Read here. Climate models are unable to predict the ENSO climate pattern (El Niño and La Niña) with any degree of accuracy, which makes them entirely worthless for projecting future climate conditions. Why?
New peer-reviewed research is now pointing to a relationship between seismic activity (earthquakes and volcanoes, especially the under water variety) and ENSO events. It is postulated that the energy released by these crustal activities are inducing ENSO responses. If true, climate models will continue to fail their purpose until the seismic activity is incoporated into the models as a climate forcing/influence.
"O. Molchanov of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of the Physics of the Earth makes a case for the hypothesis that, at least partially, global climate changes and corresponding activity indices such as the ENSO phenomenon are induced by similar variations in seismicity.".....it was determined, first of all, that (1) the "climate indices show expected ENSO variation," and "amazingly," as Molchanov describes it, that (2) the earthquake indices demonstrate "similar quasi-ENSO variations." So the next questions were obviously: (1) which is the action? ... and (2) which is the reaction? From a number of other factors considered by the Russian researcher, he concludes that it is "more probable" that earthquake activity is "forcing the ENSO variation in the climate" than vice versa."