The ever growing global warming science facts continue to make a shambles of the IPCC's and MSM's case that catastrophic global warming is ravaging Earth and humanity - the lies, myths and hysteria crumble under evidentiary weight
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The UN's IPCC's Climategate scientists and the mainstream media have been at the forefront of a concerted effort to both mislead and frighten policymakers and the public about CO2 emissions and hypothetical catastrophic results from modern global warming.
The perversion of climate science and the past complicity of the MSM in global warming alarmism propaganda is not only stunning but amazingly continues, despite all empirical evidence contrary to the fabricated alarmism.
Click on the rightmost image and read what the mainstream press recently wrote, in reference to hysterical alarmism. Now read what really happened. The simple facts are, one cannot trust any science "reporting" done by the MSM, let alone its coverage of global warming. For actual global warming and climate change facts and objective analysis, the higher quality information sources are here.
The leftmost image reveals the current condition of the modern "accelerating" global warming that both the IPCC and MSM claim is happening. This objective empirical evidence (from NASA / GISS - James Hansen's - climate research unit clearly indicates that over the last 15 years, through April 2012, that global warming is basically non-existent and that human CO2 has had little impact.
Finally, the damning revelations grow in the case of the bogus 'hockey stick' science that was perpetrated by the IPCC and the MSM - that science being that modern warming was "unprecedented" versus prior historical periods. The middle chart now confirms that the perversion of climate science for the glory of global warming alarmism was recklessly pursued, which is unequivocally corroborated by this newest evidence. Past historical temperature charts.
Conclusion: Global warming science facts have completely demolished the lies, myths and hysteria of the IPCC and the MSM. Yet, despite the overwhelming evidence, these "institutions" don't falter in their pursuit of a political agenda based on falsehoods. For an expanding cornucopia of reasons, no longer does either institution deserve the belief or trust of the public.
It's another connect the dots moment - climate model failure is standard operating procedure for NASA's James Hansen as empirical evidence confirms his abysmal failure at global warming predictions
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This first chart establishes that the actual growth of CO2 emissions has not only continued as 'business as usual' since 1988, it in fact has exceeded the BAU growth rate handsomely during recent years.
This second chart plots the actual observed annual temperatures (NASA/GISS & HadCRUT) versus the climate model predictions of global warming made by James Hansen of NASA. Even to the casual observer, the abysmal failure of climate model predictions is staggering.
The green curve is the 'business as usual' NASA global warming prediction if 1988 levels of CO2 emission growth continued (Scenario 'A'). The green dots represent actual NASA annual global temperatures. The red dot is what Hansen predicted for 2011 temperatures - the gap between the green and red 2011 dots represent the huge prediction error.
The aqua curve represents Hansen's Scenario 'C' for global temperatures if the world had completely restricted CO2 emission growth by year 2000 - that never happened as CO2 growth went beyond BAU growth since 1988.
This third chart is a plot of the HadCRUT global temperatures over the last 15 years through March 2012. The HadCRUT dataset is the IPCC's 'gold standard.' Clearly, global temperatures over the last 180 months have not warmed as predicted by NASA's climate model (nor as predicted by any other "consensus" climate model). Huge global warming prediction errors will continue as long as computer models that are primarily based on levels of CO2 emissions are utilized.
Conclusion: Connect the dots climate model failure is not a 'roll of the dice' - it is a known, glaring global warming prediction bias that is significantly robust. Since this is a 'known known,' as a precautionary principle decision, James Hansen et al. should be retired from NASA's climate modeling research unit. Why?
When known failed climate scientist(s) begets known bad climate science that then leads to known bad economic and energy policies, then a humane precautionary principle is required to remove the failed scientist(s) prior to a tipping point of economic damage to society being reached. Or, in other words, fire the hysterical idiot - he's responsible for an incredible misallocation of science research resources since the 80's, and more recently, the incredibly crippling regulation/energy policies of the Obama administration.
Since Bill McKibben urges everyone to connect-the-dots, share the link to this 'C3' article with all your Facebook, Twitter, email and LinkedIn friends and contacts.
The fanatical green, anti-CO2 activist Bill McKibben has urged everyone to 'connect the dots' - so be it - HadCRUT researchers did just that and confirmed that global warming morphed to global cooling despite huge increases in human CO2 emissions
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It's the last day of April 2012 and Phil Jones just released the March global temperature information. This latest update confirms that global temperatures are not "accelerating" nor "unequivocally" warming due to CO2 emissions.
As can be seen, the adjacent chart reflects the recent global cooling phenomenon.
Truth be told, the new global data clearly show that global temps are little influenced by CO2 levels. Plus, the over-hyped global warming is causing climate change alarmism has essentially no merit, per the data, thus falsifying Bill McKibben's entire career as an anti-CO2 crusader.
This newest empirical evidence affirms that highly paid (by the taxpayer) and arrogant climate scientists, and their billion dollar computer models, are often wrong, big time. Anti-science activists like McKibben would do well to show a little more humility about mother nature and also express at least an ounce of skepticism when listening to bureaucrat scientists with an agenda.
Conclusion: Connect the dots global warming does not exist and most certainly is not causing normal "climate change" weather events. If bad weather is happening more frequently, then activists might carefully examine the actual temeprature data and finally start asking if cooling is driving weather events.
Runaway greenhouse effect facts (or lack thereof) - while James Lovelock recently admits to hyping global warming alarmism, James Hansen still does crazy fearmongering - on video he predicts boiling oceans
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Look closely at the above - this is what "boiling" oceans look like after some 1.3 trillion tons of CO2 emissions poured into the atmosphere since 1850. As this tropical island paradise indicates, the long held belief of CO2 caused global warming is not supported by the tropic's data in the least, let alone supporting NASA's Hansen's recent crazy prediction of boiling oceans.
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At the 2:12 minute mark of this recent video, Hansen does his crazy "boiling ocean" hype - it's a total disregard of facts and plausibility. Despite this craziness, there are scads of American coastal elites and lazy (stupid? gullible?) mainstream media types that buy into Hansen's ludicrous, catastrophic warming "science" predictions.
Still think there are runaway greenhouse effect facts that would lend credence to boiling oceans? Think again - expert tropical sea temperature measurements are conclusive - it ain't happening.
The Cook Island sea surface temperature data are another factual reality check - the tipping point of runaway global warming is not taking place and, without question, should be heavily ridiculed by all the legitimate science community and an objective press as the bogus scare hype it represents.
Runaway greenhouse effect facts: "Tipping point" global warming is not supported by the evidence; it's not even remotely plausible per the empirical data from the tropics; the world is not going to end from human-caused boiling oceans; and, NASA's James Hansen is possibly crazy, with fame, fortune and the drooling love of the MSM press lapdogs.
Note: Black dots in both charts above represent monthly CO2 levels. Sea surface temperatures plotted represent the longest continuous monthly measurements (without any monthly gaps) for both island locations.
The IPCC often claims its climate models are infallible and all knowing when it comes to the climate - new study reveals major climate modeling failure as they are unable to accurately simulate Greenland's past climate accurately
Read here. Greenland's current climate is heavily influenced by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which has a lengthy periodicity. The AMO is a natural climate variability phenomenon having a strong impact on North Atlantic's regional temperatures.
Recent analysis of the Greenland ice cores, by Chylek et al., has proven that the powerful AMO variability has been part and parcel of the Greenland climate for thousands of years, pushing temperatures higher and lower depending on the cycle point.
This natural, internal variability has no connection to external factors (forcings) such as the CO2 greenhouse gas.
In addition, the scientists determined that the climate models, favored by the IPCC and other non-empirical based scientists, are unable to faithfully mimic the ancient past AMO variability due to geographic differences (location differences) - a major climate modeling failure.
"...examine evidence of the AMO that is contained in several ice core records distributed across Greenland. The researchers were looking to see whether there were changes in the character of the AMO over different climatological periods in the past, such as the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period—periods that long preceded large-scale human aerosol emissions. And indeed they found some. The AMO during the Little Ice Age was characterized by a quasi-periodicity of about 20 years, while the during the Medieval Warm Period the AMO oscillated with a period of about 45 to 65 years...The observed intermittency of these modes over the last 4000 years supports the view that these are internal ocean-atmosphere modes, with little or no external forcing...However, the geographic variability of these periodicities indicated by ice core data is not captured in model simulations." [Petr Chylek, Chris Kenneth Folland, Leela Mary Frankcombe, Henk A. Dijkstra, Glen Lesins, Manvendra K Dubey 2012: Geophysical Research Letters]
Conclusion: The climate (ie, temperatures) of Greenland and other northern latitude areas has principally been driven by the periodicity of the Atlantic Multidecal Oscillation. The non-accurate simulation of this variability is another climate modeling failure that needs to be addressed.
The actual greenhouse gas facts are considered to be weak evidence of catastrophic global warming hypothesis by the vast majority of scientists - latest NASA-GISS empirical information confirms why
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The empirical evidence is so overwhelming that even the vast majority of alarmist climate scientists (over 97%) agree that the predicted "accelerating" global warming has been non-existent over the last 15 years.
The greenhouse gas facts are so starkly inconvenient for the IPCC that its apostles have had to resort to outright fraud. This has been the unfortunate result in their attempt to discredit any scientist who analyzes the actual facts, such as the adjacent plot of global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels.
"NYT's Revkin unloads on Peter Gleick! 'Gleick's use of deception in pursuit of his cause after years of calling out climate deception has destroyed his credibility and harmed others'...Revkin: 'One way or the other, ...That is his personal tragedy and shame (and I'm sure devastating for his colleagues, friends and family)'...His admitted acts of deception in acquiring the cache of authentic Heartland documents surely will sustain suspicion that he created the summary, which Heartland's leadership insists is fake'"
Conclusion: Greenhouse gas facts continue to be very weak empirical evidence of catastrophic CO2-induced global warming as hypothesized by the UN's IPCC and its associated "scientists."
Last 15 years (thru March) global temperature trend: +0.77 degree increase by 2100
Last 10 years (thru March) global temperature trend: +0.07 degree increase by 2100
For additional temperature charts, visit these 'C3' pages: Modern, regional, historical and fabricating-fake temperature charts. Note: Linear trends are not predictions.
If the current modern global cooling continues, winters in the Northern Hemisphere and summers in the Southern Hemispere could be colder - human CO2 emissions may actually be irrelevant
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From 1960 through 2011, over 1 trillion tons of CO2 have been emitted by humans from the burning of fossil fuels. The alarmist global warming theory requires that all those emissions still remain in the atmosphere - per the AGW alarmists, emissions will stay resident in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years.
But as the empirical evidence mounts, those trillions of tons of emissions are having a very small impact on global temperatures - so small, many of the world's best scientists are now questioning the relevancy of human CO2 on the world's climate. The previous modern warming has convincingly morphed into modern global cooling.
The top left chart is a plot of CO2 levels versus global temperatures for December, January and February. These months are typically the coldest for the Northern Hemisphere's winter and warmest for the Southern Hemisphere's summer. As the chart reveals, the last 15 years have seen significant cooling for these three months - including 1998, the trend is a minus 1.3 degrees/century.
The chart on the right, plots the Dec-Jan-Feb temperatures from 1960. The blue shaded areas represent the cooling periods that sandwich the modern warming that ended in 1998 with a kaboom - the Super El Niño of 1998.
Clearly, the massive 1 trillion+ tons of CO2 emissions are not making global temperatures "accelerate" prior to 1977, nor for the post-1998 period.
Conclusions: Modern cooling has prevailed during the December, January and February months since 1998; vast human CO2 emissions are not producing a global warming climate; and, the current cooling phase could switch to warming, or remain as is, depending on natural climatic fluctuations, regardless of CO2.
The IPCC's gold-standard dataset, HadCRUT, just announced the coldest February in the last 18 years - is this the end of modern global cooling?
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While many Americans welcomed a balmy-like February winter, this minor regional warming in some parts of the U.S. was overwhelmed by an otherwise large global cooling. Last time February global temperatures were colder than February 2012 was in 1994 - 18 years prior.
If this February cooling trend since 1994 continues, by 2100 February temperatures will be 0.7 degrees (C) cooler.
Modern global cooling for all months over the last 10 years through February has a more prominent per century trend of minus 1.1 degrees (C) (or a minus 0.95 degrees by 2100). It has now become a unanimous consensus that the 80's and 90's warming span turned into a cooling (be it slight) phase over the last 10 years.
Back to February. By examining past February temperatures since 1850 in more detail, it becomes clear that the HadCRUT dataset does not provide any empirical evidence of accelerated warming of February temperatures - temperature change is not constantly increasing, nor even positive every year for that matter.
Instead, as the top chart reveals, temperature change from one February to the next follows a consistent pattern of negative and positive changes, going back and forth, from 1850 to present day.
Now look closer at the chart (click to enlarge). That purple line is the linear trend of February temperature changes - it's flat, indicating that global February temperatures are not unequivocally warming. Look at the red curve - that's the 30-year simple average of February temperature change.
Note how the red curve has remained within a narrow volatility band ever since 1880 and all the way through February 2012. Again, clearly global February temperatures are not exhibiting the long-predicted accelerating temperature change regime that was going to make winters disappear in the Northern Hemisphere.
Interesting to note, as CO2 levels kept up their constant growth (black dots), when were the biggest positive and negative changes in February temperatures over the last 50 years? Way back in 1973 and 1974 (back-to-back) when the globe was experiencing its previous global cooling phase, not during the warming of the 80's and 90's.
And, what would the climate change statistics look like if there were actually accelerating temperature increases? The adjacent chart shows that: the last 10 years of actual February temperature change were altered to artificially increase by +0.25 degree every February. That level of accelerated change caused the purple trend line to slope up, and caused the red 30-year average curve to break out of its narrow band of variation, significantly.
Conclusions: HadCRUT global, the IPCC's gold-standard temperature dataset, indicates that the world has experienced a modern global cooling trend over the past 10 years; in addition, the month of February has experienced a cooling trend since February of 1994; the recent past cooling does not mean either future regional and/or global warming will not happen; the "powerful" greenhouse gas, CO2, turns out not to be very powerful ('lame' comes to mind); and, zero of the multi-billion dollar "expert" climate models predicted this modern global cooling period.
For additional temperature charts, visit these 'C3' pages: Modern, regional, historical and fabricating-fake temperature charts - hey, if you only look at the above charts you'll be accused of 'cherry picking' by someone!
Note: February 2012 tied February 2008 as the coldest February since 1994.
Latest global temperature info refutes the extraordinary 'cherry picking' of Tom Yulsman, well known CAGW climate model cultist advocate - the doomsday kool-aid "science" of fanatics green-disoriented individuals
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To be honest, I've been waiting for almost three years to write about this article penned by Tom Yulsman, but never mentioned it until now. His recent, idiotic challenging article about 'cherry picking' by skeptics just flat-out exhibits the typical brain-gyrating hypocrisy mental process of your standard cult fanatic warmista, and then I got thinking about that old article.
"...I [Tom Yulsman] drank the cap-and-trade Kool-Aid, spiked by a generous portion of climate modeling."
No shit, Sherlock. Tom Yulsman fancies himself an environmental journalist, but in reality, he's a hack propagandist advocate for the climate doomsday cult tribe located in his region of Colorado. An propagandist advocate for a cargo cult unique style of climate-science where Kool-Aid appears to be the chosen elixir.
In his most recent article, he chooses to push the blatant propaganda misunderstanding that skeptics only 'cherry pick' their climate data, but then proceeds, in literal black and white, to demonstrate his superior skills as the ultimate 'cherry picking' CAGW cultist tribe spokesperson. Let's review:
Tom Yulsman, doomsday cultist advocate and cherry picking expert
Synopsis: Yulsman uses the first three weeks of March, 2012 as evidence that humans are causing global warming - "But over the very long run, the picture has been pretty clear: Humans are winning — as this March’s extraordinary weather suggests"...alrighty then, Tom.
First, talk about 'cherry picking'. This cultist advocate basis his whole article on a portion of a single freaking month
Second, the early March warmth was primarily located in certain regional areas of the U.S., not a global phenomenon - more convenient 'cherry picking'
Third, as the NASA global atmosphere temperature chart #1 shows, March through the 26th has not exhibited global temperatures out of the ordinary.
Fourth, as the HadCRUT global temperature charts #2-5 reveal, global warming has been modest, to non-existent over the last 30 years, depending on the given time span examined, despite the obvious 30-year, non-stop growth of CO2 levels.
Fifth, Yulsman exposes his amazing lack of climate science knowledge (cultist ignorance?) when he wonders about the following: "Watts up with the 17-year period." It's a 'you've-got-to-be-kidding' moment - this "science" journalist isn't even aware that a major CAGW climate modeler published a study in 2011 claiming that temperature benchmarks should be using 17 years as the measurement period. (Psssst...Tom, try googling "climate +17-years"...second item on first page of search. You're welcome. Say hello to Ben S. for me. Thanks.)
Sixth, he 'cherry picks' quotes from Jeff Masters, a known internet weather crackpot, who expounds on the March warming in Michigan, yet actual NOAA U.S. temperature data has March 1910 as warmer and that goes unmentioned.
Seventh, he 'cherry picks' a single study about the 2003 European heat wave that claims that event was a result of human factors, yet ignores all the other studies suggesting such heat waves are natural phenomenons.
Eighth, I'm not making this up, Yulsman 'cherry picks' a single, "renowned," cartoon video as his scientific evidence that humans are to blame for global warming - gee, I wonder if instead this video would help better explain AGW to Tom's erudite readers:
xxxxx
Ninth, knowing full well that the CAGW cultists scientists can't explain the lack of recent global warming over the last 15 years, Tom chooses to 'cherry pick' a single study that speculates that all the previous predicted warming from the climate models is really disappearing into the deep oceans. However, as our cult propagandist advocate fails to mention, all the empirical scientific evidence disproves that AGW alarmist speculation.
Tenth, going back to those 'cherry picked' first 3-weeks of March, 'Kool-Aid' Tom just happens to forget to speak of the previous 52-week period - and for good reason. Obviously, as the chart on the right shows, the CAGW fanatics faithful are notoriously reluctant to talk about those temperatures, which has the world monstrously cooling at a minus 18.3 degrees by 2100.
Note: Readers, please remember that linear trend figures used in the charts are not predictions! Also, the charts' blue curves are 2nd order polynomial trend fits as calculated by Excel.
Conclusion:Tom Yulsman, the 'cherry picking' expert and climate doomsday cultist advocate, reminds me of Harold Camping and all the other crazies eccentrics. In my mind's-eye, Tom even looks like Harold - yikes!
A plethora of temperature charts that CAGW cult tribe 'cherry pickers' always avoid: Modern, regional, historical and fabricating-fake temperature charts, and of course, an extensive list of severe weather events prior to the 1980's that the cultists always seem to forget about.
p.s. Update: Rest assured, image #6 above is not really Tom Yulsman! He is infinitely better looking and younger. And more than 'robustly' likely, he is a great guy; someone to go out have an after work beverage with and shoot the skeptics shit with - just don't let him 'cherry pick' the Kool-Aid drinks. :-)
AGW alarmist climate scientists predicted that increasing human CO2 emissions would cause an increase in water vapor with the result being a global warming tipping point - empirical evidence completely discredits that prediction
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Read here. Very simply, for the IPCC's climate models predicted runway global warming to happen, there has to be a positive feedback from atmospheric CO2 that pushes the climate to a "tipping point." The positive feedback in the IPCC's computer models is an ever increasing atmospheric water vapor level (greenhouse gas) due to rising temperatures from CO2.
In the real world though, that positive feedback has not happened, as the adjacent chart of relative humidity (atmospheric water vapor) and global temperatures shows. And now, a new peer reviewed study in the prestigious Journal of Climate is confirming that the global warming tipping point hypothesis is without any empirical merit.
"A paper published today in the Journal of Climate finds that relative humidity has been decreasing 0.5% per decade across North America during the 62 year period of observations from 1948-2010. Computer models of AGW show positive feedback from water vapor by incorrectly assuming that relative humidity remains constant with warming while specific humidity increases....."Over 1/4 billion hourly values of temperature and relative humidity observed at 309 stations located across North America during 1948-2010 were studied...The averages of these seasonal trends are 0.20 C/decade and 0.07 hPa/decade which correspond to a specific humidity increase of 0.04 g/kg per decade and a relative humidity reduction of 0.5%/decade."" [V. Isaac and W. A. van Wijngaarden 2012: Journal of Climate]
Conclusion: The IPCC alarmist global warming tipping point does not exist over the long term - instead, over periods less than a decade, the climate will likely return to an equilibrium position due to built-in negative feedbacks.
James Hansen has provided proof over the last few decades that climate models are worthless as climate prediction tools - will NASA & the IPCC admit failure?
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Using the December-end temperature anomalies (chart on left), it is readily apparent that NASA's James Hansen is entirely incapable of producing accurate global temperature predictions over the long-term. His predictions have been so bad that even the mainstream press is finally coming around to the realization that the alarmist global warming scenarios are truly without merit.
The second chart (on the right) exhibits the non-predicted deceleration of global temperatures over the last 15 years using the IPCC's gold-standard HadCRUT dataset.
Whether it is long or short-term, Hansen/NASA models are no better than a Ouija board as a tool to predict global temperatures. This massive failure by Hansen et al can also be seen in his model's prediction of ocean heat content and sea level rise.
The IPCC's "Climate Bible" relies on the HadCRUT (HC) global temperature dataset for its analysis - the last 100 years of HC data reveals the weak CO2 and global warming relationship
A previous 'C3' post regarding CO2 and NOAA / NCDC global temperatures generated a lot of interest, especially the second chart titled: "The Case Against CO2." That chart revealed that CO2's impact on global temperatures was essentially very weak over the last 50 years, ending 2011, versus the prior 50 years ending 1961.
We received questions as to how the famous HadCRUT (the IPCC's favorite global temperature dataset) compared to the previously used NOAA/NCDC dataset. The adjacent chart shows the result of switching to the all important HC data.
As one can discern from this chart, the result is essentially the same for the two datasets (see previous NOAA/NCDC chart).
Conclusions:
The 50-year period ending 1961 had little CO2 growth, yet global temperatures increased significantly more than the "unprecedented" and "accelerating" global warming of the 50-year period ending 2011.
The growth of CO2 levels has an inconsistent effect on global temperatures suggesting the CO2 and temperature relationship is not robust - it is actually frail
Global temperatures are not "accelerating" because of CO2 during the last 50 years
Modern global warming over last 50 years was not "unprecedented" versus earlier periods
Other climate dynamics and inputs primarily drive temperature and climate change - the trace gas CO2 has only a trace impact in comparison
Many global warming alarmist scientists make the claim that CO2 is the world's thermostat - NOAA climate evidence totally debunks that bogus claim
The urban myth of the all powerful climate trace gas CO2 has led both alarmist climate scientists and EPA bureaucrats with political agendas to actually claim that CO2 is like a furnace's thermostat. Just dial the increase/decrease of CO2 change desired, and like a furnace, the earth's temperature will respond up/down accordingly.
That claim is robust, bogus political propaganda with zero scientific merit, as NOAA's empirical science collection efforts have well established. (click chart to enlarge)
This chart plots actual annual changes in atmospheric levels (from 1880 through 2011) versus actual annual changes in NOAA/NCDC global temperatures for the same time period. As can be seen, the annual change in CO2 (the black columns) have little if any impact of annual temp change (the red-orange curve). The R^2 measurement of the CO2 and temperature relationship is a meager +0.016 - that would be a R^2 of teeny-weeny proportions (essentially there is no cause and effect relationship).
The longer term view supports that finding also. The green curve on the chart is the 20-year average of CO2 level changes; the blue curve is the 20-year average of global temperature changes. Clearly, changes in CO2 are not driving changes in temperatures - CO2 is not a "thermostat".
Conclusions:
Global annual temperature changes are not a result of changes in CO2 levels
CO2 is not some magical global thermostat
Other climate dynamics drive major temperature change and climate change
The above conclusions do not preclude CO2 having a consistently minor, beneficial warming influence on global temperatures
Latest data from NASA / GISS confirms the robust deceleration of global warming, revealing the non-significant impact on global temperatures by CO2
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The AGW alarmist claim of "accelerating" global warming requires, at minimum, an increasing rate of temperature change as denoted by an increasing slope of a linear trend line. The two above charts plot the rolling 10-year trend (slope) of the annual GISS temperature data - the left axis of both charts represents slope in terms of temperature change per hundred years (century).
The leftmost chart reveals a large variation in speed and level of temperature change since the 1800s. The right chart takes the same data but only plots the last 15 years of GISS "acceleration" and "deceleration."
From the 2001 peak of a +3.48°C/century temperature rate, it has now fallen at the end of 2011 to an almost flat rate of +0.04°C/century temperature increase. Per the actual evidence, the increasing atmospheric levels of CO2 (grey arrow and grey area of charts) has zero influence on whether global temperatures are accelerating or decelerating.
These two charts do not represent predictions of future temperatures, but both clearly indicate that the IPCC and major climate research agencies have been substantially wrong in predicting "accelerating" warming.
Likewise, they have been substantially wrong in their assumption that the climate sensitivity to increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 is positive, growing and nearing a runaway tipping point. The empirical evidence proves all of these assertions to be essentially false.
Conclusions:
Global temperatures are decelerating, not accelerating
Rising CO2 levels do not cause global temperatures to continuously increase
Climate sensitivity to CO2 levels is not robust
IPCC predictions of "runaway" temps and climate "tipping points" are without empirical merit
Science elites and their mainstream press comrades have been pushing the fantasy of rapid, accelerating global warming - NOAA proves they were lying
The claim that human CO2 causes rapid, accelerating global warming is empirically a very bogus statement.
As evident by the adjacent NOAA / NCDC data, the "accelerating" warming claim is without merit - it is a literally a myth that MSM reporters and establishment science elites use to serve their political agenda purposes.
As the orange circles indicate, annual temperature change constantly fluctuates between positive and negative values, and the blue 10-year average reveals zero "accelerated" warming. The growth of CO2 levels (grey columns and curve) reveals little influence on temperature change.
To put this in real world context, think about it this way:
1. If a portfolio manager said the orange circles represent accelerating investment returns, year after year, that person would likely be incarcerated or institutionalized for blatant fraud.
2. If the Google CEO told his board of the directors that the orange circles represent accelerating growth of Google profits, year after year, the board (even board member Al Gore) would have no choice but to fire the CEO for either gross stupidity or robust lying.
Is it any wonder that the American public trust in the mainstream press and the climate science establishment continues to plunge?
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center just released today their global temperature dataset for the year ending 2011 (and yes, they conducted another bizarre revision of the entire historical dataset - more on that in a later posting). (click on images to enlarge)
The chart on the left plots the NCDC global temperatures for the last 15 years ending 2011, plus the atmospheric CO2 levels. As the empirical evidence undeniably shows, there is no correlation between global temps and CO2, and the blue curve actually suggests a movement towards a cooling era.
The linear trend for the NCDC temperatures represents an increase by year 2100 of only +0.40°C degree - definitely not "accelerating" warming using anyone's definition. (see new post on "accelerating" here)
The measly "global warming" of the last 15 years is one story and another interesting story about global warming is found in looking at the last 100 years. When the 100 year span is broken into 50-year segments, one ending 2011 and the other ending 1961, the myth of dangerous global warming from human CO2 emissions really starts to unravel. (see update with HadCRUT temperature data)
The first red bar on second chart (chart on right) represents the increase of the 2011 mean temperature over that of 1961; the second red bar represents the increase of the 1961 mean temperature over that of 1911. Clearly, the increase of the mean temperature during the first 50-year period surpasses that of the last 50-year period ending 2011.
And the greater increase in mean temperature during the first 50 year period took place with a smaller increase in atmospheric CO2 levels, as depicted by the grey bars. In fact, the CO2 level increase over the last 50 years was greater than 4 times the earlier 50-year period.
The take home from both charts is rather simple and obvious: the urban myths of accelerating, unequivocal, irreversible, unprecedented, rapid, dangerous modern warming from human CO2 are just that - myths. In addition, these two charts reveal that any proposal suggesting that by controlling CO2 emissions it would be like controlling a global temperature "thermostat" is a bogosity bordering on insanity.
Summary: Both global warming and cooling have happened in the recent past, and both will occur again over the next 100 years, regardless of CO2 emissions.
IPCC "experts" and climate models predicted that CO2 increases would cause runaway growth in atmospheric water vapor & temperatures - wrong on both counts
As the adjacent chart shows, atmospheric CO2 levels have been methodically rising. Per the IPCC's climate models and its Climategate experts, the rising CO2 should cause a water vapor "tipping point" that would cause "runaway" warming. It hasn't, on both counts.
The bold blue curve reveals atmospheric relative humidity actually decreasing (less water vapor) over the last 17 years since the end of 1994. The bold red curve represents the slowing growth of atmospheric warming, as measured by NASA's own satellite.
In essence, the fabled positive feedback the climate models use does not exist, and climate sensitivity to CO2 levels is robustly lower than assumed.
If the 17-year satellite linear trend were to continue unchanged, the global temperature increase by year 2100 would be only +1.13 degrees, well below the IPCC's minimum prediction. The last 10-year linear trend (not shown in chart) indicates an increase of a measly +0.3 degrees for global temps by 2100, which would be barely perceptible.
Simply stated, the IPCC can't predict squat, especially anything to do with climate changes due to human CO2. Establishment science and coastal elites are literally besides themselves as the empirical evidence continues to affirm that the "consensus" IPCC catastrophic AGW hypothesis is at best, lame, and more likely just plain invalid.
Note: This analysis used a 17-year span, which Climategate's infamous Ben Santer prefers. Download data file used for Excel chart (CO2 data was superimposed on temperature and humidity chart).
The Antarctica climate evidence is irrefutable - the southern polar region is cooling, not warming as IPCC predicted
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Read here. The chart on the left is new empirical evidence released by the German climate research organization, the Alfred Wegener Institute. Their polar weather station temperature records clearly confirm the cooling trend as previously measured by satellite over the last 30 years (chart on the right).
In addition, a new peer reviewed study found that over the last 30 years the Antarctica snowmelt has been trending down, which substantiates the observed cooler temperatures as the above plots show.
"Surface snowmelt is widespread in coastal Antarctica. Satellite-based microwave sensors have been observing melt area and duration for over three decades.....The paper actually shows a declining trend in snowmelt over the past 31 years, although not statistically significant. Of note, the abstract states, "other than atmospheric processes likely determine long-term ice shelf stability." Translation: increased CO2 and other 'greenhouse gases' do not threaten stability of the Antarctic ice shelf." [P. Kuipers Munneke, G. Picard, M. R. van den Broeke, J. T. M. Lenaerts, E. van Meijgaard 2011: Geophysical Research Letters]
New research published in 2011 & 2012 continues to build on a major 1999 study that found increased sun activity (solar flux, etc.) is a significant cause of modern global warming
While reviewing the bounty of solar and climate information found at the Global Warming Science site, we found the adjacent chart (this is the 'C3' revised version using annual HadCRUT global temperatures instead of monthly).
Clearly, there is a strong relationship between solar activity (magnetic solar flux) and global temperatures.
The relationship is not perfect but it represents a significant improvement over the incredibly lame human-CO2 and global warming / climate change relationship claimed by the IPCC's anti-CO2 Climategate scientists and alarmists.
"The solar wind, because it is an extended ionized gas of very high electrical conductivity, drags some magnetic flux out of the Sun, thereby filling the heliosphere with the weak interplanetary magnetic field. Magnetic reconnection - the merging of oppositely-directed magnetic fields such that they become connected to each other - between the interplanetary field and the Earth's magnetic field, allows energy from the solar wind to enter the near-Earth environment. The Sun's properties, such as its luminosity, are related to its magnetic field, though the connections are as yet not well understood. Moreover, changes in the heliospheric magnetic field have been linked with changes in total cloud cover over the Earth, which may influence global climate change. Here we report that the measurements of the near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field reveal that the total magnetic field leaving the sun has risen by a factor 1.4 since 1964." [M. Lockwood, R. Stamper, and M.N. Wild 1999: Nature]
"The authors examined measurements of near-earth interplanetary magnetic field to determine the total magnetic flux leaving the sun since 1868...authors were able to show that the total magnetic flux leaving the sun has risen by a factor of 1.41 over the period 1964-1996. Surrogate measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field previous to this time indicate that this parameter has increased by a factor of 2.3 since 1901...results of this study lead us to wonder just how much of the reported 0.6°C global temperature rise of the last century might be a result of the more than two-fold increase in the total magnetic solar flux over that period. We may now, at long last, be moving closer than ever in our effort to understand the importance of the sun in driving 20th century climate change."
Per the famous Central England Temperature dataset, the long predicted global warming apocalypse from CO2 is not happening
(click on charts to enlarge)
The adjacent chart is a plot of the oldest temperature record available: the Central England Temperature dataset.
Despite massive amounts of CO2 emissions over the last 60 years, the long-term trend remains well below a one degree (+0.26°C) increase per century rate.
As the inset chart reveals, the more recent 10-year trend has the representative UK region cooling at an amazing -8.7°C per century rate (a -7.7°C decrease by year 2100).
The following chart is a plot of one-year temperature changes (moving 12-month), with the historical CO2 levels depicted. Clearly, one-year temperature changes are not getting larger, and ever larger, as an "accelerated" warming climate would require.
The red curve is a twenty-year average of the temperature changes, which indicates no long-term influence on CET temperature change by CO2 levels, natural or human.
Conclusion: UK citizens need not worry about "rapid," "accelerating" and "irreversible" warming. There is no credible empirical evidence supporting such CO2-AGW alarmism.
Additional modern and historical temperature charts. Data Sources: CET & CO2. Charts created with Excel. Note: Linear trends are not predictions.
Due to the incredibly bad reporting by the mainstream press, many Americans believe the U.S. suffers from "accelerated warming" and increasing severe weather - neither are true
First, as the adjacent chart reveals, U.S. temperatures are not "accelerating." The red curve is the 12-month moving average (since 1895), which clearly shows no acceleration, and shows zero relationship to the growing levels of atmospheric CO2 levels (black dots).
As can be seen, U.S. monthly temperatures have a wide variation (the blue up/down plot) in any given year, fluctuating between low and high extremes.
Again, no "accelerating" warming trend is evident from the actual temperature empirical evidence. (click on charts to enlarge)
Read here. This second chart plots the total number of severe tornadoes (F2, F3, F4 & F5) in decade groups (the 2000's include 2011). This actual empirical evidence substantiates that severe weather events, as represented by extreme tornadoes, are not increasing in the U.S.
Conclusion: The mainstream press (eg., NYT, WaPo, Time, CBS, NBC, LA Times, etc.) willfully and unequivocally reports misinformation regarding severe weather and global warming. They do so to purposefully mislead the public and policymakers regarding global warming and climate change.
The NOAA / NCDC climate research group published year-end U.S. temperature data confirming that U.S. is still cooling - CO2 has zero global warming impact on U.S.
As the Climategate 2.0 emails continue to establish, the alarmist climate scientists claiming "unprecedented" and "accelerating" global warming actually can't find either. When examining the global temperature trends, it is clear that global warming has actually been missing for the last 15 years. This has definitely been the case of the continental U.S., as the chart below depicts. (click on to enlarge)
This "global cooling" of the U.S continues in spite of growing CO2 emissions. Human CO2 emissions continue to grow at a business-as-usual pace with a record set in 2010 for the largest emissions ever.
The NOAA/NCDC chart on the left represents the 15 years (180 months), starting January 1, 1997 and ending December 31, 2011. Per these latest U.S. official temperature data records, the 12-month period ending December was the 5th coldest December-ending period for the last 15 years.
In terms of a single month, December 2011 was the 22nd warmest since 1895 (December 1998 was the warmest).
The per century cooling trend of this period, a minus 4.4°F, took place despite the huge warmth produced by two large El Niño events during this 15-year span: 1997-1998 and 2009-2010.
For the 10-year period ending December 2011 (Januart 1, 2002 thru December, 2011 - 120 months), the cooling trend accelerates to a very significant minus 7.2°F per century rate - again, per the updated NOAA/NCDC temperature records.
Please note: The linear temperature trend, as shown in the NOAA chart, is not a prediction.
Satellite measurements confirm that global warming has stopped over the last 15 years despite large increases of atmospheric CO2 levels
The chart on the left has to be extremely painful and embarrassing for the IPCC's Climategate alarmists and their 'big green' and MSM comrades.
Despite the large increases of atmospheric CO2 levels, the global temperatures have barely increased - contrary to predictions from the IPCC, NOAA and NASA's GISS. Per the linear trend of the adjacent chart, the projected temperature increase by year 2100 will only be a ludicrously tiny +0.05 degree (yes, only 1/20th of a single degree).
The grey curve/background indicates the monotonous growth of CO2 levels, while the blue curve reveals temperatures trending slightly cooler over the last 15 years. One could easily surmise from this chart that increased CO2 levels (due to human CO2 emissions) have actually "cooled" the planet since the earth-fever of the 1997-98 El Niño event.
Obviously, the satellite provides further empirical evidence that human CO2 emissions are very unlikely to be a major force driving global temperatures and/or climate change. The lack of observable correlation between monthly temperatures and monthly CO2 levels is stunning.
And here's a 'C3' prediction to take to the bank: the mainstream press will not provide its readers and viewers with this actual satellite data that literally contradicts their past hysterical "global-warming reporting."
Additional modern and historical temperature charts. Source of temperature and CO2 data for above Excel chart. [Note: linear trends are not predictions]
Scientists from Jet Propulsion Lab and Univ. of Washington determine that fresh water from Russia's rivers and the Arctic Oscillation are major factors for Arctic sea ice melt
Read here. The 'Big Green' controlled IPCC and the typical Climategate scientist have publicly claimed that the recent Arctic sea ice melt is entirely due to human CO2 emissions. The majority of climate scientists don't agree with this IPCC stance, knowing full well that other natural and human influences are at work in the Arctic.
New research, by scientists from the University of Washington and NASA's Jet propulsion Lab, have now discovered that freshwater from several large Russian rivers is being relocated to certain regions in the Arctic that allows other regions to be more vulnerable to increased sea ice melt. The force that is redirecting freshwater is not human CO2 but instead nature's own Arctic Oscillation.
This latest research confirms that any speculation of human CO2 emissions being the major cause of sea ice melting is likely very wrong. (image source)
"A hemisphere-wide phenomenon – and not just regional forces – has caused record-breaking amounts of freshwater to accumulate in the Arctic’s Beaufort Sea"..."Frigid freshwater flowing into the Arctic Ocean from three of Russia’s mighty rivers was diverted hundreds of miles to a completely different part of the ocean in response to a decades-long shift in atmospheric pressure associated with the phenomenon called the Arctic Oscillation"..."In the Eurasian Basin, the change means less freshwater enters the layer known as the cold halocline and could be contributing to declines in ice in that part of the Arctic...The cold halocline normally sits like a barrier between ice and warm water that comes into the Arctic from the Atlantic Ocean. Without salt the icy cold freshwater is lighter, which is why it is able to float over the warm water...In the Beaufort Sea, the water is the freshest it’s been in 50 years of record keeping, he said. The new findings show that only a tiny fraction is from melting ice and the vast majority is Eurasian river water."
New peer reviewed study by James Hansen of NASA / GISS measures recent ocean heat content and his data indicates insignificant warming - thus, oceans by year 2100 will not warm much
Read here. Willis Eschenbach does the number crunching on the Hansen et al 2011 analysis that earth has a serious energy imbalance, and this "imbalance" is represented by an ocean warming equivalent of 0.54 W/m2 of energy over the period of 2005 - 2010.
Now, +0.54 W/m2 sounds like a very serious energy imbalance indeed until one translates what that means in degrees Celsius of ocean warming, then projecting that "warming" out to year 2100. That is exactly what Willis's number crunching did and he discovered that based on Hansen's "serious" energy imbalance that oceans will warm by a laughable and by a barely measurable amount of:
+0.15C degree by 2100 AD
Above is the formula that Willis used to convert the "serious" imbalance into actual degrees warming
Adjacent, is an Excel representation of calculations done by Willis. (click to enlarge)
You can download this 'C3' Excel file to examine/play with the calcs. (If you find an error in our representation of Willis's work, please email us.)
Ben Santer & James Hansen have long been declaring that global warming was accelerating from human CO2 - instead, the real facts reveals their incompetence
Santer and Hansen are two climate modelers that have been spectacularly wrong for so long that it's even painful for skeptics to witness. These two have been cluck-clucking forever about how CO2 levels were causing accelerating and irreversible global warming, with some climate "disruption" thrown in to scare the politicians and policymakers.
However, as the actual empirical evidence through November 2011 reveals, it is highly unlikely that either of these "scientists" could find his own ass with his hands. Even using Santer's own preferred 17-year analysis span (chart on left), it is clear that global warming is insignificant and likely moving towards a cooling phase.
The chart on right shows the climate model abomination that NASA and Hansen base their predictions on. The level of climate science incompetence is mind-boggling. (click on images to enlarge)
The only things Santer and Hansen have managed to succeed at is enrichingthemselves, at the expense of science and the taxpayers.
All the facts, research and evidence establish the true Antarctica reality - the IPCC's "global warming" is not warming and melting the ice sheets
The IPCC and its Climategate maladjusted scientists have long claimed that Antarctica was dangerously warming and predicted its ice sheets were close to catastrophic melting. The only problem with that characterization was its being totally wrong, big-time.
In two previous postings, we discussed how both satellite and thermometer measurements document the extremely cold regions of Antarctic that are covered by ice sheets, and the fact that for the lost 30 years those areas have experienced a slight cooling.
Read here. Adding to the known empirical evidence is the experiences of one of the world's topmost polar scientists, Heinrich Miller. This man is not a climate-model or computer-simulation jock; he is a field scientist who conducts his research in the polar extremes. What does he say about Antarctica?
"Here almost nothing has changed. At least not near the surface. The average annual temperatures have remained the same. There are of course large fluctuations from year to year. If anything over the last 30 years we have a slight cooling trend. And this flies in the face of what is always immediately claimed: ‘The climate is warming and the Antarctic is melting’.”
Read here. The alarmists at the IPCC and 'Big Green' like to point to the gigantic icebergs produced by Antarctica as proof that global warming is directly melting the polar continent with high temperatures. Unfortunately for the alarmists though, research by polar experts have determined the iceberg calving to be a normal condition, happening with regular frequency. Whether its deep warm ocean currents melting floating ice shelfs or the remnants of a far away tsunami, huge icebergs are a natural result.
"Despite what many alarmists will say, humans had nothing to do with the PIG's latest iceberg extravaganza. The events about to unfold on the bottom of the world are, in fact, all natural and have happened countless times before. You see, NASA researchers say this latest iceberg is part of a natural cycle seen every 10 years or so on this particular glacier..."ocean measurements near Antarctica’s Pine Island Glacier showed that the ice shelf buttressing the glacier was melting rapidly. This melting was attributed to the presence of relatively warm, deep water on the Amundsen Sea continental shelf."...Satellite photos show huge icebergs were created when the remains of the Japanese tsunami hit the Sulzberger Ice Shelf..."The impact of the tsunami and its train of following dispersed waves... in combination with the ice-shelf and sea-ice conditions provided the fracture mechanism needed to trigger the first calving event from the ice shelf in 46 years,”"
Read here. Finally, climate scientist Eric Steig and his research team have determined that the natural conditions and phases of tropical Pacific waters are the real cause of Antarctica's coastal glaciers' melting.
"He [Steig] noted that sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific last showed significant warming in the 1940s, and the impact in the Amundsen Sea area then was probably comparable to what has been observed recently. That suggests that the 1940s tropical warming could have started the changes in the Amundsen Sea ice shelves that are being observed now...He emphasized that natural variations in tropical sea-surface temperatures associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation play a significant role."
Despite all the research, the recognized experts and empirical evidence though, the IPCC and Climategate's Josefino Comiso are already attempting to smother the facts and truth about Antarctica in the next IPCC report, AR5. Will this level of UN sponsored climate science misinformation eventually rise to the moniker of PolarGate?
IPCC 'lead author' Josefino Comiso suppresses peer-reviewed research that completely discredited his previous "Antarctica is warming" study
Read here and here. The IPCC is continuing its tradition of fraudulent bogus climate science for the 2013 climate report by utilizing Climategate-style scientists that excel in global warming fabrication and suppressing research that challenges the blatant fabrication.
As the recent Climategate2.0 emails reveal, research conspiracy, science fraud bogosity and science process malfeasance is alive and flourishing within the IPCC community.
How about this interesting example?
Josefino Comiso is a co-author of the infamous Steig et al. research that attempted to take real warming in the Antarctica Peninsula area and then magically spread it to the rest of Antarctica using rather bizarre techniques. A team of statistical and mathematics experts closely analyzed Comiso's work and found the expanded warming of Antarctica to be entirely bogus based solely on the work's bad math and bad statistical methodology.
"Jeff Id has an excellent post on IPCC AR5 use of the highly flawed Steig et al 2009. Despite Steig’s efforts to block the publication of O’Donnell et al 2010, O2010 shows clearly that whatever is new in Steig et al 2009 is not only incorrect, but an artifact of flawed math and whatever is valid was already known."
The team of math/stats experts, O'Donnell et al., published peer-research that establishes, without any scientific doubt, that Steig et al. was literally garbage science, and that warming for the majority of Antarctica was irrelevant to nil.
"When S09 came out, the Authors tried to discuss the Western continent warming only at Real Climate – the continental plot was entirely red though. Crack cocaine for advocates. A huge media blitz ensued proclaiming the warming of the entire continent. Questions arose in the Real Climate thread about the warming pole right away and were dismissed as not important. Objective people knew the now blindingly obvious truth that the red continent had to be an artifact of flawed math. No scientist can accept that plot without question and our initial skepticism was proven out in a prominent journal. True to climategate form, as the IPCC chapters continue to be leaked out, we can see the widespread attempt to ignore O[Donnell et al.]10 and use the incorrect warming caused by math errors of S09 to claim that the Antarctic is in danger of melting – even though it is not."
In fact, the gold-standard and leading edge technology in temperature measurement, satellites, has Antarctica very slightly cooling since 1978, as the above chart depicts. (click on to enlarge)
Antarctica is not warming, nor is it melting. And note that atmospheric CO2 emissions (black dots in chart) have had absolutely no impact on the regional temperatures of Antarctica.
Despite the overwhelming empirical evidence and the complete peer-reviewed refutation of Comiso's Antarctica research, the IPCC chose to put him in charge of the chapter dealing with the Antarctica analysis for the next IPCC report. And the result?
Comiso appears to be suppressing the the peer-reviewed research that refutes his god-awful science, the actual satellite empirical evidence, and ignoring 99.9% of all scientists who know that CO2 is not causing warming/melting in Antarctica.
99.9% ??? The vast majority of scientists look at the above chart and instantly know that the Antarctica warming scare pushed by Comiso is a fabrication - like much of the IPCC "science" the public and policymakers are now identifying as a fabrication. Other than a handful of alarmist Climategate related scientists, no reputable scientist rejects the real Antarctica empirical evidence of 30+ years of slight cooling.
Predicted warming of continental U.S. by climate "experts" is proven to be robustly wrong
As the Climategate2.0 emails continue to establish, the alarmist climate scientists claiming "unprecedented" and "accelerating" global warming actually can't find either. When examining the global temperature trends, it is clear that global warming has actually been missing for the last 15 years. This has definitely been the case of the continental U.S., as the graph on the left depicts. (click on to enlarge)
And, as the chart on the right depicts, this "global cooling" of the U.S continues in spite of growing CO2 emissions. Human CO2 emissions continue to grow at a business-as-usual pace with a record set in 2010 for the largest emissions ever.
The NOAA/NCDC chart on the left represents the 15 years (180 months), starting December 1, 1996 and ending November 30, 2011. Per these latest U.S. official temperature data records, the 12-month period ending November was the 5th coldest November-ending period for the last 15 years.
In terms of a single month, November 2011 was the 25th warmest since 1895 (November 1999 was the warmest).
The per century cooling trend of this period, a minus 4.6°F, took place despite the huge warmth produced by two large El Niño events during this 15-year span: 1997-1998 and 2009-2010.
For the 10-year period ending November 2011 (December 1, 2001 thru November, 2011 - 120 months), the cooling trend accelerates to a very significant minus 8.9°F per century rate - again, per the updated NOAA/NCDC temperature records.
Please note: The linear temperature trend, as shown in the NOAA chart, is not a prediction.
The climate models used by IPCC are incapable of predicting sea surface temperatures (global warming) with any reliability
Read here. Utilizing climate agency provided data and the commonly installed computer spreadsheet program called Excel, Bob Tisdale does a thorough analysis of ocean temperatures and climate model predictions. In a nutshell, Bob's comparative analysis clearly shows how worthless the climate models truly are.
(As an aside, from the Climategate2.0 emails we learn that the top IPCC scientists are so busy plotting and conspiring against other scientists they don't have the time to learn this powerful analytical tool called Excel. This may explain why the IPCC is so clueless about the robust failures of climate models, no?)
The above charts (click to enlarge) produced by Tisdale show both the Northern and Southern hemisphere actual sea surface temperatures (blue). The charts include the IPCC's climate model projection (red) for the last 17 years. As can be seen, the reality of sea surface temperatures and global warming is significantly different than what the IPCC's climate models predicted.
Per the climate models, the projected warming by 2100 is 5 times greater than the trend based on reality in the Southern Hemisphere and approximately 3 times greater for the Northern Hemisphere. This level of climate model error truly makes the IPCC projections worthless even for decadal periods, let alone for year 2100.
Yet, despite the obvious model failure, climate scientists whose financial security is dependent on the taxpayer dole continue to claim in public that climate model projections are accurate, if not the holy gospel of climate science. In private though, the Climategate2.0 emails indicate that climate scientists have little regard for the billion dollar climate model failures.
Welcome to the world of UN-IPCC climate science corruption.
The United Nations bureaucrats & its Climagegate scientists continue pushing the big lies of man-made global warming and climate change
It has been well documented, and agreed to by the vast majority of climate scientists, that global warming has subsided since 1996. This has occurred despite the large increase in CO2 levels; and, of course, despite the prognostications of the UN's Climategate-savant "scientists" who apparently spend most of their research time and monies plotting against other scientists than doing actual science.
With the recent publication of October 2011 HadCRUT global temperatures (the IPCC's gold-standard), it is again confirmed by the empirical evidence that global warming is not driven by atmospheric levels of CO2, which means that the feared climate change is not being driven by man-made CO2 emissions either.
Climate Models Vs. Reality
15 Years - October 2011
17 Years - October 2011
As the above charts reveal, the United Nation's Durban climate conference claims that human CO2 emissions are causing unprecedented, unequivocal and accelerating warming (ie. climate change) are nothing more than fabricated, robust lies. The left most chart plots actual global temperatures (HadCRUT and GISS) versus the predicted outcomes of one of the preeminent climate models. (click on each image to enlarge)
The middle chart plots global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels over the most recent 15 years ending October 2011. The chart on the right is same data plotted but for the 17-year span ending October 2011 (some Climategate scientists insist an extra 2 years makes all the difference when speaking of global warming). The polynomial fitted curves on these two charts indicate that global warming is becoming cooling, and at most, global warming is projected to be less than 1 degree by 2100.
And, as these charts reveal, clearly the IPCC's favored climate models are significantly wrong by orders of magnitude that smack of total incompetence. The UN's anti-scientific claims of global warming, repeated by political hacks like of Al Gore, Obama and Jon Huntsman, are meritless lies designed to push the agenda of global governance favored by the elites, the wealthy and the corporate special interests.
The lies that perpetuate the global warming and climate change hysteria exhibited by Durban conferees are both insidous and never-ending (note the most recent release of Climategate emails). These lies emanate from the bowels of the UN's IPCC and its senior climate "scientists" with no shame or remorse.
"OK, so you are a serial liar. Like I said, I’ve made my peace with that. It used to rankle me, but not any more. I just accepted that you can’t be trusted and I moved on. I do have compassion for you, Dr. Jones. None of you guys set out to do the ugly things you ended up doing. You all got caught by Noble Cause Corruption, by the vision of being smarter than everyone else and of being the only people standing between us and global destruction. It’s heady, treacherous stuff...I have been a victim of that same self-delusion myself. I understand the sweet seduction that arises from the conviction that your mission is of vital, crucial importance to the whole planet."
Global warming agenda of elites becomes a major fail...empirical evidence does not support CO2 climate change hypothesis.
Read here. The world's science community is slowly but surely coming to the same conclusion as global warming skeptics: the UN's IPCC is nothing more than political propaganda devoted to the anti-empirical science of big green special interest groups/lobbyists.
The team of climate researchers, Fang et al., came to the following conclusions after an exhaustive review of the IPCC's "consensus" climate science:
"...with regard to the IPCC claim that "the increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (including CO2) is the driving force for climate warming," they note the following four problems:
(1) "it remains unclear how the human and natural factors, especially the aerosols, affect the global temperature change,"
(2) "over the past century, the temperature change has not always been consistent with the change of CO2 concentration," since "for several periods, global temperatures decreased or were stable while the atmospheric CO2 concentration continuously increased,"
(3) "there is no significant correlation between the annual increment of the atmospheric CO2 concentration and the annual anomaly of annual mean temperature," and
(4) "the observed significant increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration may not be totally attributable to anthropogenic emissions because there are great uncertainties in the sources of CO2 concentration in [the] atmosphere." [JingYun Fang, JiangLing Zhu, ShaoPeng Wang, Chao Yue and HaiHua Shen 2011: Science China Earth Sciences]
Unfortunately, the establishmentapparatchiks are still wasting their time and untold billions on a political agenda, based on a failed global warming theory and climate change denial of reality, while real problems go unresolved.
Read here. It is well documented that the IPCC's climate "experts" (software programmers) inserted a very high (unproven) CO2 climate sensitivity into the computer climate models. For PR propaganda purposes, the IPCC's climate simulations then foretold a future climate of potentially high temperatures due to the mysterious "tipping point."
As this typical climate model prediction chart reveals though, there is an obvious real-time problem with the IPCC programmers' assumption that the climate is highly sensitive to high levels of atmospheric CO2.
New peer-reviewed research has found that the IPCC's climate models are wrong, and the prediction of "accelerating" global warming due high climate sensitivity is wrong. The research confirms previousstudiesthat the projected future tipping point climate conditions were falsehoods. The actual science again proves global warming skeptics to be correct and, more robustly, that anti-science global warming alarmists, such as Chris Mooney, to be...well...er...pathological liars, exaggerators hysteria-loving alarmists who ignore climate reality.
Much to the major chagrin of climate alarmists everywhere, the Schmittner et al. team conclude that an approximate global temperature increase of 2.5 degrees is a much more likely outcome than the over-inflated 5.0 degrees publicized by the IPCC. This new finding makes the upcoming IPCC's the-world-is-melting convention in Durban, South Africa the penultimate farce.
"There is word circulating that a paper soon to appear in Science magazine concludes that the climate sensitivity—how much the earth’s average temperature will rise as a result of a doubling of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide—likely (that is, with a 66% probability) lies in the range 1.7°C to 2.6°C, with a median value of 2.3°C....In the new paper, the authors find only “vanishing probabilities” for a climate sensitivity value greater than 3.2°C and that values greater than 6.0°C are “implausible.”...results join a growing number of papers published in recent years which, by employing investigations of the earth’s paleoclimate behavior (that is, how the earth’s temperature changes in the past when subject to changing climate forcings) have come to somewhat similar conclusions..." [Schmittner, A., et al., 2011: Science]
Temperature data source here. Carbon chart source here. (click on images to enlarge)
Climate reality keeps defying (mocking?) the IPCC's Climategate scientists. When examining the global temperature trends, it is clear that global warming has actually been missing for the last 15 years. This has definitely been the case of the continental U.S., as the graph on the left depicts.
And, as the chart on the right depicts, this "global cooling" of the U.S continues in spite of the world's ten worst accelerating CO2 emitters (below the red line) over the last two years. The countries increasing their CO2 emissions the most are: South Africa (home of Durban), Egypt, Brazil, Vietnam, Iran, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, India and China.
The NOAA/NCDC chart represents the 15 years (180 months), starting November 1, 1996 and ending October 31, 2011. Per these latest U.S. official temperature data records, the 12-month period ending October was the 5th coldest October-ending period for the last 15 years.
In terms of a single month, October 2011 was the 33rd warmest since 1895 (October 1963 was the warmest).
The per century cooling trend of this period, a minus 3.7°F, took place despite the huge warmth produced by two large El Niño events during this 15-year span: 1997-1998 and 2009-2010.
For the 10-year period ending October 2011 (November 1, 2001 thru October, 2011 - 120 months), the cooling trend accelerates to a very significant minus 10.6°Fper century rate - again, per the updated NOAA/NCDC temperature records.
Please note: These linear temperature trends, as shown in the NOAA chart, are not predictions.
The above temperature reconstructions of satellite measurements are as of the end of October 2011. The white areas of each (land, sea and air) represent zero to insignificant temperature cooling/warming; yellow-orange-red colors represent warming; and the blueish areas represent cooling. (click on images to enlarge)
Clearly, what the world's best scientific-based technology tells us is that global warming is not "unequivocal" as most IPCC Climategate scientists robustly claim. In fact, as has been well documented by numerous studies, including BEST, significant warming has been basically absent for some 15 years, which has caused great befuddlement for the IPCC's climate "scientists."
At any point in time, at anyplace on the globe, there could be significant warming, while significant cooling is simultaneously happening at another locale, and both can be associated with vast regional areas of insignificant temperature change. When speaking of "unequivocal" global warming, there is no such thing.
One would think this needless to say, but it seems necessary: the IPCC's unequivocal climate liars would do all of science, the world, and the policymakers a huge service if the lies of "unequivocal," "accelerating," and "unprecedented" global warming were eliminated from the public discourse. These are propaganda terms that the objective empirical evidence robustly refutes.
If that were to happen, it would become increasingly difficult to accurately label scientists as "unequivocal" liars.
Read here. The Climategate scandal was the door opening that revealed a cadre of IPCC "scientists" conspiring to push their rendition of crop circle pseudoscience. A key component of that effort was the infamous "hockey-stick" that purported to show modern era temperatures to be unprecedented, and the climates of the Medieval Warming (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) to be minor blips of no significance. The IPCC's crop circle scientists also claimed that the MWP and LIA only existed in the small regional area of the north Atlantic/European geography. Subsequent studies and a mountain of empirical evidence refutes the IPCC pseudoscience.
A new peer-reviewed paper by Bertler et al., using the latest deuterium and temperature-isotope science, constructed temperatures going back 1,100 years. The new temperature dataset (see adjacent chart - click to enlarge) clearly shows the LIA in Antarctica to be massively cooler than modern temperatures; the dataset establishes that the modern warming is not "unprecedented" as the MWP is slightly warmer.
"The researchers obtained new deuterium (δD) data from the Ross Sea region of Antarctica that they acquired via analysis of the top fifty meters of a 180-meter-long ice core that had been extracted from the ice divide of Victoria Lower Glacier...work revealed three climatically-distinct time periods: the last 150 years of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, AD 1140 to 1287), the Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 1288 to 1807), and the Modern Era (ME, AD 1808 to 2000)...authors report that "the final 150 yrs of the MWP were ... about 0.35 °C warmer than the ME,"" [N.A.N. Bertler, P.A. Mayewski, L. Carter 2011: Earth and Planetary Science Letters]
Read here and here. The below cartoon by Josh is perfect. The prominent and famous climate alarmist scientists are just besides themselves in their attempts to deal with the disappearance of the hypothetical CO2-induced global warming.
The growth of infighting among the UN's favored climate scientists confirms the obvious - human CO2 emissions are not producing the alarmists' infamous "accelerating" warming, and CO2 is not the cause of whatever climate change that they believe is actually taking place.
More importantly, a major, well known climate scientist's comments regarding her reflections about famous alarmist scientists is simply stunning. Dr. Judith Curry (JC) has her say......(let's hope she has irrevocable tenure)
Kevin Trenberth: "The hiatus [in warming] was not unexpected." JC question for Kevin Trenberth: "Please remind me of when you first thought there would be a hiatus in the warming."
Susan Solomon: “What’s really been exciting to me about this last 10-year period is that it has made people think about decadal variability much more carefully than they probably have before,”. JC message to Susan Solomon: "maybe you should have been listening to what the skeptics have been saying for the last several decades."
John Daniel: “We make a mistake, anytime the temperature goes up, you imply this is due to global warming,” he said. “If you make a big deal about every time it goes up, it seems like you should make a big deal about every time it goes down.” JC comment: "Well somebody had to finally say this, thank you John Daniel."
Ben Santer: “This no-warming-since-1998 discussion has prompted people to think about the why and try to understand the why,” Santer said. “But it’s also prompted people to correct these incorrect claims.” JC comment: "Too bad this didn’t prompt Santer and others to wonder how much further along we would all be in understanding this if they had paid some attention to the skeptics."
Judith Lean: Climate models failed to reflect the sun’s cyclical influence on the climate and “that has led to a sense that the sun isn’t a player,” Lean said. “And that they have to absolutely prove that it’s not a player.” JC summary: "Well thank you IPCC authors for letting us know what is really behind that “very likely” assessment of attribution 20th century warming. A lot of overbloated over confidence that cannot survive a few years of cooling. The light bulbs seem to be just turning on in your heads over the last two years. Think about all the wasted energy fighting the “deniers” when they could have been listening, trying to understand their arguments, and making progress to increase our understanding of the causes of climate variability and change."
As they say, read the whole thing(s), here and here.
Last week the BEST research team released their findings in regards to land surface temperatures. The BEST data matched up very closely with the IPCC's gold standard, the HadCRUT land temps sub-dataset. In summary, the Berkeley study had a few key points, including:
BEST results found one-third of climate stations report a cooling, not a warming
BEST determined that government maintained temperature-station quality is "awful"
BEST found that the urban impact on global land temperatures is minimal
BEST concluded that the human influence on land temperatures may be overestimated
BEST concluded that land temperatures may be driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - a decadal phenomenon
Since the BEST land surface results were so similar to the Hadley and CRU efforts, it is highly probable that the future BEST research will closely mimic the HadCRUT3 global temperature dataset as shown above in the chart on the left.
The latest HadCRUT dataset report (released today, 10/28/2011) through September 2011 reveals a very insignificant warming over the last 15 years, with zero correlation to increasing CO2 levels. The global HadCRUT linear trend if projected out means a total global temperature increase of +0.3 degrees by year 2100.
The chart on the right tracks the HadCRUT and GISS global temperature anomalies versus the NASA climate model prediction of global temperatures due to CO2 emissions. It is obvious, that the climate models are stupendously wrong in their estimate of the temperature impact of human CO2 emissions - if the models were correct, the HadCRUT and GISS temperature anomalies would resemble Hansen's 'green' curve. (Note: Climate predictions from the IPCC, its models and its experts are consistently wrong.)
Based on this most recent temperature and CO2 information, one can safely assume that the BEST researchers are no dummies.....that would explain their hedging comments that the human influence is 'overestimated' and that natural decadal oscillations may be driving temperatures instead of human CO2 emissions.
Read here. The climate alarmism bozos/bimbos brigade (Al Gore, Kevin Trenberth, John Cook, Joe Romm, Heidi Cullen, Bill McKibben, Michael Mann, Bill Nye, Jeff Masters and etc.) has claimed that past severe winter conditions were the result of CO2-induced global warming. They did so without a sliver of scientific proof nor empirical evidence.
As the general public deduced, the brigade's claim that extreme winter conditions are being caused by "global warming" is a complete crock. And to the major chagrin of the likes of Kevin Trenberth, the climate modelers are now pointing their collective fingers at the real culprit - the sun. Losing the public and climate/solar science debate both - Ouch!
The team of Ineson et al. determined that a strong solar signal (positive or negative) will cause significant changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation. The NAO change produces affects on the winter circulation patterns resulting in a dearth or abundance of Northern Hemisphere severe winter storms. Using climate models, they established a firm relationship between solar maximum/minimum and the change in the NAO.
"A research team...primarily made up of scientists from the U.K.’s Hadley Centre Met Office have identified a fairly strong solar signal in Northern Hemisphere winter circulation patterns which are manifest over Europe and the eastern United States. According to their modeling studies, the difference in the amount of incoming solar radiation, in this case, primarily in the ultraviolet (UV) wavelengths, during the minima and maxima of the 11-yr solar cycle are large enough to produce a characteristic change in the winter circulation pattern of the atmosphere over North America...When the NAO is in its negative phase, more cold air can seep south from the Arctic and impact the lower latitudes of Europe and the eastern U.S., which helps spin up winter storm systems. For instance, during the “snowmageddon” winter of 2009/2010, the NAO was at a near record low value..."Given our modelling result, these cold winters were probably exacerbated by the recent prolonged and anomalously low solar minimum. On decadal timescales the increase in the NAO from the 1960s to 1990s…may also be partly explained by the upwards trend in solar activity evident in the open solar-flux record…."" [Sarah Ineson, Adam A. Scaife, Jeff R. Knight, James C. Manners, Nick J. Dunstone, Lesley J. Gray, Joanna D. Haigh 2011: Nature Geoscience]
Ben 'call-me-violent' Santer is a Climategate-style scientist whose ethical compass normally does not read true very well. Despite these less than desired personal characteristics as a scientist, Ben pursues climate science with great vigor, producing results that are very interesting, to say the least. His most recent research is a perfect example.
Benjie et al. has determined, through an unprecedented and a most robust, vigorous research effort, that one only needs 17 years to determine the human-CO2 impact on global temperatures.
Using this new Santer 17-year rule, the below atmospheric temperatures, per the NASA satellite, have increased modestly, suggesting a non-catastrophic increase of only 1.27 degrees by January 1, 2100.
And, using this new 17-year rule, the actual ocean temperatures have barely increased in the recent past. If this linear ocean temperature trend continued, a 0.74 degrees of less than robust warming can be expected by January 1, 2100.
And, using this new 17-year rule, the global temperatures have slightly increased since July 2004. Expanding on this global data, the underlying linear trend points to an insignificant, minor 0.85 degree increase in global temperatures by January 1, 2100 - certainly not the runaway, catastrophic global warming as predicted by the IPCC, and the likes of Santer.
These 3 charts provide some very valuable insights: one, recent past warming is realistically a non-issue; two, the future warming, based on known trends, is also likely to be a non-issue; and, three, increasing CO2 levels have little impact on global temperatures.
Regarding the last point, the 17-year r^2 statistical measurement for each of the above graphs indicates the extreme lameness of the CO2 and warming relationship. Using an Excel formula, the r^2 for CO2 and satellite temperatures is just 0.136; for CO2 and ocean temperatures it is 0.135; and, for global CO2 and global temperatures it is only 0.133.
These ludicrously low r^2 statistical measurements reveal an indisputable truth: CO2 levels probably have only little influence on global temperatures.
And, to add even more misery to global warming alarmists, such as Santer et al., the light blue Excel fitted (polynomial) curve for each chart suggests that temperature increases are definitely decelerating over the most recent 17-year span, in spite of the growing CO2 levels. In terms of visual interpretation, each chart does appear to point to a possible cooling phase in the near future.
Read here. Santer et al. 2011 research supposedly determines that at least 17 years of data is required to "measure" humans' impact on the climate. Not 15 years, not 16, not 18, not 19, not 20, but most assuredly, their cherry-picked 17-year span is the new gold-standard.
"Our results show that temperature records of at least 17 years in length are required for identifying human effects on global-mean tropospheric temperature."
Soooo, what does 17 years of HadCRUT global temperatures and CO2 levels look like versus the previous 'C3' 15-year data plot? Good question!
Using 17 years (204 months) worth of data through the end of July 2011, the plot on the left reveals that global warming since August 1994 is rather modest and non-existent since 1998.
The linear trend from this 17-year span indicates that global temperatures will be only 0.85°C higher by January 1, 2100. The light blue fitted curve suggests that global temperatures are actually moving towards a cooling period, not a warming. The grey fitted curve for CO2 keeps to a linear path ("business as usual") it has long had.
Let's identify what human CO2 impacts (past, present and future) have had on the climate per this 17-year period:
This 17-year gold-standard, blessed by the holier than thou team of Santer et cohorts, basically confirms that human CO2 emissions have had little, if any, impact on global temperatures.
This 17-year span confirms that future global warming will at most be modest.
This 17-year data confirms what skeptics have been saying for the last 17 years: runaway positive feedback is a fantasy and future global warming is unlikely to be catastrophic.
Since this outcome is probably not what Santer et al. expected from looking at the most recent 17-year span, maybe they ought to retract their study for a major revision. It would seem the 17-year span might need to be changed - damn that pesky empirical evidence!
And btw, 'Dr. B.S. Violence' should apologize to everyone for wasting taxpayer money on what 69% of Americans already know.
Note1 to readers: Go here for 17-year charts for ocean and atmosphere temps.
Note2 to readers: The linear trend that produces 0.85°C by 2100 is not a prediction. Actual global temperatures may be higher or lower. No one knows for sure. Most importantly, as this 17-year evidence indicates, current climate models are completely clueless as to future temperatures.
Read here. The climate models, based on the IPCC's favored CO2-based AGW theory, predict that oceans will warm as the atmosphere warms from human CO2 emissions. Indeed, human emissions have continued to increase over the past decade but the empirical evidence clearly shows ocean temperatures have not, with declining temperatures a recent phenomenon that may continue.
There is not a single IPCC climate prediction that foretold a decade long non-warming of Earth's oceans. In fact, the "consensus" models predicted the exact opposite. The evidence is robustly inconsistent with IPCC climate "experts" and their CO2-centric climate models.
NASA annual temperature anomaly data for oceans since 2001 through 2010.
Satellite monthly temperature anomalies for oceans since 2002 through August 2011.
NOAA's NOMAD ocean monthly temperature anomalies since 1981 through July 2011.
James Hansen, and his team at NASA, predicted significant global warming (the green curve - Scenario 'A') if human CO2 emissions continued their existing growth path. They have.
The actual warming evidence though, does not comport with NASA's climate models. Per both the GISS and HadCRUT temperature datasets, global warming (black and red curves) are at, or below, the predicted values if CO2 emissions growth had been eliminated (the aqua curve - Scenario 'C'). That has not happened, based on the evidence through July, 2011.
Read here and here. There is ampleempirical evidence that the feared CO2-caused global warming predicted by the IPCC and climate "experts" has been dramatically fading over the last 15 years. And there is plenty of ongoing anecdotal evidence of global cooling in the past few years.
Add Wellington, New Zealand and Mt. Ranier, Washington to the anecdotal evidence list. And don't forget about Ireland's and Germany's cold summer.
Read here. Droughts are a frequent visitor to the southwest U.S. and Mexico regions. The current drought that this area is experiencing is bad but in no way is it as extreme as the droughts that took place during the Medieval era.
As the chart reveals, both the Medieval and modern periods share a characteristic of high incoming solar irradiance. With the increase of incoming solar energy, the result is time spans of frequent and more intense droughts. These more extreme droughts occur naturally and have nothing to do with greenhouse gases, including CO2 emissions.
There are some scientists who predict we are entering a stage where 60-year droughts, like those during the Medieval Period, could occur but no one knows for sure. If solar irradiance falls (as it seems to be doing most recently), the modern drought cycle may end.
Woodhouse et al. published this 1,200 year perspective of Southwestern North America droughts:
"The medieval period was characterized by widespread and regionally severe, sustained drought in western North America. Proxy data documenting drought indicate centuries-long periods of increased aridity across the central and western U.S...The recent drought, thus far, pales hydrologically in comparison... Spatially, the mid-12th century drought covers all of the western U.S. and northern Mexico...whereas the 21st century drought has not impacted parts of the Pacific Northwest...The 21st century drought has lasted about a decade so far, whereas the 12th century medieval drought persisted with an extent and severity...for two decades, 1140–1159 [AD]...In both instrumental and paleoclimatic records, periods of sustained drought in the Southwest have often been concurrent with elevated temperatures. The warmest such episode, in the mid-12th century, was more extensive and much more persistent than any modern drought experienced to date..." [Connie A. Woodhouse, David M. Meko, Glen M. MacDonald, Dave W. Stahle, Edward R. Cooke 2009: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences]
Read here. (h/t Tom Nelson) It's another case where "global" is not so global when it comes to warming. All scientists now concur with the empirical evidence that in the Southern Hemisphere, over the last 15 years, global warming has gone missing. Now a new analysis says it's been missing in New Zealand for the last 100 years.
Using robust, compliant statistical techniques, scientists analyzed the New Zealand temperature dataset. Their findings:
"When corrected with accepted scientific techniques, the official New Zealand Temperature Record (NZTR) shows that there has been no measurable change in mean temperatures during 1909-2009...“This study generally follows in the footsteps of NIWA’s NZTR Review, released last December, except in one vital aspect” said Coalition chairman, Barry Brill, “The difference is that we have scrupulously followed the statistical techniques described in the scientific literature, while NIWA did not.”...The historical data shows a warming rate of 0.29°C per century, while the corrected figure is 0.26°C per century. But both amounts are within the margins of error, and are effectively zero."
Read here. As the dotted trend line indicates on this German temperature chart, "global warming" is not so happening in Germany. The same is likely true for a number of nearby central European states.
And, to add to the AGW-alarmist scientists misery, and as most 'C3' readers are aware, "global warming" in the U.S. has actually been global cooling over the last 15 years, according to NOAA temperature datasets.
The fact that majors areas of the globe are cooling explains why warming has been trivial over the last 15 years, across the world. The lack of massive warming is a significant invalidation of the AGW hypothesis and runs counter to every major climate model based on the assumption that the climate in incredibly sensitive to human CO2 emissions.
Despite the hundreds of billions spent on these models and associated taxpayer expenditures on AGW research, the evidence is now conclusive that they are unable to predict accurately.
The HadCRUT monthly anomalies were just updated through June 2011. Below are two relevant charts: one indicating the failure of NASA's climate model predictions; and, the other chart revealing the lack of global warming.