The IPCC's bureaucrats utilize the UK's temperature datasets for their reporting - these datasets, including the sea surface dataset, are considered the gold-standard by the IPCC...an examination of the UK's sea surface temps indicates that NASA's "boiling oceans" prediction is sheer absurdity, besides being phony fear-mongering
(click on chart to enlarge; sources of data)
Previously, an analysis on the global satellite temperature dataset found that atmospheric global warming has actually
been decelerating since the Super El Niño event of 1997-1998.
Per NOAA's own records, the 1997-98 El Niño remains the strongest of the modern era, and as the prior analysis revealed, the lower atmosphere temperatures jumped to a new level (plateau) subsequent to the huge global temp spike in 1998.
As this new analysis shows, the Super El Niño had the same impact on sea surface temperatures across the globe. The adjacent chart plots sea surface temperatures since 1979 , broken into three segments (note: the same starting date from the satellite dataset analysis was utilized to keep the comparisons consistent).
The middle segment of the chart (the pink spike in temperatures) is a plot of the Super El Niño event, from its very low temperature beginning, to its ultimate peak and then finally its collapse (return) to a temperature anomaly close to where it began. In the case of ocean temperatures, the spike's pattern of low-temp to peak-temp to low-temp spanned across 36 months.
The 214-month temperature segment on the left (starting January 1979 thru October 1996), prior to the Super El Niño, has the following attributes:
- A linear global warming trend equal to +0.8°C per century
- Temperature variability, with a range of 0.4°C
- An average anomaly equal to +0.09°C
- A moving 36-month anomaly average that was increasing prior to the Super El Niño spike
- An addition of approximately 384 gigatons of human CO2 emissions
The 163-month temperature segment on the right (starting November 1999 thru May 2013), post the Super El Niño has the following attributes.
- A linear global warming trend equal to +0.4°C per century
- Temperature variability, with a range of 0.4°C
- An average anomaly equal to +0.34°C
- A moving 36-month anomaly average that currently is decreasing
- An addition of approximately 412 gigatons of human CO2 emissions
In addition to the plots of temperature segements, the chart includes dark grey columns representing the total of human CO2 emissions (gigatons) prior to the event, and then subsequent to the Super El Niño.
Conclusions, based on the IPCC's gold-standard sea surface dataset:
1. Prior to mother nature's Super El Niño phenomenon, Earth's oceans were not experiencing rapid, dangerous and accelerating global warming - no tipping point/runaway temperatures
2. Subsequent to the complete collapse of the Super El Niño phenomenon, the world's oceans have not experienced rapid, dangerous and accelerating global warming - no tipping point and runaway "boiling" seas as predicted by experts
3. Despite an approximate 35% monthly increase in human CO2 emissions subsequent to the Super El Niño, the global warming trend decelerated to a per century trend some 50% less than that prior to the El Niño event.
4. Obviously, the seas are not "boiling" and ocean warming is decelerating
5. CO2 emissions do not function/perform as the claimed global ocean temperature thermostat, nor as a warning/cooling "control knob"
6. After the Super El Niño, global temperatures achieved a new plateau (see simple anomaly averages - the dashed pink lines), which current monthly variability of sea surface temps now appear to oscillate around.
Summary: "Boiling" oceans
and the ludicrous Venus-like runaway warming are not happening as predicted by NASA
"experts" - the likelihood of either is literally in the realm of the Twighlight Zone
Recommendation: Now that 'Calamity James' Hansen has left NASA, it may be time for NASA to finally disavow the wacky and embarrassing climate predictions that remain without scientific, empirical merit.
Note: Chart plots, linear trends and averages produced by Excel. Additional updated NOAA information regarding ENSO and El Niño.