Per NOAA's dataset, over the last 15 years for the 12-mth periods ending June, the continental U.S. has been cooling, robustly.
This took place while CO2 levels were well above the "safe" 350ppm mark.
Additional temperature charts.
(click on the chart to enlarge, data)
And now for the headlines:
Colorado town shatters low-temperature record
EU’s Lawmakers Take Ax To Green Agenda
Watching the death of the EU Carbon Market
Media coverage of global warming: Down 80%
New data falsifies basis of man-made global warming alarm, shows water vapor feedback is negative
Baltic Sea Sets March Ice Record…”Never Seen This Much Ice This Late In The Season”
An Even Later Peak Cherry Blossom Date – How Unnatural is That?
Vail and Breckenridge Extend Ski Seasons
A Normal Day in Climate Science
Additional climate and temperature charts
Note: Above chart uses the NCDC global dataset published through March 2013. The left two columns (CO2 & temperature) represent the 15 years (180 months) ending March 1998, the right two columns represent the 15 years ending March 2013.
(click on images to enlarge - source of charts)
As has been well documented, global warming has gone AWOL and in some regions of the world, global cooling trends have materialized, which scientists across the world are starting to express concern with.
In the key crop regions of the U.S., there has been an extended cooling trend that persists despite the immense human CO2 emissions released over the last two decades. The above four NOAA charts depict those cooling trends across the a wide swath of American agricultural production. These charts represent the main American corn, soybean, spring and winter wheat growing areas.
What the huge U.S. breadbasket needs at this point is a few years of some good old fashioned global warming that will reverse the potential devastation a mass cooling would deliver to crop yields.
Unfortunately, though, it appears nature is not delivering what the American farmers and ranchers need this spring.
(click on chart to enlarge - data sources)
There no longer is any serious debate of the non-existence of dangerous, accelerating global warming from human CO2 emissions - literally, from all current climate empirical evidence, it does not exist.
Despite many climate scientists now being forced to reconsider their runaway "tipping point" AGW hypothesis of high climate sensitivity, and the U.S. public placing a theoretical climate change as a very low priority, there remain those political elites and mainstream "journalists" bitterly clinging to their blatantly incorrect, non-scientific, irrational (insane?) fears of "scary" global warming.
In the scientific real world though, there is an abundance of peer reviewed, solid scientific evidence pointing conclusively to a future of both moderate temperature and climate change.
Conclusions:
Additional modern temperature charts.
- As the above chart reveals, atmospheric CO2 levels have constantly increased since 1990 - see recent CO2 charts here.
- In contrast, the IPCC's gold-standard global dataset (above chart) confirms temperatures have stalled since 1998 - actually, they have slightly cooled at a -0.08 degrees/century trend.
- The chart's solid blue curve is a simple three year moving average of non-scary global temperature change that current political elites conveniently ignores and the MSM refuses to report.
- Current global temperatures are significantly below NASA's climate model and "expert" predictions - note the dotted red line on chart.
- All the major climate agency computer models, based on human CO2 emissions, have failed spectacularly.
- Modern weather disasters (e.g., blizzards, tropical storms, etc.) portrayed by political elites and MSM "reporters" as caused by "climate change" are the exactly the same bad weather disasters that took place during earlier periods of low atmospheric CO2.
(click on image to enlarge - data sources)
Taxpayer-funded climate scientists and ideologue politicians have continuously predicted that the globe will suffer from dangerous global warming; and they claimed that human CO2 emissions acted as the world's climate thermostat.
Fortunately for the world's citizens, the experts and pompous political elites and elected officials have been egregiously wrong.
As the adjacent chart reveals, the IPCC's own temperature gold-standard (HadCRUT3) refutes the "experts" and "elites" hysterical, anti-science prognostications:
#1. The global temperature dataset clearly indicates that the world has exhibited a slight global cooling trend since the spike in temps from the super El Niño of 1997/98. That's 180 months (15 years) of non-dangerous global warming.
#2. The chart's thin black line is a plot of the monthly changes in CO2 levels. The correlation between monthly temperature and CO2 changes ranges from slim to none - this supposed thermostat relation of CO2 to temperatures has a ludicrously low R2 of 0.01. CO2 is not only not a "thermostat," it's likely not even a major climate forcing, per the actual data.
#3. While global temperatures have been slightly cooling, the global changes in monthly CO2 levels have been slightly increasing (note smooth grey curve - a 2nd order fit).
#4. Simply stated, this actual IPCC gold-standard empirical evidence robustly refutes all the anti-science predictions/claims of climate "experts" and alarmist "elites."
And, as we are currently witnessing, the green-sharia, anti-human fanatics are now having to do some serious crawling-back from their previous anti-CO2 agenda and bogus-science blinders to the climate reality.
Additional modern temperature charts, plus other climate graphs.
(click on graphs to enlarge - data sources)
As major mainstream news outlets are starting to report, global warming has essentially disappeared, replaced with a slight cooling trend in recent years. Taxpayer-funded climate scientists are finally being forced to go on record stating the obvious - their global warming predictions were incorrect.
Their favorite euphemism to describe what is happening is that global warming is at a "standstill." Even the most infamous climate reality denier has started using that terminology to describe a decade of non-existent warming - he can't quite yet bring himself to say global cooling.
Three of the above charts (top-left, top-right and bottom-left) represent the state-of-the-art models used by the "consensus" climate experts. As seen, all three have been spectacularly wrong through the end of 2012.
These three models (World Climate Research Programme, NASA-GISS and the IPCC) are CO2-centric climate models - global warming and climate change are primarily driven by levels of atmospheric CO2. As a result, they have long predicted dangerous and accelerating global warming for Earth's atmosphere, oceans and land surfaces - and it bears repeating, they have been spectacularly wrong.
The majority of scientists now agree that these "consensus" science models are flawed (at least 97% of scientists would agree ;-) and are incapable of accurately predicting global temperatures. Thus, newer models based on non-CO2 drivers of climate are starting to see the light of day, so-to-speak.
One such newer model is represented by the bottom-right chart above. This model appears to have better global temperature prediction capabilities, which also happens to verify that CO2 is not the principal climate driver, as scientists on the taxpayer dole claim (and misrepresent).
Additional temperature and climate charts.
(click on chart to enlarge - data sources)
It is estimated some 440 gigtons of human CO2 emissions have been produced over the last 15 years, in contrast to the estimated 330+ tons during the previous 15-year period ending 1997.
Further, it was estimated by the consensus "experts" that a large increase in human emissions over the last 15 years would bring the world hellish warming. It has not happened.
The climate scientists and their associated climate agencies were immensely wrong, as the adjacent chart indicates.
As can be seen, over the first 15-period, prior to 1998, there was a strong warming trend (+1.4 degrees per century). As a result, the experts said human CO2 was the cause. They then emphatically predicted that this warming trend would continue and even accelerate. But it didn't - instead it decelerated.
As the chart depicts, the last 15 years ending 2012 has seen a very slight decline in temperatures, wiping out the strong positive warming trend completely. This small cooling trend in surface temperatures is also supported by the satellite observations of the atmosphere. The global warming was wiped out even though total human CO2 emmisions were a third larger - 110 billion tons more than prior 15-year span.
This empirical evidence has become so convincing that the cooling deniers are even starting to eat that awful tasting, proverbial crow (here and here).
In the meantime, they debate amongst themselves about how befuddled they are concerning the lack of warming, obviously confirming what skeptics knew all the time - their bizarre anti-CO2 phobia and rigid consensus constraints have long blinded them to scientific truth.
Additional global temperature and climate charts.
Note: There was a cosmetic typo in original chart. Abreviation 'RSS' has now been replaced with correct abbreviation 'HC3'. Thank you, Burt Rutan - would not have noticed it until I saw your email.
(click on image to enlarge - data sources)
The adjacent chart is not one likely to be publicized by the green-sharia scientists at NASA's GISS; nor will "journalists" at the NY Times and Washington Post report on it. To do so would make them apostates to the anti-CO2 religion jihad.
Regardless, the empirical temperature observations that NASA documents clearly indicates that the monotonous increase in atmospheric CO2 levels have had little impact on long-term (30 years) temperature change.
As the chart depicts, 30-year temperature changes resemble a sine wave (oscillation) that has nothing to do with human CO2 - instead, that sine wave pattern is natural, and easily overwhelms any CO2 impact.
Additional global temperature and climate charts.
(click on image to enlarge)
As documented by previous temperature charts, the global atmospheric temperatures have been on a declining trend over the last 15 years. The adjacent chart depicts similar results with a change: instead of CO2 levels (ppm), this chart shows the recent human CO2 emissions in gigatons.
Since 1983 (30 years), there have been two distinct phases of global temperatures.
On the right side of this chart, the last 15 years had human CO2 emissions released into the atmosphere increasing by over 100 billion tons. However, instead of an acceleration of the predicted atmospheric warming, the prior 15-year trend was reversed - a new global cooling trend was established.
This is clear empirical evidence of the spectacularly wrong prediction by the environmental organizations' green-sharia "experts" and the IPCC's "scientists."
Conclusions:
1. Human CO2 emissions are not a global temperature "thermostat"
2. The current AGW hypothesis is severely weak, at best
3. Any regional/local surface warming experienced is obviously not a result of the actual cooling global atmosphere...thus, must be due to other factors (hmmm....fabrication of warming temperatures anyone?)
4. Billions to trillions have been wasted by governments, industries and consumers to avert a predicted, slam-dunk warming from a failed greens' hypothesis
5. If this global atmospheric cooling trend persists much longer, the greens and the MSM "journalists" will pirouette 180 degrees and claim human CO2 causes cooling (and climate change)
Additional global temperature and climate charts.
Note: Data sources used for above chart. Since 2012 total CO2 emissions have not yet been published, the total amount used in the chart for the last 15 years (ending 2012) is a close approximation.
The 2012 year-end satellite measurements continue to be cruel to the IPCC's green-sharia scientists - this UN agency has long predicted huge atmospheric global warming from CO2 emissions .....yet in reality, global cooling currently dominates
(click on images to enlarge)
The above chart is the plot (Figure 1) of satellite atmospheric temperature measurements provided by RSS, plus CO2 measurements from NOAA (data sources).
Clearly, as CO2 levels have monotonously increased over the last 17-years (why 17?), global temperatures have not increased with any significance. By year 2100, this "warming" trend would produce a projected increase of one-third of a single degree - rather insignificant and hardly noticeable.
The UN's IPCC's catastrophic global warming (CAGW) hypothesis, which the vast majority of empirical-based scientists now reject, demands that ever increasing atmospheric CO2 levels cause the atmosphere to rapidly warm. This accelerated, man-made atmosphere warming would then significantly warm the globe's oceans and land surfaces, quickly making Earth inhospitable from incredibly high temperatures and horrific climate change disasters.
Contrary to the United Nation's "science" though, global temperatures have morphed over the last 30 years from a warming trend to a cooling trend despite the huge increase in CO2 levels.
This next set of temperature plots (Figures 2, 3, 4 and 5) depict the global atmosphere temperatures and CO2 levels over four different time periods. These plots, plus the 17-year chart, formulate an empirical reality that refutes the UN's non-empirical CAGW hypothesis:
1. Atmospheric CO2 levels have increased relentlessly over the last 30 years
2. For all time periods, the average atmospheric CO2 levels have exceeded the supposedly "safe" 350 parts-per-million (ppm)
3. As figure #2 shows, there is a modest global warming trend evident over 30 years
4. Figure #2 also reveals that most of the global warming took place prior to 1999
5. Since 2003 1993, the 20-year plot (figure #3) has a smaller warming trend - less than 1.0 degree by year 2100
6. The 15-year and 10-year charts (figures #4 and 5) have no warming trend, proving that a very slight atmospheric global cooling has dominated since the late 20th century
7. 2012 global temperatures are well below previous highs over the last 30 years.
8. The 17-year plot (figure #1), which is favored by some CAGW scientists, confirms that global atmospheric warming has been robustly insignificant, contrary to their own predictions
Additional global temperature and climate charts.
(click on image to enlarge)
Over the last 180 months (15 years) the atmospheric CO2 levels have continued to increase at a rapid pace, but the globe (land and ocean) has cooled during that same time.
For the 15-year period ending September 30, 2012, the world experienced a very slight cooling trend of -0.12°C per century.
In contrast, for the 15-year period ending September 1997, the globe was warming at a +1.18°C pace.
Additional temperature & climate charts.
(click on image to enlarge)
The RSS satellite global temperature measurements indicate that the 1997-98 Super El Niño started from the low of April 1997. From that point, and all the way through July 2012, the global atmosphere has cooled - a total of 184 months. This cooling trend took place during a significant increase of atmospheric CO2 levels.
This slight cooling trend is opposite of what the IPCC (and NASA's James Hansen) predicted for global temperatures.
The IPCC prediction of rapid global warming is based on the hypothesis that human CO2 emissions would increase atmospheric CO2 greenhouse gas levels; the increase of greenhouse gases would allow more radiated heat to be retained; the retained heat would warm the atmosphere; and, the atmosphere would then warm the world's oceans and land surfaces. Such predicted warming would set in motion a "runaway tipping point" that would produce catastrophic climate disasters and a doomsday for civilization.
Instead, as the adjacent chart indicates, the lower atmosphere since 1997 (per the RSS satellite measurements) has actually been exhibiting a cooling trend, versus the the obvious warming trend for the January 1980 to April 1997 period (red curve on chart).
Like the RSS dataset, the HadCRUT global temperatures also exhibit almost the same warming/cooling dichotomy. What is very apparent in both datasets is that the '97-98 Super El Niño shifted temperatures up to a new level, which then global temperatures resumed their normal variation around. Subsequent to this temperature range shift, growing CO2 emissions have not caused the long predicted "global warming."
Conclusions:
#1. Satellite measurements reveal both a modest global warming and very slight global cooling period since 1980.
#2. Levels of atmospheric CO2 appear to have no consistent influence on global temperatures since 1980.
#3. Global warming is not "irrefutable," "unequivocal," "rapidly increasing," "accelerating," "incontrovertible," "indisputable," "unquestionable" nor "unprecedented." It's quite the opposite of all these qualifiers.
#4. Any IPCC scientist, climate researcher, academic, government bureaucrat, journalist and pundit who states and/or implies that any 'qualifier' in point #3 is the 'truth,' is, quite honestly, a serious liar. The empirical evidence is the scientific truth, not a person's blatant verbal misrepresentation.
#5. Politicians and celebrities who state and/or imply that any 'qualifier' in point #3 is the 'truth' is at best, stuck-on-stupid. Unfortunately, that seems to be the dominating characteristic of individuals involved in the political, sports and entertainment worlds. (Although, with politicians it may not be the case of being stupid, instead it may be more of a case of being criminally corrupt in order to enrich himself via "green" projects - think Solyndra.)
#6. As the satellite data show, the hot summer in the U.S. was not a result of global warming (as suggested by many covered by points #5 and #6) since global atmospheric temperatures during May, June and July were not extreme nor unusual.
(click image to enlarge)
In climate science reality, the actual global temperature observations over the last 15 years do not support the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) hypothesis.
Central to the CAGW hypothesis is that increasing human CO2 emissions will raise atmospheric levels of this greenhouse gas. Subsequent to the atmospheric CO2 increase, global warming will automatically and consistently increase.
Once the globe starts warming, the AGW hypothesis states that a high climate sensitivity to CO2 will initiate a dangerous positive feedback loop: the rising temperatures will increase water evaporation; the powerful atmospheric greenhouse gas water vapor will then increase; then global temperatures will increase even more, the melting of ice sheets occurs; thus, less solar energy will be reflected into space; and global temperatures will then increase even more; and etc., etc.
This powerful and relentless positive feedback loop will produce unequivocal, robust, significant, unprecedented, irrefutable, rapid and accelerating global warming. At least that is what every "expert" climate model based on the CAGW hypothesis predicted.
But did the above prediction/scenario/forecast happen? Nope, not even close. In fact, the opposite happened.
The adjacent chart depicts the last 30 years of increasing CO2 levels and global temperature trends. This actual climate evidence is sliced into two time periods: the 15 years ending July 1997 and the 15 years ending July 2012. The real world evidence reveals the following:
1. The far right column (grey) shows that CO2 levels were increasing at a 147 ppm per century rate by the end of July 1997. Actual CO2 levels were at the 364 ppm mark.
2. For the 15 years ending 1997, global temperatures were increasing at +1.08°C per century trend (red column).
3. Since July 1997, the growth of CO2 levels has increased to a 197 ppm per century trend, and now stands at the 395 ppm mark.
4. After 30 years of increasing human CO2 emissions and faster growing atmospheric CO2 levels, the last 15 years have witnessed the previous global warming morph into a global cooling tend (blue column) at a -0.24°C per century trend.
Conclusions: The climate scientist and climate models that have long predicted catastrophic global warming from CO2 emissions are proven to be undeniably incorrect. The AGW hypothesis does not reflect climate reality. The actual empirical evidence proves the CAGW hypothesis to be irretrievably wrong. The climate sensitivity to CO2 levels is, at best, tiny. The natural forces of the climate will produce negative feedbacks that completely overwhelm the hypothetical CAGW positive feedback loop. Thus, while CO2 emissions will likely induce a slight warming, the natural climatic forces will dictate and dominate our climate future.
Finally, any "science" association, journalist, politician, celebrity, weatherperson, bureaucrat and pundit who says that dangerous global warming is happening, is unequivocal, is rapid, is irrefutable, is unprecedented, is robust, is significant and is accelerating can only be one thing: he or she is a pathological liar.
Additional modern, regional, historical and fabricating-fake temperature charts. Severe-weather charts and list of past severe-weather events.
Data used: HadCRUT and CO2(click image to enlarge)
HadCRUT released their latest global temperature dataset today, which confirmed what both NOAA and NASA reported earlier this month - that global temps declined during July 2012.
In addition, the plot of the HadCRUT and CO2 data for the last 15 years, through July 2012, is very revealing.
Contrary to what the mainstream press reports and exaggerates about "global warming," the world has actually been in a stable-to-cooling phase since the El Nino temperature spike of 1997/98.
Of course, if the NYTimes or WAPO or CNN or CBS or the AP were ever to report the actual cooling trend over the last 15 years (despite the massive amounts of human CO2 emissions) this would establish that they have been grossly misleading the public for years about consensus "global warming."
And as the press fully realize, the public that primarily relies on traditional media outlets are extremely gullible with little intellectual curiosity. Thus the media gets away with hysterical fear-mongering, half-truths and deceptions.
Additional modern, regional, historical and fabricating-fake temperature charts. Severe-weather charts and list of past severe-weather events.
(image source)
Despite the protestations of the climate doomsday scientists and their faithful cohorts (mindless parrots?) in the mainstream press, the extremely hot weather, in parts of the U.S., is an exception.
(And, btw, the current heat wave and severe weather in the U.S. is not unusual - hmmm...if only the lazy MSM doomsday parrots reporters would get off their fat keisters, eh...)
Across the globe, reports of colder temperatures and cold inclement weather abound, which the large MSM outlets in the U.S. have failed to report. Because of the extreme one-sided reporting of the hot summer (ie, "global warming") in the U.S., most Americans remain ignorant of significant weather and climatic conditions across the world. This level of global ignorance is highly correlated to the god-awful, biased reporting done by the Seth Borensteins of the world.
Below are recent examples of conditions that prevail outside America's Midwest and East Coast areas that major U.S. media/press outlets won't mention:
June-July skiing in western U.S. & Canada
Many more record lows for the United States
Argentina – Serious frosts lead to declaration of agricultural emergency and disaster
Wettest April-to-June ever recorded in UK
“Incredibly rare” cold in New Zealand
Californian mountain receives late June snowfall - up to a foot
“Freak” summer snowfall in northern Finland
South Pole Station Sets New Record Low: -100.8°F
Freezing temps forecast for Oregon - In Summer!
Record low temps in Eastern Idaho hammer potato crop
Sweden – One of it’s coldest and wettest Junes since 1786
Massive number of U.S. record lows – In Summer
Blizzard kills 200 cows on NZ West Coast
Argentina – More snow in two weeks than an entire normal winter season
Ireland – Wettest June on record
Swiss Valley of Engadin blanketed in snow
Up to 14 inches of snow for Mt Rainier WA - Late June
Sweden’s reindeer on the verge of extinction because it’s too cold
(click on image to enlarge)
While much of the U.S. has been doing a slow roast over the last few months, other parts of the world are cooling. So much so that in the aggregate the global mean temperature slightly fell during May 2012.
As the adjacent chart indicates, over the last 180 months (15 years) global temperatures have been on a cooling trend. This trend persists despite the increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 and at least two powerful El Niño's since 1997.
There is not a single global climate model that predicted this stable/cooling trend. All models predicted "accelerating" global warming because of their singular dependance on levels of atmospheric CO2.
As can be observed and surmised, clearly there are other forces are driving the IPCC-HadCRUT global temperatures other than CO2. The global warming science facts do not support the speculations of climate doomsday alarmists.
Additional global temperature charts.
(click on image to enlarge)
Here is the typical plot of the impact of CO2 emissions on global temperatures. As a change in pace, a different depiction of "global warming" is adjacent.
The left side of this chart reveals the current 15-yr per century global temperature change trend (-0.12 degree), as of April 2012 - the blue bar near the bottom. The grey bar represents the massive amount of human CO2 emissions released into the atmosphere over the last 15 calendar years.
In contrast, for the previous 15 years ending April 1997, the red bar represents the per century temperature change trend (+1.08 degree) and partially hidden grey bar the total human CO2 emissions released during the calendar year span of 1982 - 1996.
The data portrayed in this chart, when combined, represents the last 30 years (360 consecutive months, starting May 1982 and ending April 2012) of human CO2 emissions and global temperature change.
Additional modern, regional, historical, fabricated-fake, and climate-model charts.
Note: Linear trends are not predictions.
(click on image to enlarge)
It's the last day of April 2012 and Phil Jones just released the March global temperature information. This latest update confirms that global temperatures are not "accelerating" nor "unequivocally" warming due to CO2 emissions.
As can be seen, the adjacent chart reflects the recent global cooling phenomenon.
Truth be told, the new global data clearly show that global temps are little influenced by CO2 levels. Plus, the over-hyped global warming is causing climate change alarmism has essentially no merit, per the data, thus falsifying Bill McKibben's entire career as an anti-CO2 crusader.
This newest empirical evidence affirms that highly paid (by the taxpayer) and arrogant climate scientists, and their billion dollar computer models, are often wrong, big time. Anti-science activists like McKibben would do well to show a little more humility about mother nature and also express at least an ounce of skepticism when listening to bureaucrat scientists with an agenda.
Previous "accelerating" temperature and connect-the-dot postings. Additonal temperature and climate charts.
(click on image to enlarge)
The adjacent chart documents the facts on the ground, so-to-speak, and easily answers the question: Is global warming happening?
The simple answer from the empirical observations is 'No.'
The IPCC climate models, using the business-as-usual CO2 emissions scenario A1F1 predicted a best estimate of global temperature increase of +4.0 degrees by year 2100. That prediction was based on year 2000 being the starting point.
Thus, per the IPCC model(s), by February 2012 the global temperatures should have already increased to 14.75 degrees C (pink dotted line) based on a 12-month moving average. Instead, since 2000, the HadCRUT global temperature has only slightly increased (red dotted line).
Below is a synopsis of linear trends of the model prediction and actual observations:
Despite human CO2 emissions continuing to grow in a 'business-as-usual' manner (grey curve, black dots), global warming has stopped and is currently declining, as the blue columns of the chart indicate. The blue fitted trend curve reveals the current direction of global temperatures - 'global cooling' would be the more accurate description for the last 10 years.
Global warming has monotonously creeped to a point of global cooling since the 1998 peak temperatures. CO2 levels appear to have little, if any, direct impact on direction or magnitude of changes in global temperatures.
Why has global warming turned to cooling or, as some prefer, "stalled"? For the confusion that reigns over that issue read here.
[Note: To calculate rolling 12-month average of HadCRUT absolute temperatures, 'C3' used the HadCRUT global monthly anomalies plus the monthly absolutes found here. 'By year 2100' increases/decrease calculated using the 12-mth moving average absolutes. Although the A1F1 scenario starts in year 2000, the above Excel chart includes data back to 1990 to provide a visual context. Additional info on emission scenarios.]
For additional temperature charts, visit these 'C3' pages: Modern, regional, historical and fabricating-fake temperature charts.
(click on images to enlarge)
From 1960 through 2011, over 1 trillion tons of CO2 have been emitted by humans from the burning of fossil fuels. The alarmist global warming theory requires that all those emissions still remain in the atmosphere - per the AGW alarmists, emissions will stay resident in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years.
But as the empirical evidence mounts, those trillions of tons of emissions are having a very small impact on global temperatures - so small, many of the world's best scientists are now questioning the relevancy of human CO2 on the world's climate. The previous modern warming has convincingly morphed into modern global cooling.
The top left chart is a plot of CO2 levels versus global temperatures for December, January and February. These months are typically the coldest for the Northern Hemisphere's winter and warmest for the Southern Hemisphere's summer. As the chart reveals, the last 15 years have seen significant cooling for these three months - including 1998, the trend is a minus 1.3 degrees/century.
The chart on the right, plots the Dec-Jan-Feb temperatures from 1960. The blue shaded areas represent the cooling periods that sandwich the modern warming that ended in 1998 with a kaboom - the Super El Niño of 1998.
Clearly, the massive 1 trillion+ tons of CO2 emissions are not making global temperatures "accelerate" prior to 1977, nor for the post-1998 period.
For additional temperature charts, visit these 'C3' pages: Modern, regional, historical and fabricating-fake temperature charts.
Note: The above Excel charts plot the simple 3-month average of December, January and February anomalies from the HadCRUT monthly global dataset.
(click on images to enlarge)
While many Americans welcomed a balmy-like February winter, this minor regional warming in some parts of the U.S. was overwhelmed by an otherwise large global cooling. Last time February global temperatures were colder than February 2012 was in 1994 - 18 years prior.
If this February cooling trend since 1994 continues, by 2100 February temperatures will be 0.7 degrees (C) cooler.
Modern global cooling for all months over the last 10 years through February has a more prominent per century trend of minus 1.1 degrees (C) (or a minus 0.95 degrees by 2100). It has now become a unanimous consensus that the 80's and 90's warming span turned into a cooling (be it slight) phase over the last 10 years.
Back to February. By examining past February temperatures since 1850 in more detail, it becomes clear that the HadCRUT dataset does not provide any empirical evidence of accelerated warming of February temperatures - temperature change is not constantly increasing, nor even positive every year for that matter.
Instead, as the top chart reveals, temperature change from one February to the next follows a consistent pattern of negative and positive changes, going back and forth, from 1850 to present day.
Now look closer at the chart (click to enlarge). That purple line is the linear trend of February temperature changes - it's flat, indicating that global February temperatures are not unequivocally warming. Look at the red curve - that's the 30-year simple average of February temperature change.
Note how the red curve has remained within a narrow volatility band ever since 1880 and all the way through February 2012. Again, clearly global February temperatures are not exhibiting the long-predicted accelerating temperature change regime that was going to make winters disappear in the Northern Hemisphere.
Interesting to note, as CO2 levels kept up their constant growth (black dots), when were the biggest positive and negative changes in February temperatures over the last 50 years? Way back in 1973 and 1974 (back-to-back) when the globe was experiencing its previous global cooling phase, not during the warming of the 80's and 90's.
And, what would the climate change statistics look like if there were actually accelerating temperature increases? The adjacent chart shows that: the last 10 years of actual February temperature change were altered to artificially increase by +0.25 degree every February. That level of accelerated change caused the purple trend line to slope up, and caused the red 30-year average curve to break out of its narrow band of variation, significantly.
For additional temperature charts, visit these 'C3' pages: Modern, regional, historical and fabricating-fake temperature charts - hey, if you only look at the above charts you'll be accused of 'cherry picking' by someone!
Note: February 2012 tied February 2008 as the coldest February since 1994.
(click on images to enlarge)
These Bob Tisdale charts of ocean temperatures through January 2012 are most enlightening. To summarize the data plotted on the charts, ocean temperatures, as represented by the Southern, South Pacific and global measurements, clearly show a decline since the 1998 El Niño event. The Southern Ocean (aka the Antarctica Ocean) has experienced a very significant decline in temperature since the early 2000's.
Sooo...per the logic of the typical global warming alarmist, the Arctic sea ice melt from human CO2 emissions does the following, from one Polar region to its geographic opposite:
In essence, the tortured logic of the ever-changing alarmist climate change theories literally leads one to conclude that global cooling weather events are the natural negative feedback to AGW.
Of course, no IPCC climate change report (so far) has remotely stated the above. But the actual climate empirical evidence (ie, non-warming world, lower ocean temps) and cold weather events has now forced CO2-centric global warming alarmists into a pretzeled logic that ultimately supports the overall negative feedbacks of global climate as understood by CAGW-skeptics, not the positive feedbacks pushed by the IPCC.
Previous positive-negative feedback postings. Modern, regional and historical temperature charts.
(click on images to enlarge)
Read here. The chart on the left is new empirical evidence released by the German climate research organization, the Alfred Wegener Institute. Their polar weather station temperature records clearly confirm the cooling trend as previously measured by satellite over the last 30 years (chart on the right).
In addition, a new peer reviewed study found that over the last 30 years the Antarctica snowmelt has been trending down, which substantiates the observed cooler temperatures as the above plots show.
"Surface snowmelt is widespread in coastal Antarctica. Satellite-based microwave sensors have been observing melt area and duration for over three decades.....The paper actually shows a declining trend in snowmelt over the past 31 years, although not statistically significant. Of note, the abstract states, "other than atmospheric processes likely determine long-term ice shelf stability." Translation: increased CO2 and other 'greenhouse gases' do not threaten stability of the Antarctic ice shelf." [P. Kuipers Munneke, G. Picard, M. R. van den Broeke, J. T. M. Lenaerts, E. van Meijgaard 2011: Geophysical Research Letters]
Previous polar-ice-sheet-glacier, failed-prediction and peer-reviewed postings. Modern and regional temperature charts.
As the Climategate 2.0 emails continue to establish, the alarmist climate scientists claiming "unprecedented" and "accelerating" global warming actually can't find either. When examining the global temperature trends, it is clear that global warming has actually been missing for the last 15 years. This has definitely been the case of the continental U.S., as the chart below depicts. (click on to enlarge)
This "global cooling" of the U.S continues in spite of growing CO2 emissions. Human CO2 emissions continue to grow at a business-as-usual pace with a record set in 2010 for the largest emissions ever.
The NOAA/NCDC chart on the left represents the 15 years (180 months), starting January 1, 1997 and ending December 31, 2011. Per these latest U.S. official temperature data records, the 12-month period ending December was the 5th coldest December-ending period for the last 15 years.
In terms of a single month, December 2011 was the 22nd warmest since 1895 (December 1998 was the warmest).
The per century cooling trend of this period, a minus 4.4°F, took place despite the huge warmth produced by two large El Niño events during this 15-year span: 1997-1998 and 2009-2010.
For the 10-year period ending December 2011 (Januart 1, 2002 thru December, 2011 - 120 months), the cooling trend accelerates to a very significant minus 7.2°F per century rate - again, per the updated NOAA/NCDC temperature records.
Please note: The linear temperature trend, as shown in the NOAA chart, is not a prediction.
Other modern temperature charts. Historical and fabrication-temperature charts that support the position of global warming skeptics
The chart on the left has to be extremely painful and embarrassing for the IPCC's Climategate alarmists and their 'big green' and MSM comrades.
Despite the large increases of atmospheric CO2 levels, the global temperatures have barely increased - contrary to predictions from the IPCC, NOAA and NASA's GISS. Per the linear trend of the adjacent chart, the projected temperature increase by year 2100 will only be a ludicrously tiny +0.05 degree (yes, only 1/20th of a single degree).
The grey curve/background indicates the monotonous growth of CO2 levels, while the blue curve reveals temperatures trending slightly cooler over the last 15 years. One could easily surmise from this chart that increased CO2 levels (due to human CO2 emissions) have actually "cooled" the planet since the earth-fever of the 1997-98 El Niño event.
Obviously, the satellite provides further empirical evidence that human CO2 emissions are very unlikely to be a major force driving global temperatures and/or climate change. The lack of observable correlation between monthly temperatures and monthly CO2 levels is stunning.
And here's a 'C3' prediction to take to the bank: the mainstream press will not provide its readers and viewers with this actual satellite data that literally contradicts their past hysterical "global-warming reporting."
Additional modern and historical temperature charts. Source of temperature and CO2 data for above Excel chart. [Note: linear trends are not predictions]
Unfortunately, almost every family has to suffer with the typical "useful idiot" family member during the holidays who has relied on MSNBC, ABC (Australia), the NY Times, the Washington Post, the BBC or CNN for their climate information. Soooo...below is a Christmas stocking stuffer to be pulled out at the appropriate time when the family idiot starts spewing the mainstream media left / liberal / progressive / Democrat climate anti-science.
The IPCC's climate reports' gold-standard for global averages is the HadCRUT temperature dataset. Since the end of 1997, the HadCRUT global average shows an actual global cooling trend, not warming (-0.03C degrees/century). And since the end of 2000, this IPCC gold-standard has global cooling trend increasing to a -0.6C degree/century. (click on charts to enlarge)
The blue trend line is the IPCC's best-of-breed temperature dataset. Nasa's GISS dataset is represented by the red trend and NOAA's NCDC dataset by the green trend.
From the above, we can surmise the following:
1. Despite record setting human CO2 emissions over the past decade, they have not caused "dangerous," "accelerating," "runaway," "tipping point" or "irreversible" global warming
2. Per the IPCC gold-standard, a slight global cooling trend has developed since the end of 1997, and is more prominent since the end of 2000
3. Despite two large El Nino (extreme warming) events since 1997, the global temperatures per the IPCC gold-standard have trended down (through November 2011)
4. None of the IPCC's climate models predicted deceleration of global warming, let alone the actual global cooling
5. Whether it's the HadCRUT or GISS or NCDC temperature trends shown above, "accelerating" global warming is not reality - the opposite is reality
6. A worst case warming scenario based on recent trends (GISS or NCDC, not HadCRUT) might range from a +0.3C to +0.9C warming by year 2100 (trends are not predictions)
7. The climate sensitivity to CO2 atmospheric levels has been a fraction of that predicted by the IPCC
8. The hysterically claimed climate temperature "tipping point" is just that - hysteria
9. Natural climate and/or cyclical phenomenon has likely had a much greater influence on global temperatures than the immense human CO2 emissions
10. There is no "consensus" among HadCRUT, GISS and NCDC regarding global temperatures
With our listing of both the GISS and NCDC trends above (in addition to HadCRUT), one may wonder why they are not considered the IPCC's gold-standard. Well, regarding Nasa's GISS, a scientist from GISS has stated the following to an USA Today journalist:
“My recommendation to you is to continue using NCRDC [NOAA] data for U.S. mean [temperatures] and Phil Jones’ [HadCRUT] data for the global mean…We are basically a modeling group…for that purpose what we do is more than accurate enough [to assess model results]. But we have no intention to compete with either of the other two organizations in what they do best.”
So, even the GISS folks hardly view their global temperature dataset as being the gold-standard, why should the IPCC?
Regarding the NOAA/NCDC temperature series, a recent analysis of their dataset revisions show a continuous monthly adjustment effort of historical temperatures that signify more a political agenda versus an impartial science objective. Amazingly, in the month of November 2011 alone, NCDC has published at least 4 different versions of their temperature dataset.
More importantly, the current NOAA chief has turned the science agency into a political and global warming hothouse, where facts and evidence are fabricated or subject to ludicrous revisionism for green political purposes. NOAA has become a science joke and the IPCC can ill afford hitching their wagon to another Green Mafia controlled outfit. Thus, no "gold-standard" for the NCDC temperature dataset.
That leaves the HadCRUT dataset as the gold-standard, which, by the way, finds the globe cooling, not warming - hmmm...did we say that already?
Merry Christmas!
Santer and Hansen are two climate modelers that have been spectacularly wrong for so long that it's even painful for skeptics to witness. These two have been cluck-clucking forever about how CO2 levels were causing accelerating and irreversible global warming, with some climate "disruption" thrown in to scare the politicians and policymakers.
However, as the actual empirical evidence through November 2011 reveals, it is highly unlikely that either of these "scientists" could find his own ass with his hands. Even using Santer's own preferred 17-year analysis span (chart on left), it is clear that global warming is insignificant and likely moving towards a cooling phase.
The chart on right shows the climate model abomination that NASA and Hansen base their predictions on. The level of climate science incompetence is mind-boggling. (click on images to enlarge)
The only things Santer and Hansen have managed to succeed at is enriching themselves, at the expense of science and the taxpayers.
Other modern temperature charts.
As the Climategate2.0 emails continue to establish, the alarmist climate scientists claiming "unprecedented" and "accelerating" global warming actually can't find either. When examining the global temperature trends, it is clear that global warming has actually been missing for the last 15 years. This has definitely been the case of the continental U.S., as the graph on the left depicts. (click on to enlarge)
And, as the chart on the right depicts, this "global cooling" of the U.S continues in spite of growing CO2 emissions. Human CO2 emissions continue to grow at a business-as-usual pace with a record set in 2010 for the largest emissions ever.
The NOAA/NCDC chart on the left represents the 15 years (180 months), starting December 1, 1996 and ending November 30, 2011. Per these latest U.S. official temperature data records, the 12-month period ending November was the 5th coldest November-ending period for the last 15 years.
In terms of a single month, November 2011 was the 25th warmest since 1895 (November 1999 was the warmest).
The per century cooling trend of this period, a minus 4.6°F, took place despite the huge warmth produced by two large El Niño events during this 15-year span: 1997-1998 and 2009-2010.
For the 10-year period ending November 2011 (December 1, 2001 thru November, 2011 - 120 months), the cooling trend accelerates to a very significant minus 8.9°F per century rate - again, per the updated NOAA/NCDC temperature records.
Please note: The linear temperature trend, as shown in the NOAA chart, is not a prediction.
Other modern temperature charts. Historical and fabrication-temperature charts that support the position of global warming skeptics
Temperature data source here. Carbon chart source here. (click on images to enlarge)
Climate reality keeps defying (mocking?) the IPCC's Climategate scientists. When examining the global temperature trends, it is clear that global warming has actually been missing for the last 15 years. This has definitely been the case of the continental U.S., as the graph on the left depicts.
And, as the chart on the right depicts, this "global cooling" of the U.S continues in spite of the world's ten worst accelerating CO2 emitters (below the red line) over the last two years. The countries increasing their CO2 emissions the most are: South Africa (home of Durban), Egypt, Brazil, Vietnam, Iran, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, India and China.
The NOAA/NCDC chart represents the 15 years (180 months), starting November 1, 1996 and ending October 31, 2011. Per these latest U.S. official temperature data records, the 12-month period ending October was the 5th coldest October-ending period for the last 15 years.
In terms of a single month, October 2011 was the 33rd warmest since 1895 (October 1963 was the warmest).
The per century cooling trend of this period, a minus 3.7°F, took place despite the huge warmth produced by two large El Niño events during this 15-year span: 1997-1998 and 2009-2010.
For the 10-year period ending October 2011 (November 1, 2001 thru October, 2011 - 120 months), the cooling trend accelerates to a very significant minus 10.6°F per century rate - again, per the updated NOAA/NCDC temperature records.
Please note: These linear temperature trends, as shown in the NOAA chart, are not predictions.
Other modern temperature charts. Historical and fabrication-temperature charts that support the position of global warming skeptics
(click on charts to enlarge)
Last week the BEST research team released their findings in regards to land surface temperatures. The BEST data matched up very closely with the IPCC's gold standard, the HadCRUT land temps sub-dataset. In summary, the Berkeley study had a few key points, including:
Since the BEST land surface results were so similar to the Hadley and CRU efforts, it is highly probable that the future BEST research will closely mimic the HadCRUT3 global temperature dataset as shown above in the chart on the left.
The latest HadCRUT dataset report (released today, 10/28/2011) through September 2011 reveals a very insignificant warming over the last 15 years, with zero correlation to increasing CO2 levels. The global HadCRUT linear trend if projected out means a total global temperature increase of +0.3 degrees by year 2100.
The chart on the right tracks the HadCRUT and GISS global temperature anomalies versus the NASA climate model prediction of global temperatures due to CO2 emissions. It is obvious, that the climate models are stupendously wrong in their estimate of the temperature impact of human CO2 emissions - if the models were correct, the HadCRUT and GISS temperature anomalies would resemble Hansen's 'green' curve. (Note: Climate predictions from the IPCC, its models and its experts are consistently wrong.)
Based on this most recent temperature and CO2 information, one can safely assume that the BEST researchers are no dummies.....that would explain their hedging comments that the human influence is 'overestimated' and that natural decadal oscillations may be driving temperatures instead of human CO2 emissions.
Source here. (click on image to enlarge)
Climate reality keeps defying (mocking?) the IPCC's Climategate scientists. When examining the global temperature trends, it is clear that global warming has actually been missing for the last 15 years. This has definitely been the case of the continental U.S. as the graph on the left depicts.
This chart represents the 15 years (180 months), starting October 1, 1997 and ending September 30, 2011. Per the latest NOAA/NCDC U.S. official temperature data records, the 12-month period ending September was the 7th coldest September-ending period for the last 15 years. In terms of a single month, September 2011 was the 21st warmest since 1895 (September 1998 was the warmest.)
The per century cooling trend of this period, a minus 3.2°F, took place in spite of the huge warmth produced by two large El Niño events during this 15-year span: 1997-1998 and 2009-2010.
For the 10-year period ending September 2011 (October 1, 2001 thru September 30, 2011 - 120 months), the cooling trend accelerates to a very significant minus 9.9°F per century rate - again, per the updated NOAA/NCDC temperature records. These
Additional U.S. temperature data for September 2011.
Temperature trends are not predictions.
Other modern temperature charts. Historical and fabrication-temperature charts.
Source here. (click on image to enlarge)
When looking at the temperature trends, it is clear that global warming has actually been missing for the last 15 years. This has definitely been the case of the continental U.S. as the graph on the left depicts.
This chart represents the 15 years (180 months), starting September 1, 1997 and ending August 31, 2011. Per the latest NOAA/NCDC U.S. temperature data records, the 12-month period ending Augut was the 6th coldest August-ending period for the last 15 years. In terms of a single month, August 2011 was the 2nd warmest since 1895 (August 1983 was the warmest.)
The per century cooling trend of this period, a minus 3.2°F, took place in spite of the huge warmth produced by two large El Niño events during this 15-year span: 1997-1998 and 2009-2010.
For the 10-year period ending August 2011 (September 1, 2001 thru August 31, 2011 - 120 months), the cooling trend accelerates to a very significant minus 10.9°F per century rate - again, per the updated NOAA/NCDC temperature records.
Other modern temperature charts. Historical and fabrication-temperature charts.
Read here. Santer et al. 2011 research supposedly determines that at least 17 years of data is required to "measure" humans' impact on the climate. Not 15 years, not 16, not 18, not 19, not 20, but most assuredly, their cherry-picked 17-year span is the new gold-standard.
"Our results show that temperature records of at least 17 years in length are required for identifying human effects on global-mean tropospheric temperature."
Soooo, what does 17 years of HadCRUT global temperatures and CO2 levels look like versus the previous 'C3' 15-year data plot? Good question!
Using 17 years (204 months) worth of data through the end of July 2011, the plot on the left reveals that global warming since August 1994 is rather modest and non-existent since 1998.
The linear trend from this 17-year span indicates that global temperatures will be only 0.85°C higher by January 1, 2100. The light blue fitted curve suggests that global temperatures are actually moving towards a cooling period, not a warming. The grey fitted curve for CO2 keeps to a linear path ("business as usual") it has long had.
Let's identify what human CO2 impacts (past, present and future) have had on the climate per this 17-year period:
Since this outcome is probably not what Santer et al. expected from looking at the most recent 17-year span, maybe they ought to retract their study for a major revision. It would seem the 17-year span might need to be changed - damn that pesky empirical evidence!
And btw, 'Dr. B.S. Violence' should apologize to everyone for wasting taxpayer money on what 69% of Americans already know.
Note1 to readers: Go here for 17-year charts for ocean and atmosphere temps.
Note2 to readers: The linear trend that produces 0.85°C by 2100 is not a prediction. Actual global temperatures may be higher or lower. No one knows for sure. Most importantly, as this 17-year evidence indicates, current climate models are completely clueless as to future temperatures.
Read here. As noted before, the Southern Hemisphere has seemingly been in a cooling phase that is bringing awful winter weather to many countries. (click on image to enlarge)
The frigid winter temperatures also include the polar area of Antarctica. Temps there are well below normal.
Previous global-cooling postings.
Read here. As the dotted trend line indicates on this German temperature chart, "global warming" is not so happening in Germany. The same is likely true for a number of nearby central European states.
And, to add to the AGW-alarmist scientists misery, and as most 'C3' readers are aware, "global warming" in the U.S. has actually been global cooling over the last 15 years, according to NOAA temperature datasets.
The fact that majors areas of the globe are cooling explains why warming has been trivial over the last 15 years, across the world. The lack of massive warming is a significant invalidation of the AGW hypothesis and runs counter to every major climate model based on the assumption that the climate in incredibly sensitive to human CO2 emissions.
Despite the hundreds of billions spent on these models and associated taxpayer expenditures on AGW research, the evidence is now conclusive that they are unable to predict accurately.
Additional modern, historical and fabricating-evidence temperature charts. Failed-prediction postings.
In recent years, winters in the Southern Hemisphere have been especially miserable, and it is happening again in 2011 for multiple countries. Examples of the brutal winter weather abound, including: Peru, Brazil, Chile, Bolivia, Australia, Tasmania, New Zealand, Argentina and Paraguay. (Update 7/27/11: More info on Australia autumn/winter weather; South America here; South Africa here. Update 8/1/11: Australia and more South Africa)
If global warming is actually happening, how is it that the Southern Hemisphere (S-H) winters are not becoming more mild as expected? (click on image to enlarge)
In reality, the S-H has not had any significant warming in over 15 years, and appears to be entering a cooling phase, which may explain the winter weather becoming worse.
The adjacent chart reveals a flat linear trend (green line) for S-H temperatures that goes all the way back to March of 1996. That's over 15 years (through May 2011) that the data clearly show no significant and no material warming for 50% of the world.
The aqua fitted curve indicates the recent cooling trend being experienced.
In contrast to the real-world, hard data of climate science (i.e. empirical evidence) the alarmist claims of "unprecedented," "unequivocal" and "accelerating" global warming are outright false, and should be immediately dismissed as blatant propaganda. Although the die-hard cultists will never stop denying the lack of global warming, the scientific proponents of AGW are now finally admitting that global warming is not global, nor is it warming.
Read here. Mass confusion and conflicted "consensus science" reigns supreme in the realm of AGW pseudo-science and the Gorian world-will-end style of hysteria. And it's all because the prophesied global warming has disappeared since 1998, throwing the ranks of the AGW-cult into fits of desperation.
Recently, we wrote about a peer-reviewed study (by scientists whom advocate human-caused global warming) that attempted to explain why global warming disappeared after 1998. In summary, their analysis blamed China's coal burning for the world's apparent cooling, which really does not hold up to close scrutiny.
Soon after, another group of global warming alarmist scientists released an analysis contending that China was not at fault for global cooling, but small, minor volcano eruptions were. This study, besides also confirming the global cooling that skeptics had identified a long time ago, seems to be another act of desperation by alarmists to explain away the inconvenient loss of global warming.
A major problem for these two studies, per the adjacent chart, is the fact that the Northern and Southern hemisphere's temperatures have behaved in opposing directions. One half of the world chooses slight warming since 1998, the other half votes for global cooling, so it would appear.
This inconvenient, empirical evidence readily invalidates the "global" in the global warming theory. It also invalidates both the China-is-causing-cooling and the minor-volcanoes-are causing-cooling aerosols speculation as causes for the lack of "global" warming since 1998.
The "world-ending" anthropogenic global warming caused by human CO2 emissions is supposed to be "global" except apparently it isn't; and often, it's not warming at all.
For example:
- per the NOAA/NCDC data, the continental U.S. has actually been cooling over the last 15-years;
- climate change alarmists are now finally admitting in the science literature that the world has not warmed since 1998;
- the latest NASA satellite technology shows no ocean warming since 2002;
- ocean heat content has basically been flat since 2003;
- and finally, all measurements taken to identify the atmospheric "hot" spot required by the AGW hypothesis have not found it.
That's pretty damning evidence - not a single key climate measurement reveals the holy grail trifecta of "unprecedented," "unequivocal" and "accelerating," global warming. But wait....it gets even worse.
Adding to the alarmists' misery of a failed hypothesis is a critical area of the globe that is so important it's the basis of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) proxy - the area of the NINO3.4 SST anomalies. The chart on the left, the NINO3.4 anomalies since 1900 show no warming; the chart on the right, the NINO3.4 anomalies from 1981 through June 2011, show no warming.
Essentially, a major proxy for global ocean temperatures has a flat trend for the past century plus.
To expand on the area that the NINO3.4 covers, there is a large Pacific ocean expanse (33% of world's ocean surface) that engulfs the NINO3.4 and closely mimics its temperature changes. This ocean area is known as the East Pacific. It stretches from pole to pole and is depicted on the map below (left).
As the chart on the right reveals, since 1981 this vast ocean region has not warmed, despite the massive amounts of human CO2 greenhouse gases and the "consensus" AGW hypothesis.
Soooo, how can a global warming hypothesis that has conspicuously failed every global warming empirical measure and validation test still be considered a viable scientific hypothesis? How can such abject, empirical failure by a hypothesis still allow it to resonate with the liberal/left/progressive elites? Well, just like their love affair with eugenics, awful and idiotic science can find a permanent home in the belly of the left because of the dangerous power and control it artificially bestows to the ruling classes, relative to the average citizen.
Much to the galactic chagrin of global warming alarmists and their collaborators at the NY Times and Washington Post, a major peer reviewed study by an avowed alarmist found no global warming since 1998. This finding confirms what the skeptics have been stating over the last 5 years.
When looking at the temperature trends, it is clear that global warming has actually been missing for the last 15 years. This has definitely been the case of the continental U.S. as the graph on the left depicts.
This chart represents the 15 years (180 months), starting July 1, 1997 and ending June 30, 2011. Per the latest NOAA/NCDC U.S. temperature data records, the 12-month period ending April was the 4th coldest June-ending period for the last 15 years. In terms of a single month, June 2011 was 1.6 degrees below the hottest June ever (June 1933). Source of chart here.
The per century cooling trend of this period, a minus 3.5°F, took place in spite of the huge warmth produced by two large El Niño events during this 15-year span: 1997-1998 and 2009-2010.
For the 10-year period ending June 2011 (July 1, 2001 thru June 30, 2011), the cooling trend accelerates to a very significant minus 13.0°F per century rate - again, per the updated NOAA/NCDC temperature records.
Additional modern, historical and fabricating-fake temperature charts.
Now that scientists have confirmed that global warming has been entirely missing since 1998, possibly the the lamestream press will finally gain the courage to finally report actual weather and climate facts, such as reporting the global cooling trend since 2002. This would be a huge improvement versus their modern method of doing climate science by press release.
Initially, they might start addressing the unprecedented warming that took place during the 1930s well before the large human CO2 emissions. The fact that the 1930s had a much larger impact on U.S. temperatures than either 1990s or the 2000s should be of interest; also very germane to the modern "unprecedented" warming deception foisted on them by climate scientists more interested in fame and fortune. (click on image to enlarge)
1930s: 24 states
1950s: 5 states
1990s: 5 states
2000s: 1 state
Updated: Both map and list above updated with more current information from here.
Additional modern temperature charts.
Note: Just prior to this posting, it became public that a new Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS) study confirms that global warming has been missing since 1998. This new study refutes James Hansen, Al Gore and all the IPCC Climategate scientists claims of "unequivocal," "unprecedented," and "accelerating" global warming they have made over recent years. Global warming skeptics have proven to be correct, which the below material also supports.
In a previous post, we reviewed the last 15 years of HadCRUT temperature records, which show that global warming has become insignificant. In fact, one could accurately state that a global cooling trend is now replacing a global warming trend in an "unequivocal" and "accelerating" manner, using the greens' own favored warming alarmist terms. (click on each image to enlarge)
When examining the past 15 years of monthly global temperature anomalies, the per century change from a warming trend to a cooling trend becomes clear. Calculating 10-year linear trends from the monthly anomalies, the above chart plots end of year per century trends (plus the May 2011 10-year trend).
As can be seen, since 2001 the per century trends have conclusively switched from a global warming direction to a global cooling direction. In addition, the early 2011 temperature anomalies confirm what has actually been taking place since 2001. If the May 2011 10-year trend continues, the global temperature by 2100 will have decreased by -0.67°C.
This warming to cooling reversal has happened in the face of "business as usual" increases in atmospheric CO2 levels. And this global temperature phenomenon reversal has occurred despite the "consensus" claims of IPCC "climate scientists" and predictions of the bureaucrats' climate models. (The lower left chart clearly depicts how badly the climate models have failed.)
The lower right chart depicts a similar global cooling trend outcome over the last 15 years. Using the same monthly anomaly data, this chart's per century trends are based on 5-year linear calculation.
Regardless of how the temperature anomaly records are examined, the last 15-year span has seen the global warming trend fade as the world seemingly moves into a global cooling mode (the continental U.S. 15-year record of temperatures confirms this cooling trend). How long this will persist and how deep the cooling trend may become is pure speculation. And indeed, there is no concrete, empirically proven, scientific reason to assume the cooling will continue - the climate is complex and chaotic, which makes accurate predictions impossible.
These are the take home facts:
1. Global warming is neither unequivocal, accelerating, or even unprecedented.
2. Global cooling is becoming a trend but it's not clear whether that trend is accelerating and unequivocal - circumstantial at this point.
3. Rapidly increasing atmospheric CO2 levels have not caused the requisite acceleration of global temperature increases.
4. CO2 levels appear to have little impact on global temperatures.
5. Global temperatures are in a deceleration mode, totally contrary to IPCC's climate models.
6. Recent severe weather events (2010 and 2011) are not a result of increasing global temperatures; based on the actual temperature evidence since 2001, recent severe weather would more likely be a result of accelerating cooling.
7. Climate models have been stupendously wrong about global warming and associated climate change, time after time.
Additional modern temperature charts. Unequivocal fake warming, temperature fabrication charts.
Read here and here. Well..okay...the quote in this post's title is what Phil Jones should have really said (he didn't). Instead, he recently proclaimed that global warming finally has become "statistically significant" since 1995.
Jones was speaking of the 15 years starting in 1996 and ending in 2010. Although the warming has become "statistically significant" in his opinion (not others), the actual level of warming is literally immaterial when put into the context of catastrophic warming (from 5 to 10 degrees Celsius by 2100) pushed by government payroll scientists enthralled (enriched?) with alarmism.
To better understand the level of immaterial warming that has happened, look at the chart above (adjacent). The red curve is a plot of monthly HadCRUT anomalies for the 15 years (180 months) ending May 2011. The light blue curve is a 2nd order curve fit of the anomalies. The black dots represent monthly atmospheric CO2 levels and gray curve the 2nd order fitting to those CO2 levels. (charts and stats done in Excel)
First, note how the blue curve turns south, indicating a direction of cooling for the HadCRUT global temps that many scientists believe will continue. The straight linear trend associated with the latest 15 years implies a warming of a tiny +0.53 degrees by January 1, 2100. In contrast, the 15-year period ending May,1996 had a linear trend that translates into an increase of +1.02 degrees by end of century, if that trend still existed - it doesn't. Did we say cooling yet?
Second, does that red curve look in the least like the accelerating, unequivocal and unprecedented global warming being claimed as happening by the UN's IPCC "elite" scientists? Nope, me neither.
Next, note the behavior of Phil Jones' (and the IPCC climate models') favorite climate forcing over the last 15 years. It is more than obvious that CO2 levels continue their long, relentless march upward, as they have done ever since WWII. And obviously, the chart clearly shows the two trends (CO2 and HadCRUT temps) diverging.
Visually, there appears to be no relationship between CO2 levels and global temperatures depicted in the chart. And in fact, the R2 statistic for the two comes in at an incredibly low +0.04 - in essence, it appears there is no valid relationship between CO2 and global temps. Of course, Phil Jones and the IPCC deny this, but the actual on-the-ground facts are undeniable: human CO2 emissions appear to have a marginal impact on global temperatures, well below the speculative predictions of the IPCC and its climate models.
One final note about global warming and the recent 2011 severe weather incidents. As the HadCRUT chart depicts, global temperatures started a major decline after March 2010. As temperatures categorically crashed, the world suffered from more cold, more snow, more tornadoes, more rain, more flooding and etc. And what do the lamestream media, Hollywood celebrities, left/liberal politicians and alarmist scientists blame? Why, of course, global warming and human CO2 emissions. Go figure.
Sooo, going back to the title of this post, Phil Jones would have been more accurate and truthful if he had said: "Although statistically significant, global warming over the last 15 Years has been rather insignificant, definitely immaterial, likely irrelevant, and basically inconsistent with the climate models." That sounds like it emanated from an honest, objective scientist, no?
BTW, below are charts for other major temperature datasets for the last 15 years ending May 2011. Regardless of the dataset, global temperatures are in a slight cooling phase presently and they could continue to go down, and then again, they may not. That's what natural climate change is about. (click on all images to enlarge)
Additional modern temperature charts.
Source here. (click on image to enlarge)
This chart represents the 15 years (180 months), starting April 1, 1997 and ending March 31, 2011. Per the latest NOAA/NCDC U.S. temperature data records, the 12-month period ending March 2011 was the 6th coldest March-ending period for the last 15 years. In terms of a single month, March 2011 was 79th coldest March in the past 117 years.
The per century cooling trend of this period, a minus 2.9°F, took place in spite of the huge warmth produced by two large El Niño events during this 15-year span: 1997-1998 and 2009-2010.
For the 10-year period ending March 2011, the cooling trend accelerates to a very significant minus 12.9°F per century rate - again, per the updated NOAA/NCDC temperature records. (click on image to enlarge)
At some point, U.S. continental warming will resume, but the extended decade-long plus global cooling trend persists, contradicting the experts. None of the IPCC climate models, nor "consensus" experts predicted this cooling trend for the continental U.S.
Additional modern temperature charts. Historical temperature charts.