Global warming is the grand bugaboo for all catastrophic climate change alarmists. In reality, though, this existential threat is without science merit.
For decades, the alarmists have predicted that there is an existential threat because temperatures are rapidly increasing due to human CO2 emissions. Their belief is that global temperatures are accelerating towards a 'tipping point' that will be civilization ending ..... and very soon, they say.
But, as this chart of accelerating/decelerating temperature trends reveals, not much has changed in a climate significant, long-term manner, due to the feared increase in atmospheric CO2.
(As an aside, it was in 1988, when NASA first presented the "existential" threat concept to gullible politicians.)
In a nutshell, global temperatures will accelerate - and then decelerate - regardless of the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. As can be observed, the 12-month per century temperature trend is extremely volatile, yet the 240-month (20-year) trend is relatively stable in contrast.
When viewed in context, the empirical evidence clearly demonstrates that the wild extreme swings in acceleration/deceleration for short-term temp trends does not translate into a wildly rapid acceleration of longer-term temperature trends.
And for further context, the current 20-year trend is at 1.46°C, which is significantly lower than the 2.43°C 20-year trend established way back in February 2004.
Yes, despite all the hair-pulling hysteria about the many multiple gigatonnes of CO2 emitted, the 20-year warming trend decreased by some 40% over the last 17 years.
Therefore, without that rapid acceleration of longer-term temperature trends, the existential threat of a climate tipping point is non-existent.
If the existential threat is non-existent, when should a potential climate tipping point become an issue of greater scrutiny and of serious debate?
Well, maybe when the aqua 240-month (20-year trend) trend starts rapidly increasing and then surpassing the red line (6.4°C) on the chart, which represents the minimum constant per century trend required every single month (from August 1, 2021 thru December 31, 2099) to produce a 5°C increase in global temps by 2100.
Notes: Excel was used for all slope calculations and then plotting of trends on chart. Green CO2 line on chart represents the CO2 atmospheric level cumulative growth (in ppm units) over time. Data sources: Modern CO2 levels & historical levels. UK's HadCrut4.6 monthly global temps.