The empirical evidence is indisputable and unequivocal.
The continental U.S. has been cooling (-6.5°F/century rate) over the last 15 years, per NOAA. This can no longer be denied by the scientific community and the politicians fanatically pushing the anti-science claim that dangerous and rapid global warming is taking place, due to human CO2 emissions.
This chart plots the most recent monthly U.S. temperatures through January 2014, including the simple 36-month moving average of CO2 atmospheric levels over the last 180 months.
While "global warming" activists/proponents focus on superficial, short-term cherry-picks of the "hottest ________" (just fill in the blank with 'day', 'week', 'month', 'quarter', 'year', etc. to mimic a typical fanatic's cherry-picking spiel), those stubborn climate facts, which are critical, remain simple: the entire globe has experienced a long warming 'pause' and America's climate has been on a cooling trend over that same time span.
Scientists are unable to explain this 'standstill' using the "consensus" AGW hypothesis, and any discussions of the 'inconvenient' U.S. cooling trend are entirely avoided by politicians, climate agency scientists/bureaucrats and other warming advocates.
The observed current U.S. cooling trend is not a prediction, but it does indicate that the continental landmass is affected by powerful, non-CO2 greenhouse gas factors that may continue for the near future.
Note: Chart's linear trend is calculated using monthly absolute temperature values. If using anomalies instead, based on monthly averages from 1901 to 2000 base period, the per century cooling trend is -2.4°F.
Datasets used to create Excel charts, averages, trends and etc. Don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy. Go here to learn how.
Over the last 30 years, the globe has warmed, which no scientist denies.
Likewise, all scientists agree with the NOAA scientific climate facts: ocean warming over the 30 years ending 2013 is not "unprecedented."
Per NOAA, prior to the modern era's huge industrial/consumer CO2 emissions, the global ocean warming was significantly greater, approaching the 2 degree per century rate in 1945.
This prior exceptional warming across the world was duly noted by the mainstream press at the time (scroll down to the 1940s on this page to learn more about previous global warming).
As this accompanying chart of NOAA empirical evidence shows, the 30-year warming rate ending in 1945 was 1.6 times greater than that of the current 30-year period ending in 2013.
And this unprecedented warming of ocean waters occurred during a 30-year period when human CO2 emissions were some 85% less than the modern era (166 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions versus 784 billion tonnes for the most recent 30-year span).
The climate 'FactCheck' summary: the world's climate has experienced a declining ocean warming rate since the 1940s, which contradicts the "consensus" anthropogenic global warming hypothesis, per NOAA. Just another case of those-stubborn-facts ... modern ocean warming is not unprecedented.
Scientists associated with the UN's IPCC predicted that the huge consumer/industrial emissions of the modern era would cause not only "unprecedented" global warming but also dangerous "runaway" warming, which would then produce "tipping point" climate change.
The climate science consensus today is that these speculative climate forecasts, based on flawed computer models, did not happen and expert analysis of the gold-standard of temperature datasets (the UK's global HadCRUT4) confirms it.
As this adjacent chart reveals, modern warming increases over the last 60 years don't even match the warming increases of the prior 60-year period, when earlier human emissions were just a fraction of contemporary amounts. (The vast difference of increases for atmospheric CO2 levels, between the two 60-year periods, is depicted on the chart - an 18ppm increase for the earlier period versus an 82ppm increase for the modern 60-year period.)
The climate science fact that huge modern CO2 emissions did not generate the expected runaway warming over the long-term, nor even over the shorter-term, now has the establishment science journals questioning the obvious - how was the IPCC so wrong?
And this empirical evidence refutation of conventional climate science has become so glaring, that even the traditional mainstream press is finally taking notice that something is truly amiss regarding the IPCC's climate science orthodoxy.
IPCC scientists assume that human CO2 emissions will continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, remaining anywhere from hundreds to thousands of years.
This assumption is a cornerstone of the AGW hypothesis. The cumulative CO2 growth causes global warming that accelerates (they hypothesize) to a condition of "runaway" temperature increases via positive feedbacks, leading to catastrophic "tipping point" climate change.
To simplify, the CO2-centric AGW hypothesis, and climate models, assume that every additional emission molecule of atmospheric CO2 will accelerate the global warming, to the point of no return. Thus, each new tonne (metric) of CO2 will boost the acceleration via a theoretical positive feedback amplification.
But does the empirical evidence actually indicate that is indeed what is taking place?
Using a combination of the NOAA annual global temperature dataset and two sources of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, it can be determined how each new tonne of CO2 emissions is "accelerating" temperatures, or not.
This article's chart provides the answer. As can be observed, each new CO2 emission molecule added to the climate has a smaller and small impact, the opposite of the AGW hypothesis. In 1941, the degree increase per tonne hit a peak. Since then, the impact of each tonne has decreased, significantly - currently it stands at +0.00000000000021°C/tonne.
The AGW hypothesis does not account for this ever smaller impact of CO2. Possibly this is the reason for the "consensus" unexpected global warming 'hiatus', which the IPCC scientists are still at a loss to explain.
If this tiny impact stays constant over the next 30 years, and the growth rate of CO2 emissions over the last 15 years remains the same for the next 30 years (another trillion tonnes emitted), the potential increase of global temperatures will barely be +0.2°C (two-tenths of a degree) by year 2044. And if each tonne's impact continues to shrink, as the evidence suggests, so will the temperature increase shrink.
Now, adding to this miserably low warming influence of CO2 is the recent admission by establishment climate science that natural climatic forces have a powerful say in the trend of global temperatures, regardless of human CO2 emissions. As the Nature science journal indicates, currently, and for the near future, a natural PDO cooling phase may dominate.
More on the above 'C3' chart. Specifically, it plots a ratio of 30-year NOAA temperature changes to the cumulative amount of CO2 tonnes emitted up to that point. For example, the 1941 ratio has a numerator of +0.59°C (30-year annual temperature change) and a denominator of 165 billion CO2 tonnes (the cumulative amount emitted from 1880 through 1941). This ratio calculation is made for each year, starting with 1910 (30 years after 1880).
The ratio allows for depicting visually the influence of all those previous CO2 emissions on moving 30-year climate periods. The chart's additional green and light blue curves simply provide a smoothed sense of direction of the fossil fuel emission influence.
Summary: The observed shrinking of CO2's influence on global warming does not bode well for the future longevity of the AGW hypothesis. Per the well known and documented CO2 physics, this outcome should not be a surprise. It's just another case of 'those stubborn facts' in science.
Per the IPCC's gold-standard of global temperature measurements, since the late 1800s, the highest per century warming trend achieved occurred during the 42-year period ending in 1949.
Simply stated, that is when the actual "unprecedented" global warming acceleration was witnessed.
The accompanying graph establishes this as fact, when put in the IPCC context that modern global warming started with the year 1950. This is the decade of the modern era that the newest IPCC report asserts when human CO2-induced climate change began. (See the red circle? More on that fact in a bit.)
Depending on which IPCC spokesperson's claim is to be believed, since 1950 the "accelerating" global warming is not only unprecedented, it's "rapid", "dangerous", "irrefutable", "indisputable", "undeniable", "incontrovertible" and, of course, "irreversible".
However, the empirical evidence does not support any of these claims.
First, the adjacent chart's essentials. The modern period of 1950 to 2013 is 64 years long, which the IPCC characterizes as being dominated by human CO2 emissions with little natural climate influence. The chart's orange curve represents this modern period.
The chart's green plot represents the 64 years ending in 1949 (from 1886 to 1949), the year designated by the IPCC as the end of natural climate change's dominant impacts. Okay, now note the red circle and red dashed line that intersects the green curve: that's when unprecedented warming took place.
Adding some more context, each of the two 64-year periods had human CO2 emissions. For the modern period since 1950, an approximate 1.2 trillion tonnes of human CO2 emissions were released, while the earlier period had some 200 billion tonnes - that's a 6x difference.
Yet, as this charts reveals, the per century warming trends are remarkably similar with the fastest warming acceleration happening in the earlier period. This overall similarity takes place despite the incredible increase of human CO2 emissions after 1949.
Indeed, there are amazing similarities between the two periods but they do have differences. There is a significant divergence of trends at the 24-year mark where the modern warming trend starts to decline while the pre-1950 trend continues to increase for another 7 years. In addition, at the 11-year mark, the modern temperature trend does an abrupt reversal from negative (i.e. cooling trend) to warming for the next 4 years, then it reverses again until it also reaches a cooling trend for the 5-year mark ending 2013.
Ultimately, what is the overall impact of CO2 emissions on modern climate change when using the IPCC's year 1950 start? Over the 64 years ending in 2013, the global warming trend was +0.74°C per century. In contrast, the per century trend was +0.65°C for the earlier 64-year period ending 1949.
That's correct, all that separates these two extended periods of global warming is likely an unmeasurable +0.09°C - nine hundredths of a single degree.
The UK's HadCRUT4 global empirical evidence makes it very clear: modern acceleration of warming temperatures is not unprecedented, nor unusual due to CO2 emissions; nor does the modern period exhibit any warming trend that comes close to even 1.5°C per century. In summary, it is highly probable that any modern warming was just a continuation of rebound warming after the end of the Little Ice Age. In other words, natural climate change still rules.
Synopsis: The unprecedented, long-term climate change and global warming actually took place over 40 years ago.
One of the reasons that the UK's HadCRUT global temperature series is considered the 'gold-standard' is its reaching back to year 1850 - a year that is considered near the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA).
This dataset's superior length allows analysis of long-term climate change since the LIA, including the widely accepted 60-year cycle of global temperatures.
The adjacent chart plots 60-year global temperature changes and cumulative atmospheric CO2 level changes since 1850, using the annual HadCRUT4 dataset.
From this chart, the following can be discerned:
===>Long-term climate change (60-years), as evidenced by temperature change, has been increasing as the globe has rebounded from the depths of the Little Ice Age
===>Long-term warming started well in advance of huge modern consumer/industrial CO2 emissions of post-WWII.
===>Unprecedented warming ended with the 60-year peak around 1969 and subsequent long-term warming has returned to very modest levels.
===>Claimed "accelerating" temperature warming does not exist in the more recent long-term record - however, there are 60-year periods of cooling and warming spurts that are the likely result of natural cycles.
===>Both the chart's fitted trend and 10-year average curve (cyan and dark blue, respectively), reveal a temperature change direction that is vastly different (i.e. opposite) of the trend exhibited by the growing cumulative CO2 ppm levels.
===>The hypothesized AGW positive feedback, which supposedly leads to accelerating temperature increases and long-term, "tipping point" climate change, is without any empirical evidence merit
===>Prior to 1970, HadCRUT4 documents four exceptional 60-year warming peaks that are equal or larger than either the modern era's 1998 and 2010 peak.
===>The chart depicts long-term climate change (per changes in temperatures) that is constant, never ending - at times dramatic, and other periods, exhibiting more subtle changes
In summary, the immense growth of cumulative CO2 levels over the last 40+ years has had minimal long-term impact on global temperature change. Recent temperature changes are more likely the result of a combination of the remaining natural warming rebound from the LIA end and natural cycles, which produced those large 60-year temperature increases prior to 1970.
Over the past decade, the public and policymakers have come to realize just how atrocious climate models are at predictions, forecasting and future climate scenarios.
Honestly, it's a wonder anyone still listens to any of the conventional, "consensus" climate modelers at this point, especially the modeling "experts" at NASA.
This chart depicts the famous global warming predictions made by NASA's chief climate scientist in 1988 at a hearing before the U.S. Senate.
NASA's James Hansen declared that if the world did not change its way, and kept emitting CO2 in the 'business-as-usual' (BAU) manner, global warming would skyrocket, threatening all of civilization. This is the 'Scenario A' plot on the chart.
Well.....not only has the world matched the 'BAU' growth of the 15 years prior to the 1988 testimony, we have increased the CO2 emission tonnes growth from 1.8% per year to 2.2% (the 15 years prior to 2013). To put those numbers into context, from 1972 through 1987, humans emitted 302 billion tonnes of CO2; in contrast, from 1998 through 2012 humans produced 461 billion tonnes.
Yet, despite the NASA "expertise" and the gigantic growth of human CO2 emissions, actual global temperatures over the past 25 years have closely matched Hansen's 'Scenario C', which he predicted would take place if CO2 emissions had been limited to year 2000 levels.....didn't happen.
Unexpectedly (i.e. not predicted), global temperatures flat-lined and CO2 emissions continued on their merry, amazing growth path, unabated.
Regarding climate reality, the lack of global warming was not a prediction that climate models were programmed to produce. The models do not rely on natural climate change or natural climate warming and cooling attributes. It is not in the models' software "DNA" because human climate experts really don't understand the chaotic nature of Earth's climate, nor comprehend the true power of nature.
The experts are befuddled and recognize that they are without a rational reason for the global warming pause, other than the obvious: natural climate change.
If the current 17-year trend continues, the oceans would warm by an almost unmeasurable one-tenth of a degree Celsius by year 2100. (The 17-year period is 204 months, starting with January 1, 1997 - that is before the super El Nino phenomenon of 1997-1998)
The adjacent charts (courtesy of ocean expert Bob Tisdale) plot the temperature changes for each major ocean basin since late 1981.
The red vertical line on each chart denotes the date of January 1997. The trend data in the corner of each chart assumes the trend from 1997 will continue to year 2100 (warming: trends are not predictions).
From these individual charts, we learn that the northern hemisphere is warming while the southern isn't; it's warming for all the Atlantic basins yet cooling for all the Pacific basins.
Clearly, the CO2-centric AGW hypothesis, and its associated climate models, provide no explanation for this mishmash. It's hard enough for the "experts" to even explain why the Arctic basin warming took off in recent years, while the Southern Ocean basin did the exact opposite, let alone trying to make sense of this global 'mishmash' using the rather lame construct of CO2 greenhouse gas causation.
Summary: The expert consensus was wrong about global warming; the AGW hypothesis is without empirical evidence merit; climate science is not settled, nor will it be in near future; and climate change will continue regardless of CO2 emissions.
Note: Bob Tisdale used NOAA's Nomad web site to create the charts. The Nomad ocean dataset is the highest resolution climate record available but it only goes back to 1981. Bob Tisdale article the charts pulled from.
NASA's climate research arm, GISS, recently updated its global temperature dataset.
Using the annual temperature anomaly data from GISS, in combination with annual CO2 data from NOAA, the temperature increase per atmospheric CO2 ppm increase can be calculated.
Now, if global warming is solely a function of increases in atmospheric CO2 levels, then calculating the degree increase per ppm added would be a convenient measure to monitor.
As this chart reveals, for the 50-year period ending 1963, for each ppm increase of CO2 there was an associated increase of +0.024°C; in contrast, for the 50-year period ending 2013, the impact on warming was 67% less per ppm.
This diminishing influence of a new CO2 molecule over time is actually a function of known climate physics - the logarithmic effect of carbon dioxide. Essentially, from lab testing it was determined that increasing levels of CO2 caused a diminishing returns effect, which is better described here.
The logarithmic relationship between CO2 levels and global temperature was first presented way back in the 1930s by a scientist named Guy Callendar, and it is now widely accepted as science fact.
And as the entire world knows by now, global warming is stuck in 'The Hiatus' that has resulted in temperatures barely budging over the last 16 years. This is despite the prodigious amounts of new CO2 emissions over that time span - recall, as the chart indicates, the influence of CO2 has declined.
What this means is that future CO2 emission impacts will likely continue to lessen, to the point where they become rather inconsequential, which the climate may already be approaching in a manner faster than expected.
Certainly, it would seem this fellow Callendar was really onto something. Plus, he discounted the speculative idea that higher levels of CO2 would create a positive feedback supposedly leading to ever higher temps. It appears he was wise to dismiss the shaky concept of "tipping point" positive feedbacks.
Not bad for a scientist without the "benefits" of super-computers, satellites, IPCC conferences, huge government funding of climate research and etc.
Obama quote: ”Climate change is a fact. And when our children’s children look us in the eye…”
…they’ll wonder why a guy with a carbon footprint estimated at 41,000 tons, who sends his family and dogs off on separate flights for vacations in far off ritzy spots, who takes crosscountry flights to give 30 minute speeches, who keeps the White House at a toasty 77F, and who goes to the golf course every couple of weeks in a 17 vehicle motorcade has the cajones to lecture anyone."
As the recent Pew poll before it, this WSJ survey confirms the real disbelief that Americans have about "climate change" and their opinions about the said competence of this president.
There is an enduring myth that global temperatures are accelerating, produced by ever greater amounts of human CO2 emissions released into the atmosphere. The myth is popularized by anti-science propagandists, who are either driven by political agendas or irrational fears.
The myth facilitators actually claim that the world is currently experiencing rapid and dangerous global warming. This ludicrous claim is completely counter to all known empirical, scientific evidence.
At least 97% of climate scientists would not make this claim, since it is well established that global temps have stalled for 16+ years, and even the most pro-AGW scientists are now admitting that the lack of warming is likely due to natural forces.
The enduring myth of "accelerating" is a leftover from earlier IPCC climate reports and the original AGW hypothesis that speculated greater levels of atmospheric CO2 would generate "runaway" global warming leading to a catastrophic "tipping point" climate change. That's how 'AGW' turned into 'CAGW'.
Well, neither has happened, which the indisputable and unequivocal evidence is clear about.
The above chart plots the changing 3-year linear trend slopes using monthly observations going back to 1850 (this is the HadCRUT4 dataset from the UK climate research agency - it is the only global dataset going back that far).
The plot clearly shows that temperatures will achieve short-term accelerations, both cooling and warming. The evidence also shows that any acceleration is a temporary phenomenon that then is reversed. The greatest period of accelerating warming took place during the late 1870s when a short-lived +23.4°C per century pace was reached.
The greatest acceleration for the modern era was reached in 1998 (+17.5°C per century rate), some 6 degrees below the earlier record a 100+ years before. The 1998 peak was a direct result of natural climate forces, the super El Nino of 1997-1998.
The chart also includes a 3-year average plot of atmospheric CO2 levels, which reflects a never-ceasing growth (exception being WWII years).
Obviously, to the eye, the level of CO2 has no relationship with "accelerating" cooling or warming. The statistical correlation between CO2 and acceleration level is barely above zero - an indicator that the agenda-driven myth has absolutely no empirical legs, so-to-speak.
Finally, the chart has a 120-period (10-year) average of the 3-year per century trends of acceleration/deceleration. This dark curve has a black circle around the 2013 endpoint. Simply put, accelerating, rapid warming is not happening presently (but rest assured, it will happen in the future, just like it has in the past - and that's what natural climate change does, no human CO2 required).
Peer reviewed studies continue to be published, adding to the unequivocal evidence that climate change was common in the past, often with temperatures higher than modern averages.
The evidence confirms that modern temperatures are not unprecedented nor that human CO2 emissions are required for climate change to happen.
A new study:"A paper published today in Global and Planetary Change reconstructs temperatures in Northern Fennoscandia [within the Arctic circle] over the past 1,600 years.....demonstrating that the Arctic was warmer than the present during the Medieval Warm Period. The paper adds to over 1,000 peer-reviewed published non-hockey-sticks finding the Medieval Warm Period was global, as warm or warmer than the present, and that there is nothing unusual, unnatural, or unprecedented about the current warm period.....Furthermore, the authors find a natural 70-80 year oscillation of temperatures, similar to the 60-70 year oscillation of the natural Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO]." (paper abstract)
Recently, the world's major climate agencies published their year-end empirical datasets for global temperatures.
How does actual climate reality compare with the IPCC's 2013 proclamation that their "extremely likely" predictions of global temperatures? With 95% certainty, embarrassingly bad. (click on chart to enlarge)
The chart on the left is a plot of the IPCC's RCP4.5 model output versus the climate reality, as represented by the UK's HadCRUT4 global monthly temperature dataset. The bright red and blue curves are simple 3-year moving averages that visually removes all the monthly gyrations.
It is clear that the IPCC's state-of-the-art 2013 climate models start diverging from climate reality around the 1995 period. And the divergence continues to widen to the point where one could conclude that any future output will be extremely unlikely to be of any value to policymakers.
Put another way, these billion-dollar, taxpayer-funded super-computer model simulations have performed atrociously, and are entirely worthless at predicting future climate scenarios.
How did this happen?
While the IPCC's associated climate "experts" are going through their own set of mental gyrations to explain the abysmal climate model and AGW hypothesis performances, two scientists explain how this failure was produced - article number one and article number two.
If you are curious as to the 'whys' of IPCC climate consensus failure, these articles are a must read. For those short on time, though, in a nutshell a compiled summary of reasons for failure:
natural climate variability ignorance
de-emphasis of large uncertainty
dogmatic co2-AGW orthodoxy
Until the above are adequately addressed and fixed, the probability that climate models will predict with accuracy that policymakers can actually rely on is extremely unlikely, with 99.9% certainty.
As the climate science experts and the empirical climate record datasets confirm, there has been no global 'climate-significant' warming since 1998.
Then there is the question of 'statistically-significant' warming - has it happened?
When this subject is discussed by individuals, it's not always clear what they mean. For this article, a statistically-significant global warming means that the linear trend (slope of the trend line) is likely greater than zero with 95% statistical confidence (i.e. the 95% error bars do not include a possible 0.0 or negative temperature degree slope).
Or, using a very simplified example, a calculated (estimated) linear global warming trend, of say 1.50°C/century, is not statistically-significant if the error bars are at ±1.55°C. If the 1.55 error is subtracted from the 1.50 linear trend, an actual possible trend could potentially be negative, not positive, nor even zero.
For more about statistically-significant global warming, there is an expert discussion here. Using the 2013 year-end major temperature datasets listed in that expert discussion, the above grid table (click on to enlarge) represents the lack of statistically-significant warming for each dataset. (When reading the WUWT article, remember that a statistically-significant warming trend does not necessarily mean that it is a climate-significant trend.)
In summary, the table depicts (for those listed climate records) the lack of statistically-significant warming since mid-1997. That's 16+ years. For two of the datasets, it's now up to at least 20 years without a statistically-significant global warming trend.
So, what's that gotta do with '4 Hiroshima bombs per second', you ask?
Well.....the CAGW dead-enders would like everyone to forget about the actual empirical evidence and statistical facts, and instead, focus on the concept that possibly global warming is adding some 4 Hiroshima bombs of energy per second. They imply that this added energy rains down untold destruction from pole-to-pole.....a classic recent example of this hyperbole is described by this journalist.
Amazingly, the dead-enders conveniently forget to mention the science facts, such as the Sun blasts Earth with energy that is equivalent to 1,950 Hiroshima bombs....per second. When one does the arithmetic (86,400 seconds per day times 1,950 H-bombs/second), that's approximately 169 million Hiroshima bombs of natural warming per day.
Thus, when putting hyperbole into factual context, it helps explain why anthropogenic warming might not be making any statistically-significant impression on nature. And, obviously, the over-the-top hyperbole has made little impression on Americans; not so much on Europeans either.
World Extreme Temperature Map (click on to enlarge)
For several decades now, consensus climate experts predicted that human CO2 emissions would produce extreme climate change for the world, which would be an existential threat to civilization.
Experts spoke of boiling oceans and Venus-like atmospheres caused by humans use of fossil fuels. At the heart of these soon-to-be catastrophic climate disasters was runaway and tipping point warming - hotter and hotter temperatures that kept ratcheting up.
It didn't happen, though. As the above map of extreme temperatures documents, the last 3+ decades did not produce the cascading, record-setting temperature scenario. When one connects the dots, the predictions of CO2 causing extreme climate change are without empirical evidence merit.
As this chart reveals, since 1997 global warming has essentially disappeared from all venues. That's 16 years of hibernation, which has the experts robustly befuddled. (click on chart to enlarge)
---->"The biggest mystery in climate science today may have begun, unbeknownst to anybody at the time, with a subtle weakening of the tropical trade winds blowing across the Pacific Ocean in late 1997...Average global temperatures hit a record high in 1998 — and then the warming stalled....But the pause has persisted, sparking a minor crisis of confidence in the field. Although there have been jumps and dips, average atmospheric temperatures have risen little since 1998, in seeming defiance of projections of climate models and the ever-increasing emissions of greenhouse gases."
The above plots of temperature datasets from different climate agencies/organizations clearly indicate that the feared accelerating and runaway warming predicted did not happen, ever. And, for each dataset, the December 2013 temperature anomaly was below the December 1997 anomaly - basically, one could say the globe has cooled slightly over the past 16 years.
The chart also clearly indicates that billions upon billions of human CO2 emissions have had little, if any, impact on global warming.
This empirical evidence strongly counters any claim that changes in human CO2 emissions, up or down, can be viewed as a "control knob" or "thermostat" for Earth's temperature and climate.
Those stubborn facts about global warming and climate change are not forgiving, nor kind to those who continue to deny the indisputable.
The HadCRUT4 global temperature dataset for 2013 was just published. On review of the released annual temperature averages that the UK experts calculated, the calendar year 2013 global temp was cooler than the 1998 mark.
So, during that 15 years of massive human CO2 emissions, the fearsome "runaway" warming was not so much. In fact, after the spewing of some 450 gigatons of fossil fuel emissions the temperature needle hasn't budged, it's actually lower in 2013.
The UK's findings match what other climate experts have found and are now debating the cause. This 'Pause' (aka 'The Hiatus') in global warming has even been noted in Congressional testimony as a matter of official record.
"The biggest mystery in climate science today may have begun, unbeknownst to anybody at the time, with a subtle weakening of the tropical trade winds blowing across the Pacific Ocean in late 1997...Average global temperatures hit a record high in 1998 — and then the warming stalled....But the pause has persisted, sparking a minor crisis of confidence in the field. Although there have been jumps and dips, average atmospheric temperatures have risen little since 1998, in seeming defiance of projections of climate models and the ever-increasing emissions of greenhouse gases."
Corn Belt Temperatures & Map (click on each to enlarge)
It was noted previously that the continental U.S. has been cooling over the last 16 years, at a rate of minus 3.8°F per century rate. This was not predicted by any U.S. climate scientist, nor by NOAA, nor by NASA and certainly not by the political technocrats at the UN's IPCC.
As the NOAA/NCDC climate record reveals, the breadbasket areas of American have been cooling for a longer period - 17 years. The above images reflect the empirical evidence for the primary U.S. corn growing areas., which is cooling at a minus 4.0°F/century rate.
The other major 3 crop regions all show similar type of cooling rates over the last 17 years ending 2013. (see: soybean temperatures, map; spring wheat temperatures, map; and winter wheat temperatures, map)
If this cooling trend were to continue, it would spell disaster for the world's hungry. Let's hope 'the pause' in global warming does not last much longer since it unfortunately seems to project a cooling regime over the U.S.
Recently, the climate change myth that global warming is "accelerating" has been shattered by the near-zilch warming for the last 17 years - indeed, to the point where even climate change alarmist scientists are being forced to admit that 'the pause' remains unexplained.
Another climate myth that can no longer weather the empirical storm is that human CO2 emissions have created an "unprecedented" global warming change regime. Of course, this myth completely melts when contrasted to previous climate warmings during ancient and historical periods.
Yet, it is still a widely accepted myth for periods since 1980 - that human CO2 has caused unprecedented temperature increases, far outpacing any previous 20th century warming increases. That is not true, though, per the NOAA empirical evidence of the climate record.
The above chart depicts the last 100 years of global warming increases, segmented by two 50-year periods, which handily exposes the lameness of the myth.
The column on the left shows the cumulative NOAA temperature change over 50 years, starting in 1914, including the atmospheric change in CO2 levels (black vertical bar) over that same 50 years. The column on the right represents the same information, but instead for the 50-year period starting in 1964.
One does not have to be a climate "rocket" scientist to recognize that the earlier 20th century warming increase was greater than the modern warming. And it is painfully clear, even to proponents of this myth, that the earlier warming increase took place while the CO2 level change was a fraction of that during the modern 50-year period ending in 2013.
From this actual NOAA/NCDC climate record, one can fairly surmise the following: First, modern global warming change is not accelerating, nor unprecedented. Second, that natural climate change is most likely responsible (seeNature science journal article) for the majority of warming increases experienced during the two 50-year periods, not human CO2 emissions.
Central England Temperatures (click images to enlarge)
Recent mainstream press articles, plus those on the blogosphere, indicate a growing concern for a soon-to-come global cooling period, that some are even referring to as a potential mini-ice age. This sudden turn of events is entirely counter to all the "expert" consensus and IPCC predictions that claimed runaway global warming was civilization's greatest threat.
The impetus for the new publicized fears of cooling comes from the indisputable empirical evidence that global warming is suffering a non-predicted 'hiatus' (i.e. warming is stalled, paused, stopped, etc.) these last 15+ years. Combine that pause with the additional empirical evidence of solar activity being at a minimum and major ocean oscillations being in non-warming phases and that combo spells t-r-o-u-b-l-e.
One region of the world that may already be experiencing the impacts of a global cooling phase is The Midlands of central England.
The above charts are plots of the Central England (CE) Temperature record. The left chart plots the annual dataset (light green) back to inception, 1659AD. The maroon curve is a simple 25-year average of the annual temperatures. The chart also includes a plot of a 25-year average of annual CO2 atmospheric levels.
Obviously, the CE region has had a high degree of climate temperature variability over the records 355 years, coupled with an observed warming trend generated with the rebounding from the depths of the Little Ice Age (LIA).
Starting in the early 1700s, there are signs the warning rebound was beginning, but it wasn't until the late 1800's that one can discern a strong post-LIA warming trend that ushers in the modern era. This positive spike of temperatures was well before the huge CO2 consumer/industrial emissions of the late 20th century.
Actually, using the 25-year moving average curve, one can see 3 distinct periods of recovery from the LIA. By the end of 2013, the 25-year average appears to reach its peak - the "warmest" ever.
However, by zooming in on the last 25 years since 1988 a different story is told - a climate cooling story.
The chart on the right is a plot of CE temperatures since 1988 - yes, the same year that climate scientists warned us that we were at global warming's death door. The chart's red and grey curves are 3-year averages and a linear trend line has been added (dark green).
Clearly, as this plot of modern temperatures reveals, for 25 years the CE region has had a slight cooling trend. This trend would produce an overall cooling of +0.53°C by 2100AD, if it were to monotonously continue (it won't). Adding to the consensus "expert" woes, any observed relationship between temperatures and CO2 levels is non-existent, if not a negative correlation over the last 2.5 decades.
If huge emissions of CO2 are not driving temperature increases, then the apparent cooling must be a function of more powerful forces, such as described in this latest peer-reviewed study. With that said, all empirical evidence points to the fact that climate science remains unsettled and that the CO2-centric CAGW hypothesis is essentially without clothes.
We have NASA to thank for introducing the world to climate-porn, which has become a widely accepted word of derision describing the greens' and Democrats' anti-CO2 doomsday-propaganda.
Back in 1988, NASA kicked it off with its constant disaster-laden predictions, not only in articles, but even in Congressional testimony.
NASA technocrats purposefully attempted to scare the public and policymakers with promises of skyrocketing temperatures, with Earth's atmosphere turning into Venus-like conditions and, of course, those soon-to-be boiling oceans. As the public was going to learn over the next few decades, NASA made sure no climate-porn catastrophe was left unexposed.
So after decades of NASA scare tactics what does the empirical evidence say? What about that CO2-induced accelerated warming that will cause oceans to boil?
Using the NOAA's high-resolution ocean temperature dataset, the chart above reveals the absolute non-existence of "accelerating" global warming, for all the world's oceans, and for those tropical waters that NASA predicts we will witness boiling.
Since 1988, and after gigaton upon gigaton of human CO2 emissions over the last 25 years, the ocean warming is not so much. Accelerated warming is nada. And since 1996, a year prior to the super El Nino of 1997-98, the oceans' warming trend has actually been shrinking.
In fact, the tropical oceans since 1996 are actually cooling.
Is that an indication that we should be worried about global cooling? Well, a lot of people are now thinking the unthinkable and talking about it.
The 2013 year-end update of short-term drought conditions across the contiguous U.S. has been released.
The latest NOAA empirical evidence confirms that the drought trend has improved (i.e., lesser drought conditions are better than greater) since 1950. Not reflected on this chart is that the aqua-colored trend is an actual improvement to the trend stretching back to 1895, the inception of dataset.
Why 1950 for this drought chart's trend?
The IPCC now considers the year 1950 as the marker for CO2-driven catastrophic climate change. The climate "experts" and computer models that the UN's IPCC relies on predicted that droughts would become a major issue starting in the second-half of the 20th century.
Good news...the IPCC experts were wrong, again. This NOAA chart represents the indisputable facts.
As an aside, this 1895-2013 chart also depicts how the climate is constantly changing over extended periods - going from one extreme to another. This is clear documentation of the natural climate change that occurs and what skeptics emphasize, while at the same time, anti-CO2 fanatics and global warming alarmists completely deny.
Back in 1988 (that would be 25 years ago) NASA scientists predicted that global temperatures would increase by 2 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit, within 30 years, if human CO2 fossil fuel use continued to increase by 1.5% per year.
Well....how's that expert NASA climate prediction working out for Americans?
L.O.L., big time.
During 1988 the average U.S. temperature was 52.6°F. And for 2013, 25 years later? The mean 2013 U.S. temp was 52.4°F.
Yep, you read that correctly. The 2013 temperature was below the 1988 temperature. Now, it's not quite 30 years yet, but it's obvious at the 25 year mark that the "experts" are spectacularly clueless when it comes to predicting climate and temperatures.
And what about that scary 'business-as-usual' global fossil fuel growth of 1.5% per year that the leading NASA climate scientist warned would cause temperatures to skyrocket? Ooops, annual global fossil fuel growth averaged 2.3% since 1988 through 2012 (click image below to enlarge).
Indeed, the chart at the top (click top chart to enlarge) indicates that the growth of atmospheric CO2 levels has been phenomenal since around 1950. And as the bright red trend curve depicts, U.S. temperatures have been increasing since 1895 - more so since the early 1980s to the late 1990s when U.S. temperature increases flattened, and then literally started to cool per NOAA's NCDC climate division.
Depending on which climate catastrophe du jour that "experts" were shouting, the U.S. was either going to face extreme droughts or biblical floods or both at the exact same time! Again, back to the top chart where at the bottom is the plot of U.S. precipitation since 1895.
Clearly, the huge increases in CO2 levels have not demonstrably changed long-term precipitation (see the unchanged bright green fitted trend curve). By 2100AD, maybe, just maybe, precipitation may increase by one-tenth of an inch.
One last point. The top chart shows that in any given year, the average American will experience a temperature swing of some 50 degrees, regardless of CO2 levels. Yet, Democrats and Hollywood celebrities are fixated on tiny predicted temperature warming, which recent empirical evidence, over the last 15+ years, suggests will be from hundredths of a degree increase to multiple tenths of a degree increase by 2100AD.
Are these pampered, wealthy, spoiled greens/liberals/progressive/leftist anti-CO2 fanatics overreacting, insane from imaginary climate calamity fears? Hmmm...it would seem most Americans think they are.
Since the Congressional staged testimony by NASA in the summer of 1988, anti-growth Democrats and greens have made it their primary purpose to spread climate fear-mongering.
And the liberal/left mainstream press reporters, and those renowned Hollywood (delusional?) "scientists," have gleefully cooperated by pushing non-scientific claptrap, such as CO2 emissions will turn Earth's atmosphere into Venus-like temperatures; oceans will soon be boiling; winter snow will disappear; Manhattan Island will be submerged by the seas; and let's not forget this latest Democrat Party, bizarro, anti-science, climate hysteria - women will be forced into prostitution. (My god, these people are either incredibly stupid or unrepentant pathological liars...take your pick.)
Despite Americans being punished with this continuous onslaught of climate change over-the-top fabrications and global warming lies, they're not buying the blatantly bogus B.S. As a testament to the gross failure of the Democrats' fear-based propaganda, the above 2013 Pew poll (click on to enlarge) depicts what Americans think of the priority and importance of climate change - dead last.
Now compound this massive propaganda failure by the anti-growth Democrats with this week's latest climate science news from the world's premier science journal and a leading global warming alarmist scientist: natural ocean oscillations are responsible for Earth's modern temperature changes, not human CO2.
What does all this mean in the context of politics? There is an incredible GOP opportunity to win 2014 elections.....a lot!
The green/left/liberal progressive Democrats' anti-science propaganda does not work. The global warming unicorn science they still rely on has failed all empirical validation, according to leading climate experts. American voters and their common sense understand this.
The GOP elites need to seize the day - they have been handed a huge opportunity by the Democrats that is theirs for the keeping. And the EU governments are even providing the GOP candidates with magnificent air cover.
The public during 2014 should be reminded on a daily basis that Democrats were wrong, again and again, and that the pro-growth, safe-environment Republicans were right. The actual empirical science and the polls provide a firm platform to steamroll the Democrats in November 2014.
And when you combine the climate lies with the backlash regarding the over-the-top Obamacare lies, a GOP-majority in the U.S. Senate becomes a very achievable goal.
In a simply stunning admission, a major science journal that has long propagandized the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (AGW) hypothesis has published an article that now supports the skeptics' position on CAGW.
=====>Short synopsis of skeptics' position: It's natural forces that dominate climate change, and the related global cooling/global warming of Earth, not human CO2.
Not only has this premier science journal now admitted to earthly forces being the root cause of climate change, they also admit to world temperatures stalling since 1998 - the 'stall' or 'hiatus' or 'pause' that skeptics have spoken of for the last decade.
In addition, a principal CAGW advocate-scientist, Dr. Kevin Trenberth, now admits that the hiatus is due to natural forces going back to 1998 when "Average global temperatures hit a record high...".
His previous lame excuse about the "stall" was that human CO2 was somehow hiding the "missing heat" (which has never been recorded) in the deep ocean. As the article now indicates, he and other of his 'RMS AGW-Titanic' alarmist shipmates are bailing on the anti-science of human CO2 emission causation, and are being forced to sound the alarm for general evacuation to the still-on-board faithful.
Why is this happening now? The unsinkable 'AGW-Titanic' was the design result of the IPCC's billion-dollar computer climate models, which simply ignored and/or discounted the natural forces that dominate climate, such as the PDO oscillations. Thus, these failed models were unable to explain (ie, predict) global temperatures since 1998, and the global warming prior to the late 1970s. This "scientific" embarassment has become unbearable to objectively support.
This graph from the journal's article clearly documents the PDO substantial effects on climate temperatures. Trenberth et al. are finally coming to their collective-science navigation senses - obviously, ignoring the ever present 'PDObergs' will eventually even sink the most arrogant of scientists.
A great summary of Nature's journal article about the can be found here, including hundreds of comments that are well worth the read. The original Nature article is here.
Finally, it is now readily apparent that CAGW skeptics have been correct regarding the significant impact of ocean oscillations/cycles. This confirmation is long overdue, especially for Bob Tisdale. His analysis of the oceans and their impact has been spot-on, and whose work Trenberth and his lifeboat comrades are currently and blatantly using to keep afloat, without, btw, providing any credit to Bob's huge outstanding efforts.
Source of sinking Titanic image embedded in the above graph. A cool Titanic infographic that is completely irrelevant to this article.
Since the significant global impact of the 1997-98 Super El Nino, the overall U.S. has experienced a 16-year cooling trend of -3.8°F per century.
Lengthy cooling trends are also seen at the 14, 12, 10 and 8 year marks for the continental U.S.
(Side bar: NOAA calculates the 2-year per century cooling trend at a -293°F, yet they calculate a 6-year warming trend at +26.9°F. How's this? Well, both calculations are impacted immensely by the outlier hot year of 2012. These two calculated figures represent a cautionary tale to using trends less than 10 years, and that no trend ever represents a prediction.)
The above map (click on to enlarge) depicts temperature trends for each state within the continental U.S., since the Super El Niño years - the last 16 years.
As clearly shown, the vast majority of states (77%) have experienced a long-term cooling. The huge global emissions of CO2 has not produced any global warming across a great swath of America.
A suggestion: The GOP/Republican politicians in Washington wanting to address the Democrats' climate change hysteria may want to laser focus their attentions on those states that are the warming exceptions. For these 11 states, it would be of scientific benefit to understand how they managed to be such extreme "warming" exceptions - a detailed, objective, 3rd party forensic audit of the temperature dataset for each warming state would seem to be in order, at a minimum.
Source of temperature trends. Additional regional temperature charts/maps.
If human CO2 causes indisputable, relentless, unequivocal, unprecedented, accelerating and tipping point catastrophic global warming, then why is the U.S. cooling over the last 15 years?
Indeed, the "experts" have been unable to scientifically explain why there has been a 'hiatus' or 'pause' in global warning, let alone the cooling trends experienced in various parts of the world. That doesn't mean the scientists are not speculating as hard as possible as to why - so far, they have conjured up 7 reasons they never mentioned prior to the global warming going AWOL.
When a rational, believable and testable hypothesis finally does arrive maybe it will be able to explain the decadal temperature changes the U.S. has experienced since 1895.
The above chart plots the NOAA/NCDC U.S. dataset decade-end temperature changes, including the change over the 10-year period ending 2013. Stating the perfectly obvious, the infamous consensus experts' "unequivocal" warming is anything but. In spite of massive human CO2 emissions, a recent state of cooling changes dominate in the U.S. (see last two blue columns).
Another interesting point that the chart reveals is that the largest decadal temperature increase did not occur during the modern late 20th century, or 21st century for that matter. The biggest increase took place during the decade of the 1930s.
The chart also has a plot of new human CO2 emissions for each decade. For example, the decades ending 1999 and 2009 had new emission totals of 234 billion tons and 286 billion tons, respectively. (Note: The early decades were estimated using CO2 information from here; for years 1965 and later, CO2 emissions are from this source.)
Unfortunately for the climate science consensus experts, this latest release of NOAA temperature data confirms that they are essentially clueless when it comes to predicting regional and global temperature changes. Likewise, it also confirms that one of the scientists' favorite concepts - that human CO2 emissions are similar to a world "control knob" or thermostat for climate temperatures - is simply idiotic, not even plausible.
Finally, this additional empirical evidence firms up the growing belief that the CO2-centric AGW hypothesis is an anachronism, now deserving to be placed on the ash heap of failed pop-culture science. Maybe it will still fly on cable's Discovery Channel but in the realm of hard-truth scientific endeavors it's a failed religion.
Latest NOAA temperature measurements for the U.S. have been published. This major climate agency confirms what Americans have known for the last decade: GLOBAL WARMING IS DEAD! GLOBAL COOLING LIVES! -- well, at least in the continental U.S.
2013 now ranks as the 6th coldest year in the U.S. since 1990. Over the last 15 16 years, the American populace has been a reluctant spectator to a per century cooling trend of minus 3.8°F. Ugh.
In summary, the "accelerating," "unequivocal" and "unprecedented" global warming hysteria of anti-growth greens and Obama-leftists takes another natural climate dagger in the back.
Update Note: A reader informed me of a typo. In producing this chart map, the 16-year trend from that was used in the above headline and text body as the 15-year trend. My bad. Correct 15-year cooling trend for continental U.S. is minus 2.1°F per century. The correct 16-year cooling trend is minus 3.8°F per century.
The 2013 climate reality has been a harsh mistress to those cult doomsday scientists and proponents who constantly embarrass themselves by denying the actual climate evidence.
While this latest "global warming" PR nightmare exposes the absurdity of the doomsday cult science, the new IPCC climate report ('AR5') continues to promulgate the doomsday, anti-science scenarios for the news media. Yet, this latest report has quietly moderated the long IPCC tradition of climate reality denial.
Analyzing the IPCC's latest publication details found deep inside the the AR5 report (which the mainstream media always fails to read), the IPCC has been forced to lower their global warming temperature predictions "projections."
Essentially, the IPCC's long denial of non-catastrophic warming has been mugged by climate change reality.
The above chart (click to enlarge) depicts the robust and significant lowering of the IPCC's predictions regarding human CO2-induced global warming. Despite being forced to drop their medium assessment down to a a rather low +1.7°C per century trend, the actual empirical evidence, from both the land/sea surface and satellite atmospheric observations, indicates that the IPCC will again be forced in the future to lower their predictions projections even further.
Due to the climate reality of observed per century trends, ranging from 0.0 to +1.1°C, the next ratchet down by the IPCC may be in the 1.25°C per century realm.
Unfortunately, for many years the IPCC has successfully practiced climate reality denial, with the gleeful support of mainstream science "journalists" who just love their climate disaster porn. No longer, though, it would seem.
The climate change realists are now forcing objective scientific analysis on both the climate-doomsday, anti-CO2 cultists and the big government funded scientists who promote that fringe anti-science agenda. It's a welcome change - the global audience is finally learning the truth about the real climate change and the actual lackluster global warming.
The IPCC's catastrophic AGW (CAGW) hypothesis is based on the prediction that human CO2 emissions would produce a "hotspot" in the atmosphere above the tropics. This hotspot was identified by the IPCC as the penultimate evidence that global warming was accelerating, causing a "tipping point" cascade of catastrophic events.
The projected hotspot over the tropics was expected to stretch from the 5km mark to as high as 15km, with the hottest portion being from 8-12km. The temperatures in this specific area were supposed to rise 1.2 to 1.5 times faster than surface temperatures, due to positive feedback loop produced by the CO2-induced warming.
Big problem though. As this chart of the lower troposphere (over the tropic latitudes) documents, NASA satellites are unable to locate this mysterious, runaway "hotspot" (AGW "signature" and/or "fingerprint") that the IPCC and global warming alarmists have long predicted. This despite NASA satellites having 100% coverage over the entire tropical troposphere, including the critical water vapor areas of the lower and mid-troposphere.
In fact, this specific area of the troposphere has only warmed a fraction of the IPCC's predictions, turning the "hotspot" into the embarrassing "AWOLspot." Additionally, this means that the feared AGW positive feedback loop went kaput, or it never really existed, except in the "consensus" hive mind of the alarmist-science collective.
Additional chart info: the red-dotted curve is a basic 36-month moving average; the green curve is 6th order fitted trend of monthly measurements; and the grey area represents the cumulative per cent growth of atmospheric CO2 levels. (Since satellite monitoring of atmospheric temperatures began, the cumulative growth of CO2 ppm levels has been over 18%.)
Per this satellite empirical evidence, the existing linear temperature trend of the low-troposphere tropic latitudes is ludicrously small, indicating that 2100AD temperatures may only increase by +0.6°C (necessary warning: trends are not predictions, don't go there). For the mid-troposphere tropics, the trend is even lower, +0.3°C. Compare those low trend rates with the modest warming trend of the entire atmosphere: +1.2°C by 2100AD.
And the comparison to the surface temps? NASA/GISS has a linear trend for the same time period projecting an outcome of +1.3°C by 2100AD.
Yep, you read that correctly. The tropical hotspot trends are lower than the global atmospheric trend and the global surface trend - a magnificent and spectacular fail of IPCC climate "science."
The simple, indisputable, scientific summary after 35 years of empirical evidence: The tropical, runaway hotspot did not happen in spite of massive amounts of CO2 emissions released into the atmosphere; ergo, the IPCC was wrong, again; the billion-dollar climate model predictions were wrong, again; alarmist, agenda-driven scientists' claims of climate doomsday were wrong, again; and, the fanatical anti-CO2 green lobby was wrong, as always.
Note: Links to datasets used in Excel to create chart: UAH satellite & NOAA CO2. Don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy. Go here to learn how.
The RSS global temperature dataset for end of 2013 has just been released.
These satellite measurements of atmosphere temperatures not only confirm that "runaway" and/or "tipping point" global warming is not happening, they also confirm that the NASA "expert" predictions of Venus-like warming that causes "boiling" oceans was, at best, a wild, lunatic, fringe prediction. In other words, pure climate-porn fantasy without any earthly scientific merit, nor any empirical evidence .
The adjacent chart depicts all monthly satellite measurements prior to the super El Niño of 1997/1998 and those measurements subsequent to that dramatic climate event. In addition, the grey columns represent the estimated CO2 emission tonnage for the respective periods. (click on chart to enlarge)
Despite massive amounts of CO2 emissions since the super El Niño event, the atmospheric temperature change has been a paltry +0.1°C per century trend - essentially, global warming has been non-existent.
In contrast, the period prior the super El Niño was only warming at a barely tepid +0.7°C per century trend. Note that while this warming trend is 7 times greater than that of the post period, human CO2 emission were 40 billion tons less - the fallacy of CO2 being a global temperature thermostat control knob is clearly documented.
The chart's red curves are moving 36-month averages for the two distinct periods leading up to, and subsequent to, the 1997/1998 event. The aqua dashed lines are simple anomaly averages. Obviously, over the last 174 months (14.5 years) the moving average temperature reveals the reality of non-accelerating global warming.
Finally, the December 2013 satellite measurement was only +0.16°C, which is lower than the +0.20°C measurement observed for January 1981. That means, in contrast to all the consensus "expert" predictions, one could surmise that global atmospheric temperatures have not really budged in over 32 years.
Conclusion: Venus-like warming of Earth's atmosphere, due to human CO2 emissions, has not happened and is highly unlikely to happen (unless, of course, there is some type of unique solar/cosmic incident that produces excess warming).
Note: Download datasets used to create chart in Excel. Don't know how to chart in Excel? It's easy. Go here to learn how.
Democrats, liberals, progressives, lefties and greens truly believe that they and government bureaucrats know best how to control the energy sector and the world's climate. As the below headlines make abundantly clear though, their plans and policies of über government control can't even work in the less complex health care market.
The IPCC's climate science has long claimed that human CO2 emissions are producing an accelerated global warming, with a "runaway" warming trend, which is then being amplified in the north and south polar extremes. This dangerous warming is, of course, causing the ice sheets to melt, unleashing catastrophic sea level rise, and thus swamping coastal regions and low-lying islands, as we speak!
Hmmm.....despite over 845 billion tons of human CO2 emissions being added to the biosphere since 1978, that predicted dangerous warming, and associated catastrophes, have yet to materialize.
A BIG-TIME FAIL, no? As many are now saying, a rather robust and very significant embarrassment for all of the "consensus" involved: including the IPCC, the United Nations' science "experts," the governing elites and bureaucrats.
This huge fail is amplified because the South Pole region that includes Antarctica has done the opposite - literally a cooling temperature trend over the last 35 years.
NASA's satellites have now been measuring global temperatures for a full 35 years (420 months through November 2013), including the Antarctic. The above chart documents the measured southern polar region temperatures.
As can be seen, there has been a cooling trend - granted, a very tiny -0.04°C/century, but it remains far removed from the IPCC's unicorn science of "amplified" and dangerous polar warming.
And not only has it not warmed, the Antarctic sea ice has grown to a record amount.
Well, you might now be wondering if that imminent, catastrophic Antarctica ice sheets melting and collapse are still imminent...as predicted. Nope. Eating a huge amount of that cooling crow, the IPCC has recently labeled that outcome as "extremely unlikely".....Ooops!!
In summary, those stubborn facts that are the archenemy of climate change alarmists are without mercy - after 35 years of high tech measurements, the South Pole region has nada, zilch, goose egg, naught, aught, nil, nix, nothing, null, zero, zip and zippo warming. Nuff said.
Let's start with a couple of known-knowns: 1st, Hollywood is in the business of make-believe and fantasies; 2nd, Jessica Alba is definitely a drop-dead, freaking gorgeous Hollywood actress.
Of course, Jessica might be very pleasing to the eye, as many actresses and actors are, but inherited beauty genetics does not mean one will necessarily have a high IQ (or even impressive acting abilities).
Democrats, liberals, progressives, lefties and greens truly believe that they and government bureaucrats know best how to control the energy sector and the world's climate. As the below headlines make abundantly clear though, their plans and policies of über government control can't even work in the less complex health care market.
A new peer reviewed study based on an analysis of megafossil tree remains documents the indisputable conclusion: it was warmer during both the Roman and Medieval periods - ergo, extreme climate change can happen without human involvement.
The above plots (click each plot to enlarge) of ancient tree lines from previous research provides ample evidence that indeed climates were warmer prior to human CO2 emissions. This new research examines 455 radiocarbon-dated mega-fossils from Scandinavian region.
that mega-fossil analysis is the only methodology that can "accurately document the existence of a certain tree species at a certain spot and at a certain point of time in the past."
indicates that "summer temperatures during the early Holocene thermal optimum may have been 2.3°C higher than present,"
that "the pine tree line was about 100 m higher than today (i.e., early 21st century) c. 1940 and 1300-930 cal. years BP," while noting that "the same applies to birch by c. 1700 and 1300 cal years BP," which clusters "represent the Medieval and Roman times."
that "these temperature anomalies were succeeded by a distinct tree line/temperature dip, broadly corresponding to the Little Ice Age."
that "the emergence during the past two millennia of at least two short-term tree line and thermal excursions to higher than present levels (i.e. early 21st century) indicates that the current performance of the ecological and climatic systems is well within the envelope of the natural variability
that "the pine tree line (and summer temperature) was consistently higher than present ... during the Roman and Medieval periods, c. 1900 and 1000 cal years BP."
Note: Doing a search of the internet did not result in finding a definition for 'megafossil' yet a definition for 'microfossil' was readily available. For purposes of this posting, megafossil refers to fossilized material that can be viewed with the naked eye.
In this recent article, Bob Tisdale deconstructs the irrational and anti-science claims of a new global warming study produced by a couple of prominent climate reality deniers.
Parsing through Tisdale's analysis makes it clear that alarmists remain grasping at straws, while cherry-picking evidence that is easily refuted with updated empirical measurements.
As part of his analysis, he shows the adjacent chart comparing the state-of-the-art IPCC climate models versus climate reality. As observed, the computer simulations are not up to the task of accurately predicting global temperatures, whether being in the past or modern eras.
Essentially, as Tisdale notes, the CO2-centric models are failed prediction tools and actually contradict the hypothesis that human CO2 emissions are a major factor in the modern era's past global warming, which, btw, stalled more than a decade ago.
Simply put, the IPCC's climate models and experts are unable to predict cloud formation and coverage, which makes accurately predicting climate conditions an impossible task.
As a result, the models have huge problems with predicting actual polar sea ice coverage and albedo characteristics - a continuing major fail that shreds the IPCC's creditability as a reliable source for climate fearmongering prognostications.
This latest study confirms that the state-of-the-art climate models have proven to be no better at predicting Arctic clouds and sea ice than their grossly inaccurate predecessors.
And as these plots (source) of polar sea ice indicate, the global sea ice area and extent exhibit an increasing trend that is the polar opposite of the IPCC's those fabled "expert" predictions.(bad pun intended)
It is now an indisputable fact that the IPCC's "dangerous", "accelerating" and "tipping point" global warming has gone completely AWOL. This has been well documented empirically, as this temperature chart through October 2013 reveals.
Does this now mean global warming is kaput, in permanent hibernation? Nope.
But it does mean that the IPCC's climate scientists were wrong about future global warming, and that the consensus is now changing due to actual climate reality.
Serious discussions about global cooling have become the reality, much to the chagrin of climate "experts" and IPCC cohorts who have wasted multi-billions on the global warming hysteria.
The scientific pivot to cooling confirms what many have thought and said over the last few decades: human CO2 emissions do have a warming influence on global temperatures but, with that said, it is a minor factor that is easily overwhelmed by both solar/cosmic and natural earthly forces. Apparently, the CO2 impact is so weak it is unable to stop this unexpected (by the IPCC) cooling momentum that could wreak havoc on agriculture and economies.
The adjacent plot (click on chart to enlarge) of global HadCRUT October temperature anomalies from two different periods clearly documents the minor impact of human CO2 emissions.
The IPCC claims that since 1950 global temperatures have been driven by the massive human CO2 emissions. Yet when one examines the October temperature records, it is found that the last 64 years of global warming (1950-2013) is very similar to the global warming pattern for the 64-year period ending in 1949.
The chart's two ten-year moving average curves for the respective periods indicate a similarity that is striking, especially considering that modern human CO2 emissions are many multiples larger than the pre-1950 emissions. Adding to that similarity is the fact that the linear trends for October temperatures are almost the same - only an 18/100ths difference if both trends were extended out the 87 years to October 2100AD.
Indeed, a portion of that small linear trend difference might be due to human CO2 emissions; or, then again, it might be due to the vast urbanization effect over the last 60+ years; or due to the large deforestation that's taken place; or, maybe it's entirely due to the serial fabrication of global warming by the world's climate agencies; or it's even possible that the post-1950 warming was entirely a natural phenomenon - the same as the prior 64-year period experience.
Climate reality and the IPCC's predictions often wildly diverge. The well understood reason for this divergence is simply a result of the UN's political agenda, pushed aggressively by its bureaucrats and sponsored "scientists".
An example of its agenda science is shown in the adjacent plot of actual sea level rise versus 2100AD predictions. (click plot to enlarge)
At the bottom of the chart is the plot of actual sea level rise calculated by Colorado University using satellite measurements. Per this empirical evidence, the sea level trend since 1992 suggest that oceans will rise some 11 inches by 2100AD.
An 11" rise by century-end is definitely not a catastrophe and certainly an outcome that humans can adapt to/cope with. And clearly, it represents a 2100AD level substantially below the IPCC's predicted 24" rise.
The IPCC's prediction not only does not comport with climate reality, other expert research indicates that sea level rise by 2100AD will amount to only a 4-6" increase. Two recent studies, one by NOAA and another by China's experts, represent 'those stubborn facts' that are continually undermining the IPCC prediction fantasies.
When assessing future climate forecasts, it's best to remember that the IPCC's "scientific" reports are climate exaggerations produced by their mandated UN political agenda. Climate science reality is an entirely different animal, though.
As widely documented and reported, global warming has disappeared over the last 15+ years.
While there is no longer any doubt about the lack of global warming, there continue to be attempts by global warming alarmists to prove regional warming in the Arctic continues. Essentially, their attempts are solely based on fabricated guesstimates of Arctic temps with further "enhancement" via suspect statistical techniques.
But as this new, legit scientific study confirms, an analysis of temperature observations establishes that the Arctic climate is no longer warming, and may actually be in a cooling phase since 1998.
The abysmal failure of climate models as tools to predict future climate is well documented.
The vast, multi-billion expenditure on tools that can't accurately predict may indeed further needed climate research, but as for model outputs being a sound foundation for policymakers, they're worthless.
This new study confirms that conclusion. Since policymakers need to thoughtfully plan for changes in future precipitation levels, this peer reviewed research makes it clear computer simulations are inappropriate and misleading tools to base policy on.