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UN's Climate Porn Ignores Climate Reality of Empirical Evidence

In their effort to persuade the public that CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels are broiling the planet, UN chief, Antonio Guterres, and his globaltarian comrades spread a narrative of fringe climate porn, such as ClimateBreakdown, ClimateChaos, or GlobalBoiling.

However, they are all ignoring actual scientific empirical evidence that powerfully contradicts this narrative propaganda.

Importantly, throughout the past 8+ years, climate expert projections and their climate models of the global warming trend have been grievously inaccurate. This incredible inaccuracy is hidden from the public by the UN, by the government-funded scientists, and by the mainstream legacy press.

Chart #1 compares the actual slight cooling of the world with the one predicted by "expert" climate scenario models.

(The chart's RCP8.5 scenario model results (red curve) are publicized by those spreading climate change disaster propaganda, and unfortunately, often used by real policymakers.)

Significantly, this 8+ year comparison clarifies just how inaccurate climate models can be when challenged by real-world climate observations.

The inaccuracy stems from the fact that climate models are based on the primary belief that CO2 emissions, from the combustion of fossil fuels, are the major force that produces global warming, which leads to "dangerous" climate change.

Thus, the climate models' dependency on CO2 - a trace greenhouse gas - is spectacularly evident when examining correlations, such as that depicted in chart #2.

The RCP8.5 scenario's model temperature anomaly variation is almost entirely explained (R² = 0.8698) by the increase in atmospheric CO2.

However, when the same correlation analysis is done with NOAA's real-world temperature anomalies, a much different result emerges.

Chart #3's scatter plot has an R² of 0.0000, which strongly indicates real climate temperatures are divorced from the additional CO2 being added to the atmosphere.

Yet, regardless of the above climate empirical facts, the UN chief and others continue to push the anti-science belief that every single molecule of the CO2 greenhouse gas causes more global warming.

And the result of this official CO2 fear-mongering propaganda is the situation where a vocal activist minority truly believes there exists a global #ClimateCrisis; a #ClimateEmergency; a #ClimateBreakdown; a #GlobalBoiling; #ClimateChaos; or even an #ExistentialThreat. (These Twitter 'X' hashtags confirm a wide range of CO2 paranoia, fringe fears, exaggerations and wild claims that are being generated from the official UN PR narrative.)

Additional global and regional temp charts.

Note: Excel used for all calculations and plotting. Source of NOAA monthly global temperature anomalies. Source for CMIP5 RCP8.5 model anomalies.  Source for CO2 monthly data. The correlation scatter plots x-axis represents the rolling 12-month total CO2 ppm growth, starting with the 12-month's growth prior to January 2015.

"Global Warming": California's Lawsuit Against Big Oil Suffers From Lack Of Actual Warming Trend

California's new lawsuit against Big Oil revolves around the state's allegation that oil executives knew that the CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels caused dangerous global warming. Except when it doesn't.

NOAA's climate monitoring network updates California's temperature measurements every month. And as the end of August 2023, California's average daily maximum temperatures for each month reveals there has been no warming trend since December 2010.

Zero warming trend in spite of the injection of approximately 400 billion metric tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere since 2010.

Visually, it's obvious that maximum temperatures have been in a decline mode for an extended period.

Plus, as the bottom chart reveals, there currently exists no correlation (R² < +0.01) between atmospheric CO2 levels and maximum temperatures.

With the lack of any recent empirical evidence that CO2 is producing a dangerous and rapid warming trend, the lawsuit would appear to be on very shaky ground in terms of scientific accuracy.

(click on to enlarge)

Interesting fact. NOAA reports that the month/year when California had its highest daily maximum average was way back in July 1931, well before the era of large industrial/consumer CO2 emissions.

Additional regional and global temperature charts.

Notes: Source of California maximum temperature data. Source of CO2 data. Excel used for all calculations & plots. The right axis of chart represents the monthly continuous accumulated increase of atmospheric CO2 ppm for the prior 12 months.

U.S. Maximum Historical Temperatures Versus August 2023 & Correlation With CO2

In regards to U.S. maximum temperatures, the first chart displays the historical maximum monthly temperature values for the United States as published by NOAA, similar to this prior article about historical precipitation. (Note that the August 2023 maximum temperature is shown as a green dot on the chart.)

And the bottom chart is a scatter plot for the last 60 years of monthly maximum temperature anomalies along with the corresponding monthly atmospheric CO2 levels.

The scatter plot includes a best fit regression line, which provides the basis for the strength of the relationship calculation (R² = +0.098) between the two variables, temperature anomalies and CO2 levels.

With the R² being a minuscule +0.098 for the 60-year period, it objectively indicates a nonexistent relationship between U.S. maximum temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels.

And since statistics demonstrate that CO2 levels have little effect on U.S. temperatures, it follows that emissions from the burning of fossil fuels into the atmosphere have little to no effect.

(click on to enlarge)

Note: Source for max temperature data; source for CO2 data. Excel used for all calculations and plotting.

Additional regional and global temperature charts.

U.S. Precipitation & CO2: August 2023 Versus Historical Record

The monthly historical climate records that NOAA maintains and updates each month indicates that current U.S. precipitation levels are in the mainstream of historical measurements.

Since the record precipitation (4.47 inches) of May 2019, the average monthly precipitation has been 2.54 inches versus the last 60-year's mean of 2.58 inches. (See top chart.)

The bottom chart is a scatter plot of monthly precipitation amounts and the corresponding monthly atmospheric CO2 levels. The plot includes a best fit regression line.

The R² of +0.004 between CO2 levels and precipitation amounts indicates that there is no relationship between these two climate variables over the last 60 years.

U.S. precipitation levels are a product of natural weather/climate patterns. They are not due to the burning of fossil fuels.

 

(click on to enlarge)

Local, state, & federal politicians that say CO2 emissions are the cause of large or small precipitation events are part of the problem -  they are $$$ hungry climate change grifters under the influence of special interests.

Note: Source for precipitation data; source for CO2 data. Excel used for all calculations and plotting.

Climate Reality Debunks Latest Antarctic Warming Hysteria

Climate researchers seem to be always producing studies that say the Antarctic is warming too fast and presents a catastrophic threat, and then news outlets blindly report the hype.

But as usual, the actual real-world Antarctic measurements disseminated by the professionals of climate monitoring debunk this latest hysteria that the fear-mongering Guardian is promoting.

Utilizing the NOAA surface and UAH lower troposphere datasets, both report a flat warming/cooling trend for 36+ years, since May 1987.

Besides these datasets popping the hyped-puffery of Antarctic "rapid" warming, they also confirm that "global" warming is not really global. There is indeed regional warming, but "global" infers the entire world, and that isn't accurate.

Just as in the Antarctic region, another example of the missing "global" warming is the U.S., which has experienced a very slight cooling trend since June 2011.

For both the Antarctic and the U.S., those stubborn facts keep getting in the way of the scary climate narrative.

Additional global and regional temp charts.

More Proof That CO2 Climate "Control Knob" Is Bogus

Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) published their August 2023 global lower troposphere (LT) dataset, and it validates that global temperatures have increased over recent months. However, the world remains in a very slight cooling trend since the start of 2015—over 8.5 years.

(click on to enlarge)

By combining the RSS data with NOAA's CO2 data, it's possible to calculate whether the past three years of rising atmospheric CO2 are causing LT temperatures to increase.

As this chart confirms, the monthly moving three-year CO2 increases have zero correlation (R2 = 0.00007) with monthly temperatures.

It also affirms that the widely claimed "control knob" is nothing more than political science fiction.

Additional global and regional temp charts.

Notes: Excel used for all calculations and plotting.

 

Whether It's A "Climate Crisis" Or A "Climate Boiling" Claim, Science Facts Refute The Hyperbole

There is scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric CO2 levels from fossil fuel combustion emissions will raise global temperatures but is there any scientific evidence that CO2 is causing a runaway, global warming tipping point that would result in an existential threat, a climate crisis, a climate emergency, a climate breakdown, climate boiling, or a collapse of civilization as a whole?

In order for the claimed tipping point of runaway warming from CO2 emissions to become reality, there are two characteristics that would be necessary:

A. There would need to be a significant correlation between increases in atmospheric CO2 and ensuing rapid acceleration of warming increases;

B. There would need to be a significant correlation between increases in atmospheric CO2 and consistent temperature increases of serious magnitude.

Both of these temperature characteristics would represent positive feedbacks of an unstable climate in action.

To determine if these positive feedbacks of accelerating warming and large magnitude temperature changes exist for our modern climate, NOAA temperature and CO2 data from the last 25 years can be used to establish the correlations for different time spans (moving 12-month, moving 60-month, moving 120-month and moving 180-month).

Along with the best fit linear regression lines, the relationship R²s are shown on the following 8 charts. The left column contains scatter plot charts revealing the relationship between warming acceleration and CO2 increases; and the right column has scatter plot charts that show the relationship between the magnitude of temperature changes and CO2 increases.

Over the four different time spans plotted for the entire 25 years since July 1998, the correlations for warming acceleration and large magnitude temperature changes are essentially very weak to non-existent, which indicates that increasing CO2 in the atmosphere has little impact on the climate.

Conclusion: The world and civilization are not a risk from the burning of fossil fuels that are claimed to be causing a global warming tipping point, or an existential threat, or a climate crisis, or a climate emergency. Such assertions are not supported by the real scientific data.

Additional global and regional temp charts.

Notes: Excel used for all calculations and plotting. Source of NOAA monthly global temperature anomalies. FTP link to download monthly CO2 levels.

Global Warming Surges: From 1850 To The Current Climate

A very quick overview of the global temperature evolution.

According to climate science researchers, there have been several surges in global temperatures to higher levels since 1850.

By plotting the 1850 to July 2023 monthly NOAA global anomalies, visually it becomes clear when the temperature surges upward took place.

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There do exist different numeric and statistical manners in which to identify temperature shifts, but the temperature level shifts on this chart were identified simply by the self-evident grouping of the majority of anomalies for a given time period. (See anomalies grouped within black dashed lines.)

A summary of the five temperature periods from the chart:

Period1: From January 1850 through April 1937, this was an extended time span for both cooling and warming bursts but overall this 87+ year period experienced a small cooling trend of -0.01°C/decade. Notice that over the period's last 20 years, the global anomalies were rising.

Period2: Global temperatures were shifted up to a new base level from May 1937 through October 1976 (39.5 years). Despite the prominent shift up at the beginning of the period, there was a small cooling trend of -0.02°C/decade for the entire period.

Period3: From November 1976 through December 1996 (20.2 years), the first extended modern warming trend was established. There were two brief cooling spans during this period but overall the warming trend was +0.10°C/decade.

Period4: From January 1997 through August 2014 (17.7 years), the warming trend increased to +0.17°C/decade level, again with two cooling spans intermixed during the 17+ years.

Period5: From September 2014 through the end of July 2023 (8.9 years), the warming trend has been significantly reduced - almost being flat - when compared to the two prior warming periods.

While there are those who suggest that CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion are to blame for the significant shifts in global temperatures over the five different periods, the empirical science does not support the hypothesis that a trace atmospheric gas can cause abrupt changes.

A more likely explanation for the shifts is the natural oscillations and weather variations that are part and parcel of the world's climate.

For example, the well-known climate warming oscillation called 'El Niño' has taken place during all the periods at an average frequency of every five years. Climate researchers have noticed that climate temperature step-upward shifts seem to follow significant El Niño episodes.

Finally, it is possible to reduce the five periods to two very long-term periods: one cooling/flat and one warming. This can be accomplished if one strictly uses the change of the slope of the linear trend from negative to positive at a specific point over the entire length of time since 1850.

For the first long-term period - from1850 to December 1940 - there was a very slight negative slope (i.e., cooling). That amounts to 90.9 years with a trend that was practically flat, thus indicating that there had not been any significant warming over the 90+ years since the Little Ice Age (LIA), which is thought to have ended around 1850.

Using NOAA data, the very long-term positive warming trend starts in January 1941 and continues for 82.5 years, until the end of July 2023.

And if NOAA records are accepted as a trustworthy history of world temperatures, it would then be logical to conclude that a robust, significant temperature recovery from the extended LIA cold really did not begin until the early 1940s.

Additional global and regional temp charts.

Notes: Excel used for all calculations and plotting. Source of NOAA monthly global temperature anomalies.