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Global Warming Causes Headaches? But NOAA Evidence Indicates Zero Warming For 10+ Years

Another study with a bogus claim about CO2-caused global warming is debunked, by NOAA empirical evidence.

On average, for the multiple regions of the world that NOAA tracks and reports temperature changes for, there has been no global warming for 10.5 years (see second image - i.e. table).

Excluding the extended 35 years of no global warming in Antarctica, the average for the rest of the regional areas drops to 9.1 years.

From each region's pause 'Start Date, the table includes the correlation and r-squared between the region's temperature anomalies and NOAA's CO2 atmospheric CO2 levels.

(click on to enlarge)

The correlation derived r-squared(s) between CO2 and temperature anomalies is essentially ZILCH, across the board.

Unfortunately, like most "scientists" who attempt to blame global warming for something they identified as a problem, it seems they never do the requisite research to confirm that global warming is actually taking place.

Rest assured, your headaches are not from global warming.

Notes: Source of temperature anomalies & CO2 ppm data. Excel used for calculations and plotting.

Per NOAA's Climate Science: Antarctic's Cooling Trend Stretches From April 1988 Through April 2023

One of the very important climate temperature trends that NOAA omits from their never-ending, alarmist climate change PR is the fact that the Antarctic's warming has been at a standstill (numerically, a slight cooling trend) since early 1988.

(click on to enlarge)

That standstill spans 35+ years, despite the large growth of atmospheric CO2 levels during that period. And during that span, the correlation between Antarctic's temperature and atmospheric CO2 levels is actually negative (-0.00152), resulting in a r^2 of a ludicrously low 0.000002.

This outcome is entirely contrary to the "global" warming hypothesis that increasing CO2 will cause temperatures to rise, especially at the polar regions.

Because of their cultish belief in the hypothesis narrative, no "consensus" government-funded scientists predicted that the Antarctic would literally not have warmed during an extended period of high human CO2 emissions.

Additional regional and global charts. Additional failed predictions.

Notes: Antarctic temperature anomalies source; atmosphere CO2 levels source. Excel used to calculate trends, correlation, r^2 and to plot data.

Both U.S. Maximum & Average Temperatures On Slight Cooling Trend Since 2011

Is the world 'HOT' and 'BURNING UP' from human CO2 emissions that "cause" global warming?

Well, the U.S. climate didn't get the memo. Average and maximum surface temperature trends recorded by NOAA's USCRN, the world's state-of-the-art climate measurement system, reveal that both have bucked the global warming trend since the spring of 2011.

And both the max and avg April 2023 temperature anomalies are lower than what USCRN recorded in April 2005. (The USCRN system came online in January 2005.)

Does anyone (other than the MSM news) still believe the politicians and climate scientists shouting that climate doomsday is just around the corner?

For the record, NOAA reports that the globe has been on a cooling trend ('pause', if you prefer) since 2015.

(click on to enlarge)

The Real Climate Science Crisis: The Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW) Hypothesis Is Without Scientific Evidence

For a hypothesis to reach the status of being a legit theory, it requires withstanding the onslaught of observed empirical evidence. The CAGW hypothesis is no such animal.

Known by its more contemporary aliases, such as ''climate crisis," "climate emergency," "climate collapse," or "existential threat," the CAGW has zero empirical evidence to support it.

Unlike the related hypothesis regarding greenhouse gases (GHG) and global warming, at least the GHG hypothesis has warming global temperature data that somewhat coincides with increasing atmospheric CO2 levels, putting aside the growing possibility that the purported cause-and-effect direction is probably the reverse.

In order to reach a CAGW climate disaster, global warming temperatures must change rapidly in an accelerating manner that will initiate a 'tipping point' for the climate.

The rapid acceleration would present its occurrence in a continuous increasing of the slope, i.e., trend, of temperatures, such as monthly temperatures. Each subsequent month would represent a greater temperature magnitude increase than the month before, hypothetically.

(click on to enlarge)

But those tipping point precursors are not occurring in the real-world climate.

For example, it is agreed by all climate scientists that oceans play a very major role in the world's climate and its global temperatures due to their being both the world's largest carbon sink and its largest heat content storage.

However, despite these characteristics, in totality, the global oceans HAVE NOT warmed since the year 2014. And certainly, there is no empirical evidence that oceans exhibit constant temperature increases of magnitude.

Quite the contrary, combined oceans exhibit a regular pattern of temperature decreases and increases, as the adjacent plot of NOAA's monthly ocean data indicates.

Specifically, this is a plot (dark blue) of moving 5-year temperature changes ending each month of the 60-year period from March 1963 through March 2023.

[Explanation: the first data point is the temperature change for the 60 months ending on March 30, 1963; and the chart's last temperature change data point is for the five 5 years (i.e. 60 months) ending on March 2023.]

The chart also includes a plot (green) of the moving 60-month CO2 level changes over the same sixty year period, plus a linear trend for both CO2 changes and ocean temperature changes.

The trend of the 60-month CO2 changes significantly exceeds the slight positive trend of ocean temperature changes by a factor of 117x. This huge differential undercuts the belief that global warming is primarily the result of GHGs. Which is confirmed by the paltry R^2 of +0.06 - an almost non-existent relationship between 5-year atmospheric CO2 changes and 5-year changes in ocean temperature.

Not only are the large increases in CO2 levels not causing a concerning uptick of temperature change magnitude, it also has not lead to any type of acceleration, per the linear trend since 1963.

Specifically, with a trend of a tiny +0.0001°C, that would project out 20 years to be an increase of 5-year temperature changes to an insignificant amount of +0.024 - definitely not an existential threat of 'runaway warming' or a CAGW 'climate crisis' as portrayed by bureaucrats, politicians and Hollywood celebrities.

So, if 5 years of increasing amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere barely influence 5-year changes in temperature over a 60-year span, either in magnitude or acceleration rate, then it is highly unlikely that this trace gas would cause a catastrophic climate disaster or an extinction event.

Thus, it is fair to state that for all those scientists pushing a narrative of an imminent climate change catastrophe from CO2 without the requisite empirical evidence, this has become the real climate science crisis facing society.

Additional global and regional temperature charts.

Notes: Temperature and CO2 data sources.Excel used to calculate 60-mth (5-yr) temperature and CO2 changes; used to calculate the respective trends; used to calculate correlation and r-squared; used to plot the chart.

Lack of U.S. Climate Warming Now Extends Beyond 9 Years

Contradicting the narrative: Below is a chart that the legacy mainstream media will not be reporting on and the crony "green" politicians will simply ignore.

Per NOAA, U.S. temperatures have been on a slight cooling trend since February 2014.

Despite atmospheric CO2 levels increasing 5.2% (≈+22.0 ppm) during that time, there has been no overall U.S. warming over the last 9 years and 2 months.

The global doomsday existential threat that many politicians and reporters claim to be taking place is somehow conveniently avoiding the nation with the world's best climate reporting system. Go figure.

Source of USCRN temperature data and CO2. Excel used to calculate and plot trends.

NOAA: U.S. Historical Droughts 1895-2022

Contrary to current climate crisis narrative, the U.S. suffered worse droughts in the past.

1934 U.S. drought conditions: In May 1934 peaked at 44% of land under severe drought conditions.

2022 U.S. drought conditions: In July 2022 peaked at 21% of land under severe drought conditions.

NOAA source for drought charts.

Additional severe weather charts.

Non-Existent Climate "Control Knob": Global Warming & CO2 Levels

The CO2 "control knob" for global warming is a mythical concept without empirical merit.

Note: NOAA temperature anomalies source; NOAA CO2 source; Excel used to plot datasets, calculate trend and r-squared.

Additional global; regional; and historical temperature charts.

Stuck On Stupid & Insanity At Davos: 600k Hiroshima Bombs/Day From Fossil Fuels Cause Oceans To Boil

The annual Davos' WEF confab of elites has a history of off-the-wall to sheer lunacy about the supposed catastrophic climate change crisis.

And Al Gore wins the WEF 2023 lunacy gold for his claim that humanity produces 600k of Hiroshima-sized atomic atmospheric warming explosions on a DAILY basis, thus the "oceans are boiling," according to the former VP. (Watch him here.)

But as it always seems to be the case, the empirical evidence does not match up even a smidgen with the fantastical catastrophe claims made by doomsday elites. In fact, the oceans have been ever so slightly cooling over the past 8-9 years despite the billions of CO2 tonnes emitted from human fossil fuel combustion.

The below first chart plots the temperature anomalies for the tropical oceans surrounding Hawaii, as reported by NOAA for year-end 2022; the second NOAA chart is for the Gulf of Mexico; and the third NOAA chart is for all oceans.

To put Gore's lunacy in perspective, sea waters would boil at around 105°C. The hottest that Gulf of Mexico and Hawaiian sea waters reach in a given year ranges from 26-28°C, and the highest the global ocean average ranges from 17-18°C. The oceans are not boiling from CO2 emissions and will never do so.

Note: NOAA temperature anomalies source; Excel used to plot the anomalies and calculate the trends. For the record, former NASA climate "expert" James Hansen made similar "boiling ocean" comments but it proved to be so embarrassing to the climate science community that YouTube deleted it. But you can still watch it here.

Additional global; regional; and historical temperature charts.

Climate Change Exists. Listen To The Science. Don't Be A Denier. Trust The Experts: Facts Matter

Climate change is a happening across the globe. But often in unexpected ways, per the below indisputable empirical evidence - i.e. facts matter - from experts. Eight years and counting.

And since we are speaking of climate change that is constantly taking place, all of the above could switch back to warming in a very short period, or NOT. 

By the way, which top climate expert predicted the above 8 years ago?

Global Cooling: An Inconvenient Truth

Per the IPCC's own gold-standard for temperature measurements, the globe has been cooling since August 2014. The world's tropical oceans are cooling since September 2012 (also confirmed by the UAH satellite dataset).

Regardless of the actual scientific empirical evidence, legacy media, politicians and corrupted science will continue to claim that the world is warming at a rapid pace due to human CO2 emissions.

Joe Biden & The Doomsday Democrats: Anti-Fossil Fuel Extremists Who Ignore NOAA's Real World Climate Evidence

Rarely does a day pass without the Biden administration or some Congressional Democrat spewing scientific nonsense about our supposedly current global warming "existential" threat from fossil fuel CO2 emissions. But the latest empirical evidence and research does not support the Democrat doomsday narrative.

Way back in January 2005, the empirical evidence started rolling in from NOAA's USCRN project - the U.S. state-of-the-art climate reporting system - designed with the sole purpose of identifying climate change signals. The good news is that this land-based system has the best monthly temperature observations versus any other system currently used across the globe.

However, the bad news for the disaster-porn press and Democrats is that NOAA's USCRN datasets show no doomsday signal. This NOAA chart from January 2005 through August 2022 clearly reveals that there is no signal of any global warming existential threat that Democrats keep yammering about as a "clear & present" danger to Americans.

By using the USCRN's own data, one can measure and plot the rolling 60-month temperature changes to determine if CO2 emissions are causing monthly temperature changes to increase, which would fit the Democrats' narrative.

Instead, the scientific empirical evidence reveals that the rolling 60-month temperature changes are actually declining, not increasing as experts want the public to believe.

In addition, by using NOAA's monthly atmospheric CO2 readings, it provides undeniable proof that the correlation between the 60-month temperature changes and the 60-month rolling averages of atmospheric CO2 levels is highly suspect, bordering on non-existent. (In fact, there is a negative correlation between the two resulting in a R² of 0.002.)

Besides the increasing temperature changes claimed by Democrat "experts", they claim that temperatures are rapidly accelerating higher, thus supposedly proving their existential threat beliefs. Instead - yet again - the USCRN empirical evidence of temperature trends counter that cult-like belief. 

In an examination of rolling 60-month temperature trends on the below chart, it is critically non-ambiguous that temperature trends change constantly in both amount and direction over time; and, categorically proves there is no established current positive correlation with the ever-increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. (Again, the R² between the two variables is ludicrously tiny.)

And the trend (red linear line) of the of the rolling 60-Mth trends confirms the direct opposite of what Joe Biden and the Democrats say and what the MSM reports. If fossil fuel CO2 emissions actually had the impact on global temperatures as claimed, the trend would be significantly upward sloping.

The following chart depicts the actual cooling trend that the U.S. has experienced since April 2014 - 8+ years. And the cooling trend is not just the U.S. Both NOAA's global temperature dataset and its ocean dataset are in cooling trends over the same time period. In addition, both major satellite (RSS and UAH) climate measurement systems report global lower atmospheric cooling trends since 2014.

Yet, Biden's Democrats, the MSM press, and the bought agenda "scientists" ignore all of the above unmistakable, scientific evidence that refutes their CO2 global warming doomsday narrative.

Additional regional and global temp charts.

Notes: The cooling trends noted (or extended 'pause' if one prefers) are not climate significant other than in the context that politicians mislead the public by conveniently ignoring the real world evidence and saying the opposite is true. The top chart is sourced from NOAA's national temperature web site, which is also the source for all the monthly temperature data used in the remaining charts above. Monthly CO2 data sourced from this NOAA site. Excel was used to plot the data; to calculate the correlations, rolling trends, averages, and the linear trends. The top chart of monthly USCRN temperature anomalies has an R2 of 0.03 in regards to the monthly atmospheric CO2 ppm levels.

Democrats' New Climate & Green Energy Legislation Has Zilch Impact On Climate Change, Per The UN's Science

Biden and the Democrats' newest legislation is chockful of handouts for their green energy cronies donors that will have a "significant" impact on global warming, or so say the Democrats.

But when this legislation is analyzed by experts, using the UN's own climate models, the CO2 emission reductions will only - in a best case scenario - reduce total global temperatures an immeasurable 0.0002°C by the year 2100 (77 years from now); and, the more likely worst case scenario will reduce global temps by a ludicrously small amount - 0.000006°C.

This column chart plots these expected temperature reductions on a per year basis versus actual per year temperature changes for recent periods, including the per year change over the last 77 years.

And for even all the politicians who refuse to do the due diligence of analyzing their own legislation - and instead rely on bogus claims from lobbyists - it should be wildly obvious that their giveaways of taxpayer monies for "green" energy efforts will do zilch for the climate.

Unfortunately, this gigantic flush of $400 billion in taxpayer monies for such a miniscule real return on climate change is only the beginning for the Democrat climate cult.

This article points out that the crazies need at least 1,200,000,000,000,000 in taxpayer dollars or ONE QUADRILLION TWO HUNDRED TRILLION DOLLARS in order to be on a very speculative path to their utopian climate. That amount is 13 times larger than the entire global GDP.

Crazy Democrat climate-cultists, anyone?

Additional global and regional charts.

Since Oct 2014 Humans Emit 230+ Billion Tonnes of CO2 Emissions But Atmosphere Temps Do Not Increase

Per the 'consensus' climate model science - and its faithful apostles - a gigantic CO2 emission plume produced by civilization is supposed to increase global temperatures, especially in the lower atmosphere.

But quite the opposite has happened over the past 7 years and 9 months when some 230 billion CO2 tonnes were expelled from fossil fuel combustion.

More specifically, the global lower troposphere has been in a very slight cooling trend since October 2014; and the atmosphere over the tropics for about a year longer.

Using a combination average of the two primary (RSS and UAH) satellite global measurement datasets, the below plot shows the declining trend in temperatures in contrast to the growth of atmospheric CO2 levels reported by NOAA. (The R² of the temp anomalies and CO2 ppm levels doesn't exceed +0.01, indicating that CO2 has had little, if any, influence on recent global warming/cooling.)

 

 

Utilizing the same combined average dataset, the moving 5-year changes in temperature anomalies can be calculated, as well as the 5-year changes in NOAA's dataset of CO2 levels. The below chart very clearly shows a distinct declining trend of the 5-year temperature changes while the trend of the 5-year changes in CO2 levels is increasing. (The R² for the 5-year changes is not a very robust +0.20.)

 

 

Finally, the next chart plots for both the temperature anomalies and CO2 levels the moving 5-year trends. Essentially, the temperature plot exhibits a trend that continues to decline over the vast majority of months since 2014. And it's very obvious the moving 5-year CO2 trend over the 7 years, 9 month span is absolutely not driving the temp trend. (The R² between the two is a measly +0.05.)

 

 

None of the above tells us that the current global cooling will continue. Like anything else with the global climate, this current state has a high likelihood of changing - that's a given.

But the above does tell us that the globe and civilization are not on some out-of-control freight train headed towards the cliff of an imminent system-wide doomsday meltdown. Not-Going-To-Happen would be a safe bet without one having to cross their fingers.

Conclusion: Politicians/bureaucrats who state there is an imminent existential threat from CO2 induced global warming and climate change are best thought of as flat-out liars, based on the actual scientific climate data.

Note: Source for RSS and UAH temperature data; source for NOAA CO2 data. Excel used to calculate combine RSS/UAH monthly temp anomalies average, trends; and used to plot the data.

Additional global temperature charts.

Those Stubborn Facts: Per NOAA, Global Cooling Since 2014 Refutes Politicians' Cult Of The 'CO2 Control Knob'

As Joe Biden considers a ludicrous "national climate emergency" and the hysterical climate-porn doomers are getting even more hysterical about a summer heat wave, the most recent NOAA climate data show the world cooling since the end of December 2014 (NOAA's temperature anomalies chart).

(click on to enlarge)

If Joe Biden and Democrats think they can control heat waves by reducing CO2 emissions, they might first check the actual empirical evidence as to the possible efficacy of that.

For example, the correlation of global temperature anomalies and atmospheric CO2 levels is a negative 0.20 (yes, a -0.20 correlation) over the 90 months since December 2014. 

Essentially, per NOAA science, imbecilic politicians need to finally realize there is no magical CO2 control knob that bureaucrats can twist and turn to produce desired short and intermediate-term climate and temperature results. Seasonal weather outcomes are NOT controlled by CO2.  

Note: More specifically, regarding the current cooling trend, it actually started in April 2014 per NOAA's global (land & ocean) monthly dataset.

Additional modern and regional temperature charts.

U.S. Govt Debunks Biden & AOC's Disinformation Claims of The Global Warming Existential Threat

NOAA's updated global oceans temperature dataset through June 2022 reveals slight cooling (ZERO warming) since the end of 2013 for the world's oceans.

 

(click on to enlarge)

Democrats' assault-policies on fossil fuels by hyperbolic lies and disinformation propaganda are without any empirical evidence merit.

Principal Democrat climate disinformation propagandists: Joe Biden and Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (AOC).

Note: NOAA ocean temperature dataset

 

The RCP8.5 Global Warming Scenario Versus Actual Cooling: Climate Model Misinformation That Duped Biden & Other Elites

In a prior article, information was provided confirming that the young Democrat Congressperson, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, should not be in the climate-doomsday prediction business.

Unfortunately, she is not alone in her uncritical acceptance of a cult-like claim that the world will end soon, due to 'devastating' global warming from human CO2 emissions. This cult includes Joe Biden, along with most of the globe's left-wing power brokers, the wealthy elites, celebrities and partisan journalists.   

Biden et al share the same necessary traits that produces a gullibility for cultish doomsday stories: namely, the total disdain of actual empirical evidence in combination with an extraordinary blind faith in the elites' experts - aka, the expertocracy.

And just like the experts' recent infamously wrong Covid infection/lockdown models, the climate expertocracy loves their own climate models, despite the models' continuous failure to predict global temperatures accurately.

Case in point, the climate RCP8.5 scenario pathway was generated by computer models (specifically, the CMIP5 model) that the expertocracy relies on for their climate-porn fearmongering.

The climate-porn takes many forms in their scary stories of highly speculative climate change impacts, with the end result always being that any global warming is an existential threat to all species, including humanity.

This absurdly wrong but highly favored scenario for global warming is plotted in the accompanying chart. Note the RCP8.5 model's linear trend versus reality, the HadCrut5.0 gold-standard of actual global temperature observations.

While the RCP8.5 scenario predicts nothing but an accelerating warming trend for the 21st century, the HC5 observation dataset plot in contrast reveals that the globe has experienced a cooling trend for almost 8 years since August 2014. (And NOAA's global temp dataset has been on a cooling trend since March 2014 through end of June 2022.)

By the way, this is not the only cooling trend in the 21st century. The HC5 dataset has recorded at least six separate occasions since 1999 (representing 40% of the months) when there was a rolling 36-month cooling trend of multiple months. In contrast, the climate expert modeled RCP8.5 scenario produced zero periods of a 36-month cooling tend.

Back to the August 2014-May 2022 cooling span.

Another characteristic of the modeled RCP8.5 scenario over the 94 months ending May 2022 is that it exhibits a monthly average anomaly change of +0.00271°C versus the HC5 average monthly anomaly change of only +0.00029°C. That is a 9 times per month larger outcome for the modeled scenario than the HC5's real world result.

If those average monthly changes for both were to continue for the next 100 years, the RCP8.5 result would hypothetically be 2.9°C degrees higher than the HC5.  

Yet, despite the above empirical science clearly indicating the incapacity of the RCP8.5 model to produce a reasonable representation of either global warming or global cooling trends, the uniformed elites continue to base future policy decisions on this model. This is especially true for the president of the United States and the vast majority of Democrats in Congress.

Why they continue to rely on obviously faulty computer models for climate/energy policy - or Covid policy for that matter - beggars belief.

An interesting article from 2015 regarding the RCP8.5 scenario.

An aside. Defenders of climate model output often fall back on the rationale that the models worked almost to perfection to predict past temperatures. Well, of course they did, due to the simple fact that the programmers knew in advance what the past temperatures were. But when the the models have to predict an uncertain future they do not fare well.

Case in point is the RCP8.5, which was introduced in 2013 and predicted past temps amazingly well. But by late 2014, the model results were starting to deviate consistently from actual observations. That explains why in reality we have an actual cooling trend from Sept 2014 to May 2022 while the RCP8.5 predicted the exact opposite.

Note: RC8.5 model scenario dataset; HC5 dataset. Excel used to calculate and plot linear trends.

What Existential Threat? Climate Doomers Are Ignorant That Climate Change History Repeats

Today's climate change doomers who preach that global warming from the highest atmospheric CO2 levels in modern times is leading to an existential threat of catastrophic and world-ending disasters are most definitely not well versed in real world climate history.

The past extreme climate events in the U.S. are noteworthy as examples of past climate change that rival any events occurring in the 21st century. Take the case of 1934.

In the first 6 months of 1934, the U.S. was suffering from a severe drought of little precipitation across a wide area of the contiguous states.

And the current lack of 2022 YTD precipitation, as documented by NOAA below, looks eerily similar.

Despite the similarity, the 1934 drought event suffered from a lack of precipitation that was at least 2.2 times more intense (when comparing precipitation anomalies) than the current 2022 event. The 1934 YTD period was the 2nd driest ever, while the 2022 YTD ranks only as the 23rd driest.

Yet, the more intense 1934 period event took place under a condition of atmospheric CO2 levels that was significantly lower than today's level.

Unfortunately, those that are in charge of U.S. climate and energy policies will remain ignorant of the way that climate history repeats itself, thus guaranteeing their polices will be an abject failure.

Prior article one and article two regarding: "What Existential Threat?".

What Existential Threat? Climate Is In A Constant State of Change, From One Extreme To Another

Why do politicians think the climate was ever "stable" in the past? When you have the likes of Pres. Joe Biden(D) and Sen. Mitt Romney(R) believing that, one realizes the world's elites are really stupid. That's truly scary, not constant natural climate change.

 

Chart source - NOAA. (click on chart to enlarge)

What Existential Threat?: US Temps Cooling Since 2014

Journalists' and Democrats' EXISTENTIAL threat of climate change: They must be very afraid of cooling temperatures, eh?

 

Plot of the precision USCRN climate stations as reported by NOAA. 

Despite warm June 2022 temperatures across much of the U.S., the overall cooling trend continues from March 2014.

It does make one wonder sometimes if human CO2 emissions cause temperatures to decline instead of the experts' predicted global warming.

Note: USCRN dataset. Excel used to plot and calculate linear and 6th degree polynomial trends

 

AOC's 'World Ending' Prediction vs Climate Reality: How Do They Compare?

Most will remember Democrat superstar Alexandria Ocasio Cortez's famous prediction that she stated during a January 2019 interview. It's now been 40 months since her prediction that in 12 years the world will end - 2131AD - from climate change.

And how has her prediction fared against reality?

In an attempt to be somewhat charitable to the Congressperson, her knowledge of climate reality and her prediction prowess are rather suspect to say the least.

Below are a series of five temperature charts that plot global temperatures the 40 months prior to her prediction, and the 40 months since her prediction, plus single atmospheric CO2 chart.

This first chart is a plot of global monthly temperature anomalies and linear trends for both the HadCrut 5.0 land/ocean surface areas and the UAH 6.0 atmosphere satellite global area. The timeframe for this chart is from Oct 2015 through the end of January 2019, which represents the 40 months prior to AOC's prediction.

This next chart plots the same temperature anomalies but for a different timeframe - the 40 months since her prediction (February 2019 through May 2022).

The third chart in the series looks similar to the first two, but instead of plotting the actual monthly anomalies, this chart plots the 12-month differences - i.e. change - between anomalies. For example, the difference between the October 2015 anomaly and that of October 2016; then the difference between November 2015 and that of November 2016; and so on. The timeframe for this chart is from October 2015 and January 2019.

This fourth chart is the same as the above third chart but with a different timeframe, February 2019 - May 2022 (the 40 months after her prediction).

The last temperature anomaly chart in the series is for the full 80 months of anomalies from October 2015 through May 2022.

Lastly, the following chart depicts the NOAA monthly atmospheric CO2 levels (ppm) for the full 80 months ending May 2022. In contrast to the declining global temperature trends, clearly the CO2 levels continue to increase at a monotonous pace.

Conclusion: Based on the empirical evidence, the world is not going to end by 2031AD. Unless one is concerned with the overall global cooling trend, it is irrational and illogical to even suggest that global warming from CO2 emissions poses an existential threat to humanity or civilization in the near/intermediate future. Those establishment elites who continue to utter this type of climate nonsense should be summarily thrown on the ash heap of anti-science liars. 

Note: Excel used to calculate/plot all measurements and linear trends. One extra chart can be found in comments. As of 6/29/22, the May 2022 HadCrut 5.0 temperature dataset still has not been published, as a result a May HC5 anomaly estimate of +0.74 was used.

The Last 30 Years U.S. Climate Warming: It's Not Unprecedented. It's Not A Crisis

Various institutions, politicians, bureaucrats, scientists, and legacy mainstream news outlets have long been trying to convince Americans that we are facing an existential crisis because of unprecedented climate warming - due to our lifestyle's CO2 emissions. Yet Americans remain skeptical, and for good reason.

The below chart (and the other two) is produced by NOAA's 'Climate At A Glance' site. It documents that the U.S. has experienced a warming climate since 1895.

Overall, our 48-state continental area has warmed at a non-existential "crisis" rate of 1.61°F per century.

The majority of warming appears to have occurred during the winter months (bottom spikes on chart), especially since the late 1970s. The warming of summer months (top spikes on chart) seems much less obvious in contrast.

(click on to enlarge)

This next chart displays the warming trend (blue line) for the last 30-year period ending December 31, 2021. The last 30 years have exhibited considerably more warming with a trend per century rate of +5.4°F. Surely this must be the "unprecedented" warming that threatens all Americans with a civilization-ending climate disaster!

But hold on. Despite all the predictions, proclamations, and protestations that the U.S. and Americans face utter ruin from this recent upsurge in warming, the empirical evidence from the scientists at NOAA shows indisputably that the recent 30-year warming is not unprecedented. This level of warming has happened before.

This below chart displays the warming trend from 1912 through 1941 - as calculated by NOAA - which confirms the past warmed at a faster pace than the recent warming - +6.12°F per century rate versus the +5.54°F rate. Important note: Our society did not collapse, nor did our ancestors die off in droves as a result.

And this faster warming period, ending in 1941, took place during a time when CO2 atmospheric levels increased an anemic 11ppm versus the robust 61ppm increase for the 30-year period ending in 2021. That's a 5-times difference, suggesting that the actual CO2 emission-warming factor is not the dominant climatic influence claimed by the doomsday alarmists.

While a high warming trend at any given date might seem dangerous to the average politician or a mainstream news script reader, it is in reality not the case, since short-term accelerating trends always revert to a short-term decelerating trends. It is this natural ebb and flow of warming and cooling that maintains a very stable climate.

For example, per NOAA, at the end of 1941 there existed a +6.12°F trend that would have produced a +4.9°F warming by the end of 2021, if it continued on uninterrupted from climate cooing periods. Instead, the average U.S. temperature increased by +1.9°F for that 80-year span of time. (Within 6 months of the end of 1941, the 5-year U.S. temperature trend had dropped to a minus 21.3°F.)

Conclusion: The known empirical evidence indicates Earth has been warming since the end of the Little Ice Age. The warming has frequently been interrupted by periods of flat and/or cooling temperatures. As documented by NOAA climate scientists, the recent 30-year warming is not unprecedented. Nor does the current warming present an existential crisis or threat to Americans since future climatic patterns, oscillations, and cycles will very likely temper or reverse temperature increases.

Global Warming Acceleration Proves NOT To Be An Existential Threat, Per The Empirical Evidence

(click on chart to enlarge)

Global warming is the grand bugaboo for all catastrophic climate change alarmists. In reality, though, this existential threat is without science merit.

For decades, the alarmists have predicted that there is an existential threat because temperatures are rapidly increasing due to human CO2 emissions. Their belief is that global temperatures are accelerating towards a 'tipping point' that will be civilization ending ..... and very soon, they say.

But, as this chart of accelerating/decelerating temperature trends reveals, not much has changed in a climate significant, long-term manner, due to the feared increase in atmospheric CO2.

(As an aside, it was in 1988, when NASA first presented the "existential" threat concept to gullible politicians.)

In a nutshell, global temperatures will accelerate - and then decelerate - regardless of the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. As can be observed, the 12-month per century temperature trend is extremely volatile, yet the 240-month (20-year) trend is relatively stable in contrast.

When viewed in context, the empirical evidence clearly demonstrates that the wild extreme swings in acceleration/deceleration for short-term temp trends does not translate into a wildly rapid acceleration of longer-term temperature trends.

And for further context, the current 20-year trend is at 1.46°C, which is significantly lower than the 2.43°C 20-year trend established way back in February 2004.

Yes, despite all the hair-pulling hysteria about the many multiple gigatonnes of CO2 emitted, the 20-year warming trend decreased by some 40% over the last 17 years.

Therefore, without that rapid acceleration of longer-term temperature trends, the existential threat of a climate tipping point is non-existent.

If the existential threat is non-existent, when should a potential climate tipping point become an issue of greater scrutiny and of serious debate?

Well, maybe when the aqua 240-month (20-year trend) trend starts rapidly increasing and then surpassing the red line (6.4°C) on the chart, which represents the minimum constant per century trend required every single month (from August 1, 2021 thru December 31, 2099) to produce a 5°C increase in global temps by 2100.

 

Notes: Excel was used for all slope calculations and then plotting of trends on chart. Green CO2 line on chart represents the CO2 atmospheric level cumulative growth (in ppm units) over time. Data sources: Modern CO2 levels & historical levels. UK's HadCrut4.6 monthly global temps.

IPCC's Gold-Standard Temperature Data: Last 7.25 Years World Has Been Cooling

(click on chart to enlarge)

The UK's global land and ocean dataset of temperature measurements confirms there has been a 7 year and 3 month span of cooling, as of the end of month, June 2021. Plus, the correlation between the global temps and atmospheric CO2 levels is negative for that period: -0.036

This is totally contrary to what politicians and crony-green capitalists have claimed, and also what "experts" have predicted.

Why are so many in the establishment's elite class wrong?

Simply, it's cult like anti-science belief in an unproven hypothesis that human CO2 emissions cause global warming that results in civilization-ending climate change. Or, they believe that the unproven hypothesis is a means to higher taxes and greater control over the masses.

Take your pick.

 

Prior global cooling article regarding NOAA's confirmation of a world not warming.

Additional temperature charts.

Notes: The UN's IPCC has relied on the UK's HadCRUT4 near surface temperature data as the gold-standard of empirical global-warming measurements for years. Excel used to plot the datasets & to calculate the trend/correlation. Sources of HC4 global temp data and CO2 data.

NOAA's Empirical Evidence Confirms The World Has Not Warmed Over Last 6+ Years

Does the world only have 100 days before it's too late to save Earth from global warming and climate change per 'climate czar' John Kerry's recent claim? Nope.

NOAA's up-to-date empirical climate evidence debunks that hyperbolic claim easily.

Unfortunately, as the public has discovered with the multitude of claims and exaggerations that have been wrong about the Covid disease over the last 18 months, similarly, politicians, bureaucrats and climate "experts" have been stupendously wrong - for decades - with their false predictions that fossil fuel CO2 emissions will soon cause the end-of-the-world, as we know it.

While the world's climate has exhibited a warming trend since the end of the Little Ice Age, the warming has not been constant. There are scattered throughout the decades actual extended cooling periods that retrace the prior warming.

In fact, since 2014, multiple NOAA temperature datasets confirm that the world has been cooling over the last six years, as of June 2021.

At this point, it's noteworthy to mention that today's government and academia climate experts, and their models, are unable to anticipate or explain these extended cooling periods, since their hypothesis of never-ending rapid warming due to human CO2 emissions has not matched well with climate reality. 

Below are the charts using NOAA's own climate empirical evidence confirming cooling trends that are now over six years in length.

First up, NOAA's global land and ocean temperature. From August 2014 through June 2021, there exists a cooling trend.

(click on chart to enlarge)

Next, NOAA's global ocean temperature measurements. From March 2014, there exists a cooling trend.

Next, NOAA's global land temperature measurements. From November 2014, there exists a cooling trend.

Next, NOAA's U.S. temperature measurements. From March 2014, there exists a cooling trend.

Finally, the UAH satellite (NOAA partners with UAH) lower troposphere satellite measurements. From March 2015, there exists a cooling trend.

 

To make it clear, the above documented cooling trends cannot be extrapolated into the future. However, that these trends exist runs counter to the consensus orthodoxy science; and, the trends belie the belief that there is a high correlation between the hypothetical atmospheric CO2 control knob and temperatures.

For the record, the actual correlations are significantly low for each NOAA temperature dataset, ranging from a -0.0511 to 0.0176. These stubborn facts completely debunk the mythical "control knob" that bureaucrat scientists would be able to utilize in order to manage climate change.

Conclusion: The NOAA empirical evidence is undeniable. The world is currently not warming and the liars' claim that a soon-to-be climate catastrophic collapse for humanity is total bunk.

 

Notes: Excel used to plot the datasets & to calculate the trends/correlations. Sources of NOAA temp data, UAH temp data and CO2 data.

Does The Level of Atmospheric CO2 Cause Climatic-Weather Extremes? Nope!

(click on to enlarge)

The real world, scientific empirical evidence simply does not support the anti-science, fringe claims that the trace gas CO2 is directly responsible for extreme weather events.

And yet, with the recent very hot temperatures hitting the U.S. Pacific Northwest region, the usual fear-mongering suspects will claim that these new temperature records are a result of dangerous global warming from CO2 fossil fuel emissions.

While temperature records will be set in 2021, the fact remains that recent temp records are not a new thing. NOAA scientists have documented past extreme temperature records (and precipitation records too) in all U.S. states going back to the 1890s.

There is a long history of new extremes and events regardless of the levels of atmospheric CO2.

As the adjacent chart reveals, our 21st century of record-setting temperature and precipitation events are not extreme when put in the context of of past climate change and global warming records for the U.S. Note that the 10-year average for both is less than once per year.

Visually, it is more than obvious that increasing CO2 levels is not the cause of dangerous climate tipping points, be it new temperature or new precipitation records. And statistically, the r-squared's provide the empirical evidence that the impact of CO2 on record-setting climate/weather events is laughably small, if any.

This does not change the fact that the world is warming and has been since the mid-1800's. But as far as CO2 producing climatic-change weather events that will end the world in the near future remains without any empirical merit.

It's another case of those stubborn facts that climate alarmists hate.

Note: Source of state records

NOAA Debunks Biden's Administration Basis For The Green New Deal - Global Temperatures Are in Decline

NOAA's database of global temperature observations confirm that the Trump administration policies did not cause an increase in global warming, much to the chagrin of Democrats and their climate experts.

(click on to enlarge)

Instead, at the end of 2020 there existed a 5-year cooling trend - for both land and ocean - that has extended into the first two months of 2021.

This lengthy cooling trend essentially debunks the need for the Biden 'Green New Deal' since the purported climate existential threat, emergency, crisis, apocalypse and/or extinction menace does not exist.

The empirical evidence from government agency cannot be more clear: dangerous, rapid global warming from human CO2 is without any merit.

Additional global and regional "warming" charts.

Note: Charts produced at this NOAA climate site.

 

CO2 Emissions: Why Transnational Government Agencies Are Unable To Control CO2

It's not difficult to determine why the UN and their climate change agreements always fail to reduce the growth of CO2 emissions.

Until the Chinese Communist Party decides to respect the global environment and all of humanity, the likelihood of any future climate agreement being successful is a '1' on a 1 to 1-billion scale.

Are U.S. Climate Temperatures Accelerating To New Highs?

The much touted climate Armageddon by politicians, which is supposed to happen within the next 9 to 12 years, is a pure science fiction plot unless global warming across the continental U.S. exhibits a consistent trend of temperatures accelerating to new highs over recent decades.

But have accelerating maximum temperatures in the U.S. actually happened on a consistent basis?

Nope.

A simple review of recent decadal empirical evidence - from NOAA climate scientists - indicates clearly the U.S. climate is not suffering from a condition of accelerating maximum temperatures that the politicians, bureaucrats and mainstream media have been propagandizing.

(click on to enlarge)	The following charts establish that during the majority of recent decades, the trend for maximum temperatures is not of dangerous accelerating rates but instead periods of decreasing rates. And although the 2020s decade is still in its earliest years, this decade's trend so far for U.S. maximum temperatures is downward, in a continuation from the two prior decades.  During both the 1990s and 1980s, the warming trends of maximum temperatures in the U.S. are evident. But neither decade exhibits an accelerated temperature trend that would be the harbinger of climate doomsday that has been prophesied.
	The 1970s were another decade of cooling maximum temps, and although not shown, so were the 1960s. One has to go back all the way to the 1930s and 1940s to find two decades in a row that had maximum U.S. temperatures increasing at a positive rate. In addition, an important observation is that every single decade sees a significant upward trend for atmospheric CO2 levels. Yet max temperatures in the U.S. often do much the opposite.
	Again, the empirical evidence simply does not exist that would support claims of a mass extinction for our American society from an accelerating, terrible global warming. This simple look at decadal trends of maximum temperatures simply refutes the claims of existential threat and completely undercuts the demands for the end of fossil fuels.  Additional temperature charts. Notes: Excel used to: convert Fahrenheit to Celsius; plot monthly U.S maximum temps & CO2 levels; to calculate/plot temp & CO2 linear trends.

The Changing U.S. Maximum Temperatures: An Existential Threat?

(click on to enlarge)

It's no mystery that NOAA over the many years has reported to policymakers and politicians that temperature changes in the U.S. are a potential problem.

And it's no mystery that the establishment politicos and policymakers have turned that warning into claims that we face an existential threat to life - as we know it - within 9 years.

But does the NOAA climate evidence for the U.S., in regards to changes in U.S. temperatures, support the existential threat claims?

Well, actually it doesn't.

Because in order to establish that there is even a hint of climate doom that we are facing, the actual temperature changes reported by NOAA should at least resemble the hyperbole about the climate's supposed dangerous global warming changes.

The above chart plots the actual 12-month changes of the maximum monthly temperature dataset across the continental U.S. since January 1965. In addition, it depicts the annual increase in the cumulative human CO2 emissions released over the same time span.

As can be seen, there is no systematic temperature change pattern evident that even produces a 'hint' of an existential threat.

Yes, temperature change in the U.S. has increased at certain points but as the three-year moving average (blue curve) reveals, that increase always reverts to a decrease - a natural return to the mean, so to speak. 

So, after 56+ years that experienced a gigantic cumulative global release of CO2 emissions that is close to 1.3 trillion metric tonnes, the hypothetical CO2-induced global warming that would cause a climate doomsday remains a wild exaggeration, without any empirical merit. 

With the above no-doomsday factual data in mind, what type of empirical evidence of temperature change would cause one to conclude that the empirical evidence resembles the hysterical claims of a potential existential threat? Below is a plot of hypothetically very small, but growing, 12-month temperature changes that are applied to every single month of the January 1965 to February 2021 dataset.

Result? An obvious, consistent pattern worthy of the legitimate concern: "Houston, we have a problem" with the climate.

(click on to enlarge)

Since climate reality does not exhibit this pattern, any hyperbolic claims by NOAA (and NASA) climate "scientists" and the establishment elites are nothing more than climate-porn lies designed to generate public fear.

Ahhh... 'those stubborn scientific facts' continue to be the nemesis of the establishment narrative.

Additional temperature charts.

Notes: Indeed, global and US temps have increased since the Little Ice Age, but the amount and pattern of temp change does not exhibit an existential threat from CO2 emissions. Cumulative CO2 data include an estimate for 2020 global emissions. Excel used to: convert Fahrenheit to Celsius; calculate and plot 12-month temperature changes, 36-month average; to calculate/plot cumulative CO2 emissions.

Hottest & Coldest Temperatures By Continent, As of 2020

One would think with the constant narrative barrage of climate change "doomsday" that there would be overwhelming empirical evidence proving that "catastrophic" global warming was creating continental wastelands of devastation from extreme temperatures.

But in reality, that isn't the case at all, as can be observed on the adjacent map image (click on image to enlarge).

When examining the hottest/coldest temperature records for the major continental masses, there has not been a new extreme temperature record established since 1994, per Wikipedia.

In fairness, there are smaller island and peninsula geographic areas that are surrounded by oceans that have new temp records since 1994. But those isolated incidents do not represent what is happening on the principal land mass of continents.

The fact that the "expert" predicted global warming doomsday from the trace greenhouse gas CO2 is not being observed at the continental level, even after decades of massive fossil fuel emissions, indicates that the global climate is not experiencing a "tipping point" of instability, which would result in an "existential" threat.

In summary, it's another case of those stubborn facts refuting the anti-science orthodoxy of dogmatic doomsday propaganda.

Latest Evidence: NOAA & Smithsonian Confirm Modern Era Temps Well Below Those of Past

As many climate scientists and skeptics have reported extensively, today's global temperatures are not unusual or exceptional in terms of warmth.

In fact, current global temperatures are so below what has occurred in the past, scientists at both NOAA and the Smithsonian Institution have been forced to deal with that reality.

Their updated (adjacent) temperature graph, as published in this article, clearly depicts modern temps significantly below those of past warmer periods.

Besides being below those of the past, the graph demonstrates that the idea of a "stable" climate is bunk. The climate is always changing and that also applies to today's climate.

It's another case of 'those stubborn facts' that is so hated by green-activists and wealthy renewable energy cronies.

 

Anti-Prosperity Democrats Joe Biden & Kamala Harris Are Wrong: Climate Change & Global Warming Are Natural, Not A Result of CO2

(click on to enlarge)

Out of touch, and well outside the boundaries of the U.S. mainstream moderate electorate, Democrat Joe Biden and his fringe left colleagues have been declaring that the world - as we know it - is soon going to end due to a global warming and a resulting climate change apocalypse.

But is that a reasonable, rational pro-science expectation?

Instead of focusing on the major reason of a natural rebound progression of global warming since the Little Ice Age, the anti-growth, anti-prosperity Democrats point to the smaller human related impact: fossil fuel emissions (CO2) from modern industrial/consumer activities.

The Democrat Party's anti-growth, anti-prosperity, anti-CO2 platform has become a dominant party position ever since the June 1988 climate doomsday Congressional testimony of NASA's chief climate scientist, James Hansen.

It was from that Congressional testimony that the doomsday prophecies of unprecedented global temperature change from CO2 became the lodestone of the party's faithful.

So, how good have those doomsday global warming change prophecies been since June 1988 (32 years ago)? In a one-word summation: lousy.

This first chart shows the temperature change plots of the IPCC's gold-standard global temperature dataset, along with the monthly cumulative growth of atmospheric CO2 levels (ppm) since June 1, 1988 through June 2020. Multiple periodicities of temperature change include 1-year (twelve month); 5-year (60 months); 10-year (120 months); 15-year (180 months); and, 20-year (240 months).

For example, the chart's 15-year temperature change ending June 2020 is almost identical to the 15-year temperature change ending June 1988. Respectively, those changes were +0.13°C and +0.11°C.

That tiny difference certainly confirms that over the past 30 years there has not been an extreme impact on longer-term temperature change despite some 850 billion tonnes of CO2 being emitted into the atmosphere since 1988.

And the chart absolutely reflects an up/down pattern of temperature change for all periodicities, but clearly it does not demonstrate any significant relationship to the very substantial, monotonous linear growth of CO2 levels.

To clear the clutter of multiple curves crisscrossing each other on the first chart, this next chart depicts the 36-month average (3-year average) of each temperature change curve found on the prior graph.

(click on to enlarge)

These plots also confirm an up/down pattern for all periodicities, plus confirms an absence of relation between the atmospheric CO2 level linear growth and temperature change.

Based on this empirical evidence of rather stable cyclical temperature change, plus the evidence from the prior article that global warming acceleration/deceleration also follows a cyclical pattern, it can be fairly surmised that human CO2 emissions are having little, if any, climate significant impact on global temperatures.

Although NASA's top climate scientist in 1988 predicted climate disaster was upon us due to intense global warming from CO2, after 30+ years it's time to admit he was wrong and it's time for the Democrats to stop pushing this anti-science, anti-prosperity, doomsday propaganda.

As usual in climate science, it's just another case of those stubborn facts that are so inconvenient.

Additional temperature charts here, here and here.

Note: Plots, temperature change and 36-month average calculations done with Excel.  Sources: global HadCrut dataset and NOAA's CO2 dataset

It's Indisputable Empirical Evidence: Trump's Policies Are Slowing Global Warming & Climate Change

(click to enlarge)

It is a known fact that during the Obama and Biden administration, global warming accelerated to a very high rate, which in turn resulted in the overall climate change accelerating.

Since January 2017, the Trump administration has slashed regulations and introduced new energy policies that unleashed American firms to innovate and invest at a spectacular speed. 

The end result has not only produced an actual cooling trend for global 'warming,' and thus a slowing of climate change, but Trump's policies have produced the long-sought energy independence and security that former President Jimmy Carter only dreamed of.

This chart reflects the empirical evidence of the Trump successes.

If only Democrats' Obama and Biden had embraced smart and innovative energy/climate polices during their tenure, the world would have been that much further along in addressing global warming.

 

Note: Source of HC4 global dataset plotted, from January 1850 thru June 2020. Excel used to calculate and plot slope and 10-yr moving average.

Remember When Climate Experts & MSM Were Fear-Mongering About The Amazon Being Destroyed By Droughts Caused By CO2? Never Mind

(click on to enlarge)

Back around 2005-2010, the climate change experts and the mainstream media were going on and on about the Amazon devastation due to droughts.

The implication was that the droughts were due to human caused climate change, and the droughts, in turn, would cause more climate change that would then cause the droughts to worsen - a prospective positive feedback loop prediction that did not bode good tidings for humans.

But skeptics around the world challenged these conclusions for obvious reasons.

Major regional droughts have always happened and they were not driven by human CO2 emission activity in the form of fossil fuel consumption. Plus, surprise, droughts have this habit of ending, which are then followed by periods of plentiful rain.

The 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts were no different.

As it turns out, the skeptics were right again and the climate experts; and the expert/MSM coalition were again victims of their own failed prediction hubris.

In a recent peer-reviewed study, nine scientists reconstructed the precipitation totals for the eastern equatorial Amazon basin of Brazil.

The adjacent chart depicts their findings. Simply stated, there are periods of excess rainfall and there are subsequent periods of drought over the 230-year period. The dramatic precipitation fluctuations are part of the natural cycle and those droughts taking place in the 21st century are part of this natural pattern.

From a review of the study:

"Examination of the precipitation record reveals, in the words of the authors, that it is "dominated by interannual and subdecadal variability, not unlike the instrumental precipitation totals for the eastern Amazon study area." Focusing on such variability captured in the reconstruction, Granato-Souza et al. note the existence of two extended wet episodes, a mid-twentieth century period from 1942-1956 and an earlier late nineteenth century period between 1882 and 1903, and one exceptional extended dry episode that occurred during the years 1864 and 1881.....A longer-term perspective of the moisture regime clearly indicates there is no compelling support for that contention given that both wet and dry periods of greater duration and magnitude have naturally occurred throughout the record despite atmospheric CO2 concentrations being much lower than they are today."

See prior articles on droughts and failed predictions.

The Climate Emergency 'Tipping Point': Does The Empirical Science Verify or Reject The Doomsday Fears?

(click on to enlarge)

Fortunately for those who believe in empirical science, the facts are indisputable. The earth is not at risk of rapid global warming that would set off a soon-to-be 'climate emergency or 'climate crisis' tipping point.

We live in an era where cult-like beliefs have caused a great number of people to accept what resembles a prophecy about the world ending within 12 years, from a global warming 'tipping point' for the climate.

This fear-mongering myth takes the form that humanity is causing - due to fossil fuel emissions - a rapid acceleration of global temperatures that will wreak havoc and destruction as the tipping point is reached.

But is there actual empirical evidence that this doomer prophecy is playing out with a soon-to-be ending to civilization?

The included chart is a plot of the IPCC's gold-standard empirical global temperature data representing how fast/slow global temperatures are moving - it's a climate warming speedometer, so to speak.

A breakdown of the chart:

30+ Years After Claiming That CO2 Was The 'Control Knob' For Planetary Temperatures It's Still M.I.A.

Over the last three decades, advocates of climate change alarmism have claimed that the trace greenhouse gas CO2 is the rapid global warming control knob that humans can use to tweak the world's climate, thus allowing for a deceleration of the supposed "harmful" warming.

But after some 30+ years, the empirical evidence for that claim still remains missing in action (M.I.A.).

The adjacent chart of lower atmosphere temperature trend plots and atmospheric CO2's constant growth completely refutes the concept that warming rates (acceleration/deceleration) can be controlled by a magical bureaucrat's CO2 knob.

As it is blindingly obvious, atmospheric temperatures rates are constantly changing, going from a state of acceleration, to a deceleration state, and then back to acceleration, without any regard to CO2 levels.

Without any regard to CO2 levels?

The pale yellow boxes near the bottom of the chart the relationship between atmospheric CO2 levels and the various plotted per century temperature trends. Those correlations barely climb out of the basement, with two even exhibiting a negative correlation.

The hypothesis that CO2 is currently a strong influencer on the world's warming is essentially factless.

Clearly, whether it's a reduction in human emissions or using technology to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, there will be no changing the natural planetary phenomenon of the constant change in temperature warming and cooling rates.

Simply stated, there is no 'control knob' for humans to utilize to slow or speed up global warming.

Once the public comes to realize the fake CO2 doomsday science being pushed by the establishment does not offer a solution, the sooner we can move to adaption strategies for coping with any negative outcomes from a warmer world (and also take advantage of the massive benefits from global warming).

Note: Excel was used to average the monthly global temperatures from the UAH and RSS satellite datasets; Excel was used to calculate the per century trends in the plots; Excel was used to plot the atmospheric CO2 levels from this dataset; Excel used to chart all data and to calculate the moving per century slope trends.

Debunking The CO2 Climate Doomsday Scenario With Empirical Evidence

(click to enlarge)

Empirical evidence is the bane of all climate change 'doomers' since it contradicts what they've been told as being true.

In a nutshell, the doomer contention is that a civilization doomsday will happen within the next 12 years because of climate change.

The principal foundation of their alarmist catastrophic scenarios is the never tested, never proven hypothesis that human CO2 emissions will cause incredible, tipping point global warming, thus leaving planet Earth uninhabitable.

However, fortunately for the world and its inhabitants, there is absolutely zero empirical evidence supporting the claimed soon-to-be "doomsday" from growing CO2 emissions.

The adjacent chart plots 3 evidence lines of significant importance. 

The black line with white dots is a plot of total CO2 emissions for the prior 12 years. The very first white dot represents total 12-year emissions ending in 1958. The next white dot represents the cumulative emissions for the 12 years ending 1959, and so on. The last dot represents total emissions for the 12 years ending 2018.

The gray dotted line with the black squares is the plot of atmospheric CO2 changes over 12 months. For example, the first black square on the left represents the total change in atmospheric CO2 levels from November 30, 1958 through November 1959. Each progressive black square represents the 12-month change for the given period ending in November until the last square is reached for the 12-month period ending November 2019.

And the pale orange line with red circles is the plot of HadCrut global temperature changes over the preceding 12 months, all periods (red circles) ending in November.

CO2's Continental Impact On Extreme Temperatures Over Last Decade

(click on image to enlarge)

Amazingly, the impact has been zilch on each continent's and hemisphere's hottest and coldest temperature extremes.

Based on the doomsday hysteria, one would expect every continent to be reaching an unprecedented, new extreme hot temperature record every single year.

But alas, per the empirical records through the end of 2019, there has been no individual continental 'hottest' temperature record surpassed since 1982 - maybe matched since then, but not surpassed.

Way back in 1982, the continent of Antarctica set a new hottest record temperature of +67.2°F.

And the world's 1913 single hottest temperature ever of 134.0°F has yet to be broken or even matched.

As far as the 'coldest' temperature record, the last time a new record was set took place during 1983, again on the continent of Antarctica. That 1983 coldest low reached a -128.6°F.

So, after another decade of hysterical screaming by doomsday alarmists about "unprecedented" warming, the experts confirm - using empirical evidence - that the world is not "burning up" due to the hundreds of billions of tonnes of 'evil' fossil fuel CO2 emissions released into the atmosphere. Nor has all that CO2 caused even lower extremes of cold temperatures.

It's another case of those stubborn facts debunking the very fake narrative of a climate change doomsday existential threat.

Note: Global temperature extremes by geological continent can be located here and here. (The WMO lists both Israel and Greenland as part of Europe, which is purely a political decision, not based on the actual geology of continents. Geologically, Greenland is part of the North American continent and Israel sits on the western portion of the Asian continent.)

'Greta & The Doomers': 2019 UN's Climate "Emergency" Conclave Reminded About Hurricane Reality

'Greta and her UN climate change alarmist friends are currently attending the UN's Madrid Climate conference, which seems to be experiencing some unplanned difficulties.

As in past years, this conclave's purpose is to frighten mainstream journalists with stories of pending doom caused by fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Of course, they always state that doom is 'just around the corner.' 

After decades of these disaster prognostications never coming true, one would think journalists would finally learn that they are being played.

Not yet it would appear (one is always reminded of the maxim that journalists are not the sharpest blades in the drawer).

Recently we had another example of the failed doomerism religion, and it comes with the end of the 2019 hurricane season, which the UN, Greta, and journalists do not want the public to be aware of.

As this article lays out, the doomer-cult scary predictions of increased frequency and increased intensity of hurricanes simply has not happened. And the adjacent charts reveal the indisputable empirical evidence, much to the angst of Greta and friends. 

Additional failed predictions and severe event charts.

Straightforward Explanation As To Why 'OK Doomer' Is The Correct Reply To CO2 Climate Change Alarmists

 

A scientist explains in a slow and rational manner that shouldn't even trigger the likes of teenager doomer-brat Greta Thunberg. Link to video and link to transcript.

More Proof That Predicted Catastrophic Modern "Global Warming" Does Not Exist

With all due respect to the profession of mainstream journalism, there is no such thing as rapid, catastrophic "global warming."

In fact, there are vast land and sea areas that are not warming, which seriously counters publicized statements that the world is suffering from a "global" climate condition. And claims of rapid, catastrophic "global" warming are simply fictional derivatives of imagination.

For example, the Southern Hemisphere's and tropical-latitude oceans currently have sea temperature anomaly measurements that are essentially the same as those found during the during the period of 1997-1999, some 20+ years ago. 

And a critical example of a large land mass without significant warming is the contiguous land mass of the lower 48 U.S. states.

The above chart (click on to enlarge) is a plot of average U.S temperature anomalies and one does not need to be a climate scientist to discern from the plot that the fear-mongering about rapid, dangerous, and catastrophic warming is empirical nonsense.

Putting some flesh on the empirical science bones, the chart is plotted from the datasets produced by the world's only state-of-the-art climate/weather USCRN measurement system with 140 station sites all across the contiguous U.S.

Notice that since the USCRN sites went online in January 2005, over the last 14+ years the average U.S. temperature has had periods of both cooling and warming.

And when comparing the latest August 2019 12-month average (green circle) and the 8-month average (yellow star) with their respective beginning averages in 2005, it's clear that the current averages are lower.

Also, as the chart's 6th degree fitted trend line (black) indicates, the most recent warming has turned towards a cooling direction.

Based on these facts, it can be fairly surmised that the climate doomsday cult prediction of a global warming inferno is without empirical evidence, and it can justly be called anti-scientific as well. With a little greater specificity, the claim that human CO2 emissions has produced a global "tipping point" with runaway warming is demonstrably false.

For the record, including 2005, there has been 441 gigatonnes of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere through 2018, which represents an overall increase of 25%.

But where's the predicted rapid and dangerous "global" warming from all these emissions? Not in the U.S. Not in the immense waters of the Southern Hemisphere. And amazingly, not in a lot of other places: Ireland, China, Greenland, England, Finland, North Atlantic, Sweden, France, Central Europe, Japan, and other various countries. 

In summary, apparently for politicians, celebrities, "journalists" and teenagers, science and empirical evidence are no longer to be taken seriously. Thus fossil fuels and their resulting emissions have become convenient scapegoats, nothing more. And wildly speculative climate change predictions are, unfortunately, tipping point catnip for the hysterical and feeble-minded.

Note: As occurs everywhere, in the U.S. during that 2005-2019 time span there were quite a few hot months; but the same can be said about cold months. When all is said and done, the hot period spans are canceled out by the cooler spans, which is what the 'average' natural climate cycle does. There has been regional warming and regional cooling as the the various regional climates continue to change; and climate expert predictions have failed to account for the non-consistent attributes of climate change.

Good News: Latest Research Confirms Rapid Greenland Ice Melt Has Disappeared Over Recent Years

Climate change hysteria has frequently focused on Greenland's past ice sheet loss of both mass and area.

Two new peer-reviewed studies debunk, with the current empirical evidence, another climate doomsday scenario promulgated by the alarmist cult. Specifically, the doomsday prediction that heavily populated coastal regions will soon be submerged due to Greenland's ice melt.

In fact, the ice loss deceleration has reached the point where scientists are now using the term 'stabilized' in reference to the ice sheet conditions in Greenland.

“The period 2007–2012 underwent a rapid loss of glacier area, compared to 2013–2018, in which glacier area was relatively stable, associated with a small area change."

The documented and unexpected deceleration is believed to be a result of a decrease in solar short-wave radiation, due to the unexpected increasing cloud coverage over recent years in the Greenland region.

Both of these unexpected events were not predicted by the "sophisticated" climate models and the "experts."

Additional documented prediction failures.  

Another Inconvenient Climate Science Truth: Humans Turning World Into A Green Paradise

Per recent multiple peer-reviewed studies, climate doomsday alarmists can no longer deny the scientific consensus: CO2 and global warming are returning the earth's biosphere to a green paradise of lush vegetation. (image source)

“Carbon‐climate interactions led to significant increases in tropical forests and the forests of North America, Eurasia, and China.”

"Due especially to the rise in CO2 concentrations, 52% of the globe’s vegetated lands have shown statistically significant greening/gross primary production trends since 1981, whereas just 12% of vegetated areas have been browning. CO2’s greening effect has been underestimated by 60% with outdated models."

"According to scientists, the overwhelming majority of the “significant increases in tropical forests and the forests of North America, Eurasia, and China” since the early 1990s can be attributed to the combination of CO2 fertilization (56%) and climate change (35%)."

"Historical increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration, from 280 to current 400 ppm, has resulted in enhanced GPP [gross primary production/greening] due to its radiative and physiological effects"

"Our central finding is, the effect of ambient CO2 concentration on terrestrial photosynthesis is larger than previously thought, and thus, has important implications for future carbon cycle and climate.”

“Climate  change  associated  with  rising  atmospheric  carbon  dioxide  (CO2)  concentration  may  have  impact  on  crop production and soil health. Increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration may enhance crop growth with higher demand for nutrients by the crop....Grain and biomass yield of rice was significantly higher under elevated CO2 condition."

“The relative top heights of the young [Ed: tree] stands [Ed: sessile oaks] were significantly higher than of the older stands, which means that the overall growing conditions were better in the last 30-35 years due to atmospheric changes..."

And humans, the industrial revolution, and economic prosperity deserve a robust round of applause from everyone.

CO2 Acidification: Is The Southern Ocean Marine Food Chain Ecosystem At Risk?

A recent "study" by "scientists" playing with their computer climate model simulations guesses that there might be a future depth shift of the Southern Ocean carbonite event horizon based on simulated output from the model.

Editor Note: The aforementioned depth shift is speculated to occur when human emissions of CO2 infiltrate the ocean's waters, thus causing an acidifcation process associated with lower pH.

They report that maybe the ocean's pteropods species (a sea snail) will be harmed and may not be able to adapt.

The model output results do not seem to correlate well with known scientific facts..."Some estimate it began as early as 2006 in discrete locations, while others predict it will begin as late as 2038. The research suggests that the change may be inevitable..."

Their scientific conclusion from zero empirical evidence? "If that occurs, it could impact marine food webs significantly and lead to cascading changes across ocean ecosystems, including disruptions of vital global fisheries." And, "These factors put us closer to a threshold that might be harmful for a lot of organisms,."

In comparison to the above "scientists," there are scientists who actually conduct experiments to determine outcomes that are based on observed reality and not simulations.

For example, this 2018 study by 9 scientists determined that actual phytoplankton organisms, a major food source for the Southern Ocean ecosystem, were test for survival in waters with a lower pH - i.e. acidified waters. The scientists found the increased levels of CO2 "did not have a significant impact on the [phytoplankton] community, either individually or in combination with other factors,".

Then there is this study by 7 scientists who investigated the impact of different levels of elevated water CO2 on Southern Ocean adult krill, a crucial marine food staple for blue whales and other mammal species.

What did they find? "Ericson et al. state that "the measured physiological processes in adult Antarctic krill were robust to near-future ocean acidification (1000-2000 µatm pCO2)." In particular, they note that "the survival rate of krill subject to near-future pCO2 increased by up to 11%" and that such pCO2 levels "did not affect the size of adult krill," nor their ability to moult, grow, store fat or mature."

Getting back to the pteropods, this 2018 scientific study with the apt title, "Pteropods counter mechanical damage and dissolution through extensive shell repair", pretty much counters the pteropod doomsday scenario conjured up by the computer simulation jockeys.  

The study's 5 scientists determined the following: ""the ability of L. helicina [pteropod] to repair shell damage in naturally undersaturated conditions indicates that this species has more potential to counteract the deleterious effects ocean acidification may have on their shells than previously considered." ...it adds "to the growing body of evidence that many polar calcifiers, exposed to undersaturated waters, can withstand and repair damage to their shells, perhaps on account of natural exposure to heightened physical and chemical variability, which have resulted in organisms developing or exhibiting an inherent resilience strategy.""

In summary, per the real-world science, the Southern Ocean food chain ecosystem appears not to be at risk for CO2 emissions.

One should remember that there is no computer simulation substitute for real scientific investigation and research.

Unfortunately, climate computer models have harmed the scientific endeavor and reputation with simulated doomsday results that have little basis in reality. It is our opinion, as we have stated before, policymakers across all forms of government should never rely on output from computer models - they are fundamentally flawed and promulgated by agenda-driven "scientists." 

Previous climate model articles.

Those Stubborn Facts: Research Indicates That CO2 Emissions Have Zero Impact On Temperatures In Central Asia

A new peer-reviewed study provides additional evidence that significant parts of the world have not experienced the hypothesized dangerous and rapid global warming impact of CO2 emissions.

Central Asia represents a large swath of the globe's land area where one would expect that the "powerful" temperature impact of humanity's CO2 would be rather robust.

Although the area exhibited warming in the 20th century, it is not much different than earlier warming from periods centuries ago (see graph at bottom).

And there has been a recent late 20th century cooling that is attributed to natural factors.

"[T]he recent cool-moist period from 1985 to 2000 has been related to the Arctic Oscillation...During this recent cool-moist period, ice mass accumulation of the glaciers in the Russian Altai Mountains was observed and Narozhniy and Zemtsov (2011) connected this phenomenon to annual precipitation increased by 8% – 10% especially in winter and spring (April-May) as a result of a strengthening of the zonal circulation over the Altai Mountains.”

Conclusion: Those stubborn facts again get in the way of the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming doomsday claims. Central Asia's warming and cooing during both the past and modern era look to be more a function of natural volcano variations and ocean oscillations.

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Ocean Acidification Study: Unexpectedly, Atlantic Salmon Grow & Thrive With Increased Acidification

Link to image source

Acidification of ocean waters from human CO2 emissions has raised concerns that aquatic life would be severely impacted. Yet, actual studies testing acidification levels on different species more often than not reveal that sea life is not impaired.

Adding to that empirical evidence is a new study on Atlantic salmon smolt.

"In a test of the above hypothesis, McCormick and Regish examined "the effect of future ocean        acidification on the salinity tolerance and early seawater growth of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar        smolts."..."Results of the analysis, in the words of the authors, revealed that "ocean acidification  will not negatively affect the survival and ion regulatory ability [and, hence, salinity tolerance] of S. salar smolts," Furthermore, McCormick and Regish add that "rather than have a detrimental effect, ocean acidification conditions may actually improve the growth of S. salar in the first 2 weeks after seawater exposure." With respect to this latter parameter, Figure 1 graphically portrays the mean specific growth rates of the fish inhabiting the two seawater pH regimes, revealing 40 percent higher specific growth rates of Atlantic salmon in the ocean acidification treatment compared to ambient seawater pH."

Possible conclusion: CO2 makes for very happy fish.

Settled Science? Only 12 Years Until U.S.A. Is Burnt To A Crisp From #CO2 #GlobalWarming & #Climate Change?

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Does @AOC's prediction that we are all going to fry within 12 years because of CO2 emissions have any basis in empirical reality? (Or, for that matter, does her #GreenNewDeal utopia?)

Here is a chart from the NOAA National Centers For Environmental Information. It is a plot of the maximum temperatures for the hottest U.S. month - July - going back to 1895.

The trend line (blue line) plotted by NOAA reveals that maximum temperatures in July have been on a declining trend of -0.07°F per century since 1914 through July 2018.

And if the exact same NOAA plot was done for August maximum temperatures - the 2nd hottest month for U.S. summers - there is a declining trend of -0.26°F per century since 1928.

Unequivocally, the recent maximum temperatures over the most recent 5 years, during the two hottest months of summer, are not unprecedented.

Below is a table of the 10 hottest months since 1895, along with the respective global atmospheric CO2 level at the time. The lack of correlation between hottest years and CO2 is striking.

Clearly, all the human CO2 emissions produced during the modern era have not significantly changed the overall trend of maximum temperatures since the early 20th century.

Conclusion: The AOC climate change fearmongering, along with her fellow Green New Deal Democrats', is a narrative without any empirical evidence. The narrative that U.S. adults, children, and grandchildren will to survive in a 'living hell' that will destroy our society within the next 12 years is highly, highly unlikely. Per the evidence presented in the chart and table, we have survived warmer temperatures in the past, and will do so in the future because we've adapted and can now better cope with both higher and lower temperatures (thank the modern advances in technology, engineering, medicine, and food production and they will continue).

Note: Trend lines are not predictions. They provide a sense of direction from the past to a specific endpoint, but they provide absolutely no proof of what will take place in the future, especially with a global climate that is dominated by large natural oscillations and variations. NOAA web site that maximum temperature plots are available from.

Winning: Trump's Energy & Climate Polices Bring Obama's Global Warming Peak To Cooling Climate Status

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HadCrut 4.6, the gold-standard global temperature dataset, confirms that Trump's energy and climate policies are delivering dramatic results the benefit of mankind!

After global warming temperature trends hit a post-1950 peak under the Obama administration, Trump has dropped the Obama's scary warming peak to a cooling status for the last 5 years.

Yes, temperatures have now decelerated to a rate of a cooling climate.

Obama couldn't lower the seas as promised but Trump lowered the world's fever of ever increasing temperatures.

One never tires of 'Winning.' :-)

 

[Note: Excel used to calculate 5-year temperature trends. Excel used to plot trends - HC4.6 global dataset. Trends are only temporary and not predictions. Climate change exists and constantly happens and warming has taken place since the Little Ice Age.]

New Peer-Reviewed Study: An Example of Why "Global Warming" Is Not Global

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What many journalists and politicians do not realize is that climate change warming is not global. At any given time, there are regions of the world that are warming, while at the same time other regions are either cooling or exist within a stable temperature range.

An example of the actual real-world climate regime is the South China Sea denoted by the accompanying chart.

A group of researchers from China produced a better methodology to reconstruct a historical dataset of sea temperatures for the month of March from 1893-2011.

The findings from their research?

"...above-average temperatures occurred in 1904-1913, 1929-1948, 1961-1973 and 1991-2006. Below-average temperatures, on the other hand, occurred in 1914-1925, 1949-1960, 1979-1990 and 2007-2011. What is particularly insightful about the reconstruction, however, is the absence of any apparent anthropogenic influence on the 119-year record of SST variability. In fact, there appears to be nothing unusual, unnatural or unprecedented about current temperatures. Indeed, temperatures of the past four decades have remained relatively stable over the whole length of the record."

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And on the other side of the world, we have the example of a cooling Ireland, which clearly seems to have missed this "global warming" that everyone in media, Hollywood, and D.C. continuously claim - obviously, without ever checking the actual evidence.

But, don't hold your breath expecting either the mainstream media or politicians or celebrities pushing the climate change alarmism to inform the public that "global warming" is not truly global.

 

Climate Change Apocalypse Cult: Does Empirical Evidence Support AOC's Doomsday In 12 Years Prediction?

Does AOC's (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) well publicized and dramatic prediction that climate-doomsday will strike humanity in a very short 12 years have any empirical validity?

If indeed that is the case, then surely global warming must be accelerating at a fevered rate that should easily be detected within today's known empirical measurement evidence, or not.

Per the CAGW hypothesis, the coming climate collapse prediction demands that the rapid global warming acceleration be closely linked with the undisputed continuous growth of atmospheric CO2 levels.

But does the empirical evidence support such a link?

The adjacent chart plots the global warming acceleration per century rates (12 month, 36 month, 60 month, and 120 month) using the HadCrut global temperature dataset through February 2019. In addition, the levels of atmospheric CO2 are plotted.

The temperature plots show a wide range of acceleration/deceleration, especially for the shorter time frames.

Viewing the chart (click on to enlarge), it becomes obvious that a major 12-month acceleration trend can turn quickly into a major deceleration trend - a 40 degree +/- change in direction is not uncommon.

Currently, both the 36-month (bright red) and 60-month (bright green) are exhibiting a cooling rate (respectively, a -5.9°C cooling/century rate and a -2.1°C cooling per century rate).

The 120-month acceleration rate is falling but still in warming mode at +2.6°C/century; and the 12-month acceleration rate of 10.9°C warming rate/century has reversed its trend from a -31.8°C cooling rate reached in December 2017.

Putting the current 120-month (i.e. 10-year) acceleration rate in context, as recently as October 2013 there existed a deceleration period - i.e. a minus cooling rate trend. In addition, the February 2019 rate is significantly below the highest warming peaks of November 1983, September 1988, and September 2002; and it is below the pre-1950's peaks of 1941 and 1916.

The good news is that there is no indication in the chart's plots that anything extraordinary is now taking place suggesting there is a total climate system of "rapid" accelerated warming. There is nothing there that would provide a reasonable rational basis for any fear of climate change destruction in 12 years.

Since the actual current trends do not support the AOC climate change doomsday claim, is there at least any empirical evidence that establishes a strong link between atmospheric CO2 levels and rapid acceleration of warming trends?

Nope.

The correlations between the CO2 levels and the rate of temperature increase is close to being nonexistent. For the 12-month rate the r² is +0.0006; the 36-month r² is +0.008; the 60-month rate r² is +0.04; and the 120-month r² is +0.14.

With such low r²'s, the claim that CO2 levels are a dominant forcing which determine the rate of increase in global warming is a hypothesis without empirical clothing. And puts into serious question the validity of the overall CAGW hypothesis.

Conclusion: Based on an analysis of the gold-standard global temperature dataset and current atmospheric CO2 levels, there is conclusive evidence that acceleration/deceleration rates of temperature are within a natural variation range, with little to any apparent relationship or enhancement from greenhouse gases, such as CO2. Doomsday from CO2 greenhouse emissions within 12 years is beyond unlikely.

[Note: Excel used to calculate temperature trends. Excel used to plot trends and CO2 levels. HC4.6 global dataset; historical CO2 dataset and recent CO2 dataset.]