Read here. Whether it's El Nino, the ENSO, the PDO, the NAO, or whatever, the climate models don't do ocean oscillations. They can't predict when they will happen or their intensity/severity, which makes predicting climate conditions just about impossible.
"The only scientist to make accurate forecasts of ENSO events was the late Dr Theodor Landscheidt. He explains, “My forecast is exclusively based on cycles of solar activity. This does not conform to the dominating trend in official science.” And therein lies a major part of the IPCC failures. As Landscheidt says, “This is irreconcilable with IPCC’s allegation that it is unlikely that natural forcing can explain the warming in the latter half of the 20th century. In declarations for the public, IPCC representatives stress that taxpayer’s money will be used to develop better forecasts of climate change. What about making use of those that already exist, even if this means to acknowledge that anthropogenic climate forcing is not as potent as alleged.” I find no reference to Landscheidt’s work in the IPCC Reports, but then they effectively ignore the sun and many other mechanisms."