It's been only several weeks of the ink drying on the Paris climate treaty agreement and serious t-r-o-u-b-l-e for its worldwide adoption has quickly emerged.
As this article indicates, the New York Times and others are wondering if the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision put the kabosh on the hopes of the fringe, extremist left/green radicals and their companions, the Democrat "progressive" conspiracy-addicts.
One can only hope, but unfortunately the climate change alarmists and doomsday cult will continue their wanton path of destruction regarding freedom of speech, open scientific debate and civil discourse about important policy issues.
The abhorrent fact that greens keep pushing for the criminalization of disagreement with their views suggests that legal barriers to their totalitarian impulses will not stop them.
Empirical evidence is always a good disinfectant for doomsday fears and conspiracy theories. And it's no different for the exuberant, catastrophic hyperbole, irrational and anti-science prognostications being pronounced on a daily basis regarding global warming.
The below charts of empirical evidence are another 'bolus' of disinfectant for the climate change hyperbole - hyperbole that is pushing both climate science research and debate to the ludicrous, for example.
Chart #1 (click on any chart to enlarge)
Chart #1 is one that will never be shown by the establishment climate science community, nor by the climate-doomsday alarmists.
The chart plots the absolute global averages for both surfaces and atmospheric temperatures since the major 1998 El Niño peak. It is a peak-to-peak chart through December 2015 that reveals absolute global temperatures to be on a fairly stable path over the last 18 years.
Global temperatures move up and down in a narrow band, which is why the rolling 5-year averages are essentially flat. This stability has occurred in spite of the large increase in CO2 levels (see black dots on chart) during the same time frame.
Chart #2 is a plot of the same time period but using the familiar temperature anomalies instead of absolute temperatures.
Climate scientists and alarmists strongly favor anomalies for their lack of context. With anomalies, the public sees frightening large temperature spikes without realizing that real-world temperatures, while extremely variable, rarely remain outside a very narrow climate range - anomalies don't reveal the narrow range context that the absolutes show in Chart #1.
It's important to remember that in everyday life the public depends on the reporting of absolute temperatures. For example, the TV weather announcer would provide the following style of summation: "tomorrow will range from a cool of 45 degrees in the morning to a high of 73 degrees by late afternoon" - they don't state that tomorrow's temperatures will have an anomaly of +0.03 degree over the average baseline by late afternoon.
Simply stated, they use absolutes when reporting to the public, not meaningless anomalies. The absolute temperature degrees provide valuable context that allows the public, be they urban commuters, regional bureaucrats or rural farmers, to make informed and rational decisions.
With that said, it is certainly true that anomalies are invaluable for research, but for scientists to employ them for communications with the general public is in a reality a form of lying by context-omission.
By avoiding the use of absolute temperatures, the establishment can thus produce the desired agenda narrative, in a context vacuum, that our world is "rapidly warming" in order to persuade the public of favored energy/taxation policies.
But as this series of charts reveal, the context provided by the absolute temperatures is critically important to determining if the "rapidly warming" doomsday fears are rational and contextually evidence-based.
Charts #3 (absolutes) and #4 (anomalies) are plots of the same surface and atmospheric temperature datasets but for a different period: 1880 through 2015.
Charts #5 and #6 are more of the same, except the plots start at January 1979, the first full year of satellite temperature measurements and empirical 24/7 global measurement evidence - 37 years, as of the end of 2015.
With that long introduction out of the way, what do these 6 charts tell the policymakers, the taxpayers and the general public?
First, atmospheric CO2 levels have been climbing, relentlessly.
Second, the NOAA surface temperature dataset indicates that the globe has been steadily warming since 1880, but in a sporadic fashion.
The long-term warming trend since the Little Ice Age amounts to +0.7C degrees/century, per NOAA. The shorter term surface warming since 1998 has been at a rate of +1.4C/century; and the atmosphere has actually cooled at a -0.1C/century rate since 1998.
Third, climate change and its variation, as represented by global temperatures in Chart #4, is evident since the first decade of observations. Climate change 'has', and 'is', and 'will' happen - it is a natural phenomenon that happens.
Fourth, although the satellite evidence clearly indicates that the atmosphere has warmed since 1979, that warming has stalled since the 1998 peak - Chart #2's 5-year average for the RSS dataset vividly shows the 'Pause/Hiatus/Stall', equal to a cooling rate of -0.1/century.
Both the surface and atmospheric actual temperature changes are significantly below the estimates predicted due to the large CO2 increases.
And this fourth observation is especially critical.
The anthropogenic global warming (AGW) hypothesis states the greenhouse emissions will warm the lower atmosphere, which will then result in a subsequent warming of Earth's surface. Yet, since 1998 the surface has warmed (more on that surface "warming" here and here) while the atmosphere had not warmed at all through 2015 - this is a major AGW hypothesis disconnect.
In addition, the AGW hypothesis assumes that increasing greenhouse gases will cause the triggering of major positive feedbacks that in turn will cause dangerous, accelerated warming in the atmosphere and then the surface. In reality, the "dangerous, accelerated warming" has not taken place, anywhere.
Ergo, CO2 emissions are not resulting in the "consensus" predicted positive feedbacks.
Since there is no evidence of the doomsday positive feedback, which the climate experts and their computer models assume, the predictions of doomsday climate catastrophes actually remain without a sliver of requisite empirical evidence or scientific proof.
Notes: Datasets used: NOAA; RSS; CO2-modern; CO2-proxy. Excel was used to plot charts from the government's own climate data.
Even with the strong surge in global temperatures from the current El Niño and from the surge of 2015 global warming exaggeration and fabrication (here, here and here), there remains the strange case of establishment climate science models failing to meet expected outcomes.
Case in point. This chart replicates the famous climate model output presented to Congress and the world in 1988 by James Hansen, the then chief climatologist of the NASA/GISS climate research unit. (Here is an image of the original chart.)
The climate model predicted annual temperature changes would follow the bright green curve if greenhouse gases (GHGs) were not curtailed. GHGs include: CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride - the latter 3 are known as fluorinated greenhouse gases.
The orange curve represents the predicted annual temperature changes if the GHG growth rate were reduced over time.
The chart's cyan (aqua) curve datapoints are the predicted annual temperature changes if GHGs were curtailed by governmental polices and regulations so that year 2000 and beyond had a net growth rate equal to zero.
From the Hansen 1998 testimony, there is this statement:
"We have considered cases ranging from business as usual [BAU], which is scenario A, to draconian emission cuts, scenario C, which would totally eliminate net trace gas growth by year 2000."
From the 1988 Hansen peer-reviewed article that supports his testimony, there is this statement:
"We define three trace gas scenarios to provide an indication of how the predicted climate trend depends upon trace gas growth rates. Scenario 'A' [chart's green curve] assumes that growth rates of trace gas emissions typical of the 1970s and 1980s will continue indefinitely; the assumed annual growth averages about 1.5% of current emissions, so the net greenhouse forcing increases exponentially. Scenario 'B' [chart's orange curve] has decreasing trace gas growth rates, such that the annual increase of the greenhouse climate forcing remains approximately constant at the present level. Scenario 'C' [chart's cyan curve] drastically reduces trace gas growth between 1990 and 2000 such that the greenhouse climate forcing ceases to increase after 2000."
So.....since NASA's top climate expert's testimony, what has happened with the GHG growth and growth rates?
From a recent U.S. EPA report on non-CO2 greenhouse gases, there is the following:
"Global non-CO2 emissions are projected to increase significantly between 2005 and 2030 unless further actions are taken to reduce emissions...total emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases have nonetheless increased."
From the latest IPCC AR5 climate report, we know the following about GHGs (a synopsis here):
"Total anthropogenic GHG emissions have continued to increase over 1970 to 2010 with larger absolute decadal increases toward the end of this period. Despite a growing number of climate change mitigation policies, annual GHG emissions grew on average by 1.0 gigatonne carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2eq) (2.2 %) per year from 2000 to 2010 compared to 0.4 GtCO2eq (1.3 %) per year from 1970 to 2000. Total anthropogenic GHG emissions were the highest in human history from 2000 to 2010 and reached 49 (±4.5) GtCO2eq/yr in 2010.".....
In addition, the combination of CO2 fossil fuels emissions and CO2 emissions from deforestation, forest fires and peat burning have grown from 72% of all GHG emissions in 1970 to 76% of all GHG emissions.
Regarding fossil fuel CO2 emissions, specifically (CO2 data here): NASA and Hansen's 'BAU' Scenario A was proposed at a time when CO2 emissions were growing: since 1972, the 15 years ending 1987 the world emitted 285 billion tonnes of CO2. This represents a CO2 average growth rate of 2.2% per year for those 15 years prior to Hansen's 1988 testimony.
In contrast, for the 15 years ending 2014, the world has emitted a total of 467 billion tonnes - that is growth some 1.6 times greater than Hansen's 'BAU'. This represents a CO2 average growth rate of 2.9% per year for the period since 1999.
Without any doubt, both empirically and objectively, NASA's Hansen's projected GHG emissions for 'Scenario A' has easily been exceeded since his testimony in 1988. To state otherwise is a falsehood, categorically.
Now, back to the above chart.
For the year 2015, NASA's model predictions had temperature change for all 3 scenarios declining. Of course, we now know the exact opposite took place with the sharp increase in 2015 global temps.
It is important to note that since the 1988 testimony, the NASA climate predictions have very rarely been correct regarding annual temperature changes. (NASA is not an exception, though - all climate computer models and experts suffer the same level of failure.)
For what it's worth, the chart also shows the 2016 predictions: there is continuing decline for Scenarios B & C, but a sharp spike up for Scenario A to a record calendar year anomaly level.
While global warming alarmists are celebrating 2015 as the "warmest" year ever, the climate model failures clearly point to the absurdity of focusing on peak or trough moments as indicators of informed expertise. Peaks happen and troughs happen, in weather and climate, but pointing to either as scientific proof of computer simulations is not science.
Taking that to heart, the accompanying chart has 3-year average plots of highly adjusted observed temperatures from the NASA and UK climate agencies - the 3-year averages remove the focus from peaks/troughs.
As can be seen, 3-year averages of the GISS and HC4 datasets depict the last 3-year average increase due to the El Niño conditions, and those questionable man-made factors.
Be that as it may, the GISS and HC4 averages still remain closer to the realm of NASA's Scenario C range. As a reminder, the Scenario C predictions are a result of net zero GHG emissions simulated to have started in year 2000, which is yet another galaxy away from reality.
In conclusion, some relevant takeaways on climate models:
1. At this point, now close to 3 decades after NASA's testimony, one can safely surmise that expert climate models can't predict squat. The climate is a chaotic complex that defies even the most sophisticated and powerful forecasting tools.
2. GHG emissions have far surpassed the 1988 "world-will-soon-end" BAU construct - a construct that many alarmists still believe. Yet the predicted positive feedback from BAU has not occurred and thus runaway global warming is, without question, AWOL.
3. The climate models are still absolutely unable to discern either the amount or rate of global warming/cooling that is due to natural forces. The models were designed to purposefully rely on greenhouse gas forcings as their major causal factor, while diminishing natural climate impacts. It's no wonder that climate models remain on a fail path.
4. Based on the model outputs from 1960 to the present, policymakers and the public would be better served by rejecting the alarmist scenarios A and B; instead, moving forward, base all adaption and mitigation policies on Scenario 'C', which would likely produce better outcomes with superior allocation of scarce resources.
The climate models definitely have their important place in the climate researcher's toolbox. They are best suited to advance science's better understanding of our world, but their climate predictions, forecasts and prognostications should never be relied on - they are unreliable and inaccurate.
Update h/t: Video of climate scientist making the same point about climate model failure before a congressional committee on Feb 2, 2016:
A recent letter from 300 scientists is requesting that Congress assure that the Data Quality Act is complied with, which NOAA has not done regarding both the U.S. and global empirical temperature observations.
When 300 scientists put their name and reputations on the line criticizing NOAA, it can be assumed that the issue is one of significance and importance to science.
And this issue is now coming to a head after 7+ years of both NOAA and NASA blatantly adjusting historical temperature measurement records on a continual basis.
In essence, these two climate research agencies have purposefully cooled the past; and then warmed the modern temperatures in an effort to make global warming seem more severe than actually has taken place since the Little Ice Age. (See here a recent example of NOAA's adjustment handiwork.)
Their combined adjustment "methodology" has certainly mislead the public and policymakers, which has added to the growing mistrust that the public has for politicians, scientists and bureaucrats.
The group of charts above reveals the gross manipulation of temperatures that strongly indicates an anti-science motivation to meet the current administration's political needs.
Charts #1 & #2 show two examples of the constant adjustments by both NOAA and NASA. These examples show the number of adjusting steps taken since 2008 to cool past historical temperatures and the number of steps to raise a modern month's temperature.
Charts #3 & #4 show the total amount of adjustments by month since 1880 for NOAA and NASA. The fabricated warming of modern temps and cooling of pre-modern temps is more than obvious - it is unequivocally blatant and an unprecedented level of science tampering.
All of these charts were compiled by Ole Humlum, a well-known university scientist/professor from Norway who publishes peer-reviewed climate change research. Go to his 'Climate4You' site to access a large volume of valuable climate information.
The extended 'pause' appears to have finally rattled the scientists at NOAA. They seemingly chose to robustly adjust thousands of past monthly temperature observations to make sure the embarrassing pause would be no longer.
The adjacent chart depicts the global annual temperature anomalies computed from the monthly NOAA dataset reported in 2014 (orange columns); and the red columns represent the new annual anomalies after NOAA's massive 2015 revisions.
By slightly adjusting down the past reported temperatures for years 2000-2003, and then by adjusting up years 2005-2014, NOAA was able to almost double the warming trend (i.e. slope of linear trend-line) for the 15 years ending in 2014.
To put the NOAA adjustments in scientific perspective, the chart also includes the satellite reported annual temperature anomalies for the same periods. Note for the satellite columns that only 3 of the 15 years (2012, 2013 and 2014) had minor adjustments of 0.01 each. As a result, the satellite temperature trend-lines remain flat for both 2014 and 2015.
One can assume that the RSS scientists avoided the temptation to massively adjust the satellite temperature dataset just to achieve desired political/activist objectives; thus, the 'pause' in the lower atmosphere continues and empirical science was not tarnished.
Unfortunately, NOAA has succumbed, allowing the bureaucracy to put the political cart before the scientific horse - the AGW hypothesis clearly predicts that the lower atmosphere has to warm first and at a faster pace than surface temperatures. The empirical evidence of the pause has not supported the prediction of a severely warming atmosphere for almost two decades now.
At this point in time, the satellite empirical evidence is significantly more trustworthy as it does not suffer from the constant monthly historical revisions that both NOAA and NASA perform on their respective temperature datasets.
Notes: Calendar year (annual) anomalies were computed using Excel from the RSS satellite 2015 year-end monthly dataset and NOAA's 2015 year-end monthly dataset.
The lower troposphere represents that layer of the atmosphere which is predicted to first experience the positive feedback of accelerated warming due to human greenhouse gases.
Recently, NOAA and NASA held a global warming presentation, which included various charts, and an unexpected admission that the atmosphere was not as warm as previous El Niño years.
An essential general review of the presentation can be found here.
The troposphere's lack of achieving the "warmest" year label was confirmed by the NOAA/NASA analysis of the relevant balloon and satellite datasets. And the adjacent chart is a combination from the NOAA/NASA presentation, with one chart being superimposed atop the other.
Other than a normal atmospheric response to the latest large El Niño temperature surge, the chart documents the continued lack of dangerous positive feedback warming.
Lol.....sure to become a 'politically correct' classic, and a favorite of the White House, the IPCC bureaucrats, those green 'Hotel Earth' doomsday comrades, and, of course, all dogma-loving students....
As the preponderance of scientific studies and reports have proven, our current modern warming is not unprecedented. Significant warming has taken place quite often in the past, as well as climatic cooling.
"The 600-year reconstructed record -- dating back to AD 1392. As indicated, the record shows pronounced periods of subdecadal to multidecadal variability. Specifically, Elbert et al. note the presence of cold phases "during parts of the Little Ice Age (16th and 18th centuries) and in the beginning of the 20th century." In contrast, they state that warm phases persisted "in the 15th century, around AD 1600 and in the 19th century," the latter of which they characterized as the "most prominent" of the entire record."
In a prior posting, the empirical evidence from a group of high quality tidal gauge locations revealed the long-term acceleration and deceleration of sea levels.
Overall, the last 30 years exhibited a trend of only 9-10 inches per century - certainly not a biggie even worthy of a climate-doomsday claim. This trend has been exceeded in the past, prior to the accumulation of high levels of CO2 gases in the atmosphere.
Despite this known evidence, over the last decade and a half much has been made of the claim that CO2 emissions were causing the seas to rise ever faster and would soon result in a literal swamping of Pacific islands.
But what does the actual non-tidal gauge empirical evidence say about the sea rise in the Pacific?
A. Map of Pacific sea height coordinates
B. Sea height anomalies & trends
C. 3-yr moving avgs of sea heights
D. Fitted trends Pacific island sea heights
(click on any image to enlarge)
Using the satellite observations, compiled by the leading sea level research group's site, one can download sea surface height anomalies from the beginning of the 21st century. This empirical evidence should clarify if civilization's massive CO2 emissions over the last 15+ years have caused a dangerous sea rise surge of ever higher waves.
And it does clarify.
Image 'A' above shows 32 ocean locations that were downloaded for this analysis. (There are four corner locations for each island region.)
Image 'B' contains the plots of each island region's average sea surface anomalies (monthly increase/decrease). While the sea heights can very significantly, the overall trend from the average anomalies(see dark green curve) is an underwhelming +1.8 mm/year - that translates to per century trend of 7.2 inches/century (the bright red trend line).
Image 'C' is the 3-year (36-mth) simple moving averages from the same anomaly datasets of 'B'. Again, the 3-year trends show variation, but for the most part, within a tight band.
Image 'D' is a plot of the datasets' fitted trends, which better show the increase/decrease cycle of the anomalies, which is difficult to discern from image 'B'. These trends reveal a similar up/down pattern that was evident in the prior analysis of the longer record from the tidal gauges.
The empirical evidence is rather convincing when it comes to a lack of rapidly rising sea heights around Pacific islands and atolls.
With that said, there indeed may be certain Pacific regions and specific island situations that are experiencing a greater acceleration of rising sea levels. But one would be hard-pressed to claim a unique location (or several) represents the result of CO2-induced global climate change when scientific measurement-reality obviously indicates accelerating, doomsday sea level rise is not a global phenomenon.
Notes: Download Excel spreadsheet with sea height anomaly datasets (and comments) for these 8 island regions: Hawaii, Tuvalu, Midway, Nauru, Wake, Tahiti, Norwalk and Marshall. Plots and trends produced from a January 2000 start date in order to identify the 21st century sea level rise conditions versus the claims.
Across the globe there exist only a handful of tide gauge station records available that exceed 100 years in length, and that also report at least 90% of the monthly records over the last 100 years.
Using the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) database, one can identify 15 gauge sites that are exemplary in record keeping. In addition, all 15 have records through 2013, with the majority (12) having records through 2014.
The 15 sites with a long history of gauge readings are listed on the adjacent chart. The chart also includes an average of all 15 and a plot of atmospheric CO2 levels.
The chart plots the per century trends, by month, based on moving 30-year (360-month) periods.
The smooth trend curves plotted are fitted, providing a visual as to where sea level acceleration and deceleration have been, and indicate where they might be going. [Ed: Using trends for predictive purposes is not recommended.]
The purplish (mauve) smooth curve is the average of all moving per century trends for the 15 sites; the monthly datapoints for the average of all is depicted also (see the variable mauve plot).
What do the mauve trend curve and mauve monthly datapoint plot reveal?
For the average of the world's longest and most complete sea level records, there has been relatively small variation in sea level trends calculated from the moving 30-year periods.
The greatest sea rise trend took place at the 30-year period ending December 1952 - a trend rise of 10.6 inches per century.
The lowest trend happened in May 1977 - an increase of 4.1 inches per century.
The 100-year trend, as of the end of 2013, was 9.5 inches per century for all 15 sites.
For the 12 sites reporting records through December 2014, the rise trend was 9.1 inches per century.
Putting it into the human-caused 'climate change' context, this global mean of long-term sea level trend has clearly not been a function of the rapidly rising CO2 levels (see chart's plot of moving 360-month average of atmospheric CO2 levels).
In summary, the overall sea level rise trend has been rather unimpressive, and slightly meandering back and forth since the early 1940s, while CO2 levels have exhibited a seemingly exponential growth. At the end of 2014, the 30-year trend amounted to a 2.3 to 2.5 mm (9 to 10 inches) increase per year.
The chart also reveals the two outliers of the group: Stockholm and Galveston, Texas. They both show a distinct cycle of ups and downs with no obvious relation to CO2 levels. (Stockholm's gauge has recorded a declining sea level trend.....at -14.3 inches per century, as of the end of 2014.)
For the other 13 gauge sites, the chart only depicts the smoothed fitted trends of sea level rise using the 30-year periods. Each site's trend exhibits a slightly different cyclical pattern cycle from others but most stay within a fairly narrow range over the decades. (See monthly per century trends plotted without the smooth fitted curves.)
Finally, the chart's two dashed fitted curves, red and blue, represent opposite trend directions at the end of 2013 - they are San Francisco and Freemantle, Australia. These two sites would suggest that a unified, in-sync global sea level change is not a reality.
The above chart from the 15 sites indicates a current per century trend of 2.2-2.5 mm/year increase in mean sea levels, with the 1950's having a peak trend of approximately 2.7 mm/year (0.11 inches/yr). The raw sea level records when averaged, from beginning to end for the 101 years of records, calculates to an average site increase of 2.05 mm/year (0.08 inches/yr).
The current rate of sea level rise is not unusual versus the late 1940's and early 50's, which is an era prior to the huge increase in consumer/industrial CO2 emissions. And certainly this chart shows ancient sea level increases that were multiple times larger and faster than those observed with our modern climate.
This adjacent sea level infographic from a 2015 study published in the Sciencejournal confirms that sea levels were significantly higher in the pre-history than our current levels.
When comparing the ancient past with the modern 15-site gauge per century trend of the last 30 years, it would take some 2,500 years to reach the 6-meter higher sea levels recorded approximately 125,000 years ago at a much lower CO2 level.
And to reach a more modest 1-meter sea level increase would take approximately 400+ years, per today's sea level trends.
**(Infographic's explanation: Peak global mean temperature, atmospheric CO2, maximum global mean sea level (GMSL), and source(s) of meltwater. Light blue shading indicates uncertainty of GMSL maximum. Red pie charts over Greenland and Antarctica denote fraction (not location) of ice retreat.)
The modern climate alarmism fears of the soon-to-be flooding of coastal regions, which would unleash a horde of climate refugees, is entirely without scientific merit, per the modern dataset records and the expert research done on the pre-history sea levels and trends.
Notes: Excel was used to calculate and plot the moving sea level per century curves and fitted trends (Excel slope function produced trends based on moving 360-month periods for each month in the dataset; then converted to per century trends (inches) for each month). Excel also used to calculate averages and to sort dataset records to identify highest per century trends for each site. The smooth fitted trends are to the 6th order. The Key West, Florida dataset's first record was January 1913, thus all 15 site sea level calculations started at the same date; the first 30-year trend calculated occurred at the December 1942 dataset record - hence, the plotted trends in the top chart start with December 1942. PSMSL datasets were the source of all records used for the chart. Download raw sea level datasets in Excel spreadsheet for all 15 sites, from 1913 to 2014. The datasets chosen included those that had data at least through December 2013; had at least a 100 year record of monthly reporting; and, had at least a 90% reporting of all 1,012 months covering the 101 years. The 'youngest' dataset meeting the criteria, Key West, determined the 101-year span used.
It's not just the UN/IPCC "consensus" in climate science that promotes fiction and harmful Western elitist policies that have no basis in reality. The perpetually ignoring of the actual facts by elites promotes nothing more than ego gratification, superficial pontificating and incredibly poor policy-making.
Politically correct journalists, pundits, and "experts" continue to be proven wrong by recent events.
This video makes specific points that simply reduces claims of "religion of peace" to being nothing more than an empty slogan, like "climate change."
December 15, 2015: The just finished Paris COP21 climate "Treaty" supposedly will stop global warming and climate change, so say those political soothsayers whom claim omnipotence over Mother Earth - claims that have an eerie similarity to those a century before when the elite politicos absurdly proclaimed to have stopped future wars.
Below are a dozen recent articles regarding the non-binding, non-enforcement, non-penalty "Treaty" to save the world. Click on any of the dozen to go to article's source.
As the state-of-the-art satellite technology shows (see chart), significant global warming since the early 2000’s has been nonexistent.
There has definitely been an extended ‘pause’ (aka the ‘Hiatus’ in science journals). The pause has generated some 60+ scientific explanations regarding its existence and persistence.
This has become a real problem for many proponents of dangerous global warming, which has recently pushed them into a stance of actually denying the 'pause'.
Empirically, since November 2000 the lower atmosphere temperature trend has actually been negative at a minus 0.12ºC per century trend. (The chart’s green curve is a 36-month average, which makes the pause even clearer to the casual observer.)
The chart also includes r-squared calculations, besides linear trends, that indicate a fairly weak 30-year relationship between CO2 and temperatures, which appears to have become a zero relationship over the last 15 years.
In review, the AGW theory is based on a CO2-induced warming of the lower atmosphere, at a rapid and accelerating warming rate - this being a result of the theory's speculative positive feedback loop.
As can be seen, the satellite empirical evidence after 30+ years does not readily support the climate-alarmist AGW theory, nor the doomsday predictions of global warming hell.
Although the satellites are considered the gold-standard for measuring and observing sea levels, hurricanes/typhoons, ozone holes, sea ice, atmospheric CO2 distribution, polar ice sheet masses and etc., the same 24/7 technology used to measure temperatures across the entire habitable world is now being ignored (i.e., denied) due to the above inconvenient evidence.
The adjacent chart pretty much makes a turkey mockery of accelerating global warming fears. It's simply not flying happening.
While the climate science establishment continues its costly and misallocated efforts against "catastrophic" global warming, the empirical evidence indicates the worlds' elites are pursuing a laughably ludicrous Don Quixote quest against an imaginary climate-evil.
Like so many Thanksgivings of the past, those on the 'quest' have piously announced civilization's reaching its 'last chance' point of saving itself from climate doomsday. But all of these TurkeynadoSharknado-like prophecies that the end-is-near have proven to be pure anti-science fiction.
At some point, we can hope some sanity returns to the climate science anti-CO2 Quixote brotherhood of warriors. But in the meantime, what does the actual climate science say?
Well, this chart is just brutally frank: the fast growth of atmospheric CO2 levels (the black dots) have not exactly been the robust evil foe the elite establishment has fixated on.
As the chart depicts, the CO2 impact on either short (red curve) or long-term (pink curve) rapid global temperature acceleration appears to be non-existent versus the "consensus" predictions. And the blue-dash curve reveals the rather turkey-like impact on the 36-month average of absolute global temperatures.
Indeed, global temperatures have increased since 1950. But the scientific reality is that the chart confirms a steady global warming that has been taking place since the end of the Little Ice Age (late 1700s) - well before the influx of the giant CO2 emissions from the industrial/consumer era. The chart clearly shows a long history of frequent periods of rapidly increasing temperatures, then to be always followed by a significant deceleration.
Examine the chart's most recent period, from December 1996 through October 2015. The periods of both rapid temperature increases and decreases are evident, just as they existed since instrumental recording of temperatures first began.
The vast majority of climate analysis based on actual empirical evidence show similar results, whether in a global or regional context.
Terrified by global warming doomsday? Not so much anymore, it would seem.
Suffice it to say, Americans are no longer impressed by the claims of government and celebrity elites. Fully 97% now reject the unreal turkey-esque predictions of climate change disasters.
And the American public is not alone. The global masses join Americans in their low assessment of the elites' unscientific climate calamities.
As the public has learned, the empirical evidence supports neither the man-made climate change disaster narrative nor the CO2-reducing solutions proposed, which have been seriously debunked.
With all that said, foolish anti-science elites will continue to make preposterous claims and those exaggerated, attic-crazy predictions leading up to the soon to be Paris COP21 climate conference.
One last 'chance' - look at the chart, are you still terrified this Thanksgiving? How about that wacky college-aged, censorship-loving, millennial niece gnawing on that turkey wing next to you?
Note: Excel used to calculate the 3-year absolute temperature and CO2 level averages; also used to calculate the moving 36-month and 360-month per century acceleration/deceleration trends (Excel slope function) as depicted on chart; the absolute temps calculated using the HadCRUT4 month anomalies and NOAA's monthly global mean temperature estimates; and, the 3-year average beginning value for CO2 was offset to a zero starting place. Temperature sources used: here and here. CO2 sources used: here (March 1958-October 2015) and here (used annual historical levels for each month of the given year, from January 1850 to February 1958).
This week is the 40th anniversary of the sinking of the SS Edmund Fitzgerald during a Lake Superior gale. It was a huge Great Lakes iron-ore freighter known as the Titanic of the Great Lakes with a workhorse record; and only 17-years of service at the time of her plunge to the bottom of the lake.
She went down in the deep waters of Lake Superior in the early evening hours of November 10, 1975 with 29 lives. Her fast sinking was so exceptional for a huge ship that it was subsequently celebrated by a very popular song.
That unexpected and violent storm is now forever known for sinking the largest ship ever, on the Great Lakes.
One could certainly surmise that the low CO2 levels (less than 350ppm) during that time may have contributed to this tragedy. She was battered by both 35-foot waves and near hurricane level winds - an extreme, rare weather event that suggests low-CO2 climate change at work.
No other gigantic ship has sunk on the Great Lakes since those low CO2 levels, doncha know.
The decade of the 70's were exceptional for its extreme and severe weather events that plagued the globe during the regime of low atmospheric CO2. Climate scientists and other experts at the time debated as to the causes, but the science remained unsettled as to why the weather extremes had become so violent and frequent during that specific decade.
Climate change extreme weather events due to low CO2 (1970-79):
Government-funded scientists, the Green's anti-CO2 activists and the mainstream media-alarmists have all claimed that the current drought being suffered by the US west coast is the extreme climate change Americans have never experienced before.
They claim it is due to human CO2 emissions of the modern industrial and consumer civilization.
Yet severe droughts have been part and parcel of the world's climate since humans started recording severe weather events. Across the globe, and the US, there is no shortage of historical drought reports and other extreme climate conditions.
More specifically, as the images below attest, drought extremes in the US have been extensively documented by NOAA since the 1900s, with most taking place well before the global 350ppm CO2 atmospheric level was commonplace.
For a perspective, the October 2015 drought conditions (top-left image) have often been exceeded by some kick-ass October drought conditions in the past. (click on any image to enlarge)
Simply put, the climate has always been changing, impacting large geographical regions at any given time. As the scientific empirical evidence makes clear, a changing climate is not unusual, and most definitely is not solely due to human CO2 emissions.
For someone to claim otherwise is literally anti-scientific.
Note: Source of images from this NOAA site. During 1988, global CO2 emissions first cracked the 350ppm CO2 level. NOAA reports that the October 1988 reading was 349.08.
The climate change fear-mongering generated by government-related persons and agencies has recently reached peak levels, with claims that are a mixture of absurd and just plain silly when compared to the empirical scientific evidence.
Such claims include the meme that rising global CO2 has caused accelerating, rapid US warming; that droughts are destroying all of our food crops; that more frequent and stronger weather disasters from warmer temperatures are wreaking untold harm; that global warming will shorten/threaten US life spans; that ever expanding wildfires are consuming our forests; and etc., etc., etc.
(One indeed wonders why so many Americans can't wait to retire to the tropical and warmer climates that Hawaii, Florida, Arizona and S. California offer if warm temperatures are so harmful and deadly.)
There are even bizarre claims that bumblebees' tongues are shortening and pumpkin pies are at risk, both supposedly due to global warming.
With all that said, the U.S. has the best weather and climate measurement capabilities in the world, with observations from a wide geographical dispersion and a extensive range of micro-climates, be it tropical islands or Arctic tundra. The most extensive and complete empirical evidence comes from the continental U.S., which the vast majority of the American population resides.
Instead of believing the promoters of doomsday screams about every single impending weather event being the next civilization-busting disaster, or the journo/pundits' propensity to shout about the hottest hour, the hottest day, week, month, summer and/or hottest year stats (take your pick) ad nauseum, it might be best to reflect on what the American public has realized about long-term climate change doomsday from the empirical evidence - it's a very thin nothing-burger.
To the empirical evidence.
The adjacent chart depicts several long-term climate record trends of 10-year averages (US hurricane landfalls, forest fire acres, drought, precipitation, maximum and average temperatures). The chart also includes the following 10-year average trends: atmospheric CO2 levels; the U.S. corn yield; and, the U.S. life expectancy trend from decadal census information.
As can be seen, the CO2 growth trend has been truly remarkable, only exceeded by the exceptional trend for corn yields (by the way, other agricultural crops also possess exceptional yield trends). And the increasing life expectancy trend for Americans is none too shabby either.
In contrast, the charts reveal the truly unexceptional, unremarkable long-term trends for any climate/weather attribute previously predicted to worsen from the modern era's CO2-induced climate change.
These fitted curve trends have yawn-inducing characteristics, indicating CO2 from fossil fuel combustion is spectacularly not the powerful greenhouse gas emission that experts conjectured about.
Conclusion: Although short-term variation extremes in weather attributes and incidents can be large and at times awe-inspiring, they are not climate change. Long-term climate change since the Little Ice Age has been dominated by a very slow warming, which the chart's 'average' and 'maximum' temperature trends reveal. The long-term climate change across the continental U.S. as represented by the precipitation, hurricane landfall events and drought are much more difficult to discern from their respective fitted trends (objectively, they are rather climatically insignificant overall). Forest fire acres burned has had an uptick in recent years (for bureaucratic reasons) but is vastly below levels reached in the early 20th century. All in all, human CO2 combustion emissions are directly linked to the great agricultural prosperity and vastly improved well being of the American citizen over the past century, much to the chagrin of doomsday cultists - whether yesteryear's or today's.
In other words, the politicos and bureaucrats predictions of gloom, doom and disasters were wrong, significantly.
Notes: Excel used to produce chart's fitted 2nd order trends. Sources of datasets used for chart can be found by downloading this Excel spreadsheet from MS OneDrive. For the temperature, precipitation and drought (PHDI) curves, 9-month YTD through September measurements from NOAA were used. CO2 levels used for its trend curve represents the September ppm value for each year. Corn yields represent the 'commodity and market' year reported. Both corn and CO2 had beginning values set to '10' in order that they would fit on a '0' to '150' y-axis (did not affect linear trends of either). Hurricane US landfalls observations used represent a per year average from the given decade's count of events. Life expectancy data are U.S. decadal averages for female/male and all races.
Western European elites have earned a reputation as not being the brightest bulbs on planet Earth. For most Americans, that was confirmed when in 2009 the Nobel committee awarded newly-elected President Obama the Nobel Peace Prize - prior to even a single accomplishment.
As always seems to happen, the elites of Europe have finally come to their rational senses, again recognizing that emotional childish infatuations neither make-the-man nor deliver good policies.
Case in point: After years of the failed Obama policies, the Germans, who have this unfortunate tendency to become infatuated with leaders of questionable qualities, now list Obama as the 5th worst Nobel Peace Prize recipient.
Good news for Obama, though. Germans now believe those climate-doomsday cult proponents, Al Gore and Rajendra Pachauri, rank as the 3rd worst recipients.
Gore, former V.P. of the U.S., and Pachauri, former chief of the UN's IPCC committee, once cult darlings, are being dismissed as irrelevant. And these two have been instrumental in making sure that the general public no longer is enamored with the doomsday anti-CO2 rhetoric. In fact, Germans are now burning even more dirty coal to meet their energy needs.
So, here's one to ponder: In order to get back in the EU elites' good graces, will Obama order a drone strike on the Gore/Pachauri clown-duo at the Paris COP21 climate conference?
Junkscience.com has recently contacted those universities allowing staff members to claim they had won the Nobel Peace Prize. So far, in all cases, it has exclusively involved climate alarmists making the false award claims.
Universities, to their credit, have removed or modified the claims once informed.
Hmmm...maybe universities should improve their due diligence methodology or at least do adequate background checks on awards and degrees. Posting bogus information regarding their staff is likely some form of false advertising, no?
And as is often the case, not a single mainstream media outlet discovered the institutional misrepresentation.
As the site 'Not A Lot of People Know That' reports, extreme and severe rainfall (i.e. precipitation) trend has not increased in Holland, when viewed from a decadal perspective.
The adjacent chart depicts the distribution of the top 50 DeBilt, Holland rainfall events while atmospheric CO2 levels increased over the decades. (Go here to view maximum hourly precipitation incidents versus global cumulative CO2 emission tonnes since 1950.)
For the record, on any given hour during any given day, someplace in the world is likely to be experiencing an extreme weather event. But as this Holland dataset confirms, the actual empirical global and regional trends of a climatic shift of ever more severe weather events do not support the alarmists' predictions; the irrational fears of more frequent/larger weather disasters as a result of CO2 or global/regional "warming" is unjustified, per the scientific evidence.
And it is indisputable that hundreds of media outlets have extensively documentedover the past century that weather catastrophes have always been a normal climate occurrence, regardless of greenhouse gas emissions.
Note: 'C3' used monthly CO2 levels from NOAA and superimposed the CO2 curve on the above chart.
Trusting the authorities and experts in the modern medical health and research fields has recently proven to be very dangerous to one's health, and costly to society.
Readers familiar with the ins-and-outs of climate science are well aware that incidents like Climategate proved that government scientists and bureaucrats, especially those with an agenda, could not be trusted to inform the public honestly.
Unfortunately for health patients, they too have blindly trusted for decades. They have trusted the advice of doctors and pharmaceutical experts claiming a "consensus" and the "settled" science that powerful statin medications must be taken to heal cardiovascular disease and prevent heart attacks.
Yet after decades of trust, the public is now learning that stains have a high potential of producing faster aging and undesirable brain effects. From the latest research:
"Statins make regular users become older faster, leaving them open to long-term mental and physical decline, according to disturbing new research...Scientists have found the heart disease drug badly affects our stem cells, the internal medical system which repairs damage to our bodies and protects us from muscle and joint pain as well as memory loss."
And it's not like the doctors and health experts had not been told that statins were proving to be dangerous. The patient anecdotal reports and medical research literature are littered with past reports of a wide variety of negative side effects that this class of pharmaceuticals has been associated with.
Despite all the damning statin evidence coming forth, the expert medical elites, with their anti-science agenda (which essentially amounted to accepting the non-evidence based claims from both pharma experts and many conflicted pharma-funded health organizations that these drugs were safe), kept pushing for the public's statin consumption to increase.
As we have stated before, it's not only the climate science advocates and their research that can't be trusted.
Simply stated: "Trust No One" and especially elites and experts with an agenda.
The climate doomsday-cult promoters at the Huffington Post and Climate Nexus did their usual thing, trying to convince the American public that Hurricane Joaquin was the result of global warming.
Of course, when the alarmists uttered these claims, they were based on the hurricane computer models that forecast Joaquin's path would strike the East Coast of the U.S. Fortunately for the coastal residents, the climate change doomsters were wrong, spectacularly.
Instead, as the adjacent chart clearly documents, those ocean waters have cooled since 1940, not warmed as predicted. Another case of 'those stubborn facts'.
In summary, the empirical evidence again confirms that climate simulations and computer models are very suspect regarding their capabilities at both short and long-term predictions/forecasts. Governing elites, bureaucrats and the public should absolutely not base any expensive policy-making decisions on these research tools.
Government-funded climate science is not the only research field where "experts" make bogus claims, conduct fraudulent science and report only cherry-picked data.
It's recently been uncovered that young people are potentially 10 times more likely to be violent and/or suicidal if consuming prescribed antidepressant drugs.
Turns out the scientists who developed this class of drugs failed to mention that these medications would produce unwanted outcomes, and the peer-reviewed journals subsequently failed to warn the public regarding the bogus science.
"The new study, published in the journal BMJ, proves the long-suspected dangers of the drug also known as Paxil, Aropax, Extine and Paxtine. Study leader Jon Jureidini said it raised wider implications about the need for medical researchers to publish their underlying data — standard practice in genomics and astronomy, but rare in medicine."
Michael Mann's infamous 'hockey stick' graph, used by the IPCC "experts" as propaganda to convince gullible elites that modern warming was unprecedented, has had its science and respectability torn asunder by a multitude of experts over the years.
The graph's lack of both science creditability and statistical robustness eventually caused the UN's IPCC to throw in the towel and exclude it from future climate reports.
Climate research in recent years has confirmed that the hockey stick deserved the ash heap of bad paleo-science it now resides in.
This has again been proven in the latest study, which shows the non-existence of the 'hockey stick' and the rather similar (yet less) modern warming versus that of the Medieval Period. The study's summer temperature reconstruction is adjacent.
Per NOAA, the U.S. warming pause (aka the 'Hiatus') has now achieved a 19-year stall (see adjacent chart). In fact, a slight cooling has been the trend over this period.
Remember the predicted global warming by experts? The same "experts" who predicted that hurricanes would become stronger and more frequent as a result of the global warming - which also did not happen.
As the empirical climate datasets reveal, the predicted global warming has amounted to about nil for close to two decades. And because of this, the global warming scientists recently resorted to exceptional fabrications of temperature datasets to produce "warming" that disappears the 'Pause'.
Ginning up climate change fears in anticipation of the Paris 2015 COP21 climate travesty show seems to be the driving force behind the most recent wholesale fake-warming production.
Back to the included chart. As depicted, the 19-year pause includes not only the continental U.S. (at -0.4°F per century cooling) but also the states of Virginia and Maryland, both at -0.5°F per century cooling.
Why depict those two state's temperature trends?
Because those states surround the metropolitan District of Columbia where federal bureaucrats, U.S. elected representatives and administration officials pontificate about the rapid and dangerous "global warming". These elites live and work in the D.C. micro-climate warming bubble that is a direct result of federal taxpayer asphalt, steel, concrete and airports with very hot jet exhausts, which in combination have produced a rapidly warming urban heat island (UHI).
The NOAA scientific empirical evidence is rather clear and undeniable. For most Americans, global warming is not an issue and is definitely not impacting their daily lives.
But for a minority of governing elites, who obviously created a hostile warming micro-climate for their work environment, it has made them incapable of distinguishing the climate forest from the micro-climate trees, so-to-speak. Or, put another way, they can't discern the difference between climate reality and climate fantasy.
Hmmm....maybe the best solution for saving the elites from their own, self-created hostile and climate change triggering environment is to disperse the federal government offices and personnel across rural locations throughout the U.S.
Note: The per century temperature trends for the continental U.S, Maryland, Virginia and D.C. were produced using NOAA's 12-month temperature periods ending in the month of August, through August 2015. Source of NOAA data used. NOAA images (a Zip file) of chart's calculated per century trends used.
The much embarrassing 'Pause' continues to ignore the predictions of the wrong-way IPCC and government-funded climate "scientists" - you know, the "experts" who have been long predicting end-of-the-world global warming since the late 80's.
The adjacent chart reflects poorly on the "consensus" science that unequivocally states the human CO2 emissions must first increase the lower troposphere temperatures in order to warm the Earth. This violation of the sacrosanct climate-agenda physics has become a real hiatus head-scratcher for scientists and journalists making a living off the govt-approved orthodoxy.
Despite 'those stubborn facts', the elites - i.e. bureaucrats and politicians - of the U.N. and national governments continue plans to party-in-Paris come late November, without any regard to actual climate reality. The political 'Agenda' and climate COP21 show must go on regardless of inconvenient evidence-based science.
Obama's own NOAA climate division reports that the empirical evidence documents clear and sustained cooling trends for both Alaska and the continental U.S. for the past 16 years.
Yet, when not too busy taking selfies near Alaskan glaciers, Obama spent time to prophesize about dangerous "global warming," thus exhibiting either a deep ignorance of real climate science and facts or an amazing dishonesty that journalists allowed him to get away with.
It's a sad state of affairs when a president is this badly out of touch with the evidence-based science that his own administration's science agencies are reporting.
NOAA's Alaska/US evidence also supports the global warming 'pause' that has proven to be a major embarrassment for those proponents of climate-doomsday angst.
Global warming hysteria and fear-mongering, as expressed by the fringe green groups, progressive Democrats and the extremists of the Obama administration, are reaching a peak as November's Paris COP21 climate summit is approaching. But is the hysteria warranted?
Over and over again the public hears from UN and national government bureaucrats that global warming is rapidly becoming dangerous and accelerating faster than that experienced in the past due to human CO2 emissions. U.S. politicians of extreme left-wing persuasion seem to be especially enamored with over-the-top climate catastrophic predictions, which makes sense since they propose more taxes and regulations to control Americans and businesses and, of course, to "save-the-world," so they say.
Seriously, is the hysteria and draconian proposals to eliminate fossil fuels even close to being warranted? Should President Obama really be proposing that the U.S. follow unproven and potentially reckless energy and economic policies based on climate-cult doomsday prophecies?
Well, the adjacent chart provides 12 reasons why Obama's obsession and the hysteria of progressives are plainly absurd.
Look close - indeed there are at least 12 previous presidential terms that experienced global warming rates (a.k.a., acceleration) greater than anything experienced over the last 6.5 years of Obama's administration.
In fact, the majority of the greatest 5-year acceleration (i.e., the highest warming rates) took place prior to 1950 when CO2 emissions were a fraction of today's levels.
The politicos' global warming hysteria appears even more contrived and manipulative when examining acceleration using a moving 6.5 year average for the 5-year acceleration rates. On the chart, the black curve is the 6.5 year moving average since 1860.
(Why 6.5 years? Through June 2015, Obama's term in office covers 6.5 years - 78 months.)
Simply put, the black curve represents 1,868 datapoints for global warming acceleration, thus comparing Obama's length of term with those occupying the White House prior. Exactly 1,170 of the datapoints exceed the June 2015 datapoint of "rapid" warming that has so panicked this administration.
Needless to say, global warming from human CO2 emissions is an exceptional yawner, and is in no sense a current legitimate threat when viewed in the context of recent climate history.
That's a climate FactCheck and undeniable. And here's more proof that the current warming rate is unexceptional.
Australian universities are well on the way towards establishing themselves as the cesspool of falsehoods and fraud regarding global warming and climate change.
And John Cook of University of Queensland has again confirmed that Down Under academia has sketchy regard for ethics and morals. Here is a university that seems to condone fabrications and lies regarding science issues by hiring a person known for being truth-challenged.
Plus, he's a person possessing questionable judgment skills (see here and here why he's dressed as a 'SS' Nazi, shown adjacent).
Cook, who is also the proprietor of the 'Skeptical Science' web site, has now been exposed as literally posing in comments on certain blog postings as the famous theoretical physicist, Luboš Motl. Simply put, this is premeditated identity theft meant to deceive. This reprehensible behavior was done under the auspices of a Western Australia University's "scientific" experiment, prior to his Queensland employment.
On top of that, Cook's fake comments misrepresented Motl's views about climate science - in other words, Cook just made up lies stuff.
Certainly, global warming alarmists long ago jumped-the-Nazi, so to speak, which Cook's most recent bizarro revelations obviously confirm. Then there are the previous Cook episodes that expose the level of global warming alarmist "science" B.S. - see here, here, here and here.
Then there is the University of Western Australia's ethics debacle in approving shoddy science by university employees and Cook's associates. This is the same university of the climate-doomsday cult that then decided to double-down on their support of the cult.
How much has NASA's GISS climate research unit increased global warming under the Obama administration?
The earliest monthly global dataset that we have available from NASA is the one produced for the August 2005 reporting period. Overall, that dataset contains 1,508 monthly observations since the beginning of 1880.
It seems that under Obama, NASA has conducted a global warming fabrications corrections effort, especially focused on the most recent decades since the 1970's.
Specifically, when comparing the newly adjusted NASA dataset to the one reported in August 2005, out of the 308 months spanning January 1980 through August 2005, NASA has warmed 302 months (only 2 months were cooled and 6 were left unchanged from the 2005 dataset).
Of the total warming adjustments corrections applied to the 1980's, 1990's and 2000's (through Aug 2005) they average out to a bureaucrat-made warming increase of +0.08°C per month.....
===> that's equal to a 96°C per century warming trend if NASA continues with a pattern of similar "corrections."
This NASA non-random treatment and purposeful changes of past empirical evidence is beyond just being anti-science. It is fraud-like, with the root cause being attempts by bureaucrat-scientists to meet the political and propaganda agendas of government elites - agendas that have been blatantly obvious over recent years.
Prior to the upcoming, yawn-producing UN's 2015 Paris COP21 greenhouse gas fear-mongering conference, one could surmise that NASA was charged with creating global temperatures that were the hottest ever, regardless of the integrity and credibility damage that the science community and objective scientific methodologies would sustain.
NASA provides ample evidence why scientists, bureaucrats and political elites should be held in contempt by the public. Literally, their utterances should never be trusted on any issue that requires an objective, impartial scientific treatment.
'Never trust, only verify' should be the new motto for the public to take to heart.
NOAA/NCDC has long been associated with fabricated global warming ..... in a way, they must aspire to be identified as the epitome of manipulative, anti-science methodologies.
From time to time, NOAA also exhibits the typical your-federal-govt-at-work "competence".
On their 'Climate-At-A-Glance' (CAG) web site, NOAA reports that the contiguous U.S. has been cooling at a rate of -0.6°F per century since January 1, 1994 (see pink rectangle on image). That's a 258-month period.
Surprise! Color me a skeptic.
Per the monthly absolute temperatures and anomalies that NOAA reports for the period from Jan 1994 to June 2015, there does not appear to be any obvious means to calculate a cooling trend. In fact, using the CAG supplied NOAA dataset for temperatures during that period, there is a warming trend of 1.68°F, calculated using Excel's slope function for a linear trend.
Indeed, from the same NOAA reported data, there is a U.S. cooling trend but it does not start until February 1996. Using either NOAA's reported 'Climate-At-A-Glance' absolutes or anomalies, that trend is a -2.28°F for the 19.4 year period (233 months).
The more recent reporting from NOAA is hardly an improvement - from 2010 thru June 2015 they are reporting a -44.33°F per century cooling trend. Ummm...I don't think so.
It's highly doubtful that NOAA will be on the airwaves anytime soon discussing a -44 degree cooling trend when they're required to scream "it's-the-hottest-ever" constantly.
Summary: "Ashville, we have a problem." Okay, is this a function of just a very poorly designed web page that simply misleads the public? Or, a reporting system with really bad quality control efforts? Or competence, maybe lack thereof? Or, a management team totally distracted by their political agenda priorities prior to Paris 2015? Or, yet another successful Chinese hack penetrating government "security"?
There is an anti-science political agenda that is driving governments to fabricate excess global warming that really does not exist.
When one listens carefully, the political agenda becomes obvious. And government-funded scientists certainly listen very carefully to their paymasters.
As a result, faux-science is pervasive.
Case in point: NOAA's bureaucracy "scientists" are seemingly dedicated to squeezing manufacturing new global warming from any and all past empirical measurements, every single month - literally.
Their quasi-religious green jihad against the historical climate records has just been well dissected and documented by Walter Dnes. The adjacent chart is his analysis, with some additions by 'C3' (bold green, red and cyan lines, chart text and title added to his original).
===> The 'C3' horizontal dark green line is placed at zero degree change; vertical red dashed lines represent the beginning of periods with extreme high frequency of warming adjustments; and cyan vertical dashed lines periods represent the beginning of periods with extreme high frequency of cooling adjustments.
As the chart depicts, from the 1880s thru the mid-1920s, the monthly temperature adjustments applied by NOAA appear to be somewhat random in regards to cooling and warming changes.
From approximately 1926 on though, NOAA's warming and cooling adjustments give all appearances of not being the least bit random, but specifically designed to make historically documented warming periods cooler (such as the extreme warming of 1930s) and the more recent warming of the last two decades - made to appear even greater than reported during real-time.
The most recent decades of non-random adjustments are clearly an attempt by agenda scientists to rid the NOAA global dataset of the very inconvenient and embarrassing 21st century 'pause', also called the 'hiatus.'
What many don't realize (i.e., politicians, policymakers and the public alike) is that NOAA adjusts the monthly historical climate records every single month. And within the next few days, NOAA will release a new historical dataset ending at June 2015, which will likely include some 80% of the monthly records back to 1880 being "adjusted" once again. And they will do the same for the July 2015 historical dataset.
The constant manipulation and adjusting of empirical measurements simply never ends - it's ad infinitum, déjà vu.
The global warming political agenda demands a convincing story, and the falsification is necessitated when nature does not cooperate with the global warming narrative.
Walter's article goes into much greater detail with many more charts - a definite read by those interested in faux-science perpetrated by govt types. But he has only dissected NOAA's fabrication adjustments from late 2010 and forward to the present. In reality, the fabrication of all temperature records started much earlier though, which can be seen here, here, here, here and here.
For the record, it's definitely not only the U.S. climate agencies that are knee-deep in the 'sɔıǝuɔǝ' cesspool of data falsification.
Note: For those wondering how 'science' was transformed to 'sɔıǝuɔǝ', it was created here.
Here's a chart that NOAA and other govt-funded global warming proponents are not about to advertise. Instead, rest assured, they will be cherry-picking the usual meme of hottest day or week or month or quarter and/or year to publicize.
But when longer periods are examined, those favored govt/media 'cherry-picks' start to look exceptionally lame in comparison.
For example, the NOAA web site produced this chart that allows analysis of average U.S. temperatures over 5-year periods (60-month periods). The chart starts in 1988 (5-years ending 1988) when NASA's chief global warming alarmist predicted (at a U.S. Senate hearing) that the U.S. would also suffer from the global warming trend with dire consequences.
As the chart reveals, the U.S. warmed thru June 1992; then cooled until end of June 1997; then significantly warmed thru June 2000; and has since experienced a cooling trend that stretches to June 30, 2015. Clarifying, from 2000-2015 covers a 16-year span, which indisputably shows a 'pause' in 5-year warming that NOAA correctly identifies as a cooling trend.
It's a cooling trend equaling 1.3°F per century. And not a single government sponsored climate expert, nor wildly expensive climate model, predicted such.
The major proponents of climate doomsday alarmism claim that the growth of human CO2 emissions from fossil fuels is causing a rapid growth of dangerous atmospheric CO2 levels.
But does the scientific empirical evidence support that claim?
In climate reality, not only is it a false claim, it is at best anti-science propaganda.
This chart plots the percent growth of fossil fuel CO2 emissions versus the percent growth of atmospheric CO2 levels since 1966. As can be observed, the emissions growth is on a strong declining trend whereas the atmospheric CO2 continues on its modestly increasing growth trend.
The R2 between the two depicted annual growth rate plots is an embarrassingly low 0.02 (zero comes to mind for some reason), which reflects an overall large negative trend of CO2 emissions percentage growth versus a small positive percentage growth trend for atmospheric CO2.
Question: If actual CO2 emission growth is a weak causal factor in atmospheric CO2 growth, then how exactly can it be a strong cause of dangerous "accelerating" growth of global warming, per the dogmatic AGW hypothesis?
Oh, that's right, global warming is not accelerating.
Note: Source of CO2 annual CO2 emissions tonnes and source of CO2 atmospheric CO2 levels. Growth percent calculations and chart plots accomplished using Excel. Update: Annual growth percents plotted are calculated using prior year measurement as numerator and following year measurement as denominator. Another update: typo on chart corrected - thank you, Tom Nelson.
As this chart depicts, atmospheric CO2 growth has been on a fast-track growth curve. CO2 levels have been accelerating up since 1960 - true relentless growth.
The dogmatic and conventional global warming hypothesis claims that this type of CO2 level growth will cause a dangerous increase of both atmospheric and surface temperatures, thus increasing atmospheric water vapor - i.e., humidity - leading to a positive feedback loop of non-stoppable accelerating global warming.
Clearly, as this chart of empirical evidence reveals, that has not happened. Atmospheric humidity has actually declined, while the atmosphere and ocean temperatures accelerate, decelerate and often develop cooling phases.
Unlike the monotonous, steady state, fast CO2 growth, the major climate measurements are highly variable, obviously unlinked to the CO2 input from humans.
However, per the evidence and the newest research, a case can be made that the non-acceleration and variability of global temperatures for the last 15+ years may have more to do with the 11-year cycles of sunspot activity not being as strong during recent solar peaks than the relentless CO2 growth.
Note: The dark purple, blue and red curves represent centered 37-month averages. The non-centered 37-month averages for CO2 (cyan dots) and RSS atmosphere temperature (green curve) were superimposed on the original chart found here.
Article: The establishment climate science experts have long pushed their favored policy of fossil fuel energy production being replaced by renewable energy sources. The indisputable result has been a literal green energy fiasco in many countries as political leaders fall all over themselves to make taxpayers massively subsidize the green energy projects of billionaires and powerful corporations.
Yet when informed high-tech analysis is applied to an objective review of renewable green energy, it becomes readily apparent that current renewable energy options are abject failures on all counts, including the goal of reducing global warming.
Article: The consensus quackery that medical dogma, experts, politicians and mainstream media have promulgated over 3 decades has proven to be a health disaster.
In America and other other industrialized countries, government bureaucrats and health research elites relying on non-validated science have essentially ruined the public's health with growing epidemics: obesity, diabetes and multiple related chronic diseases.
Similar to today's popular "consensus" obsessionjihad science against CO2, the anti-fat and anti-cholesterol hypothesis of heart disease was embraced by all the right-thinking experts, special interest groups and politicos.
This was a mandated politically-correct consensus: fat and cholesterol were the enemy and needed to be eliminated - an enemy that turns out was never supported by the actual empirical evidence.
Now after 30+ years of literally wreaking havoc on the health of millions with bad medical science and absurd advice, the experts are finally being forced to admit they were stupendously wrong and skeptics were right.
In the meantime, people's lives have been shortened and healthcare costs have been increased by trillions due to an unbelievable surge of chronic diseases tied directly to government diet nutrition quackery.
But a tipping point has now been reached, with objective scientists and the public finally rejecting the quacks who remain possessed by the irrational fears of saturated fat and cholesterol.
Article: Current knowledge about ocean circulations (AMOC and others) and their variability are so unsettled that the most sophisticated and powerful climate models are completely unable to accurately forecast these gargantuan climate forces.
Ocean circulation is responsible for the immense global heat transport that affects every facet of world climate. And yet, the scientists remain perplexed as to the mechanics and intricacies of the entire system.
But what do the climate scientists know for sure? Well...that human CO2 emissions have absolutely nothing to do with this natural ocean circulation heat transport and weather system. That part is settled.
Article: This new study for the northern China Sea is just another recent example of empirical evidence supporting past research regarding the global warming experienced during both the Roman and Medieval periods.
And don't forget, that for a brief period, the IPCC's "consensus experts" attempted to claim that modern global warming was unprecedented. But that attempt failed miserably when it became obvious a mountain of peer-reviewed studies easily refuted the "unprecedented" claim.
The Pope's climate doomsday encyclical has generated a lot of controversy; and has probably doomed him to be eventually nominated for the Catholic 'hall of shame' for fear mongering anti-science.
Of course, it's not completely the Pope's fault for his ignorance. The Pope's gatekeepers and advisers can take much of the credit for making sure he did not hear about the actual climate science empirical evidence.
One climate doomsday scenario (among many) that continues to have no basis in climate science reality is the infamous prediction that Gaia will soon have a Venus-like atmosphere and boiling oceans...because of humans fossil fuel use. You can rest assured that Pope Francis was made aware of the potentiality of this fringe calamity.
It's a calamity that has long been pushed by the world's leading climate science alarmists.
NASA's former top climate expert, James Hansen, has been in the past a principal proponent of this particular doomsday prophecy. And of course, he provided the dramatic testimony to Congress in the summer of 1988 that really initiated the fear mongering in the U.S. regarding catastrophic global warming and climate change disasters - like turning Earth into Venus.
Unfortunately for the Pope, James Hansen and other hysterical climate doomsday soothsayers, the real world empirical evidence clearly shows that the world's climate is self-correcting and not prone to those scary predicted tipping points and runaway disasters from growing atmospheric CO2 levels.
Case in point: The Tropics (20S to 20N latitudes) - A Venus Doomsday?
The above chart plot reveals a tropical climate, as measured by satellites, experiencing a very slight cooling trend (blue curve) over the last 20 years. In contrast, the IPCC's latest climate model (CMIP5/RCP4.5) curve (green line) predicted a significant warming trend during that same 20-year period.
Going back even further, the red chart plot depicts an 83-month period of exceptional warming right after the Hansen testimony of 1988. In contrast, the IPCC climate models predicted a significant cooling trend for the Tropics for those 83 months - an abysmal failure, represented by a 7 degree trend difference between reality and prediction.
Needless to say, although we will, both the consensus climate experts and climate models have been spectacularly wrong in their doomsday projections for the Tropics, which means that human CO2 causing Venus-like conditions for Gaia has no basis in climate science reality.
It's unfortunate that this pope fell victim to his own gullibility and the anti-science machinations of his court jesters advisers. But there is good news for the Catholic masses: you can now also comfortably ignore this encyclical since it was produced from the irrational passion of fear versus the known rational, empirical climate science.
NOAA's latest U.S. temperature dataset reveals that over last 20 years (including 1996), May temperatures have been on a cooling trend: a -0.8°F/century trend.
In addition, the same dataset for 12-month periods ending May shows a cooling trend over 19 years. That trend is a -0.4°F/century.
Regardless if one refers to these climate temperature dynamics as a 'pause,' a 'stall,' a 'hiatus,' or a 'plateau,' it was not expected - no alarmist hypothesis or theory-based scenario predicted this outcome.
Note: Temperature trends are for the continental U.S. The official climate agency source of trends and chart.
It is well documented that global temperature acceleration has significantly paused since 1998, despite the global CO2 emissions growth rate easily exceeding the business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios presented by NASA's James Hansen way back in 1988.
Yet the UN's Paris2015 proposed deep cuts in "dangerous" global CO2 emission growth rates will only delay "climate doomsday" by a laughable 8 months. And that would be accompanied by a likely debilitating economic impact of trillions of dollars - mostly suffered by the world's poor and most vulnerable.
The chart on left plots the most up-to-date 15-year average growth rates of CO2 emissions versus the global economy 15-year average growth rates. Surprisingly, as the GDP growth rate declines, on average, CO2 emissions growth just continues.
With that pointed out, it's also pertinent to point out that over the last 15 years the U.S. total emissions have actually shrunk, as well as those of the EU. In contrast, CO2 emissions for other major world economic regions have robustly increased over the last 15 years.
Political expedience, and a craving to please, truly corrupts scientists and the science they produce...in an era when science fraud is on an exponential rise, one would think that climate agencies would be more careful with their scientific integrity...especially in a year of a major climate conference...did NOAA just provide a new Climategate-effort of science deception?...similar to what sunk Copenhagen2009?.....
(click on graph to enlarge)
The past several days has seen much written about the new revision of the NOAA global temperature dataset - a revision that supposedly eliminates the global warming 'pause' or if you prefer, the 'hiatus'.
The revision has received withering scrutiny, with multiple significant criticisms being leveled. Clearly, as the critics point out, this revision is not based on any known physical science principles, nor on any new empirical evidence, but instead on a political agenda that demands "scientists" find more global warming, pronto, for the Paris 2015 climate elite bureaucrats hookup extravaganza.
By utilizing questionable adjustments based on even more questionable assumptions, NOAA managed to produce an entirely fabricated increase in the global warming trend from 1998 to 2012. Theirs is not a real global warming event, it is essentially nothing more than statistical flimflam.
Per the critics, several key failings include:
The complete ignoring of the world's best climate measurement technologies - satellites and the Argo ocean-float array system - likely ignored because both technologies show little if any warming in their respective realms.
The authors provided a statistical significance level of a remarkably lame .10 - so lame it pretty much alone indicates this study's claims have the lasting robustness of toilet paper after flushing.
This study significantly lowered sea surface temperatures, specifically from 1998-2000. This lowering had the immediate impact of making the temperature rise from 2000-2012 appear much larger than it really was.
Study used Arctic land temperatures to manufacture rising Arctic sea temperatures - conveniently ignoring that regional sea temperatures are almost always zero (0°C) since sea ice stretches across the area for a majority of a given year.
In a rather bizarre manner that non-biased scientists would not employ, this study massively adjusted up the ocean buoy temperature measurements in order to match the ship records of engine water intake temperature; yet the buoys were designed to measure surrounding sea temperatures, and the engine intakes were not. Scientists familiar with this issue agree that the ship engine enhanced temperature measurements should have been adjusted down instead.
Despite all the ludicrous adjustment machinations this newest NOAA revision relies on, the per century global warming trend fabricated (for the 1998 to 2012 period) remains well below even the IPCC's average climate model projections.
Relevant to that last point, is the above chart. It's a comparison of warming trends during the 15-year periods ending 2012 (see blue rectangles) and 1997 (see red circles).
Using climate agency temperature anomalies that were reported as of the end of 2012, one can clearly see the dramatic drop in global warming rates from the earlier 1983-1997 period versus the period ending 2012.
Did it still warm from 1998 to 2012?
Yes, it did. But it was at a fraction of the warming trend of the previous 15 years - a definitive slowdown versus the prior warming trend.
And as the chart reveals, the CMIP models (the RCP 4.5 scenarios) expected significantly more warming than observed during 1998-2012 period. Objectively, the models predicted an accelerating warming rate, which actually failed to happen, as the empirical evidence proves.
Because of this decline ('pause'?) in global warming trends, NOAA felt compelled to simply fabricate more warming in a rather feeble attempt to make global warming seem more of a existential threat that might even scare an anti-capitalism Pope into embarrassing fear-mongering.
Unfortunately for the "scientists" at NOAA, despite all their really lame statistical shenanigans, the revised NOAA temperature trend for the 15-year period ending 2012 is still a quite tepid 0.9°C per century - indeed, the descriptor 'lukewarm' readily comes to mind.
Article: From the science-is-never-settled department, a new study utilizing satellite technology measures Antarctica's albedo. It is found to be increasing overall, thus increasing the solar radiation reflected back into space. Ergo, there be climate cooling forces at work despite record atmospheric levels of CO2.
Article: The myth that modern global warming is "unprecedented" continues despite the overwhelming empirical evidence that debunks the myth. This study from China provides additional proof that natural climate change is a powerful driving force that produces warning phases without human intervention.
Article: Researchers analyze empirical evidence across 8 Korean cities. It is inescapable, cold extremes are much more dangerous for humans than heat waves. Cold waves boost admissions some 50% versus 5% for heat waves. From this peer-reviewed study, one can conclude that global warming will reduce the cold extremes, thus making it safer for human life.
Article: Since 1980s, the Australian region has experienced a tropical cyclone trend that would send shivers down the spine of any global warming alarmist. Just another confirmation to be added to the pile of empirical evidence that challenges catastrophic global warming claims.
Article: It's indisputably obvious - the attack on scientific honesty and credibility is taking place at the highest levels of government. The EPA pursues a blatant strategy of the 'ends-justify-the-means,' thus trashing the requisites of scientific methodology and integrity.
This followup article confirms the sanctioned malfeasance of promoting environmental regulations that can't pass any strenuous cost-benefit analysis.
Article: The EU's major industrial powerhouse is fast becoming a 90-pound weakling - sapped by the incredibly stupid energy policy known as Energiewende. The renewable fiasco has becomes so bad that German politics are severely split as to solutions, with the dominant solution being an increased reliance on CO2-producing coal energy.
As this chart depicts, energy prices for German consumers is on an exponential path skyward since the renewable polices were aggressively pursued.