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The Real Climate Science Crisis: The Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW) Hypothesis Is Without Scientific Evidence

For a hypothesis to reach the status of being a legit theory, it requires withstanding the onslaught of observed empirical evidence. The CAGW hypothesis is no such animal.

Known by its more contemporary aliases, such as ''climate crisis," "climate emergency," "climate collapse," or "existential threat," the CAGW has zero empirical evidence to support it.

Unlike the related hypothesis regarding greenhouse gases (GHG) and global warming, at least the GHG hypothesis has warming global temperature data that somewhat coincides with increasing atmospheric CO2 levels, putting aside the growing possibility that the purported cause-and-effect direction is probably the reverse.

In order to reach a CAGW climate disaster, global warming temperatures must change rapidly in an accelerating manner that will initiate a 'tipping point' for the climate.

The rapid acceleration would present its occurrence in a continuous increasing of the slope, i.e., trend, of temperatures, such as monthly temperatures. Each subsequent month would represent a greater temperature magnitude increase than the month before, hypothetically.

(click on to enlarge)

But those tipping point precursors are not occurring in the real-world climate.

For example, it is agreed by all climate scientists that oceans play a very major role in the world's climate and its global temperatures due to their being both the world's largest carbon sink and its largest heat content storage.

However, despite these characteristics, in totality, the global oceans HAVE NOT warmed since the year 2014. And certainly, there is no empirical evidence that oceans exhibit constant temperature increases of magnitude.

Quite the contrary, combined oceans exhibit a regular pattern of temperature decreases and increases, as the adjacent plot of NOAA's monthly ocean data indicates.

Specifically, this is a plot (dark blue) of moving 5-year temperature changes ending each month of the 60-year period from March 1963 through March 2023.

[Explanation: the first data point is the temperature change for the 60 months ending on March 30, 1963; and the chart's last temperature change data point is for the five 5 years (i.e. 60 months) ending on March 2023.]

The chart also includes a plot (green) of the moving 60-month CO2 level changes over the same sixty year period, plus a linear trend for both CO2 changes and ocean temperature changes.

The trend of the 60-month CO2 changes significantly exceeds the slight positive trend of ocean temperature changes by a factor of 117x. This huge differential undercuts the belief that global warming is primarily the result of GHGs. Which is confirmed by the paltry R^2 of +0.06 - an almost non-existent relationship between 5-year atmospheric CO2 changes and 5-year changes in ocean temperature.

Not only are the large increases in CO2 levels not causing a concerning uptick of temperature change magnitude, it also has not lead to any type of acceleration, per the linear trend since 1963.

Specifically, with a trend of a tiny +0.0001°C, that would project out 20 years to be an increase of 5-year temperature changes to an insignificant amount of +0.024 - definitely not an existential threat of 'runaway warming' or a CAGW 'climate crisis' as portrayed by bureaucrats, politicians and Hollywood celebrities.

So, if 5 years of increasing amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere barely influence 5-year changes in temperature over a 60-year span, either in magnitude or acceleration rate, then it is highly unlikely that this trace gas would cause a catastrophic climate disaster or an extinction event.

Thus, it is fair to state that for all those scientists pushing a narrative of an imminent climate change catastrophe from CO2 without the requisite empirical evidence, this has become the real climate science crisis facing society.

Additional global and regional temperature charts.

Notes: Temperature and CO2 data sources.Excel used to calculate 60-mth (5-yr) temperature and CO2 changes; used to calculate the respective trends; used to calculate correlation and r-squared; used to plot the chart.

Climate "Science": NOAA's Butchery of The Historical Scientific Temperature Record Continues

At the beginning of 2023, NOAA once again changed historical measurements in their surface temperature dataset.

This is a common action that NOAA applies way too frequently to historical information, which one could surmise, based on the following evidence, does not comport with the scientific goal of objectivity and truth.

Climatologist and scientist Ole Humlum is one of the few experts who has been tracking the temperature changes made by NOAA since 2008. In his monthly update, Dr. Humlum includes the below charts that aid in the visualization of NOAA's "scientific" adjustments.

This chart tracks the changes made to two calendar months, specifically January 1915 and January 2000.

click on to enlarge

For the month of January 2000 (red lines), modifications have now reached 70+ occurrences (each vertical line represents a change). Some changes are large, but most are small.

For the month of January 1915 (the blue lines), its temperature has been modified by NOAA 65+ times through April 2023

At the starting point of Dr. Humlum's tracking efforts, May 2008, the difference between these two Januarys was +0.39°C. That difference had reached +0.51 °C by April 2023.

Now, if these two Januarys were the only months modified by NOAA, it would be no big deal.

BUT, as Holum's second chart indicates, NOAA applies changes to all months going back to 1880. And the vast majority of changes since 1939 have been temperature increases, while those prior to 1940 were decreases.

Overall, NOAA has fabricated an increased warming rate since 1939 and has cut the warming rate in half from 1880 through 1939.

All accomplished via continuous adjustments since May 2008, which conveniently produce greater global warming for the modern era.

In the case of the most recent changes to the historical measurements made in January 2023, 1,575 of 1,716 past monthly temperatures reported in December 2022 were "updated"—91.8% overall.

For the decade of the 1880s, 114 months out of 120 were changed—that's 95%. The average monthly change for that decade was a cooling of -0.04°C. Those changes included June 1883 being cooled by a whopping -0.17°C.

As stated earlier, these changes to the historical temperatures do not appear to comport with unbiased objectivity or scientific truth. Instead, they seem very biased, with a non-randomness designed to support a political narrative—aka, "the climate crisis".

Note: Ole Humlum's charts include the acronym 'NCDC' - (NOAA's National Climate Data Center)