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Climate Warming Doomsday Scenario: What, Me Worry? Part4

The CAGW hypothesis calls for a rapid acceleration of global warming from human CO2 emissions, which is not taking place, based on the empirical evidence observed in 'Part#1' of the article series.

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The hypothesis also calls for the temperature changes to become of greater magnitude due to positive feedback mechanisms initiated by the higher CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

However, that is not taking place either.

As this scatter plot reveals, over the last 30 years there is zero relationship - R² equals +0.003 - between atmospheric CO2 levels and subsequent 12-month temperature anomaly changes.

Note that the regression is negative instead of the predicted positive feedback result, which could be interpreted as CO2 increases causing smaller-magnitude temperature changes

Which leads us to the following: If the magnitude of global temperature increases is not associated with the growth of atmospheric CO2 levels from fossil fuel combustion, then claiming these emissions are causing a runaway climate warming, doomsday scenario, tipping-point is truly without serious scientific merit.

What, me worry?: Part1, Part2, & Part3. Additional historical, global and regional temperature charts.

Notes: Excel used for all calculations and plots. Sources: Global temp anomalies & CO2 levels.

Central England Temperatures: Update of Old 2009 Temp & CO2 Chart

One of C3's old Central England Temperature (CET) charts shows up now and then on Twitter ('X') despite being quite dated. The most recent example was this tweet by @EcoSenseNow using a chart from an article we posted way back on January 13, 2010.

The fact that this chart is still being used, we thought it was time to update the chart with the new data since 2009. And we included with the updated chart the yellow box of text that was often added to 'C3' charts from 2009-2012. (The original chart included a yellow box of text.)

Additional historical, global and regional charts.

Climate Warming Doomsday Scenario: What, Me Worry? Part3

Should the average person be worried about a global warming doomsday because of human CO2 emissions?

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NOAA global temperature empirical evidence confirms that the hypothetical, strong correlation between CO2 atmospheric levels and temperatures is without merit over the recent past.

Rapidly accelerating towards a climate 'doomsday' from CO2 emissions is a scientific falsehood.

And that means the average person can completely ignore the climate hysteria propaganda.

What, me worry?: Part1 & Part2

Additional global and regional temp charts.

Notes: Excel used for all calculations and plots. Sources: Global temp anomalies & CO2 levels.

Climate Warming Doomsday Scenario: What, Me Worry? Part2

Remember when "journalists" claimed the U.S. was burning up and we needed to do something about it immediately?

USCRN, the recently implemented, gold-standard climate reporting and measurement system, now has updated results through June 2023. And it shows that June 2023 temp is below that of June 2005 after 18.5 years of humans releasing CO2 emissions.

Below is a map of U.S. that indicates the hottest temperature records for each state. 39 of the states hit their highest temp before 1960.

Source: https://twitter.com/ChrisMartzWX/status/1679544479458689024

The above information is an indication that the impact of huge human CO2 emissions has little regional climatic impact, which lends credence to other empirical evidence that the global impact is significantly less than claimed by climate alarmist advocates.

Thus, are Americans facing an imminent warming doomsday catastrophe from greenhouse gases? "What, me worry?" translates to 'NO', the evidence-based answer.

Additional regional and global temperature charts. Previous 'Those Stubborn Facts' postings.

Climate Global Warming Doomsday Scenario: What, Me Worry? Part1

A global warming doomsday scenario requires a state of continuous, rapid acceleration of warming that has exponential traits. If that is not taking place, then there is no worry about an existing doomsday crisis/emergency.

Climate reality: There is no continuous, rapid acceleration. The satellite empirical evidence reveals climate trends switch back and forth from acceleration to deceleration over a wide range of periods, despite the large increases in atmospheric CO2 levels.

And as the time spans get longer in length, the warming temperature resolves to a small linear trend of warming that is, let's say, light-years distant from being an existential climate threat or a doomsday scenario.

And the correlation between warming trends and increasing levels of CO2? Insignificant. The top chart has a r² of 0.0008; the bottom r² is at 0.025.

 

Additional global and regional charts.

Notes: Excel used for all plots & calculations. R-squareds between trends and CO2 levels increases calculated using the average (black curve) of the rolling trends for each chart. Calculations based on entire satellite dataset that starts with December 1978. CO2 plot represents monthly cumulative increase in the atmosphere levels since December 1978. Source of monthly UAH satellite temps; source of monthly CO2 (ppm) levels. Since August 1, 2014 thru June 2023, the satellites confirm a zero warming trend - 8.9 years at zero.

 

Evidence of CO2 Climate Change or Natural Climate Change?

Do monthly increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 from human emission sources cause ocean temperatures to consistently warm each month? That's what NOAA, politicians, the establishments' legacy MSM, and Hollywood celebrities want everyone to believe.

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But actual empirical evidence from NOAA's own climate reporting system, as shown here, debunks that erroneous belief.

Literally, the warming trend of ocean waters has been ZERO since March 2014. Actually, it's a total of 111 months with a very tiny cooling trend.

As depicted by the dark blue, moving 24-month average, visually it is clear from the empirical evidence that sea waters exhibit significant changes in temperatures, both up and down.

Human CO2 emissions do NOT cause significant up/down variations of monthly sea temps.

Specifically, look at the last three columns (March, April & May 2023 respectively) of the chart. CO2 emissions did not all of a sudden cause those significant increases in temperature anomalies.

Instead, natural regional/global climate oscillations and patterns are the cause, as they can produce significant up/down temp changes on a monthly basis that affect both oceans and global land areas.

Climate oscillations, such as the periodical ENSO pattern, which can generate large increases/decreases in temperatures.

And in fact, climate and weather researchers have been predicting the last 12 months that an important change in the ENSO status would take place, changing from the La Niña to the El Niño phase. And over the last three months, that change has finally occurred.

This latest El Niño event is expected to significantly impact global warming average temperatures, per the experts.

But the natural ENSO oscillation is not the only natural climate variation that can produce a strong impact on both temperatures and other climate observations. This list identifies some 45+ oscillations/cycles/patterns that influence regional and global temperatures.

Additional global temperature charts.

Note: Excel used for plots/calculations of NOAA ocean temperature data through May 2023.