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Newest Research: Natural Climate Change Routs Mongol Invasion of Europe - 1242 AD

Recently, two science articles based on the latest research belies the notion, held by global warming alarmist proponents, that climate change is only a result of modern human CO2 emissions.

As skeptics of catastrophic global warming have long advised, climate change is primarily a result of natural forces that are not dependent on anthropogenic influences.

An example of this earthly natural climate change is the Little Ice Age (LIA), which had serious repercussions for many, including the Mongol invaders who terrorized Europe.

Researchers now believe that the underlying cause of the mysterious retreat by the Mongol invading forces of Hungary, during 1462 AD, was the bad weather - likely induced by the natural climate change associated with the LIA onset. Turns out the bad weather of climate change significantly reduced food and nutrition for the Horde's steeds and made for a very muddy terrain to battle on.

And then there is the new research from another planet in the solar system that proves natural climate change is not only a terrestrial phenomenon. 

Research derived from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter has established that the Mars ice age is in the process of ending due to a natural global warming for that planet.

In combination, these two research efforts add to the massive amount of scientific evidence that climate change is always occurring; and, most definitely does not require human consumer/industrial greenhouse gases to produce significant impacts on planetary environments and those associated civilizations.

Prior climate-history and peer-reviewed articles.

Scientific Research Confirms: Increased CO2 Improves Southern Hemisphere Forest Growth

Plant life across the world has improved and increased profoundly, everywhere, due to the higher levels of atmospheric CO2, in combination with the modest global warming since the Little Ice Age.

The most recent study confirming this benefit to the biosphere pinpoints exceptional growth and health for older forests in the Southern Hemisphere - specifically, the Cordilleras region of southern Chile.

Per the study:

"Urrutia-Jalabert et al. performed a series of analyses on tree ring cores they obtained from long-lived Fitzroya cupressoides stands, which they say “may be the slowest-growing and longest-lived high biomass forest stands in the world.” ... the authors write “the sustained positive trend in tree growth is striking in this old stand, suggesting that the giant trees in this forest have been accumulating biomass at a faster rate since the beginning of the [20th] century.” And coupling that finding with the 32 percent increase in water use efficiency over the same time period, Urrutia-Jalabert et al. conclude the trees “are actually responding to environmental change.” ... the researchers state “we believe that this increasing growth trend…has likely been driven by some combination of CO2 and/or surface radiation increases,” adding that “pronounced changes in CO2 have occurred in parallel with changes in climate, making it difficult to distinguish between both effects.”"

As is often the case, scientific research again confirms that the dogmatic consensus climate science, such as the "expert" prediction that the globe's biosphere would suffer great harm from anthropogenic CO2, has proven to be spectacularly wrong.

Additional peer-reviewed articles.

Inconvenient Science: Study of Wind Farm Impacts On EU Protected Species Determines 80% Reduction

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As multiple recent articles have documented, wind energy, in the form of wind farms, has been plagued with multiple serious issues. When compiling the list of issues, it demonstrates that wind power's future as a sustainable renewable energy resource is not so bright.

Articles such as these: here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.

Adding to the negative issue impacts of wind energy is a new study out of Scotland that established an 80% reduction of the EU protected golden plover bird species in the vicinity of a wind farm.

Per the inconvenient study:

"Lead researcher Dr Alex Sansom said: 'Golden plovers breed in open landscapes and it is likely that the presence of wind turbines in these areas leads to birds avoiding areas around the turbines. This study shows that such displacement may cause large declines in bird numbers within wind farms ...'It will be important to examine whether these effects are maintained over the longer term at this site, and we should also use these detailed studies to examine the effects of wind farms on other bird species.'"

Prior specie related articles and peer-reviewed studies.

Unimpeachable Scientific Data: Treeline Study Confirms U.S. Warmer In Past

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The vast majority of paleo-climate studies have been unequivocal - there are multiple past periods of warmer than current temperatures when low atmospheric CO2 levels existed. Empirical evidence, such as the Greenland ice cores, point to three specific Holocene periods of ancient historical warming: the Minoan, the Roman, and the Medieval eras.

A new research study focusing on the U.S. Western area provides unimpeachable scientific data confirming warmer the temperatures that the previous studies have found.

"In a recent treeline study from central Colorado, Carrara and McGeehin (2015) employed a combination of 23 radiocarbon ages and annual ring counts from 18 Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine (Pinus aristata) remnants found above the local present-day limits of such trees near the Continental Divide in central Colorado, which work revealed that the majority of the tree remnants "were established above the present-day limit of bristlecone pine from prior to 2700 cal. years BP to no later than about 1200 cal. years BP." ... "...has also been found and described in a number of other studies cited by Carrara and McGeehin, namely, those of LaMarche and Mooney (1967), LaMarche and Mooney (1972), LaMarche (1973), Petersen and Mehringer (1976), Scuderi (1987), Carrara et al. (1992), Fall (1997), Lloyd and Graumlich (1997), Doerner (2007), Benedict et al. (2008), Carrara (2011), Madole (2012), Lee and Benedict (2012), Lee et al. (2014) and Morgan et al. (2014)." ..."Clearly, therefore, there exists a wealth of real-world data from the western United States that testifies of the fact that there is nothing unusual, unnatural or unprecedented about that region's current mean yearly maximum and minimum temperatures...".

This should come as no surprise since both empirical and anecdotal evidence establish that natural climate change, with wide variation and extremes, has been a constant for humanity since the beginning.

Take home global warming (and cooling) message: the climate is not stable and never will be - natural climate change rules.

Additional climate-history articles.

'Green' Corporate Welfare On Steroids: "The Crony Capitalist King"

Can green entrepreneurs and corporations be successful without government handouts?

As this article discusses, Elon Musk is proving that having a 'green' business model is literally not sustainable without massive subsidies from the government.

"Tesla is a newfangled take on the welfare queen. Or more accurately, the EBT card – which is designed to look like a credit card. To have the appearance of a legitimate transaction … as opposed to a welfare payment...Underneath the glitz and showmanship, that’s what all of Musk’s “businesses” are about. They all depend entirely on government – that is, on taxpayer “help” – in order to survive...Without that “help,” none of Musk’s Tesla’s could survive."

As Musk and his ilk continue to line their pockets with "green" from average taxpayers, it is important to remember that it is the Democrat and Republican establishment types who have encouraged and allowed this to happen.

And, also remember it's the the mainstream media and the climate alarmist science community that created these green-crony hucksters sucksters - they too should be held accountable for what has happened. Simply, it is their constant hype of catastrophic alarmism that elected officials were able to hide behind as billions of taxpayer dollars were being sucked into non-viable commercial solutions instead of the basic research that is needed to pursue superior green technologies. 

FactCheck - Climate Change: Canadian Forest & Wildfires Due To Human CO2 Emissions?

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This article discusses the severe forest fire that is currently happening in the Fort McMurray area of Canada, which the article's author takes issue with those claiming the fire is due to climate change from human activities - i.e. human CO2 emissions, etc.

Claims that specific fires (and forest and wildfires overall) are due to human greenhouse gases have routinely been made since the 1988 testimony of NASA's top climate scientist, James Hansen, predicted that rapid and accelerating warming from GHG emissions would cause more severe and frequent weather events. 

As a result of this Congressional testimony, the "consensus" climate experts then predicted that the "dangerous" human-caused warming would produce a significant trend increase of wildfires, especially in the northern hemisphere's boreal forests.

Although the globe has warmed since 1988 (not rapid, nor accelerating, see here and here), the trend for Canadian boreal forest fires has been the opposite of that predicted over the 27 years after the Hansen 1988 testimony.

The adjacent charts plots the number of Canadian forest fires and hectares burned. Clearly, the trends are declining, which suggests an inverse relationship with the level of atmospheric CO2 (ppm CO2 is the chart's right axis).

Despite those climate "experts" failed prognostications, the recent irrefutable empirical evidence indicates that the increased levels of atmospheric CO2 emissions are producing a greener and healthier biosphere, which actually may be more resistant to wildfires.

Additional forest fire articles of the past [tip: then use browser Cntrl-F function to do search on word 'forest' to find forest fire news articles on that page].

Note: Canadian forest fire statistics source; Excel used to plot annual fire statistics and linear trends.

Evidence-Based Science: Study Determines Changes In Global Precipitation Minimal Over Last 150 Years

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The unsubstantiated claim has been that human CO2-induced climate change was (and is) producing dramatic changes in precipitation levels across the world.

But is it true?

A research effort was undertaken to determine if indeed the evidence backed up the alarmist non-empirical claims/predictions.

The study's findings:

"...report that "most trends exhibited no clear precipitation change," noting that "global changes in precipitation over the Earth's land mass excluding Antarctica relative to 1961-90 were estimated to be: -1.2±1.7, 2.6±2.5 and -5.4±8.1 percent per century for the periods 1850-2000, 1900-2000 and 1950-2000, respectively." ... "stations experiencing low, moderate and heavy annual precipitation did not show very different precipitation trends," ... "deserts/jungles are neither expanding nor shrinking due to changes in precipitation patterns." ... "reasonable to conclude that some caution is warranted about claiming that large changes to global precipitation have occurred during the last 150 years."

Simply put, the exaggerated climate change claims of major disruption to rainfall/snow patterns are just that, exaggerations sans any empirical evidence. The evidence-based science is clear: Over the last 150 years, precipitation trends remain within normal variability.

Prior climate/weather change and peer-reviewed articles. 

Climate Model Performance: Is It A Case of "Even A Broken Clock Is Right Twice A Day"?

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Earlier this year, a comparison was done using the GISS global temperature observations dataset versus an earlier version of the NASA/GISS computer climate model output, as of 2015 year-end. That comparison can be viewed here.

It is now 4 months later with the current powerful El Niño producing some very high global temperature averages.

So, how does the GISS dataset, as of March 31, 2016, compare against a newer climate model, specifically, the IPCC's modern CMIP5 model using the supposed business-as-usual greenhouse gas scenario (RCP8.5)?

The adjacent chart tells the story, but we add some more content below:

• The current El Niño appears to have peaked (maybe not, though) with a strong and rapid rising of GISS global anomalies over the 6-month period ending in March
• The 6-month surge in anomalies placed the Feb. and Mar. observations above the model output
• Despite this huge 6-month surge, the GISS linear trend is still well below the model's simulated linear trend since 1988
• Despite this huge 6-month surge, the 3-year (36-month) simple GISS moving anomaly average remains well below what the CMIP5 climate model produces for the same 3-year period
• The sharp uptick of the blue GISS 3-year moving average, after 2012, reveals the power of this recent El Niño on global temperatures
• The 2013 to mid-2016 slow build-up of the current El Niño peak reveals its contribution to warming as the arithmetic mean of the anomalies stepped up considerably (see on the chart: the black dashed lines represent the anomaly arithmetic means for the periods 2000-2012 and 2013-2016/March - note the shift up) 
• The stall (i.e. the 'Pause', the 'Hiatus') in significant global warming can be seen, both in the 3-year GISS moving average and in the underlying anomalies during the 2000s, prior to the 2013 uptick that leads into the powerful El Niño
• The December 2012 anomaly was only 0.05 degree higher than the December 1999 anomaly - that meager five one-hundredths increase is indicative of the lengthy 'Pause' that occurred

Speaking of the current El Niño (and prior El Niños and La Niñas): "What goes up up must.....?"

• The advanced climate model output clearly misses all the big extremes and wide variations of observed global temperatures, including this El Niño's recent incredible burst of warming
• Per the official NOAA definition of the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), it has now been 48 periods (a period being 3 months) since the last La Niña ended in early 2012
• Since the beginning of 1988 (339 months thru March 2016), 23% of the 3-month periods have been a La Niña condition versus 24% for El Niño conditions
• At 13 periods in length, this El Niño is rather long-in-the-tooth compared to most since January 1988
• After a strong and long El Niño, it is common for the ONI Index to reverse directions, sometimes dramatically (i.e. a strong La Niña)

Summary:

Whether its the old NASA computer model simulations or the newer variety of IPCC climate models, Hansen's 1988 prediction of rapidly accelerating and dangerous global warming from human CO2, and other greenhouse gases, has done poorly in comparison to actual observed temps.

Although the recent spike in global temperatures from the current El Niño may provide some AGW alarmist bragging rights ("see, that clock is accurate"), it is highly probable the recent 6-month surge is a very temporary spike, entirely due to the natural ENSO phenomenon that climate models are incapable of predicting.

In fact, when viewing the future projections from the CMIP5 model, one sees the exact same pattern as above - a monotonous upward saw-tooth pattern of small ups and downs, completely unlike the chaotic conditions of real-world climate that is produced by all the conflicting natural feedback forces. 

And the reversal from the current temp spike could well lead to another 'Pause' in any significant warming. If that happens, it will build on the growing consensus that climate models can't accurately predict squat, and should not be relied upon by policymakers for any reason - good for research but really terrible for reality-based policy.

Previous climate-model articles and charts.

Note: James Hansen's 1988 testimony took place in June 1998; this comparison used January 1988 as the starting point. The RCP8.5 scenario is considered by the majority of scientists seeking global warming research grants as the business-as-usual scenario. The climate model anomaly output for the CMIP5 RCP8.5 was adjusted to match the January 1988 anomaly for the NASA/GISS global dataset. Both the RCP8.5 and GISS dataset anomalies used in above chart were calculated by KNMI using the 1981-2010 span as the baseline. Both the model and observed datasets were downloaded after the baseline was chosen. Excel was used to plot chart and calculate all figures, including the linear trends and 3-year moving averages.

"Prophets of Doom": The Never-Ending Saga of Leftist Greens & Their Democrat Zombies

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A quote from a real-world reality article published today. (h/t)

"The record of populist predictions about the evils of modern society is terrible. The most alarming predictions, which garner the most headlines and have the most impact on public policy, never come to pass. Perennial pessimism is nothing but paranoid neurosis. ... "The prophets of doom wish they would be quietly forgotten, and for the most part they have been. But they shouldn’t be, when the very same fearmongers remain in positions of influence or power."

Speaking of "prophets of doom," below is a short review of Marc Morano's new investigative documentary. 

Last night was the movie theater premier of Climate Hustle. A result of a low budget, it is surprisingly well put together, entertaining and informative. The funniest part of of the film for the audience appeared to be the sequence of the UK's Prince Charles repeating his elitist blather of nonsensical doomsday prophecies, year after year.

My only criticism of the film was at the very end when a panel discussion takes place. The panel included Sarah Palin, who came across as rather inarticulate (my wife confirmed that opinion). Not sure what the thought process could have been as far as including Palin in the film - she is not known at all as a knowledgeable spokesperson for the climate-doomsday skepticism viewpoint. Plus, her reputation as a right-wing, partisan flamethrower adds an unwanted political patina that blemishes the documentary's credibility, needlessly.

Best part of the ending panel discussion was the interview with "scientist" Bill Nye that exposes the authoritarian, pro-censorship and anti-science sentiments of liberal, green Democrats. Morano should seriously consider deleting the entire panel discussion from the film with the exception of his revealing interview with Nye. 

Regardless of the less than satisfactory ending, the capacity audience appeared to appreciate and enjoy the movie. 

Did I say "capacity"? Indeed, on a very nice spring climate weather Monday night that had the huge theater complex with multiple screens being rather sparse of movie attendees, there were very few open seats left for the Climate Hustle experience - I was stunned.

A paying audience's craving for this film's message would suggest that many Americans are not yet brain-dead doomsday zombies. Definitely go see when the opportunity arises again.

Did Global Warming Alarmist Bill Nye Just Help With The 'Climate Hustle' Ticket Sales & PR For Its Theater Premier?

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Personally, I'm planning on buying tickets for the Marc Morano's 'Climate Hustle' movie release in theaters tomorrow, Monday May 2. Those plans were happening regardless of Bill Nye.

But with his attempt at lefty censorship, it certainly may cause others to be curious enough about Morano's film that it pushes them to the point of attending. Or, it may incite others just to buy tickets to spite Nye and his green crony-welfare Democrat pro-censorship friends.

Of course, due to his own self-promotion at seeking the limelight, it's not a surprise Bill Nye provided the movie with some free PR. The man has certainly placed himself in the headlines quite a lot lately, which has been recorded quite frequently on our 'Headlines Only' page.

(Note: To find the 'Nye' headlines, use your Cntrl-F browser function and do a search for 'Nye' on this page.)