C3

Alarmist Propaganda: Does “Warmest” Year Mantra Mean Climate Squat?

As the mainstream press gets ready to unleash an untold number of the "warmest year ever" propaganda stories for year-end 2014, it begs the question...in the context of long-term climate change, does the "warmest" or "coldest" for any given year matter in any meaningful way?...actually, it does not, per the empirical evidence.....

(click on graph to enlarge)

The global warming slowdown (or "hiatus," "stall," "plateau," "pause" and etc.) has been widely discussed across a broad spectrum of web and print publications, including prominent science journals and peer-reviewed research, which indicates a 100% acceptance of the extended slowdown.

The realization and analysis of this lack of significant warming has produced a cornucopia of studies and expert opinions as to why the global climate went into a completely unexpected stall mode - so far, there are some 50+ scientific rationales that have been put forward to explain the phenomenon.

Since climate science remains unsettled, the current consensus is that there is a non-consensus regarding the globe's dramatic deviation form the CO2-centric "expert" climate models. Indeed, there is no shortage of empirical evidence documenting the ever-enlarging discrepancy.

Unfortunately, despite the indisputable and consensus scientific recognition that a temperature plateau exists, and the lively debate within science circles as to why, there are elite green alarmists who claim the 'standstill' is a hoax or does not exist - essentially, that is sheer climate-change denialism by deniers performing in anti-science, denialist roles.

On top of such denial travesties, the mainstream press is trying to change the focus away from the significance of the global warming slowdown and climate model failure to the incredibly small increase in warming that allows them to shout report that 2014 is the "warmest" year ever.

The term "warmest" (as in day, week, month, spring, summer, autumn, winter, year, decade and so on) has become the last propaganda refuge of those who either deny the global pause or just want everyone to forget its importance. Utilizing the terminology of "warmest" reveals the ultimate cherry-picking agenda.

However, since the Little Ice Age (LIA) end during the 1800's, the world has been constantly producing new "warmest-ever" records - it's entirely normal within the climate record, and will happen even when a temperature change hiatus exists.

To that point, both warm and cold years can coexist during longer periods of temperature stability, as multiple global and regional records demonstrate. In addition, it's unquestionable that severe/extreme weather events can take place, regardless if it is the "coldest" or "warmest" year.

As the adjacent chart depicts, rapid cooling and warming climate changes can occur very quickly. The chart plots both the acceleration and deceleration of temperatures (ie, per century trends) over moving 12-month periods (light red curve) since 1850.

Over short-term horizons,  global temperatures have been known to accelerate/decelerate at a ±70°C rate.

Since 1999, there have been periods when temps increased at a +35°C/century rate, which would obviously produce some very warm years; while during the same 15-year span, there have been periods when temps decelerated ay -39°C/century rate, which would have obviously produced interim cold periods. This is what the empirical evidence shows.

Now think about that last paragraph. Over the last 15 years there has been incredible shifts in temp trends, yet the mainstream press doesn't report on that. Instead the press reports excessively about a given period being all of 1 to 2 hundredths of a degree warmer than a previous year. The robust alarmist hysteria of "journalism" is sadly evident 24/7.

Okay, back to climate reality and the basic facts: Temperature changes. Trends increase, then decrease. It just happens. It's natural. It will continue to do so. And it has occurred since instrumental climate records have been kept and proxy temperature reconstructions have been created.

Speaking of instrumental records, back to the included chart for more evidence of extreme climate change. The HadCRUT4 instrumental record since 1850 shows some big extremes, which have been identified on the chart as those periods exhibiting temperature trends greater than ±50°C.

Those specific warming and cooling extreme incidents have been identified with the years they took place, and there are some common traits recognizable.

1. All the huge extreme changes took place over 40 years ago, with the vast majority being prior to 1950.
2. The huge CO2 emissions have not produced a single global warming acceleration extreme since 1951, over 60 years ago.
3. Since the 1970's, the climate extremes' range appears to be narrowing, with each accelerated warming and cooling trend rate getting smaller.
4. And when major (minor too) extremes occur, the climate system does not hit a "tipping point" of positive feedbacks. Instead, the natural climate responds with negative feedbacks to bring the climate back to some level of short equilibrium.

The chart also plots the moving 180-month (15 year) acceleration/deceleration of temperature trends (the dark blue curve).

Clearly, despite all the modern CO2 emissions, all the gyrations of the 12-month per century trends, and all the recent "warmest" years ever, the 15-year global warming trend has not deviated much from the past. Statistically, as of October 2014, that trend is below the median of all 180-month trends that took place in the past ( 1,801 1,799 trend datapoints to be exact).

• Sidebar factoid: During 1922, the 15-year per century warming trend reached a level that was 3 times greater than today's 15-year trend - that is a trend sans the gigantic cumulative human CO2 emissions resident in today's atmosphere. Is 1922 the only pre-1950 period when the 15-year trend exceeds today's? Nope (remember, October 2014 is below the historical median).

What does all of the above mean?

Today's global warming is neither civilization-ending, dangerous, rapid, nor quickly accelerating. It continues at a long-term pace that humans have not markedly influenced, per the empirical evidence. Thus, the proper response to a claim of a new "warmest" year is appropriately: 'so what?'

As shown, those stubborn facts of empirical evidence are relentless. The continuing long-term, natural warming climate trend since the LIA has been a constant, yet combined with amazing short-term periods of abrupt change that produce exceptionally warm years and cold years.

These are the scientific climate facts. They are unequivocal, immutable, indisputable, irrefutable, undeniable and non-debatable. It's called natural climate. It happens.

• Now, all of the above should not go without the following caveats: today's temperature trends are not forever. Trends are not predictions nor projections. As the plotted evidence indicates, the climate can change rapidly, going from cooling to warming back to cooling over short time spans. Any cool/warm trend has the potential to become a much longer, climate significant trend. And it's reasonable caveat to assume CO2 emissions have an impact, but likely a very trivial one (and easily overwhelmed) versus the natural climate change impact.
  
• There is no expert (of course, that doesn't keep most experts from speculating) who can predict how much longer the pause will continue and whether it will morph into global cooling or a return to greater warming. And by the way, if the latter, many people are already debating that potential and what it will mean - more confirmation that climate science is never "settled."
  
• When one connects the dots, so to speak, at the end of the day there have been absolutely zero climate models and/or experts that predicted the recent empirical climate outcomes that the above chart delineates - that's correct, none.
• And finally, the infamous "97%" scientist consensus that CAGW proponents often fall back on when empirical evidence, such as above, eviscerates their CO2-warming alarmism, has been seriously and embarrassingly debunked, multiple times. Read here and here.

Note: Source for monthly HadCRUT4 anomalies used for chart. Utilized Excel to calculate 12-month and 180-month (moving) slopes (ie. trends), then multiplied by 1200 to produce per century trends. Then used Excel to plot per century trends.

Déjà vu: The Significant Warming Pause For UK Temperatures - It Goes On Too

#tcot #agw #cop20 #climatechange

(click on chart to enlarge)

In the previous 'C3' article, we looked at U.S. temperatures since 1988 when a NASA climate expert in U.S. senate testimony made predictions of near-future catastrophic climate change and, of course, dangerous global warming.

As the article documented, temperatures in the U.S. have essentially been at a standstill over the last 10+ years, and catastrophic climate change (with its millions of IPCC predicted "climate refugees") is nowhere to be found.

The end result is the undeniable evidence that America's climate records are non-consistent with the well publicized climate expert climate predictions, and also with the billion dollar super-computer models that experts and mainstream journalists claim to be climate-omniscient.

It begs the question: Is the non-consistent climate reality in the U.S. also found in other parts of the world?

Turns out that the UK climate records, as represented by the Central England Temperature (CET) dataset, reveals the same expert abject failures and non-consistency with model simulations. "Rapid" and "dangerous" accelerated warming hasn't taken place there either.

Unlike the continental U.S., with its abundance of micro and regional climates, the small island area of Great Britain affords less climate variety yet produces similar warming/cooling trends over the recent past.

Like the U.S. dataset plots, the CET dataset is for the full 26 years (312 months through Nov. 2014) since late 1988  when both UK and U.S. catastrophic climate proponents initiated their public fearmongering campaign - the year of James Hansen's scare-testimony.

The adjacent UK chart depicts both the plots for 60-month temperature and CO2 averages. Clearly, the predicted rise in temperature due to higher CO2 levels has not happened - this is not consistent with any climate model simulation that the experts tout.

With a r² of 0.00 between monthly CO2 and temperatures values, the UK climate records also confirm the legitimate dismissal of the argument that CO2 acts as a "control knob" - some type of global temperature thermostat that UN elite bureaucrats and national politicians thought they could just dial for a desired climate.

And that "warming" trend for the last 13 years that just scares-the-poopie out of UK's elites? A -4.8°C per century...yep, a significant cooling trend.

In summary, the combined CET and U.S. climate records add to the empirical evidence disproving the hyperbole for CO2-caused disastrous global warming and catastrophic climate change. In reality the hyperbole is without any scientific validation.

Damn those stubborn facts.

Additional global and regional temperature charts exhibiting the lack of CO2 influence.

Note: UK CET monthly temperature dataset can be downloaded from here. CET provides absolute temperatures and these can be converted to anomalies using a 1901-2000 baseline averages that can be readily calculated. The 1901-2000 baseline was chosen since previous article about US temps used that baseline. Plots, averages and trends produced by Excel.

The Significant Warming Pause For U.S. Temperatures - It Goes On

#tcot #agw #cop20 #climatechange

(click on graph to enlarge)

The mainstream media's current du jour "climate science" claim is that 2014 is headed towards being the world's "warmest" year, ever.

Unfortunately, for the media that pushes the hysterical, that claim is actually without statistical merit, since the uncertainty error bars are large. In statistical terms, there's a darn good chance it's not the warmest year.

Then there is the jumbo elephant in the press room that "journalists" flat-out don't acknowledge, let alone report: the state-of-the-art climate satellite technology completely undercuts the world's "warmest year" hype.

And then there is the whole issue of where exactly is all this "dangerous," "out-of-control" warming taking place. For example, is it happening here in the U.S.?

Based on the multitude of anti-science, exaggerated "warmest-year-ever" paragraphs being produced by American reporters, one would think the good citizens of the U.S. are in the midst of the civilization-ending climate-fry.

But, as usual, the empirical evidence reveals the absolute distortions the media fabricates, per the latest U.S. climate records from NOAA.

Case in point: the adjacent graph is a plot for the last 26 years (312 months) of U.S. temperatures through November 2014 - since 1988. The red curve is a 60-month average that clearly indicates "global warming" in the U.S. has gone AWOL for at least a decade - on 'hiatus,' so to speak.

Then there is the 60-month plot of CO2 emissions (black dots), which obviously tells a different story then the press fabrication that the "rapid" global warming we are "suffering" from is a direct result of human CO2 emissions.

Hmmm...clearly temperatures do not react to CO2 as those crack science reporters "report."

This NOAA empirical evidence is unequivocal and indisputable, yet the mainstream media refuses to inform the American public of these most basic climate record facts.

So why did we pick 1988 as a starting point for this analysis?

Back in the summer of 1988, NASA had its climate expert, James Hansen, testify before the U.S. Senate. In his testimony, he predicted that across the world temperatures would rise dangerously due to human's increasing CO2 emissions.

As a result of the accelerating temperatures, Hansen foretold of major climate catastrophes that would plague the U.S. and the world within 20 some years, if business-as-usual CO2 emissions were not curtailed.

It's now 26 years later, and as the above graph depicts, global warming has stalled; CO2 emissions have not been curtailed in the least. And for the U.S. (look closely at the graph), continental temperatures actually experienced a cooling trend stretching over a decade.

The dramatic climate change disasters that NASA and Hansen predicted? Not even close to happening.

And those are the stubborn facts - much to the chagrin of the UN bureaucrats, national government elites and mainstream hacks journalists.

Additional global and regional temperature charts exhibiting the lack of CO2 influence.

Note: US temperature dataset can be downloaded from here. NOAA/NCDC reports absolute temperatures and these can be converted to anomalies using the 1901-2000 baseline averages that NOAA provides.

Climate headlines from other sources this past week...

http://ow.ly/DnQGN #tcot #gop #climate2014 ===> latest headlines

As the UN's latest traveling climate circus continues in Lima, Peru, leave it to Greenpeace to put their self-important public relations at the forefront.

And, less anyone forgets, Greenpeace and other sanctimonious, green NGOs contribute nothing, in terms of money and research, to solving actual environmental issues. It's all PR stunts and lobbying.

When will governments finally get real and start taxing these "non-profit" organizations that have sequestered billions of dollars away for their own private use?

Hmm...probably never because most bureaucrats and politico elites have been bought by the NGOs, no?

Oh well, as the world turns topsy-turvy in Lima, here are this past week's update of climate, weather and energy stories of note.

Climate headlines from other sources this past week...

http://ow.ly/DnQGN #tcot #gop #climate2014 ===> latest headlines

(Source: R.MeKee@ZanettiCartoons)

Adjacent is an entertaining synopsis of climate-doomsday cult predictions over multiple decades. 

The litany of anti-science prediction failures has been a stunning testament to the "expert" fearmongering, which rivals doomsday-crapola spouted by the likes of Christian evangelist Harold Camping and his ilk.

And just because Camping passed in 2013, there are other Christian doomsday-cult believers still keeping his fear-religion tactics at the forefront - with climate change being fertile ground for fanatics to spread their gospel.

If you are not yet depressed enough about the stupidity and gloominess exhibited by our "elites" regarding climate, then you certainly need to read the headlines from the past week.

Take a Prozac when you're done.