Satellites, the advanced gold-standard technology that humanity has used to explore the moons, the planets, the solar system and beyond, are also widely deployed to explore Earth and its atmosphere. A key empirical satellite measurement that especially interests the scientific community is the global warming of the lower troposphere (LT) . This empirical evidence is critical to determine if catastrophic global warming beliefs are rational and deserving a response.
The widely held global warming belief is that human Co2 greenhouse gases will soon cause, via a positive feedback loop, a rapid tipping point warming of the lower atmosphere, resulting in a destruction of Earth's surface and an eventual decimation of civilization. Many who believe in this catastrophic global warming scenario even speak of the potential of Earth becoming another uninhabitable Venus.
As it turns out, satellites are situated perfectly to be the premier 24/7 monitoring system of the atmosphere, thus allowing scientists to measure and watch for a constant warming acceleration - i.e., indicating the existence of the hypothetical tipping point.
Over the last 3 full years, the satellites have measured a lower atmosphere (aka LT) temperature that has exceeded past temperatures of the previous 36 years. The same 3-year warmest temperature phenomenon has also been experienced on Earth's surface.
In the case of the lower atmosphere, the temperature rise has been about a half-degree Celsius - that's during almost 4 decades of satellite measurements. The increase possibly has raised the absolute lower atmosphere temps to about -4.0°C, which is still significantly below zero.
Conclusion #1: The absolute temperature of the lower atmosphere has not been raised significantly despite multiple decades of human Co2 emissions. The current level of LT temperatures are not likely in the least to produce an imminent global warming catastrophe, nor a feared "tipping point."
The included chart plots both the temperature anomalies (column plots) over the last 3 warm years and the moving 36-month (3-year) per century warming/cooling rate of the LT.
The global warming catastrophe premise requires that trace Co2 gases produce a positive feedback loop that creates the rapid and runaway tipping point of accelerating temperature increase.
Yet, despite the last three years being the warmest in terms of satellite measurements, the plot of the rate of global warming per century has collapsed over the last three years. Instead of the proposed positive feedback producing ever faster atmospheric temperature increases, the plot reveals a very strong warming trend that accelerated during the 2015/16 El Nino phenomenon, which then quickly decelerated to a per century trend of 4.3 degrees Celsius - and, in the recent past, similar deceleration patterns have lead to outright negative per century cooling trends.
Conclusion #2: There is absolutely zero empirical evidence from the most advanced and sophisticated scientific technology available that Co2 emissions produce a constant positive atmospheric feedback leading to an ever faster acceleration of global warming. The familiar strong acceleration and then strong deceleration repeating pattern is representative of natural climate variation, not of a human-induced runaway overheating of the climate.
Conclusion #3: Since Conclusions #1 and #2 are derived from the actual empirical science evidence, policymakers at the national, state, and local levels have no rational basis to make large expenditures and impose unnecessary regulations in an attempt to stop what has now become a fact-less, irrational, anti-science belief of human-caused catastrophic global warming and climate change "tipping points."
Notes: In the earlier version of this article, the wrong chart was used. The satellite temperature anomalies and 3-year warming trends calculated and plotted using Excel; datasets used to produce monthly anomalies in an equal-weighted combination of two satellite datasets - RSS and UAH. From Dec. 1979 to Dec. 2017, the LT anomaly increase of the combined average dataset was +0.54 degree Celsius. The satellite acceleration/deceleration climate pattern in the past has ranged from a +24.0ºC to a -23.1ºC per century trend for 36-month periods. Observed measurements represent scientific empirical evidence. Climate models are not scientific empirical evidence but instead just formula-based speculative prediction/forecasting tools that are unable to accurately portray future climate conditions. At best, climate models are 'what-if' scenario generators that are not capable of identifying the actual future 'what-if' real-world outcome.