C3

Global Warming Surges: From 1850 To The Current Climate

A very quick overview of the global temperature evolution.

According to climate science researchers, there have been several surges in global temperatures to higher levels since 1850.

By plotting the 1850 to July 2023 monthly NOAA global anomalies, visually it becomes clear when the temperature surges upward took place.

(click on to enlarge)

There do exist different numeric and statistical manners in which to identify temperature shifts, but the temperature level shifts on this chart were identified simply by the self-evident grouping of the majority of anomalies for a given time period. (See anomalies grouped within black dashed lines.)

A summary of the five temperature periods from the chart:

Period1: From January 1850 through April 1937, this was an extended time span for both cooling and warming bursts but overall this 87+ year period experienced a small cooling trend of -0.01°C/decade. Notice that over the period's last 20 years, the global anomalies were rising.

Period2: Global temperatures were shifted up to a new base level from May 1937 through October 1976 (39.5 years). Despite the prominent shift up at the beginning of the period, there was a small cooling trend of -0.02°C/decade for the entire period.

Period3: From November 1976 through December 1996 (20.2 years), the first extended modern warming trend was established. There were two brief cooling spans during this period but overall the warming trend was +0.10°C/decade.

Period4: From January 1997 through August 2014 (17.7 years), the warming trend increased to +0.17°C/decade level, again with two cooling spans intermixed during the 17+ years.

Period5: From September 2014 through the end of July 2023 (8.9 years), the warming trend has been significantly reduced - almost being flat - when compared to the two prior warming periods.

While there are those who suggest that CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion are to blame for the significant shifts in global temperatures over the five different periods, the empirical science does not support the hypothesis that a trace atmospheric gas can cause abrupt changes.

A more likely explanation for the shifts is the natural oscillations and weather variations that are part and parcel of the world's climate.

For example, the well-known climate warming oscillation called 'El Niño' has taken place during all the periods at an average frequency of every five years. Climate researchers have noticed that climate temperature step-upward shifts seem to follow significant El Niño episodes.

Finally, it is possible to reduce the five periods to two very long-term periods: one cooling/flat and one warming. This can be accomplished if one strictly uses the change of the slope of the linear trend from negative to positive at a specific point over the entire length of time since 1850.

For the first long-term period - from1850 to December 1940 - there was a very slight negative slope (i.e., cooling). That amounts to 90.9 years with a trend that was practically flat, thus indicating that there had not been any significant warming over the 90+ years since the Little Ice Age (LIA), which is thought to have ended around 1850.

Using NOAA data, the very long-term positive warming trend starts in January 1941 and continues for 82.5 years, until the end of July 2023.

And if NOAA records are accepted as a trustworthy history of world temperatures, it would then be logical to conclude that a robust, significant temperature recovery from the extended LIA cold really did not begin until the early 1940s.

Additional global and regional temp charts.

Notes: Excel used for all calculations and plotting. Source of NOAA monthly global temperature anomalies.

What Existential Threat? Climate Doomers Are Ignorant That Climate Change History Repeats

Today's climate change doomers who preach that global warming from the highest atmospheric CO2 levels in modern times is leading to an existential threat of catastrophic and world-ending disasters are most definitely not well versed in real world climate history.

The past extreme climate events in the U.S. are noteworthy as examples of past climate change that rival any events occurring in the 21st century. Take the case of 1934.

In the first 6 months of 1934, the U.S. was suffering from a severe drought of little precipitation across a wide area of the contiguous states.

And the current lack of 2022 YTD precipitation, as documented by NOAA below, looks eerily similar.

Despite the similarity, the 1934 drought event suffered from a lack of precipitation that was at least 2.2 times more intense (when comparing precipitation anomalies) than the current 2022 event. The 1934 YTD period was the 2nd driest ever, while the 2022 YTD ranks only as the 23rd driest.

Yet, the more intense 1934 period event took place under a condition of atmospheric CO2 levels that was significantly lower than today's level.

Unfortunately, those that are in charge of U.S. climate and energy policies will remain ignorant of the way that climate history repeats itself, thus guaranteeing their polices will be an abject failure.

Prior article one and article two regarding: "What Existential Threat?".

Droughts: New Mexico

(click on to enlarge)

Droughts happen in New Mexico. Always have. Always will. It's called climate change.

 

h/t: https://realclimatescience.com/

Climate Emergency Due To Global Warming Doomsday? Not So Fast, Greta

(click to enlarge)

As numerous 'C3' articles on past warming has pointed out, our modern global warming is not so "unprecedented" as the scientifically illiterate alarmist doomers claim - here's looking at you, Greta Thunberg, know-nothing Hollywood celebrities, and mainstream mocking bird "journalists."

As this chart indicates, in the very distant past, temperatures were indeed at times warmer or match what we are currently experiencing.

Per the peer-reviewed study, across a span of 2,500 years researchers were able to reconstruct the bottom waters of a fjord.

The findings:

"Asteman et al. first note that "the reconstructed temperature range (2.7-7.8 °C) is within the present-day annual variability, documented from instrumental temperature measurements in the fjord's deepest basin since 1890." Next, they point out that "the Gulmar Fjord winter bottom water temperature record shows both centennial and multidecadal variability and has a striking resemblance to climate periods historically known in northern Europe over the last 2500 years." Those periods include the Roman Warm Period (RWP), Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP), Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Little Ice Age (LIA) and Current Warm Period (CWP).

According to Asteman et al., temperatures during the RWP (prior to ~ AD 450) were approximately 2.5 °C higher than the 1961-1999 mean, encompassing a temperature range of 5.4-7.9 °C. During the DACP (~ AD 450-850), temperatures were more variable but stayed in the range of 4-8 °C. The MWP, which the authors say occurred around AD 850-1350, coincided with a grand solar maximum with water temperatures ranging between 5.4 and 7.6 °C. Thereafter, temperatures cooled once again during the LIA, with bottom water temperature averaging 2-3 °C lower than the instrumental 1961-1999 temperature mean and hovering between a range of 2.9 to 6.6 °C.Finally, at the end of the record, temperatures warmed up again. However, Asteman et al. report that the contemporary warming of the 20th century "does not stand out in the 2500-year perspective and is of the same magnitude as the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Climate Anomaly."

Of course, all that past warming was due to normal climatic oscillations and fluctuations within various cycles. This past warming had nothing to do with CO2 and other emitted greenhouse gases.

And just as occurred in the past, it is highly likely that a major portion of the warming since the Little Ice Age is also natural.

Additional historical temperature charts.

2019: Was It An Unprecedented Doomsday Summer In Europe?

No, it was not. And another alarmist doomsday claim bites the dust.

As with everything in climate change, nothing is unprecedented. The warm and dry Europe summers over the last two years are no exception.

Per this article, scientists examined evidence using dendroclimatology techniques and concluded that the Medieval Warming Period produced similar high temperatures and droughts in northern Germany some 1,000 years ago. And the result was most definitely not a climate doomsday event

As it happens, the High Middle Ages took place 1,000 years ago during this time of a milder and warmer climate. The better climate was key to producing a more robust civilization with impressive population gains, coupled with greater agriculture opportunity and capabilities that helped stimulate economic markets and trade. 

Of course, nothing lasts forever in nature, and as the climate made its move into the cooling period known as the Little Ice Age, the great societal gains of the Climate Optimum either stagnated or were vastly decreased across a wide swath of Europe.

These same scientists also investigated the doomsday claim that Germany's wonderful forests would be devastated by today's warming and drier conditions.

Their findings contradicted the alarmist claims.

"The authors prove once again that our forests are growing much faster today than in the past, because agriculture (also traffic & industry) provides them with a lot of fixed nitrogen (ammonium salts). The modestly increased CO2 content of today’s air also allows the trees to open the stomata of the leaves for a shorter period of time, thus limiting water losses. In other words, our industrial civilization is considerably HELPING the forest by supplying it with building materials and even water indirectly."

Another Study Demolishes The Simpleton Belief That CO2 Influences The Climate

Let's be brutally honest: the gullible and very stupid have been brainwashed to believe the propaganda that human CO2 emissions have a significant climate change impact resulting in severe weather events.

As this chart from a peer-reviewed research journal indicates, since ancient times, the climate has been in a constant state of change causing extremely low and high weather events, regardless of the atmospheric CO2 levels.

This group of researchers analyzed an almost 5 century record of streamflow volumes in the Southern Tibetan Plateau. Streamflow volume is driven by precipitation and weather extremes in either direction would be identified with this type of analysis.

Their findings?

"As seen there, perhaps the most striking feature of the record is the short eight year decline in streamflow from the highest value (487.1 m3 s-1) in 1871 to the lowest value (205.4 m3 s-1) of the nearly five-century-long record, which sharp transition was a completely natural occurrence and could not have been due to CO2 (because the vast bulk of the modern CO2 rise has occurred over the past six decades). Aside from the above-mentioned event, the record displays considerable variability at multiple time scales, yet there is no obvious trend or indication that there is anything unusual, unnatural or unprecedented in recent years of the streamflow record that would indicate rising atmospheric CO2 is having an effect....Further analyses indicate these periodicities are likely natural in origin; they correspond well with and are likely significantly driven by ENSO, the Asian summer monsoon, and other large-scale climate circulation features."

Additional examples of research indicating little, if any, climate change attributes related to CO2 levels.

Snowpocalypses Are Increasing? Researchers Debunk That Flaky Alarmist Claim

Climate doomsday snowflakes believe that snowflake storm intensity and frequency are increasing, due to man-made climate change from CO2 emissions.

To press there unsubstantiated claims, they even created new names - snowapocalypse, snowmageddon, snowzilla - for normal winter related weather events that used be called 'snowstorms' in more sane times.

Have CO2 emissions increased the intensity and frequency of modern era snowstorms versus the weather experience of the past?

Nope.

The adjacent graph represents the latest peer-reviewed research examining the historical record of large snowstorms over the past 1,000+ years in the Mediterranean region.

As the researchers documented, both the intensity and frequency of modern-era "snowpocalypses" are neither extraordinary nor exceptional when empirically analyzed in the full context of historical records.

"In particular, less snow fell during the Medieval Warm Period (~800-1300) while snowfall was much more prevalent and severe thereafter during the Little Ice Age (~1300-1850), which latter era witnessed the two "snowiest" centuries of the past millennium (the 17th and 16th centuries). Milder conditions followed thereafter with reduced snowfall severity conditions occurring from the 18th century onward to today. And of the most recent decades, Diodato et al. say that "snow occurrences have remained unchanged," adding that "the recent reduction in Italian snowfall intensity is not unprecedented over the past millennium, since comparable patterns of low snowfall intensity also occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly.""

Another example of 'those pesky stubborn facts' obliterating the climate change doomsday cult's narrative.

Additional severe weather event graphs.

Another Study and Another Blow To Consensus "Fact" That Modern Climate Warming Is Unprecedented

Study after study has provided a multiplicity of evidence that the modern 21st century warming is not unprecedented, much to the chagrin and angst of elite alarmists and doomsday claimants.

Now we have a recent peer-reviewed study that examines 2,000 years of temperatures, which clearly reveals a past that indeed was warmer than present (see adjacent chart).

"Aside from the obvious millennial-scale climate oscillation seen in the temperature reconstruction, it is important to point out that there is nothing unusual, unnatural or unprecedented about current temperatures on the southern Tibetan Plateau (STP). As indicated by the horizontal red line depicting the current temperature, there have been multiple times during the past two millennia when temperatures were warmer than present, including the 400 year period from 850-1250 AD, despite their being 50% less CO2 in the atmosphere than there is today. Because of this fact, it is clear that rising atmospheric CO2 is having little, if any, effect on current STP temperatures witnessed during the Current Warm Period."

"But if not CO2, what is or could be the cause of the 20th century warming? Based on additional analyses performed by Guo et al., it was their conclusion that changes in solar irradiance "played the most important role in influencing the climatic variabilities over the STP on a multi-centennial timescale.""

Conclusion: Mainstream media, Democrat politicians, and Hollywood celebrities continue to spread consensus anti-science claims in regards to the current global warming facts.

Latest Peer-Reviewed Research: Canadian North Experienced Warmer Temperature Periods Than Modern Era

Both higher and lower temperature spans during pre-industrial periods are evident in the boreal forested areas of Quebec, Canada.

"Hoping to provide some additional knowledge of Holocene climate fluctuations in the boreal region of north-eastern Canada, the six researchers thus developed a new summer temperature proxy by analyzing chironomid assemblages from lake sediment cores obtained from Lac Aurelié. The new record spanned 8200 years with an average temporal resolution of 45 years."

During the Holocene Thermal Maximum, temperatures were approximately 0.9°C warmer than now; and during the Medieval Warming Period, temperatures were about 1.0°C higher than in modern era.

The Little Ice Age period from the 1400's to 1800's had summer temperatures cooler than modern era by 2.1°C.

"In light of the above findings, it would appear that there is nothing unusual, unnatural or unprecedented about current summer temperatures in central Quebec, which fall well within the range of natural variability for this area."

Referenced article on peer-reviewed study.

Peer-Reviewed Confirmation: Growth of Human CO2 Does Not Result In Unusual Climate Warming

There is the following science consensus: the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis has never been empirically validated outside the confines of a computer simulation.

Essentially, across many parts of the world, the lack of warming and the lack of unusual warming - i.e. unprecedented, exceptional warming - confirms that the fear of human CO2-driven catastrophic warming is likely very misplaced.

Similar to the recent scientific findings of unexceptional modern warming for many parts of the world, such as in the U.S., across Antarctica, and multiple other regions of the world, scientists in China have analyzed a 350+ year climate record and found modern warming is not unusual versus the warming of earlier periods in the record. 

Per this study:

"In general, the average length of cold periods was shorter than that of warm periods. The cold period of 1869–1877 was the longest and coldest cool period had a mean of 17.63°C. The longest warm period extended from 1655 to 1668, and the warmest period in AD 1719–1730 had a mean of 20.37°C. However, we should point out that the rapid warming during the 20th century was not especially obvious in our reconstructed RLST."

The scientists also determined that human CO2 was not a factor driving the warming and cooling analyzed.

"Accompanied by significant peaks at 60.2 and 73 years, the continuously periodicities around 49–114 years in our regional temperature reconstruction might tentatively be related to PDO, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation...as well as solar activity...The AMO was an important driver of multidecadal variations in summer climate not only in North America and western Europebut also in the East Asia...The 60.2-year peak associated with AMO demonstrated that multidecadal variations in late summer temperature in the NWSP NWSP [northwestern Sichuan Plateau, China ] might be controlled by AMO."

This 2016 study from China adds to the enormous amount of empirical evidence demonstrating that an all encompassing modern "global" warming from human CO2 does not exist.

The scientific evidence is unequivocal: There exist huge regional climate swaths of the globe that have mildly warmed in an unexceptional manner during the modern industrial/consumer era; and there exist multiple large areas that even lack any regional climate-significant modern warming whatsoever. 

Additional modern global and regional temperature charts; and historical temperature charts.

Facts Don't Lie: Unprecedented Climate Change

There was climate change.

There is climate change.

And there will be climate change.

This peer-reviewed study produced the adjacent charts for the regional area of the American Southwest.

Although the study was primarily about climate modeling for future climate variability, it was focused on the severe climate variation of the Little Ice Age (LIA).

The charts provide ample factual proof, along with the study's own premise, that our modern climate change is not unprecedented.

Whether it be drought conditions or temperature extremes, the past climate was anything but stable.

Note that the bottom chart shows the modern recent warming (RW) finally returning to the levels of around 1000AD and the extended Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) period.

Simply stated: facts don't lie, and there is nothing humans can do to stop natural climate change; and, the extremes it produces without any help from CO2.

Additional historical charts.  

Fake Climate Science: Remember When Mainstream Media, Obama & Other "Experts" Claimed Severe Weather Was Increasing?

(click on chart to enlarge)

A new focused effort by a team of researchers analyzed 26 decades of hurricane activity, covering the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) through 2012 for the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico water regions. 

As most scientists agree, be they orthodox or skeptic, the world has been modestly warming since the end of the LIA.

Yet the proponents of global warming alarmism "science" have claimed that severe weather, such as hurricanes, has increased dramatically due to this rather modest warming.

These expert claims were primarily based on simulations from climate models (and less so on the actual empirical evidence) which has become a sure fire methodology of producing bass-ackwards fake science.

This new empirical study presents the evidence from the last 260 years of hurricane activity and the result is irrefutable as the adjacent chart reveals. Not only has hurricane activity not increased across the wide areas examined, the activity has actually been on a slow declining trend.

"In their intriguing analysis published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, the four-member research team of Rojo-Garibaldi et al. developed a new database of historical hurricane occurrences in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, spanning twenty-six decades over the period 1749 to 2012. Statistical analysis of the record revealed "the hurricane number is actually decreasing in time," which finding is quite stunning...as the Mexican research team indicates, "when analyzing the entire time series built for this study, i.e., from 1749 to 2012, the linear trend in the number of hurricanes is decreasing"."

What truly makes this a head-exploding study for celebrity "scientists" is not only the fact the findings are the opposite of what they predicted, but that this Mexican scientific team tied the decline to natural solar events, not human CO2 emissions. (See more information on the study.)

Additional peer-reviewed articles and severe-weather charts.

Extreme Drought: British Columbia's Vancouver Island Climate Change Record

It is unequivocally true that climate change, both mild and extreme, is always happening - paleoclimatology research evidence establishes that. 

There is no debate that climate change existed prior to humans' impact on Earth, and will continue regardless of whether human CO2 emissions persist or cease.

Scientists continue to investigate past climate change events to better understand modern climate change, including extreme drought.

Case in point: scientists recently published peer-reviewed research that identified extreme drought periods on Canada's Vancouver Island, specifically the British Columbia Tsable River region.

Their research confirmed that since 1520AD, and prior to the instrumental record, extreme droughts took place that were of equal severity to those of modern droughts.

"Severe summer streamflow droughts are impacting many watersheds on Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Small coastal basins that are the primary water source for most communities and essential to Pacific salmon populations have been particularly affected...Explaining 63% of the instrumental streamflow variability...Our findings suggest that since 1520, 21 droughts occurred that were more extreme than recent “severe” events like those in 2003 and 2009. Recent droughts are therefore not anomalous relative to the ~400 year pre-instrumental record.....The influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on instrumental and modeled Tsable River summer streamflow is likely linked to the enhanced role of snowmelt in determining summer discharge during cool phases."

Past extreme drought events are clear examples of continuous natural climate change that the modern era cannot escape. Humans do not cause climate change, it just happens.

Previous drought and climate-history articles. Link to above image.

Latest Inconvenient Science: European Scientists Confirm Exxon Not To Blame For Climate Change

(click on to enlarge)

It would seem, despite the extreme denial of most anti-CO2 activists and UN bureaucrats, that the climate has always changed, frequently making dramatic shifts.

Even producing big shifts prior to the major morphing to a greenhouse gas emitting industrial/consumer society.

Despite the immense treasure of climate change empirical and anecdotal evidence of time past compiled by dedicated researchers, scientists are still conducting new research to delineate the scope and breadth of past changes.

This latest research, done by a group of European scientists, focused on the Northern Hemisphere's hydroclimatology responses to temperature change over 12 centuries. Their findings included:

"...report that (1,2) "proxy evidence does not support the tendency in simulations for wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier in a warmer climate," that (3) their "hydroclimate reconstruction does not support a general unprecedented intensification of the hydrological cycle in the twentieth century, associated with both more extreme wet and dry conditions, as simulated by an ensemble of models," and that (4) "this finding is in line with recent analyses of instrumental data reporting limited evidence for an intensification of wet and dry anomalies under current global warming,"."  Nature 532: 10.1038/nature17418.

In summary, their extensive analysis of the hydrological evidence does not comport with the simulated findings of the most advanced CO2-centric climate models available (surprise, surprise).

Clearly, the accompanying graph depicts the never ending condition of natural climate change, providing further proof that human fossil fuel emissions - and Exxon - are not to blame.

Prior articles on historical climate change.

Empirical Evidence: Climate Change Driven By Non-CO2 Factors, Experts Find

(click to enlarge -- image source)

It is indisputable that significant climate change is a never ending condition: Earth's climate, due to internal and external forces, is inconstant and variable across regions.

Chinese researchers determined that non-CO2 forcings are the principal causes of majors swings in a climate's temperature, be it cooling and warming. They also determined that the modern 20th century warming, which doomsday alarmists attribute solely to the trace gas CO2, is well below the confirmed warming that took place in earlier, pre-industrial periods.

Their research is based on the empirical evidence of a reconstructed temperature dataset using tree rings from China's northwestern Sichuan Plateau. This new dataset confirms what the multitude of previous studies have determined - significant climate changes are absolutely natural.

This study's conclusions:

"Seven major cold periods and three major warm periods were identified from this reconstruction, which might be linked with volcanic and solar activities. The Little Ice Age (LIA) climate can also be well represented and clearly end with climatic amelioration at the end of the 19th century. The 18th and 20th centuries were warm with less extreme cold years, while the 17th and 19th century were cold with more extreme cold years. Moreover, the 20th century rapid warming was not obvious in our RLST reconstruction, which implies that mean maximum temperature, as a unique temperature indicator, might play an important and different role in global change. Overall, the RLST variability in the NWSP might be associated with global land–sea atmospheric circulation (e.g., ENSO, PDO, or AMO) as well as solar and volcanic forcing"

 

Prior climate history articles.

Newest Research: Natural Climate Change Routs Mongol Invasion of Europe - 1242 AD

Recently, two science articles based on the latest research belies the notion, held by global warming alarmist proponents, that climate change is only a result of modern human CO2 emissions.

As skeptics of catastrophic global warming have long advised, climate change is primarily a result of natural forces that are not dependent on anthropogenic influences.

An example of this earthly natural climate change is the Little Ice Age (LIA), which had serious repercussions for many, including the Mongol invaders who terrorized Europe.

Researchers now believe that the underlying cause of the mysterious retreat by the Mongol invading forces of Hungary, during 1462 AD, was the bad weather - likely induced by the natural climate change associated with the LIA onset. Turns out the bad weather of climate change significantly reduced food and nutrition for the Horde's steeds and made for a very muddy terrain to battle on.

And then there is the new research from another planet in the solar system that proves natural climate change is not only a terrestrial phenomenon. 

Research derived from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter has established that the Mars ice age is in the process of ending due to a natural global warming for that planet.

In combination, these two research efforts add to the massive amount of scientific evidence that climate change is always occurring; and, most definitely does not require human consumer/industrial greenhouse gases to produce significant impacts on planetary environments and those associated civilizations.

Prior climate-history and peer-reviewed articles.

Unimpeachable Scientific Data: Treeline Study Confirms U.S. Warmer In Past

(image source)

The vast majority of paleo-climate studies have been unequivocal - there are multiple past periods of warmer than current temperatures when low atmospheric CO2 levels existed. Empirical evidence, such as the Greenland ice cores, point to three specific Holocene periods of ancient historical warming: the Minoan, the Roman, and the Medieval eras.

A new research study focusing on the U.S. Western area provides unimpeachable scientific data confirming warmer the temperatures that the previous studies have found.

"In a recent treeline study from central Colorado, Carrara and McGeehin (2015) employed a combination of 23 radiocarbon ages and annual ring counts from 18 Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine (Pinus aristata) remnants found above the local present-day limits of such trees near the Continental Divide in central Colorado, which work revealed that the majority of the tree remnants "were established above the present-day limit of bristlecone pine from prior to 2700 cal. years BP to no later than about 1200 cal. years BP." ... "...has also been found and described in a number of other studies cited by Carrara and McGeehin, namely, those of LaMarche and Mooney (1967), LaMarche and Mooney (1972), LaMarche (1973), Petersen and Mehringer (1976), Scuderi (1987), Carrara et al. (1992), Fall (1997), Lloyd and Graumlich (1997), Doerner (2007), Benedict et al. (2008), Carrara (2011), Madole (2012), Lee and Benedict (2012), Lee et al. (2014) and Morgan et al. (2014)." ..."Clearly, therefore, there exists a wealth of real-world data from the western United States that testifies of the fact that there is nothing unusual, unnatural or unprecedented about that region's current mean yearly maximum and minimum temperatures...".

This should come as no surprise since both empirical and anecdotal evidence establish that natural climate change, with wide variation and extremes, has been a constant for humanity since the beginning.

Take home global warming (and cooling) message: the climate is not stable and never will be - natural climate change rules.

Additional climate-history articles.

Before Exxon (B.E): New Study Confirms Arctic Area Climate Change & Warming Is Natural

Radical-green, progressive Democrats are now resorting to intimidation and inquisition tactics to force others into conformity with their anti-science regarding climate change. Due to their failing miserably in winning the actual science debate, they turn to coercion on those whom disagree.

Unfortunately, they conveniently ignore (or are unaware) the empirical evidence that climate change is a constant, which has produced ancient and geological era extremes in weather and temperatures - extremes that science has confirmed with a cornucopia of peer-reviewed research.

These extremes even took place eons 'Before Exxon' (BE), the fossil fuel giant that Democrats routinely blame for modern climate change and global warming.

Above is a paleo-climate reconstruction from this study for northern Greenland. It clearly depicts the swings in 'BE' climate change from the warming of the MCA (medieval climate anomaly) to the cooling of the LIA (little ice age) and the extreme warming during the early 20th century (ETCW) from the 1920s to 1940s.

The study's author's make the following comments regarding the δ¹⁸O proxy:

"The δ¹⁸O values of the 20th century are comparable to the medieval period but are lower than that about AD 1420.  …. The solar activity and internal Arctic climate dynamics are likely the main factors influencing the temperature in northern Greenland."

Each of these extremes shown are a result of natural internal/external forcings prior to the gigantic consumer/industrial influx of human CO2 emissions starting post-1950.

Per the abundance of climate empirical research, blaming Exxon and other fossil fuel entities for global warming is simply anti-scientific. Climate change, including that of the late 20th century, does not require a change in CO2 - a trace atmospheric gas -to happen.

Additional historical-climate charts.

Accelerating, Extreme Global Warming? Another Example of It Being AWOL

A group of scientists who researched past climate conditions near the coast of Japan made an interesting discovery.

As the article reports, the climate in that area has not experienced any of the hypothetical CO2-caused warming that "experts" claim is global, extreme and accelerating.

The chart associated with the peer-reviewed study makes it pretty clear that dangerous and unprecedented warming is absent from this part of the world.

The study's authors used tree-ring samples from Japan and Russia. Their proxy reconstruction even has a fitted trend (see red curve) that suggests temperatures there seem cyclical and being driven by natural cyclical forces. Those are thought to include ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 

When one thinks about what is reported in this study, it is amazing what scientists can unexpectedly discover from research and analysis when using non-thermometer climate measurements, such as tree rings. These proxies usually come from widely scattered locations, with probably a rather sparse number of samples. In addition, tree rings don't provide a daily or monthly climate recording, unlike thermometer instruments. Yet, at the end of the day, scientists can produce a temperature record and trends over extended periods from an exceptionally low minimum of datapoints, and then their results are widely accepted by the climate science community.

Sometimes one wonders about these studies. 

That said, these scientists identified another region of the world where dangerous and extreme warming rates are AWOL.

Additional historical charts.

New Study: Hottest Temperatures For Arabian Sea Recorded During Roman & Medieval Periods

As the vast majority of climate peer-reviewed studies confirm, there were multiple periods in the geological and ancient past that exhibited, not only extreme climate change, but also hotter temperatures prior to the modern era's huge industrial/consumer greenhouse gases.

This new study regarding the Arabian Sea temperatures during winter seasons adds to the mountain of evidence that current climate change is of a less extreme variety, despite the gigantic CO2 emissions.

And as this other study indicates, that extra CO2 has provided substantial benefits to the biosphere.

Remember When? IPCC Claims That 'Hockey Stick' Graph Proves Modern Warming Unprecedented

(click on graph to enlarge)

Michael Mann's infamous 'hockey stick' graph, used by the IPCC "experts" as propaganda to convince gullible elites that modern warming was unprecedented, has had its science and respectability torn asunder by a multitude of experts over the years.

The graph's lack of both science creditability and statistical robustness eventually caused the UN's IPCC to throw in the towel and exclude it from future climate reports.

Climate research in recent years has confirmed that the hockey stick deserved the ash heap of bad paleo-science it now resides in.

This has again been proven in the latest study, which shows the non-existence of the 'hockey stick' and the rather similar (yet less) modern warming versus that of the Medieval Period. The study's summer temperature reconstruction is adjacent.

More charts indicating modern warming is not unprecedented. A fantastic book regarding the 'hockey stick' and the IPCC.

Other peer-reviewed articles.

Remember When Experts Said Modern Climate Warming Was "Unprecedented"?

Article: This new study for the northern China Sea is just another recent example of empirical evidence supporting past research regarding the global warming experienced during both the Roman and Medieval periods.

And don't forget, that for a brief period, the IPCC's "consensus experts" attempted to claim that modern global warming was unprecedented. But that attempt failed miserably when it became obvious a mountain of peer-reviewed studies easily refuted the "unprecedented" claim.

FactCheck: Modern Global Warming Is Not Unprecedented Versus Roman & Medieval Periods

Article: The myth that modern global warming is "unprecedented" continues despite the overwhelming empirical evidence that debunks the myth. This study from China provides additional proof that natural climate change is a powerful driving force that produces warning phases without human intervention.

Another 'Oh Noes' For Anti-Science Climate Alarmists: China Identifies 'Unprecedented' Warming Prior To High CO2

Much to the chagrin of the West's leading anti-science global warming  alarmists, China's scientists are not cooperating ... their latest research reveals 'unprecedented' warming actually took place well before modern high CO2 levels and industrialization ... the empirical evidence for natural climate change continues to be indisputable and growing.....

(click on for larger view)

This peer-reviewed study confirms that extreme warming took place in China, at the approximate times that Europe was experiencing the warming of the Medieval and Minoan periods.

Unprecedented global warming over a vast swath of the world took place in antiquity.

It is accurate to conclude that natural climate change is a powerful force in terms of promoting significant temperature change regimes - simply, human CO2 emissions are not required to do so.

"Using multi-proxy records -- including data on pollen, charcoal, phytoliths, total nitrogen, total organic carbon and loss-on-ignition from a 268-cm-long sediment core...The six scientists report that one of what they call the "significant climate events during this period" was the Medieval Warm Period, which held sway from approximately AD 700-1200, and which they say "was also revealed at some other sites in Xinjiang,...which was about 1.3°C higher than what had been the case at any other time over the past 3,000 years"

Additional peer-reviewed studies.

Climate Antiquity: China Evidence Reveals Long History of Climate Change & War

A recent lame paper by researchers desperately trying to tie Syrian violence with global warming and climate change was completely eviscerated by a wide range of experts...in summation, it was an exceedingly stupid paper...plus, history of climate antiquity provides plenty of evidence that cooler temperatures provoke more war, rebellions and organized violence than warmer periods.....

(click on chart to enlarge)

This chart depicts historical precipitation and temperature reconstruction from northern China.

Overlaid on the chart by 'C3' are significant Chinese events from the past, along with identification of major solar states (minimums and maximums).

The scientists who compiled the precipitation/temperature records and produced the reconstructions had summarized that solar influence was climatically significant for China due to the affect on annual monsoons.

Using Wikipedia, major war/violence/political events were identified and then added to the chart (color bars).

To the more than casual viewer, it would certainly appear that a cooler climate regime has a higher association with extreme organized violence than a warmer period.

The chart's green curve indicates that those periods with less precipitation (i.e. droughts) are more common when cooler temps prevail - more arid conditions, with less food production make people (and societies) rather restless.

The unequivocal and indisputable climate research clearly demonstrates that climate change is constant; and when combined with historical accounts and anecdotal evidence, warmer climates tend to favor prosperity and peace outcomes while cooler periods provide more of the opposite.

Note: 'C3' originally wrote about this research in 2011. There was a recent article at Ice Age Now (and a YouTube video) using another 'C3' chart with significant Chinese events being overlaid on the Greenland ice core temp reconstructions (that prompted our doing the same for the above northern China chart). Wikipedia info page sources: here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here.

From An Expert Lead Author: The Sordid IPCC History Of The 'Hockey Stick' Fabrication

(click on image to enlarge)

The adjacent image represents a temperature reconstruction from the Greenland ice sheet boreholes. The image was included in a peer reviewed paper that was published in 1998, which is approximately the same time the infamous 'hockey stick' graph was produced.

Although this paper confirmed the findings of a massive amount of previous research that the Medieval Warming generated higher temperatures than the current warming, the IPCC instead conferred star status to the statistically-tortured 'hockey stick' graph, which showed the previous warming to be less than the current era, and then was subsequently found to be without credible merit - a statistical travesty.

Why did the IPCC go with the unproven, statistical abomination that quickly smeared (irreparably?) the reputation of climate science?

"Christy’s assessment, when combined with the UEA emails, provides substantial insight into how this hockey stick travesty occurred.  My main unanswered question is:  How did Michael Mann become a Lead Author on the TAR?  He received his Ph.D. in 1998, and presumably he was nominated or selected before the ink was dry on his Ph.D.  It is my suspicion that the U.S. did not nominate Mann (why would they nominate someone for this chapter without a Ph.D.?)...Instead, I suspect that the IPCC Bureau selected Mann; it seems that someone (John Houghton?) was enamored of the hockey stick and wanted to see it featured prominently in the TAR."

Additional climate-history articles. The Michael Mann self-perpetuated, embarrassing "science" fiasco continues, as described here and here.

Those Stubborn Facts: Chinese Scientists Confirm That Medieval Period Warmer, That Solar Impact Is Huge

The distinctive global warmings during the modern era and the Medieval Period share similar causes - our solar system's sun, per China's climate scholars...

(click on image to enlarge)

Researchers around the globe continue to build on the mountain of scientific evidence that the Medieval Period had warmer temperatures than the modern era.

And the evidence for a powerful solar influence on temperatures and climate change is substantial and growing.

====> "Here we present [Editor: Chinese scientists] decadally-resolved, alkenone-based, temperature records from two lakes on the northern Tibetan Plateau. Characterized by marked temperature variability, our records provide evidence that temperatures during the MWP were slightly higher than the modern period in this region. Further, our temperature reconstructions, within age uncertainty, can be well correlated with solar irradiance changes, suggesting a possible link between solar forcing and natural climate variability, at least on the northern Tibetan Plateau."

Additional climate history articles and charts.

Prior To Modern CO2 Emissions: Unprecedented Warming Documented By Scientists - Exceeds Current Temps

click on chart to enlarge

Peer reviewed studies continue to be published, adding to the unequivocal evidence that climate change was common in the past, often with temperatures higher than modern averages.

The evidence confirms that modern temperatures are not unprecedented nor that human CO2 emissions are required for climate change to happen.

A new study: "A paper published today in Global and Planetary Change reconstructs temperatures in Northern Fennoscandia [within the Arctic circle] over the past 1,600 years.....demonstrating that the Arctic was warmer than the present during the Medieval Warm Period. The paper adds to over 1,000 peer-reviewed published non-hockey-sticks finding the Medieval Warm Period was global, as warm or warmer than the present, and that there is nothing unusual, unnatural, or unprecedented about the current warm period.....Furthermore, the authors find a natural 70-80 year oscillation of temperatures, similar to the 60-70 year oscillation of the natural Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO]." (paper abstract)

Additional historical temeprature charts and climate-history articles.

New Peer Reviewed Study: Indisputable Megafossil Evidence Confirms Roman & Medieval Warming Greater Than Modern Era

A new peer reviewed study based on an analysis of megafossil tree remains documents the indisputable conclusion: it was warmer during both the Roman and Medieval periods - ergo, extreme climate change can happen without human involvement.

The above plots (click each plot to enlarge) of ancient tree lines from previous research provides ample evidence that indeed climates were warmer prior to human CO2 emissions. This new research examines 455 radiocarbon-dated mega-fossils from Scandinavian region.

This newest study establishes the following:

• that "fundamental aspects of glacial, Lateglacial and early Holocene plant cover and landscapes in northern Scandinavia
• that mega-fossil analysis is the only methodology that can "accurately document the existence of a certain tree species at a certain spot and at a certain point of time in the past."
• indicates that "summer temperatures during the early Holocene thermal optimum may have been 2.3°C higher than present,"
• that "the pine tree line was about 100 m higher than today (i.e., early 21st century) c. 1940 and 1300-930 cal. years BP," while noting that "the same applies to birch by c. 1700 and 1300 cal years BP," which clusters "represent the Medieval and Roman times."
• that "these temperature anomalies were succeeded by a distinct tree line/temperature dip, broadly corresponding to the Little Ice Age."
• that "the emergence during the past two millennia of at least two short-term tree line and thermal excursions to higher than present levels (i.e. early 21st century) indicates that the current performance of the ecological and climatic systems is well within the envelope of the natural variability
• that "the pine tree line (and summer temperature) was consistently higher than present ... during the Roman and Medieval periods, c. 1900 and 1000 cal years BP."

Previous climate-history postings and historical-temperature charts.

Note: Doing a search of the internet did not result in finding a definition for 'megafossil' yet a definition for 'microfossil' was readily available. For purposes of this posting, megafossil refers to fossilized material that can be viewed with the naked eye.

The IPCC's 'AR5': Expert Uncovers Absurd Cherry-Picking "Climate Science" In Latest Report

Steve McIntyre analyzed the Southern Hemisphere historical temperature information contained in the recent IPCC AR5 report and documents an amazing discovery.

Extreme, absurd cherry-picking that defies objective, impartial science.

In essence, the IPCC's representation of Southern Hemisphere temperature changes is biased with unrelated Northern Hemisphere paleo-temperature datasets; the IPCC ignores established, widely accepted Southern datasets such as Antarctica's ice core evidence, as displayed here (click on image to enlarge).

Not only does the IPCC avoid utilization of the the inconvenient Vostok ice core temperatures that reveal the Medieval Warming period for the Southern latitudes, they chose to use Northern datasets that have been widely criticized for being error-filled and massively manipulated via questionable, non-standard statistical techniques.

Like previous IPCC reports, the AR5 edition obviously shares the agenda-science traits of absurd cherry-picking, gross misrepresentations and ludicrous fabrications, which confirms the accusations that green-alarmists have completely corrupted climate science.

Note: As the chart depicts, the polar region of the Southern Hemisphere has exhibited an overall cooling trend over the last 5,000 years, with multiple peaks and valleys. This persistent cooling trend is also evident from the Greenland ice core dataset. While the polar regions share many temperature change similarities, their warming/cooling phases occur during different years/decades with different amplitude - i.e., narrowly speaking, perfect synchronization of polar climates does not exist.

Additional climate-history and historical temperature charts.

Extreme Cherry-Picking "Science" Exposed In Newest Alarmist Arctic Climate Study - Moss-Picking Debunked, Unequivocally

Back in 2008, Climate Sanity did an article about Arctic warming, creating the adjacent top graphic that highlights 14 different peer reviewed studies. (click to enlarge image)

The light pink areas represent large geographical areas where the past Arctic climate, over the last 3,000 to 9,000 years, was warmer than today's.

Recently, 'C3' posted an article regarding 15 studies that determined the Medieval Arctic warming was greater than the current warming.

In addition, the adjacent bottom graphic depicts both past and modern tree lines and permafrost boundaries. This inconvenient empirical evidence confirms that in the past trees were able to grow farther north (due to a warmer northern climate) than our modern period; also, today's permafrost boundary stretches farther south due to a modern climate that is cooler.

Despite this preponderance of empirical evidence and multiple peer reviewed studies about the present and past Arctic climate, a new moss (lichen) study by Miller et al. 2013 makes a bogus claim that today's Arctic temperatures are warmer than the past 44,000 to 120,000 years.

This bogus claim has all sorts of scientific lameness, falsehoods and wild misrepresentations associated with it, as described by experts here, here, here and here.

The criticisms of this study are extensive. But the obvious criticism of blatant cherry-picking is indisputable. As one expert pointed out, this research focused on just four moss sample sites on Baffin Island and ignored the island's 135 other moss sites' samples that completely discredit the bogus "warmer than the last 44,000 to 120,000 years" claim.

As this latest study's bogus science affirms, anti-science cherry-picking remains alive and well in "scientific" circles pushing the discredited catastrophic global warming hypothesis. Just another example of 'the ends justify the means' style of agenda-science.

And BTW, the top graphic does not include the recent Baffin Island icecap study and another Island study using lake sediment cores, which both confirm that the modern Arctic temps are cooler than the past.

Additional climate-history and peer-reviewed articles.

Those Stubborn Facts: "Unprecedented" Modern Temperatures Claim Proving To Be False, Scientists Discover

Climate history is replete with peer reviewed research and historical anecdotal evidence that both the Roman and Medieval warming eras were likely warmer than current modern temperatures.

This new study (see adjacent plot) adds to the cornucopia of empirical evidence that natural climate change (warming & cooling) is a powerful force, taking place constantly. This research also confirms the likelihood that our modern warming is more a result of natural forces than greenhouse gases.

Those stubborn facts of natural climate change are without mercy to those who espouse anti-scientific, anti-empirical claims, especially the bogus "unprecedented" claim, no?

Additional climate-history postings.

Those Stubborn Facts: Actual Climate Evidence Again Refutes IPCC's Claim Modern Temperatures Are "Unprecedented"

New research discovers ancient tree stumps that existed under an Alaskan glacier for thousands of years.

The retreating glacier confirms that climate temperatures were much warmer from at least the Minoan period to the Medieval era.

At some point, the climate became cooler and the actual trees were snapped at the stump level, then buried in the glacier's ice for centuries. Finally, the stumps were revealed as the climate returned to warmer temperatures in the rebound from the Little Ice Age.

This actual climate evidence is corroborated by the empirical ice core dataset from Greenland. As the ice core empirical evidence depicts, the ancient periods of the Minoans, Romans and the Medieval era were warmer than the present.

This Greenland evidence also reveals that temperatures have been in an overall cooling phase for the last some 3,500 years, which eventually led to the global glaciers' growth that ultimately would bury trees and forests, such as Alaska's Mendenhall glacier described in this article.

This new research adds to the mountain of empirical evidence and studies that refutes the IPCC's claim that modern temperatures (i.e., global warming) are "unprecedented".

Hmmm...the IPCC climate "science" always seems to be contradicted by those stubborn facts, no?

Additional climate-history postings.

Peer Reviewed Studies: Analysis of 20 Scientific Reports Finds Large Natural Climate Change Impacts In South America

The empirical evidence is irrefutable, no longer debatable.

These 20 studies confirm that the known Northern Hemisphere natural climate change periods, referred to as the Little Ice Age, the Medieval Warming, the Dark Ages and the Roman Period, also had significant impacts on the Southern Hemisphere.

In all cases, across both hemispheres, the large, natural climate changes took place without any human CO2 influence.

This means that natural climate change is caused by other factors that are of either earthly or (and) cosmic/solar origins.

Peer Reviewed Science: Chinese Scientists Prove Medieval Period Warmer Than Recent Modern Warming

Using sediment cores from two lakes in the Qaidam Basin of the northern Tibetan Plateau, Chinese researchers reconstructed temperatures back some 2,000 years.

Their research was unequivocal: modern warming has been cooler than past warming periods. They also confirmed that the climate naturally made shifts between warm/cool regimes.  Plus, the climate shifts appear to be associated with solar activity.

Note: Historical temperature charts and previous climate-history articles.

Those Stubborn Facts: '15' Peer Reviewed Studies Confirm Arctic Was Warmer During Medieval Period

(click on above for original/source)

What do boreholes, varves, birds, diatoms, tree-rings, sediments, pollen and ice have common?

Each has been used in a unique peer reviewed study confirming that the Arctic polar regions during the Medieval Warming Period (MWP) were warmer than the modern era.

That's 15 scientific studies, using actual empirical evidence, confirming the known facts and historical anecdotal evidence.

Note: map source

Those Stubborn Facts: CO2 Does Not Cause Extreme Climate Change, Confirmed In New Study By French Researchers

(click on image for original/source)

Climate change is happening constantly and naturally.

And CO2 is not the cause, as determined by scientists for the 300-year drought that ended the Bronze Age (CO2 levels were at pre-industrial/consumer levels). 

Additional climate-history articles.

H/T: Tom Nelson    published by www.c3headlines.com

The Arctic: Extreme Climate & Temperature Change Naturally Happens, CO2 A Trivial Force

Extreme temperature changes across the Arctic regions are a common occurrence over history - not only does anecdotal evidence corroborate these climate changes but the empirical evidence is indisputable: Arctic temperature swings are big and frequent, and they happen regardless of CO2 emissions

(click on charts to enlarge; source of chart on left)

The chart on the left was produced by Dr. Ole Humlum, who is a scientist/researcher/teacher with a deep interest in the polar regions. He is a prolific author and is responsible for many peer reviewed articles (here is a recent study of his).

This chart comes from Dr. Humlum's invaluable, publicly available climate resource, www.climate4you.com.

The primary dataset plotted on the top-left chart is the Greenland GISP 2 ice core evidence - reconstructed ice sheet temperatures at Greenland's Summit. The bottom-left chart represents a plot of ancient atmospheric CO2 levels that dovetail with periods shown in the top chart of temperatures.

The top chart reveals the wide, extreme swings in Arctic region temperatures, which took place without any significant change in CO2 levels. On the chart, 'C3' has noted the 'peaks' of many of the temperature extremes with red dots. In addition, the points at which the shift occurred to higher temperatures are denoted with purple arrows. There are seven of these extreme upward spikes in temperatures marked in this manner.

For the modern warming, Dr. Humlum's best estimate of what an ice core proxy plot may indicate for a current temperature is marked with a red dashed line. He estimates that a ice core proxy temp for today may be equal to the ice core proxy temp for the Medieval Period. (This is just an estimate, of which there are many. Take your pick.)

The chart on the right is a bar graph representation of the data plotted on the leftmost chart. Specifically, each bar represents the Arctic/Greenland temperature increase from the beginning point (purple arrow) of an extreme temperature increase to its corresponding peak (red dot). In addition, for each bar is listed how many years before the present (ie, 1950) that the 'peak' occurred; how many years until the 'peak' was reached from the 'low' beginning point; and, the associated atmospheric CO2 level for the given 'peak'.

Conclusions:

It's a lot of visual information to consume in these three charts, but in general....

1. Past extreme temperature increases happened without a significant change in CO2 - extreme temperature changes are caused by natural forces

2. The majority of extreme temperature increases were greater than the recent modern temperature change

3. Ergo, the vast majority of the modern temperature change could be a result of natural forces, not due to the hypothetical impact of human CO2 emissions

4. The majority of extreme temperature increases were of longer duration than the modern global warming of 228 years (from 1785AD to 2013AD)

5. Ergo, while the modern warming has "paused" over the past decade, it may begin anew adding years to its length, all because of the same natural forces that happened before

6. Since the modern global warming experience has not been as extreme a 'climate change' as the natural past climate changes (in terms of duration or amount of increase) it is highly probable that modern global warming is mostly an 'under-performing' natural phenomenon with a tiny enhancement from human CO2 emissions.

This actual empirical evidence clearly points to natural phenomena as being the culprits of the world's continuous climate change and warming/cooling. The fact that the billion dollar climate models, to a great degree, ignore or minimize a wide variety of these powerful natural climate forces likely explains their well documented, spectacular failures of prediction - the same goes for the consensus "experts."

Related articles

Who are the Deniers: 'Who denies natural climate change?'

NOAA Confirms Model-Defying Global Temperature Stagnation...2012 Was Among Coolest In 21st Century

Multiple Proxy Study Confirms "Global Warming" Skeptic Views - Modern Temps Not Unprecedented, Not Global

Anti-science alarmists and pro-global warming ('AGW') scientists are very enamored with multi-proxy temperature reconstructions, which allows "researchers" to statistically blend and torture different forms of data to force a "confession" that modern warming has been "unprecedented" - however, as expert skeptics have discovered, these studies are often found to be empirically and statistically-challenged garbage and end up being a cornucopia of unintended contradictions...the new PAGES2K paleo-torture study is the latest example

(click on images to enlarge, source of images, CO2 data source)

The new Kaufman et al. study (aka as the 'PAGES2K' research) is getting its initial web-wide forensic review in multiple articles across the web, including here, here, here, here and here.

The two images above are derived from one of the study's own charts (see the Bob Tisdale article).

The chart on the left depicts those areas of the world that experienced modern warming supposedly greater than any warming over the last 2,000 years; and, the chart on the right represents those areas where modern warming was less than that of certain periods during the past 2,000 years. Both charts have the past 2,000 year atmospheric levels superimposed (the pinkish curve) on them.

It is from the Tisdale analysis that it first becomes apparent that the law of unintended consequences has interestingly come into play - the study's authors have actually built a case (be it likely an unforced error) that supports the views of the majority of catastrophic global warming skeptics/lukewarmers.

From the study itself, and a close review of the above images, we now know the following:

First, as even the New York Times points out, this study determined that the Arctic was warmer during the 1940s to 1970s than during years of the late 20th century. (Sidebar: If the approximate modern instrumental global warming increase of 0.85°C since 1850 is added to the Greenland ice core data, modern warming is still below peaks of the Medieval & Roman periods.) Confirms view of skeptics, check.

Second, the study determined that periods prior to 1000AD had warmer temperatures in Europe. Confirms view of skeptics, check.

Third, this study finds Antarctica was warmer, from the 2nd through 13th centuries, than during our modern era. (Sidebar: If the approximate modern instrumental global warming increase of 0.85°C since 1850 is added to the Vostok ice core data, modern warming is still below the peak temperature between 1AD and 1000AD.) Confirms view of skeptics, check.

Fourth, this study points out that true global warming has not taken place in the modern era, but regional strong warming has. Of the 7 regional areas analyzed, only 3 exhibit a strong warming (more likely only 2, see point #11 below). The other four regions, not so much. Confirms view of skeptics, check.

Fifth, the study clearly indicates that major climate change is taking place at all times, in different manners, across the globe. Climate change is not some new modern phenomenon. Confirms view of skeptics, check.

Sixth, the study shows atmospheric CO2 levels are not a cause of past major climate change. Throughout most of the last 2,000 years, CO2 levels are stable yet climate change is constantly happening. Confirms view of skeptics, check.

Seventh, the study documents that unprecedented regional warming takes place regardless of low/high atmospheric CO2 levels.  Confirms view of skeptics, check.

Eighth, this study, in combination with the known recent global temperature trend (subsequent to this study's ending date of 2000AD), clearly makes an indisputable case that recent modern global warming is not as claimed: unprecedented; unequivocal; irrefutable; irreversible; nor dangerously accelerating. Confirms view of skeptics.

Ninth, this study affirms that periods of "unprecedented" warming do not cause the IPCC's urban legend of "runaway," "tipping point," dangerous global warming. Of course, the hottest period ever recorded (Minoan era) in the ice cores over the last 4,000 years already proved that the mythical "tipping point" is just that. Confirms view of skeptics, check.

Tenth, this study again provides proof that the AGW-alarmist researchers will use each and every attempt to remove and/or minimize the exceptional Medieval Warming Period that the vast majority of local/regional paleo research studies, and the historical literature, have well documented. It is simply freaking amazing that this group of researchers would present an analysis of Europe's past warming without the extreme and extended warming of the Medieval era (see chart on right). Confirms view of skeptics, check.

Eleventh, this study clearly proves to the public that the proponents of AGW-alarmism will utilize excessive cherry-picking of empirical paleo research to fabricate their "scientific" claims of modern "unprecedented" warming. Not only did this study exclude the preponderance of paleo-scientists' research that documents past extreme warming, but this study was brazen enough to include paleo temperature reconstructions that even a peer-reviewed science journal ultimately rejected because of its statistical flim-flam. Without the infamous, widely discredited Gergis et al. study, it is highly likely that the "Australasia" region of the above chart on the left would have to be moved to the chart of the right, above - thus leaving just 2 regions of the world that may have had modern "unprecedented" warming in the 20th century, and only a single region of the world that had "unprecedented" warming since 1970 (recall that this study confirmed the Arctic was warmer from the 1940s to the 1970s). Confirms view of skeptics, check.

Conclusion: This multi-cherry-picking proxy study has many claiming that modern temps are the "hottest" across the globe, over the last 1,400 years. In fact, as the above information clarifies, some regions of the world had strong modern warming (that is, supposedly), while the majority did not. As this study itself determines, global warming, cooling and climate change are not done in some lock step manner across the world in a monotonous cause and effect relationship with CO2. Skeptics of both the IPCC's catastrophic global warming hysteria and the elites' CO2-kills fanaticism have pointed this out for years (if not decades). The geological and historical records/datasets support the essentials of the non-hysterical skeptic/lukewarmers' analysis of climate change, and now this study suggests the alarmist community has inadvertently accepted many of the same views.

Additional climate-history and peer-reviewed postings and historical charts.

Newly Released Evidence Establishes That Arctic Region Was Warmer During Medieval Period

The bogus "unprecedented" modern warming claims by the IPCC and catastrophic global warming 'hystericals' takes another body blow - newly released Arctic region empirical evidence (from Svalbard) confirms that Medieval Period was robustly warmer than the world-ending, hypothetical CO2-induced modern warming feared by alarmists

(click on image to enlarge -- data, source & where in the world?)

The Climate Audit blog has another article regarding the amazing "scientific" attitudes/methods of paleo-climate "scientists" who embrace the IPCC's left-green-alarmist propaganda.

The 'CA' article includes the adjacent temperature reconstruction chart of an Arctic region, spanning the time period of 800AD to 1997AD.

Clearly, the Medieval Period was significantly warmer than the recent modern warming. The MWP climate warmth took place during an era of low atmospheric CO2 levels and minuscule human CO2 emissions. The evidence reveals the extended, unprecedented polar temperatures experienced prior to the Little Ice Age cooling.

Previous climate-history postings and historical-temperature charts.

Climate Science Confirms: The Unprecedented Medieval Warming vs. The Modern Warming

The anti-science Democrats and left-wing greens absolutely hate the Medieval Warming Period (MWP), due to its invalidation of the modern CO2 global warming-climate change hypothesis - no matter their extraordinarily lame corrupted/bogus attempts to prove otherwise, the objective empirical evidence continues to confirm the MWP was an uniquely extended warm era

(click on image to enlarge, image source)

In another fascinating exposé of climate science flim-flam produced by yet another group of academia climate-quacks, Steve McIntyre has the adjacent chart embedded in his article.

This chart represents a 5,000 year span of temperature variation in the Arctic region (Ellesmere Island) per peer-reviewed research . To add context, we superimposed the atmospheric CO2 levels (mauve curve) from the last 2,000 years.

Several very obvious conclusions can be drawn that gut claims by anti-science alarmists and quacks:

1. Climate change is a science-proven constant.

2. Periods of global warming and global cooling happen frequently

3. The Medieval and Roman periods were warmer than the modern era

4. Temperatures changed regardless of CO2 levels

5. CO2, be it natural or human, is not the globe's "thermostat"

Finally, per the HockeySchtick blog, it is known that the essentially barren Ellesmere Island had temperatures some 2 to 3 degrees higher than current temps, despite the gigantic CO2 emissions of our modern consumer/industrial era.

Additional climate-history and peer-reviewed postings. More historical temperature charts.

Latest Research: EU & Russian Scientists Confirm Medieval Period Warmer Than Modern Global Warming

The UN's IPCC claims that modern global warming is "unprecedented" continues to be robustly discredited by the newest scientific research - another peer reviewed study confirms that the Medieval Warming (plus the Roman and Minoan) periods had significantly warmer summers (Kamchatka, Siberia) than our current period, which has atmospheric CO2 levels exceeding 350 ppm

(click on images to enlarge - source)

Read here. Scientists from Europe and Russia reconstructed temperatures from a Kamchatka Peninsula sediment core that contained chironomids. As the chart on the right depicts, the scientists determined that there were extended periods, well before CO2 atmospheric CO2 levels of 350 ppm and greater, when summer temperatures were well above modern temps.

"A paper published in Quaternary Science Reviews reconstructs Arctic temperatures in Kamchatka, USSR over the past 4,500 years and finds the highest reconstructed temperatures were about 3.8°C warmer than modern temperatures. The authors find "the highest reconstructed temperature reaching 16.8 °C between 3700 and 2800 years before the present," about 3.8°C above "modern temperatures (∼13 °C)." In addition, the data shows temperatures between 2500 - 1100 [during the Medieval and Roman warming periods] were about 1-2°C above modern temperatures of ~13°C." [Larisa Nazarova, Verena de Hoog, Ulrike Hoff, Oleg Dirksen, Bernhard Diekmann 2013: Quaternary Science Reviews]

Additional climate-history and peer-reviewed articles. Other historical-temperature charts.

New Scripps Institution Antarctica Research Confirms IPCC Wrong Regarding Little Ice Age

The IPCC's "consensus agenda" has produced a lot of non-scientific climate garbage over its history - new Antarctica study debunks the claim that the Little Ice Age was non-global and restricted only to the Northern Hemisphere - another IPCC 'factlesstoid' has became official 'toast' for the anti-science ash bin file

(click on image to enlarge - source)

Read here. The U.S. has a research station located at the WAIS divide where scientists associated with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography conducted an analysis to determine the Little Ice Age impact on the southern polar region.

"The authors (Orsi et al.) write that "the Northern Hemisphere experienced a widespread cooling from about 1400 to 1850 C.E., often referred to as the Little Ice Age (hereafter LIA)," which they describe as "the latest of a series of centennial scale oscillations in the climate,"...three researchers, all from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, report determining that "the WAIS Divide was colder than the last 1000-year average from 1300 to 1800 C.E.," and they say that "the temperature in the time period 1400-1800 C.E." - which meshes well with the chronology of the LIA in the Northern Hemisphere - "was on average 0.52 ± 0.28°C colder than the last 100-year average."...stating that their result "is consistent with the idea that the LIA was a global event, probably caused by a change in solar and volcanic forcing..." [Anais J. Orsi, Bruce D. Cornuelle, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus] 2012: Geophysical Research Letters]

Additional climate history and peer reviewed articles. Historical temperature charts.

Research Documents A Hotter U.S. Southwest During Roman & Medieval Periods, Prior To Human CO2

Climate change and global warming/cooling are the constant factors of Earth's history regardless of human CO2 emissions - a new study confirms that unprecedented Medieval and Roman period temperatures in the New Mexico area were significantly warmer than current

(click on image to enlarge)

Read here. The empirical research for the unprecedented temperatures during the Roman and Medieval periods continues to build.

As this chart depicts, the New Mexico region of the southwest U.S. experienced considerably warmer temperatures than those of the modern era.

As can be seen, extreme climate change took place frequently in the past, well before any influence of humans on the landscape and the atmosphere from CO2 emissions.

A paper published in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology reconstructs climate change in central New Mexico, USA over the past 12,800 years and finds mean annual temperatures were ~1°C warmer than the present during the Roman Warming Period 2,000 years ago, the Medieval Warming Period 1,000 years ago, as well as during other unnamed warming periods in the past. The paper also shows cold periods were relatively wet, and warm periods relatively dry, the opposite of the claims of climate alarmists. Furthermore, the paper shows that mean annual precipitation today is neither dry nor wet in comparison to the precipitation extremes over the past 4,000 years. [Stephen A. Hall, William L. Penner 2012: Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology]

Additional climate history and peer reviewed articles. Historical temperature charts.

Scientists Document Medieval Warming In The Warm, Humid Climate Of Obama's Birthplace

UK and U.S. left-wing agenda "scientists," associated with the IPCC fraudulent hockey-stick affair, attempted to dictate to other scientists that the Medieval Warming Period was an isolated phenomenon only experienced by the Europe/North Atlantic region -- most paleo-climate researchers rejected the lame arguments of the IPCC authors and continued to find non-European regions that experienced the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), including Obama's birthplace

(click on image to enlarge - source)

Nope, we're not speaking of Obama's first birthplace, the one before he decided to run for U.S. president, although Kenya does have a warm and humid climate.

Instead, the research was done in the Hawaii area, the newer birthplace of Obama after his U.S. Senate election. Specifically, the study was done at the scenic Kealia Pond, Maui.

These scientists wanted to determine what impact the MCA had on the tropical island, where the UN's IPCC scientists had claimed there was no impact. As scientists dedicated to the scientific truth, they ignored the IPCC's dictates (i.e., flimsy reasoning) and pursued their research.

"Based on "high-resolution palynological, charcoal, and sedimentological analysis of a sediment core from Kealia Pond, Maui, coupled with archaeological and historical records,"... Pau et al. developed "a detailed chronology of vegetation and climate change since before human arrival."...Most pertinent was the three researchers' finding that "a shift from dry to wet climate conditions marked the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) as evidenced by a precipitation reconstruction based on a pollen abundance index." They note, for example, that over the 2500 years of their record "there have been two major climatic events: first the MCA (AD 800-1300), followed by the Little Ice Age (AD 1400-1850)."...In the case of the early inhabitants of Maui, Pau et al. write that "an increase in forest resources during this wet climate interval coincided with rapid Polynesian population growth," which suggests that the Medieval Warm Period was a time of prosperity for them..." [Stephanie Pau, Glen M. MacDonald, Thomas W. Gillespie 2012: Annals of the Association of American Geographers]

Regardless of which falsehood of Obama's birthplace one chooses to believe, there is no choice concerning the truth regarding the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Its impact has been substantiated by reams of empirical research and peer reviewed articles. The Medieval Warming Period impact was immense, stretching across the entire world, even touching the tropical islands of Hawaii.

Additional climate history and peer reviewed postings.

Definitive Study By EU Scientists Confirm Modern Temperatures Cooler Than Medieval, Roman Global Warming

The statistical fabrication known as the "hockey stick" has been thoroughly discredited as being proof that modern global warming is unprecedented - adding to the growing empirical evidence that the "hockey stick" was bogus, a new study of Scandinavian temperatures reveals the greater warmth of both the Roman and Medieval Periods

(click on image to enlarge - source)

Read here. As several new 2012 studies of the Arctic and Antarctic regions have determined, modern warming is not unprecedented versus the Medieval and Roman periods.

The current research coming out of the polar regions is confirmed by a group of European scientists utilizing the latest research technology in a non-polar region.

As can be seen, this new research from Esper et al. is depicted adjacent - clearly, summer temperatures during the Roman period, sans consumer/industrial human CO2 emissions, were significantly warmer than the current period.

"The authors developed 587 high-resolution wood density profiles from living and sub-fossil Pinus sylvestris (scots Pine) trees of northern Sweden and Finland to form a long-term maximum latewood density (MXD) record stretching from 138 BC to AD 2006, wherein all MXD measurements were derived from high-precision X-ray radiodensitometry...And in comparing their results with the earlier temperature reconstructions of others, they say that their MXD-based summer temperature reconstruction "sets a new standard in high-resolution palaeoclimatology,"...the four researchers state that their new temperature history "provides evidence for substantial warmth during Roman and Medieval times, larger in extent and longer in duration than 20th century warmth." [Jan Esper, Ulf Büntgen, Mauri Timonen, David C. Frank 2012: Global and Planetary Change]

Conclusions: As the irrefutable empirical research mounts, it is becoming untenable for politicians, regulating bureaucrats and taxpayer funded scientists to maintain the falsehood that modern global warming has been unprecedented. The latest objective, scientific research from across the world confirms that modern warming is not unusual, nor dangerous. In addition, the preponderance of new research indicates that both the Roman and Medieval Periods were warmer.

Additional climate history and peer reviewed articles. Historical temperature charts.

The Natural Medieval Warming Melts Arctic Northwest Passage Sea Ice, But Modern Warming Does Not

Over recent years, the Arctic has warmed much like it did during the natural Medieval Warming Period - during prior warm phases, mother nature melted the Northwest Passage sea ice completely, but not yet in the modern era

(source image1, image2, image3 - click to enlarge)

Read here. Canadian Arctic experts have conclusively determined that the Arctic's Northwest Passage has frequently been devoid of sea ice during summer months.

This lack of sea ice was the result of natural warming that produced excessive temperatures. They conclude that temperatures during the Medieval Period, and multiple earlier periods, were significantly warmer than modern temperatures - from 1 to 3 degrees warmer.

"Numerous sites have been surveyed along the length of the Northwest Passage. The eastern and western approaches have become reliably ice-free in summer under historical climatic conditions, whereas in the central part summer sea ice has been persistent. The radiocarbon-dated bowhead whale remains indicate that the whales were able to range along the length of the Passage during two intervals (centered on 9000 years ago and 1000 years ago) and that they were able to access the central part from the east about 4000 years ago. During the first of these intervals (9000 before present) ice cores indicate that summer temperatures were about 3°C warmer than mid 20th Century. Therefore, a warming of 3°C exceeds the opening threshold. Medieval Warm Period temperatures were probably about 1°C warmer than mid-20th Century, which is likely close to threshold conditions for an opening of the passage."

When compared to the historical and ancient past, the modern Arctic warming and subsequent summer sea ice melt is not unusual, and is likely the result of the same natural climatic patterns and oscillations that produced such conditions in the past.

As revealed in the adjacent series of images, the modern sea melt (image3 at the bottom) still has not freed the Northwest Passage of summer ice as the experts believe the earlier warming periods easily did (image1 and image2).

Conclusions: Modern Arctic warming is not unusual versus the Medieval Warming. Current Arctic and Northwest Passage sea ice melt is less than what occurred in the past, per the empirical evidence. Since both modern and historical Arctic warming, and sea ice melting, are similar, one can surmise that natural warming is the principal cause of today's Arctic conditions. Plus, anthropogenic black soot and greenhouse gases may have exacerbated the current sea ice melting.

Previous climate-history and polar-sea-ice-sheet postings. Historical and modern temperature charts.

Unprecedented Global Warming: New Study Establishes Summer Temps Hotter During Medieval Warming Period

The IPCC's now discredited 'hockey stick' temperature record attempted to change paleo-climate history by finding modern temps to be unprecedented - another new study confirms Medieval Warming Period was hotter

(click on image to enlarge, source)

Read here. Paleo-climate research continues across the world and the vast majority of new studies confirm that earlier periods were warmer than our current climate. And the newest research establishes the same for Canada's Yukon region.

""Bunbury and Gajewski obtained sediment cores from Jenny Lake that "yielded chironomid records that were used to provide quantitative estimates of mean July air temperature."... This effort revealed the existence of "relatively warm conditions during medieval times, centered on AD 1200, followed by a cool Little Ice Age, and warming temperatures over the past 100 years." And from the authors Figure 8, reproduced below, it can be estimated that the Medieval Warm Period at Jenny Lake extended from about AD 1100 to 1350, and that the most recent (AD 1990) of their temperature determinations was about 0.8°C cooler than the peak warmth of the Medieval Warm Period." [Joan Bunbury, Konrad Gajewski  2012: Quaternary Research]

Conclusion: The Medieval Period had the unprecedented global warming, not our modern period. The Medieval warming took place during a time of low atmospheric levels of CO2, well before the modern growth of CO2 emissions.

Prior climate-history and peer-revewed postings. Additional historical and modern temperature charts.

When Global Warming Was Really Unprecedented - Take A Scroll Through Climate History

Visit this climate history temperature chart page and then scroll down that page to witness how temperatures have changed from millions of years ago to those more current.

The above linked page represents a visual presentation of a wide selection of peer reviewed studies. These charts make it abundantly clear that researchers have conclusively found that our modern temperatures are not so "unprecedented" nor so unusual.

Likewise, it is obvious that this actual climate history (sans models) proves that the global climate is highly variable and makes abrupt changes, without any human CO2 emissions.

This plethora of empirical evidence represents years of scholarship and should be a constant reminder to policymakers of one for sure certainty: that our current climate and temperatures will change, and there is nothing we can do to change or stop that highly complex and gargantuan natural process.

(source of above image)

Global Warming Science Facts: Rockall Trough Research Confirms Unprecedented Medieval Period Warming

Climate doomsday scientists and mainstream media proclaimed that modern temperatures were "unprecedented" when in fact they were not - a new study (the Rockall Trough) confirms the global warming science facts: the Medieval Period warming had higher temps

(click image to enlarge; image source)

Read here. The Copard et al. team, using gravity core empirical evidence, reconstructed past temperatures of the northeastern Atlantic region. Their research proves these waters off the coast of Ireland experienced higher temperatures during the Medieval Period than those of today.

"Working with pristine aragonite fragments of fossil deep-sea corals of the species Lophelia pertusa taken by gravity core from the southwestern flank of Rockall Trough in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean...authors extracted the rare earth element neodymium (Nd) and calculated its isotopic composition (ɛNd)...revealed that "the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (1000-1250 AD) was characterized by low ɛNd values (-13.9 to -14.5) ... while the Little Ice Age (around 1350-1850 AD) was marked by higher ɛNd values."...And because the ɛNd value of modern seawater recirculating in the northern North Atlantic at surface and intermediate depths is only -13.1 [currently], it can cautiously be concluded that ocean temperatures during the Current Warm Period have not eclipsed those experienced during Medieval times." [K. Copard, C. Colin, G.M. Henderson, J. Scholten, E. Douville, M.-A. Sicre, N. Frank 2012: Earth and Planetary Science Letters]

Previous climate-history and peer-reviewed postings. Historical temperature charts.