The evidence that human CO2 emissions are not a primary factor driving climate change and global warming continues to grow - analyzing fundamental empirical evidence points to ocean/atmospheric patterns as the principal climatic forces
One of these two charts is a plot of the Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation. The other chart a plot representing the 20-year
global temperature changes (for example, the very first data point is the temperature
change from January 1850 to January 1870).
Click on each chart to enlarge. Look carefully. Can you
tell which is which?
The charts are very similar, representing the exact same
time periods. Both charts have a black curve that is a plot of atmospheric CO2
levels. Note how the charts have a similar oscillation pattern that extends to
their respective 5-year (60-period) averages (purple curves).
NOAA
tells us that the AMO chart constitutes a "series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of
the North Atlantic Ocean, with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40
years...These changes are natural and have been occurring for at least the last
1,000 years...The AMO has affected air temperatures and rainfall over much of
the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, North America and Europe. It is associated
with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in
the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes...Models of the ocean and
atmosphere that interact with each other indicate that the AMO cycle involves
changes in the south-to-north circulation and overturning of water and heat in
the Atlantic Ocean...studies of paleoclimate proxies, such as tree rings and
ice cores, have shown that oscillations similar to those observed
instrumentally have been occurring for at least the last millennium. This is
clearly longer than modern man has been affecting climate, so the AMO is
probably a natural climate oscillation...We are not yet capable of predicting
exactly when the AMO will switch, in any deterministic sense."
So, in a nutshell, the AMO is essentially temperature variation
of a large body of water between the equator and Greenland. NOAA states it's a
result of the natural thermocline circulation change, while others suggests it
is driven by
solar irradiance and another expert, Bob
Tisdale, suggests it is influenced by leftover heat from Pacific Ocean El
Nino events. Regardless, the AMO is a natural climate phenomenon, unrelated to
CO2 - it is a consensus.
In contrast, the other chart (20-year global temperature
change), which has the basic look and feel of the AMO chart, is claimed by NOAA
and the IPCC's green-sharia bureaucrats to be the result of human CO2
emissions, especially after 1960. The alarmist scientists claim that human CO2
emissions cause global warming to be rapidly increasing; dangerously
accelerating; indisputable; irrefutable; incontrovertible; irreversible; and,
yada, yada, yada.
If this were actually the case, then the chart depicting
20-year temperature change should reflect these supposed traits, and most definitely,
not resemble the AMO chart.
Such a chart would at least indicate more extreme global
temperature changes over the last two decades, plus the 5-year average would be
continuously trending up. Instead, the actual 20-year change chart above
reveals a shrinking of global temperature change range over the last two
decades, and it reveals a 5-year average that modulates between increasing and decreasing,
just as the chart for the natural AMO does.
Look at the charts again. NOAA states that atmospheric
CO2 levels (black curve) are not the factor resulting in the AMO pattern, and
to any observer that is very evident. Likewise, the rational and objective
observer would find that the pattern of long-term global temperature change is
also not the result of atmospheric CO2 levels. (The green curves are poorly
correlated with the black CO2 curves in both charts.)
That then begs the question of what drives global temperature
change. Well, that part is not terribly difficult to understand - it's called
nature. Remember what NOAA said about the natural AMO: "The AMO has
affected air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere, in
particular, North America and Europe."
Ahhh...then it's not too big of a surprise that the
20-year temperature change chart seems to mimic that of the AMO chart, no? And when one
adds the Pacific’s ENSO and PDO climate modes to the mix, the outcome is
unequivocal: global temperatures are literally being driven by massive forces
of nature that simply swamps the greenhouse gas effect from a trace gas. (And that's why there is sucn an obvious a lousy correlation to CO2.)
One final thought…..for a great explanation of what is
the natural cause for the apparent linear trend of global warming, watch this video to better understand how
natural forces make it so.
Oh, and btw, which is which? The chart on the right is the AMO chart
since 1870; the chart of the left is the 20-year temperature changes of the
HadCRUT global (land/ocean) dataset since 1870.