimony to the U.S. Senate in 1988. As it was discovered much later, the Hansen testimony was stage-crafted for maximum fear-mongering impact, which should have been the first clue that there was a credibility issue regarding the climate model.
Before diving into the details, a short glance at the accompanying chart provides the critical policymaker insight:
The following provides more details:
The newly published 2014 IPCC AR5 summary report bemoaned the recent significant growth increase of GHGs. The IPCC established the per year growth, prior to 2000, to be at a 1.3% rate. The IPCC AR5 reports that GHG growth has now jumped to 2.2% per year through 2010 (see more details here).
[Editor: Speaking to CO2 emissions more specifically, using the 1999 year-end global CO2 emission level as the base year, CO2 emissions have grown at an average 3.0% per year pace as of the end of 2013. That's 14 years of exceptional growth. In contrast, the 14 years of CO2 growth prior to 1988 is only 1.8% per year (read below as to why prior to 1988).]
To say that GHGs have exceeded the 'business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario would be an understatement - according to the IPCC AR5, a 70% increase has taken place, on a per year basis.
Of course, the BAU scenario was made famous by during that 1988 U.S. Senate hearing.
Per Hansen: "We have considered cases ranging from business as usual, which is scenario A, to draconian emission cuts, scenario C, which would totally eliminate net trace gas growth by year 2000."
In a peer-reviewed article supporting his testimony, he stated that the 1970s and 1980s had an approximate annual growth average of 1.5% (prior to 1988). This was the paper's BAU 'Scenario A' that he spoke of in his testimony. In his written Senate statement, he included an appendix that verifies the ~1.5% BAU estimate for GHGs, plus a chart that depicted the scenarios A, B and C.
That chart is replicated above, with Scenario 'A' being the green curve; the 'B' scenario is the orange curve; and the cyan curve is the 'C' scenario, which represents the 'draconian' emission cuts Hansen states are required to minimize potential global warming.
As stated previously, the IPCC has confirmed the rapid, continuing growth of GHGs since the end of 1999, which per the NASA climate model, should have produced global warming equal to the bright green curve on the chart.
Instead, climate reality and natural climatic forces intruded - real world temperatures since 1988 resemble the cyan temperature curve of "draconian" emission cuts that Hansen's testimony implied would necessarily make global warming safe by end of 2014.
As it turns out, some 25+ years later at the end of 2014, we currently have achieved that implied 'safe' global warming that the climate modelers and experts predicted would not happen unless there were forced gigantic emission cuts.
Objectively, the empirical evidence leads to a couple of reality-based, undeniable and incontrovertible conclusions: policymakers should not rely on the unreliable climate models - they're egregiously wrong and not getting much better; and, climate experts truly do not understand the natural forces dominating the climate system.
Notes: This updated NASA/Hansen chart now uses the current HC4 and GISS V3 datasets, as of 12/31/14. Instead of plotting individual year datapoints for observed temperatures, plotted 3-year (36-month averages ending in December): this reflects an expectation that models can't predict accurately every annual period, but over longer 3-year periods the model and observation trends should better match. Starting in 1960, both GISS and HC4 3-year averages were offset to start at zero (0.0°C) anomaly. To reduce the clutter on chart, only 'even' year observed 3-year temperature datapoints were plotted. The small insert chart is data from IPCC AR5 summary report. The green, orange and cyan Hansen model plots came from this climate-doomsday site.
Using the UK's MetOffice global HadCRUT4 (HC4) dataset as a proxy for long-term climate change, it allows for a breakdown of when such changes occurred.
For this article's definitional purposes, long-term change is defined at those points where the HC4 30-year global average shifted to a new level (up or down) by 0.1°C, for at least 12-months in a row.
[Editor: Why ±0.1 changes and not ±0.01? Because long-term changes of hundredths of a degree is an absurd and statistically bogus change-assessment technique for 12 months, let alone 360 months.]
The adjacent chart depicts those ±0.1 changes. As can be observed, there have been a total of 10 shifts since the 1850-beginning of this global instrument dataset.
Does all of the above mean that the future will be an exact repeat of the pattern? Well, the definitive answer to that is 'no'.
There is no denying that, in general, modern climate change closely resembles what has taken place in the past. The similarities are evident, despite short-term climate variations that produce observable differences in duration, levels and intensity.
As the latest peer-reviewed research indicates, modern climate scientists are finally rediscovering (for example and example) the climate truths that their predecessors were aware of: natural earthly/solar/cosmic forces produce repeating (and similar) climate oscillations/cycles, creating dominant influences that dictate overall patterns for long-term climate change.
Yes, the human influence does exist, but it is a distinctly minor player in the long-term scheme of climate patterns.
And because these amazing pattern similarities happen in a chaotic system, they can neither be predicted, nor controlled. Those stubborn facts are continually ignored by advocates of human-caused climate change predictions.
Note: This monthly temperature dataset and Excel used to calculate moving 30-year averages. First, monthly anomalies were used to calculate a 12-month average for each month. Then using an estimate of 14.0C for the global temperature average of the 20th century, 12-month absolute temperatures were calculated from the calculated 12-month average anomalies. Finally, 30-year (360-month) absolute global averages were calculated. Excel's rounding function used to identify ±0.1C changes.
The HadCRUT4 (HC4) global temperature dataset is now considered the gold-standard for surface temperatures (the previous gold-standard was the HC3 dataset).
Using the annual HC4 calculated temperatures, the adjoining chart was created.
As observed, the global temperatures have essentially stalled since 1998, with 2014 likely not greater than that reached in 1998.
This chart also delineates the two major warming periods since 1850. The first from 1917 to 1944; the last from 1976 to 1998. The warming trend increase of the latter over the former was a paltry +0.4 per century - an increase well within what one would expect from natural variability, regardless of CO2 levels.
And then there's the CO2 growth itself.
The 20-year growth rates show an almost continuous climb since the early 1950's. At the end of 2014, it was the highest ever. This greater than 'business-as-usual' growth was discussed in the latest IPCC AR5 report - the growth rate for total greenhouse gases has followed a similar path.
Finally, the chart depicts where the much discussed 2º, 4º and 6º increases over the 1850 global temperature would be... see the red dashed lines.
How long to reach the 2º mark that elites fear so much? Well, per the last 18 years, that trend would indicate another 150+ years before the 2 degree increase would ever be reached.
From this empirical evidence, it would be fair to surmise that invoking more big government polices and regulations to combat unsubstantiated climate-doomsday speculation might not be in the best interests of the public.
Additional modern temperature charts.
Note: Trends of the past are not reliable predictors of future.
Very, very not likely, as it turns out.
As the adjacent chart shows, the reported 2014 HadCRUT4 (HC4) global temperature with its estimated error bars (±0.1°C) may have been the warmest, and then again.....there are 15 prior years that may have been warmer when considering all the error bar implications.
To add another consideration to the analysis, why should one blindly accept that the margin of error is only ±0.1°C?
Maybe it's time for both the policymakers and public to recognize that the margin of error should be at least ±0.2°C for global temperatures, as reported by the major climate agencies.
As a numerous experts are discovering, and clearly documenting, the major climate research agencies have been practicing a wholesale change (i.e. adjusting, manipulating, fabricating, etc.) of the reported empirical measurements. The result? The recent global surface temperature datasets are now much warmer than originally reported.
And it is not difficult for the non-government climate science experts to identify locations across the globe where temperatures have been "adjusted" up well past the supposed margin error upside of +0.1°C.
This means that the commonly used margin of error as currently applied does not take into consideration the plethora of recent questionable manipulations to make the world "warmer." Put another way: the margin of error does not account for the identified 'scientist-caused' global warming.
Case in point.
During early 2014, the MetOffice replaced the world's gold-standard HadCRUT3 (HC3) global temp dataset with their new HC4. When one applies the more probable ±0.2°C error range to the cooler HC3 dataset, the result is that there are actual years during the decade of the 1970's that would have matched the 2014 HC3 reported temp; and multiple years of the 80's that would have exceeded.
Conclusion: From a variety of measurement tools, it is known that the world has warmed overall since the 1970s. It is now indisputable that the MetOffice/NASA/NOAA surface temperature datasets have "mysteriously" and significantly diverged from the satellite temperature measurements that they so well matched in the past. It is also well established that the surface datasets are constantly being adjusted upward on a frequent basis. Because of these questionable adjustments, the commonly used margin of error is most likely too narrow. In order to compensate for these human endeavors to enhance the "global warming" storyline, the margin of error range applied by policymakers should at least be doubled, if not more.
This is not brain surgery. This is not rocket science. This is not nuclear physics.
This is climate science fact versus climate science fiction (i.e. computer model simulations).
Climate science fiction: For the last 10 year-period, the UN's IPCC climate models predicted greenhouse global warming equaling a per century trend of 1.7°C.
Climate fact: The globe warmed at only a +0.2°C/century trend. In other words, global warming has stalled, paused, or if one prefers, in a hiatus condition.
Simply put, the computer simulations programmed by CAGW alarmists produced virtual global warming 8 times greater than climate reality.
This spectacular failure by models (developed by the "consensus" experts) is well documented. And as of this date, there are over 50+ excuses reasons by these "experts" as to why their billion-dollar climate simulations have turned out to be worthless for policymakers.
Article source for above climate model predictions.
Ocean expert Bob Tisdale's recent article delineated the various warming trends of the key ocean basins.
Previously, 'C3' published an article about the non-"unequivocal" nature of global warming. That article also provided insight as to locations of the much feared "dangerous" and "rapid" global warming - turns out the only locations are the concrete/asphalt environs of airports and major urban/metro areas.
So, what does the actual ocean-deep warming empirical evidence presented on this chart tell us? (Remember, this is the warmed-up data presented after bureaucrat sceintists adjusted the raw measurment data.)
#1. On a per century trend basis, global warming of the oceans is barely happening.
#2. Unequivocal ocean warming is not taking place - note that neither the Pacific or North Atlantic exhibit a warming that is climate significant (in fact, one could claim their warming is likely a function of measurement error and/or those "adjustments").
#3. The oceans are not going to be boiling from CO2 emissions as predicted by NASA's top climate expert.
#4. If 72% of the world's surface and Earth's atmosphere are not exhibiting accelerating and dangerous warming, then any claim that the entire globe is exhibiting those characteristics is a scientific falsehood, i.e. a blatant lie.
Hmmm...those stubborn climate facts can be sooo annoying.
However, if global warming is "unequivocal" from CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases as claimed, then how is it possible that major components and areas of the world are not warming?
As it turns out, where one actually measures temperature change is a huge factor whether the end result is "global" warming or not.
Simply put, as all climate scientists agree, urban/metro and airport areas are robustly warmer than surrounding areas, during both the daylight and night hours. And, as it turns out, they are warming at multiple times greater rate than rural regions.
They are not warmer because of more CO2 and methane. They are warmer because they have more people, cars, schools, stores, restaurants, planes, trucks, buses, trains, factories, concrete, asphalt, buildings, parking lots and etc.
And because of some very incredibly shortsighted decisions, the majority of climate stations are now located in the urban/airport areas, with most of the rural stations being eliminated. Thus, there now exists a built in bias impacting global warming calculations, which heat-up the actual climate reality.
How big is that bias impact? That's what the adjacent graph helps to reveal.
Take Reagan National Airport in the Washington DC metro. It's warming at an astounding +14.6F degrees per century pace over the last 15 years. Now compare that to a rural area about 170 miles west of DC, in the very northwest part of Maryland. (This portion of the country is called the Allegheny Plateau region a NOAA/NCDC designated climate division). It's cooling at a -3.1°F per century rate.
An 18 degree warming rate difference within a 3-hour journey? CO2 is not responsible for that.
So, why do the U.S. politicos, elites and media believe the world is "unequivocally" warming?
Because they live and work in highly urbanized areas that have the necessary attributes that cause a positive temperature feedback - often referred to as the Urban Heat Island effect (UHI). They are oblivious to the fact most of the world's populace does not live in these concrete-cocoon heat traps and are not experiencing ludicrous warming where the wealthy and powerful congregate.
Again, examine the above chart. Urban/airport warming locations (Reagan Natl, Dulles, Richmond and Baltimore) exhibit fast "global" warming growth. The two highly populated states (Virginia & Maryland) surrounding these urban regions show more moderate warming. And nearby rural areas (the Appalachia Mountain and Allegheny Plateau areas of Maryland) actually have cooled over the last 15 years.
Importantly, the rural areas' temperature cooling are more in line with the entire continental US climate, as shown.
Why does the U.S. exhibit an overall cooling trend for the last 15 years? Obviously, geographically, the U.S. has a much greater abundance of rural areas, similar to the Allegheny Plateau region, than urban/airport complexes. In fact, it is claimed over 90% of the U.S. is considered rural.
Memo to Republicans: For discussions and debates about climate change, use only official weather/climate station thermometer datasets located in rural regions and/or from satellites. Urban/airport thermometers do not measure temperature change from CO2/GHG climate change - they measure temperature change produced by the concrete-cocoon urbanization. Demand that NOAA/NASA/EPA primarily report satellite/rural temperature changes as a leading indicator for potential greenhouse gas influences. Dismiss with contempt those global warming calculations that are quoted which include the hot airport/urban thermometers.
Note: Source for urban and regional 15-year annual temperature datasets. Above Excel chart only shows per century linear trends calculated by Excel, not the annual datapoints. For the chart, adjusted y-axis to better fit all trends on a single viewable image for the article.
Remember this statement from climate alarmists over the last few years?
===> "Global warming causes greater amounts of snow and cold for the U.S. due to the fact that the Arctic is melting."
If that is true, then we should witness greater and greater amounts of snow accumulating across the continental U.S., year in, year out.
Of course, in the first place, there is only flimsy weather conjecture behind the "Arctic ice melting causes more snow/cold in the continental U.S." statement - it's just another convenient excuse to blame global warming for any and all severe weather events.
And as this map reveals, there is essentially zilch empirical evidence supporting that snow/cold excuse statement, despite the last two decades being marginally warmer. The climate reality is that almost all the original record-setting snow accumulations happened well before 1990.
Why is that important?
Well, the climate lies like this one are really easy to spout, which a compliant mainstream press then gleefully repeats, without even asking a single challenging question or doing any due diligence. This results in the public having a false impression that there must be scientific truth behind the claims, versus the anti-science speculative guessing the claims actually represent.
Ultimately, these mistruths then mislead everyone about the climate science reality, with the empirical evidence being shunted to the side.
The result? False science, and the ignorance of the climate data, leads to bad policy-making decisions and an immense wasting of valuable resources.
And that's not good for the taxpaying public.
h/t for map, Mike Smith, author and weather expert.
Tornadoes. They're dangerous and they're unsympathetic killers.
These extreme weather events are officially categorized in severity from 'EF0' to 'EF5' - with the higher number being the rarest of the killer tornadoes.
As this chart reveals, the good news for the U.S. is that the categories of severe tornadoes (E2-E5) are on the decline. The declining trends, since the 1950's period of lower atmospheric CO2 levels, are indisputable.
Based on a casual observation, one might conclude that increasing CO2 levels and global warming have curtailed these frightening weather phenomenon. Good!
Ahhh...those stubborn climate facts provided by NOAA are just sooo inconvenient at times, no?
Note: During the 2011 tornado season, there was a strong uptick but since then the severity T-counts have subsided, confirming the longer-term trend. 1950-2013 tornado dataset here. NOAA has not yet published official the 2014 severe tornado counts. Severe tornado counts for 2014 were confimed here, here, here, here, here and here. Above plots and trends produced using Excel.
One means to view the lack of climate extremes is to examine an interesting dataset that NOAA/NCDC maintains - the monthly % of U.S. that is either very wet and/or very dry. It has recently been updated through 2014.
As can be seen from this chart, very wet and very dry U.S. conditions fluctuate dramatically. Yet, some 45 years after 1970, the 5-year averages by the end of 2014 are close to the values decades before.
The huge increase of atmospheric CO2 levels from human emissions over this time obviously has had no impact (e.g. correlations of either climate condition with CO2 doesn't even reach the ±0.03 yawn mark).
This NOAA dataset extends all the way back to 1895; and the end result is its being, on average, within the same narrow range over the last century.
Despite the proclamations by those politicians and elites who are readily influenced by moneyed special interests, there is yet to be any empirical scientific evidence that CO2 is a causal agent producing extreme climate change or severe weather events.
Here's a reporter's excellent synopsis of what he found by simply investigating the exuberant claims of the "hottest year" and "warmest-ever"!
Although a lot of scientists (two examples, here and here) were quickly labeling the claims bogus, David Rose of the UK's Daily Mail was the first major newsprint reporter to actually do the journalism legwork that discredits claims by NASA (and NOAA). (Per standard operating procedure, the American press simply reported the NASA/NOAA press releases, with complete gullibility.)
The adjacent graph readily explains the NASA deceit (NOAA's deceit is similar). When the known error bars are added to the reported annual temperatures since 1998, one discovers that multiple previous years may have been warmer than 2014.
The facts are that no scientist can determine the world's "hottest" temperature - due to the statistical uncertainty, the margin of error doesn't allow for it. And it's simply lying not to inform the public of this.
That's why NASA's "experts" now say they are only 38% sure about 2014 being the "warmest-ever".
Yet these government-funded scientists will continue to mislead the public about the climate reality, and most "journalists" are too intellectually lazy (brainless?) or just too complicit to report the objective truth .
Note: Source of NASA annual temperatures. The black dashed line on Excel chart denotes the lower margin of error (±0.1°C) for the NASA 2014 reported annual temp.
As this chart of empirical evidence demonstrates, global warming has taken place in the past, well before the explosion of CO2 and other greenhouse gases.
And there have been times when earlier warming either equaled or exceeded modern warming. For the 25-year period shown, early 20th century warming was actually greater than the 25-yr warming through 2014.
For almost all consumers of the mainstream press, they are totally unaware that recent warming has no 'chops', so to speak.
It is not "unprecedented" and it certainly is less rapid than the earlier period. Also, the modern warming rate exhibits a 1.16°C per century trend. The earlier period? A 1.75°C/century trend.
Boiling it down to the numbers...that's 1.5x faster warming for 1920-1944, yet modern CO2 emissions had a growth 5.6x greater. That's the opposite of expert predictions.
Accurate and fair to say, modern warming is not exceptional.
Regardless of this unequivocal and indisputable scientific empirical evidence, which challenges the "consensus" global warming orthodoxy, the mainstream media chooses to gleefully push the latest discredited propaganda regarding the "hottest year ever" - an event that has been happening since the end of Little Ice Age, with an astoundingly great frequency.
Facts rule. The 'PR' exaggerations and embellishments are just anti-science dressed in those old fearmongering clothes. One's got to sell newspapers or web page hits, no?
Note: Source for annual NOAA temperatures used in Excel to calculate and plot 25-year temperature changes and linear trends. For the earlier period (1920-1944), 1919 was used as the base year; for the modern era, 1989 was the base year.
NASA's climate experts are on record for predicting all sorts of climate catastrophes, including extreme warming of the world's 'higher' latitudes (the world's polar/subpolar regions).
Certainly for Antarctica, that prediction was simply a spectacular failure.
Now comes information that NASA's "hottest-ever" year/decade has not produced a single hot temperature record in Canada since 1961. With Canadian lands mostly occupying the higher latitudes ('subarctic' starts at 50N), this is remarkable empirical evidence that the predicted extreme climate change is not so extreme.
The adjacent table of Canadian hottest temperatures recorded documents that this massive area near the top of the world has not experienced the natural hotter climate that it once had during the 1930s and 40s.
The table also includes the last 15 years of Canadian warmest temperatures - not a single year coming close to previous records with the exception of year 2007.
Note: Source for Canadian hottest temperatures - just some more of those inconvenient climate stubborn facts.
So, to put the "warmest-year-ever" into some context, 2014 was a measly +0.07C degree warmer than 1998. And that pretty much confirms that a global warming pause/hiatus/stall has been in effect since 1998, as discussed here and here.
Other interesting context:
1. Leaving super El Niño year 1998 out of the calculation, the 15-year increase over 1982 (1982-1997) was +0.35°C - a per year increase of +0.024.
2. Again, leaving 1998 out, the recent 15-year increase over 1999 (1999-2014) was just +0.12°C, for a per year increase of only +0.008.
3.The chart plots what those respective per year increases would turn into if they continued for the 85 years until the beginning of year 2100.
4. As seen, the earlier period had a warming per year almost 3 times greater than the last 15 years - did we say 'pause'?
5. Of course, the warming linear trend over that most recent 1999-2014 span (including NASA's newest hottest year/decade ever) is an even bigger LOL - a trend that equates to +0.26°C increase by 2100.
6. And, this 'not-so-hot' warming over the last 15 years took place when greenhouse gases reached record levels, and as the IPCC documented, are growing at an ever faster pace.
Conclusion: Catastrophic global warming, as NASA envisions, remains an elusive mythical possibility, despite their best efforts at paper-temperature enhancements. The "warmest-ever" claim is mere propaganda without any scientific or climate significance.
And NASA's "warming" over 1998 record? Less than warm spit and within the error bars.
Note: NASA/GISS dataset used for Excel chart.
Using an average of each year's monthly temperature anomalies (satellite measured), the adjacent chart's columns depict the huge shift in global temperatures from the prior 1998 level to the post-1998 level.
According to the state-of-the-art technology used by climate scientists, global warming has been unequaled since this 1998 natural event.
The only year that came close to the 1998 global temperature was 2010.
Although no single year has yet bested the 1998 temp record, the 16-year average after 1998 (including 2014) is significantly higher than the 16-year period prior. Natural climate change dramatically shifted global temperatures up, and they have not returned to the previous average level.
Instead, the annual global temperatures since 1998 have shown considerable variation, but do not reflect a pattern of temperature climate change shift - a shift only delivered by a natual phenomenon (like a super El Niño). In fact, the much researched 'Hiatus', which has existed for the last 15+ years, corroborates the lack of any impactful climate change since 1998.
As all scientists concur, the El Nino/La Nina climate oscillations take place without any human intervention or influence. Their frequency and intensity are a result of the chaotic climate system that makes it impossible for "experts" and computer models to accurately predict. Yet, when a 'big one' does occur the implications worldwide are enormous.
The overall billions spent on satellite technology has resulted in scientists being able to not only monitor these climate-significant ENSO events, the sophisticated technology has also proven to be the best means to measure the world's climate temperatures, 24/7, across the entire globe (99.6%) on a daily basis.
One way to assess the superb and spectacular satellite coverage is to envision over 127 million thermometers placed on the globe constantly taking temperature readings. In contrast, the traditional/conventional means of measuring temperatures by NOAA/NASA/UKMetOffice rely on less than 5,000 thermometers, each one supposedly recording temperature changes for a land area equal to the size of Spain.
So how does that old, traditional method work in order to determine a global temperature then? Essentially, they measure temperatures in a given specific location then use that sparse information combined with formulas to guesstimate temperatures in nearby regions.
Well, that's not too precise and is fraught with errors/biases that have to be constantly adjusted for. That's why it takes several weeks of number crunching and "adjusting" after the satellites have already reported their gold-standard global measurements.
For a good write-up on the difference between the state-of-the-art measurement technology and the old, conventional means, go here.
In the meantime, major climate change seems to be in a stalled status until the next major natural phenomenon takes place.
Note: Excel used with this dataset to calculate then plot year averages.
Way back in 1988, a NASA climate expert gave testimony that the 'high latitudes' (i.e. polar) would experience greater warming due to growth of human greenhouse gases (GHGs), including CO2 emissions.
This prediction was seized upon by global warming advocates as "proof" that the South Pole's unprecedented warming would melt sea ice and cause melting ice sheets to collapse, raising ocean levels and thus submerging worldwide coastal areas.
Indeed, there is strong evidence that GHGs have risen considerably - even to a greater extent then the feared 'business-as-usual' scenario NASA/GISS experts promulgated.
Yet the newest empirical research completely counters the fears and beliefs of the CAGW crowd: over the satellite era, some 30+ years, Antarctica's ice sheets have slightly grown and the South Pole's sea ice extent is at record levels.
Then there is the proverbial elephant in the CAGW room: the Antarctica region is not warming, per the advanced satellite technology of NASA. Those stubborn facts are indisputable and unequivocal.
Yet, denial of this empirical scientific evidence remains widespread, preventing a rational debate about the real implications of the ongoing natural climate change.
[Update: A reader inquired as to the correlation between the temperature anonmalies and monthly CO2 (ppm) levels - it was 0.015. This figure suggests that seeking a link between CO2 and South Pole temps may be barking up the wrong tree, so to speak.]
Clearly, over the last 30 years when CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases were skyrocketing, temperature trends here in the U.S. were significantly decelerating.
The deceleration of temperature warming is also seen in the major satellite measurements and the global land and sea observations, although not as pronounced as what took place in the continental U.S.
When the correlation is calculated for the chart's temperature trends and the average CO2 levels for each time period, the result is a -0.93 with a r2 of +0.86. That puts it in the universe of almost a perfect inverse (negative) correlation - higher CO2 levels seemingly drives temperatures to deceleration and cooling.
We say 'seemingly.' First, it pays to remember that trends are not predictions and don't go on forever - they change. Second, today's negative correlation could go positive in the not too distant future. And of course, third, whether it's positive or negative correlation it does not prove cause.
With those caveats stated, it is absolutely true that the consensus "physics" is not supported by the actual empirical climate evidence over more recent years. Also, the "clear and present danger" of global warming for the U.S. is a generous mix of hysteria, myth and fiction. Science factual truth is not in this mainstream mix it would appear.
Note: Using Excel and the U.S. temperature dataset from this source, one can calculate the monthly temperature anomalies from the absolute temperatures (used the 1901-2000 baseline for each month); Excel's slope function will then provide the trends for each time period; and then Excel can plot the resulting trend columns. This is the annual CO2 dataset used to calculate each period's average CO2 level. Don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.
Per the Real Science climate site, this NOAA chart shows why the 'hottest-evah' did not happen in 2014.
Simply, well over half of the U.S. experienced cooler temperatures than normal.
And the warmer temperatures out west were more likely the result of an El Nino brewing than due to human CO2 emissions.
As this map suggests, CO2-caused "global" warming is highly suspect since normal regional weather/climate oscillations easily overwhelm its impact.
And as the satellites report, global warming over the last 18 years is not what one would call 'robust.'
#gop #tcot #climatechange
The above map depicts the greatest extremes of temperatures recorded and officially recognized as being legit by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a UN agency.
The WMO has been an avid participant pushing the climate disaster/catastrophe claims associated with the anthropogenic global warming political agenda. In conflict with their apparent agenda, the WMO happens to be responsible for determining the official records for extreme weather events across the globe.
Ironically, this proponent of CO2-caused weather extremes has officially documented the paucity thereof since the 1990s.
It was during the 1980s that the major national climate agencies and the UN began promulgating the idea that climate catastrophes and extremes were abundant, due to the growing levels of trace atmospheric CO2 emissions. The principal claim being the trace GHGs is causing an evermore hotter world, about to go from calamities to civilization cataclysm.
And as time wore on, the WMO and other "experts" were wrong - it just hasn't happened.
Examine the map closely and it will be noted that the 'newest' hemisphere/continent hot temperature record took place way back in 1978 - it's now 37 years later and we're all still waiting for those new temp extreme records.
One could conclude that the WMO's own official records have not been kind to the global warming scare. Amazingly, the same can be said for many other official weather extremes that the WMO keeps a tally of.
This should not come as a surprise though. Indeed, the world has suffered from incredible weather extremes, most of which were experienced prior to large GHG emissions due to natural climate and weather patterns.
With that said, earthly records are made to be broken - they always are. However, CO2 and other trace gases do not guarantee new records...but nature does, which the record books are filled with.
Cautionary note to world's elites and climate experts: Over the last 25 years, the world has witnessed multiple times more failed predictions of climate extremes than all the new record-setting weather events - a genuine exhibition of requisite humility may be due.
#tcot #gop #agw
As this NOAA/NCDC regional climate map reveals, the vast majority of the continental U.S. has not warmed for the last 15 calendar years.
Specifically, for the entire continental U.S, the 2000-2014 calendar span has seen a -2.7°F/century cooling while 7 of the 9 climate regions had cooling or temperature trend stability.
However, there are two regions of the U.S. that have experienced warming trends - on the east and west coasts.
It is highly doubtful that global CO2 emissions would only affect these two geographic areas and not "global warm" the rest of the country. Objectively, it's more likely that there are other micro-regional climatic and human factors involved for the specific coastal state warmings.
Source for U.S. temperature regional temperature trends.
As NOAA is now reporting, the U.S. is in the midst of an extended cooling trend - 18 years and counting.
According to the IPCC and 97% of all "expert" climate scientists, the explosive growth of CO2 emissions and other trace greenhouse gases should have caused accelerated warming, not cooling.
The cooling trend is at a -1.9°F per century for the last 18 years. And since the end of the 20th century, the cooling has accelerated to a -3.5°F trend/century (years 1999 thru 2014) . That would be a doubling-down on 'Ooops', so to speak.
2014 the "hottest" U.S. year ever meme? Nope, didn't happen. In fact, this past year turned out to be the 5th coolest during that 18-year period.
Here is an interesting task for any CO2-centric global warming/climate change alarmist:
Identify from the 1980-1990's a single NOAA/NCDC/NASA climate expert on the taxpayer dole, at that time, who publicly stated this was a likely result. And the billion-dollar+ government-funded climate model(s) that actually predicted this very inconvenient climate cooling outcome.
Double bonus if that expert also predicted this.
Source for U.S. temperature chart.
The adjacent 'C3' chart, re-plots the same information using a simple column representation, plus depicting the fitted trend growth for each GHG group's emissions.
Some key points:
1. From 1970 to 2000, total GHG emissions grew by 1.3% per year.
2. Over the period of 2000-2010, that growth increased to 2.2% per year - a robust 70% growth in the annual rate.
3. Total GHG emissions jumped significantly from 2000-2010, to a historical record, with the combined CO2 emission groups being the principal contributors.
5. Methane emissions essentially stalled over 20 years but then started to increase over the last period.
6. Fluorinated gases (hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride), which are supposed to be reduced under the terms of the Kyoto protocol, have increased by 8x since 1970 but still only represent less than one-tenth of one percent of all GHG emissions.
7. Although the growth rate of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels slowed a bit from 1980 to 1990, it's growth started accelerating during the 90's.
8. The combination of CO2 fossil fuels emissions and CO2 emissions from deforestation, forest fires and peat burning have grown from 72% of all GHG emissions in 1970 to 76% of all GHG emissions.
Clearly, and unequivocally, the GHG emissions have not only sustained the business-as-usual (BAU) growth path that so concerns prominent advocates of climate alarmism, but over the last 10 year period the 'BAU' scenario levels for the demonized CO2 have jumped significantly (see top 3 charts on this page)
A little history: The BAU greenhouse gas emissions path was made famous by NASA's James Hansen, whose 1988 Senate testimony introduced the public to the dangerous and accelerating global warming potential of Scenario 'A'. This scenario was determined/computed to be a direct result of not reducing/restraining the GHGs emissions, especially fossil fuel CO2.
From a famous 1988 peer reviewed article by Hansen et al.:
"We define three trace gas scenarios to provide an indication of how the predicted climate trend depends upon trace gas growth rates. Scenario 'A' assumes that growth rates of trace gas emissions typical of the 1970s and 1980s will continue indefinitely; the assumed annual growth averages about 1.5% of current emissions, so the net greenhouse forcing increases exponentially. Scenario 'B' has decreasing trace gas growth rates, such that the annual increase of the greenhouse climate forcing remains approximately constant at the present level. Scenario 'C' drastically reduces trace gas growth between 1990 and 2000 such that the greenhouse climate forcing ceases to increase after 2000."
Switching from that history to the present, as the IPCC documents in the latest AR5 SPM (WGIII), we are living in the emission scenario of unrestrained growth - growth beyond the feared 1988 'BAU'. Hansen defined unrestrained BAU growth of GHGs as 1.5% per year, and now the IPCC reports it's growing at a 2.2% per annum rate.
In the opinion of climate alarmist advocates, this feared 'Beyond-BAU' growth means that radiative forcings (watts per square meter) will dramatically increase, resulting in out-of-control warming, multiple positive feedback loops and ever greater and more frequent climate/weather catastrophes.
And these alarmist opinions are due to the very costly and "sophisticated" IPCC/climate agencies computer crystal balls model simulations - dominated by said CO2 and other trace GHG emissions - that have proven to be such unreliable prediction tools. Recall that those climate model temperature prediction 'Ooopsies' are a major embarrassing problem plaguing the current reliance of climate science on unproven virtual simulations.
Just to add a little more context to the 'Beyond-BAU' fears of accelerating CO2 emissions, there is this article:
"Annual carbon dioxide emissions showed a strong  rise of 2.5% on 2013 levels, putting the total emitted this year on track for 40bn tonnes. That means the global ‘carbon budget’, calculated as the total governments can afford to emit without pushing temperatures higher than 2C above pre-industrial levels, is likely to be used up within just one generation, or in thirty years from now."
Finally, in the IPCC's own AR5 SPM words:
"Total anthropogenic GHG emissions have continued to increase over 1970 to 2010 with larger absolute decadal increases toward the end of this period. Despite a growing number of climate change mitigation policies, annual GHG emissions grew on average by 1.0 gigatonne carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2eq) (2.2 %) per year from 2000 to 2010 compared to 0.4 GtCO2eq (1.3 %) per year from 1970 to 2000. Total anthropogenic GHG emissions were the highest in human history from 2000 to 2010 and reached 49 (±4.5) GtCO2eq/yr in 2010.".....
"Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, emissions growth is expected to persist driven by growth in global population and economic activities. Baseline scenarios, those without additional mitigation, result in global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 from 3.7 °C to 4.8 °C compared to pre-industrial levels."
Conclusion: The alarmist science community and the IPCC's worst case GHG scenarios have been attained. Yet global temperatures (i.e. accelerated warming) have not responded accordingly. As one could surmise..."something is rotten in the state of computer climate science."
During a hot June 1988, NASA's James Hansen provided a provocative, stage-crafted testimony to the U.S. Senate.
His message? The world of 1988 was the hottest ever, since the 1800's, and it was due to humans' fossil fuel CO2 emissions; and more importantly, global warming would continue its upward path, rapidly getting worse and then becoming a threat to civilization unless CO2 emissions were constrained - i.e. reduced significantly.
Why his EOTWAWKI message? Because the modern crystal ball - his computer climate model simulations - told him so.
This chart plots the global temperatures using the most advanced, costly climate measuring technology provided to the scientific community by the American taxpayer. The empirical measurement evidence over the last 26.5 years since his testimony tells a different story than what Hansen predicted.
What do the satellites say? This state-of-the-art measurement technology ignores crystal ball predictions by experts and instead objectively reports that over the last 18 years "global warming" has been a non-issue. Despite record amounts of greenhouse gases being spewed into the atmosphere, global warming has not accelerated and has not become a threat.
How bad were Hansen's computer model predictions?
In his testimony, he spoke of causation between global warming and CO2 emissions - the more CO2 released, the greater and faster temps will rise. Yet, over the last 18 years, the world has experienced a very tiny cooling trend, per the satellites. And the "causation"? Well...ahem...calculating the statistical correlation between global temperatures and CO2 ppm levels over the last 18 years produces a negative correlation, with a r2 of 0.0004.
Dr. Hansen does deserve credit however. The first 8.5 years after his testimony, satellites measured the global warming trend at a +1.22°C increase by 2100AD. And the r2 for temperatures and CO2 was 0.21 (note to climatologists of alarmism persuasion: one does not want to make predictions of catastrophe with this statistical attribute level).
The conclusion? The end of the global warming 'EOTWAWKI' as we know it, no? Damn those stubborn facts!
The global warming slowdown (or "hiatus," "stall," "plateau," "pause" and etc.) has been widely discussed across a broad spectrum of web and print publications, including prominent science journals and peer-reviewed research, which indicates a 100% acceptance of the extended slowdown.
The realization and analysis of this lack of significant warming has produced a cornucopia of studies and expert opinions as to why the global climate went into a completely unexpected stall mode - so far, there are some 50+ scientific rationales that have been put forward to explain the phenomenon.
Since climate science remains unsettled, the current consensus is that there is a non-consensus regarding the globe's dramatic deviation form the CO2-centric "expert" climate models. Indeed, there is no shortage of empirical evidence documenting the ever-enlarging discrepancy.
Unfortunately, despite the indisputable and consensus scientific recognition that a temperature plateau exists, and the lively debate within science circles as to why, there are elite green alarmists who claim the 'standstill' is a hoax or does not exist - essentially, that is sheer climate-change denialism by deniers performing in anti-science, denialist roles.
On top of such denial travesties, the mainstream press is trying to change the focus away from the significance of the global warming slowdown and climate model failure to the incredibly small increase in warming that allows them to shout report that 2014 is the "warmest" year ever.
The term "warmest" (as in day, week, month, spring, summer, autumn, winter, year, decade and so on) has become the last propaganda refuge of those who either deny the global pause or just want everyone to forget its importance. Utilizing the terminology of "warmest" reveals the ultimate cherry-picking agenda.
However, since the Little Ice Age (LIA) end during the 1800's, the world has been constantly producing new "warmest-ever" records - it's entirely normal within the climate record, and will happen even when a temperature change hiatus exists.
To that point, both warm and cold years can coexist during longer periods of temperature stability, as multiple global and regional records demonstrate. In addition, it's unquestionable that severe/extreme weather events can take place, regardless if it is the "coldest" or "warmest" year.
As the adjacent chart depicts, rapid cooling and warming climate changes can occur very quickly. The chart plots both the acceleration and deceleration of temperatures (ie, per century trends) over moving 12-month periods (light red curve) since 1850.
Over short-term horizons, global temperatures have been known to accelerate/decelerate at a ±70°C rate.
Since 1999, there have been periods when temps increased at a +35°C/century rate, which would obviously produce some very warm years; while during the same 15-year span, there have been periods when temps decelerated ay -39°C/century rate, which would have obviously produced interim cold periods. This is what the empirical evidence shows.
Now think about that last paragraph. Over the last 15 years there has been incredible shifts in temp trends, yet the mainstream press doesn't report on that. Instead the press reports excessively about a given period being all of 1 to 2 hundredths of a degree warmer than a previous year. The robust alarmist hysteria of "journalism" is sadly evident 24/7.
Okay, back to climate reality and the basic facts: Temperature changes. Trends increase, then decrease. It just happens. It's natural. It will continue to do so. And it has occurred since instrumental climate records have been kept and proxy temperature reconstructions have been created.
Speaking of instrumental records, back to the included chart for more evidence of extreme climate change. The HadCRUT4 instrumental record since 1850 shows some big extremes, which have been identified on the chart as those periods exhibiting temperature trends greater than ±50°C.
Those specific warming and cooling extreme incidents have been identified with the years they took place, and there are some common traits recognizable.
The chart also plots the moving 180-month (15 year) acceleration/deceleration of temperature trends (the dark blue curve).
Clearly, despite all the modern CO2 emissions, all the gyrations of the 12-month per century trends, and all the recent "warmest" years ever, the 15-year global warming trend has not deviated much from the past. Statistically, as of October 2014, that trend is below the median of all 180-month trends that took place in the past ( 1,801 1,799 trend datapoints to be exact).
What does all of the above mean?
Today's global warming is neither civilization-ending, dangerous, rapid, nor quickly accelerating. It continues at a long-term pace that humans have not markedly influenced, per the empirical evidence. Thus, the proper response to a claim of a new "warmest" year is appropriately: 'so what?'
As shown, those stubborn facts of empirical evidence are relentless. The continuing long-term, natural warming climate trend since the LIA has been a constant, yet combined with amazing short-term periods of abrupt change that produce exceptionally warm years and cold years.
These are the scientific climate facts. They are unequivocal, immutable, indisputable, irrefutable, undeniable and non-debatable. It's called natural climate. It happens.
Note: Source for monthly HadCRUT4 anomalies used for chart. Utilized Excel to calculate 12-month and 180-month (moving) slopes (ie. trends), then multiplied by 1200 to produce per century trends. Then used Excel to plot per century trends.
#tcot #agw #cop20 #climatechange
In the previous 'C3' article, we looked at U.S. temperatures since 1988 when a NASA climate expert in U.S. senate testimony made predictions of near-future catastrophic climate change and, of course, dangerous global warming.
As the article documented, temperatures in the U.S. have essentially been at a standstill over the last 10+ years, and catastrophic climate change (with its millions of IPCC predicted "climate refugees") is nowhere to be found.
The end result is the undeniable evidence that America's climate records are non-consistent with the well publicized climate expert climate predictions, and also with the billion dollar super-computer models that experts and mainstream journalists claim to be climate-omniscient.
It begs the question: Is the non-consistent climate reality in the U.S. also found in other parts of the world?
Turns out that the UK climate records, as represented by the Central England Temperature (CET) dataset, reveals the same expert abject failures and non-consistency with model simulations. "Rapid" and "dangerous" accelerated warming hasn't taken place there either.
Unlike the continental U.S., with its abundance of micro and regional climates, the small island area of Great Britain affords less climate variety yet produces similar warming/cooling trends over the recent past.
Like the U.S. dataset plots, the CET dataset is for the full 26 years (312 months through Nov. 2014) since late 1988 when both UK and U.S. catastrophic climate proponents initiated their public fearmongering campaign - the year of James Hansen's scare-testimony.
The adjacent UK chart depicts both the plots for 60-month temperature and CO2 averages. Clearly, the predicted rise in temperature due to higher CO2 levels has not happened - this is not consistent with any climate model simulation that the experts tout.
With a r2 of 0.00 between monthly CO2 and temperatures values, the UK climate records also confirm the legitimate dismissal of the argument that CO2 acts as a "control knob" - some type of global temperature thermostat that UN elite bureaucrats and national politicians thought they could just dial for a desired climate.
And that "warming" trend for the last 13 years that just scares-the-poopie out of UK's elites? A -4.8°C per century...yep, a significant cooling trend.
In summary, the combined CET and U.S. climate records add to the empirical evidence disproving the hyperbole for CO2-caused disastrous global warming and catastrophic climate change. In reality the hyperbole is without any scientific validation.
Damn those stubborn facts.
Note: UK CET monthly temperature dataset can be downloaded from here. CET provides absolute temperatures and these can be converted to anomalies using a 1901-2000 baseline averages that can be readily calculated. The 1901-2000 baseline was chosen since previous article about US temps used that baseline. Plots, averages and trends produced by Excel.
#tcot #agw #cop20 #climatechange
The mainstream media's current du jour "climate science" claim is that 2014 is headed towards being the world's "warmest" year, ever.
Unfortunately, for the media that pushes the hysterical, that claim is actually without statistical merit, since the uncertainty error bars are large. In statistical terms, there's a darn good chance it's not the warmest year.
Then there is the jumbo elephant in the press room that "journalists" flat-out don't acknowledge, let alone report: the state-of-the-art climate satellite technology completely undercuts the world's "warmest year" hype.
And then there is the whole issue of where exactly is all this "dangerous," "out-of-control" warming taking place. For example, is it happening here in the U.S.?
Based on the multitude of anti-science, exaggerated "warmest-year-ever" paragraphs being produced by American reporters, one would think the good citizens of the U.S. are in the midst of the civilization-ending climate-fry.
But, as usual, the empirical evidence reveals the absolute distortions the media fabricates, per the latest U.S. climate records from NOAA.
Case in point: the adjacent graph is a plot for the last 26 years (312 months) of U.S. temperatures through November 2014 - since 1988. The red curve is a 60-month average that clearly indicates "global warming" in the U.S. has gone AWOL for at least a decade - on 'hiatus,' so to speak.
Then there is the 60-month plot of CO2 emissions (black dots), which obviously tells a different story then the press fabrication that the "rapid" global warming we are "suffering" from is a direct result of human CO2 emissions.
Hmmm...clearly temperatures do not react to CO2 as those crack science reporters "report."
This NOAA empirical evidence is unequivocal and indisputable, yet the mainstream media refuses to inform the American public of these most basic climate record facts.
So why did we pick 1988 as a starting point for this analysis?
Back in the summer of 1988, NASA had its climate expert, James Hansen, testify before the U.S. Senate. In his testimony, he predicted that across the world temperatures would rise dangerously due to human's increasing CO2 emissions.
As a result of the accelerating temperatures, Hansen foretold of major climate catastrophes that would plague the U.S. and the world within 20 some years, if business-as-usual CO2 emissions were not curtailed.
It's now 26 years later, and as the above graph depicts, global warming has stalled; CO2 emissions have not been curtailed in the least. And for the U.S. (look closely at the graph), continental temperatures actually experienced a cooling trend stretching over a decade.
The dramatic climate change disasters that NASA and Hansen predicted? Not even close to happening.
And those are the stubborn facts - much to the chagrin of the UN bureaucrats, national government elites and mainstream hacks journalists.
Note: US temperature dataset can be downloaded from here. NOAA/NCDC reports absolute temperatures and these can be converted to anomalies using the 1901-2000 baseline averages that NOAA provides.
http://ow.ly/DnQGN #tcot #gop #climate2014 ===> latest headlines
As the UN's latest traveling climate circus continues in Lima, Peru, leave it to Greenpeace to put their self-important public relations at the forefront.
And, less anyone forgets, Greenpeace and other sanctimonious, green NGOs contribute nothing, in terms of money and research, to solving actual environmental issues. It's all PR stunts and lobbying.
When will governments finally get real and start taxing these "non-profit" organizations that have sequestered billions of dollars away for their own private use?
Hmm...probably never because most bureaucrats and politico elites have been bought by the NGOs, no?
Oh well, as the world turns topsy-turvy in Lima, here are this past week's update of climate, weather and energy stories of note.
http://ow.ly/DnQGN #tcot #gop #climate2014 ===> latest headlines
Adjacent is an entertaining synopsis of climate-doomsday cult predictions over multiple decades.
The litany of anti-science prediction failures has been a stunning testament to the "expert" fearmongering, which rivals doomsday-crapola spouted by the likes of Christian evangelist Harold Camping and his ilk.
And just because Camping passed in 2013, there are other Christian doomsday-cult believers still keeping his fear-religion tactics at the forefront - with climate change being fertile ground for fanatics to spread their gospel.
If you are not yet depressed enough about the stupidity and gloominess exhibited by our "elites" regarding climate, then you certainly need to read the headlines from the past week.
Take a Prozac when you're done.
Simply stated, the climate reality facts do not bode well for those who still promulgate that Earth's environment is in 'crash & burn' mode from human CO2 emissions.
Whether it is the unanimous opinion by scientists regarding the 18-year "global warming" pause; or the last 9 years for the complete lack of major hurricanes; or the inexplicable and surprisingly thick Antarctic sea ice; or the boring global sea level rise that is a tiny fraction of coastal-swamping magnitude; or food crops exploding with record production; or multiple other climate signals - it is now blatantly obvious the current edition of the AGW hypothesis is highly suspect.
Not only is the AGW hypothesis invalidated by close to twenty years of empirical evidence, the CO2 as a "control knob" concept has been shed of any practical merit.
This has been discussed multiple times at 'C3' over recent years. Now, stepping back a few decades, during a 1988 Congressional staged testimony - conspiracy to mislead comes to mind - the top NASA climate expert predicted that 'business as usual' CO2 emissions would cause rapid and accelerated global warming.
Eventually, building on that 1988 performance, other climate experts developed a hypothesis that CO2 acted as the proverbial control-knob thermostat for the global temperature.
But in reality, is that even remotely accurate?
The above reality chart of empirical evidence affirms what the IPCC truly does not want to discuss: the "control-knob" concept is literally a myth.
The chart plots two-year temperature changes since 1988, with the respective two-year CO2 changes (ppm). It has been 26 years since that testimony-performance, thus there are 13 two-periods plotted on the chart. In addition, the linear trend for the HadCRUT4 gold-standard temperature dataset and NOAA's CO2 dataset are shown moving in opposite directions.
There is no doubt. The increasing CO2 changes are not producing the requisite increasing temperature changes, as predicted. Visually, the correlation between the two appears very lame, at best. The actual r2 is a meager 0.12 - yes, that's two plus decades of statistical nothingness.
Conclusion: Those stubborn climate facts are not kind to the ever-fading, CO2-induced global warming hypothesis. Climate change is always happening but it is highly unlikely that the miniscule trace-gas CO2 is a major driver (sure, a minor player, but not one that controls the world's fate). Time for policymakers to abandon the control-knob myth and instead focus on adaption preparation for all types of climate change.
Note: The chart plots and linear trends were created using Excel, and the HadCRUT4 dataset and NOAA CO2 dataset. The plots cover discrete two-year periods, starting with October 1988. The CO2 change is scaled to one-tenth of actual (so that temp changes are visually apparent). Hey, don't know how to chart the above in Excel? It's easy to produce charts - you can do it too! Go here to learn how.