As this blog has pointed out multiple times, over the last 10+ years, computer simulation models are essentially worthless for policymaker decision making.
Mountains of evidence exist that models can't predict squat, which is a simple concept that seems not to be grasped by way too many policymakers and about 100% of the MSM press.
Model prediction failure is true, whether the issue is climate change or the COVID-19 pandemic or other policy issue.
Why then are computer simulation models used?
Their effectiveness lies not in prediction success but rather as convincing propaganda by scientists and media in order to induce fear and irrational hysteria.
And there is no doubt the past four weeks of the 'CoronaHysteria' has established, yet again, that computer models are proven to be terrible tools for predictions but great for propaganda purposes.
Adding to the misery of bad modeling output is the successful promulgation of the propaganda by the country's self-anointed elites, thus insuring stressful mayhem for the public coupled with vast unintended consequences.
Such as closing down an entire nation's economy that produces massive, record setting unemployment numbers and psychological wreckage in just a few short weeks.
And unfortunately, the elites' blind faith in "consensus" expertise leads to all sorts of proclamations and statements that are, more often than not, proven to be wrong, divisive, and exceptionally stupid to say in a group larger than two, let alone on a widely disseminated public forum that cable news provides.
One recent example of this level of elite stupidity is the following nugget of wisdom that MSNBC "journalist," Andrea Mitchell, seems to be pushing:
MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell and the Washington Post's Philip Rucker decided on Monday to place the blame for the current pandemic on President Trump and conservative red states "...that there were a number of people in red states early on who didn't heed the warnings to socially distance because they believed the President's false comments."
Per the above chart, it is obvious that the red-state 'rubes' are not spreading the coronaCCPvirus to the blue states - that is an alternate reality fantasy. Instead, it is the direct opposite: the liberal/progressive states are the epicenter of disease and spreading it to the rest of the country. (New Yorkers fleeing to Florida, Puerto Rico and other locales comes to mind.)
For some, this empirical evidence suggests that the worst 9 states and the District of Columbia should be strictly quarantined, including the red-state of Louisiana that so foolishly allowed their famous and popular New Orleans Mardi Gras festival to proceed during the month of February. (Possibly the good red citizens of Louisiana should be forgiven since accountability rests with the Democrat idiocracy there - the state's governor and the mayor of New Orleans).
Maybe the key to blockading the coronavirus progression across the country is the total train/plane/car/bus travel curtailment for these virus-laden states - not the economically damaging state/local social distancing business closures.
And what about the effectiveness of those now infamous social distancing polices?
Well, the table below reveals the dates of key social distancing policies (ie, stay at home orders, school closings, non-essential business closings) enacted by each state in the best 10 and worst 10. One does not have to be a rocket scientist to realize that the date enactment of strict isolation policies is not well correlated with death outcomes per 100k population of the states.
Let it be said though, one significant advantage that red states have, besides their greater well of common sense, is the benefit of natural social distancing. Living farther apart is rewarded during a pandemic - no authoritarian social distancing policies required.
Note: Red states are those likely to vote Trump2020. Blues states are those likely to vote Biden2020. Michigan is considered by many to be a 'swing' state and thus gets the purple color. Dataset for the deaths/100k calculations comes from this site. Implementation (or not) dates of social distancing policies for each state can be found at this site. Computer simulations/models are a valuable tool for researchers investigating the impact of different policy scenario assumptions. Output from computer models is not evidence since it represents speculation based on assumptions. Computer modeling is not science. It is sophisticated crystal-balling utilized for business, for games of chance, for elections, and other endeavors, including science.