C3

Key Fingerprint of Rapid Acceleration of Global Warming Is Missing

One of the key fingerprints - aka 'tenets' - of the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) hypothesis is that fossil fuel combustion emissions will create a mid-troposphere tropical hotspot due to a surplus of trapped CO2 molecules. The hotspot warming then initiates positive climate feedbacks that amplifies the warming trend, which is predicted to be robustly higher than the warming trend on Earth's surface.

But has that taken place as predicted?

Since December 1978, satellites have monitored the mid-troposphere, and the evidence shows that global surface temperatures have in reality been warming at a rate that is nearly two times as fast (1.9x) as that of the hypothetical "amplified" tropical mid-troposphere warming rate.

This reversal of the expected outcome is contrary to the experts' hypothesis.

Compounding this failure of this AGW hypothesis tenet is the empirical evidence that there has been a very minor cooling/flat trend in the mid-troposphere tropics since August 2013.

This modest cooling happened in spite of a huge amount of CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fossil fuel combustion and other GH gases, such as methane from cows.

Also, this 10-year period of slight cooling took place even with the two large El Niño temperature spikes of 2014–2016 and 2018–2019. Plus, another new spike of temperatures is currently taking place in 2023 from the developing El Niño, as seen in this chart.

The second chart is a scatter plot that allows for the calculation of the R2 relationship strength between the two variables, CO2 atmospheric levels and the mid-troposphere tropic temperature anomalies.

A typical strong relationship would produce a R2 of at least +0.70.

In this case, the R2 = +0.0001.

(click on image to enlarge)

That microscopic R2 indicates there is no relationship between atmosphere CO2 and tropical temperatures in the mid-troposphere.

That is a completely unexpected outcome that undercuts the hypothesis that the trace CO2 gas will have a powerful impact on current and future climate temps, especially in the region of the predicted atmospheric tropical hotspot.

And without the requisite AGW 'hotspot', the likelihood of the amplified rapid acceleration of warming from the climate's positive feedback mechanisms becomes a very possible non-event.

Additional global and regional temp charts.

Note: Excel used for all calculations and plotting. Source of UAH satellite monthly mid-troposphere temperature anomalies. Source for CO2 monthly data. 

UN's Climate Porn Ignores Climate Reality of Empirical Evidence

In their effort to persuade the public that CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels are broiling the planet, UN chief, Antonio Guterres, and his globaltarian comrades spread a narrative of fringe climate porn, such as ClimateBreakdown, ClimateChaos, or GlobalBoiling.

However, they are all ignoring actual scientific empirical evidence that powerfully contradicts this narrative propaganda.

Importantly, throughout the past 8+ years, climate expert projections and their climate models of the global warming trend have been grievously inaccurate. This incredible inaccuracy is hidden from the public by the UN, by the government-funded scientists, and by the mainstream legacy press.

Chart #1 compares the actual slight cooling of the world with the one predicted by "expert" climate scenario models.

(The chart's RCP8.5 scenario model results (red curve) are publicized by those spreading climate change disaster propaganda, and unfortunately, often used by real policymakers.)

Significantly, this 8+ year comparison clarifies just how inaccurate climate models can be when challenged by real-world climate observations.

The inaccuracy stems from the fact that climate models are based on the primary belief that CO2 emissions, from the combustion of fossil fuels, are the major force that produces global warming, which leads to "dangerous" climate change.

Thus, the climate models' dependency on CO2 - a trace greenhouse gas - is spectacularly evident when examining correlations, such as that depicted in chart #2.

The RCP8.5 scenario's model temperature anomaly variation is almost entirely explained (R² = 0.8698) by the increase in atmospheric CO2.

However, when the same correlation analysis is done with NOAA's real-world temperature anomalies, a much different result emerges.

Chart #3's scatter plot has an R² of 0.0000, which strongly indicates real climate temperatures are divorced from the additional CO2 being added to the atmosphere.

Yet, regardless of the above climate empirical facts, the UN chief and others continue to push the anti-science belief that every single molecule of the CO2 greenhouse gas causes more global warming.

And the result of this official CO2 fear-mongering propaganda is the situation where a vocal activist minority truly believes there exists a global #ClimateCrisis; a #ClimateEmergency; a #ClimateBreakdown; a #GlobalBoiling; #ClimateChaos; or even an #ExistentialThreat. (These Twitter 'X' hashtags confirm a wide range of CO2 paranoia, fringe fears, exaggerations and wild claims that are being generated from the official UN PR narrative.)

Additional global and regional temp charts.

Note: Excel used for all calculations and plotting. Source of NOAA monthly global temperature anomalies. Source for CMIP5 RCP8.5 model anomalies.  Source for CO2 monthly data. The correlation scatter plots x-axis represents the rolling 12-month total CO2 ppm growth, starting with the 12-month's growth prior to January 2015.

"Global Warming": California's Lawsuit Against Big Oil Suffers From Lack Of Actual Warming Trend

California's new lawsuit against Big Oil revolves around the state's allegation that oil executives knew that the CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels caused dangerous global warming. Except when it doesn't.

NOAA's climate monitoring network updates California's temperature measurements every month. And as the end of August 2023, California's average daily maximum temperatures for each month reveals there has been no warming trend since December 2010.

Zero warming trend in spite of the injection of approximately 400 billion metric tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere since 2010.

Visually, it's obvious that maximum temperatures have been in a decline mode for an extended period.

Plus, as the bottom chart reveals, there currently exists no correlation (R² < +0.01) between atmospheric CO2 levels and maximum temperatures.

With the lack of any recent empirical evidence that CO2 is producing a dangerous and rapid warming trend, the lawsuit would appear to be on very shaky ground in terms of scientific accuracy.

(click on to enlarge)

Interesting fact. NOAA reports that the month/year when California had its highest daily maximum average was way back in July 1931, well before the era of large industrial/consumer CO2 emissions.

Additional regional and global temperature charts.

Notes: Source of California maximum temperature data. Source of CO2 data. Excel used for all calculations & plots. The right axis of chart represents the monthly continuous accumulated increase of atmospheric CO2 ppm for the prior 12 months.

U.S. Maximum Historical Temperatures Versus August 2023 & Correlation With CO2

In regards to U.S. maximum temperatures, the first chart displays the historical maximum monthly temperature values for the United States as published by NOAA, similar to this prior article about historical precipitation. (Note that the August 2023 maximum temperature is shown as a green dot on the chart.)

And the bottom chart is a scatter plot for the last 60 years of monthly maximum temperature anomalies along with the corresponding monthly atmospheric CO2 levels.

The scatter plot includes a best fit regression line, which provides the basis for the strength of the relationship calculation (R² = +0.098) between the two variables, temperature anomalies and CO2 levels.

With the R² being a minuscule +0.098 for the 60-year period, it objectively indicates a nonexistent relationship between U.S. maximum temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels.

And since statistics demonstrate that CO2 levels have little effect on U.S. temperatures, it follows that emissions from the burning of fossil fuels into the atmosphere have little to no effect.

(click on to enlarge)

Note: Source for max temperature data; source for CO2 data. Excel used for all calculations and plotting.

Additional regional and global temperature charts.

U.S. Precipitation & CO2: August 2023 Versus Historical Record

The monthly historical climate records that NOAA maintains and updates each month indicates that current U.S. precipitation levels are in the mainstream of historical measurements.

Since the record precipitation (4.47 inches) of May 2019, the average monthly precipitation has been 2.54 inches versus the last 60-year's mean of 2.58 inches. (See top chart.)

The bottom chart is a scatter plot of monthly precipitation amounts and the corresponding monthly atmospheric CO2 levels. The plot includes a best fit regression line.

The R² of +0.004 between CO2 levels and precipitation amounts indicates that there is no relationship between these two climate variables over the last 60 years.

U.S. precipitation levels are a product of natural weather/climate patterns. They are not due to the burning of fossil fuels.

 

(click on to enlarge)

Local, state, & federal politicians that say CO2 emissions are the cause of large or small precipitation events are part of the problem -  they are $$$ hungry climate change grifters under the influence of special interests.

Note: Source for precipitation data; source for CO2 data. Excel used for all calculations and plotting.

Climate Reality Debunks Latest Antarctic Warming Hysteria

Climate researchers seem to be always producing studies that say the Antarctic is warming too fast and presents a catastrophic threat, and then news outlets blindly report the hype.

But as usual, the actual real-world Antarctic measurements disseminated by the professionals of climate monitoring debunk this latest hysteria that the fear-mongering Guardian is promoting.

Utilizing the NOAA surface and UAH lower troposphere datasets, both report a flat warming/cooling trend for 36+ years, since May 1987.

Besides these datasets popping the hyped-puffery of Antarctic "rapid" warming, they also confirm that "global" warming is not really global. There is indeed regional warming, but "global" infers the entire world, and that isn't accurate.

Just as in the Antarctic region, another example of the missing "global" warming is the U.S., which has experienced a very slight cooling trend since June 2011.

For both the Antarctic and the U.S., those stubborn facts keep getting in the way of the scary climate narrative.

Additional global and regional temp charts.

Whether It's A "Climate Crisis" Or A "Climate Boiling" Claim, Science Facts Refute The Hyperbole

There is scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric CO2 levels from fossil fuel combustion emissions will raise global temperatures but is there any scientific evidence that CO2 is causing a runaway, global warming tipping point that would result in an existential threat, a climate crisis, a climate emergency, a climate breakdown, climate boiling, or a collapse of civilization as a whole?

In order for the claimed tipping point of runaway warming from CO2 emissions to become reality, there are two characteristics that would be necessary:

A. There would need to be a significant correlation between increases in atmospheric CO2 and ensuing rapid acceleration of warming increases;

B. There would need to be a significant correlation between increases in atmospheric CO2 and consistent temperature increases of serious magnitude.

Both of these temperature characteristics would represent positive feedbacks of an unstable climate in action.

To determine if these positive feedbacks of accelerating warming and large magnitude temperature changes exist for our modern climate, NOAA temperature and CO2 data from the last 25 years can be used to establish the correlations for different time spans (moving 12-month, moving 60-month, moving 120-month and moving 180-month).

Along with the best fit linear regression lines, the relationship R²s are shown on the following 8 charts. The left column contains scatter plot charts revealing the relationship between warming acceleration and CO2 increases; and the right column has scatter plot charts that show the relationship between the magnitude of temperature changes and CO2 increases.

Over the four different time spans plotted for the entire 25 years since July 1998, the correlations for warming acceleration and large magnitude temperature changes are essentially very weak to non-existent, which indicates that increasing CO2 in the atmosphere has little impact on the climate.

Conclusion: The world and civilization are not a risk from the burning of fossil fuels that are claimed to be causing a global warming tipping point, or an existential threat, or a climate crisis, or a climate emergency. Such assertions are not supported by the real scientific data.

Additional global and regional temp charts.

Notes: Excel used for all calculations and plotting. Source of NOAA monthly global temperature anomalies. FTP link to download monthly CO2 levels.

The Current "Climate Emergency" Narrative: NOAA's Actual U.S. Maximum Temperatures Data Completely Debunks

Government officials and the mainstream legacy media continuously claim that the U.S. is experiencing a "climate emergency" because temperatures are rising due to CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use.

But the actual climate data from NOAA tells a different story—an empirical story that CO2 has little if any impact on U.S. temperatures.

(click on to enlarge)

The adjacent table of data shows each state's warmest month ever, based on the actual NOAA's max monthly temperatures.

And note that the vast majority of these state maximum temperatures took place before 1955, while only 15 states have experienced a 'maximum' month record during the 21st century.

While "global" warming has taken place over the last 30 years, it does not yet rival the record-setting warming that occurred earlier in the 20th century across wide swaths of the U.S.

The table also includes a correlation measurement (R²) that measures the strength of the relationship between a state's monthly maximum temperature anomalies and the cumulative atmospheric CO2 increases.

The R² measurements in the last column reveal an almost non-existent relationship between an increase of atmospheric CO2 and a state's maximum temperatures across 283 months (23 years + 7 months) of the 21st century.

If there was even a moderately positive relationship that suggests some causal effect between the two variables (CO2 increases and temperature anomaly increases), the R² measurement would need to be above +0.30 and certainly not negative, as eight states have experienced.

At the bottom of the table, the same information is listed for the entire U.S. Again, one finds that over the last 23+ years, CO2's impact on our nation's maximum temperatures borders on being negligible.

And the last entry in the table is for North America (the geographical land areas of Canada, the United States and Mexico as determined by NOAA) and reveals a strong commonality with all the U.S. states—CO2 is not the strong influence on temperatures as suggested by those supporting a narrative of

In summary, there is not a single U.S. state that has a "climate emergency" or a "climate boiling" condition that is a direct result of CO2 atmospheric increases causing rising temperatures.

At least for the U.S., any warming experienced by states in the 21st century is much more likely associated with multiple well-known and powerful natural climate variations.

Additional regional and global temperature charts.

Notes: Excel used for all calculations. R2 calculation is based on calculated correlation of maximum temperatures (for each state) and atmospheric CO2 increase for all months of 21st century thru July 2023. Source for U.S. maximum monthly temperatures for each state; NOAA does not report state records for Hawaii - used the NOAA Honolulu's maximum temp records; source for Washington D.C. maximum temperatures; source for North America's monthly average temperature anomalies (no maximum temps available); and source for monthly CO2 atmospheric levels.

2023 Hawaii Wildfires & Drought: Did CO2 Cause It To Rain Less On The Island of Maui?

In our first article about the recent Maui wildfires, we addressed the issue of whether "global boiling" climate change (aka global warming) due to CO2 growth was the cause of the devastating fires.

Per the NOAA empirical temperature data for Maui, the short answer is that CO2-induced global warming was not the culprit.

Besides the claim that Maui's temperature must have increased due to higher levels of atmospheric CO2, there is also the claim that the growth of CO2 in the atmosphere is to blame for the recent lack of Maui's rainfall.

Not surprisingly, the factual Kahului, Maui empirical evidence from NOAA scientific research does not support that claim either.

This chart plots Maui's monthly precipitation anomalies (monthly amounts above and below normal) and the twelve-month moving average of global atmospheric CO2 ppm levels. (Click on chart to enlarge.)

Visually, there does not appear to be any relationship between CO2 and rain.

And the statistics confirm that the visual intuitiveness is correct.

There is no cause and effect relationship (a R² that essentially is zero) between CO2 and precipitation anomalies over the extended period from 1954 through July 2023.

In addition, there is the claim that the current Maui drought, due to low precipitation levels, is unique, even historically unprecedented, due to recent "climate change".

For most people, the island of Maui is considered a lush paradise. But instead of that perception, in reality, many areas of Maui actually have the characteristics of a dry climate.

Historically for Kahului, Maui, its average annual rainfall of 16.6 inches is 4 inches less than that of Flagstaff, Arizona, which is considered a semi-arid climate. And the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico, in comparison, has an annual precipitation amount some 43 inches greater than Kahului, Maui. (The wildfire devastated town of Lahaina is located in an area even drier than Kahului.)

Maui has a yearly wet-season and a dry-season, each lasting approximately 6 months. During the dry-season (May–October), the rainfall falls to well below 1 inch monthly during the warmer spring and summer months.

The above chart includes a six-month average plot (dark blue) that reveals the seasonal precipitation cycle.

Note that the chart plots three distinct time spans of precipitation anomalies (the gaps in months/years are due to the absence of climate records for those months and years).

However, each time span reveals the seasonal cycle as well as extended periods of below-normal rainfall.

This next chart specifically compares the precipitation anomalies for Kahului from the period of January 1905 through July 1909 versus the period of January 2019 through July 2023.

(click on to enlarge)

Both of these time spans are considered drought periods with below-normal rainfall.

As shown on the chart, the plots of the six-month and 36-month running averages match very closely for each time span. In addition, the current period ending in July 2023 had an average monthly rainfall of 1.2 inches versus 1.1 inches for the 1905–1909 average.

Conclusions: Per the evidence, atmospheric CO2 levels do not have an impact on Maui's central-western region's precipitation amounts; the historical rainfall record establishes that the western and central parts of Maui are a dry climate prone to droughts due to low annual rainfall amounts; and, the current shortfall of precipitation is neither unique nor unprecedented in the least.

For explanations on the causes of the Maui wildfire disaster, read this article, this article, this article, and this article; and this research paper regarding Hawaii droughts.

Note: Source of precipitation data. Excel used for all calculations and the plotting of charts. NOAA's climate records for Maui Hawaii have multiple gaps in monthly data. The months with no climate data were not utilized in any calculations or plots. Lahaina, Maui does not have a NOAA weather/climate station. Instead NOAA relies on the climate station located at the Kahului Airport. Precipitation & temperature monthly averages are very similar: Lahaina and Kahului. Explanation of climate for Hawaii's multiple islands.

NOAA's Empirical Refutation of The UN's "Global Boiling" Propaganda

The United Nation's bureaucracy has unfortunately been a leading source of climate change misinformation and propaganda. The most recent example is the wildly false assertion by the UN secretary general, António Guterres, that the world has reached an era of "global boiling".

First, the global temperature currently hovers around 14.14 degrees Celsius, which is essentially 86 degrees below the UN's boiling propaganda statement.

Second, NOAA has just published the July USCRN temperature results that documents that the average temperature for July 2023 was significantly below the 2012 July temperature - below by +0.62°C. (Description of the USCRN gold-standard weather/climate reporting network.)

Not only is the July 2020 temperature below the July 2012 temp, the chart reveals that U.S. warming has actually experienced a declining trend for an extended period.

That very slight cooling trend is now stretching from the beginning of June 2011 through the end of July 2023. That's a total of 146 months (12+ years).

And that 12+ years consists of a correlation between monthly atmospheric CO2 levels and U.S. temperatures of -0.0093.

Yes, a negative correlation, which is forbidden to be spoken of by the climate narrative community.

Why? Because it totally contradicts the alarmist agenda that CO2 causes global warming (and now "global boiling") that the UN and others propagandize.

So, the global temperature is below '"boiling" by 86 degrees and NOAA's U.S. temperature data confirms a long-lasting cooling span - in combo, a complete refutation of the UN claims and all the others that report that anti-science nonsense.

Additional regional and global temperature charts.

Note: Source of USCRN temperature data. Excel used to calculate/plot chart data.

Climate Warming Doomsday Scenario: What, Me Worry? Part5

Should anyone worry about "global boiling" - the newest climate-porn phrase being used by the scientific illiterate?

There's good news: The answer is 'no'! In the real-world, there exists no factual evidence supporting the fantastical assertion that our world is boiling, which would obviously lead to a doomsday scenario.

Neither natural warming nor anthropogenic warming is creating an unstable climate that would be represented by accelerating temperature increases of greater and greater magnitude.

As these two charts of satellite climate measurements depict, global temperatures follow a change pattern of increasing/decreasing magnitudes over different time spans, similar to the pattern of accelerating and decelerating temperatures revealed by the chart accompanying the very first article of this series. 

The repeating pattern of temperature change is absolutely NOT a result of ever-increasing human CO2 emissions but instead of natural climate origins.

Visually, it is readily apparent that growing atmospheric CO2 levels are not associated with temperature changes.

To confirm that numerically, the average temperature change (i.e. black curve) has a low correlation with the increasing CO2 levels (i.e. green dots) that results in a barely positive R² of +0.002. For the bottom chart, the R² is +0.008.

Respectively, the monthly linear trend of the average temperature magnitude change for the top chart is flat-lined at a minuscule +0.00006; and for the bottom chart, it is an equally unimpressive, tiny +0.00013.

 

Literally, the long-term magnitude of these temperature changes is climatically insignificant.

What, me worry about "global boiling"? There is no need since the empirical evidence unequivocally debunks this.

Part1, Part2, Part3 & Part4 of 'What, me worry?' series.

Additional historical, global and regional temperature charts.

Notes: Excel used for all calculations and plots. Sources: Global satellite temp anomalies & CO2 levels.

Climate Warming Doomsday Scenario: What, Me Worry? Part4

The CAGW hypothesis calls for a rapid acceleration of global warming from human CO2 emissions, which is not taking place, based on the empirical evidence observed in 'Part#1' of the article series.

(click on to enlarge)

The hypothesis also calls for the temperature changes to become of greater magnitude due to positive feedback mechanisms initiated by the higher CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

However, that is not taking place either.

As this scatter plot reveals, over the last 30 years there is zero relationship - R² equals +0.003 - between atmospheric CO2 levels and subsequent 12-month temperature anomaly changes.

Note that the regression is negative instead of the predicted positive feedback result, which could be interpreted as CO2 increases causing smaller-magnitude temperature changes

Which leads us to the following: If the magnitude of global temperature increases is not associated with the growth of atmospheric CO2 levels from fossil fuel combustion, then claiming these emissions are causing a runaway climate warming, doomsday scenario, tipping-point is truly without serious scientific merit.

What, me worry?: Part1, Part2, & Part3. Additional historical, global and regional temperature charts.

Notes: Excel used for all calculations and plots. Sources: Global temp anomalies & CO2 levels.

Climate Warming Doomsday Scenario: What, Me Worry? Part3

Should the average person be worried about a global warming doomsday because of human CO2 emissions?

(click on to enlarge)

NOAA global temperature empirical evidence confirms that the hypothetical, strong correlation between CO2 atmospheric levels and temperatures is without merit over the recent past.

Rapidly accelerating towards a climate 'doomsday' from CO2 emissions is a scientific falsehood.

And that means the average person can completely ignore the climate hysteria propaganda.

What, me worry?: Part1 & Part2

Additional global and regional temp charts.

Notes: Excel used for all calculations and plots. Sources: Global temp anomalies & CO2 levels.

Climate Warming Doomsday Scenario: What, Me Worry? Part2

Remember when "journalists" claimed the U.S. was burning up and we needed to do something about it immediately?

USCRN, the recently implemented, gold-standard climate reporting and measurement system, now has updated results through June 2023. And it shows that June 2023 temp is below that of June 2005 after 18.5 years of humans releasing CO2 emissions.

Below is a map of U.S. that indicates the hottest temperature records for each state. 39 of the states hit their highest temp before 1960.

Source: https://twitter.com/ChrisMartzWX/status/1679544479458689024

The above information is an indication that the impact of huge human CO2 emissions has little regional climatic impact, which lends credence to other empirical evidence that the global impact is significantly less than claimed by climate alarmist advocates.

Thus, are Americans facing an imminent warming doomsday catastrophe from greenhouse gases? "What, me worry?" translates to 'NO', the evidence-based answer.

Additional regional and global temperature charts. Previous 'Those Stubborn Facts' postings.

The Empirical Evidence Is Overwhelming: Predicted Warming of Antarctica Is Baseless

Source: https://notrickszone.com/2022/11/03/dramatic-cooling-and-recent-ice-shelf-advance-in-the-antarctic-peninsula/

The adjacent article, regarding recent Antarctica Peninsula peer-reviewed studies, supports what NOAA's actual Antarctica empirical evidence indicates:

Antarctica has not been warming over the last 35 years, which is totally contrary to the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis.

Stated another way, since the late 1980s, the entire continent has experienced a very slight cooling trend.

It's another case of Those Stubborn Facts, that debunk all the climate models, which the climate "scientists" are unable to refute.

Global Warming Causes Headaches? But NOAA Evidence Indicates Zero Warming For 10+ Years

Another study with a bogus claim about CO2-caused global warming is debunked, by NOAA empirical evidence.

On average, for the multiple regions of the world that NOAA tracks and reports temperature changes for, there has been no global warming for 10.5 years (see second image - i.e. table).

Excluding the extended 35 years of no global warming in Antarctica, the average for the rest of the regional areas drops to 9.1 years.

From each region's pause 'Start Date, the table includes the correlation and r-squared between the region's temperature anomalies and NOAA's CO2 atmospheric CO2 levels.

(click on to enlarge)

The correlation derived r-squared(s) between CO2 and temperature anomalies is essentially ZILCH, across the board.

Unfortunately, like most "scientists" who attempt to blame global warming for something they identified as a problem, it seems they never do the requisite research to confirm that global warming is actually taking place.

Rest assured, your headaches are not from global warming.

Notes: Source of temperature anomalies & CO2 ppm data. Excel used for calculations and plotting.

Per NOAA's Climate Science: Antarctic's Cooling Trend Stretches From April 1988 Through April 2023

One of the very important climate temperature trends that NOAA omits from their never-ending, alarmist climate change PR is the fact that the Antarctic's warming has been at a standstill (numerically, a slight cooling trend) since early 1988.

(click on to enlarge)

That standstill spans 35+ years, despite the large growth of atmospheric CO2 levels during that period. And during that span, the correlation between Antarctic's temperature and atmospheric CO2 levels is actually negative (-0.00152), resulting in a r^2 of a ludicrously low 0.000002.

This outcome is entirely contrary to the "global" warming hypothesis that increasing CO2 will cause temperatures to rise, especially at the polar regions.

Because of their cultish belief in the hypothesis narrative, no "consensus" government-funded scientists predicted that the Antarctic would literally not have warmed during an extended period of high human CO2 emissions.

Additional regional and global charts. Additional failed predictions.

Notes: Antarctic temperature anomalies source; atmosphere CO2 levels source. Excel used to calculate trends, correlation, r^2 and to plot data.

Both U.S. Maximum & Average Temperatures On Slight Cooling Trend Since 2011

Is the world 'HOT' and 'BURNING UP' from human CO2 emissions that "cause" global warming?

Well, the U.S. climate didn't get the memo. Average and maximum surface temperature trends recorded by NOAA's USCRN, the world's state-of-the-art climate measurement system, reveal that both have bucked the global warming trend since the spring of 2011.

And both the max and avg April 2023 temperature anomalies are lower than what USCRN recorded in April 2005. (The USCRN system came online in January 2005.)

Does anyone (other than the MSM news) still believe the politicians and climate scientists shouting that climate doomsday is just around the corner?

For the record, NOAA reports that the globe has been on a cooling trend ('pause', if you prefer) since 2015.

(click on to enlarge)

The Real Climate Science Crisis: The Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW) Hypothesis Is Without Scientific Evidence

For a hypothesis to reach the status of being a legit theory, it requires withstanding the onslaught of observed empirical evidence. The CAGW hypothesis is no such animal.

Known by its more contemporary aliases, such as ''climate crisis," "climate emergency," "climate collapse," or "existential threat," the CAGW has zero empirical evidence to support it.

Unlike the related hypothesis regarding greenhouse gases (GHG) and global warming, at least the GHG hypothesis has warming global temperature data that somewhat coincides with increasing atmospheric CO2 levels, putting aside the growing possibility that the purported cause-and-effect direction is probably the reverse.

In order to reach a CAGW climate disaster, global warming temperatures must change rapidly in an accelerating manner that will initiate a 'tipping point' for the climate.

The rapid acceleration would present its occurrence in a continuous increasing of the slope, i.e., trend, of temperatures, such as monthly temperatures. Each subsequent month would represent a greater temperature magnitude increase than the month before, hypothetically.

(click on to enlarge)

But those tipping point precursors are not occurring in the real-world climate.

For example, it is agreed by all climate scientists that oceans play a very major role in the world's climate and its global temperatures due to their being both the world's largest carbon sink and its largest heat content storage.

However, despite these characteristics, in totality, the global oceans HAVE NOT warmed since the year 2014. And certainly, there is no empirical evidence that oceans exhibit constant temperature increases of magnitude.

Quite the contrary, combined oceans exhibit a regular pattern of temperature decreases and increases, as the adjacent plot of NOAA's monthly ocean data indicates.

Specifically, this is a plot (dark blue) of moving 5-year temperature changes ending each month of the 60-year period from March 1963 through March 2023.

[Explanation: the first data point is the temperature change for the 60 months ending on March 30, 1963; and the chart's last temperature change data point is for the five 5 years (i.e. 60 months) ending on March 2023.]

The chart also includes a plot (green) of the moving 60-month CO2 level changes over the same sixty year period, plus a linear trend for both CO2 changes and ocean temperature changes.

The trend of the 60-month CO2 changes significantly exceeds the slight positive trend of ocean temperature changes by a factor of 117x. This huge differential undercuts the belief that global warming is primarily the result of GHGs. Which is confirmed by the paltry R^2 of +0.06 - an almost non-existent relationship between 5-year atmospheric CO2 changes and 5-year changes in ocean temperature.

Not only are the large increases in CO2 levels not causing a concerning uptick of temperature change magnitude, it also has not lead to any type of acceleration, per the linear trend since 1963.

Specifically, with a trend of a tiny +0.0001°C, that would project out 20 years to be an increase of 5-year temperature changes to an insignificant amount of +0.024 - definitely not an existential threat of 'runaway warming' or a CAGW 'climate crisis' as portrayed by bureaucrats, politicians and Hollywood celebrities.

So, if 5 years of increasing amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere barely influence 5-year changes in temperature over a 60-year span, either in magnitude or acceleration rate, then it is highly unlikely that this trace gas would cause a catastrophic climate disaster or an extinction event.

Thus, it is fair to state that for all those scientists pushing a narrative of an imminent climate change catastrophe from CO2 without the requisite empirical evidence, this has become the real climate science crisis facing society.

Additional global and regional temperature charts.

Notes: Temperature and CO2 data sources.Excel used to calculate 60-mth (5-yr) temperature and CO2 changes; used to calculate the respective trends; used to calculate correlation and r-squared; used to plot the chart.

Lack of U.S. Climate Warming Now Extends Beyond 9 Years

Contradicting the narrative: Below is a chart that the legacy mainstream media will not be reporting on and the crony "green" politicians will simply ignore.

Per NOAA, U.S. temperatures have been on a slight cooling trend since February 2014.

Despite atmospheric CO2 levels increasing 5.2% (≈+22.0 ppm) during that time, there has been no overall U.S. warming over the last 9 years and 2 months.

The global doomsday existential threat that many politicians and reporters claim to be taking place is somehow conveniently avoiding the nation with the world's best climate reporting system. Go figure.

Source of USCRN temperature data and CO2. Excel used to calculate and plot trends.

NOAA: U.S. Historical Droughts 1895-2022

Contrary to current climate crisis narrative, the U.S. suffered worse droughts in the past.

1934 U.S. drought conditions: In May 1934 peaked at 44% of land under severe drought conditions.

2022 U.S. drought conditions: In July 2022 peaked at 21% of land under severe drought conditions.

NOAA source for drought charts.

Additional severe weather charts.

Non-Existent Climate "Control Knob": Global Warming & CO2 Levels

The CO2 "control knob" for global warming is a mythical concept without empirical merit.

Note: NOAA temperature anomalies source; NOAA CO2 source; Excel used to plot datasets, calculate trend and r-squared.

Additional global; regional; and historical temperature charts.

Stuck On Stupid & Insanity At Davos: 600k Hiroshima Bombs/Day From Fossil Fuels Cause Oceans To Boil

The annual Davos' WEF confab of elites has a history of off-the-wall to sheer lunacy about the supposed catastrophic climate change crisis.

And Al Gore wins the WEF 2023 lunacy gold for his claim that humanity produces 600k of Hiroshima-sized atomic atmospheric warming explosions on a DAILY basis, thus the "oceans are boiling," according to the former VP. (Watch him here.)

But as it always seems to be the case, the empirical evidence does not match up even a smidgen with the fantastical catastrophe claims made by doomsday elites. In fact, the oceans have been ever so slightly cooling over the past 8-9 years despite the billions of CO2 tonnes emitted from human fossil fuel combustion.

The below first chart plots the temperature anomalies for the tropical oceans surrounding Hawaii, as reported by NOAA for year-end 2022; the second NOAA chart is for the Gulf of Mexico; and the third NOAA chart is for all oceans.

To put Gore's lunacy in perspective, sea waters would boil at around 105°C. The hottest that Gulf of Mexico and Hawaiian sea waters reach in a given year ranges from 26-28°C, and the highest the global ocean average ranges from 17-18°C. The oceans are not boiling from CO2 emissions and will never do so.

Note: NOAA temperature anomalies source; Excel used to plot the anomalies and calculate the trends. For the record, former NASA climate "expert" James Hansen made similar "boiling ocean" comments but it proved to be so embarrassing to the climate science community that YouTube deleted it. But you can still watch it here.

Additional global; regional; and historical temperature charts.

Climate Change Exists. Listen To The Science. Don't Be A Denier. Trust The Experts: Facts Matter

Climate change is a happening across the globe. But often in unexpected ways, per the below indisputable empirical evidence - i.e. facts matter - from experts. Eight years and counting.

And since we are speaking of climate change that is constantly taking place, all of the above could switch back to warming in a very short period, or NOT. 

By the way, which top climate expert predicted the above 8 years ago?

Global Cooling: An Inconvenient Truth

Per the IPCC's own gold-standard for temperature measurements, the globe has been cooling since August 2014. The world's tropical oceans are cooling since September 2012 (also confirmed by the UAH satellite dataset).

Regardless of the actual scientific empirical evidence, legacy media, politicians and corrupted science will continue to claim that the world is warming at a rapid pace due to human CO2 emissions.

Joe Biden & The Doomsday Democrats: Anti-Fossil Fuel Extremists Who Ignore NOAA's Real World Climate Evidence

Rarely does a day pass without the Biden administration or some Congressional Democrat spewing scientific nonsense about our supposedly current global warming "existential" threat from fossil fuel CO2 emissions. But the latest empirical evidence and research does not support the Democrat doomsday narrative.

Way back in January 2005, the empirical evidence started rolling in from NOAA's USCRN project - the U.S. state-of-the-art climate reporting system - designed with the sole purpose of identifying climate change signals. The good news is that this land-based system has the best monthly temperature observations versus any other system currently used across the globe.

However, the bad news for the disaster-porn press and Democrats is that NOAA's USCRN datasets show no doomsday signal. This NOAA chart from January 2005 through August 2022 clearly reveals that there is no signal of any global warming existential threat that Democrats keep yammering about as a "clear & present" danger to Americans.

By using the USCRN's own data, one can measure and plot the rolling 60-month temperature changes to determine if CO2 emissions are causing monthly temperature changes to increase, which would fit the Democrats' narrative.

Instead, the scientific empirical evidence reveals that the rolling 60-month temperature changes are actually declining, not increasing as experts want the public to believe.

In addition, by using NOAA's monthly atmospheric CO2 readings, it provides undeniable proof that the correlation between the 60-month temperature changes and the 60-month rolling averages of atmospheric CO2 levels is highly suspect, bordering on non-existent. (In fact, there is a negative correlation between the two resulting in a R² of 0.002.)

Besides the increasing temperature changes claimed by Democrat "experts", they claim that temperatures are rapidly accelerating higher, thus supposedly proving their existential threat beliefs. Instead - yet again - the USCRN empirical evidence of temperature trends counter that cult-like belief. 

In an examination of rolling 60-month temperature trends on the below chart, it is critically non-ambiguous that temperature trends change constantly in both amount and direction over time; and, categorically proves there is no established current positive correlation with the ever-increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. (Again, the R² between the two variables is ludicrously tiny.)

And the trend (red linear line) of the of the rolling 60-Mth trends confirms the direct opposite of what Joe Biden and the Democrats say and what the MSM reports. If fossil fuel CO2 emissions actually had the impact on global temperatures as claimed, the trend would be significantly upward sloping.

The following chart depicts the actual cooling trend that the U.S. has experienced since April 2014 - 8+ years. And the cooling trend is not just the U.S. Both NOAA's global temperature dataset and its ocean dataset are in cooling trends over the same time period. In addition, both major satellite (RSS and UAH) climate measurement systems report global lower atmospheric cooling trends since 2014.

Yet, Biden's Democrats, the MSM press, and the bought agenda "scientists" ignore all of the above unmistakable, scientific evidence that refutes their CO2 global warming doomsday narrative.

Additional regional and global temp charts.

Notes: The cooling trends noted (or extended 'pause' if one prefers) are not climate significant other than in the context that politicians mislead the public by conveniently ignoring the real world evidence and saying the opposite is true. The top chart is sourced from NOAA's national temperature web site, which is also the source for all the monthly temperature data used in the remaining charts above. Monthly CO2 data sourced from this NOAA site. Excel was used to plot the data; to calculate the correlations, rolling trends, averages, and the linear trends. The top chart of monthly USCRN temperature anomalies has an R2 of 0.03 in regards to the monthly atmospheric CO2 ppm levels.

Democrats' New Climate & Green Energy Legislation Has Zilch Impact On Climate Change, Per The UN's Science

Biden and the Democrats' newest legislation is chockful of handouts for their green energy cronies donors that will have a "significant" impact on global warming, or so say the Democrats.

But when this legislation is analyzed by experts, using the UN's own climate models, the CO2 emission reductions will only - in a best case scenario - reduce total global temperatures an immeasurable 0.0002°C by the year 2100 (77 years from now); and, the more likely worst case scenario will reduce global temps by a ludicrously small amount - 0.000006°C.

This column chart plots these expected temperature reductions on a per year basis versus actual per year temperature changes for recent periods, including the per year change over the last 77 years.

And for even all the politicians who refuse to do the due diligence of analyzing their own legislation - and instead rely on bogus claims from lobbyists - it should be wildly obvious that their giveaways of taxpayer monies for "green" energy efforts will do zilch for the climate.

Unfortunately, this gigantic flush of $400 billion in taxpayer monies for such a miniscule real return on climate change is only the beginning for the Democrat climate cult.

This article points out that the crazies need at least 1,200,000,000,000,000 in taxpayer dollars or ONE QUADRILLION TWO HUNDRED TRILLION DOLLARS in order to be on a very speculative path to their utopian climate. That amount is 13 times larger than the entire global GDP.

Crazy Democrat climate-cultists, anyone?

Additional global and regional charts.

Since Oct 2014 Humans Emit 230+ Billion Tonnes of CO2 Emissions But Atmosphere Temps Do Not Increase

Per the 'consensus' climate model science - and its faithful apostles - a gigantic CO2 emission plume produced by civilization is supposed to increase global temperatures, especially in the lower atmosphere.

But quite the opposite has happened over the past 7 years and 9 months when some 230 billion CO2 tonnes were expelled from fossil fuel combustion.

More specifically, the global lower troposphere has been in a very slight cooling trend since October 2014; and the atmosphere over the tropics for about a year longer.

Using a combination average of the two primary (RSS and UAH) satellite global measurement datasets, the below plot shows the declining trend in temperatures in contrast to the growth of atmospheric CO2 levels reported by NOAA. (The R² of the temp anomalies and CO2 ppm levels doesn't exceed +0.01, indicating that CO2 has had little, if any, influence on recent global warming/cooling.)

 

 

Utilizing the same combined average dataset, the moving 5-year changes in temperature anomalies can be calculated, as well as the 5-year changes in NOAA's dataset of CO2 levels. The below chart very clearly shows a distinct declining trend of the 5-year temperature changes while the trend of the 5-year changes in CO2 levels is increasing. (The R² for the 5-year changes is not a very robust +0.20.)

 

 

Finally, the next chart plots for both the temperature anomalies and CO2 levels the moving 5-year trends. Essentially, the temperature plot exhibits a trend that continues to decline over the vast majority of months since 2014. And it's very obvious the moving 5-year CO2 trend over the 7 years, 9 month span is absolutely not driving the temp trend. (The R² between the two is a measly +0.05.)

 

 

None of the above tells us that the current global cooling will continue. Like anything else with the global climate, this current state has a high likelihood of changing - that's a given.

But the above does tell us that the globe and civilization are not on some out-of-control freight train headed towards the cliff of an imminent system-wide doomsday meltdown. Not-Going-To-Happen would be a safe bet without one having to cross their fingers.

Conclusion: Politicians/bureaucrats who state there is an imminent existential threat from CO2 induced global warming and climate change are best thought of as flat-out liars, based on the actual scientific climate data.

Note: Source for RSS and UAH temperature data; source for NOAA CO2 data. Excel used to calculate combine RSS/UAH monthly temp anomalies average, trends; and used to plot the data.

Additional global temperature charts.

Those Stubborn Facts: Per NOAA, Global Cooling Since 2014 Refutes Politicians' Cult Of The 'CO2 Control Knob'

As Joe Biden considers a ludicrous "national climate emergency" and the hysterical climate-porn doomers are getting even more hysterical about a summer heat wave, the most recent NOAA climate data show the world cooling since the end of December 2014 (NOAA's temperature anomalies chart).

(click on to enlarge)

If Joe Biden and Democrats think they can control heat waves by reducing CO2 emissions, they might first check the actual empirical evidence as to the possible efficacy of that.

For example, the correlation of global temperature anomalies and atmospheric CO2 levels is a negative 0.20 (yes, a -0.20 correlation) over the 90 months since December 2014. 

Essentially, per NOAA science, imbecilic politicians need to finally realize there is no magical CO2 control knob that bureaucrats can twist and turn to produce desired short and intermediate-term climate and temperature results. Seasonal weather outcomes are NOT controlled by CO2.  

Note: More specifically, regarding the current cooling trend, it actually started in April 2014 per NOAA's global (land & ocean) monthly dataset.

Additional modern and regional temperature charts.

U.S. Govt Debunks Biden & AOC's Disinformation Claims of The Global Warming Existential Threat

NOAA's updated global oceans temperature dataset through June 2022 reveals slight cooling (ZERO warming) since the end of 2013 for the world's oceans.

 

(click on to enlarge)

Democrats' assault-policies on fossil fuels by hyperbolic lies and disinformation propaganda are without any empirical evidence merit.

Principal Democrat climate disinformation propagandists: Joe Biden and Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (AOC).

Note: NOAA ocean temperature dataset

 

The RCP8.5 Global Warming Scenario Versus Actual Cooling: Climate Model Misinformation That Duped Biden & Other Elites

In a prior article, information was provided confirming that the young Democrat Congressperson, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, should not be in the climate-doomsday prediction business.

Unfortunately, she is not alone in her uncritical acceptance of a cult-like claim that the world will end soon, due to 'devastating' global warming from human CO2 emissions. This cult includes Joe Biden, along with most of the globe's left-wing power brokers, the wealthy elites, celebrities and partisan journalists.   

Biden et al share the same necessary traits that produces a gullibility for cultish doomsday stories: namely, the total disdain of actual empirical evidence in combination with an extraordinary blind faith in the elites' experts - aka, the expertocracy.

And just like the experts' recent infamously wrong Covid infection/lockdown models, the climate expertocracy loves their own climate models, despite the models' continuous failure to predict global temperatures accurately.

Case in point, the climate RCP8.5 scenario pathway was generated by computer models (specifically, the CMIP5 model) that the expertocracy relies on for their climate-porn fearmongering.

The climate-porn takes many forms in their scary stories of highly speculative climate change impacts, with the end result always being that any global warming is an existential threat to all species, including humanity.

This absurdly wrong but highly favored scenario for global warming is plotted in the accompanying chart. Note the RCP8.5 model's linear trend versus reality, the HadCrut5.0 gold-standard of actual global temperature observations.

While the RCP8.5 scenario predicts nothing but an accelerating warming trend for the 21st century, the HC5 observation dataset plot in contrast reveals that the globe has experienced a cooling trend for almost 8 years since August 2014. (And NOAA's global temp dataset has been on a cooling trend since March 2014 through end of June 2022.)

By the way, this is not the only cooling trend in the 21st century. The HC5 dataset has recorded at least six separate occasions since 1999 (representing 40% of the months) when there was a rolling 36-month cooling trend of multiple months. In contrast, the climate expert modeled RCP8.5 scenario produced zero periods of a 36-month cooling tend.

Back to the August 2014-May 2022 cooling span.

Another characteristic of the modeled RCP8.5 scenario over the 94 months ending May 2022 is that it exhibits a monthly average anomaly change of +0.00271°C versus the HC5 average monthly anomaly change of only +0.00029°C. That is a 9 times per month larger outcome for the modeled scenario than the HC5's real world result.

If those average monthly changes for both were to continue for the next 100 years, the RCP8.5 result would hypothetically be 2.9°C degrees higher than the HC5.  

Yet, despite the above empirical science clearly indicating the incapacity of the RCP8.5 model to produce a reasonable representation of either global warming or global cooling trends, the uniformed elites continue to base future policy decisions on this model. This is especially true for the president of the United States and the vast majority of Democrats in Congress.

Why they continue to rely on obviously faulty computer models for climate/energy policy - or Covid policy for that matter - beggars belief.

An interesting article from 2015 regarding the RCP8.5 scenario.

An aside. Defenders of climate model output often fall back on the rationale that the models worked almost to perfection to predict past temperatures. Well, of course they did, due to the simple fact that the programmers knew in advance what the past temperatures were. But when the the models have to predict an uncertain future they do not fare well.

Case in point is the RCP8.5, which was introduced in 2013 and predicted past temps amazingly well. But by late 2014, the model results were starting to deviate consistently from actual observations. That explains why in reality we have an actual cooling trend from Sept 2014 to May 2022 while the RCP8.5 predicted the exact opposite.

Note: RC8.5 model scenario dataset; HC5 dataset. Excel used to calculate and plot linear trends.

What Existential Threat? Climate Doomers Are Ignorant That Climate Change History Repeats

Today's climate change doomers who preach that global warming from the highest atmospheric CO2 levels in modern times is leading to an existential threat of catastrophic and world-ending disasters are most definitely not well versed in real world climate history.

The past extreme climate events in the U.S. are noteworthy as examples of past climate change that rival any events occurring in the 21st century. Take the case of 1934.

In the first 6 months of 1934, the U.S. was suffering from a severe drought of little precipitation across a wide area of the contiguous states.

And the current lack of 2022 YTD precipitation, as documented by NOAA below, looks eerily similar.

Despite the similarity, the 1934 drought event suffered from a lack of precipitation that was at least 2.2 times more intense (when comparing precipitation anomalies) than the current 2022 event. The 1934 YTD period was the 2nd driest ever, while the 2022 YTD ranks only as the 23rd driest.

Yet, the more intense 1934 period event took place under a condition of atmospheric CO2 levels that was significantly lower than today's level.

Unfortunately, those that are in charge of U.S. climate and energy policies will remain ignorant of the way that climate history repeats itself, thus guaranteeing their polices will be an abject failure.

Prior article one and article two regarding: "What Existential Threat?".

What Existential Threat? Climate Is In A Constant State of Change, From One Extreme To Another

Why do politicians think the climate was ever "stable" in the past? When you have the likes of Pres. Joe Biden(D) and Sen. Mitt Romney(R) believing that, one realizes the world's elites are really stupid. That's truly scary, not constant natural climate change.

 

Chart source - NOAA. (click on chart to enlarge)

What Existential Threat?: US Temps Cooling Since 2014

Journalists' and Democrats' EXISTENTIAL threat of climate change: They must be very afraid of cooling temperatures, eh?

 

Plot of the precision USCRN climate stations as reported by NOAA. 

Despite warm June 2022 temperatures across much of the U.S., the overall cooling trend continues from March 2014.

It does make one wonder sometimes if human CO2 emissions cause temperatures to decline instead of the experts' predicted global warming.

Note: USCRN dataset. Excel used to plot and calculate linear and 6th degree polynomial trends

 

AOC's 'World Ending' Prediction vs Climate Reality: How Do They Compare?

Most will remember Democrat superstar Alexandria Ocasio Cortez's famous prediction that she stated during a January 2019 interview. It's now been 40 months since her prediction that in 12 years the world will end - 2131AD - from climate change.

And how has her prediction fared against reality?

In an attempt to be somewhat charitable to the Congressperson, her knowledge of climate reality and her prediction prowess are rather suspect to say the least.

Below are a series of five temperature charts that plot global temperatures the 40 months prior to her prediction, and the 40 months since her prediction, plus single atmospheric CO2 chart.

This first chart is a plot of global monthly temperature anomalies and linear trends for both the HadCrut 5.0 land/ocean surface areas and the UAH 6.0 atmosphere satellite global area. The timeframe for this chart is from Oct 2015 through the end of January 2019, which represents the 40 months prior to AOC's prediction.

This next chart plots the same temperature anomalies but for a different timeframe - the 40 months since her prediction (February 2019 through May 2022).

The third chart in the series looks similar to the first two, but instead of plotting the actual monthly anomalies, this chart plots the 12-month differences - i.e. change - between anomalies. For example, the difference between the October 2015 anomaly and that of October 2016; then the difference between November 2015 and that of November 2016; and so on. The timeframe for this chart is from October 2015 and January 2019.

This fourth chart is the same as the above third chart but with a different timeframe, February 2019 - May 2022 (the 40 months after her prediction).

The last temperature anomaly chart in the series is for the full 80 months of anomalies from October 2015 through May 2022.

Lastly, the following chart depicts the NOAA monthly atmospheric CO2 levels (ppm) for the full 80 months ending May 2022. In contrast to the declining global temperature trends, clearly the CO2 levels continue to increase at a monotonous pace.

Conclusion: Based on the empirical evidence, the world is not going to end by 2031AD. Unless one is concerned with the overall global cooling trend, it is irrational and illogical to even suggest that global warming from CO2 emissions poses an existential threat to humanity or civilization in the near/intermediate future. Those establishment elites who continue to utter this type of climate nonsense should be summarily thrown on the ash heap of anti-science liars. 

Note: Excel used to calculate/plot all measurements and linear trends. One extra chart can be found in comments. As of 6/29/22, the May 2022 HadCrut 5.0 temperature dataset still has not been published, as a result a May HC5 anomaly estimate of +0.74 was used.

The Last 30 Years U.S. Climate Warming: It's Not Unprecedented. It's Not A Crisis

Various institutions, politicians, bureaucrats, scientists, and legacy mainstream news outlets have long been trying to convince Americans that we are facing an existential crisis because of unprecedented climate warming - due to our lifestyle's CO2 emissions. Yet Americans remain skeptical, and for good reason.

The below chart (and the other two) is produced by NOAA's 'Climate At A Glance' site. It documents that the U.S. has experienced a warming climate since 1895.

Overall, our 48-state continental area has warmed at a non-existential "crisis" rate of 1.61°F per century.

The majority of warming appears to have occurred during the winter months (bottom spikes on chart), especially since the late 1970s. The warming of summer months (top spikes on chart) seems much less obvious in contrast.

(click on to enlarge)

This next chart displays the warming trend (blue line) for the last 30-year period ending December 31, 2021. The last 30 years have exhibited considerably more warming with a trend per century rate of +5.4°F. Surely this must be the "unprecedented" warming that threatens all Americans with a civilization-ending climate disaster!

But hold on. Despite all the predictions, proclamations, and protestations that the U.S. and Americans face utter ruin from this recent upsurge in warming, the empirical evidence from the scientists at NOAA shows indisputably that the recent 30-year warming is not unprecedented. This level of warming has happened before.

This below chart displays the warming trend from 1912 through 1941 - as calculated by NOAA - which confirms the past warmed at a faster pace than the recent warming - +6.12°F per century rate versus the +5.54°F rate. Important note: Our society did not collapse, nor did our ancestors die off in droves as a result.

And this faster warming period, ending in 1941, took place during a time when CO2 atmospheric levels increased an anemic 11ppm versus the robust 61ppm increase for the 30-year period ending in 2021. That's a 5-times difference, suggesting that the actual CO2 emission-warming factor is not the dominant climatic influence claimed by the doomsday alarmists.

While a high warming trend at any given date might seem dangerous to the average politician or a mainstream news script reader, it is in reality not the case, since short-term accelerating trends always revert to a short-term decelerating trends. It is this natural ebb and flow of warming and cooling that maintains a very stable climate.

For example, per NOAA, at the end of 1941 there existed a +6.12°F trend that would have produced a +4.9°F warming by the end of 2021, if it continued on uninterrupted from climate cooing periods. Instead, the average U.S. temperature increased by +1.9°F for that 80-year span of time. (Within 6 months of the end of 1941, the 5-year U.S. temperature trend had dropped to a minus 21.3°F.)

Conclusion: The known empirical evidence indicates Earth has been warming since the end of the Little Ice Age. The warming has frequently been interrupted by periods of flat and/or cooling temperatures. As documented by NOAA climate scientists, the recent 30-year warming is not unprecedented. Nor does the current warming present an existential crisis or threat to Americans since future climatic patterns, oscillations, and cycles will very likely temper or reverse temperature increases.

Global Warming Acceleration Proves NOT To Be An Existential Threat, Per The Empirical Evidence

(click on chart to enlarge)

Global warming is the grand bugaboo for all catastrophic climate change alarmists. In reality, though, this existential threat is without science merit.

For decades, the alarmists have predicted that there is an existential threat because temperatures are rapidly increasing due to human CO2 emissions. Their belief is that global temperatures are accelerating towards a 'tipping point' that will be civilization ending ..... and very soon, they say.

But, as this chart of accelerating/decelerating temperature trends reveals, not much has changed in a climate significant, long-term manner, due to the feared increase in atmospheric CO2.

(As an aside, it was in 1988, when NASA first presented the "existential" threat concept to gullible politicians.)

In a nutshell, global temperatures will accelerate - and then decelerate - regardless of the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. As can be observed, the 12-month per century temperature trend is extremely volatile, yet the 240-month (20-year) trend is relatively stable in contrast.

When viewed in context, the empirical evidence clearly demonstrates that the wild extreme swings in acceleration/deceleration for short-term temp trends does not translate into a wildly rapid acceleration of longer-term temperature trends.

And for further context, the current 20-year trend is at 1.46°C, which is significantly lower than the 2.43°C 20-year trend established way back in February 2004.

Yes, despite all the hair-pulling hysteria about the many multiple gigatonnes of CO2 emitted, the 20-year warming trend decreased by some 40% over the last 17 years.

Therefore, without that rapid acceleration of longer-term temperature trends, the existential threat of a climate tipping point is non-existent.

If the existential threat is non-existent, when should a potential climate tipping point become an issue of greater scrutiny and of serious debate?

Well, maybe when the aqua 240-month (20-year trend) trend starts rapidly increasing and then surpassing the red line (6.4°C) on the chart, which represents the minimum constant per century trend required every single month (from August 1, 2021 thru December 31, 2099) to produce a 5°C increase in global temps by 2100.

 

Notes: Excel was used for all slope calculations and then plotting of trends on chart. Green CO2 line on chart represents the CO2 atmospheric level cumulative growth (in ppm units) over time. Data sources: Modern CO2 levels & historical levels. UK's HadCrut4.6 monthly global temps.

IPCC's Gold-Standard Temperature Data: Last 7.25 Years World Has Been Cooling

(click on chart to enlarge)

The UK's global land and ocean dataset of temperature measurements confirms there has been a 7 year and 3 month span of cooling, as of the end of month, June 2021. Plus, the correlation between the global temps and atmospheric CO2 levels is negative for that period: -0.036

This is totally contrary to what politicians and crony-green capitalists have claimed, and also what "experts" have predicted.

Why are so many in the establishment's elite class wrong?

Simply, it's cult like anti-science belief in an unproven hypothesis that human CO2 emissions cause global warming that results in civilization-ending climate change. Or, they believe that the unproven hypothesis is a means to higher taxes and greater control over the masses.

Take your pick.

 

Prior global cooling article regarding NOAA's confirmation of a world not warming.

Additional temperature charts.

Notes: The UN's IPCC has relied on the UK's HadCRUT4 near surface temperature data as the gold-standard of empirical global-warming measurements for years. Excel used to plot the datasets & to calculate the trend/correlation. Sources of HC4 global temp data and CO2 data.

NOAA's Empirical Evidence Confirms The World Has Not Warmed Over Last 6+ Years

Does the world only have 100 days before it's too late to save Earth from global warming and climate change per 'climate czar' John Kerry's recent claim? Nope.

NOAA's up-to-date empirical climate evidence debunks that hyperbolic claim easily.

Unfortunately, as the public has discovered with the multitude of claims and exaggerations that have been wrong about the Covid disease over the last 18 months, similarly, politicians, bureaucrats and climate "experts" have been stupendously wrong - for decades - with their false predictions that fossil fuel CO2 emissions will soon cause the end-of-the-world, as we know it.

While the world's climate has exhibited a warming trend since the end of the Little Ice Age, the warming has not been constant. There are scattered throughout the decades actual extended cooling periods that retrace the prior warming.

In fact, since 2014, multiple NOAA temperature datasets confirm that the world has been cooling over the last six years, as of June 2021.

At this point, it's noteworthy to mention that today's government and academia climate experts, and their models, are unable to anticipate or explain these extended cooling periods, since their hypothesis of never-ending rapid warming due to human CO2 emissions has not matched well with climate reality. 

Below are the charts using NOAA's own climate empirical evidence confirming cooling trends that are now over six years in length.

First up, NOAA's global land and ocean temperature. From August 2014 through June 2021, there exists a cooling trend.

(click on chart to enlarge)

Next, NOAA's global ocean temperature measurements. From March 2014, there exists a cooling trend.

Next, NOAA's global land temperature measurements. From November 2014, there exists a cooling trend.

Next, NOAA's U.S. temperature measurements. From March 2014, there exists a cooling trend.

Finally, the UAH satellite (NOAA partners with UAH) lower troposphere satellite measurements. From March 2015, there exists a cooling trend.

 

To make it clear, the above documented cooling trends cannot be extrapolated into the future. However, that these trends exist runs counter to the consensus orthodoxy science; and, the trends belie the belief that there is a high correlation between the hypothetical atmospheric CO2 control knob and temperatures.

For the record, the actual correlations are significantly low for each NOAA temperature dataset, ranging from a -0.0511 to 0.0176. These stubborn facts completely debunk the mythical "control knob" that bureaucrat scientists would be able to utilize in order to manage climate change.

Conclusion: The NOAA empirical evidence is undeniable. The world is currently not warming and the liars' claim that a soon-to-be climate catastrophic collapse for humanity is total bunk.

 

Notes: Excel used to plot the datasets & to calculate the trends/correlations. Sources of NOAA temp data, UAH temp data and CO2 data.

Does The Level of Atmospheric CO2 Cause Climatic-Weather Extremes? Nope!

(click on to enlarge)

The real world, scientific empirical evidence simply does not support the anti-science, fringe claims that the trace gas CO2 is directly responsible for extreme weather events.

And yet, with the recent very hot temperatures hitting the U.S. Pacific Northwest region, the usual fear-mongering suspects will claim that these new temperature records are a result of dangerous global warming from CO2 fossil fuel emissions.

While temperature records will be set in 2021, the fact remains that recent temp records are not a new thing. NOAA scientists have documented past extreme temperature records (and precipitation records too) in all U.S. states going back to the 1890s.

There is a long history of new extremes and events regardless of the levels of atmospheric CO2.

As the adjacent chart reveals, our 21st century of record-setting temperature and precipitation events are not extreme when put in the context of of past climate change and global warming records for the U.S. Note that the 10-year average for both is less than once per year.

Visually, it is more than obvious that increasing CO2 levels is not the cause of dangerous climate tipping points, be it new temperature or new precipitation records. And statistically, the r-squared's provide the empirical evidence that the impact of CO2 on record-setting climate/weather events is laughably small, if any.

This does not change the fact that the world is warming and has been since the mid-1800's. But as far as CO2 producing climatic-change weather events that will end the world in the near future remains without any empirical merit.

It's another case of those stubborn facts that climate alarmists hate.

Note: Source of state records

NOAA Debunks Biden's Administration Basis For The Green New Deal - Global Temperatures Are in Decline

NOAA's database of global temperature observations confirm that the Trump administration policies did not cause an increase in global warming, much to the chagrin of Democrats and their climate experts.

(click on to enlarge)

Instead, at the end of 2020 there existed a 5-year cooling trend - for both land and ocean - that has extended into the first two months of 2021.

This lengthy cooling trend essentially debunks the need for the Biden 'Green New Deal' since the purported climate existential threat, emergency, crisis, apocalypse and/or extinction menace does not exist.

The empirical evidence from government agency cannot be more clear: dangerous, rapid global warming from human CO2 is without any merit.

Additional global and regional "warming" charts.

Note: Charts produced at this NOAA climate site.

 

CO2 Emissions: Why Transnational Government Agencies Are Unable To Control CO2

It's not difficult to determine why the UN and their climate change agreements always fail to reduce the growth of CO2 emissions.

Until the Chinese Communist Party decides to respect the global environment and all of humanity, the likelihood of any future climate agreement being successful is a '1' on a 1 to 1-billion scale.

Are U.S. Climate Temperatures Accelerating To New Highs?

The much touted climate Armageddon by politicians, which is supposed to happen within the next 9 to 12 years, is a pure science fiction plot unless global warming across the continental U.S. exhibits a consistent trend of temperatures accelerating to new highs over recent decades.

But have accelerating maximum temperatures in the U.S. actually happened on a consistent basis?

Nope.

A simple review of recent decadal empirical evidence - from NOAA climate scientists - indicates clearly the U.S. climate is not suffering from a condition of accelerating maximum temperatures that the politicians, bureaucrats and mainstream media have been propagandizing.

(click on to enlarge)	The following charts establish that during the majority of recent decades, the trend for maximum temperatures is not of dangerous accelerating rates but instead periods of decreasing rates. And although the 2020s decade is still in its earliest years, this decade's trend so far for U.S. maximum temperatures is downward, in a continuation from the two prior decades.  During both the 1990s and 1980s, the warming trends of maximum temperatures in the U.S. are evident. But neither decade exhibits an accelerated temperature trend that would be the harbinger of climate doomsday that has been prophesied.
	The 1970s were another decade of cooling maximum temps, and although not shown, so were the 1960s. One has to go back all the way to the 1930s and 1940s to find two decades in a row that had maximum U.S. temperatures increasing at a positive rate. In addition, an important observation is that every single decade sees a significant upward trend for atmospheric CO2 levels. Yet max temperatures in the U.S. often do much the opposite.
	Again, the empirical evidence simply does not exist that would support claims of a mass extinction for our American society from an accelerating, terrible global warming. This simple look at decadal trends of maximum temperatures simply refutes the claims of existential threat and completely undercuts the demands for the end of fossil fuels.  Additional temperature charts. Notes: Excel used to: convert Fahrenheit to Celsius; plot monthly U.S maximum temps & CO2 levels; to calculate/plot temp & CO2 linear trends.

The Changing U.S. Maximum Temperatures: An Existential Threat?

(click on to enlarge)

It's no mystery that NOAA over the many years has reported to policymakers and politicians that temperature changes in the U.S. are a potential problem.

And it's no mystery that the establishment politicos and policymakers have turned that warning into claims that we face an existential threat to life - as we know it - within 9 years.

But does the NOAA climate evidence for the U.S., in regards to changes in U.S. temperatures, support the existential threat claims?

Well, actually it doesn't.

Because in order to establish that there is even a hint of climate doom that we are facing, the actual temperature changes reported by NOAA should at least resemble the hyperbole about the climate's supposed dangerous global warming changes.

The above chart plots the actual 12-month changes of the maximum monthly temperature dataset across the continental U.S. since January 1965. In addition, it depicts the annual increase in the cumulative human CO2 emissions released over the same time span.

As can be seen, there is no systematic temperature change pattern evident that even produces a 'hint' of an existential threat.

Yes, temperature change in the U.S. has increased at certain points but as the three-year moving average (blue curve) reveals, that increase always reverts to a decrease - a natural return to the mean, so to speak. 

So, after 56+ years that experienced a gigantic cumulative global release of CO2 emissions that is close to 1.3 trillion metric tonnes, the hypothetical CO2-induced global warming that would cause a climate doomsday remains a wild exaggeration, without any empirical merit. 

With the above no-doomsday factual data in mind, what type of empirical evidence of temperature change would cause one to conclude that the empirical evidence resembles the hysterical claims of a potential existential threat? Below is a plot of hypothetically very small, but growing, 12-month temperature changes that are applied to every single month of the January 1965 to February 2021 dataset.

Result? An obvious, consistent pattern worthy of the legitimate concern: "Houston, we have a problem" with the climate.

(click on to enlarge)

Since climate reality does not exhibit this pattern, any hyperbolic claims by NOAA (and NASA) climate "scientists" and the establishment elites are nothing more than climate-porn lies designed to generate public fear.

Ahhh... 'those stubborn scientific facts' continue to be the nemesis of the establishment narrative.

Additional temperature charts.

Notes: Indeed, global and US temps have increased since the Little Ice Age, but the amount and pattern of temp change does not exhibit an existential threat from CO2 emissions. Cumulative CO2 data include an estimate for 2020 global emissions. Excel used to: convert Fahrenheit to Celsius; calculate and plot 12-month temperature changes, 36-month average; to calculate/plot cumulative CO2 emissions.

Hottest & Coldest Temperatures By Continent, As of 2020

One would think with the constant narrative barrage of climate change "doomsday" that there would be overwhelming empirical evidence proving that "catastrophic" global warming was creating continental wastelands of devastation from extreme temperatures.

But in reality, that isn't the case at all, as can be observed on the adjacent map image (click on image to enlarge).

When examining the hottest/coldest temperature records for the major continental masses, there has not been a new extreme temperature record established since 1994, per Wikipedia.

In fairness, there are smaller island and peninsula geographic areas that are surrounded by oceans that have new temp records since 1994. But those isolated incidents do not represent what is happening on the principal land mass of continents.

The fact that the "expert" predicted global warming doomsday from the trace greenhouse gas CO2 is not being observed at the continental level, even after decades of massive fossil fuel emissions, indicates that the global climate is not experiencing a "tipping point" of instability, which would result in an "existential" threat.

In summary, it's another case of those stubborn facts refuting the anti-science orthodoxy of dogmatic doomsday propaganda.

Latest Evidence: NOAA & Smithsonian Confirm Modern Era Temps Well Below Those of Past

As many climate scientists and skeptics have reported extensively, today's global temperatures are not unusual or exceptional in terms of warmth.

In fact, current global temperatures are so below what has occurred in the past, scientists at both NOAA and the Smithsonian Institution have been forced to deal with that reality.

Their updated (adjacent) temperature graph, as published in this article, clearly depicts modern temps significantly below those of past warmer periods.

Besides being below those of the past, the graph demonstrates that the idea of a "stable" climate is bunk. The climate is always changing and that also applies to today's climate.

It's another case of 'those stubborn facts' that is so hated by green-activists and wealthy renewable energy cronies.

 

Anti-Prosperity Democrats Joe Biden & Kamala Harris Are Wrong: Climate Change & Global Warming Are Natural, Not A Result of CO2

(click on to enlarge)

Out of touch, and well outside the boundaries of the U.S. mainstream moderate electorate, Democrat Joe Biden and his fringe left colleagues have been declaring that the world - as we know it - is soon going to end due to a global warming and a resulting climate change apocalypse.

But is that a reasonable, rational pro-science expectation?

Instead of focusing on the major reason of a natural rebound progression of global warming since the Little Ice Age, the anti-growth, anti-prosperity Democrats point to the smaller human related impact: fossil fuel emissions (CO2) from modern industrial/consumer activities.

The Democrat Party's anti-growth, anti-prosperity, anti-CO2 platform has become a dominant party position ever since the June 1988 climate doomsday Congressional testimony of NASA's chief climate scientist, James Hansen.

It was from that Congressional testimony that the doomsday prophecies of unprecedented global temperature change from CO2 became the lodestone of the party's faithful.

So, how good have those doomsday global warming change prophecies been since June 1988 (32 years ago)? In a one-word summation: lousy.

This first chart shows the temperature change plots of the IPCC's gold-standard global temperature dataset, along with the monthly cumulative growth of atmospheric CO2 levels (ppm) since June 1, 1988 through June 2020. Multiple periodicities of temperature change include 1-year (twelve month); 5-year (60 months); 10-year (120 months); 15-year (180 months); and, 20-year (240 months).

For example, the chart's 15-year temperature change ending June 2020 is almost identical to the 15-year temperature change ending June 1988. Respectively, those changes were +0.13°C and +0.11°C.

That tiny difference certainly confirms that over the past 30 years there has not been an extreme impact on longer-term temperature change despite some 850 billion tonnes of CO2 being emitted into the atmosphere since 1988.

And the chart absolutely reflects an up/down pattern of temperature change for all periodicities, but clearly it does not demonstrate any significant relationship to the very substantial, monotonous linear growth of CO2 levels.

To clear the clutter of multiple curves crisscrossing each other on the first chart, this next chart depicts the 36-month average (3-year average) of each temperature change curve found on the prior graph.

(click on to enlarge)

These plots also confirm an up/down pattern for all periodicities, plus confirms an absence of relation between the atmospheric CO2 level linear growth and temperature change.

Based on this empirical evidence of rather stable cyclical temperature change, plus the evidence from the prior article that global warming acceleration/deceleration also follows a cyclical pattern, it can be fairly surmised that human CO2 emissions are having little, if any, climate significant impact on global temperatures.

Although NASA's top climate scientist in 1988 predicted climate disaster was upon us due to intense global warming from CO2, after 30+ years it's time to admit he was wrong and it's time for the Democrats to stop pushing this anti-science, anti-prosperity, doomsday propaganda.

As usual in climate science, it's just another case of those stubborn facts that are so inconvenient.

Additional temperature charts here, here and here.

Note: Plots, temperature change and 36-month average calculations done with Excel.  Sources: global HadCrut dataset and NOAA's CO2 dataset

It's Indisputable Empirical Evidence: Trump's Policies Are Slowing Global Warming & Climate Change

(click to enlarge)

It is a known fact that during the Obama and Biden administration, global warming accelerated to a very high rate, which in turn resulted in the overall climate change accelerating.

Since January 2017, the Trump administration has slashed regulations and introduced new energy policies that unleashed American firms to innovate and invest at a spectacular speed. 

The end result has not only produced an actual cooling trend for global 'warming,' and thus a slowing of climate change, but Trump's policies have produced the long-sought energy independence and security that former President Jimmy Carter only dreamed of.

This chart reflects the empirical evidence of the Trump successes.

If only Democrats' Obama and Biden had embraced smart and innovative energy/climate polices during their tenure, the world would have been that much further along in addressing global warming.

 

Note: Source of HC4 global dataset plotted, from January 1850 thru June 2020. Excel used to calculate and plot slope and 10-yr moving average.

Remember When Climate Experts & MSM Were Fear-Mongering About The Amazon Being Destroyed By Droughts Caused By CO2? Never Mind

(click on to enlarge)

Back around 2005-2010, the climate change experts and the mainstream media were going on and on about the Amazon devastation due to droughts.

The implication was that the droughts were due to human caused climate change, and the droughts, in turn, would cause more climate change that would then cause the droughts to worsen - a prospective positive feedback loop prediction that did not bode good tidings for humans.

But skeptics around the world challenged these conclusions for obvious reasons.

Major regional droughts have always happened and they were not driven by human CO2 emission activity in the form of fossil fuel consumption. Plus, surprise, droughts have this habit of ending, which are then followed by periods of plentiful rain.

The 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts were no different.

As it turns out, the skeptics were right again and the climate experts; and the expert/MSM coalition were again victims of their own failed prediction hubris.

In a recent peer-reviewed study, nine scientists reconstructed the precipitation totals for the eastern equatorial Amazon basin of Brazil.

The adjacent chart depicts their findings. Simply stated, there are periods of excess rainfall and there are subsequent periods of drought over the 230-year period. The dramatic precipitation fluctuations are part of the natural cycle and those droughts taking place in the 21st century are part of this natural pattern.

From a review of the study:

"Examination of the precipitation record reveals, in the words of the authors, that it is "dominated by interannual and subdecadal variability, not unlike the instrumental precipitation totals for the eastern Amazon study area." Focusing on such variability captured in the reconstruction, Granato-Souza et al. note the existence of two extended wet episodes, a mid-twentieth century period from 1942-1956 and an earlier late nineteenth century period between 1882 and 1903, and one exceptional extended dry episode that occurred during the years 1864 and 1881.....A longer-term perspective of the moisture regime clearly indicates there is no compelling support for that contention given that both wet and dry periods of greater duration and magnitude have naturally occurred throughout the record despite atmospheric CO2 concentrations being much lower than they are today."

See prior articles on droughts and failed predictions.

The Climate Emergency 'Tipping Point': Does The Empirical Science Verify or Reject The Doomsday Fears?

(click on to enlarge)

Fortunately for those who believe in empirical science, the facts are indisputable. The earth is not at risk of rapid global warming that would set off a soon-to-be 'climate emergency or 'climate crisis' tipping point.

We live in an era where cult-like beliefs have caused a great number of people to accept what resembles a prophecy about the world ending within 12 years, from a global warming 'tipping point' for the climate.

This fear-mongering myth takes the form that humanity is causing - due to fossil fuel emissions - a rapid acceleration of global temperatures that will wreak havoc and destruction as the tipping point is reached.

But is there actual empirical evidence that this doomer prophecy is playing out with a soon-to-be ending to civilization?

The included chart is a plot of the IPCC's gold-standard empirical global temperature data representing how fast/slow global temperatures are moving - it's a climate warming speedometer, so to speak.

A breakdown of the chart: