Read here. The IPCC's merry band of Climategate scientists claim that their computer models predict a specific amount of Arctic warming. One big problem though: the models' simulations produce incorrect Arctic warming, per the latest research.
The list of failed predictions keeps on growing.
Scientists Chung and Räisänen analyzed the Arctic summer temperature output of two major models: the CAM3 and ECHAM5. The analysis of simulated results versus reality found that the models overestimated warming. The scientists concluded that the failed Arctic predictions are due to very significant, robust problem: models don't accurately represent climate forcings.....ooops!
"Compared with the June-August 3D temperature trend in ERA Interim reanalysis, the CMIP3 models simulate warming at higher levels, suggesting that the models over-simulate the role of poleward energy transport in Arctic warming...If the models simulate climate feedbacks correctly, the indication is that models have significantly incorrect climate forcing. Since GHG forcing is well established, the problem is likely in how the models treat aerosol effects. In this scenario, the real aerosol forcing might be significantly positive in the Arctic and significantly negative outside of the Arctic, while the models miss this feature entirely."
"This paper is yet another study that documents shortcomings in the global climate models that are used to make multi-decadal climate predictions."
[Chul Eddy Chung, Petri Räisänen 2011: Geophysical Research Letters]
Previous climate-model and peer-reviewed postings.