There is scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric CO2 levels from fossil fuel combustion emissions will raise global temperatures but is there any scientific evidence that CO2 is causing a runaway, global warming tipping point that would result in an existential threat, a climate crisis, a climate emergency, a climate breakdown, climate boiling, or a collapse of civilization as a whole?
In order for the claimed tipping point of runaway warming from CO2 emissions to become reality, there are two characteristics that would be necessary:
A. There would need to be a significant correlation between increases in atmospheric CO2 and ensuing rapid acceleration of warming increases;
B. There would need to be a significant correlation between increases in atmospheric CO2 and consistent temperature increases of serious magnitude.
Both of these temperature characteristics would represent positive feedbacks of an unstable climate in action.
To determine if these positive feedbacks of accelerating warming and large magnitude temperature changes exist for our modern climate, NOAA temperature and CO2 data from the last 25 years can be used to establish the correlations for different time spans (moving 12-month, moving 60-month, moving 120-month and moving 180-month).
Along with the best fit linear regression lines, the relationship R2s are shown on the following 8 charts. The left column contains scatter plot charts revealing the relationship between warming acceleration and CO2 increases; and the right column has scatter plot charts that show the relationship between the magnitude of temperature changes and CO2 increases.
Over the four different time spans plotted for the entire 25 years since July 1998, the correlations for warming acceleration and large magnitude temperature changes are essentially very weak to non-existent, which indicates that increasing CO2 in the atmosphere has little impact on the climate.
Conclusion: The world and civilization are not a risk from the burning of fossil fuels that are claimed to be causing a global warming tipping point, or an existential threat, or a climate crisis, or a climate emergency. Such assertions are not supported by the real scientific data.
Additional global and regional temp charts.
Notes: Excel used for all calculations and plotting. Source of NOAA monthly global temperature anomalies. FTP link to download monthly CO2 levels.