Despite 2024's celebrated growth in renewable energy (now 15% of global electricity), fossil fuels simultaneously hit all-time highs. This isn't an energy "transition"—it's an energy "addition."
Hydrocarbons still constitute 80% of the world's energy mix—barely down from 85% in 1990. The reality? Transitioning from fossil fuels is proving far more complex than projected.
Every major energy transformation throughout history has unfolded over decades, not years. Yet climate policies assume we can compress this timeline dramatically. Carbon emissions reached 37.4 gigatons in 2023—moving opposite to climate targets.
The U.S. set a goal for EVs to reach 50% of new car sales by 2030. Current reality? Just 10%—with automakers scaling back investments due to losses. Similarly, offshore wind production targets have been slashed by more than half.
The transition's estimated cost—$6 to $8 trillion annually by 2035—raises an obvious question: who pays? Meanwhile, nearly 600 million Africans lack basic electricity, prioritizing economic development over emissions reduction.
Russia's Ukraine invasion delivered a harsh lesson in energy security, with countries like Germany partially reversing green transitions to secure energy supplies.
Clean energy depends heavily on critical minerals facing significant supply constraints, with China controlling 80% of global supply chains—creating security concerns for Western nations.
Meanwhile, electricity demand surges with AI, data centers, and EVs straining grids. U.S. electricity consumption is projected to double by 2050.
The energy transition isn't failing—it's unfolding at the pace that physical and economic realities dictate. Successful navigation requires acknowledging these constraints rather than denying them.
Historical evidence makes one thing clear: energy transformations happen at their own pace—regardless of political declarations to the contrary.