C3

"Climate Emergency" Disinformation: Pushing Visual Fear-Propaganda

It is regrettable that so many politicians today feel compelled to support particular agenda narratives laced with disinformation that is being created by a number of sources, including those of misguided "expert" scholars, scientists, activists, and journalists.

The false narrative has grown so obvious and apparent during the COVID era that large segments of the public are rejecting the blatant propaganda. Many believe that this is because the ongoing disinformation is being used to force the public to comply with authoritarian, anti-democratic laws and regulations that have been developed by the "experts."

And much like the disinformation of the COVID narrative, the ruling elites are using the same propaganda techniques for the issue of climate change (aka global warming, climate emergency, climate crisis, existential threat, etc.).

Chart #1 (click on to enlarge)

As an illustration, the ruling class is currently spreading false information about "global boiling" in an effort to persuade the populace that major reductions in the use of fossil fuels are required in order to "save the world."

The disinformation campaign frequently uses climate science graphs, like this global anomaly chart from NASA/GISS, to incite widespread public angst.

The NASA/GISS graph (Chart #1) created by the experts depicts scary, rapidly rising monthly global temperature anomalies and displays an anomaly range from -1.0 to +1.5°C on the left axis for the past 170+ years.

But who lives in a location where temperatures (actual observed thermometer values) only range 2.5 degrees in the course of a year?

The majority of people on earth typically live in one of the 90 some nations with a low to high temperature range of the thermometer that is greater than 38 degrees every year. For instance, China's climate has an average daily low in January of -10.6°C and an average high in July of 39.8°C, which is roughly a 50-degree range for a country with 1.4 billion people.

Chart #2

Since it is not practical for this article to show a thermometer degree plot for each of those 90 countries, instead chart #2 plots both the global monthly thermometer and global anomaly temperature measurements using a temp range from -2.0 degrees Celsius (28.4F) to 36 degrees Celsius (96.8F).

Chart #2 provides the real-world temperature context that the public is missing when presented with a simple anomaly chart, such as the one produced by NASA/GISS.

In addition, the common anomaly temperature published by NASA/GISS and other climate research agencies do not include the atmospheric CO2 growth that is claimed to be the cause of the "global boiling."

Chart #2 does include the CO2 growth, making it possible for the public to assess the governing elites' claims that the normal person's use of fossil fuels is actually producing a climate emergency, a climate crisis, an existential threat, global boiling, and etc.

It is very likely that the average person viewing figure #2 would not draw the same conclusion as the experts that CO2 warming is about to bring an end to civilization.

In conclusion, a rational discussion about solutions rather than authoritarian decrees could start if politicians and their "experts" gave the public the necessary information about the climate change challenges in the proper context and avoided the easily debunked fear-mongering hyperbole and disinformation.

Additional global and regional temp charts.

Notes: Chart#1 source. Excel used for calculations and plot of chart#2. Source of NOAA's global monthly mean temperatures for calculation of thermometer temps & source of NOAA anomalies.

The Current "Climate Emergency" Narrative: NOAA's Actual U.S. Maximum Temperatures Data Completely Debunks

Government officials and the mainstream legacy media continuously claim that the U.S. is experiencing a "climate emergency" because temperatures are rising due to CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use.

But the actual climate data from NOAA tells a different story—an empirical story that CO2 has little if any impact on U.S. temperatures.

(click on to enlarge)

The adjacent table of data shows each state's warmest month ever, based on the actual NOAA's max monthly temperatures.

And note that the vast majority of these state maximum temperatures took place before 1955, while only 15 states have experienced a 'maximum' month record during the 21st century.

While "global" warming has taken place over the last 30 years, it does not yet rival the record-setting warming that occurred earlier in the 20th century across wide swaths of the U.S.

The table also includes a correlation measurement (R²) that measures the strength of the relationship between a state's monthly maximum temperature anomalies and the cumulative atmospheric CO2 increases.

The R² measurements in the last column reveal an almost non-existent relationship between an increase of atmospheric CO2 and a state's maximum temperatures across 283 months (23 years + 7 months) of the 21st century.

If there was even a moderately positive relationship that suggests some causal effect between the two variables (CO2 increases and temperature anomaly increases), the R² measurement would need to be above +0.30 and certainly not negative, as eight states have experienced.

At the bottom of the table, the same information is listed for the entire U.S. Again, one finds that over the last 23+ years, CO2's impact on our nation's maximum temperatures borders on being negligible.

And the last entry in the table is for North America (the geographical land areas of Canada, the United States and Mexico as determined by NOAA) and reveals a strong commonality with all the U.S. states—CO2 is not the strong influence on temperatures as suggested by those supporting a narrative of

In summary, there is not a single U.S. state that has a "climate emergency" or a "climate boiling" condition that is a direct result of CO2 atmospheric increases causing rising temperatures.

At least for the U.S., any warming experienced by states in the 21st century is much more likely associated with multiple well-known and powerful natural climate variations.

Additional regional and global temperature charts.

Notes: Excel used for all calculations. R2 calculation is based on calculated correlation of maximum temperatures (for each state) and atmospheric CO2 increase for all months of 21st century thru July 2023. Source for U.S. maximum monthly temperatures for each state; NOAA does not report state records for Hawaii - used the NOAA Honolulu's maximum temp records; source for Washington D.C. maximum temperatures; source for North America's monthly average temperature anomalies (no maximum temps available); and source for monthly CO2 atmospheric levels.

Despite July's Jump In Global Temperatures, Globe Is Still Cooling Over Past 8+ Years

(click on image to enlarge)

Per NOAA, there was a +0.05°C increase in the temperature anomaly over the June 2023 reading.

That means there has been an increase of +0.23°C since July 2022.

In comparison, that 12-month increase pales to the 12-month increase of 0.71°C for February, 1995; the +0.54°C increase for December 1939; and the July 1987 +0.33°C jump

Further analysis of NOAA global temperature dataset confirms that the planet remains in a slight cooling trend over the last 104 months (8.7 years) during a period where atmospheric CO2 levels surged by another 21ppm.

The end result is a negative correlation (-0.030) between CO2 and NOAA temperature anomalies from December 1, 2014 through July 2023. In fact, the weak correlation between these two variables stretches back 10 years to June 2013.

This result completely lays waste to the greenhouse gas 'hopium' that CO2 is a "control knob" that policymakers and scientists can twist and turn to manage and stabilize the climate.

If CO2 is not responsible for the recent warming in 2023, then what are the factors involved that increased temperatures in July and likely will continue to do so in the near future?

This article by a well known climate scientists provides a detailed summary of all the climate factors that are driving 2023 temps up. (Beware, the science is complicated, which reflects the complexities involved within the non-linear and chaotic world climate. And light-years more complicated than the simplistic belief that CO2 is some sort of a "control knob" for achieving climate stability.)

Additional global and regional temp charts.

Notes: Excel used for all calculations and plots. Sources: Global temp anomalies & CO2 levels.

2023 Hawaii Wildfires & Drought: Did CO2 Cause It To Rain Less On The Island of Maui?

In our first article about the recent Maui wildfires, we addressed the issue of whether "global boiling" climate change (aka global warming) due to CO2 growth was the cause of the devastating fires.

Per the NOAA empirical temperature data for Maui, the short answer is that CO2-induced global warming was not the culprit.

Besides the claim that Maui's temperature must have increased due to higher levels of atmospheric CO2, there is also the claim that the growth of CO2 in the atmosphere is to blame for the recent lack of Maui's rainfall.

Not surprisingly, the factual Kahului, Maui empirical evidence from NOAA scientific research does not support that claim either.

This chart plots Maui's monthly precipitation anomalies (monthly amounts above and below normal) and the twelve-month moving average of global atmospheric CO2 ppm levels. (Click on chart to enlarge.)

Visually, there does not appear to be any relationship between CO2 and rain.

And the statistics confirm that the visual intuitiveness is correct.

There is no cause and effect relationship (a R² that essentially is zero) between CO2 and precipitation anomalies over the extended period from 1954 through July 2023.

In addition, there is the claim that the current Maui drought, due to low precipitation levels, is unique, even historically unprecedented, due to recent "climate change".

For most people, the island of Maui is considered a lush paradise. But instead of that perception, in reality, many areas of Maui actually have the characteristics of a dry climate.

Historically for Kahului, Maui, its average annual rainfall of 16.6 inches is 4 inches less than that of Flagstaff, Arizona, which is considered a semi-arid climate. And the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico, in comparison, has an annual precipitation amount some 43 inches greater than Kahului, Maui. (The wildfire devastated town of Lahaina is located in an area even drier than Kahului.)

Maui has a yearly wet-season and a dry-season, each lasting approximately 6 months. During the dry-season (May–October), the rainfall falls to well below 1 inch monthly during the warmer spring and summer months.

The above chart includes a six-month average plot (dark blue) that reveals the seasonal precipitation cycle.

Note that the chart plots three distinct time spans of precipitation anomalies (the gaps in months/years are due to the absence of climate records for those months and years).

However, each time span reveals the seasonal cycle as well as extended periods of below-normal rainfall.

This next chart specifically compares the precipitation anomalies for Kahului from the period of January 1905 through July 1909 versus the period of January 2019 through July 2023.

(click on to enlarge)

Both of these time spans are considered drought periods with below-normal rainfall.

As shown on the chart, the plots of the six-month and 36-month running averages match very closely for each time span. In addition, the current period ending in July 2023 had an average monthly rainfall of 1.2 inches versus 1.1 inches for the 1905–1909 average.

Conclusions: Per the evidence, atmospheric CO2 levels do not have an impact on Maui's central-western region's precipitation amounts; the historical rainfall record establishes that the western and central parts of Maui are a dry climate prone to droughts due to low annual rainfall amounts; and, the current shortfall of precipitation is neither unique nor unprecedented in the least.

For explanations on the causes of the Maui wildfire disaster, read this article, this article, this article, and this article; and this research paper regarding Hawaii droughts.

Note: Source of precipitation data. Excel used for all calculations and the plotting of charts. NOAA's climate records for Maui Hawaii have multiple gaps in monthly data. The months with no climate data were not utilized in any calculations or plots. Lahaina, Maui does not have a NOAA weather/climate station. Instead NOAA relies on the climate station located at the Kahului Airport. Precipitation & temperature monthly averages are very similar: Lahaina and Kahului. Explanation of climate for Hawaii's multiple islands.

Maui Island Hawaii Wildfires Due To "Global Boiling"? An Example Of The "Climate Emergency"?

The Lahaina city of Maui, Hawaii has been decimated by large wildfires over the past week. The image below (image source) shows the primary area of Maui that has suffered.

While arsonists are suspected to have contributed to fire's devastation, there are certain regional weather conditions that make the Hawaiian Islands a geographic area that is very prone to wildfires.

This article about the recent fires provides a good background on the natural conditions that make Maui very susceptible to fire outbreaks.

Unfortunately, there are those who are claiming that global warming (aka "boiling") and climate change are the cause of the fires. The claims are based on the hypothesis that the growth of atmospheric CO2 levels, due to human combustion of fossil fuels, are the direct cause of all warming, weather events and climate change.

Many go as far as to claim that the world is in a "climate emergency," and wildfires are an example of that.

As with all these loud and assertive anti-science claims about global warming, atmospheric CO2 did not produce an environment of large warming that would produce Maui extreme temperature conditions, thus causing the Maui fires.

This is factually proven using NOAA empirical scientific evidence, which reveals that the Maui Island temperatures have actually been on a declining trend over the past 10+ years. (see below chart).

The correlation of Maui's temperatures and atmospheric CO2 growth is actually negative over those 10 years, which totally falsifies the climate alarmists' hypothesis.

Conclusions: It's another case of 'those stubborn facts.' And by the way, there is no "climate emergency" and "global boiling" is pure propaganda nonsense.

Part #2 of Maui fire "climate change" articles.

Additional regional and global temperature charts.

Notes: Excel used for the temperature anomaly plot & calculations. Source of Hawaiian regional temp anomalies & atmospheric CO2 levels.

NOAA's Empirical Refutation of The UN's "Global Boiling" Propaganda

The United Nation's bureaucracy has unfortunately been a leading source of climate change misinformation and propaganda. The most recent example is the wildly false assertion by the UN secretary general, António Guterres, that the world has reached an era of "global boiling".

First, the global temperature currently hovers around 14.14 degrees Celsius, which is essentially 86 degrees below the UN's boiling propaganda statement.

Second, NOAA has just published the July USCRN temperature results that documents that the average temperature for July 2023 was significantly below the 2012 July temperature - below by +0.62°C. (Description of the USCRN gold-standard weather/climate reporting network.)

Not only is the July 2020 temperature below the July 2012 temp, the chart reveals that U.S. warming has actually experienced a declining trend for an extended period.

That very slight cooling trend is now stretching from the beginning of June 2011 through the end of July 2023. That's a total of 146 months (12+ years).

And that 12+ years consists of a correlation between monthly atmospheric CO2 levels and U.S. temperatures of -0.0093.

Yes, a negative correlation, which is forbidden to be spoken of by the climate narrative community.

Why? Because it totally contradicts the alarmist agenda that CO2 causes global warming (and now "global boiling") that the UN and others propagandize.

So, the global temperature is below '"boiling" by 86 degrees and NOAA's U.S. temperature data confirms a long-lasting cooling span - in combo, a complete refutation of the UN claims and all the others that report that anti-science nonsense.

Additional regional and global temperature charts.

Note: Source of USCRN temperature data. Excel used to calculate/plot chart data.

Climate Warming Doomsday Scenario: What, Me Worry? Part5

Should anyone worry about "global boiling" - the newest climate-porn phrase being used by the scientific illiterate?

There's good news: The answer is 'no'! In the real-world, there exists no factual evidence supporting the fantastical assertion that our world is boiling, which would obviously lead to a doomsday scenario.

Neither natural warming nor anthropogenic warming is creating an unstable climate that would be represented by accelerating temperature increases of greater and greater magnitude.

As these two charts of satellite climate measurements depict, global temperatures follow a change pattern of increasing/decreasing magnitudes over different time spans, similar to the pattern of accelerating and decelerating temperatures revealed by the chart accompanying the very first article of this series. 

The repeating pattern of temperature change is absolutely NOT a result of ever-increasing human CO2 emissions but instead of natural climate origins.

Visually, it is readily apparent that growing atmospheric CO2 levels are not associated with temperature changes.

To confirm that numerically, the average temperature change (i.e. black curve) has a low correlation with the increasing CO2 levels (i.e. green dots) that results in a barely positive R² of +0.002. For the bottom chart, the R² is +0.008.

Respectively, the monthly linear trend of the average temperature magnitude change for the top chart is flat-lined at a minuscule +0.00006; and for the bottom chart, it is an equally unimpressive, tiny +0.00013.

 

Literally, the long-term magnitude of these temperature changes is climatically insignificant.

What, me worry about "global boiling"? There is no need since the empirical evidence unequivocally debunks this.

Part1, Part2, Part3 & Part4 of 'What, me worry?' series.

Additional historical, global and regional temperature charts.

Notes: Excel used for all calculations and plots. Sources: Global satellite temp anomalies & CO2 levels.