Read here. At one time, the hubris of global warming scientists led them to believe their climate models could explain/predict the future ENSO variations. As usual, Mother Nature made fools of the scientists, so they went back to investigate what they and their models could actually explain/predict about ENSO.
End result of peer-reviewed study?
"...they state that "it is not yet possible to say whether ENSO activity will be enhanced or damped, or if the frequency of events will change."....."it is not clear at this stage which way ENSO variability will tip ... As far as we know, it could intensify, weaken, or even undergo little change depending on the balance of changes in the underlying processes."....."by a team of twelve researchers hailing from six different countries (Australia, France, India, South Korea, the United Kingdom and the United States), wherein they review the findings of what they describe as "a hierarchy of mathematical models [that] have been used to explain the dynamics, energetics, linear stability and nonlinearity of ENSO,""
"The authors write that "the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation," whereby "on a timescale of two to seven years, the eastern equatorial Pacific climate varies between anomalously cold (La Niña) and warm (El Niño) conditions," and that "these swings in temperature are accompanied by changes in the structure of the subsurface ocean, variability in the strength of the equatorial easterly trade winds, shifts in the position of atmospheric convection, and global teleconnection patterns associated with these changes that lead to variations in rainfall and weather patterns in many parts of the world," which end up affecting "ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide.""
Additional climate model postings.